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202. Rwandan Hutu Rebels in the Congo: a New Approach to Disarmament and Reintegration
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While a transition government is scheduled to be installed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in June 2003, the program of the United Nations Mission in Congo (MONUC) for voluntary disarmament and demobilisation, repatriation, rehabilitation and reintegration (DDRRR, henceforth DR) of foreign armed groups has remained a failure. Authorised by Security Council mandate on 18 November 2001 to deploy in eastern Congo, MONUC has repatriated only a few hundred Rwandan ex-rebels and has opened only one demobilisation centre at Lubero in North Kivu. The participation of South African observers in the Third Party Verification Mechanism (TPVM) established by an accord between Rwanda and Congo in July 2002, has not changed anything. MONUC has still not deployed a serious force in eastern Congo or constructed a credible DR program.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
203. Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire--Soft Landing or Strategic Pause?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Driven by growing pressure on the battlefield, increasing international isolation and a sense that the time is ripe for political gains, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has engaged in a ceasefire with government forces since 29 January 2003. A 22- point “code of conduct” has been reached that will serve essentially as the military ground rules while peace negotiations proceed, although unfortunately each side has already accused the other of persistent violations and no strong, independent verification process is in place.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
204. Angola's Choice: Reform or Regress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year after more than four decades of internationally fuelled civil conflict came to an end, Angola is faced with a stark choice. If the government undertakes and sustains meaningful political and economic reforms, peace and prosperity would be assured. If it delays and obfuscates on fundamental issues of transparency, diversification and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades of poor governance and localised violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa
205. Negotiating a Blueprint for Peace in Somalia
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The peace process in Somalia is at a critical point. Talks that began with great promise are in danger of collapsing unless the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves provide stronger leadership. The Somali public's flagging interest and support for the process needs to be revived, and improvements are required in the negotiating process or the parties will be unable to tackle the many difficult outstanding issues. Unfortunately, the international community has remained reluctant to throw its full weight behind the peace talks, to take a tough line with those who are undermining it or generally to express a unified position on preferred outcomes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Somalia
206. Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The economic meltdown, government-created food crisis, and deepening state-sponsored violence that have plagued Zimbabwe in the year since President Robert Mugabe's ruling party rigged the presidential election continue to point in one ominous direction: potential state collapse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
207. Radical Islam In Iraqi Kurdistan: The Mouse That Roared?
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tucked away in a handful of villages in a remote pocket of Iraqi Kurdistan, a small group of radical Islamist fighters has been accused of being the Kurdish offspring of the al-Qaeda network, and thus has become a fresh target in the international war on terrorism. To compensate for its limited reach and popularity, this group, called Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam), has built on tenuous regional alliances to survive in the harsh mountainous environment above the town of Halabja in northwestern Iraq, just shy of the border with Iran. These alliances have enhanced its role as a minor spoiler in predominantly secular Kurdish politics in the Suleimaniyeh governorate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Arabia, and Kurdistan
208. A Framework For Responsible Aid To Burundi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Within the last two months, thanks to the active engagement of the facilitation team, Burundi's peace process has exceeded expectations. Momentum has never been so strong since the civil war began ten years ago. On 3 December 2002, the transitional government led by President Buyoya signed a landmark ceasefire agreement with the Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie – Forces de défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) of Jean- Pierre Nkurunziza. This complemented the ceasefire reached two months earlier with two minor rebel groups (the CNDD-FDD faction led by Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye and the PALIPEHUTU-FNL faction led by Alain Mugabarabona). On 27 January 2003, the government and the three rebel groups signed an additional memorandum of understanding establishing a Joint Ceasefire Commission and setting a date for the return of Mugarabona and Ndayikengurukiye to Burundi. An African Union force with South African, Ethiopian and Mozambican troops is to be deployed in the next few weeks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Burundi
209. Dealing with Savimbi's Ghost: The Security and Humanitarian Challenges in Angola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Emerging slowly from decades of civil war, Angola stands at a crossroads between a spectacular recovery or further cycles of instability and crisis. The government that won the fighting must now move on a number of fronts – with international support – to win the peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Angola
210. Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 3 November 2002, an unmanned U.S. “Predator” aircraft hovering in the skies of Yemen fired a Hellfire missile at a car carrying a suspected al- Qaeda leader, four Yemenis said to be members of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, and a Yemeni- American who, according to U.S. authorities, had recruited volunteers to attend al-Qaeda training camps. All six occupants were killed. Almost two months later, three American missionaries were shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Jibla. These incidents, only the latest in a series involving Yemen, reinforced its image as a weak and lawless state with porous borders, a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives, a country with tenuous government control over vast parts of its territory and dominated by a culture of kidnappings and endemic violence. The October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, the arrest earlier in 2002 of several Yemenis in the United States and Pakistan suspected of membership in the al-Qaeda network, the capture of Ramzi bin al-Shibah, a Yemeni citizen accused of being a key plotter of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the U.S., and the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002 have all contributed to this perception. Indeed, during the past year, the U.S. has sent special forces to Yemen and neighbouring countries, with the purpose of pursuing presumed members of the al-Qaeda network and associated organisations in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Yemen, and Arabia
211. The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transitional government. Yet, it is unlikely that the agreement alone will bring immediate peace. Serious fighting continues in Eastern Congo, particularly Kivu and Ituri Provinces, which have been the main theatres for direct and proxy confrontation between local, national and regional participants in the Congolese conflict since the cease-fire was signed in Lusaka in 1999. The population there is suffering enormously while there is an almost complete absence of international attention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lusaka
212. Sudan's Oilfields Burn Again: Brinkmanship Endangers The Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's peace process survived a major challenge in the first weeks of the new year. Indeed, signature by the parties of a strengthened cessation of hostilities agreement on 4 February and a memorandum of understanding codifying points of agreement on outstanding issues of power and wealth sharing two days later indicates that the momentum to end the twenty-year old conflict is strong. However, the crisis produced by a government-sponsored offensive in the Western Upper Nile oilfields at the end of 2002 and through January raised questions about the Khartoum government's commitment to peace and showed that much more attention needs to be paid to pro-government southern militias and the commercial and political agendas for which they are being used.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
213. Indonesia Backgrounder: How The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the Indonesian-led investigation proceeds, the Bali attack on 12 October 2002 looks more and more like the work of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). But what exactly is Jemaah Islamiyah and how does it operate? It is one thing to describe, as many have by now, a network of Islamic radicals extending across Southeast Asia, led by Indonesian nationals, with a loose structure characterised by four territorial divisions known as mantiqis that cover peninsular Malaysia and Singapore; Java; Mindanao, Sabah, and Sulawesi; and Australia and Papua respectively.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Papua
214. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa
215. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia
216. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
217. Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Political Liberalisation
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nine years after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has reached another crossroads. The transition period defined by the Arusha Accords will be concluded in less than a year by a constitutional referendum and by multi-party elections which should symbolize the successful democratisation of the country. Today, however, there are multiple restrictions on political and civil liberty and no sign of any guarantee, or even indication, in the outline of the constitutional plan that the political opposition will be able to participate in these elections on an equal footing with the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), in power since 1994.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
218. Ending Starvation as a Weapon of War in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Warring parties and international aid providers in Sudan have an historic opportunity to bring to an end what is perhaps the most extreme and long-running example in the world of using access to humanitarian aid as an instrument of war. A mid- December meeting between the UN and Sudan's warring parties – the Technical Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (TCHA) – provides an unparalleled vehicle to build on recent short-term agreements and to once and for all remove the institutional barriers to unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies. Such an opportunity may not arise again, so it is imperative that mediators, the UN Security Council, and interested governments provide concentrated and immediate support for this objective.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan, United Nations, and North Africa
219. Zimbabwe: The Politics of National Liberation and International Division
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the rising humanitarian costs of the crisis in Zimbabwe, the international community remains deeply divided about its response, allowing President Mugabe to believe that he can exploit the policy fissure between – broadly – the West and Africa. The foreign media's emphasis on the plight of white commercial farmers plays into the regime's liberation rhetoric, reinforcing the erroneous but widespread belief in Africa that the West is concerned about Zimbabwe only because white property interests have been harmed. What is happening in Zimbabwe and the lack of a continental response have damaged perceptions of Africa in the wider international community, weakening in the process the promising but still embryonic New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and the African Union (AU).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
220. Sudan's Best Chance for Peace: How Not to Lose It
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 1 September 2002, two weeks into the second phase of the peace negotiations in Machakos, Kenya, the Sudanese government suspended its participation in the talks being brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This followed the capture, after a series of battles, of the southeastern Sudanese town of Torit by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa
221. The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting. Neither side has been able to gain a decisive military advantage, although the army recently claimed several important victories.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
222. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: The Countdown
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Il reste officiellement un peu plus de cinq ans au Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) pour achever le mandat qui lui a été confié, en novembre 1994, par le Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies. Le TPIR se trouve donc exactement à mi-parcours de son mandat. Depuis un an et demi, plusieurs nouveaux procès ont été initiés. Toutefois malgré cette amélioration significative marquée par un fort regain d'activité, le Tribunal d'Arusha n'a pas établi, les priorités judiciaires qui lui permettraient de remplir son mandat avant 2008. En mai 2001, ICG publiait un premier rapport bilan des activités du TPIR intitulé: "L'urgence de juger". Cette urgence reste, malheureusement, toujours d'actualité.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
223. Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clearing operations, and expand the use of its greatest comparative advantage, air power. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has greater manpower to deploy on multiple fronts, has also acquired more sophisticated arms, and is engaging government forces in more intense conventional battles.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
224. Zimbabwe: What Next?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the deeply flawed March 2002 presidential election, Zimbabwe has dropped off the radar screen of most policy-makers and media but its crisis is deepening: the ruling ZANU-PF party and the government are systematically using violence to intimidate the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and civil society in order to punish and compel them to accept the results; the economy is further deteriorating as foreign investment and food both become scarce commodities; with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine; and as the opposition considers mass protests, the prospect of serious internal conflict is becoming imminent, with grave implications for the stability of the wider Southern African region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
225. Burundi After Six Months Of Transition: Continuing The War Or Winning Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Fourteen months after the signing of the Arusha framework agreement, the Burundi transition government was sworn in on November 1, 2001, in the presence of the leaders of Nigeria, Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia, Nelson Mandela and a host of other African and international delegations. The new government comprised twenty-six ministers representing majority Hutu (G7) and majority Tutsi (G10) political parties, all signatories to the Arusha accords of August 2000 in Tanzania. A few days before the swearing-in ceremony, several political leaders, including Jean Minani, president of the FRODEBU party, returned from exile to join the government, after guarantees for their protection were provided by the presence of seven hundred South African soldiers. The deal struck between Minani's FRODEBU and Pierre Buyoya's UPRONA, which was formalised by the accord on the transition government of 23 July 2001, made the two parties by far the biggest beneficiaries of power-sharing. The transition phase was slated to last 36 months, with a mid-term transfer of power in May 2003, when the current vice-president, Domitien Ndayizeye of FRODEBU, will replace the president of UPRONA PIERRE Buyoya.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and Malawi
226. Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 between Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC (Mouvement pour la libération du Congo) and the government of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncertain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
227. Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging area or safe haven in the past and remains concerned – though less than in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that it could do so again because of the country's highly fragmented internal security situation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Nations, North Africa, and Somalia
228. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
229. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Sudan, and North Africa
230. Courting Disaster: The Misrule of Law in Bosnia Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The law does not yet rule in Bosnia Herzegovina. What prevail instead are nationally defined politics, inconsistency in the application of law, corrupt and incompetent courts, a fragmented judicial space, half-baked or half-implemented reforms, and sheer negligence. Bosnia is, in short, a land where respect for and confidence in the law and its defenders is weak.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
231. Zimbabwe At The Crossroads: Transition Or Conflict?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite broad international condemnation and a tremendous thirst among the people of Zimbabwe for change, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government succeeded in systematically manipulating the March 2002 election process to ensure another six-year term for President Robert Mugabe. The strategic use of state violence and extra-legal electoral tinkering authorised by President Mugabe effectively thwarted the will of the people from being heard.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
232. Indonesia: The Search for Peace in Maluku
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting that broke out between Christians and Muslims in Ambon, the capital of Indonesia's Maluku province, on 19 January 1999 triggered a virtual civil war that soon spread to other parts of the province. At least 5,000 people (perhaps as many as 10,000) have been killed and close to 700,000 – almost one-third of the population of 2.1 million – became refugees. Peace has yet to be achieved although violence has declined sharply during the last year. Refugees are beginning to return to predominantly Muslim North Maluku (which was separated from the old Maluku province in September 1999) but tensions remain high in Ambon and surrounding islands that are the core of the new Maluku province.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
233. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
234. God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's long civil war rages on, claiming a terrible toll of death and displacement .While the decades of destruction are too complex to trace back to a single source, several forces propel the war, principally disputes over religion , resources , governance and self-determination . Concentration of power in a small group of competing elites that has not granted the majority of Sudanese broader economic and political rights has only deepened the country's considerable geographic, religious cultural and ethnic divisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
235. All Bark and No Bite? The International Response to Zimbabwe's Crisis?
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 9-10 March 2002 presidential election is the decisive date for Zimbabwe's intensifying crisis. With political violence escalating, new repressive legislation has highlighted the government's efforts to clamp down on the media, the judicial system, civil society and the political opposition in order to retain power by any means. International action, not merely further expressions of concern, is needed before time runs out on the possibility of conducting the freer and fairer election that is the best chance to head off destabilisation that would inevitably cross the country's borders and affect all southern Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Zimbabwe
236. Zimbabwe's Election: The Stakes for Southern Africa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the intensification of Zimbabwe's political, economic and humanitarian crisis following defeat of a government-sponsored constitution in a national referendum nearly two years ago, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has documented the escalation of state-sponsored violence and erosion of the rule of law. ICG has called for robust action by the international community, especially Zimbabwe's neighbours and partners in the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC). As the March presidential election draws nearer, and state violence, intimidation and rigging intensify, action by South Africa and its SADC partners becomes more urgent. Zimbabwe's neighbours have a major opportunity to respond more forcefully to the growing crisis at a Summit in Malawi on 13-14 January 2002 and its aftermath. This briefing paper updates the regional dimensions of the crisis, and analyses SADC's policy options, with a special emphasis on its most powerful member, South Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Africa and Zimbabwe
237. Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The war option has, for the moment, been checked, but Macedonia is very far from being at peace. Neither the agreement signed on 13 August 2001 2 by the four Macedonian governing parties – two ethnic Macedonian, two ethnic Albanian – nor the subsequent limited NATO deployment, nor the first-stage approval of necessary constitutional amendments by the Macedonian parliament on 6 September have yet given anyone confidence that peace is sustainable. The parliamentary vote, for example, came only after an acrimonious debate in which markers were laid down that ultimate approval of the legislative package could not be taken for granted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
238. Macedonia: War on Hold
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
239. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
240. Macedonia: Still Sliding
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
241. The Macedonian Question: Reform or Rebellion
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia's second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania
242. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
243. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
244. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
245. What Happened to the KLA?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
246. Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
247. Waiting For UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than four months have passed since the start of the deployment of the United Nations in Kosovo. While first efforts were concentrated on the creation of a secure environment and the distribution of humanitarian aid, Civil Administration, the pillar of UNMIK which plays the role of a government, has been slow in reaching the local level.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
248. Whither Bosnia?
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite considerable progress since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in November 1995 in consolidating the peace and rebuilding normal life in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), international efforts do not appear to be achieving the goal of establishing Bosnia as a stable, functioning state, able at some point to run its own affairs without the need for continued international help. Peace, in the narrow sense of an absence of war, has been maintained; progress has been made in establishing freedom of movement throughout the country; joint institutions, including the state presidency, parliamentary assemblies and ministries, as well as a joint command for the armed forces of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), have been established.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
249. Impunity In Drvar
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar – whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb – offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
250. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania