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Begin New Search Topic Economics Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publication Year within 25 Years

41. Brazil in the Global Economy: Measuring the Gains From Trade

Author:
Sandra Polaski, Dirk Willenbockel, Eduardo Zepeda, Scott McDonald, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Brazil's economic growth rate has been positive for the past eight years, after two decades of setbacks and extreme volatility. The country has once again been growing—for a sustained period—at rates that exceed its population growth, with average gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita averaging 1.63 percent from 2000 to 2007. This exceeds average per capita GDP growth of 0.83 percent from 1980 to 1989 and 0.28 percent from 1990 to 1999, although it still falls well short of the 5.92 percent per capita growth rate from 1970 to 1979.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

42. Recovery: The Global Financial Crisis and Middle-Income Countries

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
No country has proved immune to the devastating effects of the current global financial crisis. But the middle-income countries of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia, which previously had achieved significant progress—economically and socially—have shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable. The crisis has highlighted important lessons for these countries, which inhabit a twilight zone between the developed and developing worlds?and those that aspire to join their ranks—as they rebuild.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, and Latin America

43. The Impact of the Doha Round on Kenya

Author:
Eduardo Zepeda, Mohamed Chemingui, Hedi Bchir, Christopher Onyango, and Bernadette Wanjala
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the first decade of the twenty- first century comes to an end, Kenya's economy is being confronted with a number of challenges that call for carefully crafted, well- informed policies. After fifteen years of stagnation—when the country witnessed zero increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and investment at levels below 20 percent of GDP—it has risen to become one of Africa's fast growing economies (see Arbache and Page 2008). Between 2004 and 2007, Kenya's economy showed signs of revitalization, and the average annual growth rate climbed above 5 percent, allowing Kenyans to finally enjoy an increase in GDP per capita. However, the political turmoil of 2008 slowed growth, and the current global financial and economic crisis has made it difficult to return to high growth rates. Thus, Kenya now faces shrinking export markets, rising protectionist measures worldwide, and meager financial flows.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

44. Market Versus State: Postcrisis Economics in Latin America

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global financial crisis has reignited the fierce debate about the roles of the market and the state in modern economies. Latin America, in particular, revisits this debate every time it suffers an external shock. While some blame unregulated markets, others fault states' inability to design institutions or implement policies capable of neutralizing the negative impact of these shocks on output, employment, and social welfare.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

45. International Labor Migration in a Globalizing Economy

Author:
Robert Lucas
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although migration has expanded less rapidly than either trade or direct investment, migration has become increasingly contentious. The immediate labor market impacts on host countries appear small and dynamic gains from induced technical progress remain undocumented. Circular migration from low-income countries offers a key safety valve where the home state fails to provide employment and security, but there are dangers from over-dependence on the migration–remittance nexus. The least-developed countries benefit only through south–south migration and are probably harmed by a rapidly expanding brain drain. Impact on sending countries: Remittances from migrants back to their home countries can promote rapid growth in developing regions, and the withdrawal of laborers can induce higher wages or less underemployment for those left behind. However, remittance flows can decline quickly and unexpectedly, as currently observed in Mexico. Migration of highly skilled workers can become problematic through "brain-drain" of talented healthcare workers and educators in developing regions.   Relationship between trade and migration: Subsidies in many industrialized countries often protect the sectors in which migrants seek work. There is little or no coherence between the trade and migration policies adopted by higher-income countries. Better internal coordination is necessary to reconcile the two agendas.   Policy implications: Many countries prefer a policy of temporary migration, in which migrants contribute to the local economy but depart before they become dependents. But such programs should be better managed, as reports of abuse and exploitation by recruiters and intermediaries become more common. Effective contracting schemes will require better oversight to improve worker conditions, increased transparency, and bilateral cooperation between the host and recipient nations. Lucas concludes:   "The net potential gains to migrants entering the industrialized countries are extremely high. Yet the impacts of any additional migrations on the incomes of those left at home and of natives in the host countries are more ambiguous. While migrants are clearly the big winners, others may even lose." Robert Lucas is a professor of Economics at Boston University. His research has included work on internal and international migration, employment and human resources, income distribution and inter-generational inequality, international trade and industry, the environment, and sharecropping.  He has served as chief technical adviser to the Malaysia Human Resource Development Program, and director of undergraduate studies and the M.A. program in Economics at Boston University. He is also a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center for International Studies. His latest book, International Migration and Economic Development: Lessons from Low-Income Countries, was published by Edward Elgar Press in 2005.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Migration

46. When Money Talks: Arab Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Global Public Policy Discourse

Author:
Sven Behrendt
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In recent years, Arab and other emerging economies' sovereign wealth funds (SWFs)—government-controlled pools of assets designed to engage primarily in foreign investments—have grown into a relevant class of investors in global financial markets. Their past and projected growth has triggered an intense debate about their impact on the structure and architecture of the global financial system.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Arabia

47. China's Economic Fluctuations: Implications for its Rural Economy

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

48. India's Trade Policy Choices

Author:
Sherman Robinson, Sandra Polaski, Scott McDonald, Manoj Panda, and A. Ganesh-Kumar
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India's economic growth has accelerated in recent years, and its share of world trade has expanded. These are welcome developments for the country and, given India's large share of the world's population, for the global economy. Yet, despite these recent positive trends, India faces daunting challenges and policy decisions if it is to maintain high economic growth rates, employ its burgeoning population, and raise incomes across the full range of households, skill levels, sectors, and regions. India remains the largest reservoir of poverty in the world. Its recent high growth has been driven mainly by its modern services sector, which accounts for only a small proportion of overall employment and household incomes. Its agricultural sector is in a deep crisis, whether measured by slow growth rates, persistent rural poverty, or widespread farmer suicides.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
India

49. The Challenge of Economic Reform in the Arab World: Toward More Productive Economies

Author:
Sufyan Alissa
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The issue of economic reform in the Arab world is surrounded by many key questions. How do we define meaningful economic reform and what does it entail? To what extent has such economic reform advanced in the region? What is needed to accelerate the process? Are ruling elites motivated to undertake real economic reform and are they capable of doing so? Are state institutions able to implement economic reform and handle its consequences? Is it possible to have economic transformation without political reform? Furthermore, in individual countries, what can we say about the timing of reform-has it been planned out and phased in or pushed through quickly in response to crises? Who have been the winners and losers? What has been the interplay between economic and political reform-have they proceeded independently or can we detect a direct connection? What has been the role of external rents-whether oil revenues, remittances, or bilateral aid-in the speed or slowness, the depth or shallowness, of the process?
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia

50. China's Economic Prospects 2006-2020

Author:
Sandra Polaski, Jianwu He, and Li Shantong
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economic growth during the past twenty-five years has been remarkable, averaging more than 9 percent a year. While there have been earlier episodes of comparable growth rates in countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is no precedent for such rapid growth in a country the size of China, whose population of 1.3 billion is thirteen times that of Japan when that nation began its rapid growth. The impact on the rest of the world of economic dynamism on this scale is already being felt. If China continues its rapid growth in the coming decades, it will take the global economy into uncharted terrain.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea