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Begin New Search Topic Energy Policy Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

1. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:
Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:
Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:
Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?

Author:
Martin L. Weitzman
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is difficult to resolve the global warming free-rider externality problem by negotiating quantity targets. By contrast, negotiating a single binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from which are domestically retained) counters self interest by incentivizing agents to internalize the externality. The model of this paper indicates an exact sense in which each agent's extra cost from a higher emissions price is counterbalanced by that agent's extra benefit from inducing all other agents to simultaneously lower their emissions. Some implications are discussed.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

5. The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Author:
Amy Myers Jaffe and Meghan L. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Some of the most dramatic energy developments of recent years have been in the realm of natural gas. Huge quantities of unconventional US shale gas are now commercially viable, changing the strategic picture for the United States by making it self-sufficient in natural gas for the foreseeable future. This development alone has reverberated around the globe, causing shifts in patterns of trade and leading other countries in Europe and Asia to explore their own shale gas potential. Such developments are putting pressure on longstanding arrangements, such as oil-linked gas contracts and the separate nature of North American, European, and Asian gas markets, and may lead to strategic shifts, such as the weakening of Russia's dominance in the European gas market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

6. Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior

Author:
Erich Muehlegger, Shanjun Li, and Joshua Linn
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Gasoline taxes can be employed to correct externalities associated with automobile use, to reduce dependency on foreign oil, and to raise government revenue. Our understanding of the optimal gasoline tax and the efficacy of existing taxes is largely based on empirical analysis of consumer responses to gasoline price changes. In this paper, we directly examine how gasoline taxes affect consumer behavior as distinct from tax-exclusive gasoline prices. Our analysis shows that a 5-cent tax increase reduces gasoline consumption by 1.3 percent in the short-run, much larger than that from a 5-cent increase in the tax-exclusive gasoline price. This difference suggests that traditional analysis could significantly underestimate policy impacts of tax changes. We further investigate the differential effect from gasoline taxes and tax-exclusive gasoline prices on both the intensive and extensive margins of gasoline consumption. We discuss implications of our findings for the estimation of the implicit discount rate for vehicle purchases and for the fiscal benefits of raising taxes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Infrastructure

7. What are the Welfare Costs of Shoreline Loss? Housing Market Evidence from a Discontinuity Matching Design

Author:
Matthew Ranson
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper uses housing market data to estimate the welfare costs of shoreline loss along coastal beaches in Florida. I develop a forward-looking structural model of a housing market in which a time-variant housing characteristic (beach width) follows a Markov process. I use this model to provide an exact welfare interpretation for the coefficients from three empirical research designs: (1) a repeat-sales panel regression of housing prices on beach width; (2) a differences-in-differences approach based on sharp changes in beach width caused by beach nourishment projects; and (3) a new “discontinuity matching” research design that exploits capitalized housing price differentials created by predictable changes in future beach width. Using a unique panel dataset on housing sales, beach width survey measurements, and the timing of 204 beach nourishment projects along 300 miles of Florida's coastline, I then use each of these research designs to estimate homeowners' willingness to pay for an extra foot of sand. In contrast to previous work, I find that changes in beach width have little impact on housing prices, except possibly at very eroded beaches. The results imply that the welfare costs of sea level rise may be low up to a threshold, and then increase sharply.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Florida

8. Proposed Liability Framework for Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide

Author:
Wendy B. Jacobs
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Harvard Law School's Emmett Environmental Law and Policy Clinic* supports immediate large-scale carbon capture and sequestration ("CCS") demonstration projects as part of a larger national and global effort to address climate change. Large-scale CCS projects (those that sequester at least 1.5 million tons of captured carbon dioxide ("CO2") annually) must be demonstrated soon to confirm CCS as a viable strategy to combat climate change and to show the commitment of the United States to achieving meaningful reductions in domestic CO2 emissions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States

9. The Development of a Gulf Carbon Platform: Mapping out the Gulf Cooperation Council Carbon Exchange

Author:
Justin Dargin
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have some of the highest greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita in the world. This paper argues that in spite of the extremely high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates, GCC members will benefit economically, environmentally and geopolitically by constructing a harmonized pan-GCC carbon trading platform that will allow them to make cost-efficient decisions about greenhouse gas abatement. A thorough analysis is undertaken to determine which GHG abatement mechanism would be the best suited for the GCC, with maximum cost and environmental benefits. Based on the unique characteristics of the GCC members, a pan-GCC cap-and-trade framework is suggested. Optimally, policy makers would institute it in a phased, voluntary introduction, to be gradually replaced by a mandatory scheme. If the GCC countries implement such a system, they would be able to rationalize their energy usage for domestic power production, and conserve their oil and gas production for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

10. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Jeannie Sowers
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The impacts of human-induced climate change are often considered a future prospect, yet in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), indications of a changing climate are clearly evident. Most of the predicted outcomes associated with international climate models are already occurring in the region, compounding existing problems of water scarcity, water pollution, desertification, salinization, and sea-level rise. Since most of the MENA region is arid and hyperarid, small changes in water availability and arable land have significant consequences for human security. Thus, “if mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water” (Clausen and Berg 2010). Particularly through effects on the variability and quality of scarce and degraded water resources, human-induced climate change exacerbates already existing problems affecting urban and rural development, human health, and economic productivity in MENA.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

11. The Dynamics of Climate Agreements

Author:
Bård Harstad
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
I provide a novel dynamic model with private provision of public bads and investments in technologies. The analysis is tractable and the MPE unique. By adding incomplete contracts, I derive implications of and for international climate treaties. While the non-cooperative equilibrium is bad, short-term agreements are worse due to hold-up problems. A long-term agreement should be more ambitious if it is relatively short-lasting and the technological externality large. The length itself should increase in this externality. With renegotiation, the outcome is first best. The technological externalities are related to trade agreements, making them strategic substitutes to climate treaties.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements

12. On China's Commercial Reprocessing Policy

Author:
Hui Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
China is currently operating eleven nuclear power reactors with installed capacity of 9 GWe, and it plans to increase its total nuclear capacity to 40 GWe by 2020. China is seeking to reprocess the civilian spent fuel, and to recycle the plutonium in MOX fuel for its light water reactors (LWRs) and fast breeder reactors (FBRs). A pilot reprocessing plant with a capacity of 50-100 THM/a is ready to operate now. A larger commercial reprocessing plant and a MOX fabrication plant are expected to be in commission around the year 2020. Also, the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR), capable of producing 25 MWe of power, will be operating soon. Furthermore, larger commercial FBRs are planned to be commissioned around 2030-2035. This paper will first discuss the status of China's nuclear power reactors, breeders, and civilian reprocessing programs. In addition, this paper will examine whether the breeders and civilian reprocessing programs make sense for China, taking into account costs, proliferation risks, energy security tradeoffs, health and environmental risks, and spent fuel management issues.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
China

13. Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture

Author:
Mohammed Al-Juaied and Adam Whitmore
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
There is a growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a means of reducing car- bon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions. However, there are substantial uncertainties about the costs of CCS. Costs for pre-combustion capture with compression (i.e. excluding costs of transport and storage and any revenue from EOR associated with storage) are examined here for First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) plant and for more mature technologies (Nth-of-a-Kind plant (NOAK)).
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment

14. Addressing the Risks of Climate Change: The Politics of the Policy Options

Author:
Elaine Kamarck
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It often takes a long time for a policy issue to get to the point where all the complex factors required for change through the American political process come together. Take health care. President Harry Truman advocated universal health care for all Americans in the late 1940s, universal health care was provided for senior citizens and the poor in 1965, and now we are well into the 21st century and still arguing about whether and how to guarantee health care coverage for all Americans.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and America

15. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Author:
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons

16. Giving Green to Get Green: Incentives and Consumer Adoption of Hybrid Vehicle Technology

Author:
Kelly Sims Gallagher and Erich Muehlegger
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Federal, state and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the value of the tax incentive. Conditional on value, we find that sales tax waivers are associated a seven-fold greater increase in hybrid sales than income tax credits. In addition, we estimate the extent to which consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV) in the United States from 2000-2006 can be attributed to government incentives, changing gasoline prices, or consumer preferences for environmental quality or energy security. After controlling for model specific state and time trends, we find that rising gasoline prices are associated with higher hybrid sales, although the effect operates entirely through sales of the hybrid models with the highest fuel economy. In total, we find that tax incentives, rising gasoline prices and social preferences are associated with 6, 27 and 36 percent of high economy hybrid sales from 2000-2006.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

17. The Case Against a Near-Term Decision to Reprocess Spent Nuclear Fuel in the United States

Author:
Matthew Bunn
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
MADAM CHAIRWOMAN AND MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE: It is an honor to be here today to discuss a subject that is very important to the future of nuclear energy and efforts to stem the spread of nuclear weapons – reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States

18. The National Gasification Strategy: Gasification of Coal and Biomass as a Domestic Supply Option

Author:
William G. Rosenberg, Dwight C. Alpern, and Michael R. Walker
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Natural gas provides 24 percent of the energy used by U.S. homes and businesses and is a vital feedstock for chemical, fertilizer, and other industries. Since 1999, natural gas prices in the U.S. have more than doubled, adding about $70 billion annually to U.S. natural gas customers and causing widespread adverse economic impacts, including high home heating bills, escalating commercial energy costs (affecting hospitals, schools, office buildings, and shopping centers ), substantial job losses in chemicals, fertilizer, and manufacturing industries, and financial distress in the electric power sector.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
North America

19. Demand Policy Instruments for R Procurement, Technical Standards and The Case of Indian Vaccines

Author:
Smita Srinivas
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Vaccines represent a nearly $8 billion global industry today , which is projected to grow to $10 billion in 2010 (PhRMA, 2001). In 2001, worldwide spending on R for “biologicals,” of which vaccines are the largest segment, was $1.1 billion (about 4% of total private pharmaceutical R) (PhRMA, 2001). Although vaccines com p rise only 2% of the global pharmaceutical market, it is indispensable for public health immunization the world over. Yet, at the same time, the number of private vaccine suppliers in advanced industrialised countries is shrinking (in the US alone, there were over twenty vaccine suppliers until the 1970s and now approximately five exist); firm s in developing countries must pick up some of this slack, especially for vaccines that are especially important for diseases prevalent in developing countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology

20. Russia's Role in the Shifting World Oil Market

Author:
Lynne Kiesling and Joseph Becker
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent changes in Russia's domestic oil industry have had dramatic effects on world oil markets, including Russia's emergence as the number two exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. These effects are occurring even though Russia is not close to fully exploiting its reserves. Russia's oil industry has large growth prospects, and this potential will allow Moscow to take a greater market share away from OPEC in the future. A number of factors will facilitate this trend. Russia's target oil price is lower than OPEC's, which gives it an incentive to continue exporting beyond OPEC's wishes. Also, Russia's oil industry is more privatized than the oil industries in Persian Gulf states, which allows it to be more entrepreneurial in attracting investment and joint ventures.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Moscow, and Kabardino