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701. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro

702. Starting from Scratch in Kosovo: The Honeymoon Is Over

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After an unprecedented, multilateral military intervention in Kosovo succeeded in expelling Serb forces and enabling the return home of more than a million displaced persons, the international community embarked on the ambitious, long-term project of securing, rebuilding, and establishing the rule of law in Kosovo, while setting the territory on the path to self-governance. Visionary promises were made to the people of Kosovo, and careful planning was undertaken at NATO and United Nations headquarters and in many European capitals. But six months into the mission, the international community has so far not been able to deliver on its promises. No Kosovars of any ethnicity feel secure, tens of thousands of people remain without adequate shelter as winter sets in, civil registration has yet to get underway, there is as yet no agreed-upon, functional system of justice, and criminals – including suspected war criminals – continue to operate with effective impunity.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

703. Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

704. Waiting For UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than four months have passed since the start of the deployment of the United Nations in Kosovo. While first efforts were concentrated on the creation of a secure environment and the distribution of humanitarian aid, Civil Administration, the pillar of UNMIK which plays the role of a government, has been slow in reaching the local level.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

705. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

706. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
Topic:
NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

707. Who's Who in Kosovo

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

708. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro

709. Preventing Minority Return in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 1999 action plan of the Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF) represents the most determined effort yet to implement a policy of mass minority return in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the signs at mid-season are that the results for 1999 will once again be disappointing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

710. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

711. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

712. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia

713. The New Kosovo Protectorate

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

714. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia

715. Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

716. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

717. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

718. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

719. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

720. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

721. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

722. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

723. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

724. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

725. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

726. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

727. The State Of Albania

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

728. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia