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2. EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Korea, and Poland
3. Examining Changes in Regional Cooperation in Central Europe from a Polish Perspective
- Author:
- Tomasz Żornaczuk
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Visegrad Group (V4), until recently the most active and multidimensional cooperation platform in Central Europe, does not serve currently to strengthen the voice of the region on the most essential issues concerning its security. This is because Hungary’s stance on Russia’s attack on Ukraine is different than that of its partners. That is why Poland is tightening relations with the other Visegrad countries—Czechia and Slovakia. At the same time, Poland is also intensifying cooperation with the Baltic states, which has its source in joint actions on security and eastern affairs in the years preceding the war.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Central Europe, Slovakia, and Czechia
4. What is the Significance of Prigozhin's Revolt for Russian Security Policy?
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On the night of 23-24 June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group private military company, which has been fighting in Ukraine and operating elsewhere, stood up to the Russian Ministry of Defence and began an armed march on Moscow. However, in the end he and his forces did not storm the capital, officially as a result of negotiations led by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka. Prigozhin’s actions will worsen the morale of Russian soldiers and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine but will not change Russia’s hostile actions towards NATO countries.
- Topic:
- NATO, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Yevgeny Prigozhin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
5. EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the EU’s development cooperation policy has evolved, moving away from an approach based on poverty eradication and the needs of partner countries to focusing more on its own interests. This change is supported by the majority of EU members. This gives the EU the opportunity to exert strategic influence in the world but risks the loss of its unique identity as an altruistic donor and attractive partner in development cooperation. The change in the Union’s approach is consistent with the position of Poland, which can use it to reform and strengthen its development aid system.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
6. Syria returns to the Arab League
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
- Topic:
- International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
7. Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Reconstruction, European Union, Assets, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
9. West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Investment, Rivalry, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
10. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
11. Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains
- Author:
- Piotr Dzierżanowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.
- Topic:
- Globalization, European Union, Economy, Business, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
12. Building a Coalition - the U.S. Faces Down Competition with China in the Chip Sector
- Author:
- Damian Wnukowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the U.S. has intensified its international efforts to limit China’s ability to produce the most advanced chips. The result includes the introduction by Japan and the Netherlands of restrictions on the export of modern machines for chip production. In response, China is trying to attract foreign investment and develop its own potential in this sector. The U.S. actions may significantly slow the pace of China’s technological development and economic growth and limit its potential to further strengthen its military capabilities. This may make it difficult for China to support Russia with dual-use products and render possible offensive actions against Taiwan harder.
- Topic:
- Economy, Production, Semiconductors, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
13. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa
14. Lavrov Visits Latin America to Try to Lure It to Russia's Side
- Author:
- Bartłomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 17-21 April, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. During his trip, he argued that the goals and interests of Russia and most Latin American countries coincide. He also repeated false Russian narratives, for example, about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, portraying Russia as a victim of the policy of the West. While he used his stay in Brazil to legitimise the Russian narratives, in other countries, it was mainly about consolidating Russia’s ties with their authoritarian regimes, including cooperation on evading sanctions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Latin America
15. U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy-The Consequences for Its Allies
- Author:
- Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Infrastructure, Investment, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America
16. Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary
- Author:
- Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law is the newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.
- Topic:
- European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
17. Refugees from Ukraine Adapting to the European Labour Market
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Due to the length of the war in Ukraine, more and more refugees from this country have decided to take up employment in the EU. Preliminary data indicate that they are integrating into European labour markets faster than refugees from other regions. However, the mismatch between their jobs and qualifications remains a challenge. Despite the refugees’ inclusion, the deteriorating economic situation in Europe may lead to negative perceptions in host countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Refugees, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
18. China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China perceives the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an expression of resistance to the U.S. and NATO hegemony and an important element of building a new international order that marginalises the West. Based on this, China is strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia, striving to weaken the international position of the U.S., the EU, and their partners, while testing reactions to a possible escalation of Chinese actions towards Taiwan, for example. President Xi Jinping expressed this policy course during his March visit to Russia. At the same time, China is trying to gain support from the countries of the Global South. This approach means a continuation of China’s assertive policy towards the European Union, among others.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
19. With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy
- Author:
- Zuzanna Nowak and Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, European Union, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
20. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise
- Author:
- Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Global Focus
21. Implications of the Incursions into U.S. and Canadian Airspace
- Author:
- Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the first half of February, a series of serious incidents happened in the airspace of the U.S. and Canada involving shootdowns of four objects, with at least one confirmed as a Chinese balloon, likely used for intelligence. The U.S. administration is conducting an investigation to explain the various platforms, the equipment onboard, and their mission. Because further incidents cannot be excluded, some changes in the rhetoric of the Chinese government should be expected, as well as a higher readiness of air defence networks of the powers.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Territory, and Airspace
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, North America, and United States of America
22. EU Seeks Greater Transparency in Wake of EP Corruption Scandal
- Author:
- Tomasz Zając
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The European Parliament (EP) corruption scandal, which began with the arrests of then current or former MEPs last December, showed that the mechanisms in place to ensure institutional transparency do not sufficiently protect against the influence of non-EU countries. In addition, the parliament’s internal standards are of limited effectiveness as penalties for non-compliance are not very severe and rarely applied. The effect of the scandal will most likely be to further increase the transparency of EP conduct. The probability of a new body to monitor ethical issues in EU institutions has also increased.
- Topic:
- Corruption, European Union, Transparency, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe
23. EU Member States Take a Position on the Emigration of Russians
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł and Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Hundreds of thousands of Russians have decided to emigrate as Vladimir Putin’s regime has increased repression of citizens with dissenting views of the government or unwilling to participate in the war in Ukraine. Some of them are trying to enter the EU, justifying it with humanitarian reasons. However, the Member States, which decide the granting of visas and residence permits, have different practices. Elaborating a unified approach remains a major challenge for the EU.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Civilians, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
24. Member States Seek to Unmask Russian Espionage in the EU
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russian intelligence services are actively developing their networks of spies in the EU. While Member States are trying to counteract this and are undertaking coordinated action, many of them have limited operational capacities. Their cooperation at the EU level is hampered by differences in threat perceptions and a lack of mutual trust. With the aim of developing common competences, EU diplomacy can inform Member State societies about the growing scale of espionage threats by publishing regular reports on this subject.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, European Union, Espionage, and Threat Perception
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
25. Evolution, not Revolution: Japan Revises Security Policy
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In December last year, the government of Kishida Fumio adopted three documents adapting Japan’s security policy to the deteriorating international situation. Its security and national defence strategies highlight challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea, as well as an increase in non-military threats. A third document specifies the need for a record increase in defence spending. Japan’s readiness to deepen cooperation with the U.S. and European countries and its criticism in its assessment of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine create the conditions for the further development of Japan’s cooperation with NATO and the Polish-Japanese dialogue on security.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea
26. Iceland Makes Changes to Foreign Policy after Russia's Aggression against Ukraine
- Author:
- Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine forced Iceland to adjust its foreign policy. As a small country without armed forces but covered by security guarantees as a NATO member, it wants to strengthen ties with its allies while resigning from contacts with Russia. Its partnership with the U.S. and the Nordic countries, as well as activity in international organisations and relations with Central European EU Member States, including Poland, have become even more important to the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Iceland
27. Cyberattacks Integral to Russia's Political and Military Strategies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- To destabilise democratic countries that support Ukraine, Russia employs cyberattacks on the target state’s public institutions and critical infrastructure. These activities have clearly intensified since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 and is in line with the implementation of Russian military strategy. In this context, it would be beneficial within the EU and NATO to develop joint action plans to respond to future threats in cyberspace.
- Topic:
- NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Cyberspace, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
28. The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Bombing
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
29. The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, Schengen, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Croatia
30. Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
31. Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy
- Author:
- Andrzej Dąbrowski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.
- Topic:
- Markets, Science and Technology, Autonomy, Industry, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Microchips
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
32. The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- twitter The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine 174 08.11.2022 India has not condemned Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, which stems from historical ideological ties, as well as their strategic and military cooperation. However, the war has led to unfavourable changes from India’s point of view—the weakening of Russia, the collapse of its cooperation with the West, and a growing dependence on China. As a result, Russia is diminishing in importance as a key partner of India, including a supplier of weapons and technology. In the long run, closer cooperation between India and the U.S. and EU countries in the field of security and energy will help to move India away from Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and India
33. Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Germany
34. North Korea Continues to Develop Its Nuclear Forces
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
35. Japan Focuses Policy on Economic Security
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Japan is stepping up efforts to increase its economic security. In August, some new regulations came into force aimed at strengthening, among others, the resilience of supply chains and developing technological potential. Japan is thus responding to the challenges of China’s policy, the U.S.-China rivalry, and global technological progress. Improving economic security will require the government to cooperate with both Japanese business and international partners, including the U.S. and the EU.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Regulation, Supply Chains, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
36. GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The growing consumption of food in the Gulf states is leading to the acquisition of foreign farmlands. This practice increases the Gulf states’ influence in African countries and the European neighbourhood. The competitiveness of their agricultural sector is also growing in relation to the less innovative European agriculture thanks to the development of technologies responding to difficult climatic conditions.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food Security, Investment, Innovation, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
37. Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Gas, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa
38. Israel and Lebanon Conclude Maritime Agreement
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka and Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 27 October, Israel and Lebanon, which do not have official relations, concluded an agreement with U.S. mediation on the maritime border of the two states and the exploitation of gas deposits. The agreement will serve to increase stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, although the direct benefits for Lebanon’s economy depend on an improvement in the political situation.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Gas, Economy, Political stability, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
39. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?
- Author:
- Przemysław Biskup
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth
40. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
41. India Emerges as a Key Power and Important Partner for the EU in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific
42. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy
- Author:
- Łukasz Maślanka
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
- Topic:
- European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
43. Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since the seizure of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban have been consolidating power by recreating the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of the 1990s. The Taliban government’s limiting of human rights, especially of women, and constant ties to terrorist organisations reduce the chances of international recognition. Afghanistan has not yet become a centre of global terrorism or a source of mass migration, but the suspension of economic support has deepened the humanitarian crisis. Western partners, including the EU and the U.S., should pursue humanitarian aid and consider unfreezing Afghan currency reserves.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Taliban, Domestic Politics, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
44. China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
45. Space Technologies Key to the EU's Fight Against Climate Change
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Launched in March 2022, the Destination Earth initiative to create a digital model of the Earth confirms the importance of space technologies in the EU’s green and digital transformations. The consequences of climate change, such as droughts, fires, and floods, reduce the security of citizens and cause economic losses. The dissemination of applications using satellite data will increase the effectiveness of climate action and sustainable development in the EU.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
46. Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.
- Topic:
- Economics, Currency, Economic Stability, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
47. The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned . This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.
- Topic:
- Politics, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
48. What Next for Georgia's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Arkadiusz Legieć
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- During the European Council summit on 23 June, Georgia was not granted EU candidate status, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, and received only the prospect of EU accession. Georgia is the most pro-European state in the South Caucasus. The effectiveness of its Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course is hampered by internal political polarisation and Russia’s policies towards the region. Georgia’s continued cooperation with the EU and NATO will depend primarily on its willingness to implement reforms and the development of an internal consensus between the government and opposition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Domestic Politics, Polarization, Russia-Ukraine War, and European Council
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Georgia
49. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
50. States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution
- Author:
- Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Pollution, and Plastic
- Political Geography:
- Poland and Global Focus