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1. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Boko Haram's four-year-old insurgency has pitted neighbour against neighbour, cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced close to half a million, destroyed hundreds of schools and government buildings and devastated an already ravaged economy in the North East, one of Nigeria's poorest regions. It overstretches federal security services, with no end in sight, spills over to other parts of the north and risks reaching Niger and Cameroon, weak countries poorly equipped to combat a radical Islamist armed group tapping into real governance, corruption, impunity and underdevelopment grievances shared by most people in the region. Boko Haram is both a serious challenge and manifestation of more profound threats to Nigeria's security. Unless the federal and state governments, and the region, develop and implement comprehensive plans to tackle not only insecurity but also the injustices that drive much of the troubles, Boko Haram, or groups like it, will continue to destabilise large parts of the country. Yet, the government's response is largely military, and political will to do more than that appears entirely lacking.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

4. Afghanistan's Insurgency after the Transition

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan entered a new phase in 2013. It now is increasingly a contest between the insurgents and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Many within and outside the government are more optimistic about stability in the wake of a relatively successful first round of presidential elections on 5 April 2014. However, any euphoria should be tempered by a realistic assessment of the security challenges that President Karzai's successor will face in the transitional period of 2014-2015. Kabul may find these challenges difficult to overcome without significant and sustained international security, political and economic support.
Topic:
International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

5. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

6. Lebanon's Hizbollah Turns Eastward to Syria

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lebanese Shiite armed movement Hizbollah has gone all-in for Syrian President Bashar Assad. It has shown it will back his regime by any means necessary, despite doubts about its capacity to win a decisive victory and regardless of the risks to the movement's own moral standing and cross-sectarian appeal. As it is drawn ever-deeper into its neighbour's civil war that seems poised to endure for years, it finds itself increasingly distracted from its original anti-Israel focus and risking a profound reshaping of its identity.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

7. The Huthis: From Saada to Sanaa

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The power balance in Yemen's north is shifting. In early 2014, Zaydi Shiite fighters, known as the Huthis or Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), won a series of battles, in effect consolidating their control over Saada governorate, on the border of Saudi Arabia, and expanding southward to the gates of the capital, Sanaa. Now a patchwork of shaky ceasefires is in place, albeit battered by bouts of violence. Tensions are high between Huthis and their various opponents – the Ahmar family, Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar (no relation to the Ahmar family) and his military allies, Salafi fighters, and the Sunni Islamist party, Islah, and their affiliated tribes. Fear is growing that an escalation could draw the state into a prolonged conflict. To head off a conflagration, the parties must turn the inchoate understandings reached during the country's National Dialogue Conference (NDC) into an implementable peace plan.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

8. Turkey's Kurdish Impasse: The View from Diyarbakır

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As Turkey's biggest Kurdish- majority city and province, Diyarbakır is critical to any examination of the country's Kurdish problem and of the insurgent PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). The armed conflict has deteriorated in the past year and a half to its worst level in over a decade, with increased political friction and violence leading to the deaths of at least 870 people since June 2011. While as many Kurds live in western Turkey, particularly in Istanbul, as in the south east, grievances that underlie support within Kurdish communities for the PKK's armed struggle are more clearly on display in predominantly Kurdish areas like Diyarbakır: perceived and real discrimination in the local government and economy, alienation from central authorities, anger at mass arrests of political rep- resentatives and frustration at the bans on the use of Kurdish in education and public life. Yet Diyarbakır still offers hope for those who want to live together, if Ankara acts firmly to address these grievances and ensure equality and justice for all.
Topic:
Civil War, Communism, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Turkey

9. The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The pact signed on 15 October 2012 between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine government is a breakthrough in many ways but is far from a final peace. As with earlier texts signed over years of negotiations, this one – the “framework agreement” – defers several tough questions and it is unclear how, if ever, they will be resolved. At stake is the creation of a genuinely autonomous region in Muslim-majority Mindanao for the various ethnic groups collectively known as the Bangsamoro, with more powers, more territory and more control over resources. The framework agreement envisions a new government for the troubled Muslim south that would raise its own revenues and have its own police and judiciary. It maps out a multi-step process to create this new entity by the time President Benigno Aquino III's term ends in 2016. The obstacles ahead are huge. Politics in Mindanao or Manila could get in the way, and it may be impossible to devolve sufficient power to the Bangsamoro government without running afoul of the constitution. The MILF is unlikely to surrender its arms until the process is complete.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

10. The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision in October 2011 to deploy thousands of troops in Somalia's Juba Valley to wage war on Al-Shabaab is the biggest security gamble Kenya has taken since independence, a radical departure for a country that has never sent its soldiers abroad to fight. Operation Linda Nchi (Protect the Country) was given the go-ahead with what has shown itself to be inadequate political, diplomatic and military preparation; the potential for getting bogged down is high; the risks of an Al-Shabaab retaliatory terror campaign are real; and the prospects for a viable, extremist- free and stable polity emerging in the Juba Valley are slim. The government is unlikely to heed any calls for a troop pullout: it has invested too much, and pride is at stake. Financial and logistical pressures will ease once its force becomes part of the African Union (AU) mission in Somalia (AMISOM). But it should avoid prolonged “occupation” of southern Somalia, lest it turn local Somali opinion against the intervention and galvanise an armed resistance that could be co-opted by Al-Shabaab, much as happened to Ethiopia during its 2006-2009 intervention.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Somalia

11. The Philippines: Local Politics in the Sulu Archipelago and the Peace Process

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Politics in the Sulu archipelago could be an unforeseen stumbling block for a negotiated peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines. So far the presumed spoilers have been Christian settlers, conservative nationalists, and recalcitrant members of the other insurgency in the Muslim south, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The islands off the coast of Mindanao have been all but forgotten. But the provincial governors of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, although Muslim, are wary of any agreement that would allow the MILF, dominated by ethnically distinct groups from Central Mindanao, to extend its sway and jeopardise the patronage system they enjoy with Manila. The challenge for the government of President Benigno Aquino III is to find a way to offer more meaningful autonomy to the MILF and overcome differences between the MILF and MNLF without alienating powerful clan leaders from the Sulu archipelago with a capacity to make trouble.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

12. Syria's Mutating Conflict

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
At a distance, Syria's conflict can resemble a slow, painful slog, punctuated by intermittent accelerations and apparent tipping points, influenced by international activity. Zoom in, and one can cast such impressions aside. Diplomatic manoeuvrings have ended up being little more than inertia masquerading as motion. The West used them to pretend it was doing more than it was; Russia exploited them to feign it backed the Syrian regime less than it actually did. Meanwhile, in Syria, one sees neither deadlock nor abrupt transformation; virtually everything has been changing but at a steady pace: the shape of the conflict; civil society dynamics; sectarian relations; and the very nature of the regime the opposition seeks to depose.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

13. Turkey: The PKK and a Kurdish Settlement

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Turkey's Kurdish conflict is becoming more violent, with more than 700 dead in fourteen months, the highest casualties in thirteen years. Prolonged clashes with militants in the south east, kidnappings and attacks on civilians suggest hardliners are gaining the upper hand in the insurgent PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). The government and mainstream media should resist the impulse to call for all out anti-terrorist war and focus instead, together with Kurds, on long-term conflict resolution. There is need to reform oppressive laws that jail legitimate Kurdish politicians and make amends for security forces' excess. The Kurdish movement, including PKK leaders, must abjure terrorist attacks and publicly commit to realistic political goals. Above all, politicians on all sides must legalise the rights most of Turkey's Kurds seek, including mother-language education; an end to discriminatory laws; fair political representation; and more decentralisation. Turkey's Kurds would then have full equality and rights, support for PKK violence would drop, and the government would be better placed to negotiate insurgent disarmament and demobilisation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Communism, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, and Kurdistan

14. Colombia: Peace at Last?

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After decades of failed negotiations and attempts to defeat the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas and the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN) militarily, a political solution to the Western Hemisphere's oldest conflict may be in sight. Following a year of secret contacts, formal peace talks with FARC are to open in Oslo in October 2012 and continue in Havana. They may be extended to the ELN. There seems a firmer willingness to reach an agreement, as the government realises military means alone cannot end the conflict and FARC appears to recognise that the armed struggle permits survival but little else. With no ceasefire in place, both sides must act with restraint on the battlefield to generate immediate humanitarian improvements. And they will need to balance the requirements of fast, discreet negotiations and those of representativeness and inclusion. The government and the guerrillas have the historic responsibility to strike a deal, but only strong social and political ownership of that deal can guarantee that it leads to the lasting peace that has been elusive for so long.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Government, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

15. India and Sri Lanka after the LTTE

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
India has long been the country with the greatest influence over Sri Lanka but its policies to encourage the government there towards a sustainable peace are not working. Despite India's active engagement and unprecedented financial assistance, the Sri Lankan government has failed to make progress on pressing post-war challenges. Government actions and the growing political power of the military are instead generating new grievances that increase the risk of an eventual return to violence. To support a sustainable and equitable post-war settlement in Sri Lanka and limit the chances of another authoritarian and military-dominated government on its borders, India needs to work more closely with the United States, the European Union and Japan, encouraging them to send the message that Sri Lanka's current direction is not acceptable. It should press for the demilitarisation of the north, a return to civil administration there and in the east and the end of emergency rule throughout the country.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Armed Struggle, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, South Asia, India, and Sri Lanka

16. The Philippines: Indigenous Rights and the MILF Peace Process

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The indigenous peoples of the southern Philippines known as the Lumad are in a precarious position as the peace process between Muslim rebels and the government moves forward. If and when a settlement is reached, thorny questions about protecting their distinct identity and land will have to be addressed. Many of the tribes fear that because they lack titles for their traditional territory, they will be unable to claim the resources and exercise their right to self-governance after a deal is signed. The question is what can be done now to reassure them that they will retain control of their land. While the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) may be ill-suited to advancing indigenous rights because its structure and content do not prioritise these issues, the government and the MILF should take steps both within and outside the parameters of formal negotiations to respond more concretely to the concerns of the Lumad.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Poverty, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

17. The Lord's Resistance Army: End Game?

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) remains a deadly threat to civilians in three Central African states. After a ceasefire and negotiations for peaceful settlement of the generation-long insurgency broke down in 2008, Uganda's army botched an initial assault. In three years since, half-hearted operations have failed to stop the small, brutally effective band from killing more than 2,400 civilians, abducting more than 3,400 and causing 440,000 to flee. In 2010 President Museveni withdrew about half the troops to pursue more politically rewarding goals. Congolese mistrust hampers current operations, and an African Union (AU) initiative has been slow to start. While there is at last a chance to defeat the LRA, both robust military action and vigorous diplomacy is required. Uganda needs to take advantage of new, perhaps brief, U.S. engagement by reinvigorating the military offensive; Washington needs to press regional leaders for cooperation; above all, the AU must act promptly to live up to its responsibilities as guarantor of continental security. When it does, Uganda and the U.S. should fold their efforts into the AU initiative.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Religion, Torture, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and United States

18. Radical Islam in Gaza

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent Israel-Hamas escalation returns a spotlight to Gaza and the Islamist movement's relationship with more militant organisations. Gaza arouses multiple concerns: does Hamas seeks to impose religious law; has its purported Islamisation stimulated growth of Salafi-Jihadi groups; and will al-Qaeda offshoots find a foothold there? Hamas faces competition from more radical Islamist groups, though their numbers are few, organisation poor, achievements against Israel so far minor and chances of threatening Gaza's government slight. The significance of Gaza's Salafi-Jihadis is less military capability than constraints they impose on Hamas: they are an ideological challenge; they appeal to members of its military wing, a powerful constituency; through attacks within and from Gaza, they threaten security; by criticising Hamas for not fighting Israel or implementing Sharia, they exert pressure for more militancy and Islamisation. The policy of isolating Gaza and ignoring Hamas exacerbates this problem. As the international community seeks new ways to address political Islam in the Arab upheaval's wake, Gaza is not the worst place to start.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

19. Indonesian Jihadism: Small Groups, Big Plans

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violent extremism in Indonesia increasingly is taking the form of small groups acting independently of large jihadi organisations. This is in part a response to effective law enforcement that has resulted in widespread arrests and structural weakening of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Jama'ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) and other organisations accused of links to terrorism. But it is also the result of ideological shifts that favour “individual” over “organisational” jihad and low-cost, small-scale targeted killings over mass casualty attacks that inadvertently kill Muslims. The suicide bombing inside a police station mosque on 15 April 2011 and a spate of letter bombs delivered in Jakarta in mid-March are emblematic of the shift. The government needs urgently to develop prevention strategies to reduce the likelihood that more such groups will emerge.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

20. The Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora after the LTTE

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the past quarter-century the Tamil diaspora has shaped the Sri Lankan political landscape through its financial and ideological support to the military struggle for an independent Tamil state. Although the May 2009 defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has dramatically reduced the diaspora\'s influence, the majority of Tamils outside Sri Lanka continue to support a separate state, and the diaspora\'s money can ensure it plays a role in the country\'s future. The nature of that role, however, depends largely on how Colombo deals with its Tamil citizens in the coming months and on how strongly the international community presses the government to enact constitutional reforms to share power with and protect the rights of Tamils and other minorities. While the million-strong diaspora cannot regenerate an insurgency in Sri Lanka on its own, its money and organisation could turn up the volume on any violence that might eventually re-emerge.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, Diaspora, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Sri Lanka

21. The Threat from Jammat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a terrorist organisation, remains active and dangerous despite the decimation of its ranks over the last five years. Its links to the Pakistan group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) remain a particularly serious concern. Since its coordinated bombing attack across the country on 17 August 2005, police have arrested hundreds of JMB members; they have also executed every member of its original leadership, including its founder, Shaikh Abdur Rahman. Its last successful attack was in January 2006. The state has succeeded in tackling the Islamist extremist threat to the extent that organisations such as JMB are struggling to survive. But the arrest of 95 JMB operatives since October 2008 and discoveries of huge caches of explosives demonstrate that JMB was able to regroup, recruit and raise funds. No one should take its demise for granted: the possibility of another attack remains, and the government should move quickly to create a planned policeled counter-terrorism force. It should also step up counterterrorism cooperation, particularly with neighbouring India.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

22. Radicalisation and Dialogue in Papua

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia's easternmost province of Papua saw an up- surge in political violence in 2009, continuing into 2010. One factor was the increased activity of militant activists from the central highlands, many of them members of the West Papua National Committee (Komite Nasional Papua Barat, KNPB). They decided there was no longer any hope of achieving their main objective – a referendum on independence – through peaceful means, and led some to advocate violence and in some cases directly participate in violent acts. Their tactics are decried by many Papuans, but their message resonates widely, and the frustrations they articulate are real. A dialogue between Papuan leaders and central government officials, if carefully prepared, offers the possibility of addressing some longstanding grievances, without calling Indonesian sovereignty into question.
Topic:
Political Violence, Sovereignty, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

23. Madagascar : sortir du cycle de crises

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Madagascar est en crise depuis les troubles sanglants qui l'ont secoué début 2009. Plusieurs mois de médiation sous l'égide de l'Union africaine (UA), entre autres, n'ont pas permis de débloquer la situation. Malgré la signature de plusieurs documents, et l'annonce de l'Union africaine de sanctions individuelles contre les membres du regime le 17 mars, les négociations n'ont pas abouti, principalement à cause du refus du gouvernement Rajoelina de mettre en oeuvre le partage du pouvoir accepté à Maputo en août. Bien que la violence ait été contenue depuis qu'il a pris le pouvoir en mars 2009, la légitimité du régime est remise en question tant à l'intérieur du pays qu'à l'extérieur, alors qu'une situation économique difficile pèse lourdement sur une population déjà appauvrie. Pour éviter toute escalade, la médiation devrait cesser d'essayer de mettre en place une transition fondée sur un partage du pouvoir, et tenter plutôt d'obtenir un accord sur la rédaction consensuelle d'une nouvelle constitution et l'organisation rapide d'élections sous supervision internationale
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Environment, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

24. Indonesia: Jihadi Surprise in Aceh

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The discovery in late February 2010 of a jihadi training camp in Aceh came as a surprise in three ways. It revealed a major mutation in Indonesian jihadi ranks: a new coalition had emerged that rejected both Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the best-known such organisation in the region, and the more violent splinter group led until his death in September 2009 by Noordin Top. It had chosen Aceh as a base, despite the antipathy of Acehnese to radical Islam. And it was led by Dulmatin, one of South East Asia's most wanted terrorists, whom officials in both Indonesia and the Philippines believed was in Mindanao.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Terrorism, International Affairs, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

25. LRA: A Regional Strategy beyond Killing Kony

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has become a regional problem that requires a regional solution. Operation Lightning Thunder, launched in December 2008, is the Ugandan army's latest attempt to crush militarily the one- time northern Ugandan rebel group. It has been a failure. After the initial attack, small groups of LRA fighters dispersed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR), where they survive by preying on civilians. National security forces are too weak to protect their own people, while the Ugandan army, with U.S. support, is focused on hunting Joseph Kony, the group's leader. The Ugandans have eroded the LRA's numbers and made its communications more difficult. But LRA fighters, though disorganised, remain a terrible danger to civilians in this mostly ungoverned frontier zone. National armies, the UN and civilians themselves need to pool intelligence and coordinate their efforts in new ways if they are to end the LRA once and for all.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, United States, and South Sudan

26. War Crimes in Sri Lanka

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sri Lankan security forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) repeatedly violated international humanitarian law during the last five months of their 30-year civil war. Although both sides committed atrocities throughout the many years of conflict, the scale and nature of violations particularly worsened from January 2009 to the government's declaration of victory in May. Evidence gathered by the International Crisis Group suggests that these months saw tens of thousands of Tamil civilian men, women, children and the elderly killed, countless more wounded, and hundreds of thousands deprived of adequate food and medical care, resulting in more deaths.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, International Law, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

27. Bridging Thailand's Deep Divide

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The protracted struggle between the royalist establishment and those allied with ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has left Thailand deeply polarised. It sparked the most violent political confrontations in recent times, killing people, injuring nearly 2,000 and inflicting deep wounds on the national psyche. The government of Abhisit Vejjajiva's unilateral offer of a “road map” to national reconciliation will lead nowhere without the participation of its opposition, including his deposed predecessor. A credible investigation of the violence, enduring legal reforms, and properly addressing societal inequities cannot succeed without the Thaksin-aligned Red Shirt movement. This cannot happen if its leaders are detained, marginalised, or on the run. Fresh elections that are peace­ful, fair and accepted by all sides will be the first test to see if the country is back on track or has lost its way. Thailand should lift the emergency decree imposed over large swathes of the country or risk further damaging its democracy, hindering much needed reconciliation, and sowing the seeds of future deadly conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

28. Drums of War: Israel and the "Axis of Resistance"

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Of all the explanations why calm has prevailed in the Israeli-Lebanese arena since the end of the 2006 war, the principal one also should be cause for greatest concern: fear among the parties that the next confrontation would be far more devastating and broader in scope. None of the most directly relevant actors – Israel, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran – relishes this prospect, so all, for now, are intent on keeping their powder dry. But the political roots of the crisis remain unaddressed, the underlying dynamics are still explosive, and miscalculations cannot be ruled out. The only truly effective approach is one that would seek to resume – and conclude – meaningful Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. There is no other answer to the Hizbollah dilemma and, for now, few better ways to affect Tehran's calculations. Short of such an initiative, deeper political involvement by the international community is needed to enhance communications between the parties, defuse tensions and avoid costly missteps.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Hegemony, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

29. Colombia: President Santos's Conflict Resolution Opportunity

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Juan Manuel Santos, in office since 7 August 2010, has an opportunity to end Colombia's generations of armed conflict by building on but adjusting and substantially broadening the strategy followed for eight years by his predecessor. Alvaro Uribe's predominantly military approach–the “democratic security policy”–did produce important security gains, but Colombia remains plagued by new illegal armed groups (NIAGs) and other criminal actors. By concentrating mainly on fighting the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), it neglected other sources of violence and, most importantly, failed to address underlying causes of the conflict. Santos, who was elected with the largest majority in history, should use his political capital to implement a more integrated conflict resolution strategy that advances institutional and structural reforms needed to address illegality and impunity, expand access to services and tackle issues of land and victims' rights.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

30. Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prematurely and exaggeratedly highlighted by the regime, belatedly and reluctantly acknowledged by the opposition, the presence of a powerful Salafi strand among Syria's rebels has become irrefutable. That is worrisome, but forms only part of a complex picture. To begin, not all Salafis are alike; the concept covers a gamut ranging from mainstream to extreme. Secondly, present-day Syria offers Salafis hospitable terrain – violence and sectarianism; disenchantment with the West, secular leaders and pragmatic Islamic figures; as well as access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow – but also adverse conditions, including a moderate Islamic tradition, pluralistic confessional make-up, and widespread fear of the kind of sectarian civil war that engulfed two neighbours. Thirdly, failure of the armed push this past summer caused a backlash against Salafi groups that grabbed headlines during the fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

31. Yemen: Defusing the Saada Time Bomb

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Away from media headlines, a war has been raging on and off in Yemen's northern governorate of Saada since 2004, flaring up in adjacent regions and, in 2008, reaching the outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. The conflict, which has brought about extensive destruction, pits a rebel group, known generically as the Huthis, against government forces. Today's truce is fragile and risks being short-lived. A breakdown would threaten Yemen's stability, already under severe duress due to the global economic meltdown, depleting national resources, renewed tensions between the country's northern elites and populations in the south and the threat from violent groups with varied links to al-Qaeda. Nor would the impact necessarily be contained within national borders. The country should use its traditional instruments-social and religious tolerance, cooptation of adversaries-to forge a more inclusive compact that reduces sectarian stigmatisation and absorbs the Huthis. International actors-principally Gulf States and the West-should use their leverage and the promise of reconstruction assistance to press both government and rebels to compromise.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

32. Recruiting Militants in Southern Thailand

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While Thai leaders are preoccupied with turmoil in Bangkok, the insurgency in the South continues to recruit young Malay Muslims, especially from private Islamic schools. These institutions are central to maintenance of Malay Muslim identity, and many students are receptive to the call to take up arms against the state. This is not a struggle in solidarity with global jihad, rather an ethno-nationalist insurgency with its own version of history aimed at reclaiming what was once the independent sultanate of Patani. Human rights abuses by the Thai government and security forces have only fuelled this secessionist fervour, and policies that centralise power in the capital have undermined a regional political solution. Changing these policies and practices is essential as the government tries to respond to the insurgents' grievances in order to bring long-lasting peace to the region.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Bangkok