« Previous |
1 - 20 of 38
|
Next »
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
3. The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged. The security situation and sectarian tension in Diyala province are grave. ISIS has returned to fixed fighting positions within Muqdadiyah, Baqubah, and the Diyala River Valley. Shi'a militias are now active in these areas as well. Increasing instances of population displacement demonstrate the aggregate effect of targeted violence by both groups. It is important to estimate the effects of this displacement and the presence of armed groups within Diyala's major cities in order to understand how deteriorated security conditions in this province will interfere with Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections. Furthermore, violence in Diyala has historically both driven and reflected inter-ethnic and inter-sectarian violence in other mixed areas of Iraq, including Baghdad. Diyala is therefore a significant bellwether for how quickly these types of violence will spread to other provinces.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
4. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Ninewa, Anbar, and Diyala
5. ISIS Governance in Syria
- Author:
- Charles C. Caris and Samuel Reynolds
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State's June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS's political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves first establishing control of terrain through military conquest and then reinforcing this control through governance. This grand strategy proceeds in phases that have been laid out by ISIS itself in its publications, and elaborates a vision that it hopes will attract both fighters and citizens to its nascent state. The declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, however, raises the question: can ISIS govern?
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Syria
6. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham and the "Cleansing" of Deir ez-Zour
- Author:
- Valerie Szybala
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Following the January 2014 uprising by rebel groups in Syria against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), ISIS contracted its footprint in Syria. The group was pushed out, tactically withdrew, or went below the radar in cities and towns across much of Idlib, Aleppo, and Deir ez-Zour. It continued to battle the Kurds in Hasaka, but constituted most of its strength in ar-Raqqa, where it is in firm control of the provincial capital and several other towns. In Syria's eastern province of Deir ez-Zour, ISIS is attempting a resurgence. At the end of March 2014, ISIS began to move forces from the north into place for an offensive back into the heart of rebel territory in Deir ez-Zour province. This resurgence has come in the form of an offensive largely against Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic Front, which are predominant in the province. Local tribal militias have come to play an increasing role as well.
- Topic:
- Sectarianism and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
7. ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- There are indications that ISIS is about to launch into a new offensive in Iraq. ISIS published photos of a military parade through the streets of Mosul on June 24, 2014 showcasing U.S. military equipment, including armored vehicles and towed artillery systems. ISIS reportedly executed another parade in Hawijah on June 26, 2014. These parades may be a demonstration of force to reinforce their control of these urban centers. They may also be a prelude to ISIS troop movements, and it is important to anticipate where ISIS may deploy these forces forward. Meanwhile, ISIS also renewed the use of suicide bombers in the vicinity of Baghdad. An ISIS bomber with a suicide vest (SVEST) attacked the Kadhimiya shrine in northern Baghdad on June 26, 2014, one of the four holy sites in Iraq that Iran and Shi'a militias are most concerned to protect. ISIS also incorporated an SVEST into a complex attack in Mahmudiyah, south of Baghdad, on June 25, 2014 in a zone primarily controlled by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Shi'a militias on the road from Baghdad to Karbala. These attacks are demonstrations that ISIS has uncommitted forces in the Baghdad Belts that may be brought to bear in new offensives. ISIS's offensive has not culminated, and the ISIS campaign for Iraq is not over. Rather, as Ramadan approaches, their main offensive is likely imminent.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
8. Iraq Situation Report: August 4, 2014
- Author:
- Nichole Dicharry
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Forces from the Peshmerga were deployed to the Mosul Dam. The new force is reportedly larger and better equipped than the forces that had clashed with ISIS previously in the area. Also, unconfirmed reports suggest that the Peshmerga have retaken the area of Wana, located near the dam, that fell to ISIS yesterday.
- Topic:
- Armed Struggle, Refugee Issues, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9. Iraq Situation Report: July 30, 2014
- Author:
- Nichole Dicharry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- ISIS published images of Eid celebrations in Mosul showing kids and teenagers playing at a large carnival. The images also showed ISIS members handing out candy to children. This comes after residents from Mosul and ISIS reported that the organization launched a radio station in the city.
- Topic:
- Islam, Governance, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
10. Iraq's Sunnis in Crisis
- Author:
- Stephen Wicken
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The political participation of the Sunni Arab minority in Iraq is critical to the security and stability of the state. At present, they are functionally excluded from government, with those that do participate coopted by the increasingly authoritarian Shi'a Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Without effective political representation, the Sunni in Iraq are left with few alternatives to address their grievances against the Maliki government. The important decisions lie ahead on whether to pursue their goals via political compromise, federalism, or insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Insurgency, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
11. Iraq's Provincial Elections and their National Implications
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On April 20th, Iraq will hold its third provincial elections since 2005. There are 447 open seats nationwide, and competition for them is fierce. Previous elections illustrate that winning provincial seats can reverberate on the national level. A simple majority of seats offers the parties an opportunity to control the senior provincial posts, including the governorship and chairmanship of the councils. Control of these positions provides space for maneuvering to achieve national level objectives.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
12. Iraq's sectarian crisis reignites as Shi'a militias execute civilians and remobilize
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Escalating violence in Iraq crossed a new and very dangerous threshold this week. Al Qaeda in Iraq launched a concentrated wave of car-bomb and other attacks specifically against civilian Shi'a targets in and around Baghdad. Shi'a militias are mobilizing and have begun a round of sectarian killings facilitated by false checkpoints, a technique characteristic of the 2006-2007 period. Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has taken a number of steps to demonstrate that he remains in control of the situation. The expansion of Shi'a militia activity, however, is likely to persuade many Iraqis that he is either not in control or is actively abetting the killings. The re-mobilization of Shi'a militias in Iraq coincides with the formal announcement by Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of his organization's active military participation in the Syrian civil war. Al Qaeda in Iraq's sectarian mass-murder attacks coincide with the announcement by AQI's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, that attacking Hezbollah is that group's primary target henceforth. The stage appears to be set not merely for the collapse of the Iraqi state into the kind of vicious sectarian killing and sectarian cleansing that nearly destroyed it in 2006 and 2007, but also for the expansion of that sectarian warfare throughout both Mesopotamia and the Levant.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
13. AQI's "Soldiers' Harvest" Campaign
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) announced "The Soldiers' Harvest," a new campaign on July 29, 2013, immediately after the Abu Ghraib prison attack. AQI then declared that event the conclusion of the "Breaking the Walls" campaign, which apparently achieved its goals: to stoke sectarian violence by targeting Shi'a communities; and to reconstitute the veteran AQI fighting force by breaking former members out of Iraq's prisons. ISW has assessed that AQI has reconstituted as a professional military force. It is therefore crucial to examine the first 60 days of the new "Soldiers' Harvest" campaign for indications of what AQI means to accomplish this year. Initial indications suggest that AQI will seek to establish control of key terrain in Iraq while targeting any Sunnis who work for the government. The campaign name, "The Soldiers' Harvest," refers in particular to the intimidation and displacement of the Iraqi Security Forces, especially through the destruction of their homes.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, Sectarian violence, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
14. The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq
- Author:
- Sam Wyer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This report examines the political, religious, and military resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) in Iraq since the withdrawal of U.S. Forces, identifying the group's key actors, their present disposition and strategy, and their regional expansion. AAH is an Iranian-backed Shi'a militant group that split from Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) in 2006. Since that time, AAH has conducted thousands of lethal explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces, targeted kidnappings of Westerners, rocket and mortar attacks on the U.S. Embassy, the murder of American soldiers, and the assassination of Iraqi officials.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
15. Relations With Iraq's Kurds: Toward A Working Partnership
- Author:
- Ramzy Mardini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani will be visiting the White House on April 4 and meeting with President Barack Obama. Discussions are likely to involve Kurdish concerns about Iraq's prime minister, but may largely focus on defining what Vice President Joseph Biden termed as a "special relationship" between the U.S. and Kurds during his visit to Arbil last December. Relations between the governments of the United States and Kurdish Region have grown and deepened considerably since the 2003 U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq. The Kurds continued to be staunch proponents of the American presence and ongoing engagement in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
16. Sadr's Balancing Act on Maliki
- Author:
- Stephen Wicken
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have been pushing for his removal from power for much of his second term in office. In recent months, Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani and leaders from the Iraqiyya list have turned to an effort to withdraw confidence in Maliki as prime minister. Iraq's Shi'ite parties, though concerned about Maliki's accumulation of power, have largely abstained from the no-confidence push. Yet the anti-Maliki effort gained new life in mid-April when the powerful Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr intensified his opposition to Maliki and voiced his intention to remove the premier. Sadr's push for a no-confidence vote is an important inflection not only in his own posture towards Maliki, but also in the ongoing political crisis in Iraq. It has prompted a backlash from Iran, which has supported Maliki by seeking to restrain Sadr and to prevent a vote of no confidence. This backgrounder explores the possible calculus and responses of Sadr, Iran, and Maliki as Iraq's governmental stalemate continues to drag on.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
17. Political Update: The Hashemi Verdict the Health of Democracy in Iraq
- Author:
- Stephen Wicken
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On Sunday, Iraqs Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi was sentenced to death by hanging after he and his son-in-law were convicted of organizing the murders of a security official and a lawyer. All told, Hashemi is subject to more than 150 charges of terrorism based upon allegations that he used death squads to target his political opponents. The verdict carries distressing implications for short-term domestic security in Iraq and for diplomatic relations with neighboring Turkey, where Hashemi currently resides and has been based since his trial began. While some observers view the case against Hashemi in purely sectarian terms, the targeting of a Sunni politician in a Shiite-led state, the sentence in fact highlights the pernicious nature of personal rivalries within Iraqi politics. Further, it demonstrates the politicization of the Iraqi judicial system under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has commandeered Iraq's legal institutions in order to consolidate power around his inner circle.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
18. The Islamic State of Iraq and the 'Destroying the Walls' Campaign
- Author:
- Sam Wyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Since the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Iraq in December 2011, the rate and lethality of attacks against civilian targets have steadily risen. Most notably, there have been seven major attack waves, defined here as a series of simultaneous and coordinated attacks that target at least 10 cities within one day. The attacks targeted a combination of security posts, government facilities, and Shi'ite shrines and neighborhoods. The Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), an umbrella organization formed in 2006 for many Sunni insurgency groups including al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), has claimed credit for a large majority of these attacks.3 This summer has seen a further alarming development with the announcement of ISI's "Destroying the Walls" campaign.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
19. Iran's Two Navies
- Author:
- Joshua Himes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has fomented increasing uncertainty in the Middle East, a circumstance in which Iran's regional intentions are of increasing concern. U.S. attempts to isolate the regime are driven by concerns over Iran's nuclear program, the enduring energy chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's export of radical Shi'a militancy through proxy groups across the region, particularly as it affects Iraq, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Islam and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
20. Iraqi Leaders React To The U.S. Withdrawl
- Author:
- Ramzy Mardini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On October 21, 2011, President Barack Obama announced his decision to withdraw all of the remaining 39,000 U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of the year. The complete pullout of U.S. forces satisfies the final phase of the withdrawal timetable established by the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement signed in December 2008 by outgoing President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The decision comes after negotiating efforts failed to reach a new security arrangement with Iraq that would have allowed for a continued U.S. military presence beyond 2011. This document compiles and analyzes many of the reactions of Iraq's leaders to the cessation of negotiations and the withdrawal of U.S. forces.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East