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Begin New Search Political Geography China Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 25 Years

881. Explaining the Energy Consumption Portfolio in a Cross-Section of Countries: Are the BRICs Different?

Author:
David M. Arseneau
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper uses disaggregated data from a broad cross-section of countries to empirically assess differences in energy consumption profiles across countries. We find empirical support for the energy ladder hypothesis, which contends that as an economy develops it transits away from a heavier reliance on traditional fuel sources towards an increase in the use of modern commercial energy sources. We also find empirical support for the hypothesis that structural transformation--the idea that as an economy matures, it transforms away from agriculture-based activity into industrial activity and, finally, fully matures into a service-oriented economy--is an important driver for the distribution of end-use energy consumption. However, even when these two hypotheses are taken into account, we continue to find evidence suggesting that the patterns of energy consumption in the BRIC economies are importantly different from those of other economies.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Services, and BRIC
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

882. The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Author:
Brett Berger and Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Chinese exports have boomed, increasing far faster than GDP growth. What can account for this explosion? Our paper uses finely detailed Chinese export data (8-digit HS codes) combined with U.S. trade data to explore this question. Although exchange rate policy clearly boosted the trade surplus, and the structure of the economy, e.g. abundant cheap labor, encouraged investment, these alone cannot account for the changing composition and acceleration of exports. We find that the growth in exports is most likely a product of effective Chinese industrial policy and fortuitous timing. The detailed trade data reveal that key “new” technology goods, such as cell phones, LCD screens, and laptops played a critical role. Finally, we use the data to examine the relationship between Chinese exports and global manufacturing, in particular U.S. manufacturing employment. We find that increased Chinese competition in both domestic and U.S. export markets likely lowered U.S. manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2007. Chinese policy is not, however, wholly responsible. Some job losses, such as in textile production, were no doubt the result of China’s natural comparative advantages, while other U.S. job losses are attributable to relatively low investment and slow GDP growth in the United States following the 2001 recession.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

883. Global Energy Markets in a Time of Political Change

Author:
Bill White
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
A shift in relative energy consumption among regions and the development of new, unconventional supplies will be the most significant changes over the next twenty years. The dominant fuels in the world energy market until 2030 will continue to be hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and natural gas. Major shifts will occur, however, among the three fuels, among regions and in their supply. Globally, oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel as it supplies more than 90 percent of the energy for transportation. Coal, now the dominant fuel used for electric power generation, will lose ground to natural gas, a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon. Natural gas will become the second largest overall supplier and well positioned to replace coal as the leading supplier for electric power. Developing countries will lead the way in overall energy growth, with Chinese and Indian energy demand growing fastest. Energy demand in developed countries will remain flat. For the United States, growth in gas shale and oil shale are likely to be “game changers,” altering the supply picture dramatically.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

884. Spinning the Wheel: Policy Implications of the Dalai Lama’s Reincarnation

Author:
Julia Famularo
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This study examines the long-running dispute between the Chinese Communist Party and the current Dalai Lama over the issue of his reincarnation. The paper provides a multifaceted analysis of some of the challenges facing the Tibetan spiritual leader and his people. It highlights important historical, political, and cultural aspects of his relationship with regional players as well as his emerging strategic vision for the future. Spinning the Wheel also offers insight into the recent self-immolations and protests that have occurred in ethnographic Tibet.
Topic:
Religion, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Dalai Lama, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Tibet

885. China’s Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) Satellite Developments: Implications for U.S. Air and Naval Operations

Author:
Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
A review of authoritative Chinese writings indicate that the People’s Republic of China is researching, developing, testing, and deploying a number of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites for the tracking and targeting of mobile air defense systems and ships at sea. This program has potentially serious and immediate implications U.S. and allied air and naval operations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, Armed Forces, and Satellite
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

886. China and Pakistan: Emerging Strains in the Entente Cordiale

Author:
Isaac B. Kardon
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Despite perceptions in Washington and New Delhi that China enjoys unique privileges and exercises inordinate influence in Pakistan, Beijing has shown little inclination to directly shape Pakistani behavior. As China’s global portfolio of economic and security interests expands, it is increasingly sensitive to new opportunity costs entailed in sustaining the Sino-Pakistani partnership.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Partnerships, and Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

887. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Signals Intelligence and Cyber Reconnaissance Infrastructure

Author:
Mark Stokes, Jenny Lin, and Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This study offers a tentative baseline for assessing the GSD Third Department, affiliated Technical Reconnaissance Bureaus (TRBs), and supporting research and development organizations. An examination of this organization, its role and function would provide a mosaic with which to better evaluate China‘s signal intelligence and cyber-infrastructure. The data points assembled by this monograph points to an expansive yet stovepiped organization responsible for various facets of technical reconnaissance, including collection of wireless line of sight communications, satellite communications, cyber surveillance, network traffic analysis, network security, encryption and decryption, translation, and political, military, and economic analysis.
Topic:
Intelligence, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Reconnaissance, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

888. Determinants of Economic Growth in BRIC Countries

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel and Iikka Korhonen
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And (c) Does lower institutional quality hinder growth? Results show that while BRIC nations have higher growth, there are significant within-group differences. China and Russia mostly showed higher growth, while India sometimes showed positive growth, and Brazil did not outperform the rest. Policy implications are discussed.
Topic:
Corruption, Economic Growth, Institutions, Exports, and BRIC
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

889. Kim Jong-il’s Visit to China and Its Implications

Author:
Dong Ryul Lee
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il embarked on a secretive trip to China on May 3, 2010. The five day visit was his first to China in four years and his fifth so far. Kim’s recent visit to China does not seem to be that much different from previous summit meetings between North Korea and China. Although North Korea’s nuclear test in 2009 did not provoke a longer than normal suspension in bilateral exchanges, in essence, progress has been made since the resumption of bilateral diplomatic visits in 2000. The key agenda of the recent summit has been consistent with the principle in which China provides economic assistance in exchange for North Korea’s return to the Six-Party Talks. This principle has been the backbone of Beijing’s North Korea policy, which has been in place since the outbreak of the second nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula in 2003. Furthermore, this secretive trip to China looks very similar to Kim Jong-il’s last four visits to China, where he toured the industrial regions that have benefited from China’s economic reform and opening. There has been a lot of controversy and diverse assumptions on the reason for Kim’s visit to China. This is particularly attributable to the complicated and delicate nature of inter-Korean relations even though this China-DPRK summit shares many similarities with those of the past. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the political and security environment of the Korean Peninsula in which Kim Jong-il decided to make such a critical strategic decision to travel to China. The visit and the resulting bilateral summit were a successful conclusion to the longest gap in China-DPRK relations since the revival of bilateral ties at the beginning of 2000. Similarly, this summit carries special meaning considering the current deadlock of the Six-Party Talks that has gone on for the past eighteen months. What is more significant is the fact that Kim Jong-il’s trip immediately followed South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s official visit to China on April 30, amid the escalating tensions in inter-Korean relations over the North Korean torpedo attack on the Cheonan. Moreover, North Korea is facing dire domestic circumstances primarily caused by the health problems of Kim Jong-il, the succession issue, instability following the disastrous currency reform of late 2009, and its failing economy struggling under United Nations sanctions. The fact that the China-DPRK summit took place in such a complex environment indicates that a wide range of current issues were involved and it would have a greater impact for stability on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s actions immediately following the bilateral summit with China should be closely examined as it could help South Korea predict how the Cheonan incident will develop. There were no official reports or any specific details of the conversation available for the public due to the opaque nature of the talk. Therefore, it is necessary to scrutinize as well as analyze any subtle moves by both countries that might reflect any possible major agreements between the two sides. There are three major questions that need to be answered when evaluating this recent summit in China. First, what is the significance of the summit regarding China-DPRK relations and Beijing’s policy toward North Korea? Second, did North Korea and China agree on the North’s return to the Six-Party Talks in exchange for Chinese support for its regime? If so, what is the prospect for the resumption of the Six-Party Talks? Third, what impact will this summit have on ROK-China relations in light of the fact that the summit meeting took place while the South Korean-led international investigation into the cause of the Cheonan sinking was in progress?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

890. From “Primordial” to “Pragmatic” Identity: A Search for Regional Identity in East Asia

Author:
Jun-Seok Kim
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In 2009, two interesting proposals for community building in East Asia were put forward: Kevin Rudd, then serving as Australia’s prime minister, proposed the creation of an Asia Pacific Community (APC) and then-Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama proposed an East Asian Community (EAC). Claiming that Australia should get more deeply involved in Asia, Rudd described his vision of what an APC should look like. Of the most importance, it should be all-embracing. All the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region should take part, including the United States, Australia, Japan, China, South Korea, India, and Indonesia. The APC should also focus on both security and economic issues. In the meantime, Hatoyama, in a New York Times op-ed, came up with the idea of an East Asian Community as the cornerstone of his administration’s Asia policy. While the idea of the EAC was not totally fleshed out, he indicated that the group would include China, Japan, and South Korea as its core members. Hatoyama did not make it clear whether the United States would be invited, although he made no secret of his perception that the era of U.S.-led unilateralism and globalism was coming to an end. In this new period of growing multipolarity, he seemed to believe, it was imperative for Japan to reconceptualize East Asia, the world’s fastest-growing region which now accounts for one quarter of the total GDP of the world, as its own “basic sphere of being.” Prime Minister Hatoyama tried his best not to give the impression that he favored East Asia over the United States (or over the West as a whole). But, it seemed quite obvious that he wanted to see Japan more consciously autonomous from the United States than had been the case under the prolonged rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) governments. What prompted Rudd of Australia and Hatoyama of Japan to propose the creation of Asia Pacific and East Asian communities upon taking office? A probable cause can be found in the shift in relative power, especially between China, Japan, and the United States, that has long been in progress over the last decade. Both Rudd and Hatoyama were aware of this change. Rudd, for instance, explained that global economic and strategic weight was now shifting to Asia. Hatoyama has also conceded that China would surpass Japan in economic size “in the not-too-distant-future.” One might suspect, therefore, that their initiatives were nothing more than temporary expedients designed to cope with the recently changed international environment. That might be the case—or not. But whatever the two leaders’ underlying intent, their initiatives no doubt constituted significant contributions to a series of efforts to bring about community-type regional organizations in East Asia. From 1989 on, when APEC was first created, and especially in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, a succession of regional organizations came into being in East Asia, with the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1993, ASEAN+3 in 1997, and the East Asian Summit (EAS) in 2005 being the most representative. Since the first meeting of the EAS was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 2005, in particular, interest in the possibility of building an East Asian Community has become widespread. Although controversies over the proper geographical scope of such a community remain far from settled, with some countries favoring extensive, elastic membership and others favoring a limited, restrictive one, community-building in East Asia is now looked upon as a goal that is worthy of being pursued for its own sake. Australia’s and Japan’s initiatives, probably spurred by geostrategic considerations and not immediately realizable, will surely strengthen the case for an East Asian Community. At the very least, two initiatives have demonstrated the continued interest in an East Asian Community among politicians and decision-makers of East Asian countries.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Community, and Identity
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea