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702. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms. They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economic convergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
703. Taking off as a Global Power? China's Foreign Policy "Grand Strategy"
- Author:
- Sven Bernhard Gareis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The People's Republic of China has long been a very visible actor in international politics. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, it is the most populous country in the world, with a land mass of 9.6 million square kilometers bordering 14 states in East, South, and Central Asia. China has a long Pacific coastline, along which it claims vast areas of the South China Sea. A nuclear power since 1964, the People's Republic of China has the largest armed forces in the world, numbering approximately 2.3 million soldiers. China has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1971; for many years, it has figured prominently in all decision making processes with global impact.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Central Asia
704. China's impact on conflict and fragility in South Asia
- Author:
- Clare Castillejo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- China is expanding its engagement across South Asia, with significant implications for the region's most fragile states. Western donors and peacebuilding actors are aware of this changing context and concerned about their resulting loss of influence. Yet they have so far failed to develop a coordinated response or to engage effectively with China regarding its impact on fragility within the region.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, Israel, and Asia
705. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?
- Author:
- Leo Abruzzese
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
706. Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China
- Author:
- David E. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent's 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa's geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about the continent's energy future. Onshore and offshore rifts and basins created when the African continent separated from the Americas and Eurasia 150 million years ago are now recognized as some of the most promising hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Offshore Angola and Brazil, Namibia and Brazil, Ghana and French Guyana, Morocco and Mexico, Somalia and Yemen, and Mozambique and Madagascar are just a few of the geological analogues where large oil fields have been discovered or are be-lieved to lie. One optimistic but quite credible scenario is that future discoveries in Africa will be around five timestheir current level based on what remains un-explored on the continent versus currently known sub-soil assets. If proven true, this could have a pro-foundly positive impact on Africa's future growth and strategic position in the global economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, America, Eurasia, Asia, Brazil, Yemen, Mozambique, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, Angola, Ghana, Namibia, Guyana, and Moldavia
707. Crux of Asia: China, India, and the Emerging Global Order
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis and Sean Mirski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The rise of China and India as major world powers promises to test the established global order in the coming decades. As the two powers grow, they are bound to change the current international system—with profound implications for themselves, the United States, and the world. And whether they agree on the changes to be made, especially when it comes to their relationship with the West, will influence the system's future character. A close examination of Chinese and Indian perspectives on the fundamentals of the emerging international order reveals that Sino-Indian differences on many issues of both bilateral and global significance are stark.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and Singapore
708. U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine, Rachel Esplin Odell, Luo Yuan, and Liu Xiangdong
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project's findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
709. China's Policy on North Korea: Economic Engagement and Nuclear Disarmament
- Author:
- Mathieu Duchâtel and Phillip Schell
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the death of Kim Jong Il, in December 2011, the new leadership of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has taken important steps to further develop its nuclear weapon programme and to consolidate the programme's political status. These developments, which culminated in a nuclear test explosion in February 2013, suggest that the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent is a strategic goal, rather than a tactical bargaining chip for North Korea.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
710. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges
- Author:
- James Manicom
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
711. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform
- Author:
- Victoria Christensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become common-place in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United States, China, Tehran, Korea, and Southeast Asia
712. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China
713. Productive Power and Policy Change in Global Finance: An Analysis of China's Financial Policy Framing in the Bretton Woods Institutions
- Author:
- Sandra Heep
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
714. Informal Institutions in Autocracies: Analytical Perspectives and the Case of the Chinese Communist Party
- Author:
- Patrick Köllner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Analyses of the shape and functioning of systems of political rule need to address informal institutions, which exist alongside and can relate to formal institutions in various ways. In this paper, I first discuss some analytical foundations of the study of such institutions. I then suggest that a focus on political regimes – understood as the configuration of formal and informal institutions shaping and reflecting the access to and the exercise of political power – can be particularly useful for analysing the shape and functioning of autocracies. Finally, I use such a regime focus to study the Chinese Communist Party and its leadership succession process, which is characterised by increasing institutionalisation and complementary as well as substitutive relations between formal and informal institutions.
- Topic:
- Communism, Political Economy, Political Theory, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
715. Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kazakhstan has long been viewed from the outside as the most prosperous and stable country in a region widely regarded as fragile and dysfunctional. The appearance of wealth, based largely on the conspicuous consumption of Almaty and Astana, its main cities, and multi-billion-dollar energy contracts – increasingly with China – hides, however, a multitude of challenges. An ageing authoritarian leader with no designated successor, labour unrest, growing Islamism, corruption, and a state apparatus that, when confronted even with limited security challenges, seems hard-pressed to respond, all indicate that the Kazakh state is not as robust as it first appears. Without a significant effort to push forward with repeatedly promised political, social and economic reforms, Kazakhstan risks becoming just another Central Asian authoritarian regime that squandered the advantages bestowed on it by abundant natural resources.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
716. Social Capital and Disaster Recovery: Evidence from Sichuan Earthquake in 2008
- Author:
- Chun Wing Tse, Jianwen Wei, and Yihan Wang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Social capital can help reduce adverse shocks by facilitating access to transfers and remittances.This study examines how various measures of social capital are associated with disaster recovery after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. We find that households having a larger Spring Festival network in 2008 do better in housing reconstruction. A larger network significantly increases the amount of government aid received for housing reconstruction. Furthermore, households having larger networks receive monetary and material support from more people, which also explains the positive impacts on recovery from the earthquake. As for other measures of social capital, connections with government officials and communist party membership do not significantly contribute to disaster recovery. Human capital, measured by the years of schooling of household head, is not positively correlated with housing reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
717. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Ashley Hess
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states. This report utilizes the unclassified data available in the West on the trends in Chinese military forces. It relies heavily on the data in the US Department of Defense (DoD) Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, particularly the 2013 edition.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
718. U.S.-India Homeland Security Cooperation: Building a Lasting Partnership via Transportation Sector Security
- Author:
- Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Ally Pregulman, Rob Wise, Briana Fitch, and Melissa Hersh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Given India's rapid development, the nation has become an increasingly vital world actor. India has the 11th largest economy in the world, and with its annual economic growth rate averaging 7 percent per year since 1997, it could surpass the United States and China to become the world's largest economy by 2050. This economic capacity facilitated billions of dollars in investments since 2006 to expand and upgrade India's defense and security capabilities, including the launch of its first nuclear- powered submarine and the ongoing acquisition of a fleet of aircraft carriers. The growth of India's economic and military sectors increases its strategic importance to the United States and other partners interested in ensuring stability and security in Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, South Asia, and India
719. U.S. Students in China: Meeting the Goals of the 100,000 Strong Initiative
- Author:
- Raisa Belyavina
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The 100,000 Strong Initiative, announced in November 2009 by President Obama, aims to increase to 100,000 the cumulative number of Americans studying in China over a four - year period. While the number of American students studying abroad for credit in Chin a has increased nearly fivefold in the last decade, the types of educational experiences undertaken by American students going abroad have changed as well. More than ever before, American students are going abroad on shorter, not - for - credit programs such a s study tours, internships, and volunteering abroad. The 100,000 Strong Initiative encourages all types of educational experiences for students in U.S. high schools, colleges, and universities.
- Topic:
- Education, Foreign Exchange, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Israel
720. China\'s Exports of Small Arms and Light Weapons
- Author:
- Mark Bromley, Paul Holtom, and Mathieu Duchâtel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- China has long been one of the world\'s most significant exporters of small arms and light weapons (SALW). It is also among the least transparent. At the same time, China has stated its commitment to preventing the illicit trade in SALW and formally recognizes the destabilizing effect that SALW transfers can have on peace and security, economic development and social stability.
- Topic:
- Crime, International Law, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
721. Patient Copayments, Provider Incentives and Income Effects: Theory and Evidence from China's Essential Medications List Policy
- Author:
- Brian K. Chen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- How do demand - and supply - side incentives interact, when there are potentially large provider income effects? We develop a simple model and empirically test it with data from China's Essential Medications List (EML) policy, which reduced patient copayments and changed provider incentives by removing a large source of revenue from primary care providers: drug dispensing revenues. Using a panel of patient - level spending and clinical data for Chinese patients with diabetes or hypertension over two and a half years, we find evidence of strategic provider response that dampened the impact of patient copayment reductions. Resource use and patient out - of - pocket spending did not change, when taking account of patient utilization outs ide primary care.
- Topic:
- Communism, Health, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
722. The Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum
- Author:
- Walter H. Shorenstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Meeting after North Korea had raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the spring, participants in the Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum focused on the implications for the Korean Peninsula of leadership changes in North and South Korea and especially China. Participants also focused on regional dynamics, including increased confrontation between China and Japan and various, sometimes conflicting, efforts to increase regional economic integration in Northeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
723. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?
- Author:
- Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
724. Sailing Against the Current – China-U.S. Relations in the Next Stage
- Author:
- Yu Bianjiang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, “rebalancing” has been a buzzword in the U.S.'s Asia-Pacific policy and naturally also in U.S.-China relations. Some believe this rebalancing has been quite successful and refer to this as the hallmark of President Barack Obama's first-term foreign policy. At the same time, others, both within and outside of America, have expressed different opinions. The most critical point is that while the U.S. administration has argued that rebalancing is an integrated strategy with military, diplomatic, and economic initiatives intended to strengthen U.S. involvement in the Asia-Pacific area, in practice, rebalancing has been depicted and implemented in more military terms, with the United States shifting its troops and resources from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia- Pacific region. “The military soundtrack has the volume turned up too loud.”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
725. China and the Arctic: China's Interests and Participation in the Region
- Author:
- Kai Sun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- As China's presence in the Arctic grows, international attention on China in the Arctic also grows. This paper clarifies why China is interested in the Arctic and its role in joining the Arctic play, and touches on future trends in this regard. The paper begins with a discussion of China's recent Arctic capacity building and diplomacy, and the surge of interest in Arctic affairs by Chinese social scientists and strategists in recent years. China looks north for basically four reasons: it is influenced by environmental changes in the Arctic; it is drawn by the business opportunities arising from the opening of the Arctic passages and better access to Arctic resources; and it is also committed to maintaining good governance in the Arctic — which is also in its best interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
726. East Asia and the Arctic: Alaskan and American Perspectives
- Author:
- Jerry McBeath
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper concerns the US view of East Asian nations' involvement in the Arctic, emphasizing the perspective of Alaska, the only US Arctic state. It treats six different areas of US/Alaska policy: US national strategy for the Arctic; oil and gas exploration and development; marine transportation; fisheries; investment in infrastructure; and governance. The study finds few differences between the positions of Alaska and the United States, notwithstanding often-hostile rhetoric from leaders in the United States' farthest north frontier. In general terms, both Alaska and the United States have historically sought trade and investment ties with East Asian nations. China has now replaced Japan as Alaska's major trading partner, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Economics, Food, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, East Asia, South Korea, Alaska, and Arctic
727. Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- China tolerates the nuclear ambitions of North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, DPRK) for now because its interests in the neighbourhood are much wider and more complex than this single issue. Beijing and the West often work toward their shared goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula with contradictory approaches that reflect their different priorities. The West uses diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and extended deterrence to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Many Western policymakers believe the DPRK will denuclearise if sufficient costs are imposed and that Beijing holds the keys because the North is economically dependent on it. But China is reluctant to take any coercive action that might destabilise the regime and change a delicate geopolitical balance. It instead continues with diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation as the instruments it hopes will cause the leadership to denuclearise in the indeterminate future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
728. Defending an Open, Global, Secure, and Resilient Internet
- Author:
- Adam Segal, John D. Negroponte, and Samuel J. Palmisano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the idea of a worldwide network was introduced in the early 1980s, the Internet has grown into a massive global system that connects over a third of the world's population, roughly 2.5 billion people. The Internet facilitates communication, commerce, trade, culture, research, and social and family connections and is now an integral part of modern life. Another 2.5 billion individuals are expected to get online by the end of this decade, mainly in the developing world, and further billions of devices and machines will be used. This enlargement to the rest of the globe could bring enormous economic, social, and political benefits to the United States and the world. New technologies could reshape approaches to disaster relief, diplomacy, conflict prevention, education, science, and cultural production.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Industrial Policy, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- China
729. Trade and the G20
- Author:
- John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
730. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Project: Organizational Capacities and Operational Capabilities
- Author:
- Ian Easton and L. C. Russell Hsiao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Revolutionary advances in unmanned technologies and the prospects offered by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in surveillance, targeting and attack appear to have captured the attention of senior civilian and defense officials in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Given the PRC’s expanding strategic interests, and the associated requirement for an improved command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure, UAVs represent a transformational capability for the Chinese military.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Surveillance, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
731. Half Lives: A Preliminary Assessment of China’s Nuclear Warhead Life Extension and Safety Program
- Author:
- Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Nuclear warheads and their associated delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles) represent the most powerful and potentially destabilizing weapons in the world today. While rapid advances in information and communications technology have endowed conventional weapons systems with the “intelligence” and precision to take on a greater number of strategic missions–for example targeting aircraft carrier groups and critical command nodes–nuclear weapons remain the sine qua non of deterrence. Indeed, while every nation’s leadership fears war to some degree, the threat of war is only truly horrific for a leader who faces an enemy armed with nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Weapons, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
732. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future
- Author:
- Sabrina Tsai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
733. CCTV's International Expansion Expansion: China's Grand Strategy for Media
- Author:
- Anne Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- China Central Television has come a long ways since its founding as a domestic party propaganda outlet in 1958. The domestic service has been supplemented by an international service, boasting three major global offices in Beijing, Washington, and Nairobi, and more than 70 additional international bureaus. The quality of CCTV’s journalism depends on both the region in which it’s produced, and the subject matter’s sensitivity in Beijing. On one hand, CCTV produces sophisticated long-form reports on complex international issues such as climate change; at the same time, its reporting on the Chinese Communist Party echoes the party line. CCTV’s biggest impact may be in regions where China is directing its international investments. The Nairobi operations complement extensive investments in African infrastructure, many of them in communications; China is also pursuing critical investment in Latin America and Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Media, Journalism, and Propaganda
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
734. The Long Shadow of Chinese Censorship: How The Communist Party's Media Restrictions Affect News Outlets Around the World
- Author:
- Sarah Cook
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- The Long Shadow of Chinese Censorship: How the Communist Party’s Media Restrictions Affect News Outlets Around the World provides a survey of this phenomenon and its recent evolution as it pertains to the news media sector, though similar dynamics also affect the film, literature, and performing arts industries. Specifically, this report focuses on six types of media outlets based outside mainland China that together reach news consumers in dozens of countries: major international media; local outlets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; mainstream media in Hong Kong and Taiwan; exile Chinese outlets providing uncensored news to people in China; and media serving Chinese diaspora communities around the world.
- Topic:
- Media, Journalism, and Censorship
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
735. Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk in Europe and China
- Author:
- Sara Hsu, Jianjun Li, and Yanzhi Qin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- We compare the European and Chinese shadow banking systems. While the European shadow banking system is better developed than the Chinese shadow banking system, herd behavior and other factors in European markets create systemic risk, which contributed in part to the financial crisis. Dispersion of risk across the "under-developed" shadow banking system in China has led to some cases of localized, concentrated risk, but not to systemic risk. We discuss proposed European shadow banking regulation and its implications for systemic risk, and discuss what lessons China might glean from such policies. We also discuss what lessons China's diverse and systemically uncoordinated shadow banking sector might provide for Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regulation, Risk, and Shadow Banking
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
736. China’s Military Strategy in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Stability
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The military modernization program being undertaken by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is changing the security environment in the Asia-Pacific. Driven by a strategy to achieve the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s goals through the exploitation of advantageous conditions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is investing in capabilities that are aimed at eroding the conventional military superiority of the United States and its allies in the region. Should the PLA’s modernization campaign succeed the likelihood of conflict and regional instability can be expected to increase as China’s authoritarian leadership is empowered with greater coercive leverage over its neighbors.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Regional Integration, Modernization, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia-Pacific
737. The People’s Liberation Army General Political Department: Political Warfare with Chinese Characteristics
- Author:
- Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Political warfare is a critical component of Chinese security strategy and foreign policy. All nation-states seek to influence policies of others to varying degrees in order to secure their respective national interests. Political warfare seeks to influence emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals in a manner favorable to one’s own political-military objectives. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rely on political warfare as a means to shape and define the discourse of international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, and History
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
738. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth
- Author:
- Jane T. Haltmaier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
739. The Emergence of China in the Middle East
- Author:
- James Chen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways, the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Arabia
740. Chinese in Georgia
- Author:
- Jiayi Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- In the two decades after independence, Georgia's open economy and lax immigration policies have engendered, for the first time, immigration from far outside of the region. On the streets of Tbilisi, the most conspicuous of these migrants are from India, China, and the countries of Africa. Of those from India, a substantial number are students of medicine, or enrolled in other professional courses. Africans in Georgia are mostly driven by work opportunity with a few students in higher education institutions. Chinese immigrants, on the other hand, are almost entirely driven by economic opportunities. A modern Chinese presence in Georgia began in the 1990s with the beginning of Chinese state-owned investment ventures in the region, as well as a burgeoning restaurant scene. In 2000s, this expanded to encompass a trickle and then an influx of Chinese migrant shop owners and market vendors. The third wave of migration occurred in 2010 as a result of contract construction workers. As of today, there are around 1,000 Chinese now divided into five groups: specialists, businessmen, shopkeepers, contract workers, and those in the restaurant and catering sector. This paper will focus on the history of Chinese migrants in Georgia, driving causes, their level of integration (or lack thereof), vulnerabilities, and their status in Georgian society. It will also cover increasingly large-scale economic ventures in the country, the status of Chinese as a foreign language in Georgia, and the role of the PRC Embassy in the Chinese community.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Immigration, and Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Georgia
741. The EU's and China's institutional diplomacy in the field of climate change
- Author:
- Pietro De Matteis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This Occasional Paper aims at providing a new perspective on the relevance of climate change for the EU's external action. Considering its linkages with various areas such as energy security, economic growth and diplomacy, and indeed its importance in terms of future political stability, climate change is a major 'game-changer' in international relations. The issue of climate change, and how to deal with it, therefore presents governments with a significant opportunity to reshape the international order in the light of the major global transformations currently underway. The development of the climate change regime presents the EU with both an opportunity and a threat, in as much as it may either accelerate Europe's decline as a foreign policy actor or, on the contrary, reinvigorate its diplomatic ambitions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
742. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions
- Author:
- Shanker A. Singham
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil
743. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia
- Author:
- Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea
744. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China
- Author:
- Georg Strüver
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
745. The Politics of Contestation in Asia: How Japan and Pakistan Deal with their Rising Neighbors
- Author:
- Daniel Flemes, Georg Strüver, and Hannes Ebert
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types of and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The paper concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the particular context: in the case of Japan, China's militarily assertive regional role has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, shifts in polarity have had the largest impact on the strategic approach.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Japan, China, and India
746. Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict
- Author:
- T.X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As America ends its military commitment to Iraq and continues its drawdown in Afghanistan, a lively discussion has emerged on what future challenges the Nation faces. High on every list is the requirement to deal with a rising China. In his remarks to the Australian Parliament on November 17, 2011, President Barack Obama stated, “As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority.” As part of this re-balancing to Asia, the administration has stated that it seeks “to identify and expand areas of common interest, to work with China to build mutual trust, and to encourage China's active efforts in global problem-solving.” Clearly, the United States seeks prudent and coordinated political, economic, and military actions to further integrate China into the international system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
747. Battle Lines in the Chinese Blogosphere: Keyword control as a tactic in managing mass incidents
- Author:
- Keegan Elmer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the role of keyword control, in other words the blocking and unblocking of search keywords, on Sina's popular microblog platform during media campaigns over politically sensitive issues in China. The author examines media campaigns in Chinese newspapers, television, microblogs and other media forms during two separate large-scale protests in December of 2011 in Guangdong province, one in the village of Wukan and the other in the town of Haimen. This paper uses these case studies to examine which acts of keyword control might be part of a set of coordinated directives in a broader media campaign over a particular politically sensitive issue. Observations based on these case studies suggest that changes in keyword control on microblogs might be the earliest detectable sign of shifts in the government's position in their response to politically sensitive issues.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- China
748. Assessing EU Leadership on Climate Change. The Limits of Diffusion in EU Relations with China and India
- Author:
- Diarmuid Torney
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- The EU has for a long time claimed the title of “leader” in the international politics of climate change. However, existing research has generally failed to specify whether the EU's purported leadership has induced the “followership” of other states. This working paper seeks to shed light on this somewhat neglected topic by examining the attempted diffusion of climate change norms, policies, and institutions by the EU to China and India. The paper makes two principal arguments. First, the development of Chinese and Indian climate change policy should be understood as primarily domestic developments. Nonetheless, there was limited evidence of diffusion from the EU, but there was significant variation between the Chinese and Indian responses to the EU's diffusion attempts. The Chinese response was one increasing accommodation; the Indian response was a more straightforward case of resistance. Second, domestic factors help to explain the variation in the Chinese and Indian responses to EU attempts at diffusion and, related, the observed pattern of diffusion from the EU to China and India. Particularly important is the degree to which new external ideas and concepts resonate with pre-existing domestic ideas and concepts. The paper thus paints a picture of limited EU leadership, but also suggests that the EU attempts to secure “followership” could be enhanced by paying greater attention to the domestic politics and preferences of third countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China and India
749. China's leadership: handover The changing of the guard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- On November 8th this year China will begin the once-a-decade process of changing its leaders, with the launch of the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This will, by coincidence, come just two days after the US presidential elections. Both events will have momentous repercussions, both for the countries involved and for the world, but they will mark a study in contrasts. Unlike the US, China's succession battles are being waged in near secrecy, yet observers are already sure who the next president and premier will be. Less clear is what exactly China's new leadership will stand for. This report will examine their backgrounds and policy positions, asking what we can expect from the incoming administration.
- Topic:
- Communism, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
750. Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of China
- Author:
- Junjie Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- China has achieved miraculous economic growth over the past 30 years to become the world's second largest single-country economy. The economic boom is attributed to China's market-oriented reforms, which prioritize economic growth. However, growing the gross domestic product (GDP) at any cost has created a series of social and environmental problems. Consequently, China's economic losses due to pollution and environmental degradation accounted for 10.51 percent of gross national income in 2008, according to the World Bank.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
751. Central Asia's Crisis of Governance
- Author:
- Philip Shishkin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Located in a strategically important neighborhood amid China, Russia, Afghanistan, and Iran, and sitting atop vast deposits of oil, gas, gold, and uranium, post-Soviet Central Asia is home to some 50 million people living in five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan . For centuries, the region has drawn the attention of the world's superpowers as they seek leverage over their foes, access to natural resources, or a base from which to influence adjacent regions . For just as long, the societies of Central Asia have been beset by lackluster and often abusive rule, first by warring and insular feudal chiefs, then by colonial conquerors from Russia, and then by their Soviet successors .Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union 20 years ago, the five Central Asian republics have struggled to find viable governance models and to place their economies, long moored to Moscow, on stable footing.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Development, Human Rights, Islam, Governance, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, China, Iran, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
752. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil
753. Global Technology Sourcing in China's Integrated Circuit Design Industry: A Conceptual Framework and Preliminary Findings
- Author:
- Barry Naughton and Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the role of global technology sourcing, and its drivers and impacts in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry. IC design is one of the priority targets of China's innovation policy, as codified especially in the ―Strategic Emerging Industries‖ initiative. At the same time, however, China's IC design industry is deeply integrated into the vertically disintegrated global semiconductor industry, through markets, investment and technology. The paper highlights a fundamental challenge for China's innovation strategy: How can China reconcile its primary objective of strengthening indigenous innovation with the benefits that it could reap from its deep integration into international trade and into global networks of production and innovation?
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
754. A Policy Mismatch: Canada and the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region
- Author:
- James Manicom
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The United States and Canada have simultaneously re- invigorated their diplomatic and military postures toward the Asia-Pacific region. As two of the world's closest allies, it is worth exploring the possible synergies and tensions between their efforts to identify areas of possible policy coordination. Canada has considerable assets that could support US diplomacy in the region, including the legacy of its good offices and its close ties with the US military; however, these assets are outweighed by three liabilities. First, Canada's diplomacy to the Asia-Pacific is driven by its desire to diversify away from the US market. Although relatively innocuous in isolation, the politics of this shift, driven by growing concern in Canada about whether the United States remains a reliable market for energy exports, adds a layer of complexity. Second, Canada's closer economic ties with China could undermine its willingness to support the United States on tough regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Third, and related, Canadian silence about navigational freedoms, the primary security issue between the United States and China in East Asia, has not gone unnoticed. This paper argues that, on balance, Canada may not be an ideal Pacific partner for the United States.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, East Asia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
755. Beyond the Millennium Development Goals Agreeing to a Post-2015 Development Framework
- Author:
- Alex Evans and David Steven
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an overview of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their expected status in 2012; describes the background to, and options for, a post-2015 framework; and discusses how governments can best navigate the political challenges of agreeing to a new set of development goals.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China
756. The Renminbi Bloc Is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A country's rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging market economies, we show that in the last two years, the renminbi has increasingly become a reference currency which we define as one which exhibits a high degree of co-movement (CMC) with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a renminbi bloc, because the renminbi has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the renminbi than with the dollar, with the average value of the CMC relative to the renminbi being 40 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the renminbi, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the renminbi bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the renminbi's situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global renminbi bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s but complementary reforms of the financial and external sector could considerably expedite the process.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
757. Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand
758. Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate
- Author:
- Olivier Jeanne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a simple model of how a small open economy can undervalue its real exchange rate using its capital account policies. The paper presents several properties of such policies, and proposes a rule of thumb to assess their welfare cost. The model is applied to an analysis of Chinese capital account policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
759. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
760. Untying the land knot: Turning investment challenges into opportunities for all citizens
- Author:
- Xiaofang Shen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- China, 1980s. Newly embarked on its economic transformation, China opened to foreign direct investment (FDI) to obtain capital, technology and access to world markets. Investors hesitated, however, since national law prohibited access to state-owned land. In reaction, the government introduced a long-term lease system, first tested in special economic zones and later applied across the country. This approach enabled China's phenomenal success in attracting FDI in the years to come; it also paved the way for 500 million urban citizens to gain property rights, which in turn inspired the rural population to ask for the same rights today.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
761. China Reinterprets the Liberal Peace
- Author:
- Silvia Menegazzi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- China's assertiveness is growing. While in the past China's foreign policy kept a low profile in international affairs, global developments, prime amongst which in the Middle East, highlight China's growing influence in world politics and its ensuing role in shaping global norms. Within the liberal peace discourse, China's reinterpretation of international norms can be seen as the result of a mixture of prior local norms - sovereignty and non-interference - and changes within the international environment - namely conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. Particularly, in terms of intervention and peace-building practices, China insists that a number of preconditions - which are encapsulated in the notion of Responsible Protection (RP) - have to be met in order to consider intervention in sovereign states. This paper argues that in order to achieve a full picture of Chinese foreign policy and its normative underpinnings, it is necessary to explore the debate within non-state actors beyond the government apparatus, such as think tanks and research institutions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Emerging Markets, International Affairs, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
762. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios
- Author:
- Frans-Paul van der Putten
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia
763. Russia, China and Global Governance
- Author:
- Charles Grant
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The need for international co-operation has never been greater, yet global governance is inadequate. Whether one looks at the Doha round of trade liberalisation, the climate change talks led by the United Nations, the G20's efforts to co-ordinate economic and financial policies, or efforts to reform the UN Security Council (UNSC), not much is being achieved. 'Multilateralism'–the system of international institutions and rules intended to promote the common good–appears to be weakening. At the same time, the growing influence of China, Russia and other non-Western powers is pushing the international order towards 'multipolarity'.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
764. True Partners? How Russia and China See Each Other
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This report compares Russian and Chinese security perceptions and explains how they shape the two countries' policies towards each other. It argues that the modern relationship between the two countries, formed in the late 19th and 20th centuries, was turned on its head at the start of the 21st century. China has now become a powerful factor affecting a whole range of Russian policies, both domestic and foreign. The paper also argues that, while Russia is not central to China's foreign relations, and non-existent in China's domestic politics, good relations with Moscow are an important supporting element in Beijing's overall strategy of reclaiming China's 'rightful place in the world'. It concludes that while both countries need each other and would benefit from a stable political relationship and close economic ties, both Moscow and Beijing lack the long-term strategies to create such a bond.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
765. China's Trade Playbook: Why America Needs a New Game Plan
- Author:
- Ed Gerwin and Ryan McConaghy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- December 2011 marked China's 10th anniversary as a member of the World Trade Organization. Despite progress on market reforms in a number of areas, China has failed to live up to a wide range of promised WTO commitments. To make matters worse, China has actually regressed towards less open markets and "state capitalism" in key sectors. China's unfair currency manipulation has been a flashpoint in its trade relations with the United States and we must aggressively address that practice. But, China doesn't rely on currency alone to get an edge. Rather, it employs an entire array of unfair tactics to block American exports and investments and deny economic opportunity for our workers, manufacturers, farmers and service providers.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and America
766. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
767. The China Model and U.S. Energy Policy
- Author:
- Lee Lane
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Americans are right to be dismayed with U.S. energy policy. For forty years, presidents of both parties have backed a series of fanciful "breakthrough technologies." From synfuels to Solyndra, these schemes have turned out to be costly disappointments and the source of a recurring political drama. After failures become clear, Congress sometimes conducts oversight hearings. But it welcomes each new scheme as a pretext for pork barrel politics. Neither the executive nor the legislature ever learns from past failures.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Germany
768. Can NATO Find a Role for Itself vis-À -vis China?
- Author:
- James Boutilier
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- NATO is at a crossroads. This is not the first time that Brussels has been faced with critical decisions about the direction, character and raison d'être of this unique and remarkable organization. But this time the stakes are even higher. The major centers of global power are all weak simultaneously for individual and inter-connected reasons. The greatest power on earth and NATO's banker, the United States, is confronting almost insurmountable levels of debt and talk about the end of the American empire has become commonplace. The European community is reeling from the cumulative effect of debt crises. And China, the 21st century's "workshop of the world" (and in the eyes of some a potential savor of ailing economies in Europe) has begun to see its economy slow disturbingly. At the same time, two other phenomena are unfolding; the rapid and profound shift in the global centre of economic gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the winding down of NATO's involvement in Afghanistan. The latter, of course, raises the inevitable question: "What next?" The former raises a related question: "Does NATO's future lie in Asia?"
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Europe, and Asia
769. Pharmaceutical Price Regulation: Macro-Level Evidence from China between 1997 and 2008
- Author:
- Qiong Zhang, Binzhen Wu, and Xue Qiao
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This paper uses macro-level data between 1997 and 2008 to evaluate the effects of China's pharmaceutical price regulations. We find that these regulations had short-run effects on medicine price indexes, reducing them by less than 0.5 percentage points. The effects could have been slightly reinforced when these regulations were imposed on more medicines. However, these regulations failed to reduce household health expenditures and the average profitability of the pharmaceutical industry, and firms on the break-even edge were worse off. Finally, although these regulations have no significant effects on the price of substitutes or complements for medicines, they increased expensive medicine imports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
770. Frames We Can Believe In: Official Framing and Ideology in the CCP's Quest for Legitimacy
- Author:
- Maria Bondes and Sandra Heep
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In the debate on authoritarian resilience, the importance of persuasion to regime legitimacy has been widely acknowledged, yet a conceptual framework explaining the role of persuasion is still lacking. Against this backdrop, we argue that the framing perspective (Benford and Snow 2000) provides a useful basis for such a framework. Drawing on Beetham's (1991) model of legitimacy, we contend that the ruling elites in authoritarian regimes propagate official frames in a continuous effort to reproduce the belief of the populace in the elites' leadership qualities and their determination to serve the common interest. In the empirical part of our paper we look at the case of China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has in recent years reemphasized persuasion as a means of reproducing legitimacy. We then apply our theory in an analysis of the conceptual shifts in the CCP's frames and ideology, as propagated under its secretary general, Hu Jintao.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Theory, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
771. Global Governance Audit
- Author:
- Hakan Altinay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We frequently treat the changing constellation that has come to be referred to as global governance as a lackluster fait accompli. Nobody has masterminded it. Nobody is really in charge. Almost everybody has reasons to be unhappy about what they view as its current suboptimal state. As such, global governance is not an easy phenomenon to assess or audit. The benchmarks and scales to be used are not obvious. Yet an audit attempt is nevertheless necessary, if for no other reason than to start to form a deliberated assessment, to develop some benchmarks, and to refine our questions for the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
772. Africa: open for business The potential, challenges and risks
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Europe
773. Is There a "Chinese School" of IR?
- Author:
- Nele Noesselt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Research on Chinese International Relations (IR) theory has produced a variety of discourses, including post-positivist analyses, contributions by area specialists and China watchers, and articles by Chinese IR scholars. These strands, however, hardly overlap or communicate with each other. To close the gap between “the self-reflection of the core” (“Western” IR) (Waever/Tickner 2009: 3) and “the periphery's revolt against [“Western”] IR” paradigms (ibid.), it is necessary to view China (and other non-“Western” regions) as more than simply a playground for theory testing. This paper thus goes beyond the metatheoretical debate about the possibility of non-“Western” IR. It argues that even though the IR debates in China are heavily influenced by the trends of “Western” IR Studies, the claim regarding the establishment of a “Chinese school of IR” is not a hollow slogan. Indigenous frameworks are already under construction.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
774. China's New Courtship in South Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and South Sudan
775. Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Prachi Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the "spillover effect." Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
776. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia
777. U.S.-China Parallel Development Assistance Goals
- Author:
- Xiaoqing Lu Boynton and Conor M. Savoy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As China's economy expanded in recent decades, there has been a corresponding rise in the amount of foreign assistance it offers to the developing world. In particular, China increased aid to countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Some of China's methods and objectives are controversial with the international aid community. Critics accuse China of frequently following a “mercantilist” strategy in using aid and loans in order to secure natural resources such as oil and raw materials. One commentator went so far as to describe Chinese aid as “rogue aid,” because it is driven by self-interest and not what is best for the developing world.1In remarks widely interpreted as aimed at China, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently warned countries to be “wary of donors who are more interested in extracting your resources than in building your capacity.”2Added to these feelings, China treats the methodology of its aid as a competitive asset and has sought to distance itself from international efforts at creating a cooperative framework for foreign assistance. In spite of this, since the second term of the Bush administration, the United States has sought to engage with China on international development. This includes high-level meetings be-tween the heads of China's foreign aid bureaucracy and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), as well as on-the-ground attempts to find common ground on development.
- Topic:
- Development, Natural Resources, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Southeast Asia
778. China and Afghanistan: China's Interests, Stances, and Perspectives
- Author:
- Huasheng Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- China holds clear, coherent, but relatively low-profile positions on Afghanistan. While staying largely with the mainstream of the international community on the issue of Afghanistan, China maintains an independent policy that reflects the peculiarities of Chinese interests, concerns, and priorities in Afghanistan. China has multiple interests in Afghanistan; however, domestic concerns about the security and stability of the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang overwhelm all others. China maintains normal and good relations with the Afghan government, takes active part in the country's economic rebuilding, and provides Afghanistan financial aid and other assistance. China supports the international community in its efforts in Afghanistan, but stays away from direct military involvement. China refrains from criticizing America's involvement in the war in Afghan- istan, but it doubts the war's efficacy, and China refuses to join the American Northern Distribu- tion Network (NDN) to Afghanistan. China dislikes the Taliban because of its close relations with the “East Turkistan” organization—a Uyghur separatist group—but China deals with the Taliban cautiously, trying to avoid direct conflict. China favors an Afghanistan governed by Afghans and hopes that the “Kabul process”—the transition to greater Afghan responsibility and ownership in both security and civilian areas—will have a successful end. At the same time, China also prepares for unexpected outcomes.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, China, and Asia
779. Country Forecast: Global outlook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Middle East
780. Stirring up the South China Sea
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The conflicting mandates and lack of coordination among Chinese government agencies, many of which strive to increase their power and budget, have stoked tensions in the South China Sea. Repeated proposals to establish a more centralised mechanism have foundered while the only agency with a coordinating mandate, the foreign ministry, does not have the authority or resources to manage other actors. The Chinese navy\'s use of maritime tensions to justify its modernisation, and nationalist sentiment around territorial claims, further compound the problem. But more immediate conflict risks lie in the growing number of law enforcement and paramilitary vessels playing an increasing role in disputed territories without a clear legal framework. They have been involved in most of the recent incidents, including the prolonged standoff between China and the Philippines in April 2012 in Scarborough Reef. Any future solution to the South China Sea disputes will require a consistent policy from China executed uniformly throughout the different levels of government along with the authority to enforce it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Markets, and Maritime Commerce
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
781. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights
- Author:
- Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia
782. When Voicelessness Meets Speechlessness – Struggling for Equity in Chinese-Ghanaian Employment Relations
- Author:
- Karsten Giese and Alena Thiel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In this article Chinese-Ghanaian employment relations are analyzed using the concepts of foreignness, the psychological contract, equity, and cross-cultural communication. Based on a qualitative study conducted in Accra, Ghana, we discuss the labor market in general and introduce the conditions under which Chinese sojourners operate their family trade businesses in the city. After discussing the phenomenon of Ghanaian employment within Chinese trade companies from a theoretical perspective, we explain how Chinese employers' and Ghanaian employees' culturally based perceptions of employment relations are contradictory and prone to conflict. We then show how, under the condition of the employers' foreignness, Ghanaian employees perceive their psychological contracts as being violated and Chinese employers regard the equity of exchange relations as distorted. We discuss how Ghanaian employees cope with this situation by means of voice, silence, retreat or destruction, while Chinese employers, who lack both sufficient language skills and effective sanctions, choose to endure perceived distortions of equity and in some cases ultimately terminate employment relations when inadequate cross-cultural communication results in a failure to mediate conflicts.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Ghana
783. China's Economic Restructuring: Role of Agriculture
- Author:
- Zhang Hongzhou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While China has achieved extraordinary economic success in the past decades, its economic structural risks have increased significantly as well. As Chinese top leaders have repeatedly emphasized, economic restructuring is a critical task facing China's economy. To restructure China's economy, the country needs to find a new engine for growth to replace the export and investment led growth model, address social inequality and protect the environment. The key approaches identified by the Chinese government include urbanization, upgrading the manufacturing sector and developing strategic industries. However, through in-depth analysis, this paper finds that the effectiveness of these measures remains in question as they fail to target at all the root causes of China's economic problems.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
784. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Europe
785. A greener shade of grey: A special report on renewable energy in China
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Fossil fuels will continue to dominate China's energy mix, although renewable energy will carve out a bigger role. The large market for clean technology that this provides will give succour to firms in the sector—those, that is, that are able to survive their present difficulties.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- China
786. Watching a dragon's egg hatch: The makings of a Sinocentric world?
- Author:
- Jyrki Kallio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- As China's hard power is growing, the Party-state is keen to construct a new narrative which legitimizes China's position as a world leader also from the soft power perspective. It has even been suggested that a Chinese international relations theory or model will inevitably emerge as a consequence of China's growing role on the world stage on the one hand and the rise of traditional values in China on the other.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
787. The Influence of Domestic Politics on Philippine Foreign Policy: The case of Philippines-China relations since 2004
- Author:
- Aileen S. P. Baviera
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper sets out to explore the role of domestic politics in the shaping and implementing of Philippine foreign policy and its relations with China. It examines how domestic politics have driven Philippine foreign policy behaviour towards China; whether the Philippine Government has successfully managed the domestic drivers in promoting the state's interests in its relations with China, and whether there are major constraints that have prevented the attainment of more desirable outcomes in the bilateral ties. It looks at three cases: the Philippines-China joint marine seismic undertaking in the South China Sea; China's participation in the national broadband network project and a railway project; and Philippine reactions to China's execution of three Filipino drug mules.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Philippines
788. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
789. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
790. Diverging Trajectories: Economic Rebalancing and Labor Policies in China
- Author:
- Boy Lüthje
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The transformation of work and labor policies is one of the most underresearched aspects of China's political economy in recent decades. Western perceptions of Chinese workplaces are mostly informed by images of privatization and downsizing of traditional state-socialist enterprises, or by the unfamous sweatshops serving the production networks of global brandname companies under miserable conditions However, recent research reveals that labor politics in China have become highly diversified, in spite of the apparently centralized character of the political regime. At the same time, labor conflicts are on the rise across industries and regions.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- China
791. A Flop and a Debacle: Inside the IMF's Global Rebalancing Acts
- Author:
- Paul Blustein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Cooperation among major countries to shrink global imbalances in trade and capital flows is highly desirable for the sake of promoting a sustainable recovery from the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. The story that unfolds in this paper does not bode well for such cooperation. It is a detailed account of the initiatives, led by the IMF, to address imbalances prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- China
792. Perspectives on the G20: The Los Cabos Summit and Beyond
- Author:
- James A. Haley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The G20 leaders meeting in Los Cabos confront a number of challenges. Most prominent among these is the state of the global economy, which remains dangerously unbalanced, and in which the balance of risks is clearly weighted on the downside. These risks emanate from several sources.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
793. Bahrain and the global balance of power after the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Lars Erslev Andersen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain
794. The Last Living Fossil of the Cold War The two Koreas, the Dragon and the Eagle: towards a new regional security complex in East Asia?
- Author:
- Erik Beukel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The divided Korean peninsula is a flashpoint in the regional security complex in East Asia. The central issue is the threat posed by North Korea and how to meet it. After a review of North Korea as an international actor and of two important incidents in 2010 (the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan and North Korea's shelling of the South Korean coastal island of Yeonpyeong), the rationality underlying the country's military efforts is considered. South Korea's Nordpolitik is reviewed and the rise and decline of its sunshine policy and the role of its alliance with the United States is described. Two non-Korean great powers, China and the United States, are important actors in the region, and their relations with North Korea, goals and priorities, and implementation strategies are outlined. The report concludes with reflections on the potential for changing the present security complex, which is marked by a fear of war, into a restrained security regime, based on agreed and observed rules of conduct.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Communism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Korea, and Island
795. North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Transitions often present risks to authoritarian regimes, but the succession in North Korea has apparently passed with few problems. With no opposition from the military and China's clear support, there are no signs to suggest that Kim Jŏng-ŭn, the young leader who replaced his father, Kim Jong-il, following his death in December 2011, is anything but in charge in his own right. Far from creating a regency of older family members or generals, the North Korean system has maintained its focus on a single leader and projected an image of stability and unity as it celebrates the centenary of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung. While that image appears to be accurate, there is nothing to suggest that the new leader is or will become inclined to take measures that would either improve the lot of the country's citizens or reduce the regional frictions that Pyongyang is at the centre of.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
796. Stirring up the South China Sea (II): Regional Responses
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The South China Sea dispute between China and some of its South East Asian neighbours – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – has reached an impasse. Increasingly assertive positions among claimants have pushed regional tensions to new heights. Driven by potential hydrocarbon reserves and declining fish stocks, Vietnam and the Philippines in particular are taking a more confrontational posture with China. All claimants are expanding their military and law enforcement capabilities, while growing nationalism at home is empowering hardliners pushing for a tougher stance on territorial claims. In addition, claimants are pursuing divergent resolution mechanisms; Beijing insists on resolving the disputes bilaterally, while Vietnam and the Philippines are actively engaging the U.S. and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To counter diminishing prospects of resolution of the conflicts, the countries should strengthen efforts to promote joint development of hydrocarbon and fish resources and adopt a binding code of conduct for all parties to the dispute.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Maritime Commerce, Natural Resources, and Food
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, Israel, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Brunei
797. Supersized cities: China's 13 megalopolises
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- The rise and decline of great cities past was largely based on their ability to draw the ambitious and the restless from other places. China's cities are on the rise. Their growth has been fuelled both by the large-scale internal migration of those seeking better lives and by government initiatives encouraging the expansion of urban areas. The government hopes that the swelling urban populace will spend more in a more highly concentrated retail environment, thereby helping to rebalance the Chinese economy towards private consumption.
- Topic:
- Communism, Demographics, Development, Economics, Migration, and Urbanization
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
798. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas S. Yarosh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US and China face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each nation is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
799. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation
- Author:
- KUIK Cheng-Chwee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, and Israel
800. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea
- Author:
- Christopher Freise
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia