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2. Threat Perceptions and Drivers of Change in Nuclear Security Around the World: Results of a Survey
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn and Eben Harrell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Leaders at the 2010 nuclear security summit agreed on the goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear material in four years. This goal implied that many countries would change their nuclear security policies. But the factors that drive changes in nuclear security policies, and that constrain those changes, are not well understood. Matthew Bunn and Eben Harrell conducted a survey of selected nuclear security experts in countries with nuclear weapons, highly enriched uranium (HEU), or separated plutonium, to explore this issue. The survey included: perceptions of which threats are credible; approaches to nuclear security based on a design basis threat (DBT); changes in nuclear security policy in the last 15 years; factors causing and constraining changes in nuclear security policy; and policy on how much information to release about nuclear security. This paper describes the survey, its results, and implications for next steps to strengthen global nuclear security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
3. South Korea's Counterpiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden
- Author:
- Terence Roehrig
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In March 2009, the South Korean National Assembly approved the first foreign deployment of South Korea's naval forces to join the U.S.-led Combined Task Force (CTF-151). The purpose of CTF-151 is to conduct antipiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off Somalia's east coast by the Horn of Africa. South Korea joined the navies of twentyfour other countries that participate in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) through one of three combined task forces, CTF-150, CTF-151, and CTF-152, to help ensure maritime security in this region. The CMF is an international effort to conduct maritime security operations in the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
- Topic:
- Security, Maritime Commerce, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Israel, and South Korea
4. Safe, Secure and Effective Nuclear Operations in the Nuclear Zero Era
- Author:
- Ronald G. Allen, Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Nuclear weapons have provided the foundation for international diplomacy and strategic stability for over six decades now. Their often misunderstood mission and strategic value rests in the ability to prevent, not win, major wars. This ability to deter is produced through understood capability and believable will, and ultimately rests on nuclear credibility. However, the central dilemma surrounding these weapons has always been that they provide America with both security and her only existential threat. For this reason many have tried, and thus far failed, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. The latest abolition movement, championed by former high-ranking government officials and prominent business leaders, gained momentum when President Obama declared his nuclear agenda during a 2009 speech in Prague. But his vision for a world free of nuclear weapons also came with a promise to ensure America's nuclear credibility well into the future. Often labeled a no-fail mission, producing deterrence is demanding, disciplined work with inherent risk. The addition of abolition rhetoric adds unnecessary risk in the form of mission relevance and the erosion of expertise and much needed resources for sustainment and modernization. Without significant change in the geopolitical landscape, nuclear weapons will remain a relevant portion of America's long-term national security strategy. Therefore, the burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent force are paramount to ensure credibility for America and her allies. Bottom line: nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence are still relevant today and for the foreseeable future. Therefore, to maintian international strategic stability we must embrace the necessity of nuclear deterrence, develop strategic policy that supports deterrence as an essential element and adequately resource the enterprise.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
5. Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis in the Context of Strategic Stability
- Author:
- Andrei A. Kokoshin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In this discussion paper Andrei Kokoshin, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and sixth secretary of the Russian Security Council, offers a concise discussion of the essence of the most dangerous nuclear crisis in the history of humankind.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia
6. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary of Terms
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- At a time of hot debate over possible military action against Iran's nuclear program, the need for a clear understanding of the issues and the controversial science and technology behind them has never been more acute. Toward that end, scholars from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs have copublished an interactive online glossary of terms used in the discussion about Iran. The report was prepared by proliferation expert Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen, former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Covering the jargon and history behind IAEA inspections, centrifuge enrichment, basic nuclear physics, and early nuclear weapons development in Pakistan and the United States, the glossary provides an indispensable guide to an increasingly complex problem.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, and Middle East
7. Muslims in America: A Profile
- Author:
- Karam Dana
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The perception of Muslims living in the United States has deteriorated dramatically since the terrorist attacks on September 11th, 2001. U.S.-Muslims, a group that had already faced discrimination prior to the attacks, became even more visible to the public. Non-Muslim Americans began questioning American Muslim loyalties to the United States as well as their commitment to being “good” citizens. Such doubt extended to the political arena as well, prompting intrusive inquiries into Muslim-affiliated civic and political organizations and their members. Even non-Muslims with Muslim affiliations or Muslim- sounding names or appearances have been subject to public scrutiny. For example, despite identifying as a Christian, President Barack Obama's religious affiliation has been continually doubted by some due to his Kenyan Muslim heritage and his middle name, Hussein. Though a decade has passed since the events of September 11th, the role of American Muslims, and whether they can at all be trusted, remains a popular concern and a topic of household conversation.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
8. The Armageddon Test
- Author:
- Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In 1946, Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the Manhattan project, was asked in a closed Senate hearing room “whether three or four men couldn't smuggle units of an [atomic] bomb into New York and blow up the whole city.” Oppenheimer responded, “Of course it could be done, and people could destroy New York.” When a startled senator then followed by asking, “What instrument would you use to detect an atomic bomb hidden somewhere in a city?” Oppenheimer quipped, “A screwdriver [to open each and every crate or suitcase].” There was no defense against nuclear terrorism–and he felt there never would be.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and War
9. On China's Commercial Reprocessing Policy
- Author:
- Hui Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- China is currently operating eleven nuclear power reactors with installed capacity of 9 GWe, and it plans to increase its total nuclear capacity to 40 GWe by 2020. China is seeking to reprocess the civilian spent fuel, and to recycle the plutonium in MOX fuel for its light water reactors (LWRs) and fast breeder reactors (FBRs). A pilot reprocessing plant with a capacity of 50-100 THM/a is ready to operate now. A larger commercial reprocessing plant and a MOX fabrication plant are expected to be in commission around the year 2020. Also, the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR), capable of producing 25 MWe of power, will be operating soon. Furthermore, larger commercial FBRs are planned to be commissioned around 2030-2035. This paper will first discuss the status of China's nuclear power reactors, breeders, and civilian reprocessing programs. In addition, this paper will examine whether the breeders and civilian reprocessing programs make sense for China, taking into account costs, proliferation risks, energy security tradeoffs, health and environmental risks, and spent fuel management issues.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- China
10. Confrontation or Collaboration? Congress and the Intelligence Community
- Author:
- Eric Rosenbach and Aki J. Peritz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Intelligence is a critical tool lawmakers often use to assess issues essential to U.S. national policy. Understanding the complexities, mechanics, benefits and limitations of intelligence and the Intelligence Community (IC) will greatly enhance the ability of lawmakers to arrive at well-grounded decisions vital to our nation's foreign and domestic security.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- United States
11. Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq
- Author:
- Justin Dargin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This article examines the legal and political impediments to the Kurdish Regional Government's (KRG) exploration and production contracts, which the central government in Baghdad has refused to recognize. The newly established Iraqi national constitution significantly opened as many petroleum-control questions as it resolved. Negotiated in 2005, the constitution not only separated branches of government, but established Federalism as its lodestar. When faced with unresolved issues over regional and national control over petroleum resources, however, International Oil Companies (IOCs) function in an ambiguous legal environment that fails to clearly distinguish between federal and regional powers.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia
12. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security
- Author:
- Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons
13. Making New International Norms: The Small Arms Case
- Author:
- Denise Garcia
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on a significant puzzle in international security today: why did small arms control become prominent on the international agenda during the 1990s? And why did the international community attempt to regulate these weapons? This paper illustrates the emergence of small arms and light weapons on the international agenda and draws some parallels with the land mines case. Moreover, I outline how norm building processes is a fruitful research guide to examine these pressing questions of land mines and small arms proliferation management. The creation of international norms and the setting of widely agreed upon standards to control small arms and light weapons is central to the multilateral coordination of international responses to tackle the problems associated with their proliferation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
14. Analyzing the Issue of Curbing the Unrestricted Availability and Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons: Some Implications for the Study of International Relations and for Education in Defense and Security
- Author:
- Denise Garcia
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses one of the key issues in the international security agenda today: the control of the proliferation and availability of small arms and light weapons. It shows how the topic has become one of concern to the international community. It also indicates who the main actors involved in this process are. In addition, this paper examines the reasons why there is so much availability of small arms in the world today. These reasons are connected to changes in the international arms trade patterns after the Cold War. It seeks to demonstrate some implications of the rise of the issue of small arms into the international agenda, for the study of international relations and for education in defense and security. I am especially interested in the literature on norms and ideas that helps to explain the advancement of normative change. The present paper utilizes transparency as a case study with two aims. First, I want to illustrate how the rise of the norm of transparency sheds light on the study of norms in international relations. Second, I will contend that the rise of the small arms issue has also contributed to fostering the norm of transparency.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
15. The Russian Debate on the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Vehicles
- Author:
- Vladimir Dvorkin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the first paragraphs of their declaration at the Evian Summit in early June 2003, the G8 leaders stated, .We recognize that proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery poses a growing danger to us all. Together with the spread of international terrorism, it is the pre-eminent threat to international security.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
16. Federalization of Foreign Relations: Discussing Alternatives for the Georgian-Abkhaz Conflict
- Author:
- Bruno Coppieters, Tamara Kovziridze, and Uwe Leonardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since its declaration of independence on April 1991, Georgia's sovereignty has been challenged by civil war and by secession attempts on the part of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Negotiations on the reintegration of these two entities through federalization have failed. The Russian Federation, the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe were involved in a series of negotiations on a federal division of powers between Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, but these negotiations did not achieve practical results. The positions between the Georgian government and the Abkhaz authorities concerning the status of Abkhazia have been moving even further apart.
- Topic:
- Security and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
17. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Progress Update
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the past year, there has been notable progress in ensuring that stockpiles of the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons around the world are secured from theft and transfer to terrorists. But there remains a dangerous gap between the pace of progress and the scope and urgency of the threat – a gap that, if left unfilled, could lead to unparalleled catastrophe. We must close the gap – to take action now that, within a few years, could reduce the danger that terrorists might turn the heart of a U.S. city into a new Hiroshima to a fraction of what it is today. This paper is intended to outline the continuing threat; summarize the progress made in addressing it in the past year, and the gaps that still remain; and recommend steps to close the gap between threat and response. The terrorists who have sworn to kill Americans wherever they can be found have undertaken an intensive effort to get a nuclear bomb, or the materials and expertise needed to make one. We need to be racing as fast as we can to stop them before they succeed. This paper is about steps to win that race.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Hiroshima
18. Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach
- Author:
- Colin Polsky, Dagmar Schröter, and Marybeth Long Martello
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- There is a growing call among researchers interested in studying global change and associated effects on society and ecosystems to examine vulnerabilities as well as impacts. Such a move would require a renewed emphasis on the factors that constrain and enable coupled human - environment systems to adapt to stress. Although a picture is emerging of what general factors global change vulnerability assessments should address, it is less clear what methods are needed for this endeavor. This paper presents results from a workshop held in October 2002 to explore the issue of methods and models for vulnerability assessments. The results include an objective for global change vulnerability assessments, a set of five information criteria that vulnerability assessments should satisfy for achieving this objective, and a set of eight steps designed to satisfy those criteria. The proposed objective for global change vulnerability assessments is to inform the decision - making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. The five criteria for achieving the objective are that vulnerability assessments should: engage a flexible knowledge base, be place - based, consider multiple and interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity between and within populations, and be prospective as well as historical. The eight steps for satisfying the criteria are: define the study area in tandem with stakeholders, get to know places over time, hypothesize who is vulnerable to what, develop a causal model of vulnerability, find indicators for the components of vulnerability, weight and combine the indicators, project future vulnerability, and communicate vulnerability creatively. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as self - evident and part of their well - established disciplinary practices. However, most readers should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps presented here constitute a novel methodological framework.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Human Welfare, and Treaties and Agreements
19. A Changing of the Guard: The U.S. National Guard and Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Jay Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the September 11 attacks, the federal government has undertaken a fundamental review of the U.S. defense priorities. The terrorist strikes against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon exposed the extraordinary vulnerability of the U.S. homeland that some had warned against over the last several years. There is now widespread agreement that the threat of terrorist attack against the United States is likely to be a long-term reality. Given this situation, the Bush administration's decision to reassess its policy on homeland security is wholly appropriate.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
20. Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror
- Author:
- Simon Saradzhyan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack against Russia is growing, as radical separatists in troubled Chechnya increasingly become more desperate, and security at many of Russia's civil nuclear facilities remains insufficient. They have already demonstrated their capability and willingness to inflict massive indiscriminate casualties by organizing an apartment bombing in the southern Russian city of Buinaksk. They have acquired radioactive materials, threatened to attack Russia's nuclear facilities, plotted to hijack a nuclear submarine, and have attempted to put pressure on the Russian leadership by planting a container with radioactive materials in Moscow and threatening to detonate it. These incidents occurred between 1994 and 1996, during Russia's first military campaign in Chechnya at a time when separatists were so overwhelmed and outmanned they believed that acts of terrorism employing nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) materials—if not weapons of mass destruction (WMD)—could be the only way to force Russian troops to retreat from Chechnya.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
21. Nuclear Conflicts of the Twenty-First Century
- Author:
- A.A. Kokoshin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The author proceeds from the definition, that nuclear conflict is a situation involving one or more possessors of nuclear weapons, and in the course of which escalation reaches a level at which the practical possibility of using nuclear weapons begins to be considered. The higher phase of nuclear conflict means the use of nuclear weapons at various scales—from single nuclear explosions to the mass use of nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
22. Lessons of the “War” on Drugs for the “War” on Terrorism
- Author:
- Jonathan P. Caulkins, Mark A.R. Kleiman, and Peter Reuter
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Efforts to prevent repetitions of the September 11 incidents have begun to be called “the war on terror.” This suggests analogies to the “war on drugs,” and there have been attempts to use these comparisons to draw conclusions about the appropriate shape and likely success of the anti- terrorism campaigns. Making new problems seem familiar by seeking out analogies is both a natural psychological response and a rational analytical strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
23. Russia's Role in the Shifting World Oil Market
- Author:
- Lynne Kiesling and Joseph Becker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Recent changes in Russia's domestic oil industry have had dramatic effects on world oil markets, including Russia's emergence as the number two exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. These effects are occurring even though Russia is not close to fully exploiting its reserves. Russia's oil industry has large growth prospects, and this potential will allow Moscow to take a greater market share away from OPEC in the future. A number of factors will facilitate this trend. Russia's target oil price is lower than OPEC's, which gives it an incentive to continue exporting beyond OPEC's wishes. Also, Russia's oil industry is more privatized than the oil industries in Persian Gulf states, which allows it to be more entrepreneurial in attracting investment and joint ventures.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Moscow, and Kabardino
24. Russia Watch No.7, March 2002
- Author:
- Duncan DeVille, Danielle Lussier, Melissa Carr, David Rekhviashvili, Annaliis Abrego, and John Grennan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Russian support for U.S. efforts in the war on terrorism has surprised many Western observers. But this was not the only recent surprise from Moscow — Western advocates for the rule of law in Russia also had much to celebrate in the closing months of 2001. Under strong prodding by President Vladimir Putin, the Duma passed several impressive pieces of reform legislation, including an entirely new Criminal Procedure Code, a potentially revolutionary land reform law, new shareholder protections in amendments to the Joint Stock Company Law, and the first post-Soviet Labor Code.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
25. Beyond the ABM Treaty: A Plea For a Limited National Missile Defense System
- Author:
- Tom Sauer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With approval rates higher than ever thanks to the war against terrorism, President George W. Bush finally did in December 2001 what he had threatened to do on different occasions but what many others thought - or hoped - was only bluff: withdrawing unilaterally from the 1972 Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Regardless of the rationale or emotions behind or against this decision, it ended a period of uncertainty. Although in principle the Bush administration can still change its mind until June 2002 when the six months withdrawal period expires, most observers believe that this will not happen. Indeed, there are already plans on the table to start building a new test site at Fort Greely in Alaska in the Summer of 2002 that from 2004 onwards could be used as a base for a small ground-based mid-course National Missile Defense (NMD) launch site if needed.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Alaska
26. Shusha's Pivotal Role in a Nagorno-Karabagh Settlement
- Author:
- Elchin Amirbayov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Peace in Nagorno - Karabagh will demand painful compromises from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. A “winner's peace” — one that only reflects the military gains of one side — will not foster long - term resolution of the conflict. The Shusha region of Nagorno - Karabagh has special symbolic meaning for Azerbaijanis. A key element in obtaining Azerbaijani acceptance of a peace agreement is the return of the Shusha region to Azerbaijani control and the guaranteed right of internally displaced Azerbaijani persons to return to the Shusha region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
27. Transcript of speech at Kennedy School: 'Searching for Security in a Changing World'
- Author:
- Eduard Shevardnadze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As soon as I first learned that I would come to speak at Harvard, I began to prepare my remarks. Therefore, I had practically completed them when the unspeakable events happened. That unprecedented surge of evil may one day come to be regarded as an historical watershed, an infamous hallmark.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Georgia
28. Judicial Reform and Human Rights in Russia
- Author:
- Danielle Lussier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Sergei Pashin discussed Russia's judicial system, past and current debates on judicial reform, and his thoughts on the likelihood of the Putin government implementing a significant judicial reform. Dr. Pashin began by telling about the history and results of the 1991 - 1995 judicial reform in Russia. As the main achievements of this period Pashin identified ratification of the European Convention on Human Rights and acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the European Court located in Strasbourg, adoption of a number of bills expanding and strengthening citizen s' civil and criminal procedure rights and of the law on jury trials, abolition of capital punishment for non - violent crimes, adoption of a law on judges' status in which real guarantees of independence of judges were declared, establishment of the first Constitutional Court in Russian history, establishment of a system of arbitration courts, etc.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
29. U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports: Mini-Case and Paradigm
- Author:
- Graham T. Allison and Emily Van Buskirk
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The date is July 1, 2001. Real world history and trends occurred as they did through March 19, 2001 — except for the hypothetical departures specified in the case below. Events after March 19 that are not specified in this case are assumed to be straight - line projections of events as they stand on March 19. Assume, for example, that sporadic violence continues in the Middle East at the current level of intensity; Britain and the U.S. are nearing the end of their review of UN sanctions against Iraq, and will soon make recommendations on refocusing the sanctions to make them “smarter”; as expected, Mohammad Khatami was reelected as President of Iran on June 8 with a mandate for continued reform; the price of oil is $25/barrel; events in Chechnya and Ukraine, and negotiations over Nagorno - Karabagh will continue as before.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, United States, Iraq, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, and United Nations
30. Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? (Summary and Transcript Publication, with Photographs)
- Author:
- Brenda Shaffer, Carey Cavanaugh, Hamlet Isaxanli, and Ronald Suny
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- From April 3 - 7, 2001 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe convened negotiations in Key West, Florida, aimed at achieving a peace settlement for the Nagorno - Karabagh conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell opened this set of talks between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian, each of whom met separately with Secretary Powell in Florida and, subsequently, in Washington D.C. with President Bush. The United States, France and Russia were the mediators at the negotiations, as co - chairs of the OSCE “Minsk Group” (which includes 13 countries) established in 1992 as part of an effort to end the conflict. The chief negotiator on the U.S. side at Key West was Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, who is the State Department's Special Negotiator for the conflict on a constant basis. The negotiations were held in proximity format, meaning that the facilitators held separate talks with each of the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Florida
31. Russian Democracy: Is There a Future?
- Author:
- Michael McFaul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- On behalf of the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, I would like to welcome you to our seminar. Michael McFaul is going to lead us in a discussion entitled, "Russian Democracy: Is there a future?" This is a topic that SDI has been following through our publications and programs for over ten years now. SDI's current thoughts on this topic are outlined in our publication, Russia Watch. The lead article, "Buttressing Russia's Democratic Freedoms" outlines some of our thoughts on this topic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia