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  • Author: Erica Downs
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: China's blistering economic growth has made access to adequate energy supplies an increasingly important priority. It is the world's second largest consumer and third largest producer of primary energy. From 2000 to 2005, China's energy consumption rose by 60 percent, accounting for almost half of the growth in world energy consumption. The country is able to meet more than 90 percent of its energy needs with domestic supplies — largely because of abundant coal reserves and a coal-based economy. However, it imports almost half of the oil it consumes.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Peter C. Evans
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: For decades, Japan dominated Asia's energy picture. At the time of the first oil shock in 1973, it held a 60 percent share of Asia's oil demand. During the 1980s, Japan looked to China for oil and coal as part of its energy import diversification strategy. Today, Japan remains an important energy market but its position in Asia's energy supply and demand balance is rapidly changing. In the wake of surging regional demand, Japan's share of oil consumption is likely to fall below 15 percent of total Asian consumption by 2020. Demand for its major fuel needs — including oil, gas, coal, and uranium — is expected to remain relatively flat or increase only marginally. Meanwhile, the rest of Asia's requirement for these fuels is projected to grow dramatically, leaving Japan to confront a future in which it will be a smaller energy player facing a more crowded field of competitors for these energy supplies.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Asia
  • Author: Tanvi Madan
  • Publication Date: 11-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Growth demands energy. It is no wonder that India — with an economy expected to grow at over 5 percent a year for the next twenty-five years — has developed a ravenous appetite for energy. India is the world's fifth largest consumer of energy, and by 2030 it is expected to become the third largest, overtaking Japan and Russia.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Japan, India, Asia
  • Author: Rensselaer Lee
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The danger posed by Russia's inadequately secured stocks of nuclear weapons and fissile material is a major national security concern for the United States. Various cooperative U.S.-Russian programs aimed at securing nuclear material, weapons, and design intelligence have been mounted since the 1990s, but clever and determined adversaries may be able to circumvent or defeat the defenses that the United States and its partners are attempting to put in place. U.S. programs are by their nature reactive: they have long time horizons; they focus preeminently on the supply side of the problem; and they face serious technological limitations. Russia's imperfect commitment to nonproliferation also undermines the effectiveness of U.S. nonproliferation efforts.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 10-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Bangladesh faces twin threats to its democracy and stability: the risk that its political system will founder in a deadlock over elections and the growing challenge of militant Islamism, which has brought a spate of violence. The issues are linked; Islamic militancy has flourished in a time of dysfunctional politics, popular discontent and violence. The questions of whether Bangladesh's traditional moderation and resilience will see it through or whether escalating violence and political confrontation could derail its democracy are vital ones. Serious instability in the world's third most populous Muslim country could not fail to have wider implications. The situation does not justify great anxiety about the outbreak of major conflict domestically or the nurturing of significant extremism and terrorism internationally but there are elements of fragility in the system which need close watching and engagement. The international community can help to address the graver risks but only if it takes Bangladesh seriously as a strategic partner and moves towards more mature political engagement.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Bangladesh, Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The Pakistan government's ill-planned and poorly executed emergency response to the October 2005 earthquake highlighted the inadequacies of authoritarian rule. As the government now embarks on three to four years of reconstruction and rehabilitation, the absence of civilian oversight and inadequate accountability and transparency could seriously undermine the process. Should jihadi groups that have been active in relief work remain as involved in reconstruction, threats to domestic and regional security will increase.
  • Topic: Security, Environment, Government
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Asia
  • Author: Tim Murphy
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: The war in Afghanistan represented an eastward shift in the United States' international focus. Previously concentrated on the Middle East, the United States has reconfigured its foreign policy directives to include interests east of the Middle East. The shift was long overdue. Central Asia is a rising regional security concern, and Chinese and Russian actions therein have cultivated robust political ties. Resulting cooperatives and agreements promote Chinese and Russian regional objectives. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) originally consisted of five Central Asian and Asian countries (the Shanghai Five), ostensibly to unify signatories on economic, social and political platforms. However, the SCO is often a proxy to advance Chinese and Russian interests.
  • Topic: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Thomas Keller
  • Publication Date: 11-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: On Oct. 2 two U.S. and one Afghan soldier were killed in an insurgent attack in Kunar province. Three Americans were also wounded. A U.S. patrol was targeted by a suicide bomber in eastern Afghanistan on Oct. 7 – the five-year anniversary of the launch of Operation Enduring Freedom – no casualties were reported. Six men delivering aid from American forces were killed by a roadside bomb in eastern Afghanistan on Oct. 14. U.S.-led coalition and Afghan troops raided an insurgent hideout in Ghazni Province on Oct. 17; one soldier was wounded and three militants killed.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Asia
  • Author: Richard F. Grimmett
  • Publication Date: 11-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: This report is prepared annually to provide Congress with official, unclassified, quantitative data on conventional arms transfers to developing nations by the United States and foreign countries for the preceding eight calendar years for use in its various policy oversight functions. All agreement and delivery data in this report for the United States are government-to-government (FMS) transactions. Some general data are provided on worldwide conventional arms transfers by all suppliers, but the principal focus is the level of arms transfers by major weapons suppliers to nations in the developing world.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Victoria Samson
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: WASHINGTON -China is rapidly becoming, to many U.S. conservatives, the primary menace to U.S. national security. In fact, the attitude seems to be that China is the new Soviet bear. This mentality would have you believe that any gains by China are directly at the expense of the United States. But this attitude is unsubstantiated and based largely on racism -- which it would behoove the United States to drop immediately.
  • Topic: Security, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Harry G. Gelber
  • Publication Date: 08-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The 1840-42 Anglo-Chinese war (the so-called “Opium War”) is almost universally believed to have been triggered by British imperial rapacity and determination to sell more and more opium into China. That belief is mistaken. The British went to war because of Chinese military threats to defenseless British civilians, including women and children; because China refused to negotiate on terms of diplomatic equality and because China refused to open more ports than Canton to trade, not just with Britain but with everybody. The belief about British “guilt” came later, as part of China's long catalogue of alleged Western “exploitation and aggression.”
  • Topic: Security, War
  • Political Geography: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Jeremiah Gertler
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In early 2005, Kurt M. Campbell, Director of CSIS' International Security Program, accompanied Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on a trip to Asia. Enroute, the Secretary and several of his close aides expressed an interest in learning more about the future of missile defenses in East Asia and the Subcontinent. Although familiar with the missile defense policies of countries in the region, they were concerned about how those policies were being implemented, whether the various national efforts were complementary or counterproductive, and how those efforts might affect the US approach to missile defense architecture.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Publication Date: 04-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: American strategy can—and must—respond to China's rise in a way that assures regional security, realizes the greatest possible economic benefit, averts worst-case outcomes from China's remarkable social transformation, and increasingly integrates the country as a partner—or at least not an active opponent—in achieving a prosperous and stable world order for future generations. All this can be done—if the United States asks the right questions, understands China's complexities, and reinforces America's strengths. China: The Balance Sheet, a joint publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Institute for International Economics, provides the foundation for an informed and effective response to the China challenge in four critical areas.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America, Asia
  • Author: Peter Dahl Thruelsen
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report sets out to explore the processes of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) within the context of post-conflict peace-building. I have tried to investigate the transformation of soldiers to civilians in the aftermath of war. The purpose of the research is to facilitate practical recommendations of DDR to be used in future cases of post-conflict peace-building.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Development
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Asia
  • Author: Melvyn Leffler
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Kennan's thinking and policy prescriptions evolved quickly from the time he wrote the “Long Telegram” in February 1946 until the time he delivered the Walgreen Lectures at the University of Chicago in 1950. His initial emphasis was on the assessment of the Soviet threat. With new documents from the Soviet archives, we can see that the “Long Telegram” and the “Mr. X” article contained both brilliant insights and glaring omissions. After he was appointed by Secretary of State George C. Marshall to head the newly formed Policy Planning Staff, Kennan's thinking evolved from a focus on threat assessment to an emphasis on interests. Believing that the Soviet threat was political and ideological, and not military, Kennan stressed the importance of reconstructing Western Europe and rebuilding western Germany and Japan. The key task was to prevent the Kremlin from gaining a preponderance of power in Eurasia. Kennan always believed that containment was a prelude to rollback and that the Soviet Union could be maneuvered back to its prewar borders. Eventually, the behavior of the Kremlin would mellow and its attitudes toward international relations would change. The United States needed to negotiate from strength, but the object of strength was, in fact, to negotiate—and compromise. It was important for the United States to avoid overweening commitments. American insecurity stemmed from a mistaken emphasis on legalism and moralism. The United States could not transform the world and should not seek to do so. Goals needed to be modest, linked to interests, and pursued systematically. Kennan would have nothing but disdain for a policy based on notions of a “democratic peace.” But the empirical evidence of social scientists cannot be ignored. Should the pursuit of democracy no longer be seen as a value, but conceived of as an interest?
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Japan, America, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, Chicago
  • Author: Vasco Molini
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Analysing the performance of ten developing countries, Hoddinot and Yohannes (2002) find a strong association between two measures of food security (calorie intake and mostly dietary diversity) and the increase in expenditures per capita. Using various indicators of food security, we describe the changes in food balances in Vietnam and find evidence of a substitution of poor micronutrients items (rice and cereals) with rich ones like fruit, vegetables fish and meat. Poor households, while increasing the amount of calories consumed, still lack vitamins, iron, calcium, etc. A preliminary assessment of the food security variation showed that improvements were, as expected, more concentrated among the richer Vietnamese households than the poor ones, although there was some improvement among poorer strata as well. We also focus on the calorie/expenditure elasticity and compare results for the years 1993 and 1998. Our findings confirm that this link is strong, and show that calorie income elasticity changed in the expected direction. We conclude that in general food security improved in Vietnam during 1990s although considerable differences still remain among expenditure deciles and among regions due to the accentuated spatial difference.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Asia, Vietnam
  • Author: Tan Kwoh Jack
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: China's decision to enter the Korean War in 1950 is a historical puzzle: why would China, a much weaker country, enter into a military confrontation with the United States, a superpower? The rationale for Chairman Mao Zedong's intervention in Korea carries strategic lessons for the contemporary crisis on the Korean Peninsula, as well as for Sino-American relations. Utilizing newly declassified Russian documents made available at the Cold War International History Project from 1994- 2004, this paper critically assesses this new evidence concurrently with the existing literature that has emerged so far, and seeks to contribute to the “trigger vs. justification” debate surrounding China'sentry. Three shortcomings of this debate are identified: 1) whether Mao would have intervened had the US military stopped at the 38 th parallel is difficult to determine; 2) Mao' s vacillations up till the very last minute cast doubt on the justification argument i.e. offensive intervention driven by revolutionary ideology and politics; and 3) as a result, this ignores the complex dimensions of decision-making and interaction between Stalin and the Chinese leadership, as well as within the Chinese leadership itself. This paper argues that one significant variable overlooked heretofore is the American landings at Inchon on 19 September 1950. This is followed by in-depth analyses of the following three main interactions that Inchon engendered – 1) the policy shifts within the Truman administration; 2) the Stalin-Mao manoeuvres; and 3) the debates and dilemmas within the Chinese Politburo. This paper concludes that it was Inchon, along with additional pressure from Stalin, and not the crossing of the 38 th parallel, that triggered China's eventual entry into Korea.
  • Topic: Security, War
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Shabnam Mallick, Rajarshi Sen
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: In the context of the president's rule in India in 1975 we look at the intersection of political corruption and human security through the lens of the theory of securitization-desecuritization. We study the 'deeper politics' — i.e., the frame of reference of actors — behind the distortions in the civic and political institutions of India. We argue that the securitization of development, in order to extricate the national developmental enterprise from the deadweight of corruption, led to de-politicization of the developmental enterprise, which in turn negatively impacted human security. In doing so, we arrive at some moral, social-psychological, and cognitive understanding of how not to securitize. The policy implications are towards employing securitization only as a last resort.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Mika Toyota
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the securitization process of unauthorised migration in Thailand, in particular how the cross-border flows of marginalised minorities, the so-called 'hill tribes' came to be seen as an 'existential threat' to Thai national identity by the state. The paper aims to present a case of societal security by highlighting the importance of national identity. It intends to explore the reasons for portraying cross-border mobility of border minorities as existential threats to the integrity of the Thai state. More specifically, it will investigate the motives of the securitising actor, the Thai state-and examine why the issue evoked security concerns in the wake of the 1997 economic crisis and the way 'emergency measures' were introduced. This paper will illustrate the importance of ethnocized discourses on national identity by broadening the traditional security studies' framework on states and political-military competition at the borderlands.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Migration
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: James Laki
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: Transnational crime involving all forms of domestic crime that traverse the international boundary with another one or more states have become a concern amongst all peoples of the Asia Pacific region. Although there are many forms of transnational crime this paper focuses on Human and Drug Smuggling, as these have become existential threats affecting many people throughout the region.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Crime
  • Political Geography: Asia