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  • Author: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Power Sharing
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Janne Bjerre Christensen
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report offers a critical examination of Iran's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Two points are made: that Iran's top priority is its own regime's survival and its regional policies are directed by its national security concerns. Secondly, that Iran's engagements in Afghanistan are clearly guided by the presence of the US. Iran's predominant interest is in stabilizing Afghanistan, but as long as Afghanistan is neither safe nor stable, Iran will play a double game and engage with its regional neighbours according to the US–Iran equation. Deterrence, counter-containment and competition are the keywords in these complex relations. The report outlines Iran's reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, its political platform and 'soft power', and the bonds of mutual dependency in terms of water rights, refugees and drug trafficking. It examines Iran's alleged military interventions and the reasons for playing this double game. Lastly, the report discusses Iran's tense relationship with Pakistan with regard to both Afghanistan and the troubled region of Baluchistan.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Power Politics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran
  • Author: Andreas Bøje Forsby
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: What are the implications of China's rapid rise for international order? This report seeks to answer the question from an identity perspective. The key argument is that China is currently undergoing an identity shift towards Sino-centrism, that is, a self-centering tendency to turn narrative attention towards the internally generated, specifically Chinese hallmarks associated with China's civilizational past and cultural heritage.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Culture
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Erik Beukel
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The South China Sea is subject to competing claims of sovereignty by the littoral states. Due to the number of claimants and the complexity of claims, it is called the “mother of all territorial disputes”. China is far the biggest country in the region and claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. This Working Paper elaborates the claims and considers the implications for China's neighborhood relations and the alignments in the Asia-Pacific. The focus is on two faces of power in China's policy, military power and soft power, after China's seizure of Mischief Reef in 1995 that upset its neighbors. China attaches great weight to developing good neighborhood relations and has become an advocate of soft power. However, when it concerns the South China Sea the soft power approach is combined with a continuing use of military power to strengthen its position. It is concluded that the two faces of power present China with new unwieldy challenges.
  • Topic: International Relations, Territorial Disputes
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Somalia
  • Author: Pertti Joenniemi
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The contribution focuses on the unfolding and tensions within the transatlantic relationship and it pursues, in particular, the question how the bonds of association between Europe and America are best comprehended and accounted for. In trying to break some new ground for theorization it argues that the Realist, Liberal and Constructivist accounts have so far come up short in terms of providing up-to-date and broadly acceptable answers. With the dominant theories focusing largely on either external enmity or internal homogeneity, difference internal to the relationship has too easily been conceptualized as destabilizing and seen as representing a rupture. In contrast, the paper assert s that while elements of enmity and homogeneity are important, communities such as the Atlantic one are also critically brought together by their internal differences. It then aims, in view of the difference-based dynamics at play and foundational for the Atlantic communality, to complement an d provide a corrective to the more established theorization of that togetherness.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe
  • Author: Nanna Hvidt, Hans Mouritzen
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This is an outline of Danish foreign policy 2006 provided by the Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. Throughout 2006, developments caused by globalisation posed huge challenges to Denmark. The cartoons crisis and the conflict in Lebanon were the most obvious ones. Confronted with these challenges, Denmark managed to pursue a pro-active foreign policy. Interrelated issues such as energy security, climate change, failed states and weapons of mass destruction became increasingly important. These issues must be addressed with different instruments ranging from diplomacy and multilateral cooperation to trade policy and development cooperation. They illustrate the need for new tools in foreign policy such as public diplomacy, which has gained further importance in the globalised and network-based system of international relations. In addition, the need for horizontal coordination has increased. The Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a major globalisation study in 2006, recommending how Denmark can cope with the challenges of globalisation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Denmark
  • Author: Marianne Hanson
  • Publication Date: 08-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The proliferation of missiles is commonly viewed as one of the most pressing international security issues and has been a key concern in the arms control and proliferation debate s over the past decade. This has occurred at the same time that apprehension about the horizontal spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has risen, and the two issues have become closely related in formulations of potential threats, as well as in existing attempts to regulate the spread of missile technology and parts.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Author: Trine Flockhart
  • Publication Date: 07-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper addresses the question of how Europe (in NATO and the EU) has responded to changes in US announced and operational strategic and military policy and what the principal factors are for explaining European responses to what is perceived as a new form of American hegemony. The discussion is centered around the question of whether the United States has altered it conception of hegemony from one based on consent to one based on 'a preponderance of force', and therefore to have abandoned the crucial process of consensus building through persuasion, which has formed the foundation for the post-war Euro-Atlantic community. If so, then the problem relates more to the fundamental question of maintaining the security community during significant international change and perceived changes in European and American interests than it does to the specific policy content of American foreign policy. European reactions to the perceived change in American foreign policy have been varied in style and rhetoric, but can be di vided into those that have been concerned with safeguarding the achievements of the post-war era by following the United States wherever it may choose to go, or those who see a need for constructing a different relationship with the United States based on a more independent European foreign policy stance.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe
  • Author: Jørgen Staun
  • Publication Date: 07-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The window of opportunity for ensuring Russian democracy is closed or rapidly closing, at least in the intermediate term. Putin's so-called “managed democracy” has turned the Putin-regime into an autocratic system of power where all matters of importance, be it of domestic or foreign policy concern, are decided upon by the members of the small, non-elected elite of powerful bureaucrats surrounding Putin. Elections, parties, court-decisions, major media as well as major business deals – especially in so-called “strategic sectors” of oil, gas, metals and arms – are controlled by the Kremlin, based upon a closed matrix of private, corporate, organisational and national interests. Russia is still a market-based society where property rights are generally accepted – even if they are suspect of turf wars between competing clans and well-connected business groups. But “rule of law” in Russia is at least in high-profile cases a matter of “telephone justice”, that is, rulings are decided outside and not inside the courts.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Russia, Kremlin, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Maryland
  • Author: Christopher S. Browning, Pertti Joenniemi
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The debate about the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has, in essence, been about borders and bordering. Such departures often contribute to rather fixed geopolitical visions of what the EU is about and how it aims at running and organising the broader European space. In contrast, this paper aims at retaining space for viewing the ENP as a developmental and somewhat fluid process. A conceptual framework, based on the outlining of three geopolitical models and a series of different geostrategies employed by the EU in regard to its borders, is hence utilized in order to tell a more dynamic story regarding the developing nature of the ENP and the EU's evolving nature more generally. The complexity traced informs that various geostrategies may be held at the same time at the external border. Moreover, the dominance of one geostrategy may be replaced by another or a different combination of them with regard to the same neighbourhood. It is, more generally, argued that if anything it is precisely this dynamism that should be championed as a valuable resource and as such avoiding the tendency to close off options through the reification of particular visions of the nature of the EU and its borders.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The report provides a brief overview of the religious landscape of Africa with a special focus on the role of religion in the continent's several conflicts. It then proceeds to look at East Africa, where the three religious “families” of traditional religion, Islam and Christianity are all present in large numbers. It does not find any significant correlation between conflict propensity or terrorism and religion, neither in the sense that religious diversity gives rise to any “clash of civilizations” nor in the sense that the predominance of any one religion (e.g. Islam) make a country more prone to conflict or terrorism. It then proceeds to country case studies of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, providing a brief overview of the history of religion and conflict and an assessment of the present situation and the prospects for the future.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Religion
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, East Africa
  • Author: Esbern Friis-Hanse, Henrik Egelyng
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The aim of this study is to follow up the 1st GRA-World Bank workshop on in- novation systems at the community level, “Touching the Hearts of the People”, held in Kuala Lumpur 6-8 February 2006. By resolution, this workshop recommended that a 'review of existing innovation support funds and outline of a global mechanism to foster community level innovations' should be undertaken. The study is also, in part, a response to a recent report from the World Bank's Indigenous Knowledge for Development Program, which calls for the establishment of an “innovation fund to promote successful IK practices” (Gorjestani, N., in WB 2004; 45-53).
  • Topic: International Relations, Agriculture, Development, Economics
  • Author: Luke A. Patey
  • Publication Date: 04-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: What do policy-makers at national governments, international organizations, aid agencies, and non-governmental organizations need to know about Multinational Corporations (MNCs) in war-torn societies? The answer is not simple to provide. However, there is a clear starting point: understand the behaviour of MNCs in the instable and insecure environments in which they are engaged. It is certainly a worthwhile objective considering the immense influence, whether de liberate or not, MNCs have on many civil wars in the developing world.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, War
  • Political Geography: North Africa
  • Author: Anaïs Marin
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Finnish-Russian border is one of the oldest dividing lines on the European continent, but also the most stable and peaceful new border the EU has been sharing with Russia since 1995. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, it became bot h a site and an instrument of increased cross- border interaction and institutional innovation, as illustrated by the establishment of Euregio Karelia in 2000. The paper recalls the historic al background of good-neighbourhood in the Finnish-Russian/Soviet borderlands and calls on constructivist IR theory to elaborate a model for analysing the factors, actors and mechanisms that contributed to the partial integration of this frontier. With Russian regions adjacent to the EU/Finnish border participating in the Northern Dimension, cross-border cooperation contributed to the growing regionalisation of the EU-Russia “strategic partnership”. The pa per addresses the challenging conceptual and political issues posed by this trend towards an “integration without joining” at the EU's external border.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Luke A. Patey
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper reports the results of a survey of almost all certified and in-conversion organic export operations in Uganda in late 2005. It covers products exported, company size and ownership, standards exported to, certification costs, total export values, value-added in Uganda, marketing channels, crop procurement systems, management of organic operations and the main challenges experienced by exporters. Findings include that numbers of certified exporters are growing rapidly. Export values are also growing, but more slowly: They reached USD 6.2 million in 2005. A handful of firms exporting coffee and cotton dominate the sector and this situation is likely to remain. Though the sector is maturing, most recent entrants are small, relatively weak and currently depend on donor support.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan
  • Author: Eva Østergaard-Nielsen
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Diaspora and exile groups may play an important, but sometimes also controversial role in conflicts and political unrest in their countries of origin. This is by no means a new phenomenon. Yet, the growing number of intra-state conflicts, the enhanced possibilities for transnational communication, mobilization and action as well as the upsurge in domestic and international security concerns after 9/11, have heightened attention to the role of diasporas.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Ulla Holm
  • Publication Date: 11-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Terrorism and immigration stemming from the Southern Mediterranean have made it to the top of the European security agenda since 11 September 2001. This paper analyses the European Neighbourhood Policy in the light of European security perceptions. It suggests that the reason why the EU has difficulties in coming up with a coherent policy towards the Southern neighbours are due to fact that the EU and its member states are in an immense internal and external crisis of identity. This crisis has been further aggravated after the French and Dutch 'no' to the European Constitution. The paper makes the argument that the tension between modernity and post-modernity, between the European model of export of universalism and the increasing tendency to close the borders towards the 'others' further aggravates the identity crisis. The paper concludes that these tensions are increasing thus making it still more difficult for the EU to behave as an exporter of European values.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Niels Aadal Rasmussen
  • Publication Date: 10-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report will first describe the present status of Kosovo, and then review relevant considerations of its future status, on the one hand focussing on international law – the de jure status, and on the other hand focussing on sustainability – the de facto stat us. This approach of de jure versus de facto is primarily an analytical tool, chosen because it sheds light on a number of considerations relevant to the negotiation process that will determine the future status of Kosovo. Second, this approach reflects the fact that while the Kosovo Albanian s want maximum self-determination, they realize that they are dependent on international assistance. In contrast, the Serbs believe that international legal considerations of a conservative or conservationist nature are essential, but they admit that they cannot take responsibility for Kosovo's security or economy. To put it briefly, the Albanians want independence de jure but not de facto, while the Serbs want independence de facto but not de jure.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, Maryland
  • Author: Ian Taylor
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The New Partnership for Africa's Development or Nepad has been enthusiastically pushed by a select number of countries in Africa, as well as by the G-8, as a means to stimulate what has been termed the "African Renaissance" (see www.uneca.org/nepad/nepad.pdf). Nepad was launched in Abuja, Nigeria, in October 2001; it arose from the mandate granted to five African heads of state (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa) by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) to work out a development program to spearhead Africa's renewal.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Nigeria