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1. Unemployment and Social Crisis in Tunisia

Author:
Vasco Molini
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The decade since the 2010–11 Jasmine revolution has been particularly difficult for Tunisia. The trend of poverty reduction that started in the early 2000s has lost steam, with poverty rates increasing again in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and spatial inequalities remaining high. Moreover, the labour market is afflicted by persistent structural problems: high unemployment, high informality and low levels of participation among women and youth. Given the limited opportunities offered by the local labour market, Tunisians increasingly find in emigration the solution to cope with their dire economic and social situation.
Topic:
Migration, Economy, Unemployment, Labor Market, and Social Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

2. Seeing Tunisia’s Civil Society During Un-civil Times

Author:
Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia’s dramatic democratic reversals since July 2021 warrant an in-depth reflection on how and where its once-promising democratisation momentum went wrong. Much attention is given to the top-down demolition of democratic institutions by the country’s (democratically) elected President Kais Saied. However, just as the popular revolution that ousted the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and the subsequent democratic transition was to a great extent a bottom-up process, so civil society too is an important piece of the de-democratisation puzzle. In a bid to compare and contrast trajectories of degeneration and regeneration, the paper explores the contributions and constraints of Tunisian civil society vis-à-vis Tunisia’s difficult experiment with democratisation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and NGOs
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

3. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

4. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zerosum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

5. Clean Molecules across the Mediterranean: The Potential for North African Hydrogen Imports into Italy and the EU

Author:
Luca Franza
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Hydrogen is the most promising vector for harnessing North Africa’s largely untapped renewable energy potential. Low-carbon hydrogen produced in North Africa can play an important role in enabling the European Union and Italy to reach their increasingly ambitious decarbonisation targets as a complement to electrification and locally produced renewables. It is estimated that the EU could achieve cost savings by producing at least part of its future renewable energy needs in neighbouring high-yield regions. Italy is set to play a particularly important function as both a gateway and a catalyst for North African hydrogen exports. In turn, North Africa stands to benefit from hydrogen both as a source of revenues and as an instrument of diversification, industrialisation and local economic development. This would in turn improve social resilience, increase political stability, reduce the risk of radicalisation and limit migration flows. Italy has a particularly strong strategic interest in all of these areas, given its geographic location in the Central Mediterranean and marked exposure to social, political and security developments in North Africa. North African hydrogen could also create profitable business opportunities for several Italian companies. In sum, hydrogen can contribute to fighting climate change while preserving positive trade interdependence across the Mediterranean. Strong coordination between the private sector and policy-makers is going to be key to abate costs along the hydrogen value chain and launch successful international hydrogen trade schemes.
Topic:
Energy Policy, European Union, Trade, Imports, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, Italy, and Mediterranean

6. EU–Africa Partnership on Migration and Mobility in Light of COVID-19: Perspectives from North Africa

Author:
Mehdi Lahlou
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic has turned into a global economic crisis with severe social effects in the least developed countries, particularly in Africa. Pre-existing challenges related to widespread poverty, demographic growth, food insecurity and governance issues have been exacerbated by the pandemic. While migration remains one of the key elements of the partnership agenda between Africa and the European Union, the aggravating socioeconomic situation in the African continent due to the impact of COVID-19 and its implications for migration dynamics requires going beyond business-as-usual approaches. The renewed scenario calls for a more comprehensive and development-oriented approach to migration, requiring new policy initiatives addressing the wider set of conditions that, beyond constituting developmental challenges in their own right, also drive migration in North Africa as well as in Sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, European Union, Mobility, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and North Africa

7. Italy and the Libyan Crisis: What Lessons for Foreign Policy?

Author:
Camellia Mahjoubi
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 2011 the Libyan crisis has never stopped posing questions to the Italian political class and public opinion, showing all its relevance for the definition of the external action – either at the multilateral or bilateral level – of our country. From political mediation to the use of force, from the terrorist threat to the current COVID-19 crisis, from the management of irregular migration to the issue of human rights, Libya continues to represent an important test for Italy’s foreign policy. In recent months, the Libyan conflict has undergone important changes. International mediation under the lead of the United Nations and with the involvement of the regional actors seems to have lost steam and a new intensification of military operations has produced rapid changes in the balance of power on the ground. What have been Italy’s responses to the crisis? What are the objectives and the tools put in place? What lessons can we learn about the strengths and weaknesses of our foreign policy?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, Italy, and North America

8. “Irregular” Migration and Divergent Understandings of Security in the Sahel

Author:
Kari M. Osland and Henriette U. Erstad
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 23 September 2020, the EU launched its new Pact on Migration and Asylum. In a refreshingly blunt press-release accompanying the Pact one could read: “The current system no longer works. And for the past five years, the EU has not been able to fix it”. The stated aim of the Pact is a fairer sharing of responsibility and solidarity between member states while providing certainty for individual asylum applicants. This is intended to rebuild trust between EU members as well as improve the capacity to better manage migration. However, whether the Pact will be implemented and have an effect on EU external migration policy in the Sahel remains to be seen.
Topic:
Security, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

9. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence

Author:
Anas El Gomati
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

10. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s

Author:
Ekaterina Stepanova
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria

11. Morocco's Power Sector Transition: Achievements and Potential

Author:
Tayeb Amegroud
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the only North African country with no own oil resources, Morocco is the largest energy importer in the region. The country is faced with the challenging task of meeting rising local demand while keeping its import bill under control. Against this backdrop, Morocco is pursuing an ambitious, cost- effective energy transition aimed at endowing the country with a sustainable, competitive and secure energy sector. This paper assesses the achievements and constraints facing the Moroccan energy system with a focus on the power sector, which is responsible for the transformation or production of more than half of the country's primary energy. It also dwells on existing policies aimed at integrating the Moroccan energy market into the regional and Euro-Mediterranean energy systems by exploiting its strategic position at the crossroads between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

12. Authoritarian Stability through Perpetual Democratisation

Author:
Francesco Cavatorta
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The survival of the Moroccan monarchy during the Arab revolts did not come as a surprise. Once the King reclaimed political leadership through the launch of a constitutional reform, the protest movement faded and whatever challenge to the pre-eminence of the monarchy in the political system might have existed ended quickly. A number of different and interlinked explanations have been advanced for the survival of authoritarianism in Morocco, but they generally rehash conventional wisdoms about Moroccan politics that may not be as valid as they were in the past. This paper looks beyond such traditional explanations, focusing on less obvious factors that contributed to the survival of the monarchy. A more sophisticated explanation for the survival of the regime can serve as a more insightful guide to what Morocco might look like in the future and what are the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-67-5
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

13. Social, Economic and Political Dynamics in Tunisia and the Related Short- to Medium-Term Scenarios

Author:
Maryam Ben Salem
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country which has succeeded so far in its democratic transition. Now that all the democratic institutions have been put in place, and after the legislative and presidential elections of 2014, the chances of democratic consolidation remain to be seen. Yet the regime faces serious challenges that cast doubt on its survival capacity. The political dynamics at play after the 2014 elections, which allowed Nidaa Tounes to come to power, cannot be understood without taking into account the conditions surrounding the political transition itself. The National Dialogue, hosted by the Quartet who were recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, is key to understanding the ongoing process of democracy consolidation. Taking into account both contingent and structural factors, this paper analyses how the current context is likely to shape the choices of the presidency of the Republic and of the Essid government, as well as the implications in terms of their legitimacy.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-65-1
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

14. The Outlook for Algeria

Author:
Joffé George
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria today faces a triple crisis. The collapse in global oil prices during 2014 and 2015 has meant that its economic future is potentially extremely sombre. In political terms, the regime faces a complex and uncertain transition as the Bouteflika era comes to an end. Moreover, Algeria’s security environment is threatening, given the chaos in Libya, the emergence of extremism in Tunisia and the ongoing violence in northern Mali because of the extremist groups located there. This situation is further complicated by the persistence of “residual terrorism,” as the government terms it, inside Algeria itself and the chronic crisis with Morocco over the latter’s annexation of the Western Sahara in 1975. This paper analyses each of these factors in turn before seeking to outline short- to medium-term scenarios for the future.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Islam, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-62-0
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

15. The Metamorphosis of Religion: North Africa in the Modern Era

Author:
Mohammad Haddad
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the nineteenth century, North Africa’s religious life has witnessed a slow and uncertain metamorphosis. It is still unable to settle into a constant and sustainable model. The traditional order could not resist the emergence of the nation-state, modern education and new forms of social organisation. However, religion has remained on the margins of these developments. Although used in the anticolonial struggle, religion was then abandoned during the formation of the postcolonial state. Yet the difficulties faced by governments since the 1970s have entrusted religion with a predominantly opposition function, which is negative and sometimes violent. This paper argues that only neo-reformism can give a positive spin to religion’s role in politics and can serve as the basis for a new religious order.
Topic:
Islam, Post Colonialism, Non State Actors, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-60-6
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

16. Morocco's Experience of Migration as a Sending, Transit and Receiving Country

Author:
Mehdi Lahlou
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
If Morocco appears to be Africa's gateway to Europe, it is a gateway that until today has been used primarily by Moroccans – more than 3 million Moroccans currently live in EU countries such as France, Spain and Italy. The number of other nationalities entering Europe through Morocco has seldom exceeded 20,000 annually and was no more than 7,300 in 2014. Thus, while Morocco is a country of migrant departure, it is only a minor host/transit country for migrants in search of better living conditions outside of their region of origin. Such a configuration has been the basis of recent Moroccan migration policy.
Topic:
Globalization, Migration, Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe and North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-54-5
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

17. Rethinking EU Energy Policies Towards the Southern Mediterranean Region

Author:
Silvia Colombo and Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Energy is a key factor shaping relations between Europe and North Africa. Due to the Maghreb's strategic role for European energy security, in the last two decades the EU has attempted to promote deeper energy cooperation both with and within the region. The success of the EU's bilateral and multilateral initiatives, however, has been hindered by diverging interests between European countries and their North African counterparts. The upheaval in the region unleashed by the Arab awakening, along with critical socio-economic challenges like population growth and urbanization, are altering this picture. In this context, the EU should urgently rethink its energy cooperation models with the southern partners, seizing the opportunities engendered by the current moment of change in the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and North Africa

18. Competitive Multipolarity in the Middle East

Author:
Kristina Kausch
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Middle Eastern and North African region is in flux, while attempts to identify a new dominant structural logic have been limited so far. For the time being, the new “order” appears to consist of the absence of any one clear-cut organising principle and in overlapping, dynamic, often contradictory geopolitical developments. Among many other features, the geopolitical equation in the Middle East is being altered by a number of larger structural shifts regarding the position and relative weight of specific actors. Notable instances include the relative loss of influence of the United states and Europe; the game-changing regional roles of Russia and China, respectively; the resurgence of the IranianSaudi rivalry; the emergence of a number of regional “swing states”; and the increasing role of non-state actors in shaping regional developments. the complexity of this outlook makes policy choices by regional and external actors ever more difficult.
Topic:
Non State Actors
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Middle East, and North Africa

19. The Management and Use of Natural Resources and their Potential for Economic and Social Development in the Mediterranean

Author:
Vanessa Ushie
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the framework of the IAI-OCP Policy Center project this paper offers a conceptual framework to examine natural resource management in Turkey, Morocco and Italy and its implications for social and economic development. It recognizes the multiplicity of actors involved in natural resource management at the local, national and global level. It then proceeds by 1) advancing a definition of natural resources to be used in the context of this project; 2) highlighting relevant emerging issues in the empirical debates on natural resource management within economics and politics; 3) developing a series of indicators aimed at assessing the dimensions of the management and use of natural resources. In general, this conceptual framework adopts a flexible and plural approach that reflects the multidisciplinary nature of natural resource management, and recognizes the importance of country-specific factors in the relationship between natural resource management and socio-economic development.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Natural Resources, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, North Africa, Italy, and Morocco

20. Moroccan Exceptionalism Examined: Constitutional Insights pre- and post-2011

Author:
Mohammed Hashas
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Compared to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, Morocco's political development looks like an oasis of tranquillity. "Moroccan exceptionalism" is often drawn on as a positive status, the result of at least one decade of reforms implemented by the monarchy, long before the Arab Spring events. An alternative view is offered by some civil society movements inside the country and by the 20 February Movement, born amidst the waves of the Arab Spring, which are critical of this exceptionalism and call for more reforms. By making reference to the constitutional reforms undertaken by the country since 1908 and by assessing the most recent reform efforts, this paper argues that "Moroccan exceptionalism" is yet to go through the test of the implementation of what is often referred to as a "promising constitution" that should in its intentions pave the way for a genuine constitutional monarchy in Morocco. "Moroccan exceptionalism," as the paper concludes, is not the description of a "final" political situation; rather, it is merely "a phase" in the political life of a country undergoing transition. It is then the outcome of this "phase" that will determine whether "exceptionalism" takes on a positive or a negative meaning and whether the two contrasting narratives about "exceptionalism" can ultimately be reconciled.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

21. China Reinterprets the Liberal Peace

Author:
Silvia Menegazzi
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China's assertiveness is growing. While in the past China's foreign policy kept a low profile in international affairs, global developments, prime amongst which in the Middle East, highlight China's growing influence in world politics and its ensuing role in shaping global norms. Within the liberal peace discourse, China's reinterpretation of international norms can be seen as the result of a mixture of prior local norms - sovereignty and non-interference - and changes within the international environment - namely conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. Particularly, in terms of intervention and peace-building practices, China insists that a number of preconditions - which are encapsulated in the notion of Responsible Protection (RP) - have to be met in order to consider intervention in sovereign states. This paper argues that in order to achieve a full picture of Chinese foreign policy and its normative underpinnings, it is necessary to explore the debate within non-state actors beyond the government apparatus, such as think tanks and research institutions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Emerging Markets, International Affairs, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

22. The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Rym Ayadi, Maria Cristina Paciello, and Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Owing to its macroeconomic achievements, for decades Tunisia projected an image of stability to the world and distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its progress in the areas of economic growth, health, education and women's rights. This widely held view of apparent stability was shattered on January 14, when President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after high levels of unemployment and inequalities resulted in widespread chaos and social unrest. Events in Tunisia raise sharp questions regarding the country's current situation and its future prospects and, more generally, the often taken-forgranted sustainability of many regimes of the Middle East and the policies of the European Union towards the region.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

23. Confidence-building in Tunisia after the Popular Uprising: Strategies and Dilemmas of the Interim Government

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cassarino
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the fall of Ben Ali on 14th January 2011, Tunisia has been going through a process of transformation and reconfiguration of the manifold relationships between the state and society. So far, a series of legal amendments and policy provisions have been considered to respond to immediate political demands in the run-up to the next elections. However, the numerous policy steps that have been achieved so far should not conceal resilient challenges pertaining, among others, to the structure of the economy and to its capacity to tackle youth unemployment, poverty in depressed areas, unfair competition, and corruption. The interim government will need to address these deeper challenges lest its credibility be jeopardised and the overall reform process compromised.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

24. A Return of Armies to the Forefront of Arab Politics?

Author:
Philippe Droz-Vincent
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Arab armies are closed and secretive actors. Yet they have been propelled to the fore in 2011, acting as midwifes and active participants in the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt. Their posture vis-à-vis incumbent regimes is crucial in other Arab countries too - Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria - as the wave of popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes has spread. In view of this, there is an essential need to understand what kind of actors Arab armies are. The nature of armies in authoritarian settings shapes the pattern of resilience or of breakdown for regimes facing popular uprisings, and the prospect for various transition countries in the Arab world.
Topic:
Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

25. The EU and the Libyan Crisis: In Quest of Coherence?

Author:
Nicole Koenig
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU's reaction is slow, the EU is divided, the EU is unable to deliver: time and time again, newspapers depict the image of an incoherent and uncoordinated EU foreign policy. This time, the topic under discussion is the EU's response to the Libyan crisis. Many have compared the EU's internal divisions over Libya with those over the Iraq war, an often-used example to illustrate the limits of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This paper aims to assess the coherence of the EU's short- to medium-term response to the Libyan crisis. It distinguishes between the horizontal, interinstitutional, vertical and multilateral dimensions of EU coherence. The analysis shows that unilateral actions or inactions of the member states mainly account for the EU's incoherent response. The post-Lisbon institutional structure has done little to compensate for these internal divisions. While the EU cannot change the course of national foreign policies, it should increase its 'leadership for coherence', communitarize its crisis response in the medium term and aim at preventing incoherence in the longer term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

26. Striking a Balance Between Norms and Interests in Italian Foreign Policy: The Balkans and Libya

Author:
Valérie Vicky Miranda
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
To what extent is foreign policy driven by norms and/or by interests? Considering the main trends of Italian foreign policy after World War II and two case studies, the Balkans and Libya, this paper investigates the role played by norms and interests and the interconnection between the two in Italian foreign policy. In the Balkans, norms and interests have neatly dovetailed: supporting democratization and the rule of law has also meant furthering Italian security and economic interests in the region. By contrast, Libya was the theatre of an essentially interest-driven foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Italian government's response to the Libyan crisis between March and May 2011 has interestingly marked a rupture from the recent past.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Libya, Kosovo, Balkans, North Africa, and Italy

27. Rethinking the EU's Mediterranean Policies Post-1/11

Author:
Nathalie Tocci and Jean-Pierre Cassarino
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The revolts sweeping across North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 have shaken long-held truths about the region. Most strikingly, the sustainability of these regimes has proved a chimera. The events in the region and the many truths they uncovered call for a serious rethink in Western policies towards the region. The aim of this paper is to explore what such a rethink might entail for the European Union. Reviewing the European Neighbourhood Policy by revamping the benefits on offer, reconsidering the effective use of conditionality, establishing adequate monitoring mechanisms and engaging with a plethora of partners both within and beyond the region is imperative. Such a review is contingent on the recognition of a reversed hierarchy of priorities, induced by the force of historical events unfolding in the region. To reverse policy priorities is no small feat, considering the entrenched logic that has sustained Euro-Med policies so far. Nonetheless, various dynamics press for a new way of thinking. The proposals contained in this study constitute concrete steps to rethink the EU's Mediterranean policies in line with the fundamental rights and principles which the Union seeks to advance in its external action.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

28. Algeria at the Crossroads, Between Continuity and Change

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria is the only country in North Africa which seems to be relatively immune to the so-called “Arab spring”. Popular protests did erupt in Algeria at precisely the same time as they were enveloping neighbouring countries, but the demands of the protesters never reached a popular consensus calling for the demise of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Drawing on the country's extensive monetary reserves, the Algerian authorities have responded by implementing a series of economic and social reforms, which have further weakened the resolve and unity of the protesters. After repealing the emergency laws in late February 2011, the government appeared to have regained the upper hand, but strikes and demonstrations have continued. Algeria still faces the real prospect of future popular unrest if the government fails in its promise to enact wide ranging political and economic reforms by early 2012. Given the country's geostrategic importance at both regional and international levels, the international community and in particular the EU must do more in order to ensure that Algeria is set on a sustainable path for the future.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa

29. The Treaty on Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation between Italy and Libya: New Prospects for Cooperation in the Mediterranean?

Author:
Natalino Ronzitti
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On August 30 2008, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi flew to Benghazi to sign the Treaty on Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation between Italy and Libya, concluding the long negotiating process that began under previous Italian governments and was accelerated by the current administration. The Treaty was meant to put an end to the dispute between the two countries and Libya's claims relating to Italian colonialism. In greeting Colonel Muammar Gheddafi, Berlusconi expressed his regret for the colonial period in very strong terms.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Post Colonialism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

30. Why the European Union Needs a 'Broader Middle East' Policy

Author:
Edward Burke, Ana Echagüe, and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
European foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a highly fragmented construction. Since the mid-1990s the EU's policies with Maghreb and Mashreq countries have been pursued under the rubric of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP), the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and now the Mediterranean Union. This plethora of highly institutionalised initiatives has been developed with negligible linkage to policy in the rest of the Middle East. Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council remain low key and strikingly disconnected from the EMP. Contrary to its rhetorical emphasis on supporting regional integration around the world, the EU has failed to build its strategy towards Iran and Iraq into a regional security framework. Even more reproachable, given its credibility and influence in the economic sphere has been the EU's inability to foster regional economic integration between the Mediterranean and the Gulf.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

31. Energy in the Mediterranean and the Gulf. Opportunities for Synergies

Author:
Naji Abi-Aad
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Mediterranean is expected to play an increasingly important role in global energy flows which might result in a greater European dependence on North African supplies and less on the Gulf. At the same time, potential synergies are said to exist in such fields as the development of renewable energy sources, and investment required to meet domestic electricity demand. As far as oil and refined products are concerned, the volume and direction of oil flows to and through the Mediterranean will be important, especially as an expected rise in transport in the near future contains serious security implications. As a result, an increased focus on the development of a pipeline network between the Mediterranean and Europe might open possibilities for Gulf involvement. The same could apply for the supply of natural gas to Europe. In the field of power generation, the improved ability to transmit electricity over longer distances opens the door for establishing a continuum of interconnection from the Gulf to Europe through the Mediterranean and the ability to serve markets along those connections. Finally, the rapidly rising awareness of the need for renewable energy sources suggests an additional field of cooperation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

32. Report of the Conference "Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors"

Author:
Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), in cooperation with the International Affairs Institute (IAI) of Rome, held the second seminar of the Mediterranean Strategy Group in Genoa on May 10-12 2009 under the title “Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors”. The meeting is part of a multi-year project of dialogue and analysis exploring critical Mediterranean issues in a transatlantic context. The Mediterranean Strategy Group is conducted with the support of the Compagnia di San Paolo, ENEL, OCP Group, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, and the Luso-American Foundation. The decision to convene the meeting in Genoa was in keeping with the city's identity and role as a “gateway to the Mediterranean,” and the discussion benefited from both the setting and the assistance of the municipality.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Germany, and North Africa

33. Co-chairmen's report of brainstorming "Implementing the un general assembly's counter-terrorism strategy: addressing youth radicalisation in the Mediterranean region. Lessons learned, best practices and recommendations"

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Center for Global Counter Terrorism Co-operation (Center) convened a brainstorming on 11 - 12 July in Rome on “Implementing the UN General Assembly's Counter-Terrorism Strategy: Addressing Youth Radicalisation in the Mediterranean Region. Lessons Learned, Best Practices and Recommendations.” The event was organised in co-operation with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Centro Studi sul Federalismo (Turin), with the support of the Compagnia di San Paolo. The participants included experts from the UN and other multilateral bodies, officials from the Italian and German governments, and academic and other non-government experts from the United States, Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The meeting also included a roundtable of representatives of the “Consulta Giovanile per il Pluralismo Religioso e Culturale” (Youth Consultative Council), a youth advisory board recently established by the Italian Ministries of Youth and Sport and Interior to enhance the role of youth in promoting dialogue and tolerance among different cultures and religions. The Rt. Hon. Giovanna Melandri, the Italian Minister for Youth Policies and Sport addressed the brainstorming.
Topic:
Civil Society, Islam, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

34. The European Union's Mediterranean Partnership

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the 1990s, the end of the East-West confrontation brought about sweeping changes in the regions beyond the Mediterranean further than in the European East. During the Cold War many Middle Eastern and North African countries had received support from the USSR and sided to varying extent and in different ways with it. Thus, the Mediterranean region had been regarded by NATO as its “southern flank”. In fact, conflict in that area could give way to a “horizontal escalation” and shift the confrontation from regional to global level.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

35. Security Factors and Responses in the Emerging Mediterranean Strategic Setting

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During the Cold War, threats coming from across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe and the Western world in general were strictly related to the East-West confrontation. National security was not endangered by possible attacks from the Mediterranean or Middle Eastern countries as such but by the East-West escalation South-South conflict could be able to give way to. In this sense, the Arab-Israeli conflict was a central threat to Western security. What was frightening was not the military power of the regional countries but their alliance with the Soviet Union and the possibility of what at that time was called horizontal escalation (as opposed to East-West direct vertical escalation).
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Soviet Union, and North Africa

36. Perejil/Leila and the Euro-Med Partnership

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During the Spanish-Moroccan crisis over the Perejil/Leila islet both the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) have squarely supported Spanish sovereignty. They have completely ignored the special co-operation promoted with the Mediterranean countries from the mid-1990s onwards. This is particularly true with respect to the EU-initiated Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, whose ambitious agenda contemplates an articulated political and security agenda of collective cooperation with the Southern Mediterranean countries, including Morocco. For a number of reasons, the partners have failed to turn their aims into a practical reality. Nonetheless, co-operation is still on the agenda and the parties to the scheme are still apparently committed to it. It is true that one witnessed the same kind of response from the Arab side. The Arab League supported Moroccan claims just as unambiguously as the Western or European side did Spain. How can one explain that precisely at the time when the spirit of Euro-Med co-operation was most necessary it vanished?
Topic:
Security and International Law
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

37. Different Concepts, Different Approaches, Prospects for Building a Common Language

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
What prevails in Europe today is a culture of peace and co-operation. This state of affairs is relatively new in its history. It is the product, first, of the objective conditions for peace and co-operation that emerged after the Second World War and, second, of the Western victory at the end of the Cold War. The killings and destruction of the Second World War made European nationalism collapse. The overwhelming threat from the Soviet Union was key in triggering European integration and establishing an intra- European state of democratic peace. Finally, the victorious end of the Cold War is now allowing for integration and democratic peace to be strengthened and enlarged by the inclusion of the European East in that process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

38. Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation: Interest and Role of Italy and Libya

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper looks at the international relations across the Mediterranean Sea, between the European countries - in particular, the European Union-EU - and the countries of the Near East and North Africa. In this framework, it tries to define the role of Italy and Libya and the joint actions they can carry out to foster peace and co-operation in the area concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

39. Western-Mediterranean Security Relations: Issues and Challenges

Author:
Carlo Masala
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Speaking about issues and challenges of Western-Mediterranean security relations means, first of all, reflecting about the achievements of the Western-Mediterranean policy in the past. A realistic look at Western-Mediterranean security relations in the past decade contributes to a realistic outlook for the future of this relationships.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

40. Relations Between Italy and Libya

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Relations between Italy and Libya have oscillated over time, though broadly in tune with trends in international relations with this country. Despite oscillations, however, relations have never ceased to be important for both Italy and Libya.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

41. Europe and North Africa

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the European geopolitical perspective, North Africa does not make much sense. Rather, European relations focuses on the Maghreb, the Arab Occident, which traditionally includes Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Egypt, although part to North Africa, belongs geopolitically to another framework, i.e. the Mashreq, the Arab Orient.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Algeria, Arab Countries, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

42. EU's Emerging Military Policy and the Mena Areas

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The American component in the EU Middle East Policy cannot be considered in isolation. The transatlantic relationship has a complex character and, for this reason, there are linkages between different issues. The influence of transatlantic relations and the U.S. on what the EU does or does not do in the Middle East is not necessarily tied to the Middle East itself and to specific Middle Eastern issues debated in transatlantic relations. It may stem from other issues.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa

43. Perceptions of Security in the Euro-Med North-South Dimension: The Northern Perspective

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The area currently encompassed by the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) reflects fairly well the broad Western perception of the new strategic situation established by the end of the Cold War. The North Atlantic Council described this situation very aptly in the strategic concept it approved in Rome in 1991, though it meant to refer primarily to the European East: “Risks to Alliance security are less likely to result from calculated aggression against the territory of the Allies, but rather from the adverse consequences of instabilities that may arise from the serious economic, social and political difficulties, including ethnic rivalries and territorial disputes . . . The tensions that may result . . . could lead to crises inimical to European stability and even to armed conflicts.”
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Rome

44. EU Security Towards the Mediterranean - The Role of Southern Europe

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the last two years, the EU has begun to strengthen its security and defence integration with a view to acquiring new capabilities in crisis management at both the European and Atlantic level. To that end, it is in the process of reinvigorating its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and developing the newly-born Common European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa