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Begin New Search Topic Ethnic Conflict Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution International Crisis Group

81. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

82. Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Political Liberalisation

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nine years after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has reached another crossroads. The transition period defined by the Arusha Accords will be concluded in less than a year by a constitutional referendum and by multi-party elections which should symbolize the successful democratisation of the country. Today, however, there are multiple restrictions on political and civil liberty and no sign of any guarantee, or even indication, in the outline of the constitutional plan that the political opposition will be able to participate in these elections on an equal footing with the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), in power since 1994.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

83. Ending Starvation as a Weapon of War in Sudan

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Warring parties and international aid providers in Sudan have an historic opportunity to bring to an end what is perhaps the most extreme and long-running example in the world of using access to humanitarian aid as an instrument of war. A mid- December meeting between the UN and Sudan's warring parties – the Technical Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (TCHA) – provides an unparalleled vehicle to build on recent short-term agreements and to once and for all remove the institutional barriers to unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies. Such an opportunity may not arise again, so it is imperative that mediators, the UN Security Council, and interested governments provide concentrated and immediate support for this objective.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan, United Nations, and North Africa

84. Sudan's Best Chance for Peace: How Not to Lose It

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 1 September 2002, two weeks into the second phase of the peace negotiations in Machakos, Kenya, the Sudanese government suspended its participation in the talks being brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This followed the capture, after a series of battles, of the southeastern Sudanese town of Torit by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

85. Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Corruption in Macedonia, especially at high levels of government, is endemic. It has evolved from passive exploitation to active coercion and acquired the capacity not only to retard economic progress but also to feed organised crime and, in turn, political and communal instability. In effect, the state has come to function in important respects as a “racket”, while the racketeers thrive in a culture of impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

86. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: The Countdown

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Il reste officiellement un peu plus de cinq ans au Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) pour achever le mandat qui lui a été confié, en novembre 1994, par le Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies. Le TPIR se trouve donc exactement à mi-parcours de son mandat. Depuis un an et demi, plusieurs nouveaux procès ont été initiés. Toutefois malgré cette amélioration significative marquée par un fort regain d'activité, le Tribunal d'Arusha n'a pas établi, les priorités judiciaires qui lui permettraient de remplir son mandat avant 2008. En mai 2001, ICG publiait un premier rapport bilan des activités du TPIR intitulé: "L'urgence de juger". Cette urgence reste, malheureusement, toujours d'actualité.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

87. Fighting to Control Yugoslavia's Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country's reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, United Nations, and Serbia

88. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

89. Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clearing operations, and expand the use of its greatest comparative advantage, air power. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has greater manpower to deploy on multiple fronts, has also acquired more sophisticated arms, and is engaging government forces in more intense conventional battles.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

90. Policing The Police In Bosnia: A Further Reform Agenda

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite more than six years of increasingly intrusive reforms carried out at the behest of the UN Mission in Bosnia Herzegovina (UNMIBH), the local police cannot yet be counted upon to enforce the law. Too often – like their opposite numbers in the judiciary – nationally partial, under-qualified, underpaid, and sometimes corrupt police officers uphold the law selectively, within a dysfunctional system still controlled by politicised and nationalised interior ministries.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

91. Burundi After Six Months Of Transition: Continuing The War Or Winning Peace?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fourteen months after the signing of the Arusha framework agreement, the Burundi transition government was sworn in on November 1, 2001, in the presence of the leaders of Nigeria, Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia, Nelson Mandela and a host of other African and international delegations. The new government comprised twenty-six ministers representing majority Hutu (G7) and majority Tutsi (G10) political parties, all signatories to the Arusha accords of August 2000 in Tanzania. A few days before the swearing-in ceremony, several political leaders, including Jean Minani, president of the FRODEBU party, returned from exile to join the government, after guarantees for their protection were provided by the presence of seven hundred South African soldiers. The deal struck between Minani's FRODEBU and Pierre Buyoya's UPRONA, which was formalised by the accord on the transition government of 23 July 2001, made the two parties by far the biggest beneficiaries of power-sharing. The transition phase was slated to last 36 months, with a mid-term transfer of power in May 2003, when the current vice-president, Domitien Ndayizeye of FRODEBU, will replace the president of UPRONA PIERRE Buyoya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and Malawi

92. Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 between Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC (Mouvement pour la libération du Congo) and the government of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncertain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

93. Implementing Equality: The "Constituent Peoples" Decision in Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In July 2000, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia Herzegovina made an historic ruling requiring the two entities, the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska (RS), to amend their constitutions to ensure the full equality of the country's three “constituent peoples” throughout its territory.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

94. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

95. Myanmar: The Politics of Humanitarian Aid

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the 1988 uprising and 1990 election in Burma/Myanmar, foreign governments and international organisations have promoted democratisation as the solution to the country's manifold problems, including ethnic conflict, endemic social instability, and general underdevelopment. Over time, however, as the political stalemate has continued and data on the socioeconomic conditions in the country have improved, there has been a growing recognition that the political crisis is paralleled by a humanitarian crisis that requires more immediate and direct international attention. Donors face a dilemma. On the one hand, the humanitarian imperative raises difficult questions about the sustainability of international strategies based on coercive diplomacy and economic isolation, which have greatly limited international assistance to Myanmar. On the other hand, there is widespread concern that re-engagement, even in the form of limited humanitarian assistance, could undermine the quest for political change and long-term improvements.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

96. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Sudan, and North Africa

97. God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's long civil war rages on, claiming a terrible toll of death and displacement .While the decades of destruction are too complex to trace back to a single source, several forces propel the war, principally disputes over religion , resources , governance and self-determination . Concentration of power in a small group of competing elites that has not granted the majority of Sudanese broader economic and political rights has only deepened the country's considerable geographic, religious cultural and ethnic divisions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

98. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

99. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

100. No Early Exit: NATO's Continuing Challenge in Bosnia

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO-led troops have played a vital part in securing the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) since their arrival in December 1995. Although authorised by the Dayton Peace Agreement to assist civilian implementation, the military is not obliged to do so. Yet, by evolving in response to developments, the mission has contributed - albeit belatedly and inconsistently - to international civilian efforts to construct a viable state. This shift was reflected in the change of the mission's name in 1996 from Implementation Force (IFOR) to Stabilisation Force (SFOR).
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe