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Begin New Search Topic International Political Economy Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution United Nations University

1. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2. Determinants of State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Assessment Based on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project

Author:
David Carment, Stewart Prest, and Yiagadeesen Samy
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper is derived from our ongoing research on fragile states funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to help policymakers and analysts make decisions on where and how to allocate aid, especially in fragile state environments. In order for development assistance to have a measurable and positive impact on fragile states, it is necessary to understand both how and why they become fragile. First, we reconceptualize the meaning of state fragility with equal attention given to the authority, legitimacy and capacity of a state, collectively referred to as ALC. Measures of these ALC components corresponding to six different categories of state performance—economics, governance, security and crime, human development, demographics, and the environment—are collected for all countries for the period 1999-2005. Initial testing of our fragility index shows that fragility is driven by a number of factors, of which the level of development seems to be more important. We complement this analysis by examining state fragility using the ALC framework. Overall, the approach presented has the distinct advantage of identifying country -specific patterns of fragility while at the same time allowing for broad strategically relevant measures of comparative performance that can be of use to policymakers regarding allocation of aid at the sectoral and programming level. Notwithstanding the fact that aid may be allocated for political and strategic reasons, and that fragile states are underfunded, we argue that aid that does flow to fragile states could be better targeted. Specifically, it could strengthen the underlying determinants of fragility by addressing fragile states' distinct and country-specific weaknesses in authority, legitimacy and capacity. Finally, we discuss policy implications of our analysis and directions for future research.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and International Political Economy

3. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4. State Fragility: Concept and Measurement

Author:
Mark McGillivray and Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The international donor community has grave concerns about the prospects for poverty reduction in what it terms fragile states. A state is classified as fragile if its country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) score falls below a particular threshold. Recognizing that all states are fragile to varying degrees, this paper questions the method used by the international community to deem a country fragile. This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to deem a country as fragile. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country fragility classifications. The paper applies its framework to 76 low-income countries, for which the CPIA data are publicly available. The fragile state group that this framework provides is compared to that which the international donor community has constructed.
Topic:
Development and International Political Economy

5. The Evolution of Personal Wealth in the Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Andrei Rachinsky and Sergei Guriev
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study discusses the evolution of personal wealth in transition economies. While data availability is still a problem, the available indirect evidence suggests privatization has resulted in an increase in personal wealth but also in personal wealth inequality, especially in the countries that lagged behind in building effective institutions. Another source of wealth inequality is the high income inequality due to wage decompression coupled with the low saving rates among the poor. We pay a special attention to one of the most noticeable implications of this rise in personal wealth and wealth inequality— the emergence of so called 'oligarchs'. Using the comprehensive dataset of Muscovites' incomes we show that surveys that do not take into account the first- and second-tier rich (billionaires and millionaires) may drastically underestimate inequality.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Soviet Union

6. The Distribution of Household Wealth in India

Author:
D. Jayaraj and S. Subramanian
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reviews the principal source of India's wealth distribution statistics, which is constituted by the five decennial Reserve Bank of India National Sample Survey Organization Surveys on Debt and Investment of 1961-62, 1971-72, 1981-82, 1991-92, and 2002-03. The data available are described, critically appraised, and analyzed to present some salient findings in terms of the levels of debt, the levels of asset-holdings across the states of the Indian Union and over time, wealth composition, and aspects of vertical and horizontal inequality in the distribution of wealth. The centrality of land and real estate in the wealth status of India is underlined, and some broad aspects of redistributive anti-poverty policy are spelt out.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
India and Asia

7. Gender and the Distribution of Wealth in Developing Countries

Author:
Cheryl R. Doss and Carmen Diana Deere
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Only recently has it been recognized that women may not share in the wealth of men, even within the same household or family. Moreover, there is growing evidence that the gender distribution of wealth matters. This paper first reviews the available evidence for developing countries on the gender asset gap and finds that it is significant. It then considers the constraints on women's asset ownership with particular attention to the role of legal marital and inheritance regimes. The paper then turns to a more detailed examination of women's land ownership in Latin America and Africa. The final section considers the impact of women's land ownership on household income and welfare.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

8. Household Wealth in Latin America

Author:
Seymour Spilerman and Florencia Torche
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides a descriptive analysis of wealth ownership and wealth inequality in Latin American countries, using diverse published sources and primary data analysis for 16 nations. We produce estimates of the distribution of home ownership, land, and financial assets, and find very high wealth concentration in all these types of assets, with the partial exception home ownership. The relevance of informal assets and the historical patterns of wealth accumulation and concentration since colonial times are discussed. Mechanisms of intergenerational wealth transmission are analyzed for the Chilean case.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

9. The Structure and Performance of Ethiopia's Financial Sector in the Pre- and Post-Reform Period with a Special Focus on Banking

Author:
Alemayehu Geda
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1992 Ethiopia has been engaged in liberalizing its financial sector. The hallmark of the strategy is gradualism. The approach is not without problems especially from Bretton Woods Institutions that saw the reform as a sluggish process. This study examines this liberalization program by analyzing the performance of the sector before and after the reform. The study notes that given the nascent development of the financial sector in the country, the relatively good shape in which the existing financial institutions find themselves, and given that supervision and regulation capacity of the regulating agency is weak, the government's strategy of gradualism and its over all reform direction is encouraging. However, we argue for charting out clearly defined time frame for liberalization and exploring the possibility of engaging with foreign banks to acquire new technology that enhance the efficiency of the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

10. A Contract Perspective on the International Finance Facility

Author:
George Mavrotas and Tun Lin
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper is a first attempt to develop a theoretical model using a short-term vis-á-vis long-term contract framework within which donor countries' endorsement or rejection decision towards the recently proposed International Finance Facility (IFF) is rationalized. The current foreign aid system is portrayed as being similar to a series of short-term contracts, where donor countries are able to adjust the aid amount to reflect environmental change (broadly defined to take into account changes in public opinion, domestic situation, etc.). The benefit of this system is in its flexibility. Frontloading aid, on the other hand, as proposed by the IFF proposal, has the benefit of smoothing out the flows over time. In the model presented in this paper, donor countries balance these two contract schemes to determine the endorsement or rejection of the IFF proposal. By using historical aid data covering the period 1990-2003 for all DAC donor countries, our empirical analysis shows the payoffs and relative advantages of these two contract schemes.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

11. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone

Author:
David Fielding, Kevin Lee, and Kalvinder Shields
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we fit a VECM in output and prices to data from ten countries of the CFA Franc Zone. This model allows for various cross-country interactions in both the short run and the long run. The VECM parameters are used to estimate persistence profiles of different kinds, in order to identify the degree of homogeneity in the way in which the countries respond to macroeconomic shocks. In this way we can shed light on questions about the likely size of the costs incurred from these countries' membership of a monetary union.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

12. Monetary Policy in the Franc Zone: Estimating Interest Rate Rules for the BCEAO

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines to what extent the central bank for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (BCEAO) has used interest rate policy in response to domestic economic developments. We show that while in the long run the BCEAO matches changes in French (Eurozone) interest rates one for one, in the short run it retains freedom to react to domestic economic variables, such as inflation, the output gap, its foreign exchange position and government borrowing.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and West Africa

13. Poverty and Growth in the WAEMU after the 1994 Devaluation

Author:
Jean-Paul Azam
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper brings out that poverty increased massively in the wake of the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc, despite a significant recovery of economic growth. Although this increase affected all the social groups, it fell mostly on the urban poor. An analytical model is presented, which explains this puzzle by the stratification of the labour market, assuming that the formal sector workers are at the same time the investors in the informal sector. Then, capital intensity in the latter increases as the former anticipate the cut in formal sector wages that the long-awaited devaluation brings about. Ex post, they run down their assets for consumption-smoothing purposes, thus de-capitalizing the informal sector firms, with a negative impact on incomes in the (urban) informal sector.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

14. The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa

Author:
David Fielding and Kalvinder Shields
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers a number of dimensions of integration including the volume of bilateral trade, real exchange rate volatility and the magnitude of cross-country business cycle correlation.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

15. Monetary Policy in the CFA Zone: Country-level Credit Policy

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines whether the BCEAO has made use of the various policy instruments at its disposal for steering credit in the individual CFA zone member countries to complement interest rate policy at the zone level. We estimate whether private sector credit has responded systematically to different monetary policy variables using iterated 3-stage least squares regressions for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal and Togo. If we constrain the coefficient estimates there is some support for the hypothesis that the BCEAO has contracted private sector credit in response to a higher inflation differential with France. However, there seems to be no policy rule to restrict private sector credit in response to increasing government borrowing from the central bank or increased foreign borrowing. If the coefficient estimates are unconstrained, there does not appear to be any systematic policy to control credit expansion at the domestic level.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and France

16. The Costs and Benefits Analysis of CFA Membership: The Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime for the CFA Countries Zone

Author:
Mireille Linjouom
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper determines an analytical framework defining the choice of an optimal exchange rate regime for a typical CFA country. The policymakers behave strategically to decide to adopt alternative exchange rate regime by minimizing their loss function under specific constraints like economic characteristics and political consideration. One concludes a CFA economy with less inflationary propensity and greater external shocks volatility will tend to select a flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, the model suggests that a CFA country with a more unstable political system and a higher propensity to apply inflationary policies will prefer a flexible arrangement than a fixed one.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

17. An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting

Author:
Simeon Coleman
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. Based on the Blanchard-Quah methodology, we identify shocks to the changes in real exchange rate and output using a structural VAR (SVAR) model for these small open economies. Our finding that the real exchange rate innovations in the CFA franc zones are largely independent of domestic variables suggests that external influence is more important in the CFA zones. There is also some evidence that money demand shocks are more significant in the non-CFA franc zone countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

18. Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty: Time-series and Cross-country Evidence from the CFA-zone Countries of sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Michael Bleaney and Akira Nishiyama
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The causes of the slow growth of CFA countries are investigated. There is little difference in this respect between the CFA and other sub-Saharan African countries. Since 1970, GDP growth in the CFA countries has shown no significant trend but one or two medium-term fluctuations (positive in 1979-83 and negative in 1989-93). Internationally, the income share of the poorest 20 per cent of the population of any country has improved most in poor countries, and there is no evidence that this does not apply to CFA countries also.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

19. How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Author:
David Fielding
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) has a history of monetary stability and low inflation. Nevertheless, there is substantial variation in relative prices within some UEMOA countries, in particular in the price of food relative to other elements of the retail price index (IHPC). Using monthly time-series data for cities within the region, we analyze the impact of changes in monetary policy instruments on the relative prices of components of the IHPC. We are then able to explore how the burden of monetary policy innovations is likely to be shared between the rich and poor.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

20. A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights

Author:
Ernest Aryeetey
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Efforts to realize the issue of development-focused Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been on-going for many years. Recently, however, the campaign first gained a new momentum immediately after the Asian financial crises with the new liquidity problems of developing nations following the collapse of private capital markets. Currently the search for financing options towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals drives the interest in development-focused SDRs. Extending the uses to which SDR can be put is derived from the growing demands on the international financial system to respond to the development finance needs of poor nations. Apart from the need to provide emergency funds in times of crises and the whole area of crisis prevention, increasingly the facilitation of development in poor countries and assistance to make the best policy decisions is considered crucial.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia