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2. Do Cash Transfers Deter Migration?
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Conditional Cash Transfers are increasingly used by development aid agencies to reduce the incentives for migration from low-income countries. The evidence to date suggests that such transfers typically increase the rate of migration when they are conditional on investment, such as investment in education. They do this primarily by facilitating acquisition of human capital and by lowering capital constraints—increasing both migration aspirations and the means to achieve them. But with certain design features, particular transfer programs have reduced the incentive to migrate. Broadly speaking, migration can be deterred by transfer programs that are conditional on presence in the origin country—provided that the condition is strict, targeted, and lengthy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Finance, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Why and How Development Agencies Facilitate Labor Migration
- Author:
- Helen Dempster and Beza Tesfaye
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Development agencies in high-income countries spend a large amount of both official development assistance (ODA) and other forms of financing on migration programming. While most of this spending is aimed at deterring migration, increasingly more is being focused on facilitating migration: to the high-income country itself; within and between low- and middle-income countries; and supporting people on the move and the diaspora. This paper, written by the Center for Global Development and Mercy Corps, aims to explore why and how development agencies in high-income countries facilitate labor, or economic, migration, and how they have been able to justify and expand their mandate in this area. Based on interviews with nine development agencies, we find that development agencies use a range of arguments to justify their work in this area, including supporting economic development and poverty reduction in partner countries while also meeting labor market demands at home or other countries. Yet expanding a mandate in this area requires substantial cross-government coordination and political buy-in, both of which are difficult to achieve. It also requires the ability to be able to use ODA to facilitate labor migration, which is currently up for debate. As development agencies seek to expand their work on labor migration, it will be necessary to define shared goals and start with pilot projects that focus on low-hanging fruit, while maintaining a focus on development and poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Diaspora, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. COVID-19, Long-Term Care, and Migration in Asia
- Author:
- Azusa Sato and Helen Dempster
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Countries throughout Asia are experiencing rapidly aging populations and increasing life expectancy, leading to a large and growing demand for long-term care (LTC) services. Despite the shift to providing care within communities and at home, governments are struggling to provide enough LTC to meet demand. A large part of the constraint is the lack of available workers. While many countries in the region have migration schemes to bring in LTC workers, they are insufficient. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an outsized impact on older people throughout the region, and has exposed deficiencies in the structure of migrant care labor. This report explores the impact of these three dynamics—LTC, migration, and COVID-19—on the current and future LTC workforce in the Asian region. It showcases 11 countries of origin and destination, including the demand for and supply of LTC, how it is financed and resourced, and where and how migrant workers are sourced. It puts forward recommendations for how governments throughout Asia can ethically and sustainably increase LTC worker migration; improve wages, working conditions, and recruitment processes within the sector; and learn lessons from COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia
5. Understanding the Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria
- Author:
- Helen Dempster, Jennifer Dew, Samuel Huckstep, Martina Castigliono, and Cassandra Zimmer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) calls on countries of destination to both expand regular migration pathways and take steps to increase the development impact of these pathways. Migration can have a positive impact on the economic development of migrants themselves, their families, their countries of origin, and their country of destination, if aspects such as integration, remittances, and skill transfers are prioritized. This paper, produced by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the UK office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), outlines lessons for the UK Government to implement if they are to increase the development potential of both their existing and new immigration pathways, particularly in the agriculture, nursing, and green technology sectors
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Immigration, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
6. Facilitating Environmental Migration through Humanitarian and Labour Pathways: Recommendations for the UK Government
- Author:
- Helen Dempster, Amelia Dal Pra, and Mariam Traore Chazalnoel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The impact of climate change, environmental degradation, and disasters on migration and human mobility is receiving more and more attention, by policymakers, academics, and the press alike. While there are gaps in the evidence base, much suggests that the vast majority of people will seek to move internally and regionally, rather than internationally. That being said, there are good reasons as to why high-income countries may want to facilitate so-called international “environmental migration” by adapting their existing legal and policy frameworks. This paper outlines how countries such as the United States of America (US), Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and various European countries have explored, created, or adapted their legal and policy frameworks to explicitly respond to international environmental migration, and the lessons learned therein. It concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) as to how the UK could adapt their own legal and policy frameworks to better respond to international environmental migration.
- Topic:
- Environment, Migration, Governance, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
7. A Pacific Skills Visa: Improving Opportunities for Skilled Migration Throughout the Pacific Region
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The demand for skills exceeds supply, both within the Pacific Islands and the high-income countries of the Pacific Rim. Enhancing skilled migration therefore has the potential to generate large economic gains. The Global Skill Partnership is a migration model that can support such mutually beneficial mobility by moving training into the country of origin. In this paper, we outline its regional application to the Pacific. To assess the potential economic gains from such a Pacific Skills Partnership, we present new data on earnings and the cost of training in the Pacific Islands for three qualifications—accountants, computer science graduates, and chefs—and explore how such training could be financed through loan schemes. Graduates could be provided with internationally accredited qualifications and a new Pacific Skills Visa, facilitating their access to work opportunities abroad, particularly in the regions’ high-income countries. This Pacific Skills Partnership could bring large economic benefits to countries of origin, destination, and the migrants themselves.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Migrant Workers
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
8. Measuring the Spatial Misallocation of Labor: The Returns to India-Gulf Guest Work in a Natural Experiment
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- ‘Guest workers’ earn higher wages overseas on temporary low-skill employment visas. This wage gap can be used to measure gaps in the productivity of workers due to where they are, not who they are. This paper estimates the effects of guest work on Indian applicants to a construction job in the United Arab Emirates, where an economic crisis allocated guest work opportunities as-good-as-randomly among several thousand families. Guest work raised the return to poor families' labor by a factor of four, with little evidence of systematic fraud.
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Migrant Workers, and Guest Workers
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
9. Maximizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partnerships
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world is experiencing significant demographic shifts. By 2100, Europe’s working-age population will have declined, and sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will have greatly increased. Many of these new labor market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. Germany is one country piloting and implementing projects that can help alleviate such demographic pressures and maximize the potential mutual benefits of legal labor migration. We discuss these projects, and highlight differences in their potential impact on development in the country of origin. We recommend that European governments build on, adapt, and pilot-test one of Germany’s approaches, also known as the Global Skill Partnership model: training potential migrants in their countries of origin before migration, along with non-migrants. Ideally, governments should pursue such pilot-tests with those countries that exhibit rising future migration pressure to Europe, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Neither the conclusion nor the results of this analysis reflect the opinion of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) or Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Germany, and Sub-Saharan Africa
10. Losing Our Minds? New Research Directions on Skilled Migration and Development
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper critiques the last decade of research on the effects of high-skill emigration from developing countries, and proposes six new directions for fruitful research. Design/methodology/approach: The study singles out a core assumption underlying much of the recent literature, calling it the Lump of Learning model of human capital and development, and describes five ways that research has come to challenge that assumption. It assesses the usefulness of the Lump of Learning model in the face of accumulating evidence. The axioms of the Lump of Learning model have shaped research priorities in this literature, but many of those axioms do not have a clear empirical basis. Future research proceeding from established facts would set different priorities, and would devote more attention to measuring the effects of migration on skilled-migrant households, rigorously estimating human capital externalities, gathering microdata beyond censuses, and carefully considering optimal policy—among others. The recent literature has pursued a series of extensions to the Lump of Learning model: This study urges instead discarding that model, pointing toward a new paradigm for research on skilled migration and development.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugee Issues, and Developing World
11. Migration as a Strategy for Household Finance: A Research Agenda on Remittances, Payments, and Development
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Timothy N. Ogden
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- It is time to fundamentally reframe the research agenda on remittances, payments, and development. We describe many of the research questions that now dominate the literature and why they lead us to uninformative answers. We propose reasons why these questions dominate, the most important of which is that researchers tend to view remittances as states do (as windfall income) rather than as families do (as returns on investment). Migration is, among other things, a strategy for financial management in poor households: location is an asset, migration an investment. This shift of perspective leads to much more fruitful research questions that have been relatively neglected. We suggest 12 such questions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Immigration
12. Does Development Reduce Migration?
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy. A lengthy literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a "mobility transition", emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income, and only thereafter falls. This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro- and micro-level data. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Social Stratification, Social Movement, and Developing World
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, and Mexico
13. Migration as a Tool for Disaster Recovery: A Case Study on U.S. Policy Options for Post-Earthquake Haiti
- Author:
- Royce Bernstein Murray and Sarah Petrin Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- After a natural catastrophe in a developing country, international migration can play a critical role in recovery. But the United States has no systematic means to leverage the power and cost-effectiveness of international migration in its post-disaster assistance portfolios. Victims of natural disasters do not qualify as refugees under U.S. or international law, and migration policy toward those fleeing disasters is set in a way that is haphazard and tightly constrained. This paper comprehensively explores the legal means by which this could change, allowing the government more flexibility to take advantage of migration policy as one inexpensive tool among many tools for post-disaster assistance. It explores both the potential for administrative actions under current law and the potential for small changes to current law. For concreteness, it focuses on the case of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, but its policy lessons apply to future disasters that are sadly certain to arrive. The paper neither discusses nor recommends "opening the gates" to all disaster victims, just as current U.S. refugee law does not open the gates to all victims of persecution, but rather seeks to identify those most in need of protection and provide a legal channel for entry and integration into American life.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States
14. Economics and Emigration: Trillion-dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Large numbers of people born in poor countries would like to leave those countries, but barriers prevent their emigration. Those barriers, according to economists' best estimates to date, cost the world economy much more than all remaining barriers to the international movement of goods and capital combined. Yet economists spend much more time studying the movement of goods and capital, and when they study migration at all, they focus on the effects of immigration on nonmigrants in destination countries. I ask why this is the case and sketch a four-point research agenda on the effects of emigration. Barriers to emigration deserve a research priority that is commensurate with their likely colossal economic effects.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Poverty, and Immigration
15. The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific
- Author:
- John Gibson and David McKenzie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Political Economy, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
16. Skill Flow: A Fundamental Reconsideration of Skilled-Worker Mobility and Development
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Large numbers of doctors, engineers, and other skilled workers from developing countries choose to move to other countries. Do their choices threaten development? The answer appears so obvious that their movement is most commonly known by the pejorative term “brain drain.” This paper reconsiders the question, starting from the most mainstream, explicit definitions of “development.” Under these definitions, it is only possible to advance development by regulating skilled workers' choices if that regulation greatly expands the substantive freedoms of others to meet their basic needs and live the lives they wish. Much existing evidence and some new evidence suggests that regulating skilled-worker mobility itself does little to address the underlying causes of skilled migrants' choices, generally brings few benefits to others, and often brings diverse unintended harm. The paper concludes with examples of effective ways that developing countries can build a skill base for development without regulating human movement. The mental shift required to take these policies seriously would be aided by dropping the sententious term “brain drain” in favor of the neutral, accurate, and concise term “skill flow.”
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Labor Issues, and Brain Drain
17. Skilled Emigration and Skill Creation: A quasi-experiment
- Author:
- Satish Chand and Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Does the emigration of highly-skilled workers deplete local human capital? The answer is not obvious if migration prospects induce human capital formation. We analyze a unique natural quasi-experiment in the Republic of the Fiji Islands, where political shocks have provoked one of the largest recorded exoduses of skilled workers from a developing country. Mass emigration began unexpectedly and has occurred only in a well-defined subset of the population, creating a treatment group that foresaw likely emigration and two different quasi-control groups that did not. We use rich census and administrative micro data to address a range of concerns about experimental validity. This allows plausible causal attribution of post-shock changes in human capital accumulation to changes in emigration patterns. We show that high rates of emigration by tertiary-educated Fiji Islanders not only raised investment in tertiary education in Fiji; they moreover raised the stock of tertiary educated people in Fiji—net of departures.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Education, Markets, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
18. Income Per Natural: Measuring Development for People rather than Places - Working Paper 143
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Lant Pritchett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- It is easy to learn the average income of a resident of El Salvador or Albania. But there is no systematic source of information on the average income of a Salvadoran or Albanian. We create a first estimate a new statistic: income per natural—the mean annual income of persons born in a given country, regardless of where that person now resides. If income per capita has any interpretation as a welfare measure, exclusive focus on the nationally resident population can lead to substantial errors of the income of the natural population for countries where emigration is an important path to greater welfare. The estimates differ substantially from traditional measures of GDP or GNI per resident, and not just for a handful of tiny countries. Almost 43 million people live in a group of countries whose income per natural collectively is 50% higher than GDP per resident. For 1.1 billion people the difference exceeds 10%. We also show that poverty estimates are very different for national residents and naturals; for example, 26 percent of Haitian naturals who are not poor by the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States. These estimates are simply descriptive statistics and do not depend on any assumptions about how much of observed income differences across naturals is selection and how much is a pure location effect. Our conservative, if rough, estimate is that three quarters of this difference represents the effect of international migration on income per natural. This means that departing one's country of birth is today one of the most important sources of poverty reduction for a large portion of the developing world. If economic development is defined as rising human well being, then a residence-neutral measure of well-being emphasizes that crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development, it is economic development.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, Migration, Poverty, and Population
- Political Geography:
- United States and Albania
19. Do Visas Kill? Health Effects of African Health Professional Emigration
- Author:
- Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The emigration of highly skilled workers can in theory lower social welfare in the migrant-sending country. If such workers produce a good whose consumption conveys a positive externality—such as nurses and doctors in a very poor country—the loss can be greater, and welfare can even decline globally. Policies to impede emigration thus have the potential to raise sending-country and global welfare. This study uses a new database of health worker emigration from Africa to test whether exogenous decreases in emigration raise the number of domestic health professionals, increase the mass availability of basic primary care, or improve a range of public health outcomes. It identifies the effect through two separate natural quasi-experiments arising from the colonial division of the African continent. These produce exogenous changes in emigration comparable to those that would result from different immigration policies in principal receiving countries. The results suggest that Africa's generally low staffing levels and poor public health conditions are the result of factors entirely unrelated to international movements of health professionals. A simple model proposes that such results would be explained by segmentation of health workforce labor markets in the sending countries. The results further suggest that emigration has caused a greater production of health workers in Africa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Health, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa
20. New data on African health professionals abroad
- Author:
- Gunilla Petterson and Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The migration of doctors and nurses from Africa to developed countries has raised fears of an African medical brain drain. But empirical research on the causes and effects of the phenomenon has been hampered by a lack of systematic data on the extent of African health workers' international movements. We use destination-country census data to estimate the number of African-born doctors and professional nurses working abroad in a developed country circa 2000, and compare this to the stocks of these workers in each country of origin. Approximately 65,000 African-born physicians and 70,000 African-born professional nurses were working overseas in a developed country in the year 2000. This represents about one fifth of African-born physicians in the world, and about one tenth of African-born professional nurses. The fraction of health professionals abroad varies enormously across African countries, from 1% to over 70% according to the occupation and country. These numbers are the first standardized, systematic, occupation-specific measure of skilled professionals working in developed countries and born in a large number of developing countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa