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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution International Crisis Group

81. Nepal's Faltering Peace Process

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite successful elections and a lasting military ceasefire, Nepal's peace process is facing its most severe tests yet. Major issues remain unresolved: there is no agreement on the future of the two armies, very little of the land seized during the conflict has been returned, and little progress has been made writing a new constitution. Challenges to the basic architecture of the 2006 peace deal are growing from all sides. Key political players, particularly the governing Maoists and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC), need to rebuild consensus on the way forward or face a public backlash. International supporters of Nepal must target assistance and political pressure to encourage the parties to face the threats to peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

82. Cyprus: Reunification or Partition?

Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Three decades of efforts to reunify Cyprus are about to end, leaving a stark choice ahead between a hostile, de facto partition of the island and a collaborative federation between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities living in two constituent states. Most actors agree that the window of opportunity for this bicommunal, bizonal settlement will close by April 2010, the date of the next Turkish Cypriot elections, when the pro-settlement leader risks losing his office to a more hardline candidate. If no accord is reached by then, it will be the fourth major set of UN-facilitated peace talks to fail, and there is a widespread feeling that if the current like-minded, pro-solution Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders cannot compromise on a federal solution, nobody can. To avoid the heavy costs this would entail for all concerned, the two leaders should stand shoulder to shoulder to overcome domestic cynicism and complete the talks, Turkey and Greece must break taboos preventing full communication with both sides on the island, and European Union (EU) states must rapidly engage in support of the process to avoid the potential for future instability if they complacently accept continuation of the dispute. A real chance still exists in 2009-2010 to end.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

83. Southern Thailand: Moving towards Political Solutions?

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On taking office, Thai Prime Min­­ister Abhisit Vejjajiva pledged to reclaim policy on the southern insurgency from the military. But a year of distracting fights between supporters of the establishment and an ousted populist leader has meant little progress in resolving violence in the South. Despite glimpses of new thinking in Bangkok, the weakness of the government and its reliance on the military for political support have meant the top brass still dominates policymaking in the predominantly Malay Muslim South. Harsh and counterproductive laws remain in force and there are no effective checks on abuses by the security forces. Alternative policies have not been seriously explored and, after a temporary reduction in violence in 2008, the attacks are rising again. It is time for the government to follow its words with actions if it wants to move forward with a political solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Asia

84. Jonglei's Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Conflicts among tribes have claimed several thousand lives in South Sudan in 2009, with the worst violence in and around the vast, often impassable state of Jonglei. Violence often afflicts pastoral communities, but in this area it has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character. With the death toll over the past year exceeding that in Darfur and displacement affecting more than 350,000 people, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) should recognise the primarily local nature of the conflicts, extend state authority and prove itself a credible provider of security lest the problems become major obstacles on the road to self-determination and beyond. International partners must simultaneously step up their support or risk seeing the South become increasing unstable ahead of national elections and the self-determination referendum.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

85. Sri Lanka's Eastern Province: Land, Development, Conflict

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sri Lanka's government must address the security needs and land-related grievances of all ethnic communities in its Eastern Province or risk losing a unique opportunity for development and peace. Muslims, Tamils and Sinhalese all feel weak and under threat, and recent ethnic violence could easily worsen. The government must devolve real power to the newly elected provincial council, end impunity for ongoing human rights violations and work to develop a consensus on issues of land, security and power sharing with independent representatives of all communities, including those from opposition parties.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

86. Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's return to civilian government after eight years of military rule and the sidelining of the military's religious allies in the February 2008 elections offer an opportunity to restore the rule of law and to review and repeal discriminatory religious laws that restrict fundamental rights, fuel extremism and destabilise the country. Judicial reforms would remove the legal cover under which extremists target their rivals and exploit a culture of violence and impunity. Ensuring judicial independence would also strengthen the transition to democracy at a time when it is being undermined by worsening violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

87. The Philippines: The Collapse of Peace in Mindanao

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 14 October 2008 the Supreme Court of the Philippines declared a draft agreement between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippines government unconstitutional, effectively ending any hope of peacefully resolving the 30-year conflict in Mindanao while President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo remains in office. The Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD or MOA), the culmination of eleven years' negotiation, was originally scheduled to have been signed in Kuala Lumpur on 5 August. At the last minute, in response to petitions from local officials who said they had not been consulted about the contents, the court issued a temporary restraining order, preventing the signing. That injunction in turn led to renewed fighting that by mid-October had displaced some 390,000.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

88. Sudan's Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan's generation-long North-South civil war in 2005 is at risk in Southern Kordofan state, where many of the same ingredients exist that produced the vicious Darfur conflict. Both parties to that agreement, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), who together form the Government of National Unity in Khartoum, have been guilty of mistakes and misjudgements there as they manoeuvre for partisan advantage in advance of national elections scheduled for 2009. Any strategy for addressing the problems must recognise that time is short. Concrete progress on integration and reform is essential to address the prospect of what could be a devastating new conflict. Rapid interventions are needed, well before the national elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

89. Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform - Europe Briefing N°50

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Azerbaijan wants to create a strong army to regain Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts, either by improving its negotiating leverage with Armenia or going back to war. It has exponentially increased its military budget, though it has not so far gained clear superiority over Armenian forces. If the new military is to be not only stronger but also better governed, however, it needs deep reforms to make it less corrupt and personality driven, more transparent and better directed. So far there has been insufficient political will either to do the part that should involve increasing democratic and civilian control or to break the habit of treating the army as above all an instrument with which to protect elite interests.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and NATO
Political Geography:
Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

90. Correcting Course: Victims and the Justice and Peace Law in Colombia - Latin America Report N°29

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The more than 155,000 victims of Colombia's conflict registered to date with the attorney general's Justice and Peace Unit (JPU) – mostly those who suffered from the paramilitaries – are mainly onlookers to, not actors in, a lagging transitional justice process. Over three years after passage, implementation of the Justice and Peace Law (JPL) is stymied by the relative disinterest in promoting victims' rights of the Uribe government and much of political and civil society. The problems are exacerbated by serious operational and financial bottlenecks in the judicial process and assistance and reparations to victims, as well as the persistence of armed conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) insurgents and the emergence of new illegal armed groups (NIAGs) and paramilitary successors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil Society, Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America