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  • Author: Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean
  • Publication Date: 11-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called 'Girard proposal' (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Jorgen Drud Hansen, Morten Hansen
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: For almost a decade all three Baltic countries have witnessed substantial deficits on the current accounts of the balance of payments. This paper discusses whether this situation should be a matter of concern. Recent literature on the sustainability of balance of payments deficits is reviewed and put into a Baltic context. The main conclusion is that the recurrent large deficits in the Baltic countries pose a risk for the fixed exchange-rate policies until the countries adopt the euro. In the longer term, large deficits will influence the time path of convergence of living standards between the Baltic countries and the EU as a whole.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Economic recovery in the region requires stable currencies and open markets. The best way to establish these two basic conditions quickly is for the countries concerned to immediately link their currencies to the euro via a currency board and join the customs union of the EU. The EU should support this radical approach financially in two ways: a) through compensation for lost tariff revenues (conditional on clean and efficient border controls), and, b) emergency loans to acquire the necessary backing for the currency board. The currency boards should graduate to full euroisation in 2002. The total cost for the EU would be modest: around 2 billion euro p.a. if all countries participate. A market-led approach that pays local hosts to house refugees would ensure that the expenditure on refugees benefits the local economies.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe