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42. A Pillar's Progress: How Development's History Shapes U.S. Options in the Present
- Author:
- David Ekbladh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Development is back. U.S. President Barack Obama has put it high on his strategic agenda. It is at the center of the State Department's much ballyhooed “Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review.” These aspirations come with real backing—Obama's fiscal year 2010 budget promises to double foreign aid to nearly $50 billion. Perhaps more importantly for supporters of development, across official Washington accord is growing that development must play a greater role not just in conflict zones but in general U.S. global strategy. It is not only the typical aid constituencies calling for greater attention. Even Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has urged a continuation of the emphasis on development that characterized policies of his last boss, former President George W. Bush. Almost assuredly, a pattern of bigger budgets, needed policy focus, and reform to the disjointed aid mechanisms within the U.S. government will emerge. Complementing (although not always supporting) this U.S. activity internationally is a collection of groups ranging from nongovernmental organizations (NGO)s to the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank. Overall, the place of aid U.S. foreign policy has not been so prominent or secure since the end of the Cold War. Development is once again, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterizes it, “a core pillar of American power.”
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, United Nations, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
43. The Development of a Gulf Carbon Platform: Mapping out the Gulf Cooperation Council Carbon Exchange
- Author:
- Justin Dargin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have some of the highest greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita in the world. This paper argues that in spite of the extremely high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates, GCC members will benefit economically, environmentally and geopolitically by constructing a harmonized pan-GCC carbon trading platform that will allow them to make cost-efficient decisions about greenhouse gas abatement. A thorough analysis is undertaken to determine which GHG abatement mechanism would be the best suited for the GCC, with maximum cost and environmental benefits. Based on the unique characteristics of the GCC members, a pan-GCC cap-and-trade framework is suggested. Optimally, policy makers would institute it in a phased, voluntary introduction, to be gradually replaced by a mandatory scheme. If the GCC countries implement such a system, they would be able to rationalize their energy usage for domestic power production, and conserve their oil and gas production for future generations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
44. Al Qaeda's Religious Justification of Nuclear Terrorism
- Author:
- Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- When legendary jihadist Abdullah Azzam was assassinated under mysterious circumstances in November 1989, suspects in his murder included Osama bin Laden and Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. After the Soviets were expelled from Afghanistan, Azzam sought to shift jihad to his homeland, Palestine. Zawahiri sought to focus the jihad on Egypt and the other secular Muslim states, in hopes of restoring the caliphate, the rule of Islamic clerics, which had ended after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1924. After Islamic rule had been re-established in the Islamic world, Zawahiri wrote, “then history would make a new turn, God willing, in the opposite direction against the empire of the United States and the world's Jewish government.”
- Topic:
- Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Palestine, Egypt, and Assam
45. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Jeannie Sowers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The impacts of human-induced climate change are often considered a future prospect, yet in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), indications of a changing climate are clearly evident. Most of the predicted outcomes associated with international climate models are already occurring in the region, compounding existing problems of water scarcity, water pollution, desertification, salinization, and sea-level rise. Since most of the MENA region is arid and hyperarid, small changes in water availability and arable land have significant consequences for human security. Thus, “if mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water” (Clausen and Berg 2010). Particularly through effects on the variability and quality of scarce and degraded water resources, human-induced climate change exacerbates already existing problems affecting urban and rural development, human health, and economic productivity in MENA.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and North Africa
46. Iranian Youth in Times of Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Young people in Iran have emerged as important players on the country's political scene but remain marginal on its economic scene. They were a vital part of President Khatami's political base and contributed to his landslide victories at the polls, in 1997 and 2001. In June 2009 they again played a key role, this time in challenging President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial reelection, which led to massive anti-government protests in the nation's largest cities. A year later the political crisis appears to have subsided, but the economic crisis that has engulfed the country since early 2008 has deepened, and with it the crisis facing Iran's youth. Youth unemployment is at record high levels and, for the majority of youth, marriage and family formation are increasingly becoming challenges to overcome rather than celebrations of reaching adulthood.
- Topic:
- Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Asia
47. Controlling Behavior – Not Arms: Moving Forward On An International Convention For Cyberspace
- Author:
- Ramtin Amin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The rapidly increasing occurrence of cyber attacks and the growing use of the cyber domain for politically motivated purposes during both times of war and peace by both state and non-state actors has precipitated a dire need of an international convention to control behavior in cyberspace. While arms control conventions exist for the nuclear, chemical, and biological modes of warfare occurring at land, sea, space, and air, no such treaty is in place for the latest domain, whose tactical importance is now of vital importance for the global communication infrastructure and domestic military capabilities. In this paper, I will first extrapolate upon the current legal landscape pertinent to cyber arms and crime, and explore the limitations of current international laws that have been most often cited during past instances of cyber attacks. I will further explore a number of arms control drafts that have been proposed over the years, and highlight some of the lessons learned, with the aim of providing a constructive analysis to aid international lawmakers and affiliated institutions who are less familiar with the meta-physical cyber domain, and the unique challenges it presents. Finally, I will analyze the following five essential elements of a future global cyber convention: terms and definitions regarding cyber arms; peaceful use of cyber technology; signatory obligations regarding private actors; attribution; and mechanisms for deterrence. In exploring these fundamental themes, I will demonstrate why and how a future convention for cyberspace should focus on controlling behavior, rather than dwelling on a counterproductive goal of arms control.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
48. The Armageddon Test
- Author:
- Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In 1946, Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the Manhattan project, was asked in a closed Senate hearing room “whether three or four men couldn't smuggle units of an [atomic] bomb into New York and blow up the whole city.” Oppenheimer responded, “Of course it could be done, and people could destroy New York.” When a startled senator then followed by asking, “What instrument would you use to detect an atomic bomb hidden somewhere in a city?” Oppenheimer quipped, “A screwdriver [to open each and every crate or suitcase].” There was no defense against nuclear terrorism–and he felt there never would be.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and War
49. U.S. Aid to Pakistan—U.S. Taxpayers Have Funded Pakistani Corruption
- Author:
- Azeem Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- There is widespread agreement that aid to Pakistan has not been spent effectively over the past decade. There is less agreement over how to fix it. This paper contributes to the debate in two ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
50. The Dynamics of Climate Agreements
- Author:
- Bård Harstad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- I provide a novel dynamic model with private provision of public bads and investments in technologies. The analysis is tractable and the MPE unique. By adding incomplete contracts, I derive implications of and for international climate treaties. While the non-cooperative equilibrium is bad, short-term agreements are worse due to hold-up problems. A long-term agreement should be more ambitious if it is relatively short-lasting and the technological externality large. The length itself should increase in this externality. With renegotiation, the outcome is first best. The technological externalities are related to trade agreements, making them strategic substitutes to climate treaties.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements