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1. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

2. The state of the war-wounded in northern Uganda

Author:
Dyan Mazurana, Anastasia Marshak, and Teddy Atim
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Few large-scale, structured surveys have been conducted on the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity committed by warring parties against civilians and how this relates to disability. Using data from a panel survey carried out in 2013, 2015, and 2018 that is representative of all of Acholi and Lango sub-regions in northern Uganda, this working paper reports the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity for individuals and households; their association with disability; and the resulting effects over time on people’s lives in terms of food security, wealth, access to basic services, and healthcare. The study contributes to an understanding of people who have experienced alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity that affect them physically and psychologically; the relationship between experience of these alleged crimes and their experience of disability; the effects of these crimes on their wealth, food security, and access to livelihood and social protection services; the effects of these crimes on their access to basic and therapeutic healthcare; and a better understanding of the key obstacles faced by victims of these alleged crimes when they are unable to receive basic and therapeutic healthcare.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

3. Generals vs. Islamists in Libya

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Regional rivals clash via proxies in Tripoli fight.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

4. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
Topic:
Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan

5. Wartime Educational Loss and Attitudes toward Democratic Institutions

Author:
Shelley Liu
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does civil war affect society and citizen interaction with politics? Civilians who live through warfare face numerous challenges that can have permanent effects on society even after peace is achieved. This project uses the Liberian civil wars as a case study to examine the impact of war through one channel – disruptions in education for an entire generation of children. The paper shows that negative effects of war on education and economic outcomes clash with citizen expectations for post-war democracy, leading to negative consequences for the democratization process. Specifically, educational deficiencies in this particular generation of young adults decrease job prospects, breeding resentment against the promises of democracy. This extends to the political sphere, such that those who lost out on educational opportunities due to war exhibit lower engagement, less desire to engage with democratic processes, and a greater rejection of democracy altogether.
Topic:
Civil Society, Civil War, Education, War, Children, and Youth
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

6. State Extraction and Anti-Colonial Rebellion – Quantitative Evidence from the Former German East Africa

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Does extraction increase the likelihood of antistate violence in the early phases of state building processes? While much research has focused on the impacts of war on state building, the potential “war‐making effects” of extraction have largely been neglected. The paper provides the first quantitative analysis of these effects in the context of colonial state‐building. It focuses on the Maji Maji rebellion against the German colonial state (1905–1907), the most substantial rebellion in colonial Eastern Africa. Analyses based on a newly collected historical data set confirm the correlation between extraction and resistance. More importantly, they reveal that distinct strategies of extraction produced distinct outcomes. While the intensification of extraction in state‐held areas created substantial grievances among the population, it did not drive the rebellion. Rather, the empirical results indicate that the expansion of extractive authority threatened the political and economic interests of local elites and thus provoked effective resistance. This finding provides additional insights into the mechanisms driving the “extraction–coercion cycle” of state building.
Topic:
Economics and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Germany

7. Enhancing U.S. Support for Peace Operations in Africa

Author:
Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The number of UN peacekeepers is at a record high, with nearly 110,000 uniformed deployed "blue helmets" worldwide, most of them in Africa. But the status quo is "untenable," warns Paul D. Williams, author and associate professor of international affairs at George Washington University, in a new Council Special Report, Enhancing U.S. Support for Peace Operations in Africa. Unrealistic mandates, unsustainable supplies of personnel, hostile host governments, and mission creep have undermined peace operations, Williams writes. "Given the growing interest in fostering a stable and prosperous Africa, the United States should wield its political influence to address these challenges."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

8. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

9. Limits of Control — Challenges to Spatiotemporal Analysis of Sub-State War

Author:
Christian Ickler
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Territorial control by violent (non-)state actors (VNSA) in sub-state war features prominently in many fundamental concepts in conflict studies. Though there have been attempts to measure this phenomenon or at least delimit it from a spatiotemporal perspective, these have so far been based either primarily on qualitative expert assessments or rely on dyadic event data to determine contested areas. In this methodological research paper, I present three approaches that can be used to estimate actor presence on basis of spatiotemporal approximation. In doing so, I focus on challenges and obstacles that can be encountered when measuring territorial control via the proxy of territorial contestation. Spatiotemporally disaggregated violent incidence data is used to analyze a small subsample of countries in sub- Saharan Africa in order to determine various ways of visualizing territorial contest. Further points of discussion include the impact of data aggregation, the availability of context data and analytical methods used for these evaluations.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Africa

10. REGIONAL POLICY FORUM ON THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The „Regional Policy Forum on the Responsibility to Protect‟ (R2P) was held from 11-12 June 2012 in Abuja, Federal Republic of Nigeria. It was jointly organized by the ECOWAS Commission and the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P). The main objective of the Forum was to raise awareness on the concept of R2P within the region and to critically examine existing ECOWAS policies and institutions for protecting populations against mass atrocities. The Forum also aimed at identifying frameworks, institutions, and practices within ECOWAS for prevention and effective response to mass atrocities. The Regional Forum brought together about 60 international, regional and national participants from the public and private sectors, UN, regional organisations, the diplomatic community as well as international and national civil society organisations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

11. Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis

Author:
Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of religion with regard to the violence experienced during the past 20 years in Côte d'Ivoire. It seeks to explain the differences in the level of violence over time by focusing on religion as an identity marker and as a social force that is mobilizable by religious and political actors. Religious identities were part of the growing in-/ out-group mechanism utilized in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1990s, while the political elites tried to politicize religion. In reaction to the violence and politicization, the religious elites founded an interreligious organization in the 1990s, and were successful in preventing a religious war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

12. Independent Oversight for Mining in the Eastern Congo?

Author:
Jason Stearns and Steve Hege
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The Center on International Cooperation (CIC) convened a group of leading non-governmental experts, on 3-4 December 2009, in a two-part discussion entitled: “Practical Mechanisms to Combat the Militarization of Natural Resources in the DR Congo.” This workshop aimed to facilitate constructive dialogue on the issue of natural resources and conflict in the DRC. Participants sought to identify common ground regarding existing and potential measures to combat the militarization of mining in the short to medium term. Over the course of these discussions, a clear consensus emerged surrounding the added value of independent oversight in order to both prevent mining from fuelling conflict as well to strengthen state capacity in the eastern Congo. In their most recent report, released days after this CIC event, the United Nations Group of Experts also included a recommendation for the establishment of such a mechanism. Through this concept note, CIC seeks to further develop how to operationalize this idea within the complex political and economic context of the eastern Congo.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

13. Could Al-Qaeda Turn African in the Sahel?

Author:
Jean-Pierre Filiu
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since its founding in January 2007, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has continued the jihadi fi ght begun by its predecessor, the Salafi st Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), against the Algerian government. Algeria's ability to contain the jihadis has forced AQIM to develop networks in the Sahara and to cooperate with smuggling rings there. Its mobile commandos, already active in Mauritania, now represent a serious security threat in northern parts of Mali and Niger, where they have abducted Westerners and frequently clashed with government forces.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, and Mali

14. Enhancing Civilian Protection in Peace Operations: Insights from Africa

Author:
Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The protection of civilians is a critical issue in African security. Nearly 600,000 civilians in 27 African countries have been massacred in the past two decades. Tens of millions more have been killed in battles, displaced, or perished from indirect causes of such attacks and the continent's armed conflicts. Not only are civilians the main victims of Africa's wars, but also an increasing number of United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions have called upon peacekeepers to protect them. For many, civilian protection is the very essence of peacekeeping. This is a driving rationale behind the unanimously endorsed and UN-mandated “responsibility to protect” principle—the idea that governments have a responsibility to prevent and curtail genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing. Civilian protection is also a crucial part of forging durable political settlements because any peace agreement that tolerates continued violence against civilians will not provide a solid foundation on which to build legitimate governance structures.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Human Welfare, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

15. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

16. Trading Life, Trading Death: The Flow of Small Arms from Mozambique to Malawi

Author:
Gregory Mthembu-Salter
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In a region apparently awash with weapons and plagued with rising levels of armed crime, Malawi is a welcome exception to these characteristics. In early 2007 there were only 9,320 legally registered firearms in Malawi excluding those used by the security forces, compared to just under 87,000 in Zambia (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 286) and nearly 4 million in South Africa (Gould et al., 2004, p. 133). Though a country of an estimated 13 million people, in the 5 years between 1996 and 2000 Malawi suffered just 2,161 reported cases of armed robbery (Mwakasungula and Nungu, 2004, p. 89). For 2005 the figure was 316 and for 2004 it was 263, according to figures provided by the Malawi Police Service (MPS). Even leaving aside South Africa, where there were 119,726 recorded cases of aggravated robbery in 2006 (SAPS, 2006), Malawi's armed crime statistics still compare favourably with the rest of the region. In neighbouring Zambia, for example, where there is a population of only 10 million people, there were 3,168 reported cases of armed robbery in the 5 years between 1998 and 2002 (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 294).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

17. TCHAD : LA POUDRIERE DE L'EST

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'Est du Tchad est une poudrière dont l'explosion pourrait déstabiliser l'ensemble du pays ainsi que les pays voisins et aggraver une situation humanitaire déjà désastreuse. Les conflits locaux fondés sur la raréfaction des ressources ont été exacerbés par des manipulations politiques nationales et régionales. La population a déjà énormément souffert des conflits internes tchadiens, de la crise du Darfour et de la guerre froide tchado-soudanaise. Les deux gouvernements, avec le soutien de leurs partenaires internationaux, devraient reprendre la mise en place de l'accord de Dakar, mais une conférence spécifiquement dédiée au conflit à l'Est du Tchad devrait également être organisée afin que les acteurs locaux et nationaux trouvent des solutions aux causes internes de la crise. Elle devrait être intégrée dans les structures existantes du processus de paix tchadien.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

18. Congo: Five Priorities for a Peacebuilding Strategy

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The deal struck by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda for renewed military and political cooperation is an important step forward, but is not sufficient to bring peace to the Kivus. Their five-week joint military operation did not produce significant results against the Rwandan Hutu rebels. Integration of the former insurgency that came over to the government's side after Laurent Nkunda was dropped as its leader is precarious, despite the 23 March 2009 agreement it signed with Kinshasa. An international monitoring group chaired by UN Special Envoy Olusegun Obasanjo and Great Lakes Envoy Benjamin Mkapa should work with the Congolese and Rwandan governments to support and implement a genuine and comprehensive peacebuilding strategy, while donors should condition their support on adoption and implementation by Kinshasa of a comprehensive package of judicial measures to fight impunity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Post Colonialism, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

19. Die Intervention der Vereinten Nationen in Somalia

Author:
Nils Goede
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Der Report analysiert die Entscheidungsprozesse des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen, die am 3. Dezember 1992 zu der Verabschiedung der Somalia‐Resolution 794 geführt haben. Fürdie Analyse wird der Multiple‐Streams‐Ansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen des Ansatzes warden Entscheidungssituationen als mehrdeutige Stimuli in Bezug auf Informationen, Ziele und Messkriterien betrachtet. Entscheidungen sind vor einem solchen Hintergrund oft weder rational begründbar, noch sind sie gezwungenermaßen linear‐kausal mit einem bestimmten Problem verbunden. Die Organisation ist stets mit einer hohen Anzahl von simultan auftretenden Problemen und Optionen konfrontiert und muss unter Zeitdruck bestimmen, welche Probleme und Handlungsoptionen auf die Agenda gesetzt werden und in welchen Themenbereichen eine Entscheidung ansteht. Lösungen werden hierbei zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt (künstlich) in Übereinstimmung mit Problemen und Akteuren gebracht und in eine Entscheidung transferiert. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Verabschiedung der Resolution 794 weniger auf die tatsächliche Problemlage in Somalia zurückzuführen war als auf Dynamiken des amerikanischen Wahlkampfs und den stetigen Einsatz des VNGeneralsekretärs Boutros Boutros‐Ghali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, United Nations, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

20. Conflict-Business Dynamics in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Raymond Gilpin and Richard Downie
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has enormous economic potential thanks to its rich mineral deposits and vast tracts of arable land. Historically, these resources have been exploited by predatory leaders and a host of subregional actors. The time is now ripe for the DRC to put years of war and economic underdevelopment behind it. The business community has an important part to play in promoting sustainable peace in the DRC. Business communities in Bukavu and Lubumbashi have managed to remain profitable in the very trying years following the signing of the 1999 Lusaka peace accord by showing great resilience and versatility, primarily outside formal channels. Congolese businesses face serious obstacles, including poor infrastructure, high taxes, extortion, and market distortions. However, respondents expressed relatively little concern about insecurity and violence, suggesting that these costs have been internalized or that other obstacles impose much greater costs. DRC businesses neither want nor expect handouts. Respondents would prefer assistance in removing barriers to trade, improving infrastructure, and reducing corruption. Respondents are broadly optimistic about the future and their economic prospects, and have a strong sense of being stakeholders in shaping society. This bodes well for the future of the DRC, provided public policy can harness this energy and not impede it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

21. From Uganda to the Congo and Beyond: Pursuing the Lord's Resistance Army

Author:
Ronald R. Atkinson
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This paper begins by providing the historical context for “Operation Lightning Thunder,” the Ugandan military's December 2008 incursion into neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo in pursuit of the northern Ugandan rebel group, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). The paper first presents (1) a historical background to the northern Uganda war that produced the LRA; (2) an overview of that war, which began in 1986; and (3) an analysis of the Juba peace process initiated in 2005 and its unraveling over the course of 2008.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

22. Liberia: Uneven Progress in Security Sector Reform

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since independence and for fourteen years of war, Liberia's army, police and other security agencies have mostly been sources of insecurity and misery for a destitute people. The internationally driven attempt to radically reform the security sector since the war's end in 2003 is a major chance to put this right and prevent new destabilisation. Security sector reform (SSR) programs have been unprecedented in ambition but with mixed results. Army reform, entailing complete disbanding of existing forces, has made significant progress despite lack of proper oversight of private military companies (PMCs) and of consensus on strategic objectives. But police and other security reforms are much less satisfactory. The bold approach to army reform was possible due to strong national consensus and the presence of a large, liberally mandated UN presence. Government and donors must sustain their support to maintain hard-won momentum in army reform and, once clear benchmarks are set, give a floundering police force more resources. The drawdown of the UN force, begun in the second half of 2008, underlines the urgency.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Liberia

23. Darfur: In Search of Peace

Author:
George Shepherd and Peter Van Arsdale
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
Darfur is located in the Western part of Sudan and borders Libya to the north, and Chad and CentralAfrican Republic to the West. It had an estimated population of seven million (prior to refugee and IDPdisplacements), representing more than 70 tribes, and is potentially rich in natural resources includingoil, copper, and uranium, as well as reservoirs of subsurface "Pleistocene water."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

24. The Somali conflict: The role of external actors

Author:
Bjørn Møller
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

25. Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Author:
Edward Thomas
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005, ending two decades of war between Sudan's central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. The CPA shares wealth and power between Sudan's powerful Centre, a newly autonomous South, and Sudan's other vast, diverse, impoverished peripheries. The bold peace gave new legitimacy to the two parties, who agreed to face their first competitive elections in 2009. Southern Sudan will have a referendum on self-determination in 2011.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

26. Six Months Since 1769

Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Since 2003, the United Nations have passed nineteen Resolutions on Darfur, including Security Council Resolution 1706, the only instance in history of a UN peacekeeping mission that was authorized and failed to deploy. On July 31, 2007, Security Council Resolution 1769 again authorized a multinational UN-led peacekeeping force for Darfur – the “hybrid” African Union/United Nations operation termed UNAMID. UNAMID officially assumed control of peacekeeping operations in Darfur on December 31, 2007, however, its deployment is well behind the timetable laid out by the Security Council. Force Commander General Martin Agwai and UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guéhenno have continued to warn that unless 2008 sees a substantial change in international action, UNAMID risks succumbing to Khartoum's obstructionism and facing a similar aborted fate as its predecessor mission authorized by Resolution 1706.
Topic:
United Nations and War
Political Geography:
Africa

27. A Comprehensive and Inclusive Peace Process for Chad

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Analysts, policy makers and experts are now accepting that the conflicts in Chad and Sudan have mutually reinforcing dynamics. Chad's internal political instability is having devastating consequences on the peace processes in Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR). The U.N. Security Council Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts on Sudan stated that Chad supports Sudanese insurgent groups with arms, ammunition, vehicles, food, training and safe haven Violations of humanitarian law and international human rights continue unabated in the region and violators in eastern Chad operate in an environment of almost total impunity. A new U.S. Government strategy must be created to stabilize Chad and bring to an end the continued degradation of conditions in the region. This strategy must work in parallel with the peace process for Sudan and with the efforts led by the “Contact Group” to normalize Chad-Sudan relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Peace Studies, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Sudan

28. Security System Transformation in Sierra Leone, 1997-2007

Author:
Paul Jackson and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:
The working paper series on Sierra Leone is part of the research programme 'Security System Transformation in Sierra Leone, 1997-2007'. These working papers present perspectives from both Sierra Leone and the United Kingdom regarding the implementation of activities broadly defined as security sector reform (SSR) in the period towards the end of and following the Sierra Leone war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

29. Political Violence and Democratic Uncertainty in Ethiopia

Author:
Lahra Smith
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Assistant professor at Georgetown University, where she teaches courses on African politics, civil society and democracy in Africa, and peace and conflict in East Africa. The pardon and release of thirty-eight political detainees, mostly from the leadership of the main opposition party, may give impetus to political negotiations in Ethiopia after more than two years' crisis and stalemate. Contentious and previously unresolved national issues, such as land and economic development; the institutional and constitutional structure of the Ethiopian state; and the best way to ensure equality of ethnic and religious communities, were brought to the fore during the past election cycle. However, after the election, much- needed national dialogue on these matters ended. It must be reinvigorated now that the political opposition's leaders have been freed. Citizen discontent has grown with the caretaker administration in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa and repressive local administrations. Elections for city and local government must be held. Further delays will undermine any democratic progress. The current Parliament includes members of several opposition political parties, though not the leaders who were imprisoned. Both the ruling party and the main opposition parties should make as many visible and meaningful concessions as possible to their political opponents. Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia in December 2006, its ongoing military presence in that conflict, and its unchanged, tense border stalemate with Eritrea have contributed to growing violence in the Horn of Africa and stymied domestic democratization.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and East Africa

30. Islands of Safety in a Sea of Guns: Gun-free Zones in South Africa

Author:
Adèle Kirsten
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
On 27 April 1994, millions of South Africans cast their votes in the country's first fully democratic general elections, signalling an end to more than 350 years of political rule by a white minority over the black majority. South Africa's history is one of colonial conquest, dispossession, segregation, and repression; one in which firearms played an important role in maintaining the border between the oppressed and the oppressor, between the colonized and the colonizer. With the state's implementation of apartheid policies after 1948, which further entrenched white rule, the military expanded its influence into all areas of social life, becoming a pervasive element in South African society. In response to the increased repression by the apartheid state, resistance organizations turned to armed violence as one strand in the strategy for national liberation. Many members of the military wing of the African National Congress (ANC) regarded themselves as soldiers fighting in a people's war. Although many held that South Africa was at war, it was generally accepted that the conflict was a low-level civil war, commonly referred to as 'low intensity conflict' (Cock and Nathan, 1989). As a result of several factors, such as internal mass mobilization against apartheid and increasing international pressure for a political solution to the South African conflict, negotiations for a new political dispensation started in 1990, culminating in a democratic constitution and the 1994 elections.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Island

31. A Complex Reality: The Strategic Behaviour of Multinational Oil Corporations and the New Wars in Sudan

Author:
Luke A. Patey
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper reports the results of a survey of almost all certified and in-conversion organic export operations in Uganda in late 2005. It covers products exported, company size and ownership, standards exported to, certification costs, total export values, value-added in Uganda, marketing channels, crop procurement systems, management of organic operations and the main challenges experienced by exporters. Findings include that numbers of certified exporters are growing rapidly. Export values are also growing, but more slowly: They reached USD 6.2 million in 2005. A handful of firms exporting coffee and cotton dominate the sector and this situation is likely to remain. Though the sector is maturing, most recent entrants are small, relatively weak and currently depend on donor support.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

32. Major Flaws in Conflict Prevention Policies towards Africa. The Conceptual Deficits of International Actors' Approaches and How to Overcome Them

Author:
Andreas Mehler
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Current thinking on African conflicts suffers from misinterpretations (oversimplification, lack of focus, lack of conceptual clarity, state-centrism and lack of vision). The paper analyses a variety of the dominant explanations of major international actors and donors, showing how these frequently do not distinguish with sufficient clarity between the 'root causes' of a conflict, its aggravating factors and its triggers. Specifically, a correct assessment of conflict prolonging (or sustaining) factors is of vital importance in Africa's lingering confrontations. Broader approaches (e.g. “structural stability”) offer a better analytical framework than familiar one-dimensional explanations. Moreover, for explaining and dealing with violent conflicts a shift of attention from the nation-state towards the local and sub-regional level is needed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

33. Garang's Death: Implications for Peace in Sudan

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) leadership has acted quickly so far to regroup and reorganise, but the loss in a fatal helicopter crash on 30 July 2005 of John Garang, the only leader the movement has known in its 21 years, creates an opening for spoilers on all sides to exploit any signs of uncertainty. The country is at risk of eventually losing a peace agreement that was already looking somewhat shaky.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

34. Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nearly four years after 9/11 , hardly a day passes without the "war on terrorism" making headlines, with Iraq, Afghanistan, Indonesia and now London holding centre stage. But away from the spot light, a quiet, dirty conflict is being waged in Somalia: in the rubble-strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination. The U.S. has had some success but now risks evoking a backlash. Ultimately a successful counter-terrorism strategy requires more attention to helping Somalia with the twin tasks of reconciliation and state building.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Indonesia, Middle East, London, and Somalia

35. The Use and Perception of Weapons Before and After Conflict: Evidence from Rwanda

Author:
Philip Verwimp and Cécelle Meijer
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The majority of Rwanda's population considers itself Hutu (more than 80 per cent), whereas a smaller group is referred to as Tutsi (about 15 percent). The Twa are the smallest minority. In 1994, after four years of civil war, Rwanda descended into genocide. The Tutsi minority was the main target, but Hutu and Twa who were not willing to participate in the killings were also murdered. In fewer than three months, more than 500,000 people were brutally slaughtered.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

36. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

37. Resolving the Three-Headed War from Hell

Author:
John Prendergast
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
An Introduction from Program Director Howard Wolpe: John Prendergast, Special Advisor to the President of the International Crisis Group, is one of the country's leading Africanists, with most of his twenty-year career focused on conflict resolution in Africa, American policy toward the region, human rights promotion, and humanitarian action. During the Clinton Administration, Mr. Prendergast served as a Special Advisor, Department of State and a Director for African Affairs at the National Security Council. He has worked for a variety of nongovernmental organizations and think tanks in Africa and the United States, and has authored or co-authored seven books on Africa.This paper is based on an address delivered at a February 7, 2005 program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, cosponsored by the Center's Africa Program and Conflict Prevention Project. Mr. Prendergast wishes to acknowledge the contributions to this paper of Colin Thomas-Jensen of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

38. Africa Policy Outlook 2004

Author:
Salih Booker and Ann-Louise Colgan
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
The U.S.' Africa policy will continue to be characterized by a duplicity that has emerged as the principal hallmark of the Bush Administration approach to the continent. On the one hand, Africa's priorities are being marginalized and undermined by a U.S. foreign policy preoccupied with other parts of the world. On the other hand, the Bush White House is callously manipulating Africa, claiming to champion the continent's needs with its compassionate conservative agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

39. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue in Africa: Lessons from Uganda

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
HIV/AIDS prevention and conflict prevention should go hand in hand. They are the two blades of the scissors required to cut the strangler's cord choking Africa. Some 2.5 million Africans will die of AIDS in 2004. One in four African countries presently suffers from the effects of armed conflict.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

40. Sudan: Darfur Humanitarian Emergency

Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The humanitarian emergency in Darfur is a direct result of violence and harassment directed toward the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masaalit civilian groups by Government of Sudan (GOS) forces and GOS-supported militia groups collectively known as Jingaweit. In early 2003, the Sudanese Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) stated that they would engage in armed struggle to achieve full respect for human rights and an end to political and economic marginalization in Darfur. On April 24 and 25, 2003 the SLM/A attacked GOS military forces at El Fasher in North Darfur. Following this attack, GOS military forces and Jingaweit militia initiated a more coordinated campaign of violence against civilian populations, including aerial bombardments to kill, maim, and terrorize civilians who the GOS claimed were harboring opposition forces. Conflict-affected populations have described recurrent and systematic assaults against towns and villages, looting, burning of buildings and crops, destruction of water sources and irrigation systems, gang rape, and murders. Throughout late 2003, armed conflict intensified, as GOS military and Jingaweit clashed with the two main opposition groups – the SLM/A and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – in Darfur. Following U.S. Government (USG) and European Union (EU) facilitated negotiations in N'Djamena, Chad, the two main opposition groups and the GOS signed a renewable 45-day humanitarian ceasefire on April 8 that took effect on April 11. This agreement included a GOS commitment to disarm Jingaweit militia groups and a protocol on providing humanitarian assistance in Darfur. The ceasefire agreement was renewed on May 22. Despite the ceasefire, Jingaweit violence against civilians continues in all three states of Darfur resulting in increasing displacement. Because the victims are displaced and vulnerable, they become targets of further violence. Even in villages where there is nothing left to burn, the fear of further violence continues to paralyze displaced populations, preventing voluntary returns. This cycle prevents many internally displaced persons (IDPs) from safely returning home, trapping them in camps or informal settlements for the foreseeable future. Out of an estimated population of 6.5 million in Darfur, approximately 2.2 million people are affected by the crisis, including more than 1 million IDPs and approximately 158,000 refugees who have fled into neighboring Chad. Humanitarian access to conflict-affected populations outside of the state capitals of Geneina, El Fasher, and Nyala was extremely limited until late May due to GOS impediments that blocked humanitarian access and relief operations. As a result of intense international pressure, the GOS lifted some of the restrictive travel regulations and announced a series of measures, effective May 24, to facilitate humanitarian access to Darfur. USAID's Disaster Assistance Response Team (USAID/DART) and other humanitarian agencies have deployed additional staff to Darfur to increase emergency response capacity. However, several obstacles remain, including continued delays in obtaining visas for relief personnel, travel restrictions within Darfur, difficulties in clearing essential relief supplies and equipment though customs, and GOS interference in relief activities that address protection of civilians and human rights abuses.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and North Africa

41. Sudan – Complex Emergency: Situation Report #4

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
For more than 20 years, Sudan has been adversely impacted by armed conflict, famine, and disease, largely associated with the civil war between the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Since war began in 1983, more than 2 million people have died, approximately 628,000 Sudanese have sought refuge in neighboring countries, and more than 4 million people have been displaced, creating the largest internally displaced person (IDP) population in the world. Until April 2003, when violence increased dramatically in western Sudan, conflict had mainly affected southern Sudan and the transition zone between North and South. In 1989, the United Nations (U.N.) established Operation Lifeline Sudan, a tripartite access agreement among the GOS, the SPLM/A, and the U.N. Under this framework, U.N. agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide humanitarian and rehabilitation assistance to vulnerable southern Sudanese. Since 1983, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided more than $1.9 billion in humanitarian assistance to Sudan.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and North Africa

42. Testimony of Roger Winter, Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance – “Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan”

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
I thank the Chairman and Members of this Committee for holding this hearing. Your interest in Sudan is helpful and can have useful repercussions on the ground in Sudan at a time when the situation there is more fragile and more complicated than ever. Several Members of this Committee have been involved in Sudanese issues for many years, and I can assure you that that fact is known and respected in the region. Your veteran wisdom, fresh ideas, and steady engagement on Sudan are welcome and appreciated by me, by my USAID colleagues, and by many Sudanese I have met in my regular travels to the region. Thank you for the opportunity to testify today.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and North Africa

43. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia

44. The Death of Barricade: Politics and Professionalism in the Post Sandinista Press

Author:
Adam Jones
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This article examines two decades in the life of Barricada, established as the "official organ" of the revolutionary Sandinista Front (FSLN) in Nicaragua, from its founding in 1979 through to its demise as a daily in 1998. it is argued that as distinct from the overriding "mobilizing imperative" of support for its Sandinista sponsor, and institutionally-generated "professional imperative" was also evident in Barricada's functioning from the early days of the paper's operations. After the FSLN's election defeat in 1990, this professional imperative-along with the political preference of most senior staff for "renovation" within the FSLN-resulted in the paper's establishing a significant degree of day-to-day autonomy fro its sponsor, and important transformations in its journalistic project. This semi-autonomy was foreclosed when the dominant ortodoxo faction of the Front engineered the dismissal of Barricada director Carlos Fernando Chamorro in 1994. Barricada then returned to its more highly-mobilized role as FSLN propagandist, but lost readers and advertising revenue as a result, finally closing in February 1998. The final section of the paper situates the experience of Barricada in the comparative context of mass media and political transitions worldwide.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Central America

45. Raising Armies in a Rough Neigh-bourhood: Soldiers, Guerillas and Mercenaries in Southern Africa

Author:
Bjørn Møller
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
While the instruments of war, including the weaponry, are surely important, one of the timeless verities of war is that it is fought by people against other people. It therefore matters how armies are raised, as this has, among other things, an impact on the loyalty, “morale” and fighting spirit of the troops, hence also on the military power available to the State. The choice between a militia structure, universal conscription or professionalization (or even privatization) also has implications for civil-military relations and may thus have a (beneficial or detrimental) impact on state-building.
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
Africa

46. Re-Armament in Sierra Leone: One Year After the Lomé Peace Agreement

Author:
Eric Berman
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
On 7 July 1999, the government of Sierra Leone and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) signed the Lomé Peace Agreement in an effort to end over eight years of civil war between the government and the RUF. This confl ict resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of more than 2 million people – well over one-third of the total population – many of whom are now refugees in neighbouring countries. A central component of this agreement called for the RUF to disarm. But this did not happen. Instead, a year later, the RUF leader, Foday Sankoh, was in the custody of the Sierra Leonean government and the future of the peace accord was in grave doubt.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and War
Political Geography:
Africa

47. A Humanitarian Practitioner's Guide to International Human Right Law

Author:
William G. O'Neill
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The term “human rights” evokes a wide variety of reactions. Many of those working in international development, commercial lending, and diplomatic institutions regard human rights as highly political and confrontational intrusions on their activities. Many in the international assistance community and the military view human rights as a threat to “neutrality” that may undermine access to populations needing assistance or the success of peacekeeping operations. Some governments in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa dismiss the concept of human rights as a western creation that fails to respect local culture and traditions and undermines state sovereignty. Perhaps the most favorable views of human rights are held by the international public, which is appalled by flagrant onslaughts against fundamental human decency and dignity represented by such practices as genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the use of starvation of civilian populations as a weapon of war.
Topic:
Human Rights and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Asia