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51. Forty Years Development of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

Author:
Tao Wang and Kailin Gao
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increasingly become an importantmethod for China to integrate into the world economy. This paper comprehensivelyreviews and analyses policy development and the changing pattern of China’s OFDIover the past 40 years. We divide the development into “restricted” (1978–1999), “relaxed” (2000–2016) and “regulated” (2017 onwards) stages. This paper alsoreviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries. Despite its generally positive ef ects, large-scale and unbalanced OFDI activitieshave alarmed Chinese policy-makers. Both developing and developed host countrieshave expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of someChinese overseas enterprises. Therefore, greater supervision and adjustment fromquantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China’s OFDI.
Topic:
Development, History, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

52. Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Assam

Author:
Stephen Naimoli and Kartikeya Singh
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Assam is the most populous and economically active of the northeastern states and thus acts as the nexus between the mainland and the northeast. Due to insurgencies and armed conflict spanning several decades, Assam struggled to deliver many basic services to its citizens, including electricity, and failed to attract major industries. Coupled with the state’s unique topography of Himalayan foothills, forests, and a massive floodplain dominated by the mighty Brahmaputra River, infrastructure development in the state has not been easy. However, with the settling of several conflicts, the state is poised to be the economic engine of India’s northeast and take its place as India’s gateway to southeast Asia. To do so, it is focusing on agriculture, led by a thriving tea industry and energy resources—the state accounts for 15 percent of India’s total crude oil and 50 percent of onshore natural gas output. On the power sector side, Assam has increased the share of its population with electricity access from 44.57 percent in 2015 to 100 percent in 2019. An important measure of the health of the state’s electric power sector is aggregate technical and commercial losses (AT&C), which measure line losses from transmission and distribution equipment, power theft, billing and collection inefficiencies, and customers’ inability to pay. Assam’s AT&C losses in 2015 were 24.2 percent. Under the state’s Power for All plan formed with the central government, the state’s utility Assam Power Distribution Corporation Limited (APDCL) would target AT&C losses of 18.15 percent in 2019. As of August 2019, this goal has virtually been met—APDCL’s AT&C losses are currently 18.2 percent. Under the central government’s Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme, which aims to improve the financial health of the country’s utilities, Assam has a target of 150,000 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption between 200-500 kilowatt-hours (kWh) by December 2019. As of August 2019, the state has deployed 15,567 smart meters for these customers, 10 percent of its goal. The state also had a target to deploy 31,000 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption of over 500 kWh per month by December 2017, but to date has only deployed 11,881 smart meters, 38 percent of its goal. Assam has a target to install 663 megawatts (MW) of solar power in the state to contribute to the central government’s target of 100 gigawatts by 2022. As of May 2019, data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy indicate it has installed 22.4 MW, 3.38 percent of its goal.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
India and Asia

53. The Art of Summitry

Author:
Judd Devermont
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It has recently become fashionable to host a regional summit with African leaders. The Arab states, China, the European Union, France, India, Russia, and Turkey all established high-profile diplomatic forums with African counterparts. Japan has been one of the pacesetters, inviting African governments, as well as multilateral institutions, to attend TICAD since 1993. TICAD’s seventh iteration, which was staged in Yokohama from August 28- 30, 2019, welcomed 42 African presidents, vice presidents, and prime ministers and witnessed the signing of 110 memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with African countries and private-sector companies.1,2 The United States chaired one such event, the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, in August 2014. While it represented a milestone in U.S.-African diplomatic engagement, the United States has not attempted anything on the same scale since. In 2016, the U.S. Department of Commerce with Bloomberg Philanthropies chaired a second U.S.-Africa Business Forum. President Trump met with eight sub-Saharan African leaders on the margins of the UN General Assembly in 2017 and separately invited Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari and Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta to the White House in 2018. If the U.S. government decides to resume the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, it has the potential to deepen ties between the United States and African counterparts, as well as promote trade and investment and advance signature initiatives.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Leadership, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

54. Innocent Bystanders

Author:
Judd Devermont and Catherine Chiang
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana warned of the repercussions of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions on African nations. Although largely absent from the discourse surrounding the so-called “trade war,” sub-Saharan Africa has suffered from its impacts. Uncertainty hovering over global and African markets has already undermined investor confidence, triggering drops in commodity prices and local currencies. A slowdown in Chinese production and global growth could threaten to throw African markets further off balance. U.S. protectionist measures stand out for their repercussions on African economies and U.S.-Africa relations. Tariff tensions risk indirectly undercutting U.S. goals of promoting African self-reliance, increasing U.S.-Africa trade and investment, and countering China’s expanding influence on the continent.
Topic:
Development, Hegemony, Conflict, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

55. Determinants of Developing Countries' Export Upgrading: The Role of China and Productive Investment

Author:
Dic Lo and Yue Teng
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper explores the determinants of developing countries' export upgrading measured by export sophistication. In particular, as a response to the recent debate on China's impact on developing countries' industrialisation, we examine a new hypothesis that the considerable growth in developing countries' trade with China may serve as a source of productive investment for their export upgrading. Dynamic panel estimations based on HS 6-digit export data on 62 developing countries during 1995-2014 show the positive effects of human capital, productive investment, and absolute gains from trade with China measured by income terms of trade vis-à-vis China. Mediation analysis finds that the positive effect of trade with China on export upgrading takes effect largely through its enhancing effect on productive investment, which supports our hypothesis. By contrast, China's direct export-downgrading impact is minor. Our findings suggest that, for developing countries, China serves more as a stimulator of capital accumulation for industrial development than a competitor in manufacturing market or a predator of natural resources. This provides an alternative to the widespread argument of China's crowding-out and re- primarisation impact on developing countries. The priority for developing countries is therefore the appropriate use of the gains from trade for productive purposes.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Investment, Exports, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
China and Asia

56. What Is the U.S. Trade and Development Agency?

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Romina Bandura
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) is a small independent federal agency whose mission is to help American “companies create U.S. jobs through the export of U.S. goods and services for priority development projects in emerging economies.” USTDA links American businesses to export opportunities in emerging markets by funding activities such as project preparation and partnership building in sectors including transportation, energy, and telecommunications. Since it was established 25 years ago, the agency has generated a total of $61 billion in U.S. exports and supported over 500,000 American jobs. In connecting American business to such opportunities, USTDA also links American technology’s best practices and ingenuity with U.S. trade and development policy priorities. USTDA is an instrument to enable American-led infrastructure development in emerging economies and, therefore, frequently sees increasing competition from government-backed Chinese firms and the challenge they can pose to American commercial engagement under the flag of One Belt, One Road (OBOR). OBOR is paving the way for Chinese engineering, procurement, and construction companies to prepare and develop infrastructure projects in OBOR countries in a way that favors Chinese standards, thereby exerting significant pressure to select Chinese suppliers. This creates a potentially vicious cycle—the more China builds, the faster their standards become the international norm, and, ultimately, this cycle could foreclose export opportunities for U.S. businesses and harm American competitiveness in global infrastructure development. U.S. exporters are increasingly requesting USTDA intervention at the pivotal, early stages of a project’s development, to compete in markets, such as the OBOR countries, where they frequently face Chinese competition. Of note, 40 percent of USTDA’s activities in 2016 were in OBOR countries across South and Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Although there are other agencies that may seem to do work similar to USTDA, there are various aspects that make it a unique agency. This paper provides a brief description of USTDA, its origin and evolution, the impact on the U.S. economy and its proactive collaboration across U.S agencies. Finally, it offers a set of recommendations for USTDA on how to improve its operations and strengthen its role in the developing world.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Communications, Infrastructure, Trade, and Transportation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, Asia, and North America

57. Made in China 2025 as a Challenge in Global Trade Governance: Analysis and Recommendations

Author:
Anton Malkin
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper provides a reassessment of Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) — China’s industrial policy framework aimed at helping the country overcome the much-maligned middle-income trap — in the context of global trade governance. It suggests that China’s industrial policies have been viewed too narrowly — without sufficient attention to longer-term global governance issues — by a large segment of the global business and policy-making community. The paper argues that the general aims of MIC 2025 and the policies that underpin them are not unreasonable, given the increasingly prevalent dilemmas in global trade that China’s leaders are grappling with. These include problems of international development arising from growing global industrial concentration — driven by the growth of the intangible economy — and China’s shrinking access to importing and developing technological components (such as semiconductor chips) that are increasingly characterized as “dual-use” by China’s trading partners. This suggests that resolving the concerns of China’s trading partners regarding China’s industrial policies requires global trade governance reform to ensure an equitable, rules-based global trading order that addresses the legitimate needs of developing and middle-income economies in acquiring foreign-owned technological components and know-how, for the purposes of economic development. The paper concludes by outlining specific recommendations for Canada’s policy makers in improving their economic relationship with China in the context of MIC 2025.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Governance, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, and North America

58. Demystifying the Indian Smart City: An Empirical Reading of the Smart Cities Mission

Author:
Persis Taraporevala
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The newly elected federal Government of India (GoI) launched the Smart Cities Mission (SCM) in 2015 with the stated purpose of improving the governance and infrastructural deficiencies that plague Indian cities. Missing, however, in the pageantry of the new programme is a cohesive understanding of a smart city. While the government documentation repeatedly implies infinite liberty for cities to self-define their understanding of ‘smartness’, the actions demonstrate that there is a larger idea of ‘smartness’ that the federal government seeks to implement. It is at this disjunction, between the rhetoric and practice of the Mission, that this paper finds its core research question – ‘What constitutes a smart city in India?’ Through a detailed reading of the government documentation of the top 99 cities, the paper argues that the there is a profound chasm between the professed objectives of the Mission and the strategies enacted to achieve these objectives.
Topic:
Development, Government, Infrastructure, Social Policy, and Urban
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

59. Census Towns in India - Current Patterns and Future Discourses

Author:
Shamindra Nath Roy and Jaya Prakash Pradhan
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The surge in census towns (CTs) during Census 2011 has drawn a lot of attention to the ongoing and future dynamics of these in-situ urban settlements in India. Using the village level information from the previous and current censuses, the present study attempts to identify the villages that can be classified as a census town in 2021. While the prevailing dataset bears some obstacles for a neat identification of such settlements, it can be observed that a fairly high number of rural areas may be classified as CTs in future, which currently accommodates a population of 17.9 million. While the current nature of regional distribution of these areas may not vary much over the future, their areal characteristics over time portray multiple spatial processes undergirding India’s urban trajectory. A lot of these prospective CTs are also relatively prosperous than their current rural neighbourhoods, which reinforces the persistence of similar pattern of urban transformation in future.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Urbanization, Census, and Rural
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

60. Engines without Drivers: Cities in India’s Growth Story

Author:
Partha Mukhopadhyay
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
It is now almost axiomatic that cities are the engines of growth. Historically, federal support programmes have focused on rural areas, but over the past fifteen years, the need to devise such programmes for urban local bodies has come to be recognised, with JNNURM in its various forms, being the most visible early manifestation. This trend has continued, even strengthened, in this government and among the menu of urban support programmes on offer from the Government of India, the vision of the city as the engine of growth is most clearly evident in the Smart City Mission, with its focus on area based development – like an engine within the city. Yet, even in the mainstream economics literature, while there is evidence for cities as places of higher productivity, there is less evidence for cities as drivers of growth – with learning being the primary driver and urban primacy being an important obstacle. The primary questions are whether cities are places of learning, whether there are identifiable mechanisms of such learning and the kind of city institutions – economic, social and political – that facilitate such learning. This paper will interrogate the empirical characteristics of such urban institutions in India in the context of the theoretical literature and learning mechanisms that emerge from international evidence. In particular, it will argue that the nature of the labour market, which is largely contractual, the transfer of rural fragmentation in social relations to cities and the absence of city-level political agency, all reduce the potential of the city as a location of learning economies. For cities to even have the possibility of being engines of growth, we need to ensure that drivers of these engines are in place and we have a mechanism to think about paths to follow.
Topic:
Development, Government, Urbanization, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

61. Lebanese Communities Abroad: Feeding and Fuelling Conflicts

Author:
Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon, a small republic of 6 million inhabitants, is both an ‘emigration prone’ country and a key destination for refugee movements and migrant workers. The presentation will specifically concentrate on Lebanon’s complex relationships with its diaspora communities. After reviewing Lebanon’s history of emigration, it will unpack the Lebanese diaspora’s complex interactions with war and post-war politics. While Lebanese diaspora communities are heavily engaged in their country’s development, economic, community and political activities, the presentation will show that their involvement does not challenge the nature of Lebanon’s sectarian-based model of governance. Rather the political fragmentation of Lebanese abroad replicates and perpetuates modes of sectarian mobilization. Understanding Lebanon’s fragmented “diasporic field” requires accounting for the state’s policy making towards its diaspora communities. The Lebanese state has so far not succeeded in developing an institutionalized policy making apparatus to channel Diasporas’ contributions nor has it extended substantial rights to its diaspora. It remains to be seen whether, and if so how, the recent extension of extraterritorial voting rights would augur a new era of diaspora involvement in Lebanese politics.
Topic:
Development, Diaspora, Immigration, and Voting Rights
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, Lebanon, and Beirut

62. The Rise of China as a Cybersecurity Industrial Power: Principles, Drivers, Policies, and International Implications

Author:
Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:
This paper examines China’s cybersecurity industrial development over the past two decades since the arrival of the internet in that country. This analysis takes place from a primarily security and technology perspective because the national security apparatus occupies a powerful presence in China’s cyber affairs. Moreover, the development of the cybersecurity industry is significantly driven by the development of technological capabilities. Key issues explored include: 1) Chinese decision-making and thinking on cybersecurity development within the context of the Chinese leadership’s general approach to development, national security, and technology advancement; 2) the nature and characteristics of recent Chinese cybersecurityrelated development strategies and plans; 3) the drivers behind the development of China’s cybersecurity industry, looking especially at market failures, national security rationales, and government intervention; 4) the proliferation of principal actors and coalitions in the Chinese cybersecurity industry and how this influences its development; and 5) the nature of the relationship between the state and cybersecurity firms, in particular examining four types of interactions: the state as a customer; state hiring of talent; the state’s direct regulatory power, and the state as an investor. The paper concludes by considering the international implications of China’s rise as an increasingly capable and confident cybersecurity power.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Industry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

63. Nationalism and development in Asia

Author:
Prasenjit Duara
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper identifies historic patterns in the dialectic between nationalism and development across various East, South, and Southeast Asian nations. Nationalism as the rationale for development is used by regimes to achieve high levels of growth, but also generates exclusivism and hostilities, often in order to integrate a political core. Popular nationalism has also dialectically reshaped the goals and patterns of development during the post-Second World War period. The region is divided into zones shaped by twentieth-century historical and geo-political conditions. Colonial and Cold War conditions were as important as internal political and ethnic circumstances. Turning points in the dialectical relationship were common within a region. More recently, a common transregional pattern has emerged with neoliberal globalization being accompanied by exclusivist nationalism.
Topic:
Development, Nationalism, War, History, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Asia

64. The South China Sea: Beijing’s Challenge to ASEAN and UNCLOS and the Necessity of a New Multi-tiered Approach

Author:
Christopher Roberts
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This Working Paper examines the South China Sea disputes and primarily focuses on developments since 2013 when the Philippines filed for international arbitration. The first part of the paper examines how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China reacted to the arbitral process and the potential for the Association to undertake an effective and unified position in the future. The second part of the article builds on the analysis by assessing the prospects for, and likely impact of, the long-sought Code of Conduct. In the process, it examines the continued viability of ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making approach, whether and how it could be reformed, and the potential benefits and viability of a new institutional arrangement with membership based on shared values and interests (rather than geography). The paper also argues that to enhance the possibility of redress on the issue, other key stakeholder states (such as Japan, Australia, India, and the United States) will need to be more strongly engaged and support claimant countries through a diverse array of activities. Such activities range from investments in capacity building to the provision of coastguards (if invited) to police and protect resources within the Exclusive Economic Zones of claimant states, as clarified by the July 2016 Arbitral Ruling.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, Police, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, Australia, and South China Sea

65. On the importance of triangulating datasets to examine Indians on the move

Author:
S. Chandrasekhar, Mukta Naik, and Shamindra Nath Roy
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Beyond summing up salient migration trends from existing data sources; a new working paper by researchers from Centre for Policy Research and Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR) builds on a critique of the estimations made by the Economic Survey 2017 to outline fresh ideas for developing leading indicators that will help inform policy. This is particularly needed because even as Indian policymakers are increasingly recognising the linkages between migration, labour markets and economic development, the lack of frequently updated datasets limits our understanding of migration.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Labor Issues, Economy, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

66. The Learning Generation: India’s Education Policy and Its Development Over Time

Author:
Kiran Bhatty and Ambrish Dongre
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Even as the reach of education has expanded enormously in India in the last few decades, it has been accompanied by differential access and the continuing spectre of inequalities. This inequality could take various forms but the extent to which opportunities, access, and outcome are distributed across different sections of the population, broadly describes a measure of the inequality that exists. There are different causes of inequality in education – the most common being the consequence of inequality in income, wages and living standards. But, in addition, social parameters also affect access to education. While some of these, such as caste, tribe and religious minority affiliation, might have bases in economics as well, others such as gender run across economic and social categories. Needless to say, girls from lower caste or tribal communities, thus suffer the burden of multiple disadvantages. While outcomes have dominated the discourse on education in recent years, in order to understand inequality more comprehensively, it is important to move beyond measuring inequality as the difference in the final outcomes and encompass the differences in equality of opportunity as well. The latter approach pays greater attention to the wider social, political and economic circumstances, which hinder individuals from accessing and competing at the same level. Various sets of contingencies affect the real opportunities people have, generating variations in the process of converting economic resources or social contexts into educational achievements. This approach follows the shift in twentieth century thought on inequality and justice, which made a distinction between “outcomes” (i.e., utility and welfare) and “opportunities” (i.e., primary goods; capabilities etc.). 2 The main arguments in this system of thought are that the process of acquiring outcomes must also be considered in determining justice (Dworkin, 1981) and that the process is dependent not only on initial endowments but on individual agency as well. This shift from a utilitarian approach, which focused on equality of outcomes to one that highlighted equality of opportunity as the basis for social justice marked a major shift in the philosophical traditions surrounding social policy. Not only did it give primacy to the “original position” (Rawls, 1971) it brought in the idea of individual responsibility, which had been the major criticism of anti-egalitarian thought. However, in recognizing the extent to which individuals are responsible for the outcomes they enjoy allowance must be made for the fact that outcomes may also be determined by factors beyond individual control. This is especially so for children, where inequalities experienced by them are predominantly due to their circumstance, and thus mostly beyond the pale of their agency. Primary and secondary education, for instance, take place when the person is still, arguably, below the age of consent, that is, the age at which children could be held at least partially responsible for the various choices they make (Paes de Barros et al 2009, Reomer 1998). In other words, the contribution of this tradition is to suggest that a just society could be achieved through ensuring equality of opportunity by providing “primary goods” (Rawls, 1971) or a set of “capabilities” (Sen, 1980) that would enable every citizen to achieve his/her life plan. Following this approach, we examine the broad trends in education in India to unpack the implications for social policy with respect to the objective of equality of opportunity.
Topic:
Development, Education, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

67. Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Development: For Sustainable Alliances in the South Caucasus

Author:
Ian Goodrich and Benoit Trudel
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The programme’s overall objective is ‘to contribute to the improvement of food security and nutrition in the South Caucasus through smallholder farmers’ representation in the governance processes’. It focuses on working with government structures and civil society actors to develop, implement and monitor food security-related strategies and legislation, ensuring that support mechanisms are in place for small-scale producers. The programme also supports national alliances and institution-building, enabling sustainable civil society engagement in the policy process, a critical component given Oxfam’s planned phase-out in 2017. This document particularly focuses on the programme’s use of the Social Network Analysis methodology to support the sustainability of its alliances.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Alliance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Asia, and South Caucasus

68. The Porter Hypothesis Goes to China: Spatial Development, Environmental Regulation and Productivity

Author:
Pedro Naso, Yi Huang, and Tim Swanson
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness in China. Exploiting exogenous changes in national pollution standards for three industries—ammonia, paper and cement—we test whether environmental regulation increases industry productivity. Our results show that the strong version of the Porter hypothesis does not hold, but that regulation might reallocate productivity spatially. We show that regulated industries that are located in newly developing cities see an increase in their productivity as compared to the same industries in other cities. This means that environmental regulation is more likely to drive the spatial distribution of productivity changes than it is to drive the pace and direction of technological change.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Regulation, Productivity, and Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

69. Export Crops and Civil Conflict

Author:
Joseph Felter and Benjamin Crost
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Many governments and international experts consider a move towards high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction. Little is known, however, about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict- affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop intensity to provide evidence that increases in the value of a major export crop exacerbate conflict violence in the Philippines. We further show that this effect is concentrated in areas with low baseline insurgent control. In areas with high insurgent control, a rise in crop value leads to a decrease in violence but a further expansion of rebel-controlled territory. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents gain strength from extorting agricultural exporters and that insurgent strength has a non-monotonic effect on conflict violence because strong insurgent groups can establish local monopolies of violence.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Violence, and Exports
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

70. Mapping Dilutions in a Central Law

Author:
Kanchi Kohli and Debayan Gupta
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
For the last two years, the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 has been in the eye of debate and discussed for the controversial changes the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government had sought to bring about through ordinances. Even though fate of the amendments rests currently with the Joint Parliamentary Committee report, several states have already brought about changes through Rules under Section 109 of the Act. An examination of these state specific Rules reveals they are headed towards: Adopting the changes proposed in the ordinances amending the central law; Diluting the applicability of the progressive clauses like consent or SIA; Clarifying procedures for implementation at the state level. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had replaced the Land Acquisition Act, 1894 with the newly enacted RFCLARR Act, 2013. Though critiqued for expanding the definition of public purpose to include the private sector, the new legislations had been welcomed by social movements, farmers groups and NGOs. This is primarily for the need for a Social Impact Assessment (SIA), the requirement for prior consent, food security provisions and clear compensation related provisions. What was also central to this discussion were the clauses which allow for unused land to be returned to original owners. The Rules framed by the States aim to make the process of land acquisition much simpler for investors. While certain States reduce the time period for the conducting of the SIA process or do away with it in its entirety, there are others who make reductions in the compensation award or modify the applicability of the retrospective clause. There are also States which directly adopt the provisions in the ordinance that aim to remove the requirement for consent from the land acquisition procedure. This working paper paper attempts to trace and analyse how the state governments have modified and built upon the central Act. It also looks briefly at litigation that has emerged especially around the applicability of the retrospective clause of the law, ie. which requires the return of unused land to original owners or reinitiating processes under the 2013 law.
Topic:
Development, Government, Law, Food Security, Land Law, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

71. Global Value Chains or Global Poverty Chains? A new research agenda

Author:
Benjamin Selwyn
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis is part and parcel of mainstream development discourse and policy. Supplier firms are encouraged, with state support, to ‘link-up’ with trans-national lead firms. Such arrangements, it is argued, will reduce poverty and contribute to meaningful socio-economic development. This portrayal of global political economic relations represents a ‘problem-solving’ interpretation of reality. This article proposes an alternative analytical approach rooted in ‘critical theory’ which reformulates the GVC approach to better investigate and explain the reproduction of global poverty, inequality and divergent forms of national development. It suggests re-labelling GVC as Global Poverty Chain (GPC) analysis. GPC’s are examined in the textiles, food, and high-tech sectors. The article details how workers in these chains are systematically paid less than their subsistence costs, how trans-national corporations use their global monopoly power to capture the lion’s share of value created within these chains, and how these relations generate processes of immiserating growth. The article concludes by considering how to extend GPC analysis.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Asia

72. Developing or Under-Developing? Implications of CHina's "Going Out" for Late Development

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Since the turn of the century, China’s influence on world development has increased enormously. This paper seeks to analyse major attributes of the influence of China’s “going out”, centring on the argument that the influence has been in the main conducive to the rest of the developing world. Specifically, this paper offers a critique of relevant, popular theses such as “China’s neoliberalization crowds out world development”, “China under-cuts the conditions of the world’s working class”, and “China exhibits a tendency towards imperialism”, etc. It is argued that, in the context of a neoliberal world economy that is increasingly speculation-oriented, China’s production-oriented activities can be seen as an important countervailing force. Whether this China influence is to continue to be conducive to world development in the future, or to turn to become detrimental, depends critically on the broader political-economic context.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Hegemony, Trade, and Influence
Political Geography:
China and Asia

73. China-Myanmar Relations Since Naypyidaw’s Political Transition: How Beijing can Balance Short-term Interests and Long-term Values

Author:
Chenyang Li and James Char
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In discussions on Myanmar's political reforms since the installation of a civilianised military regime in 2011, most analysts have focused on the bedevilment of bilateral ties between Beijing and Naypyidaw. To be sure, China has since become more attuned to the concerns of non-state actors with the opening up of Myanmar's political space as well as recalibrated its strategies in the face of renewed diplomatic competition from other countries in vying for the affections of the Burmese leadership. In acknowledging the corrections China‘s Myanmar policy has undergone, this article argues that Beijing‘s factoring in of Burmese national interests and development needs can help enhance its prospects. While a return to the previous robust bilateral relationship may appear inconceivable in the near future, this article concludes that there is still hope for Beijing in overcoming the challenges posed by Naypyidaw's political transition should it be able to keep up with the latter's evolution over the longer term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Myanmar

74. Exclusion, Informality, and Predation in the Cities of Delhi

Author:
Cities of Delhi Team
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Delhi is India’s richest city and as the capital of the nation has long enjoyed favourable treatment from the Centre. As the home to the country’s national bureaucracies, it also benefits from a large base of secure, well-paid, government jobs. Over the last decade the city has grown at an average real rate of 10 percent, and has benefitted from a dramatic increase in large-scale infrastructure development. Yet, despite these advantages, Delhi is a deeply divided city marked by layers of social exclusion. In the modern imaginary, the city represents the promise of freedom and opportunity. It marks a social space that is less constrained by traditional identities and one in which greater social interaction and density support economic dynamism. If development must, as Amartya Sen has so influentially argued, be based on strengthening basic capabilities, then the city can surely be a privileged site of capability-enhancement. Indeed, the migrants who flood the city often come in search of better livelihoods, education, health, and basic services. But as any resident of Delhi knows, the quality of such services varies dramatically across neighbourhoods, and the part of the city one lives in significantly impacts one’s ability to take full advantage of what the city has to offer. The Cities of Delhi (CoD) project starts with the simple recognition that India’s capital is marked by different settlement types, defined by diverse degrees of formality, legality, and tenure, which taken together produce a highly differentiated pattern of access to basic services. This report provides an overview of the findings from CoD. It builds directly on the place, process, and institution reports available at citiesofdelhi.cprindia.org, but in no way substitutes for these reports, all of which stand on their own as original empirical contributions. This overview is instead a synthesis, an effort to tie together the findings from the reports, to paint a broad picture of patterns of unequal access to basic services in the city and to provide an analysis of how these patterns of inequality are linked to structures and practices of governance.
Topic:
Development, Urbanization, Inequality, Economy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

75. The Road to 2014: Corruption, the Media and Parties' Electability

Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Corruption has become a perennial issue that has shackled political parties to a groundswell of unpopularity in Indonesia. In the run up towards the 2014 General Elections, it is envisaged that such an issue may jeopardise the electability of certain political parties. This report explores the influence of corruption cases on the elections by first highlighting the current status of competing political parties in the 2014 elections. The report then looks at the notable corruption cases that have an adverse effect on the political parties. The report concludes with four points. First, how utilising the "corruption-card" has become the new weapon of choice among political parties. Second, how the acute problem of corruption signifies that Indonesia's democratic consolidation process is far from over. Third, how shadowy affairs between political parties, their elites and the media can and should be constantly monitored. Lastly, the need to strengthen and continuous evaluation of the Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK) to prevent unnecessary interventions by political parties in the future.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

76. The Democratic Party Convention and Yudhoyono's Possible Game Plan

Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Democratic Party (PD) – the incumbent party that won a majority sweep in the 2009 general elections, conferring Yudhoyono his second presidency – is now experiencing a dramatic reversal of fortunes. The party's electability rate has dipped significantly from its heyday peak of 21 per cent in 2009 to a meagre 7 per cent in 2013. A convention based on democratic proceedings ha s been hatched as part of a last - ditched effort by PD with the express purpose of generating the requisite publicity before legislative elections commence in order to restore confidence among its voters. While the convention has been proceeding apace, its impact on the electorate and on the image of the party as a whole has been disappointing. This report analyses the reasons why PD's novel attempt at a democratic convention failed to rejuvenate the party like its predecessor the Golkar party did a decade a go. Included in the analysis are scenario analyses of the various outcomes of the convention, given the plausible choices that party Chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may take in consideration of the current dire status of PD.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Asia

77. Erbil Sends Oil, Ankara Gets Trouble

Author:
Olgu Okumus
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the international media reported crude oil flowing from the KRG to Turkey, doubts about the act's legality, political acceptability and opacity have surfaced. This oil trade is commercially enticing for energy-hungry Turkey, but is also politically risky. The Turkish government's lack of transparency regarding the KRG energy deal's economic and technical aspects has triggered domestic criticism - an especially risky proposition given the proximity of next year's election - and the KRG deal may also hinder international reliance on Turkey as a reliable energy hub. Turkey would be better advised to position itself as a partner for the export of Iraqi oil and gas, without making any distinction between federal and regional authorities. An Ankara-Erbil-Baghdad partnership based on normalized energy relations would help Turkey build new energy bridges with the EU, reducing gas prices for European consumers and strengthening Turkey-EU relations.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

78. The Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Net Assessment

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This study examines the key strategic risks that shape the stability and security of the Indian Ocean Region or IOR. This means examining risks that cut across a vast span of territory that directly affects both the global economy and some 32 nations–some within the limits of the Indian Ocean, but others that play a critical role in shaping the security of the nations in the IOR region and the security of its sea lanes and petroleum exports.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
India and Asia

79. Development: Advancement through International Organizations

Author:
Rohinton Medhora and David Malone
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The familiar world of international organizations principally devoted to development has been upended by two phenomena. First is the emergence of sustained economic success in the developing world (mostly in Asia, but increasingly also in Africa and, in a less spectacular way, Latin America) amid compelling, continuing need among the world's poor. Second, the slow-moving, serious financial and economic crisis of the industrialized world since 2008 has reordered priorities in many of their capitals toward domestic spending and away from costly international projects.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, United Nations, and Latin America

80. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:
Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

81. Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus

Author:
Robert Nalbandov
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public administration, this monograph extends the epistemological frameworks of the democratization school to the phenomenon of political culture. Successes and failures of the democratic institutionalization processes in these countries largely depend on the ways their institutional actors reacted to internal and external disturbances of their domestic political, econmic, and cultural environments. While Georgia's political culture revealed the highest degree of flexibility in accepting the externally-proposed institutional frameworks and practices, the bifurcate political culture in Ukraine impeded its democratic institutionalization, while the rigid political culture in Belarus completely stalled the process of institutional transformations.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Asia, Georgia, and Belarus

82. Costing a Data Revolution

Author:
Gabriel Demombynes and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The lack of reliable development statistics for many poor countries has led the U.N. to call for a “data revolution” (United Nations, 2013). One fairly narrow but widespread interpretation of this revolution is for international aid donors to fund a coordinated wave of household surveys across the developing world, tracking progress on a new round of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. We use data from the International Household Survey Network (IHSN) to show (i) the supply of household surveys has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years and that (ii) demand for survey data appears to be higher in democracies and more aid-dependent countries. We also show that given existing international survey programs, the cost to international aid donors of filling remaining survey gaps is manageable--on the order of $300 million per year. We argue that any aid-financed expansion of household surveys should be complemented with (a) increased access to data through open data protocols, and (b) simultaneous support for the broader statistical system, including routine administrative data systems.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and United Nations

83. The Impact of Trading with China on Botswana’s Economy

Author:
Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of trading with China on Botswana’s domestic and third markets. The paper also assesses the structure and magnitude of Botswana-China bilateral trade. Botswana’s trade balance with China has been widening over the past decade, with Botswana mainly exporting primary products and importing intermediate and capital goods, which are mainly used as inputs in the development of infrastructure in the country. The increased import penetration from China is associated with Botswana’s reduced total manufacturing output. China’s Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) exports gained market share from Botswana’s TCF exports in the third markets, that is South Africa. There is a need to consider ways of enhancing Botswana’s export competitiveness and there are also lessons to be learnt from China in relation to enhancing productivity in the TCF and other exporting industries.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Botswana

84. Transnational Challenges and Future Security Cooperation: The Australia-Canada Relationship

Author:
Sarah Norgrove
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The possibilities for future Asia-Pacific security cooperation between Australia and Canada are promising. Economic development and population growth mean that security challenges present themselves as opportunities. Australia and Canada are well positioned to influence regional approaches to transnational challenges such as crime, terrorism, piracy and environmental degradation, and to contribute to food, energy and cyber security. This paper explores the current state of security cooperation between Australia and Canada in the Asia-Pacific, and identifies opportunities to extend the relationship, focussing on collaborative efforts like economic and maritime cooperation, which may help tackle transnational security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia, and Australia

85. Engaging the Muslim World: Public Diplomacy after 9/11 in the Arab Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan

Author:
Walter Douglas
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Public diplomacy supports the interests of the United States by advancing American goals outside the traditional arena of government-to-government relations. Since 9/11, with the rise of al Qaeda and other violent organizations that virulently oppose the United States, public diplomacy in Muslim-majority countries has become an instrument to blunt or isolate popular support for these organizations. Efforts in this direction complement traditional public diplomacy that explains American policies and society to foreign publics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
America and Asia

86. ASEAN-Canada Forum and Public Symposium 2013: Reflections on an Inclusive and Equitable ASEAN Community in 2015

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The ASEAN-Canada Enhanced Partnership Plan of Action (2010- 2015) represents the latest effort in a relationship that dates back to 1977, the year that Canada became one of the first countries to be designated a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN. According to the Plan of Action, ASEAN and Canada will 'work and consult closely in responding to regional and international challenges, and in building an ASEAN-centred regional architecture which is open and inclusive'. They will also 'promote the development of enhanced ASEAN connectivity which will help foster the building of an ASEAN Community by 2015'.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada and Asia

87. The Security of Cities: Ecology and Conflict on an Urbanizing Planet

Author:
Peter Engelke
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Humankind recently crossed a historic threshold: over half of all human beings now live in cities. In contrast to most of human history, cities have become the default condition for human habitation almost everywhere on earth. Urbanization is proceeding rapidly and at unprecedented scales in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These regions are poised to join Latin America, Europe, North America, and Australia as having more people living in cities than in rural areas. Between 2010 and 2050, the world's urban population is expected to grow by 3 billion people—a figure roughly equal to the world's total population in 1950—with the great majority living in developing-world cities.3 Our species, in other words, is already an urban one and will become even more so throughout this century.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Urbanization, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Australia, and North America

88. Critical Energy Infrastructure Security Project Final Report

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
Türkiye'de kritik enerji altyapi unsurlari (KEAU) güvenligini mercek altina yatirarak mevcut durumu tespit etmek, bu konuda farkindalik yaratmak ve sorunlar ile çözüm önerilerini kamuoyunun ve yetkili birimlerin dikkatine sunmak amaciyla bir çalisma yapilmistir. Nitekim, "Kritik Enerji Altyapi Güvenligi Projesi" adli bu çalismanin tüm boyutlarini ve detayli sonuçlarini içeren bir rapor hazirlanmistir.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Islam, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

89. The EU's and China's institutional diplomacy in the field of climate change

Author:
Pietro De Matteis
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
This Occasional Paper aims at providing a new perspective on the relevance of climate change for the EU's external action. Considering its linkages with various areas such as energy security, economic growth and diplomacy, and indeed its importance in terms of future political stability, climate change is a major 'game-changer' in international relations. The issue of climate change, and how to deal with it, therefore presents governments with a significant opportunity to reshape the international order in the light of the major global transformations currently underway. The development of the climate change regime presents the EU with both an opportunity and a threat, in as much as it may either accelerate Europe's decline as a foreign policy actor or, on the contrary, reinvigorate its diplomatic ambitions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

90. ASEAN's Future and Asian Integration

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In a region largely bereft of regional organizations and long divided by the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been the most significant multilateral group for the past forty-five years. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has grown increasingly influential. While much of the West and most emerging markets continue to suffer because of the 2008 global recession, the leading ASEAN economies have recovered and are thriving. Perhaps most important, ASEAN has helped prevent interstate conflicts in Southeast Asia, despite several brewing territorial disputes in the region.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

91. The Renminbi Bloc Is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A country's rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging market economies, we show that in the last two years, the renminbi has increasingly become a reference currency which we define as one which exhibits a high degree of co-movement (CMC) with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a renminbi bloc, because the renminbi has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the renminbi than with the dollar, with the average value of the CMC relative to the renminbi being 40 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the renminbi, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the renminbi bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the renminbi's situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global renminbi bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s but complementary reforms of the financial and external sector could considerably expedite the process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

92. Developing the Services Sector as Engine of Growth for Asia: An Overview

Author:
Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The maturing of the manufacturing sector in many Asian countries, combined with the relative backwardness of its services sector, has made services sector development a top priority for developing Asia. The authors' central objective is to broadly survey and analyze the current landscape of the region's services sector so as to assess its potential to serve as an engine for inclusive economic growth. Their analysis indicates that services are already an important source of output, growth, and jobs in the region. However, its productivity greatly lags that of the advanced economies, which implies ample room for further growth. The impact of the services sector on poverty reduction is less clear but the authors do find some limited evidence of a poverty reduction effect. One key challenge for all Asian countries is to improve the quality of services sector data. Overall, while services sector development is a long and challenging process, creating more competitive services markets by removing a wide range of internal and external policy distortions is vital for improving services sector productivity. As important as such policy reforms are, complementary investments in physical infrastructure and human capital will also be necessary to achieve a strong services sector.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

93. Prospects for Services Trade Negotiations

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott, Julia Muir, and Minsoo Lee
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Trade and investment in services are difficult to measure, and the regulatory barriers that inhibit the free flow of services are hard to quantify. As a result, very little attention has been paid to dismantling barriers to services trade and investment. Rather, free trade negotiations tend to focus on liberalizing merchandise trade. This paper examines what has been achieved in both regional and multilateral compacts by surveying international precedents involving Asian countries in which services reforms have been included in bilateral and regional trade pacts. The authors then assess the prospects for services trade negotiations and explore how services trade negotiations could be pursued over the next decade through two distinct channels: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a plurilateral approach among groups of WTO countries. The authors find that in the case of developing Asia, free trade agreements have largely excluded services or have only committed to "lock in" current practices in a narrow subset of service sectors. This is also the case in agreements negotiated between developing countries, which have produced less substantial commitments to liberalize services than those negotiated between developing and developed countries. Multilateral negotiations on services have also underperformed, as substantive negotiations on services in the Doha Round never really got underway. To that end, the authors advocate a stronger effort by developing Asian countries to prioritize services negotiations in their regional arrangements and to expand coverage of services in those pacts to a broad range of infrastructure services that are included in other FTAs in force or under construction in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Asia

94. Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:
C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

95. Sustainable Energy Futures in Southeast Asia

Author:
Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, David Pumphrey, Gregory B. Poling, and Molly A. Walton
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Southeast Asia will be the next big growth engine in Asia. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, with a population of 525 million and a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion (when measured by purchasing power parity), are expected to grow almost 6 percent between now and 2030, according to the Asian Development Bank. For years, they have been eclipsed by China and India, but now their combined GDP is catching up with India and they could overtake Japan in less than two decades. For U.S. firms, these five members of the Association of South East Asian Nations—hereafter the ASEAN-5—are a trade, energy, and environment story.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

96. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Ebru Oğurlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus

97. Transportation and Communication Infrastructure in Latin America: Lessons from Asia

Author:
Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In Latin America, inadequate transportation infrastructure has been identified as an increasingly important impediment to the region's further integration in global trade and a significant factor preventing countries from properly taking advantage of the multitude of regional, plurilateral, and bilateral trade agreements signed in the past decade and a half. This paper examines transport and communications infrastructure initiatives in Latin American and Asian regional trade arrangements and finds several lessons Asia can teach Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

98. China and Afghanistan: China's Interests, Stances, and Perspectives

Author:
Huasheng Zhao
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
China holds clear, coherent, but relatively low-profile positions on Afghanistan. While staying largely with the mainstream of the international community on the issue of Afghanistan, China maintains an independent policy that reflects the peculiarities of Chinese interests, concerns, and priorities in Afghanistan. China has multiple interests in Afghanistan; however, domestic concerns about the security and stability of the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang overwhelm all others. China maintains normal and good relations with the Afghan government, takes active part in the country's economic rebuilding, and provides Afghanistan financial aid and other assistance. China supports the international community in its efforts in Afghanistan, but stays away from direct military involvement. China refrains from criticizing America's involvement in the war in Afghan- istan, but it doubts the war's efficacy, and China refuses to join the American Northern Distribu- tion Network (NDN) to Afghanistan. China dislikes the Taliban because of its close relations with the “East Turkistan” organization—a Uyghur separatist group—but China deals with the Taliban cautiously, trying to avoid direct conflict. China favors an Afghanistan governed by Afghans and hopes that the “Kabul process”—the transition to greater Afghan responsibility and ownership in both security and civilian areas—will have a successful end. At the same time, China also prepares for unexpected outcomes.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, and Asia

99. Dams, power and security in the Mekong: A non-traditional security assessment of hydro-development in the Mekong River Basin

Author:
Christopher G. Baker
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The rapid hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin brings with it a growing number of security challenges for state and regional policymakers. While the interrelated challenges range from local, human security issues, to regional-level concerns, all stem from the externalities brought about by hydro-development. This paper analyses the ramifications of the current 'hydropower gold-rush' on and around the Mekong. By specifically examining the non-traditional security concerns of food and water security and how these threaten to drive human insecurity, migration and instability within the region, it is able to challenge the dominant development and economic mindset that continues to encourage development at the cost of livelihoods. Instead of an economic hydro-boom as anticipated by many, continued dam building on the Mekong and its tributaries could result in a non-traditional security disaster characterised by severe food shortages, destruction of livelihoods and large irregular movements of people.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Asia

100. Myanmar: White elephant or new tiger economy?

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The new government in Myanmar has made a series of liberalising gestures over the past year, raising hopes that it is serious about meaningful political reform. Coming after national elections in November 2010, the release from house-arrest of the pro-democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, and by-elections in 2012, many observers are concluding that Myanmar is finally embarking on a process of genuine democratisation. Aung San Suu Kyi is among those who have expressed optimism over future changes in the country, with her confidence bolstered by the release of hundreds of political prisoners in recent months. As ties with Western governments slowly thaw, there is now a high probability that sanctions and other restrictions on trade and investment will be lifted over the next year or so, and foreign investors are taking note of the opportunities that could soon present themselves.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia