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2101. Africa Increases Control over Natural Resources

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
From October this year, new rules on the sale of cocoa beans entered into force, agreed between Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana—the crop’s two largest producers in the world—to ensure a profit for farmers. The agreement is an example of a departure from the raw material export model that is unfavourable to African producer countries. This change should increase the stability of African states. These processes will require a revision of the European business approach to Africa and the EU’s trade policy towards the continent.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Resources, European Union, Business, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire

2102. Water Shortages in Occupied Crimea

Author:
Daniel Szeligowski
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Water shortages in occupied Crimea are of a long-term character since its local resources are insufficient to meet its needs. In the short term, the Russian authorities will attempt to resolve the water deficit on an ad hoc basis while stepping up pressure on Ukraine to unblock the North Crimean Canal. A forced takeover of the canal by the Russian military should be considered a last resort, given that the cost of such an operation for Russia would significantly exceed the possible benefit.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Water, and Occupation
Political Geography:
Russia and Crimea

2103. Ukraine 2020-2021: Inflated Expectations, Unexpected Challenges (Assessments

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, M. Bielawski, V. Zamyatin, K. Markevych, O. Melnyk, M. Mishchenko, V. Omelchenko, M. Pashkov, O. Pyshchulina, O. Rozumniy, V. Sidenko, A. Stetskiv, P. Stetsyuk, M. Sunhurovskiy, S. Chekunova, L. Shangina, and V. Yurchyshyn
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Ukraine has entered 2020 with some positive and often inflated public expectations, largely associated with a radical change of government. However, from the first to the last day of 2020, the country was affected by new, unpredictable challenges and by its own problems, both old and new.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Law, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2104. President Zelensky's First Year: Achievements and Miscalculations (Summary of the Analytical Report)

Author:
Razumkov Center
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Razumkov Centre’s Project “Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Year of Presidency: Achievements and Miscalculations” was implemented with the support of Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine. It focuses on: National Security and Defence; Foreign Policy; Domestic and Legal Policy; Economic Policy, Situation in Economy; Energy Sector; Social Policy; Public Policy; The Assessment of the First Year of V.Zelenskyy’s Presidential Term by Citizens and Experts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, National Security, Social Policy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

2105. 2020 Review of the United Nations Peacebuilding Architecture African Regional Consultation Report

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The 2020 United Nations (UN) peacebuilding review takes stock of the progress made over the first 15 years of the UN’s Peacebuilding Architecture (PBA). ACCORD consulted a number of stakeholders in Africa on their experiences to date with the PBA between March and May 2020, culminating in a virtual webinar consultation that took place on 10 June 2020 in partnership with the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) and the African Union (AU) Commission. The 2020 UN peacebuilding review has a special interest on the impact of peacebuilding efforts at the field level. In this regard, ACCORD decided that the theme for its African Regional Consultation will be “Sustaining Peace in Africa: Local Capacities for Peace”. Inputs received for the African Consultation show that despite policy commitments to local ownership and investments in local and national capacities for peace, the funding, coordination, planning, and the state-centric decision-making structures still favour UN agencies, international Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and national authorities. Local peacebuilders are not sufficiently involved in the identification of needs, the framing of the issues or the design of the programmes and results frameworks. The majority of those who were consulted for this report had little knowledge of the Sustaining Peace concept. Those who are more familiar with the concept feel that the degree to which it emphasizes local and national ownership, early preventative action, and system-wide cooperation, collaboration, and coherence is exemplary. However, they felt its implementation strategies or mechanisms were weak.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

2106. Women and Youth Exchanging Lessons for Peace and Security

Author:
Aya Chebbi, Helen Kezie-Nwoha, Verlaine-Dian Soobroydoo, Natasha Mutuwa, Pravina Makan-Lakha, and Sibusisiwe Nkos
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
2020 is a momentous year for gender equality. It marks the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Platform for Action, the 20th anniversary of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325), and the conclusion to the African Women’s Decade. These celebrations offer an important opportunity to take stock of what has been accomplished over the last two decades and assess the challenges that continue to persist. The outbreak of corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures put in place to curb its spread have quelled a host of opportunities for reflections, assessments and setting new strategic priorities for the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda. Consequently, concerns have emerged over lost momentum that jeopardizes the gains that have been made over the past two decades in securing women’s empowerment in the field of peace and security. Therefore, it is imperative that conversations among policymakers, practitioners and academics who support women’s leadership and strengthening efforts to empower and protect traditionally marginalized and vulnerable groups continue. At the same time, the youth of Africa have also been fighting to be recognized as agents of peace in their communities. 2020 marks the 5th anniversary of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2250 (UNSCR 2250) on Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) which formally affirmed the important role youth play in maintaining and promoting peace and security. This has clearly been shown during the COVID-19 pandemic as youth are mobilizing in creative ways to support their communities combat the spread of the coronavirus. Yet, their voices continue to be on the margins of decision-making processes.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Women, Youth, Peace, COVID-19, and WPS
Political Geography:
Africa

2107. Deepening Progressive Partnerships: TAYLE & PF Young Leaders

Author:
Ariel Stenek and Rob York
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Since beginning our partnership two years ago, the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation (TAEF) and Pacific Forum have provided meaningful exchanges under our organizations’ youth engagement programs, the Taiwan-Asian Young Leaders Engagement (TAYLE) and the Young Leaders Program respectively. Seeing the potential behind youth-led initiatives and the value of diverse perspectives on contemporary international issues, the TAEF and Pacific Forum hope to broaden the exposure of young leaders from the Asia-Pacific to pressing matters that affect their respective communities and the region at large. Under the TAEF’s TAYLE program, select Pacific Forum Young Leaders and peers from Southeast and South Asia are invited to Taiwan to participate in the annual Yushan Forum: Asian Dialogue for Innovation and Progress, which takes place in October and coincides with the country’s National Day celebrations. The theme, “Deepening Progressive Partnerships in Asia,” focused on the progressive partnerships and achievements in the areas of economic and technological exchange, talent cultivation, sustainable development, civil society development, think tank collaboration, cultural exchange and youth leadership within the region.
Topic:
International Relations and Youth
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Pacific Ocean

2108. Far, Far More Than Meets the Eye: Extended Deterrence in Complex Crises in Northeast Asia

Author:
Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), brought 41 officials and experts from the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), along with eight Pacific Forum Young Leaders, all attending in their private capacity, to Maui, Hawaii, Sept. 5-6, 2019 to explore the three countries’ thinking about extended deterrence and prospects for and obstacles to strengthened trilateral security cooperation. A two-move tabletop exercise (TTX) was focused on concerted and coordinated efforts by China and North Korea to revise the status quo in Northeast Asia. Key findings include: Despite political difficulties, there was little difference among participants regarding assessments of the situation and dynamics in Northeast Asia. They were generally aligned and this was evident in responses to the TTX: they sought to prevent opportunism, provide off-ramps for adversaries, and didn’t rush to connect the incidents. Official statements notwithstanding, there is rising anxiety in Seoul and Tokyo for a variety of reasons. In the ROK, some concerns focus on the role of nuclear solutions to national security problems. In Japan, the issue is often the US-China balance of power. Tokyo and Seoul remain committed to their alliances with the US, however. Participants acknowledged that conventional strength among allies and the ability to coordinate more seamlessly strengthened extended deterrence.
Topic:
Deterrence
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Northeast Asia, Korean Peninsula, and Pacific Ocean

2109. On the Value of Nuclear Dialogue with China

Author:
David Santoro and Robert Gromoll
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This material is based on research sponsored by DTRA and managed by the US Air Force Academy (USAFA), and Pacific Forum International under agreement number FA7000-19-2- 0012. The US Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation thereon. The opinions, findings, views, conclusions or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the USAFA, DTRA, or the US Government. This paper was written by Dr. David Santoro, Vice President and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Pacific Forum, and Dr. Robert Gromoll, former Director of the Office of Regional Affairs at the US Department of State’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation; Dr. Gromoll is now retired. Both Drs. Santoro and Gromoll participated in numerous dialogue rounds, and Dr. Santoro was a co-organizer. The paper is based primarily on the contents of the dialogue’s written reports, several of which were authored or co-authored by Dr. Santoro. By and large, the paper draws directly from these reports and reviews how the topics addressed in the dialogue were approached and discussed by the US and Chinese sides over time. (A list of these reports is included at the end of the paper; some have been published, others have not.) The paper is also based on the authors’ broader experience in participating in the Track-1.5 dialogue; the conversations they have had with US and Chinese participants on these issues over the years, both during the dialogue and on the margins; and their own personal research. This paper represents the views of the authors and not those of Pacific Forum or the US State Department.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States and China

2110. Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Author:
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Scott W. Harold
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
North Korea’s ballistic missile program has long been a concern for the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign researchers have increasingly leveraged advanced open source intelligence technology and cooperated across countries to track the North’s developments over the last 25 years. But one country has been left out – China. Are there open source Chinese analyses of DPRK ballistic missiles, do they align with U.S. assessments, and is there anything for other researchers to gain from reading these analyses? This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. We find that Chinese analysts have paid growing attention to the North’s missile capabilities but are still not as attentive as Western observers, from whom they draw most of their information and analytic insights. Chinese analyses broadly mirror Western experts’ conclusions about the state of North Korea’s missile capabilities, most notably that North Korea has a functional, if not fully perfected, intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) that can reach the United States with a nuclear weapon. However, there is little original Chinese analysis that would enhance foreign experts’ preexisting understanding of DPRK missiles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Weapons, and Research
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

2111. 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Troy Stangarone and Juni Kim
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
KEI’s 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula focuses on U.S. views on relations with South Korea, U.S. awareness of South Korean brands and cultural products, and views on North Korea and was conducted by YouGov. The results reveal that while Americans have a favorable view of South Korea and about half are supportive of maintaining U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula, few Americans watched or listened to Korean cultural products in the last year. Americans also view North Korea as one of the three critical challenges for the United States, but fewer than 1-in-3 approve of the administration’s handling of North Korea.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Politics, Culture, Public Opinion, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

2112. The Accountability System for the Protection of Civilians in UN Peacekeeping

Author:
Namie Di Razza
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, UN peacekeeping operations have striven to protect civilians from physical violence. The protection of civilians (POC) is now based on a clear normative and policy framework, and its practical implementation relies on a number of innovative tools, tailored and multidimensional approaches, and the more proactive posture of peacekeepers. On a number of occasions, however, UN missions have failed to prevent or respond to threats despite being aware of the risk, receiving adequate warning of an attack, or being in the proximity when abuses were committed. Numerous reports and investigations into these incidents have highlighted shortcomings in performance and called for more accountability. Despite institutional ambitions, however, there is still limited accountability for the actors involved in protecting civilians. To help address this challenge, IPI undertook a project to map how existing accountability mechanisms in the UN could be applied to peacekeeping missions with POC mandates. Through a combination of desk research and key informant interviews, IPI developed a set of tools to help guide the UN and its member states in building a robust, multi-actor, multilayer “system of accountability for POC.”
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Accountability, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Africa, Darfur, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

2113. Looking West. The Rise of Asia in the Middle East

Author:
Valeria Talbot, Ugo Tramballi, Paola Magri, Zhao Jianming, Kabir Taneja, Adel Abdel Ghafar, Jeongmin Seo, Naser Al-Tamimi, Nael Shama, Sara Bazoobandi, and Anshel Pfeffer
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
As the world’s economic and political centre of gravity moves increasingly towards East and South Asia, we can expect a number of countries in these regions to devote more attention to the Middle East. The relations between East and South Asia and the Middle East have significantly expanded as a result of the global rise of Asian economic powers, particularly China, India, Japan and South Korea. Not only oil but also trade, investment, infrastructure, and tourism is the name of the business with the MENA region. Beyond energy and economic interests, questions arise about the potential geopolitical dimension of these evolving ties. What are the strategic implications of the projection of Asian countries in an unstable, fragmented and volatile region? How do they interact with each other and with other international players? Last but not least, will the Covid-19 pandemic be a game changer in (re)shaping relations in the future?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, Business, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, India, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Egypt, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations

2114. Four Years of Trump. The US and the World

Author:
Mario Del Pero, Paola Magri, Gary C. Jacobson, Michele Alacevich, Gabriella Sanchez, Scott L. Greer, Mario Del Pero, William F. Wechsler, and Erik Jones
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Unprecedented and unpredictable: this is how US President Donald Trump's administration has repeatedly been labelled. Beyond the frequent tweets and bombastic rhetoric, however, lie a more conventional four years, as the United States navigated an ever-evolving international reality, compounded by a global pandemic and one of the deepest economic recessions in over a century. This Report analyses the continuity and changes that occurred during Trump’s presidency. Domestically, it investigates the growing political polarization, the country's pre-pandemic economic performance, Trump's approach towards regular and irregular migration, and the US’ response to a healthcare emergency. At the international level, this volume looks at how the US stance has changed vis-à-vis China, the Middle East, and Europe. Which long-term trends has President Trump had to ride through? What was his trademark, and what might be his lasting legacy?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Immigration, European Union, Inequality, Economic Growth, Engagement, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Polarization, and Disengagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2115. Africa’s Thorny Horn

Author:
Giovanni Carbone, Michele D'Alessandro, Zemalak A. Ayele, Giovanni Putoto, David Styan, Michael Woldemariam, Afyare A. Elmi, Abdi M. Hersi, Aleksi Ylönen, Alexander Meckelburg, and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area’s core states - Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too. How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies?
Topic:
Hegemony, Geopolitics, State Building, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Horn of Africa

2116. AI in the Age of Cyber-Disorder

Author:
Fabio Rugge, John R Allen, Giampiero Massolo, Thomas A. Campbell, Samuele Dominioni, Caitlin Chin, Mishaela Robison, John Villasenor, Darrell M. West, and Paola Benanti
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The rise of Artificial Intelligence applications is accelerating the pace and magnitude of the political, securitarian, and ethical challenges we are now struggling to manage in cyberspace and beyond. So far, the relationship between Artificial Intelligence and cyberspace has been investigated mostly in terms of the effects that AI could have on the digital domain, and thus on our societies. What has been explored less is the opposite relationship, namely, how the cyberspace geopolitics can affect AI. Yet, AI applications have so far suffered from growing unrest, disorder, and lack of normative solutions in cyberspace. As such, from algorithm biases, to surveillance and offensive applications, AI could accelerate multiple growing threats and challenges in and through cyberspace. This report by ISPI and The Brookings Institution is an effort to shed light on this less studied, but extremely relevant, relationship.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Authoritarianism, Cybersecurity, Inequality, Surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2117. Navigating the Pandemic: The challenge of stability and prosperity in the Mediterranean

Author:
Vali Nasr and Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The MED Report 2020, Navigating the Pandemic, provides analyses, policy recommendations and a vast array of data and infographics to stimulate discussion and inspire innovative ideas during the 6th edition of Rome MED Dialogues. Following MED's four traditional thematic sections – shared security; shared prosperity; migration; civil society, culture and media – the Report focuses on a selection of topics that are crucial to the region, highlighting both the challenges and the dynamics taking shape in an area that has been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The aim of this publication is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the prospects and policy options for the Middle East and North Africa, where COVID-19 has impacted on a context already marred by socio-economic vulnerabilities and instability.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Culture, Geopolitics, Media, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

2118. Conflicts, Pandemics and Peacebuilding: New Perspectives on Security Sector Reform in the MENA Region

Author:
Andrea Cellino, Annalisa Perteghella, Thomas Guerber, Paola Magri, Ranj Alaaldin, Jerome Drevon, Jalel Harchaoui, Irene Constantini, Eleanore Ardemagni, and Annalisa Perteghella
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic is not only a health challenge. In the MENA region, against the backdrop of protracted conflicts, instability, and an overall deterioration in socio-economic conditions, the coronavirus crisis adds another layer of vulnerability and has already had long-lasting repercussions on human security across the region. Moreover, as hybrid actors take on an important role as security providers amid the pandemic in a context of limited or absent oversight, risks associated to a lack of accountability, ethno-religious discrimination, human rights abuses and gender-based violence grow. While classical approaches to security provision tend to portray non-state actors and the State as inherently at odds, the complexity of a rapidly evolving security landscape throughout the region should trigger a revision of the very concept of effective governance. Against this backdrop, how should Security Sector Reform (SSR) strategies and programmes adapt? What lessons can be drawn from selected case studies such as Iraq, Libya, and Yemen?
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, and North Africa

2119. The Politics of Pandemics. Evolving Regime-Opposition Dynamics in the MENA Region

Author:
Karim Mezran, Annalisa Perteghella, Nadereh Chamlou, Gawdat Bahgat, Abbas Kadhim, Hafsa Halawa, Yahia Mohamed, Lemine Mestek, and Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time, as many countries in the MENA region remain engulfed in vicious internal conflicts or must cope with structural socio-economic distress and popular dissent. In many respects, such a context and many of its problems resemble those that formed the backdrop for the Arab Spring in 2011. Exactly like what happens with humans, who are hit the hardest when presenting pre-existing conditions, MENA states have been impacted because of their own pre-existing conditions. In this sense, the Covid-19 pandemic has laid bare all the vulnerabilities and deficiencies of these states’ structures, and has aggravated pre-existing political, social, and economic shortcomings. How has the pandemic impacted state structures? What is its effect on organized protests and spontaneous popular movements? What are the possible long-term consequences?
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, and Gulf Cooperation Council

2120. After the Storm: Post-Pandemic Trends in the Southern Mediterranean

Author:
Andrei Kortunov, Paola Magri, Ines Abdel Razek, Andrey Chuprygin, Chiara Lovotti, Matteo Villa, Elena Corradi, Ivan Bocharov, and Ruslan Mamedov
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region has faced a significant number of challenges that have stemmed from turbulent events taking place on its Southern shores: conflicts and instability, the migration crisis, disruptions of regional value chains, souring regional relations, and foreign power interferences that have severely affected the region. The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the Southern Mediterranean, but the health crisis had ambiguous effects on the underlying economic, social, and political trends of the region. It has exposed and exacerbated much of the previous sources of tension and, obscured many of them as public attention moved towards facing the public health emergency. Will the Covid-19 pandemic spur governments and civil societies to action? Or will it just serve as another smokescreen behind which to hide the region's longstanding problems?
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Mediterranean

2121. A green industrial policy for Europe

Author:
Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Green Deal aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. This is not going to be an easy journey. To be successful, the European Green Deal will have to foster major shifts in the European industrial structure, including transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy and from combustion engine cars to electric cars. Shifting economies from brown to green would be a major, historic socio-economic transformation. In this context of broad, paradigmatic, change for European industry, a ‘green industrial policy’ will be fundamental to Europe’s climate change ambitions. But what is green industrial policy? What market failures must it address? Unlike traditional industrial policy, green industrial policy must be directed to twin goals of climate protection and social welfare. Green industrial policy initiatives in the European Union so far, however, have been piecemeal and fragmented. This Blueprint examines how past mistakes can be avoided and how the EU can develop a coherent green industrial policy that will serve the goals of the European Green Deal.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

2122. A Platform of Top Peace, Security & Foreign Policy Issues Concerning Women of Color in the United States

Author:
Bonnie Jenkins
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:
The policy priorities outlined in this document will hopefully provide useful information to candidates for the 2020 Presidential election on issues of importance to women of color in the areas of peace, security, conflict transformation and foreign policy. The information included here is based on surveys with over 100 women of color (WOC), the majority of whom are members of WCAPS but also WOC who came across the survey through online platforms and the WCAPS website. While the original purpose of this survey is to provide information to the candidates, this survey will be repeated regularly, the next one prior to the 2020 election, to gauge once again the priority of women of color on the important issues of peace and security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, Girls, and Women of Color
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2123. U.S. and China Climate Goals: Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced new goals for China to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, as well as to strengthen its existing 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement. With these announcements, China has signaled a move to join the European Union—as well as the United States under a Biden administration—in leading long-term climate action among the big emitters. Our analysis demonstrates that if China’s new long-term goal covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and not just carbon dioxide (CO₂), this could bring the country within reach of the emissions reductions required by mid-century for its actions to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5°C. However, if President Xi’s announcement is only meant to cover CO₂, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.1 Either way, China’s short-term actions will also need to be quickly brought into line with its new long-term trajectory. This includes doing more than simply peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 as President Xi foreshadowed. Instead, our analysis demonstrates that China would need to peak its emissions by 2025 and rapidly reduce these thereafter to be compatible with the Paris Agreement. This also implies a need for significant adjustments to the other quantifiable targets identified in China’s existing Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and the ramping up of action to achieve these. Reducing coal-fired power generation quickly and phasing it out entirely by 2040 would be an important step toward achieving this early peak and rapid reductions. Under the Trump administration, the United States has reneged on past climate action promises and rolled back existing policies resulting in an increase in emissions compared with the Obama administration. As a result, this report highlights that even under a Biden administration, the United States is likely to miss its previous 2025 target under the Paris Agreement. However, a Biden administration means that the United States now has the potential to reverse the Trump administration’s rollbacks and make a significant contribution to closing the Paris Agreement’s ambition gap in a new 2030 NDC. Indeed, by taking the initiative to reboot U.S. action in line with the Energy and Climate Package touted by President-elect Biden during his campaign, including its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, U.S. emissions could be reduced substantially by 2030.2 For example, our analysis indicates that if the Biden campaign’s policies were to be fully implemented with the support of Congress (see below), and continue to be supported by strong subnational action, they could bridge more than half of the U.S. share of the global ambition gap by 2030 through reducing emissions by up to 38%–54% below 2005 levels (GHGs, including land use, land-use change and forestry)3. This would also reduce estimates for average global temperature increases in 2100 by 0.1°C, on top of the 0.2°C–0.3°C reduction achieved by China’s recent announcement. As this report shows, President-elect Biden’s plan to decarbonize the U.S. electricity system by 2035 would represent by far the biggest contribution to this effort and is in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. It would result in savings of ~1,350 MtCO₂ out of a total abatement potential of ~1,810 MtCO₂e [1,630–2,100] in 2030 across his Energy and Climate Package. However, this report also estimates that potentially only half of this potential could still be achieved through Executive Authority in the event of Congress not supporting action, although this estimate carries a large degree of uncertainty. We also outline how additional emissions reductions could come from action in other areas, including freight transport and industry—with the electrification of end-use sectors and green hydrogen important opportunities to achieve this. If the United States and China fully implement these ambitious goals and are able to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around mid-century, it would be a monumental step forward toward bringing the Paris Agreement goals within reach. It would also mean that for the first time more than 60% of the world’s emissions are in countries with a clear pathway to decarbonize their economies. However, achieving the goals will require bold action in all sectors of the economy, with an early coal phaseout being paramount for both countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2124. Reengaging the Asia-Pacific on Trade: A TPP Roadmap for the Next U.S. Administration

Author:
Wendy Cutler
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the aftermath of a presidential election, it’s not unusual for an incoming administration to revisit policy choices made by the previous administration or, in the case of reelection, during the first term. One decision that strongly merits another look after November is the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional trade agreement that the United States signed with 11 other countries in 2016. FULL REPORT Download In recent years, the case for U.S. participation in the TPP has only become more compelling as the political and economic importance of the Asia-Pacific region has grown and concerns about Beijing’s economic model have mounted. But is there a path for the United States to return to the TPP or to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which the 11 remaining countries finalized without the United States? This report by ASPI Vice President Wendy Cutler, Reengaging the Asia-Pacific on Trade: A TPP Roadmap for the Next U.S. Administration, examines the options that the next administration would have for reengaging the CPTPP countries on trade in light of domestic considerations and developments, as well as input from the CPTPP countries. The report concludes with a road map that offers concrete recommendations for how the next administration, Democrat or Republican, could proceed, including advocating a narrower trade negotiation as a first step to rebuilding trust and to lay the groundwork for pursuing a full-fledged CPTPP re-entry.
Topic:
Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

2125. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam

Author:
Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

2126. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 1)

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
One should highlight the distance between fiction and reality. However, a number of China politics observers and Western military officials have claimed a strong link between Coronavirus and recent research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2127. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 2)

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
What is needed now, more than ever, is a public debate of moral autonomy of citizens in redefining the rights and obligations of the state and reconstructing their moral authority. The debate needs to kick off on a blank slate.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2128. Moscow's Maneuvres for Mediterranean Bases and ME Markets

Author:
Zaki Shaikh
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
By carrying on the activities of the Russian military contingents in Syria and with its backing of Libya’s renegade general Khalifa Haftar, Moscow seeks to reassert its role in the Mediterranean and leverage a strategy for generating low-risk yet high yield wins.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Mediterranean

2129. Africa Versus Coronavirus: Four Much-Needed Capabilities

Author:
Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
For many African countries, prevention of Coronavirus has no alterative as financial and structural demands of treatment far exceed capabilities. Without stricter measures, the infection curve will be exponential and flattening it will take a long time with more deaths.
Topic:
Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa

2130. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 1

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Leadership in crisis can be a mixture of science, history, and art. It derives from the need for being well-informed with data and dynamics, well-enlightened with best practices and matured wisdom among previous leaders in similar challenging times.
Topic:
Governance, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2131. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 2

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
It seems to be a three-way failure of leadership, national public policies, as well as international institutions, and should not be overshadowed by mere crisis management. By April 12, the infection cases escalated to 1,781,383 with 108,864 deaths worldwide.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2132. The U.S.-Iran Showdown: Clashing Strategic Universes Amid a Changing Region

Author:
Ross Harrison
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The United States and Iran are poised for a showdown. Understanding where we are today with this conflict and where we are likely to go in the future requires that we look at the conflicting strategic doctrines between the United States and Iran against a backdrop of a shifting Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2133. China’s Battle with Coronavirus: Possible Geopolitical Gains and Real Challenges

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
China has tried to take advantage of the Coronavirus crisis to boost its international role and status. Nonetheless, China’s own mistakes in battling the virus as well as diplomatic aggressiveness have raised doubts about its capacity to become a world leader.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2134. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective

Author:
Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2135. Awaiting A Post-Coronavirus Dawn: What Kind of Recovery?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
What kind of economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis should we expect? Attempts to answer this question must start by acknowledging an unusually high degree of uncertainty about the immediate future. There is uncertainty about the recurrence of the virus, about how policy makers will balance public health and economic goals, and about the ability of governments to ramp up their capacity to test, trace and isolate the infected, thereby making it safe for others to return to work. Further sources of uncertainty include the behavioral responses of households and investors, the sustainability of the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies adopted in response to the crisis, and the extent to which economic organization will change in the new public-health environment. These aspects of the current crisis and their contrasts with crises past suggest that recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will be bumpy, subdued and above all uncertain, and that it will differ in Europe and the United States.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

2136. Responding to Kissinger: The Risks of Remodeling Neoliberalism and Manipulating the Enlightenment values

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Kissinger aims to skip any debate of the financial elitist performance of Neoliberalism. He seeks to dissipate concerns over a post-Coronavirus reality with some romanticized Enlightenment values. He expects the world’s democracies “to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values.”
Topic:
Finance and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2137. Into Orbit: Iran’s Nour 1 Satellite and the Two-Wing Doctrine

Author:
Ali Akbar Dareini
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
“The Central Intelligence Agency has been secretly supplying Iraq with detailed intelligence, including data from sensitive U.S. satellite reconnaissance photography, to assist Iraqi bombing raids on Iran’s oil terminals and power plants in the war between the two nations … Iraq reportedly used the intelligence to calibrate attacks with mustard gas on Iranian ground troops.” (1) This was a Washington Post report in 1986. “In 1988, during the waning days of Iraq’s war with Iran, the United States learned through satellite imagery that Iran was about to gain a major strategic advantage by exploiting a hole in Iraqi defenses. U.S. intelligence officials conveyed the location of the Iranian troops to Iraq, fully aware that (Saddam) Hussein’s military would attack with chemical weapons, including sarin, a lethal nerve agent.” (2) This was part of one of the declassified CIA documents published by Foreign Policy on 26 August 2013. Satellite imagery, communications intercepts and CIA assessments forwarded by the United States to Iraqi commanders showing ‘where the Iranian weaknesses were’ led to the death of many Iranian soldiers and civilians during the bloody 1980-88 war. That bitter and costly experience left a profound impact on the minds of Iranian military strategists. Having an intelligence eye to watch enemies from the sky and prevent similar disasters in the future preoccupied their brains. At the outset, possessing instruments of visual observation in the sky appeared to be a dream for many Iranians. But that would be a long-term project to make sure that Iran would not suffer again. Reconnaissance satellite is now widely seen as a strategic asset enabling states possessing this technology to obtain first-hand key information about the activities and resources of their enemies. It also enables states to protect their national security in this competitive world. This paper argues that great powers threaten weaker states. And regional powers like Iran have no option to survive but to get strong in order not to be bullied. It also argues that Iran, by successfully launching its “first military satellite” into orbit, has demonstrated a new capability that may shift the balance of power in its favor amid increasing tensions with the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2138. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 1

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

2139. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 2

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

2140. How Arab States Take on Coronavirus: Morocco as a Case Study

Author:
Mohammed Issam Laaroussi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Tremendous socio-economic and political challenges are facing Morocco during the Coronavirus crisis. Regardless of the promising signs of a short-term momentum in unity and institutional trust, the institutional weaknesses in the public policy and healthcare system have not disappeared.
Topic:
Politics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Arab Countries, and Morocco

2141. Beyond Health: Looking for Europe’s Strategy vis-à-vis the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:
Thibaud Deruelle
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Europe is among the most affected regions in the world by the spread of COVID-19. The continent was designated in March 2020 as the new epicenter of the pandemic and Europe’s recovery strategy to the crisis seems to be threatened by a lack of solidarity. This paper analyses how the European Union (EU) governance system has – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It examines how the insufficiencies of the EU governance system have – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity(1) rather than a make-or-break event. Crises in the EU are important catalysts of change(2) and offer a propitious context for policy learning.(3) This paper suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity rather than a make-or-break event. Two lessons are highlighted: first, this crisis shows that if Europeans bet on solidarity as an incentive to cooperate, their chances to produce prompt and ambitious responses are slim and overshadowed by power-struggles on what the governance of the EU ought to be. Second, while the crisis started as a public health problem, the crux of the debate is now centered on a common economic recovery strategy. The challenge ahead will be to avoid that lessons learned about public health are cannibalized by economic affairs.
Topic:
Governance, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

2142. Trump’s Presidency: Nuances of Leadership versus Management of Crises

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The current riots across America represent a moment of rebuttal at the conjuncture between an exit from the Coronavirus dilemma and Trump’s pursuit of a second term a few weeks before the National Conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
Topic:
Conflict, Crisis Management, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2143. The Lingering Stalemate: Qatar’s Blockade Awaits a Mediation Exit

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On June 6, 2020, the Qatari crisis entered its fourth year with two parallel political discourses, which have endured the complexity of issues between Qatar and the Quartet [Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt] since early June 2017: a) diplomatic hopes in the U.S.-backed Kuwaiti mediation amidst several gestures of rapprochement between the Qataris and the Saudis; and b) disparity of positions by the disputing parties while maintaining status quo politics. The Trump administration has urged the Quartet capitals to reopen their airspace for Qatari airlines as a step toward ending the open-ended blockade. The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials saying "there is a greater sense of urgency to resolve the airspace issue. It's an ongoing irritation for us that money goes into Iran's coffers due to Qatar Airways overflights." (1) The Trump White House has been irritated by the so-called "overfly fees" that Qatar pays to Iran to use its airspace. There is growing hope Washington’s call will trigger momentum for lifting the land and sea blockade imposed on Qatar as well. Qatar’s foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani hopes “the initiative will produce results, we are open to dialogue and ready to meet each step forward with 10 steps from our side.” (2) Unlike the Saudis, the Emiratis have maintained the 2017 demands, and UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash insists “this issue will stay with us, and we have to manage it in a better way until we reach a future stage.” He has often characterized the blockade as “a result of Doha's interference policies," and argued "the solution for this crisis should be based on dealing with the causes of it." (3) As a result, the three-year blockade is causing a hurting stalemate for both sides of the Gulf conflict. In his new book “Qatar and the Gulf Crisis”, Kristian C. Ulrichsen argues the blockade has become “stuck at a political level where the Saudi and Emirati leadership—and especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed—appear reluctant to make the first move to offer concessions or progress to a negotiated compromise.” (4) This paper examines some major narrative turns of the Quartet-Qatar showdown and the transformation of Trump’s position. It traces the possibility of a de-escalation shift along Washington’s pursuit of mediation in the framework of the Kuwaiti diplomacy; and weighs on the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as a counterbalance of the Arab Gulf strategic (dis)unity and common existentialism in a turbulent region.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi

2144. The Hard Chess Puzzle: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ versus Iran’s ‘Maximum Resistance’

Author:
Kayhan Barzegar
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the dice of the “maximum pressure” and “maximum resistance” policies are rotating between Iran and the United States, a new synthesis, seemingly satisfactory for both parties, emerges and that is appealing to a “minimum containment” policy and avoiding an unwanted war.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2145. The Pandemic Makes Politics Worse: The Unites States as a Case Study

Author:
Jennifer Nicoll Victor
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Covid-19 makes politics worse because it has generated not only greater awareness about many inequalities in the US, but it also has sharpened those inequalities. Unfortunately, inequalities such as those discussed here have a way of becoming self-perpetuating.
Topic:
Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2146. The Islamic Group and Lebanon’s Popular Uprising*

Author:
Chafic Choucair
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
While a number of key and effective groups within the Lebanese regime stood against the Hirak movement, other parties, though few in number, provided the popular movement with unconditional support, as in the case of the Islamic Group (al-Jama’ah al-Islamiya).
Topic:
Politics, Islamism, Hezbollah, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2147. COVID-19: The Lingering Conflict and the Regional Balance of Power in Yemen

Author:
Moosa Elayah
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The longer the pandemic lasts, with its detrimental financial and social effects, the higher the chances for terrorist groups to increase their influence in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria and spread this to neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

2148. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

2149. Morocco’s SocioEconomic Challenges: Employment, Education, and Migration – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Even though the Moroccan king’s readiness to introduce reforms in response to the mass protests in 2011 has prevented the kind of radical change occurring in many other countries in the MENA region and has maintained the country’s relative stability, Morocco’s social peace remains fragile. Social unrest has flared recurrently, most prominently in the Rif region, as socio-economic grievances persist. The country continues to suffer from significant regional disparities, a poor education system, and high unemployment, especially among the young.
Topic:
Education, Migration, Employment, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Morocco

2150. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Jordan

2151. Jordan’s Socio-Economic Woes and Foreign Policy Employment, Trade, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Grievances have been growing over Jordan’s socio-economic and political problems, including high public debt, a significant current account deficit, and high unemployment. In June 2018, former Prime Minister Hani al-Mulki was forced to resign after mass protests swept the country in response to a new income tax law proposal. Jordan’s socio-economic challenges are further augmented by its challenging neighborhood. This includes the conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, the threat posed by extremist actors in the region as well as the impact which the Gulf Cooperation Council’s crisis over the blockade of Qatar has had on Jordan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Employment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

2152. Socio-Economic Development and Violent Extremism in Morocco Morocco’s Regional Policy, Migration and (De-)Radicalization – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Similar to many other countries in the region, violent extremist groups and ideologies pose a significant threat to Moroccan society and the stability of the country. In response, the government has pursued a highly security-based approach, which has resulted in the arrest of over 3,000 (alleged) jihadis and the dismantling of 186 terrorist cells between 2002 and 2018. While the root causes are multi- faceted, Morocco’s ongoing socio-economic challenges, which have reinforced economic and political grievances, have fueled radicalization. For this reason, some have demanded that the government prioritize greater domestic engagement instead of increasing investment in countries south of the Sahara.
Topic:
Security, Development, Migration, Violent Extremism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

2153. Issue Paper: Good Practices in Evaluating Tertiary PVE Programs

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The transnational dimension of violent extremism calls for a comprehensive approach to prevention. International exchange of knowledge is crucial to enable an effective response. In addition, while more and more countries have increasingly focused on the prevention of violent extremism (PVE) (as opposed to purely repressive counter terrorism measures), actors need to be able to understand and demonstrate which measures work as well as how and why they do.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

2154. Towards European Anticipatory Governance for Artifi cial Intelligence

Author:
Georgios Kolliarakis and Isabella Hermann
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report presents the findings of the Interdisciplinary Research Group “Responsibility: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence” of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the Technology and Global Affairs research area of DGAP. In September 2019, they brought leading experts from research and academia together with policy makers and representatives of standardization authorities and technology organizations to set framework conditions for a European anticipatory governance regime for artificial intelligence (AI).
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe

2155. Pushing the EU to a Hamiltonian Moment: Germany’s Court Ruling and the Need to Build a Fiscal Capacity Force a Constitutional Debate

Author:
Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The recent ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the ECB was an economic and political bombshell. The deep controversy that resulted – within Germany and on a European scale – illustrates that the ambiguity surrounding the euro area’s legal order and architecture may have reached its limit. The ruling, combined with the plan to build a fiscal capacity to address the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis, presents the EU with an important opportunity to complete and solidify the euro area.
Topic:
European Union, Constitution, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2156. Issue Paper: Reintegration of Returnees from Syria and Iraq

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
InFoEx is a joint project of the Research Center for Migration, Integration and Asylum of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). In the course of 2019 and 2020, InFoEx brings together best practices and scientific findings from tertiary prevention in Germany and abroad. The aim of the project is to gather empirical findings on (de)radicalization processes, with a focus on their practical applicability for deradicalization work. To this end, the BAMF Research Centre initiated a network of research fellows who are embedded at local advice centers and research institutions partnering with the BAMF Advice Centre “Radicalisation.”
Topic:
Migration, Radicalization, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

2157. Boosting Immigration: Harnessing Global Talent to Increase US Competitiveness, Innovation, and Prosperity

Author:
The Conference Board
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
As immigration reform remains in gridlock, a new report from a nonpartisan think tank whose membership is comprised of top-level business executives calls on policymakers to enact various changes to bolster America’s workforce and economic might. Published by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED), recommendations from the public policy think tank include streamlining the visa process to strengthen the country’s attractiveness to the most in-demand foreign workers, and increasing economically motivated offers of permanent residence.
Topic:
Immigration, Reform, Public Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

2158. The China Trade Challenge: Phase II

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
China’s fast-paced economic rise and defiance of globally accepted market rules—along with the growing and yet unknown economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19)—are driving the next phase of US-China trade negations to the top of the nation’s post-election agenda. While the Phase I US-China trade deal has eased tension, it also set the stage for discussions on other important economic disputes, including forced technology transfer, cyber theft of intellectual property (IP), industrial policies, state subsidies, and new technology, according to a new Solutions Brief, The China Trade Challenge: Phase II, by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, Global Political Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2159. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q3 Update

Author:
Hiba Itani
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board estimates the Gulf region’s GDP growth to fall at -5.7 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The slight improvement in oil prices in Q3 along with the easing of production cuts as of August will give oil GDP a small boost. As worries of a possible second wave of coronavirus in Q4 mount, consumer demand will weaken further, netting the rise in oil GDP.
Topic:
Oil, GDP, Economy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

2160. C-Suite Challenge™ 2020: Japan Edition

Author:
Bart van Ark, Rebecca L. Ray, Charles Mitchell, and Ilaria Maselli
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Japanese regional edition of this year’s C-Suite Challenge™ survey focuses on internal and external stress points faced by businesses, the objectives, barriers and benefits of successful collaboration initiatives, and the importance of data privacy and cyber security. Emphasis is also given on the business strategies Japanese CEOs focus on in order to enhance productivity growth. The shifting priorities between now and in the future reveals CEO awareness to improve productivity as technology evolves and customer demands change.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Privacy, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

2161. CEOs in Europe: Business Conditions, the COVID-19 Crisis, and Beyond

Author:
Ilaria Maselli and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board and ERT have established a collaboration to create a new measure of CEO Confidence for Europe. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ for Europe by ERT for the first half of 2020 is 34 (on a scale from 0 to 100). The report examines the survey results including CEO views about business and economic conditions now, conditions in six months, and the prospects for their own industry. The negative sentiment among business leaders resulted from the dramatic impact of the COVID-19 crisis which delivered a severe supply shock to the economy in Europe and around the world.
Topic:
Economy, Business, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

2162. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q1 Update

Author:
Hiba Itani
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Gulf countries face a somber outlook, with the GDP of the region expected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 compared to 2019. The Gulf countries whose economies remain highly dependent on hydrocarbon are ahead of “perfect storm” like scenario: a humanitarian crisis, that morphed into a global demand shock and pushed oil prices into a free-fall. A historical oil production cut agreement barely managed to improve prices.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

2163. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia

2164. The Mekong Matters for America/America Matters for the Mekong

Author:
East-West Center and Stimson Center
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This report explores the trade, investment, business, diplomacy, security, education,and people-to-people connections between the United States and the five countries of mainland Southeast Asia referred to as the Mekong region. Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam are bound together and geographically defined by the Mekong River, which has historically provided a rich, natural bounty of fish, agricultural productivity, physical connectivity, and key environmental services to more than 60 million people living in the river basin. The Mekong’s importance has only grown as the region’s social, economic, and diplomatic ties export the river’s bounty to the rest of the world. As the region develops, urbanization, infrastructure development, and climate change—among other changes—are all impacting the river, its resources, and the millions who depend on the mighty Mekong. This publication was produced in partnership with the Stimson Center Southeast Asia Program.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, Myanmar, and United States of America

2165. Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’

Author:
Vibeke Schou Tjalve and Minda Holm
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this policy note, we explore the nature, strength and tensions of the contemporary US-Central Eastern Europe relationship. We describe the expanding US-CEE ‘brotherhood in arms’: growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and rekindled diplomatic ties. Further, we unpack the striking and largely ignored dimensions of the US-CEE ‘brotherhood in faith’: the many ways in which the United States and Central and Eastern Europe are tied together by overlapping ideologies of national conservatism and a particular version of Christian ‘family values’. This involves addressing the complexities of an increasingly influential and ambitious Visegrád Group, whose key players – Poland and Hungary – may be brothers, but are by no means twins. It also means raising some broader, burning discussions about the future of NATO and the meaning of ‘Europe’. Universalist, multicultural and postnational? Or conservative, Christian and sovereigntist?
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conservatism, Alliance, Ideology, Christianity, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

2166. Unparalleled: COVID-19 and the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen

Author:
Leah Zamore, Hanny Megally, and Tayseer Alkarim
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After five years of devastating conflict, Yemen now faces an escalating COVID-19 crisis. The effects of the war have drastically diminished the country’s ability to cope with a pandemic, and the economic impact of the crisis is rapidly becoming devastating as well. If allowed to take hold, COVID-19 threatens the lives of nearly 30 million people who are already suffering through the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Nor is the risk posed by COVID-19’s spread in Yemen limited to Yemenis. A pandemic that recognizes no borders or fault-lines cannot fester anywhere without threatening health security everywhere. Yet the international response so far has been both muted and slow. A new approach is urgently needed—one that aims not only to address the immediate threat that COVID-19 poses, but to tackle the underlying conditions that have left Yemen so uniquely vulnerable to the virus in the first place. This report explains how Yemen became so vulnerable to COVID-19, traces the impact of the pandemic so far, including the risk to vulnerable groups, and offers a critical perspective on the international action necessary to prevent further catastrophe in a country already suffering the world’s worst humanitarian crisis—from renewed pressure for a ceasefire to a dramatically scaled-up humanitarian response.
Topic:
Conflict, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

2167. The New Secretary-General Report on Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Prevention Back on the Agenda

Author:
Paige Arthur, Céline Monnier, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the newly released secretary-general’s report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace contains, as usual, a wealth of examples of the steps that the United Nations (UN) system is taking to implement the sustaining peace resolutions. It also suggests a welcome and surprising finding: the conflict prevention agenda—once thought to be on life-support at the UN—has found new vigor. This briefing examines the new report, finding that it moves the prevention agenda forward in several key respects, from deepening political buy-in among member states and partners, to a greater embrace of conflict-sensitive approaches in the field. The briefing also identifies key opportunities for prevention to take root in the UN’s practice—including continued strengthening of expertise on prevention; deepening partnerships with the IFIs; leveraging links with violence reduction initiatives, especially relating to SDG16; focusing on area-based approaches to address multiple risks; and more action on humanitarian-development-peacebuilding nexus approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2168. The UN’s Pandemic Response: The Beginnings of a Real Global Plan?

Author:
Leah Zamore, Knut Gerlach, and Ben Oppenheim
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Describing the coronavirus pandemic as a “global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations” the UN has in recent days called for the launch of a large-scale, coordinated, and comprehensive multilateral response to combat the virus and its attendant economic and social consequences. It has published a set of action plans that aim to avert the potentially catastrophic impact of the virus, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished communities.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Reform, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2169. Coping with COVID-19 and Conflict in Afghanistan

Author:
Said Sabir Ibrahimi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Afghanistan faces many hurdles in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic: a prolonged armed conflict, a lack of social protection systems, limited healthcare capacity, and insufficient preparedness and coordination mechanisms. The Afghan government has developed a response plan and secured aid from international donors, but effective implementation remains challenging. This briefing by Said Sabir Ibrahimi and Dr. Naqibullah Safi provides an overview of the current state of the COVID-19 response in Afghanistan against the background of the ongoing conflict. It also details the additional challenges that hamper Afghanistan’s ability to deal with the crisis and provides recommendations for mitigating them.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Conflict, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

2170. Public Opinion, Trust, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Paul von Chamier, Nendirmwa Noel, Sarah Cliffe, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, policymakers must navigate public perceptions of coronavirus risk and government responses. This task is all the more challenging given press coverage focusing on outliers and extreme views, polarization and disinformation on social media platforms, and the relative dearth of reliable public opinion polling. These constraints notwithstanding, understanding people’s perceptions of the impact of COVID-19 and their priorities emerging from this crisis will be crucial for building back better. This two-part briefing pulls together data from several global, regional, and national polls conducted over the past month and a half to provide a descriptive summary of trends in public opinion towards COVID-19. The first part of the briefing, by Paul von Chamier, Nendirmwa Noel, and Elizabeth Angell, focuses on global polls tracking levels of public trust in government and other institutions, and public perceptions of the trade-offs involved in calibrating lockdown measures. Overall, the results suggest that most people around the world are highly concerned about the pandemic, supportive of a strong government response, and willing to suffer economic losses in order to save lives—although not without limit. The second part, by Leah Zamore and Sarah Cliffe, focuses on polling from low-income countries, especially in Africa, which find similar trends. However, the greater vulnerability of low-income households in those countries and the practical barriers to some social distancing and lockdown measures mean that public support will decline as people experience greater hardships. The briefing suggests that adequate and equitable government support is a vital prerequisite to sustaining trust—and thus the global public health response.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2171. I Need You, I Don’t Need You: South Africa and Inga III

Author:
CIC Congo Research Group
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
A new report from CIC’s Congo Research Group and Phuzumoya Consulting, I Need You, I Don’t Need You: South Africa and Inga III, places South Africa’s backing of Inga III in the context of its foreign policy. The report argues that South Africa’s current Inga policy is contradictory, oscillating between the desire to project an image of being a pan-Africanist power promoting the continent’s economic development, and the reality that committing to the project makes little financial or energy policy sense. A power purchasing agreement from South Africa is critical for the dam’s construction—but buying electricity from Inga III will be risky for South Africa, especially since it may end up being expensive than other sources. The resulting uncertainty about whether South Africa will ever really be an anchor client for Inga III thus puts into question the bankability—and indeed the feasibility—of the whole project.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Congo

2172. The UN’s Pandemic Response: The Beginnings of a Real Global Plan?

Author:
Leah Zamore, Karina Gerlach, and Ben Oppenheim
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Describing the coronavirus pandemic as a “global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations” the UN has in recent days called for the launch of a large-scale, coordinated, and comprehensive multilateral response to combat the virus and its attendant economic and social consequences. It has published a set of action plans that aim to avert the potentially catastrophic impact of the virus, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished communities.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2173. Gone Without a Trace: Syria's Detained, Abducted, and Forcibly Disappeared

Author:
Hanny Megally and Elena Naughton
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Tens of thousands of people have been unlawfully detained by the Syrian government and other parties to the conflict in Syria. In most cases, their fate—and if they are alive, their whereabouts—remains unknown. Many families have been waiting for word of their spouses, children, and other relatives since mass protests first began in 2011. This situation is adversely affecting not only Syrians inside the country—including over 6.5 million who are internally displaced—but also many of the 5.6 million refugees who are likewise desperately seeking answers about family members from abroad. This joint report from the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) and the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) recommends a set of urgent steps that should be taken to assist families in obtaining information about the whereabouts of their loved ones, gaining access to them, and achieving their prompt release. Authored by CIC's Hanny Megally and ICTJ's Elena Naughton, the report details the scope of the detention crisis and argues that answers and coordinated action are needed now. Time is of the essence, as the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be accelerating in Syria, putting those detained in overcrowded and unsanitary prisons at further risk. Any meaningful progress toward a political agreement in Syria will be dependent on more than a negotiated ceasefire or reduction in violence and urgent access to humanitarian assistance. There will be little or no possibility of lasting peace without addressing critical issues, like the question of the missing, detained, abducted, and forcibly disappeared.
Topic:
Prisons/Penal Systems, Syrian War, Crimes Against Humanity, Humanitarian Crisis, and State Abuse
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2174. Adopting a Sustaining Peace Lens to the COVID-19 Response

Author:
Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
COVID-19 is creating a series of crises that increase the risk of conflict worldwide. Beyond the health impact, issues like worsening inequality, food insecurity, human rights abuses, and political tensions can deepen pre-existing social fractures in any country, creating additional layers of grievance. Addressing these risks early on and building resilience to them is key to preventing the potential for violence. But the pandemic also brings new opportunities for peacebuilding. A system-wide implementation of the sustaining peace approach is critical to ensure that United Nations response contributes to decreasing risks for violent conflict in the longer term—including efforts to “build back better.” This report draws on interviews with 25+ individuals across the UN system and member states to highlight some of the key challenges for peacebuilding in the immediate COVID-19 period as well as in the longer term. The report documents how entities across the UN have made positive steps toward implementing a sustaining peace approach, and provides recommendations for deepening these gains across the system.
Topic:
Human Rights, Inequality, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2175. With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea

Author:
Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
North Korea’s promise to deliver an end-of-year “Christmas gift” went unfulfilled amid signs that the United States wanted to continue diplomacy with the Kim regime. This has led to a continued lull in tensions between the two countries, although actual progress in negotiations remains elusive. With that lack of progress, President Donald Trump has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the US presidential election in November. In a survey conducted from January 10–12, 2020, the American public is now less concerned about the threat posed by North Korea, but little else has changed in terms of Americans’ policy preferences to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Majorities still oppose airstrikes against North Korea and support long-term military bases in South Korea.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2176. Majority of Iranians Oppose Development of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Dina Smeltz and Amir Farmanesh
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Both the United States and Iran have been among the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, but neither country has moved away from mutual confrontation. Nationwide surveys conducted by IranPoll this winter – before the spread of the virus and before the US strike against Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani – show that although Iranians say their country should not develop nuclear weapons, they have lost confidence in the nuclear agreement and think that the P5+1 countries (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council including China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—plus Germany) have not lived up to their obligations. Chicago Council survey results from January 2020 show that a majority of Americans say they would favor rejoining the agreement if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Disarmament, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2177. Conflict-Related Sexual Assault— Historic Barriers to International Recognition

Author:
Nicole Mattea
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Conflict-Related Sexual Assault— Historic Barriers to International Recognition JUNE 26, 2020 By: Nicole Mattea, Women, Peace, and Security Intern, Chicago Council on Global Affairs In April of 2019, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2493 within the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda. This resolution recognizes sexual violence occurring on a continuum of violence against women and girls, recognizes national responsibility on addressing sexual violence, and recognizes the need for survivor-based and survivor-centered approaches to preventative and provisionary responses. Despite this resolution and several others adopted within the last several years, it was only a little over a decade ago in 2008 that the United Nations (UN) first recognized the role of sexual violence as a war tactic and began implementing strategies to address and respond to such violence on a global scale. This delay and lack of international attention is due to a series of long-held beliefs about rape, sexual violence, and consent, as well an acceptance of conflict-related sexual violence as inevitable to conflict. To explain the recent emergence of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) into international discourse and preventative strategies, I will define CRSV, explain the history of CRSV in international law and international human rights, and examine the belief systems surrounding CRSV that, until recent years, restricted prosecution and peacekeeping efforts.
Topic:
United Nations, Women, Conflict, Sexual Violence, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2178. Troop Withdrawal Likely to Undermine South Korean Public Support for Alliance with United States

Author:
Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
The United States and South Korea remain locked in negotiations over the Special Measures Agreement (SMA)—the agreement which formally determines how much South Korea contributes to the financial cost of stationing US troops in South Korea. In the past, these negotiations took place behind the scenes away from the public eye. But keeping details of this round of negotiations private proved difficult when it was disclosed that the United States requested $5 billion dollars, an unprecedented 400 percent increase from the previous year. When the two sides failed to reach a deal by April 1, 4,000 Koreans who work on US bases in South Korea were furloughed. The public attention to these negotiations—and the US request being framed as extortive by Korean media and US analysts—raised concerns that the South Korean public’s positive views of the alliance would be damaged. But just-completed polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs suggests that is not the case. Little has changed in terms of South Korean attitudes towards the alliance. The South Korean public remains positive about the alliance, supportive of stationing US troops in South Korea, and confident that the US will defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. But the data also suggests that there are scenarios in which South Korean public confidence could be punctured. Confidence in the US commitment to defend South Korea if attacked by North Korea is strongly related to views that the alliance with the United States is mutually beneficial. This, in turn, implies that the biggest downside risk to support for the alliance stems from actions that would impact US credibility to defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. While a range of actions may trigger a decrease in confidence in US commitment to defend South Korea, one of the most immediate reported to be under consideration is a partial withdrawal of US troops. This move has the potential to shift South Korean attitudes away from seeing the alliance as mutually beneficial and towards views that the alliance benefits only the United States.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Alliance, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2179. New Solutions for a Changing Climate

Author:
Molly Jahn
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
US public investment in agricultural research in the 20th and 21st centuries has resulted in unprecedented worldwide production of a few staple crops and the improvement of dozens more. Increased crop yields and animal production have drastically reduced famine compared to previous centuries and supported an overall increase in global affluence. Today, agricultural producers around the world are facing new challenges as global climate changes become increasingly unpredictable. Inconsistent rain, extreme temperatures, droughts, flooding, wildfires, and shifting pest and disease patterns are just a few of the obstacles farmers face as they try to feed their families and produce enough food to feed the world. In spite of these dire challenges, US public agricultural research funding has been decreasing over the past several decades. This has allowed competitors such as China and Brazil to outpace American ingenuity, take over American markets, and put American farmers at a disadvantage. The lack of investment in agricultural research and development is a critical national security concern. Historical US agricultural strength has contributed to US hard and soft power around the world. As the US food system is beset by increasing climate, economic, financial, and security threats, US rural communities have been left behind, undermining US power and domestic well-being. Increasing global food insecurity, which has been amplified by increasing weather extremes, will lead to economic and political instability in many areas of the world, further threatening US national security. Although the private sector plays a crucial role in the development of new agricultural techniques and products, public funding has been the backbone of many agriculture and food system advances. While agricultural research and development has historically focused primarily on increasing yields, this narrow focus does not adequately support the food requirements of today’s growing global population. There must be a revitalization of public investment in agricultural research, American food systems, and international agricultural development that focuses on the challenges of the future. US leadership is vital to ensuring the global research agenda does not leave farmers behind. Opportunities to build upon and enhance existing US agricultural research infrastructure across many diverse government entities abound. The US government should recognize these investment opportunities to address current and future climate challenges.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Research
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

2180. US Experts Consider China a Shifting and India a Stable Friend to Russia

Author:
Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
With both Russia and China facing increasingly confrontational relations with the United States, the two countries have increased ties with each other and have pursued similar approaches in opposition to the US government concerning Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. Steve Biegun, US Deputy Secretary of State, recently characterized the developing relationship between Russia and China as one built on “mutual determination to challenge the United States.” To better understand how experts think about Russia’s relations with the other great powers, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently conducted a survey of 201 American experts on Russia. The survey finds that a majority describe the relationship between Russia and China today as one of mostly partnership. They also describe India as primarily a partner to Russia, both today and in the future. By contrast, they say that Russian relations with the United States and the European Union are mostly competitive. But they anticipate that in 20 years, rivalry between Russia and China will grow, perhaps creating space for reducing tensions with the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2181. US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers

Author:
Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers OCTOBER 6, 2020 By: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University; Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Brendan Helm, Research Assistant Although President Trump initially hoped for improved relations between the United States and Russia, during his tenure the US government has overtly declared Russia a top threat to US national security. Congress and the administration widened Obama-era sanctions against Russia after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Data from a recent survey of American experts on Russia, conducted by The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints Russia as a declining power. The results show that while experts anticipate changes in the global balance of power in the next 20 years, with China overtaking the United States, they do not expect Russia to come out stronger over that time frame. Experts draw attention to Russia’s cracked economic and political foundation in the present and its likely decline over the next two decades due to economic mismanagement and faltering soft power. Now there are the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to add to this list.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2182. Conducting City Diplomacy: A Survey of International Engagement in 47 Cities

Author:
Anna Kosovac, Keith Hartley, Michele Acuto, and Darcy Gunning
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Conducting City Diplomacy: A Survey of International Engagement in 47 Cities OCTOBER 7, 2020 By: Anna Kosovac, Research Fellow, International Urban Policy, University of Melbourne’s Connected Cities Lab; Kris Hartley, Nonresident Fellow, Global Cities; Michele Acuto, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Cities; Darcy Gunning, Research Assistant, University of Melbourne’s Connected Cities Lab Executive Summary The impact of global challenges such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic manifests most acutely in urban settings, rendering cities essential players on the global stage. In the 2018 report Toward City Diplomacy, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs presented findings from a survey of 27 cities on the capacity of local governments around the world to network internationally—and the perceived barriers to that engagement. The report found that cities “need to invest in resources, expertise, and capacity to manage their relationships and responsibilities to conduct city diplomacy effectively.” In our new survey of 47 cities, we find that advice to still ring true. City officials broadly recognize the importance of engaging internationally but lack the necessary formal diplomacy training and resources for conducting that engagement to maximum effect. Nevertheless, cities maintain a strong commitment to global agendas, and international frameworks are increasingly influential in municipal affairs. For example, more than half of survey respondents said they track their city’s performance against the metrics of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Furthermore, we found that cities and their leaders are confident in their capacity to tackle global challenges. For instance, the majority of survey respondents said that city governments have greater potential for impact on climate change mitigation than their national government counterparts do, especially when acting collaboratively through city networks and multilateral urban programs. The individual stories of five cities whose officials participated in the study offer lessons for a variety of challenges and approaches to city diplomacy. Based on the survey results, we discuss the three primary obstacles cities must overcome in order to strengthen the role of city diplomacy globally: inadequate funding and resources for international engagement, insufficient training in city diplomacy, and the failure of national and multilateral bodies to fully recognize and formalize city engagement in diplomacy. We conclude with a framework for ensuring that city-diplomacy efforts are systematic and institutionalized rather than reliant on the personalities and connections of powerful city leaders. This capacity-building strategy can help cities leverage international coordination, information sharing, and intersectoral collaboration to address the complex and interconnected problems that will characterize the 21st century.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Sustainable Development Goals, Urban, Cities, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2183. Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China?

Author:
Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China? OCTOBER 13, 2020 By: Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Craig Kafura, Assistant Director, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy American Views of China Plummet; Public Split on Containment or Cooperation For the first time in nearly two decades, a majority of Americans describe the development of China as a world power as a critical threat to the United States, according to the 2020 Chicago Council Survey. At the same time, American feelings towards China have fallen to their lowest point in Council polling history, dating back to 1978. Reflecting these changing attitudes, Americans are now split on whether the US should cooperate and engage with China or actively seek to limit its influence. This is a significant change. Over the past four years, US-China relations have lurched from one crisis to another. Despite the sharp downturn in relations, and the growing consensus in Washington on pursing a more confrontational approach to China, Chicago Council Survey data through January 2020 showed that this consensus and the growing US-China rivalry had yet to make a deep impact on American views of China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Politics, Public Opinion, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2184. Americans Positive on South Korea Despite Trump’s Views on Alliance

Author:
Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
The Trump presidency has strained relations with several Asian allies, including South Korea. But the 2020 Chicago Council Survey results show that President Donald Trump’s repeated threats and bullying tactics on defense and trade issues with Seoul have done little to soften support among the American public for the alliance with South Korea. In fact, favorable views of South Korea are now at an all-time high.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America

2185. Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects?

Author:
Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects? OCTOBER 20, 2020 By: Paul Hofhuis, Senior Research Associate, Clingendael Institute As the US presidential election rapidly approaches, an important question is the prospects for (renewed) transatlantic cooperation, especially in the areas of green recovery to the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, tackling climate change, and addressing these issues through multilateral approaches. In analyzing ambitions and initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic in three connected policy arenas, this brief argues that while a Democratic victory provides greater opportunity for collaboration, underlying structures for cooperation among societal stakeholders in the United States need to be reinvigorated to diminish polarization in society, which could continue to block the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Green Technology, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

2186. Women and Girls as Change Agents

Author:
Catherine Bertini and Alyssa Ceretti
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Women and Girls as Change Agents JANUARY 6, 2020 By: Catherine Bertini, Distinguished Fellow, Global Food and Agriculture; Alyssa Ceretti, Executive and Research Assistant, Global FoodBanking Network Achieving universal primary education and eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary education have been among the global development community’s goals for two decades. As a fundamental requirement for lifelong health and opportunity, education underlies the success of communities, nations, and the world. Yet girls today are still being left behind. UN data shows of the estimated 25 million primary school-age children globally who were never enrolled in school in 2014, two-thirds were girls. This paper argues that educating girls has the power to break the cycle of poverty and transform societies. Educating girls has a multiplier effect: better health, prevention of early marriage and violence, lower fertility rates, higher family incomes, stronger community engagement, and better outcomes for their own children. Investing in girls’ education can put countries on the path to a more stable, prosperous future. The barriers to educating girls are numerous and complicated. Safety issues, school fees, family demands, and social and cultural norms, as well as lack of access to qualified teachers and adequate facilities, often combine to keep girls out of school. This paper argues that despite ample evidence of the transformative power of educating girls, not enough is being done to advance the advocacy for, research on, and promotion of girls’ education and empowerment. As the author states, education for all girls is not just a right, but a responsibility.
Topic:
Development, Education, Gender Issues, Poverty, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2187. Americans Feel Less Safe after Killing of Soleimani

Author:
Dina Smeltz and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
On January 3, the United States launched a drone strike in Iraq that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, ramping up tensions between Washington and Tehran. Results from a just-completed Chicago Council survey show that more Americans think the strike has made the United States less safe than more safe, and more name Iran as the country posing the greatest threat to the United States than any other country. If Iran restarts development toward a nuclear weapon, the US public prefers diplomacy, but more Americans now support military action against Iran.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2188. Considering a Soil Initiative for Africa

Author:
David Nielson
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Considering a Soil Initiative for Africa JANUARY 31, 2020 By: David Nielson In Sub-Saharan Africa, 65 percent of arable land suffers from soil degradation. The most extensive data on soils in Africa is grounded in soil mapping done in the 1950s and 1960s—60 to 70 years ago—which suggests that the problem could be even worse than currently known. This destruction is stifling agricultural productivity and income growth while prohibiting the soil from carrying out its climate control functions such as carbon sequestration and water filtration. This paper diagnoses the challenges faced by governments, international organizations and research institutions in mitigating and reversing the decline of soil quality in Africa. It highlights the dearth of human capital and resources that undermines these efforts and employs the lessons learned towards outlining a framework that is based on global partnership, stronger farmer engagement and robust investment. The paper argues for a new soil initiative that is organized around workstreams that prioritize establishing soil information systems, understanding the economic costs and consequences of soil degradation, and enhancing human and institutional capacity towards soil science. This multipronged approach will reinvigorate the fight against soil degradation and destruction both globally and on the African continent.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Government, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

2189. OK, Boomer: Youth Hesitant to Use Force, Shun US Exceptionalism in Foreign Policy

Author:
Brendan Helm and Dina Smeltz
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Millennials, the oft-referenced generation born in the ’80s and ’90s, are the first generation to have access to the internet in their youth and are the largest and most diverse generation in American history. Now for the first time, Millennials are running for US president: Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard were born in 1982 and 1981 respectively, putting them at the upper limit of the Millennial range. The 2019 Chicago Council Survey data provide insight into how this group views key foreign policy issues compared with previous generations. While there is some evidence that younger Americans are more hesitant to engage in the world and more likely to oppose the use of force than their elders, time will tell whether the post-Cold War and 9/11 experiences have shaped a new generation with enduring preferences for a more restrained, less military-focused foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Public Opinion, and Youth
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2190. American Public Support for US Troops in Middle East Has Grown

Author:
Dina Smeltz and Craig Kafura
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
American Public Support for US Troops in Middle East Has Grown FEBRUARY 10, 2020 By: Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Craig Kafura, Assistant Director, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy “As we defend American lives, we are working to end America’s wars in the Middle East,” President Donald Trump declared at State of the Union on February 4. Democratic presidential candidates, too, have made halting so-called “endless wars” a key talking point, ranging from cutting back troop levels to withdrawing the US military presence in the Middle East. A Chicago Council survey completed January 10–12 shows that as tensions with Iran have risen, Americans see an increased need to keep watch over the Middle East by maintaining a troop presence there. Key Findings: A majority of Americans say the US military presence in the Middle East should be maintained (45%) or increased (29%). Just 24 percent think it should be decreased. A majority support long-term military bases in Iraq (55%, up from 41% in 2014) and Kuwait (57%, up from 47% in 2014). Nearly half favor keeping bases in Afghanistan (48%, up from 43% in 2014). A combined majority (54%) say alliances in the Middle East benefit both Middle East partners and the United States or mostly benefit the United States.
Topic:
Security, Public Opinion, Armed Forces, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2191. Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry

Author:
Carla Hobbs
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has revealed the critical importance of technology for economic and health resilience, making Europe’s digital transformation and sovereignty a question of existential importance. Rising US-China tensions are an additional incentive for Europe to develop its own digital capabilities; it risks becoming a battleground in their struggle for tech and industrial supremacy. Democratic governments – keen to preserve an open market in digital services while protecting the interests of citizens – find the European model an increasingly attractive alternative to the US and Chinese approaches. The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game. Europe missed the first wave of technology but must take advantage of the next, in which it has competitive advantages such as in edge computing. EU member states lack a common position on tech issues or even a shared understanding of the strategic importance of digital technologies, such as on broadband rollout or application of AI.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sovereignty, Power Politics, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

2192. EU MONITOR: The new Slovak government: An exemplary to the rest of the V4 amidst global crises?

Author:
Miroslava Pěčková
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The results of Slovak presidential and European elections in 2019 indicated a political change in Slovakia, distancing itself from a twelve year-long dominance of ruling party SMER, which got embroiled in many corruption scandals throughout its reign. Firstly, the presidential elections in March 2019 appointed Zuzana Čaputová to President, defeating SMER´s candidate Maroš Šefčovič. She took hold of the office as an explicit advocate for multilateralism, anticorruption and a more liberal direction for the country, stating that her “main focus is to bring about change in Slovakia, and for Slovakia to be a reliable and predictable partner of the European Union”, while having an “inspirational effect” to other European countries in this regard1. Secondly, two months later, the coalition PS-SPOLU (whose former vice-president is Čaputová) noticeably won the elections to the European Parliament, with its programme promising a “real European Slovakia” and an intention to actively participate in the EU´s development and unity2. The coalition´s success marked another election lost by SMER in a row and subsequently offered the possibility of further political upheaval in the upcoming elections. The composition of the new government coalition arising from the 2020 Slovak parliamentary elections confirmed the change of political leadership in the country, thus bringing a potential for change as it consists of the parties of previous opposition and defined itself against its predecessor. This paper will analyse the new government´s programme and policies specifically pertaining to rule of law and green transformation vis-à-vis their feasibility in the context of contemporary developments. The COVID-19 pandemic influenced the beginning of the rule of the new government and is going to affect the real shape of its original political plans and reforms due to significant impact on Slovak economy. Moreover, the paper will reflect if these developments are likely to be significant in the Visegrad 4 context.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Rule of Law, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, and Slovakia

2193. Conference on the Future of Europe – another victim of the COVID-19?

Author:
Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
EUROPEUM's associate research fellow Zuzana Stuchlíková describes the impact of COVID-19 on the Conference on the Future of Europe in her EU Monitor. The Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) is one of the flagship projects of Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission, introduced the aftermath of the 2019 EP election and aimed at connecting citizens with various EU stakeholders and empowering them in the European project. However, the COVID-19 pandemic delayed it and preparations are restarting only now. A closer look shows that one year into the project, it lacks a clear vision. Key questions remain unanswered – what will be the format? Who will lead the negotiations? What should be the role of European institutions? And is the question of a treaty change completely off the table? The EU needs to open the essential questions and continue the dialogue on the future of Europe, despite the ongoing obstacles in the form of a global pandemic. However, only with a deep consensus on what the stated objectives of the conference is, how do they are achivable, how it is financed and how it is ensured that the implementation of the conclusions of it can be implemented can it mature from an ambitious idea to a viable project. It is essential that the CoFoE’s launch is not rushed at the expense of readiness - good will on its own is not enough and a rushed start could lead to a PR disaster that could further hamper European citizens’ trust in the EU institutions.
Topic:
European Union, Institutions, Conference, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

2194. Czech perception of EU’s Reaction to COVID-19

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
This text deals with the topic of the European Union's response to COVID-19 and how it is perceived by Czech society. As of 13th August 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 179 000 European lives out of 1,8 million who contracted with the virus1 . Most of the European states issued lockdowns, significantly curtailing economic activity. This resulted in the deepest recorded recession in the EU, reaching negative 11,9% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020. . ▪ As a reaction to the ongoing economic crisis, the European Council decided to create a joint €750 billion recovery fund called Next Generation EU that should be financed by loans and repaid after 2027, a significant step that might mitigate the poor perception of the EU actions during the initial weeks of the health crisis. Significant EU criticism appeared in Italy; leading international outlets started discussing whether Europe had lost Italy.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

2195. Czech Perception of the EU Climate Policy

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The latest article from Vít Havelka aims to explain how the Czech population perceives the EU Climate Policy and especially the European Green Deal. Czechs are sceptical about European ability to influence global emissions. The common sentiment is that there is China, the US and India who produce larger amounts of global pollution, and thus even if Europe transformed into a climate-neutral economy, the process of climate change would continue more or less unabated.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

2196. Identifying the EU’s weaknesses in foreign and defence policy: the struggle to become a more effective global actor

Author:
Adrian Blazquez
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Adrian Blazquez's latest policy paper deals with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). More precisely, he focuses on the aspects of unanimous and qualified majority voting, international security commitments, and common strategic culture of the EU. When analysing the influence of the European Union in world politics, some voices argue that the EU often fails to position itself as a relevant and credible player on the international system. This lack of effectiveness in foreign policy stems from two main factors: conflicting national interests and strategic assessments, and the unanimity rule required in Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decisions. The first one is a mantra that reaches its maximum expression with the assumption that Southern countries are concerned about Africa and the Middle East while Eastern countries’ main focus is Russia. Unanimity is a principle that governs decision-making processes in CFSP. While foreign and security policy in the European Union remain an “area of intergovernmental bargaining” instead of one under the control of the supranational model, the forging of an EU strategic culture will be difficult to achieve. The state of play is more that of 27 differentiated strategic cultures with diverging approaches.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

2197. Backsliding of democracy in Slovenia under right-wing populist Janez Janša

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Žiga Faktor examines the backsliding of democracy in Slovenia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, Slovenia experienced a major political shift, as Janez Janša, leader of conservative SDS party, was appointed as a new Prime minister of Slovenia, filling the political vacuum created after a resignation of a former PM Marjan Šarec earlier this year. With Janša’s strong ties to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, his endorsement of right-wing populist rhetoric and ferocious verbal attacks on journalists and established media, many fear that Slovenia’s democratic principles are at stake, while the situation can be further exacerbated by the current state of coronavirus emergency in which the new government can entrench its power.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Populism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Slovenia

2198. European Elections: A Year In Review

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, and Danielle Piatkiewicz
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On the occasion of the anniversary of the ninth European Parliament elections, which took place from 23 to 26 May 2019, experts of EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy prepared five analyses reflecting on the past year in the key areas: climate, multiannual financial framework, migration, geopolitics and European Union enlargement. The experts of EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy weigh in with analyses in their respective fields – climate, multi-annual financial framework, migration, geopolitics and EU enlargement – of the first year since the European elections. It is our hope that this review of the first year of unprecedented upheaval will be an opportunity to reflect both on the past year, but also the challenges of tomorrow.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, European Union, Geopolitics, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2199. EU MONITOR: Czech Perception of the EU Defence Policy

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On May 28th 2017, the German Chancellor surprised the world with a statement calling on Europe to ‘take its fate into own hand’, adding “the era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent”. Pundits perceived her speech as a landmark change in a long-term European defence paradigm. Since the end of the WWII, the European security depended on the United States, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the American defence shield was further broadened to former soviet satellites in Central Europe. However, the last years were marked by a growing rift between the EU and the US. The departure of the UK from the European Union underlined the crisis of European defence structures as the EU would lose a member state with the strongest European army, a seat in Security Council, and large part of its nuclear arsenal. As a result, the European leaders gathered shortly after the Brexit vote in Bratislava and decided they would launch PESCO, a voluntary defence cooperation on project basis. The aim was not only to renew the integrational process after the Brexit blow, but also to strengthen European defence research and provide the EU with missing hard power.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Migration, Public Opinion, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

2200. EU MONITOR: Czechs and the Post-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his latest EU monitor, Vít Havelka examines the attitude of the general Czech public towards the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework. At the beginning of May 2018, the European Commission introduced its proposal of the new Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-27. Since then, the EU member states as well as the European Parliament have been intensively negotiating about each aspect of the Commission´s draft without being able to reach an agreement. Consequently, the talks will slip into 2020, probably being finalized no earlier than summer 2020 during the German presidency of the European Council. The following article is therefore meant to provide the reader with an understanding of what ordinary Czechs think of the MFF negotiations and what should the EU budget finance. The text is predominantly based on standard public opinion poll conducted by STEM Agency in cooperation with EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy in October 2019. The sample consisted of 1002 respondents, combining PAPI and CAPI questioning. The quantitative research was supplemented with qualitative questioning in form of focus groups conducted at the beginning of November 2019.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic