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Begin New Search Topic Politics Political Geography South Asia Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution International Crisis Group Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Nepal's Constitution (I): Evolution not Revolution

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's peace process was to end with a new constitution. Yet, after four years of delays and disputes, the country's main political parties were unable to agree on federalism, a core demand of large constituencies. On 27 May 2012, the term of the Constituent Assembly, which also served as parliament, ended without the new constitution being completed. The parties must now decide what to do next: hold an election for a new assembly or revive the last one. This will be hard. Obduracy on federalism, bickering over a unity government, a changing political landscape and communal polarisation make for complex negotiations, amid a dangerous legislative vacuum. The parties must assess what went wrong and significantly revise the composition and design of negotiations, or risk positions hardening across the political spectrum. Talks and decision-making need to be transparent and inclusive, and leaders more accountable. The public needs much better information. None of this will necessarily mend the deep social rifts, but it would reduce space for extremists and provocateurs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia

2. Nepal's Constitution (II): The Expanding Political Matrix

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process and stalled constitution writing exercise, in particular the debate about federalism, have expanded Nepal's political matrix. Identity politics is a mainstream phenomenon and new ethnic-based and regional political forces are coalescing. Actors who want a federal structure that acknowledges Nepal's many identities have allied, overcoming other political differences. The Maoist party has split. Once centrist forces have moved to the right. All parties are grappling with factional and ideological divisions. Old monarchical forces are more visible. How these political shifts will settle depends on the parties' decisions on resuming constitution writing and future electoral calculations. The Constituent Assembly has been dissolved after failing to deliver the new constitution on the 27 May deadline. The constitution was to establish federalism and address the demands of marginalised groups. Social polarisation over these issues compounds constitutional uncertainty and the legislative vacuum. The tensions around federalism and fluid political equations threaten to provoke volatile confrontations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia

3. Nepal's Fitful Peace Process

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is entering a new phase in its fitful peace process, in which its so-called "logical conclusion" is in sight: the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants and the introduction of a new constitution. The Maoists, the largest party, are back in government in a coalition led by the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), UML party. Negotiations, although fraught, are on with the second-largest party, the Nepali Congress (NC), to join. Agreement is being reached on constitutional issues and discussions continue on integration. None of the actors are ramping up for serious confrontation and few want to be seen as responsible for the collapse of the constitution-writing process underway in the Constituent Assembly (CA). But success depends on parties in opposition keeping tactical threats to dissolve the CA to a minimum, the government keeping them engaged, and the parties in government stabilising their own precariously divided houses. It will also require the Maoists to take major steps to dismantle their army.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Nepal

4. INDONESIA: JEMAAH ISLAMIYAH'S PUBLISHING INDUSTRY

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A handful of members and persons close to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Indonesia's most prominent extremist organisation, have developed a profitable publishing consortium in and around the pesantren (religious school) founded by Abu Bakar Ba'asyir and Abdullah Sungkar in Solo, Central Java. The consortium has become an important vehicle for the dissemination of jihadi thought, getting cheap and attractively printed books into mosques, bookstores and discussion groups. The publishing venture demonstrates JI's resilience and the extent to which radical ideology has developed roots in Indonesia. The Indonesian government should monitor these enterprises more closely, but they may be playing a useful role by channelling JI energies into waging jihad through the printed page rather than acts of violence.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

5. Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's military government launched a campaign for political devolution in 2000 that it said was aimed at transferring administrative and financial power to local governments. The scheme was to strengthen local control and accountability and, according to President Pervez Musharraf, "empower the impoverished". In practice, however, it has undercut established political parties and drained power away from the provinces while doing little to minimise corruption or establish clear accountability at a local level. The reforms, far from enhancing democracy, have strengthened military rule and may actually raise the risks of internal conflict.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

6. Nepal: Dangerous Plans for Village Militias

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Government of Nepal is creating local civilian militias – known as Rural Volunteer Security Groups and Peace Committees – in what risks becoming an alarming escalation of its conflict with Maoist rebels. Civilian militias are likely to become an untrained, unaccountable and undisciplined armed force that worsens a conflict that has already taken almost 9,000 lives. The scheme is controversial, and the government has publicly denied that it has already started distributing weapons despite evidence that it is indeed going ahead.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

7. Dividing Papua: How Now To Do It

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A presidential instruction (Inpres) issued in January 2003 to divide Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province, into three parts has done more to create tension and turmoil there than any government action in years. The instruction undercuts a special autonomy law passed by the parliament in November 2001 that assumed the province to be a single territorial unit, and it has thrown Papua's administrative status into legal limbo. It undermines moderate intellectuals who saw special autonomy as a way of strengthening Papuan institutions and encouraging independence supporters to work within the Indonesian state. It has infuriated many Papuans, pro-independence and pro-autonomy alike, who have a deep attachment to Papua as a single political unit with a distinct history and who see the decree as a divide-and-rule tactic by Jakarta. All major religious leaders in the province have come out against it.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

8. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

9. Pakistan: Madrasas, Extremism And The Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In its new role as key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, Pakistan's military government has toned down many policies that previously fostered militancy and religious extremism within the country and internationally. Action against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and home-grown sectarian terrorists are examples. But the military's confrontation with its former religious allies is likely, at best, a short-term response compelled by circumstances and foreign pressure.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia