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2. Competing visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an anti-ISIS coalition
- Author:
- Jennifer Cafarella
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group’s evaluation of several courses of action.
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
3. Afghanistan Order of Battle
- Author:
- Morgan Wesley
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Afghanistan ORBAT (PDF) describes the location and area of responsibility of all American units in Afghanistan, down to the battalion level, updated as of February 2016..
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
4. Hezbollah in Syria
- Author:
- Marisa Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
5. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Ninewa, Anbar, and Diyala
6. ISIS Governance in Syria
- Author:
- Charles C. Caris and Samuel Reynolds
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State's June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS's political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves first establishing control of terrain through military conquest and then reinforcing this control through governance. This grand strategy proceeds in phases that have been laid out by ISIS itself in its publications, and elaborates a vision that it hopes will attract both fighters and citizens to its nascent state. The declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, however, raises the question: can ISIS govern?
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Syria
7. A strategy to defeat the islamic state
- Author:
- Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica D. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State poses a grave danger to the United States and its allies in the Middle East and around the world due to its location, resources, the skill and determination of its leaders and fighters, and its demonstrated lethality compared to other al Qaeda-like groups. In Syria, the Assad regime has lost control of the majority of the state, and the regime's atrocities and sectarianism have fueled violent Islamists, particularly ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). In Iraq, the government has lost control over large portions of territory that the Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdish Peshmerga are incapable of retaking without significant foreign support. The Sunni Arabs of Iraq and Syria are the decisive human terrain. Al-Qaeda and similar groups can only flourish in distressed Sunni communities. Any strategy to counter al-Qaeda requires working with these communities, as the U.S. and the Iraqi government did during the Awakening in 2007. Having neglected Iraq and Syria, the U.S. currently lacks the basic intelligence and contextual understanding to build a strategy. The U.S. must adopt an iterative approach that tests assumptions, enriches understanding, builds partnerships with willing Sunni Arabs, and sets conditions for more decisive operations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Syria
8. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham and the "Cleansing" of Deir ez-Zour
- Author:
- Valerie Szybala
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Following the January 2014 uprising by rebel groups in Syria against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), ISIS contracted its footprint in Syria. The group was pushed out, tactically withdrew, or went below the radar in cities and towns across much of Idlib, Aleppo, and Deir ez-Zour. It continued to battle the Kurds in Hasaka, but constituted most of its strength in ar-Raqqa, where it is in firm control of the provincial capital and several other towns. In Syria's eastern province of Deir ez-Zour, ISIS is attempting a resurgence. At the end of March 2014, ISIS began to move forces from the north into place for an offensive back into the heart of rebel territory in Deir ez-Zour province. This resurgence has come in the form of an offensive largely against Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic Front, which are predominant in the province. Local tribal militias have come to play an increasing role as well.
- Topic:
- Sectarianism and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
9. ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- There are indications that ISIS is about to launch into a new offensive in Iraq. ISIS published photos of a military parade through the streets of Mosul on June 24, 2014 showcasing U.S. military equipment, including armored vehicles and towed artillery systems. ISIS reportedly executed another parade in Hawijah on June 26, 2014. These parades may be a demonstration of force to reinforce their control of these urban centers. They may also be a prelude to ISIS troop movements, and it is important to anticipate where ISIS may deploy these forces forward. Meanwhile, ISIS also renewed the use of suicide bombers in the vicinity of Baghdad. An ISIS bomber with a suicide vest (SVEST) attacked the Kadhimiya shrine in northern Baghdad on June 26, 2014, one of the four holy sites in Iraq that Iran and Shi'a militias are most concerned to protect. ISIS also incorporated an SVEST into a complex attack in Mahmudiyah, south of Baghdad, on June 25, 2014 in a zone primarily controlled by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Shi'a militias on the road from Baghdad to Karbala. These attacks are demonstrations that ISIS has uncommitted forces in the Baghdad Belts that may be brought to bear in new offensives. ISIS's offensive has not culminated, and the ISIS campaign for Iraq is not over. Rather, as Ramadan approaches, their main offensive is likely imminent.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
10. Iraq Situation Report: August 4, 2014
- Author:
- Nichole Dicharry
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Forces from the Peshmerga were deployed to the Mosul Dam. The new force is reportedly larger and better equipped than the forces that had clashed with ISIS previously in the area. Also, unconfirmed reports suggest that the Peshmerga have retaken the area of Wana, located near the dam, that fell to ISIS yesterday.
- Topic:
- Armed Struggle, Refugee Issues, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
11. Iraq Situation Report: July 30, 2014
- Author:
- Nichole Dicharry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- ISIS published images of Eid celebrations in Mosul showing kids and teenagers playing at a large carnival. The images also showed ISIS members handing out candy to children. This comes after residents from Mosul and ISIS reported that the organization launched a radio station in the city.
- Topic:
- Islam, Governance, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
12. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
13. Hezbollah in Syria
- Author:
- Marisa Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
14. The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged. The security situation and sectarian tension in Diyala province are grave. ISIS has returned to fixed fighting positions within Muqdadiyah, Baqubah, and the Diyala River Valley. Shi'a militias are now active in these areas as well. Increasing instances of population displacement demonstrate the aggregate effect of targeted violence by both groups. It is important to estimate the effects of this displacement and the presence of armed groups within Diyala's major cities in order to understand how deteriorated security conditions in this province will interfere with Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections. Furthermore, violence in Diyala has historically both driven and reflected inter-ethnic and inter-sectarian violence in other mixed areas of Iraq, including Baghdad. Diyala is therefore a significant bellwether for how quickly these types of violence will spread to other provinces.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
15. Assad Strikes Damascus
- Author:
- Valerie Szybala
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Damascus is the Syrian regime's center of gravity. The capital of Syria has long been viewed by the rebel forces as the key to winning the war in Syria, and its loss is unthinkable for Bashar al-Assad. Thus the struggle for Damascus is existential for the regime as well as the opposition. An operational understanding of the battle for Damascus is critical to understanding the imminent trajectory of the war. This report details the course of the conflict as it engulfed Damascus in 2013; laying out the regime's strategy and describing the political and military factors that shaped its decisions on the battlefield.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16. Afghanistan - Order of Battle
- Author:
- Wesley Morgan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This document describes the composition and placement of U.S. and other Western combat and advisory forces in Afghanistan down to battalion level. It includes the following categories of units: maneuver (i.e. infantry, armor, and cavalry) units, which in most cases are responsible for advising or partnering with Afghan troops in particular districts or provinces; artillery units; aviation units, both rotary and fixed-wing; military police units; most types of engineer and explosive ordnance disposal units; and “white” special operations forces. It does not include “black” special operations units or other units such as logistical, transportation, medical, and intelligence units or Provincial Reconstruction Teams.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
17. Afghanistan – Order of Battle
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This document describes the composition and placement of U.S. and other Western combat and advisory forces in Afghanistan down to battalion level. It includes the following categories of units: maneuver (i.e. infantry, armor, and cavalry) units, which in most cases are responsible for advising or partnering with Afghan troops in particular districts or provinces; artillery units; aviation units, both rotary and fixed-wing; military police units; most types of engineer and explosive ordnance disposal units; and "white" special operations forces. It does not include "black" special operations units or other units such as logistical, transportation, medical, and intelligence units or Provincial Reconstruction Teams.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
18. Iraq's Provincial Elections and their National Implications
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On April 20th, Iraq will hold its third provincial elections since 2005. There are 447 open seats nationwide, and competition for them is fierce. Previous elections illustrate that winning provincial seats can reverberate on the national level. A simple majority of seats offers the parties an opportunity to control the senior provincial posts, including the governorship and chairmanship of the councils. Control of these positions provides space for maneuvering to achieve national level objectives.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
19. Iraq's sectarian crisis reignites as Shi'a militias execute civilians and remobilize
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Escalating violence in Iraq crossed a new and very dangerous threshold this week. Al Qaeda in Iraq launched a concentrated wave of car-bomb and other attacks specifically against civilian Shi'a targets in and around Baghdad. Shi'a militias are mobilizing and have begun a round of sectarian killings facilitated by false checkpoints, a technique characteristic of the 2006-2007 period. Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has taken a number of steps to demonstrate that he remains in control of the situation. The expansion of Shi'a militia activity, however, is likely to persuade many Iraqis that he is either not in control or is actively abetting the killings. The re-mobilization of Shi'a militias in Iraq coincides with the formal announcement by Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of his organization's active military participation in the Syrian civil war. Al Qaeda in Iraq's sectarian mass-murder attacks coincide with the announcement by AQI's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, that attacking Hezbollah is that group's primary target henceforth. The stage appears to be set not merely for the collapse of the Iraqi state into the kind of vicious sectarian killing and sectarian cleansing that nearly destroyed it in 2006 and 2007, but also for the expansion of that sectarian warfare throughout both Mesopotamia and the Levant.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
20. AQI's "Soldiers' Harvest" Campaign
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) announced "The Soldiers' Harvest," a new campaign on July 29, 2013, immediately after the Abu Ghraib prison attack. AQI then declared that event the conclusion of the "Breaking the Walls" campaign, which apparently achieved its goals: to stoke sectarian violence by targeting Shi'a communities; and to reconstitute the veteran AQI fighting force by breaking former members out of Iraq's prisons. ISW has assessed that AQI has reconstituted as a professional military force. It is therefore crucial to examine the first 60 days of the new "Soldiers' Harvest" campaign for indications of what AQI means to accomplish this year. Initial indications suggest that AQI will seek to establish control of key terrain in Iraq while targeting any Sunnis who work for the government. The campaign name, "The Soldiers' Harvest," refers in particular to the intimidation and displacement of the Iraqi Security Forces, especially through the destruction of their homes.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, Sectarian violence, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
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