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32. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
33. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy
- Author:
- Richard B. Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe
34. What Went Right in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
35. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
36. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong
37. The New Asian Challenge
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The initial postwar challenge from East Asia was economic. Japan crashed back into global markets in the 1960s, became the largest surplus and creditor country in the 1980s, and was viewed by many as the world's dominant economy by 1990. The newly industrialized countries (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) followed suit on a smaller but still substantial scale shortly thereafter. China only re-entered world commerce in the 1980s but has now become the second largest economy (in purchasing power terms), the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment inflows, and the second largest holder of monetary reserves. Indonesia and most of Southeast Asia grew at 7 percent for two or more decades. The oil crises of the 1970s and the financial crises of the late 1990s injected temporary setbacks but East Asia has clearly become a third major pole of the world economy, along with North America and Western Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North America, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong
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