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141. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

142. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

143. Indo-US Relations: Where Are They Headed?

Author:
Ronen Sen
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India. It is a very special pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all of you for this special occasion. We are honored to welcome Ambassador of India Ronen Sen for a very unusual event. This is the opportunity to participate in a dialogue with India's most distinguished diplomat and active participant in ongoing discussions of the potential for changing the direction of India-US relations and potentially the future great power balance in Asia.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
United States, India, East Asia, and Asia

144. How Bargaining Alters Outcomes: Bilateral Trade Negotiations And Bargaining Strategies

Author:
Deborah Elms
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This article considers bargaining strategies used by government negotiators in the context of bilateral trade disputes. I argue that trade officials reach the most durable agreements by using an integrative, or value creating, strategy and avoiding the use of threats. By contrast, a highly distributive, value claiming strategy coupled with loud public threats is unlikely to result in a durable agreement and frequently leads to deadlocked negotiations. The irony, however, is that American officials use the latter approach more frequently in bilateral trade disputes, rather than the former. These strategies are usually chosen unconsciously in response to perceptions of losses that drive negotiators to select risky approaches to resolve disputes
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

145. Deducing India's Grand Strategy Of Regional Hegemony From Historical And Conceptual Perspectives

Author:
Manjeet Singh Pardesi
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper seeks to answer if a rising India will repeat the pattern of all rising great powers since the Napoleonic times by attempting regional hegemony. This research deduces India's grand strategy of regional hegemony from historical and conceptual perspectives. The underlying assumption is that even though India has never consciously and deliberately pursues a grand strategy, its historical experience and geo-strategic environment have substantially conditioned its security behaviour and desired goals. To this extent, this research develops a theoretical framework to analyse grand strategy. This framework is then applied to five pan-Indian powers–the Mauryas, the Guptas, the Mughals, British India and the Republic of India–to understand their security behavior.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
India and Asia

146. Road to Ruin: Afghanistan's Booming Opium Industry

Author:
Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
President George W. Bush declared recently that “the people of Afghanistan are now free.” While the president boasts, Afghanistan's opium industry, which fosters terrorism, violence, debt bondage, and organized crime, has expanded to the point that it could undermine the entire U.S. and international effort. As President Bush's own special envoy and ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently admitted, ''[r]ather than getting better, it's gotten worse. There is a potential for drugs overwhelming the institutions – a sort of a narco-state."
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

147. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy

Author:
Richard B. Freeman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe

148. Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Author:
Kenneth Schultz
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

149. Missile Defence in the United States

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The basic arguments of this paper are, first, that the current US-missile defense, being operative from fall 2004, is based upon the former experiences with missile defense, second, that missile defense closely associated with weapons of mass destruction has gained the highest priority in American national security policy due to the 9.11 attacks, and third, that the superior argument for establishing an American missile defense is to maintain global, long term political-strategic superiority.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

150. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia