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1191. India’s Options in a Contested Environment: Constraints and Prospects

Author:
Prakash Gopal
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The past year has witnessed tumultuous and unforeseen changes in the global geopolitical landscape due to the pandemic. While India struggles to contain its devastating second wave, it is simultaneously confronted with a significant national security challenge from across the disputed Himalayan border with China. A skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that started in May 2020 escalated rapidly into a full-blown crisis, with clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, causing casualties on both sides. After multiple rounds of talks, the crisis remains unresolved and has starkly exposed India’s lack of credible deterrence that could either deny or punish China’s belligerence across the unsettled border. In response to the border crisis, the Indian government promoted and contributed to the rapid coalescence of the quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad)—a loose coalition of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Notable milestones in the Quad’s accelerated development include the addition of Australia in the Malabar series of naval exercises and several high-level meetings of officials from the four countries, the highest-profile of which being the first leaders’ summit in March 2021. The assumption that India’s sudden moves to consolidate the Quad were driven primarily by Chinese actions along the LAC may be debated. Nevertheless, if that is the case, it follows that India views its renewed efforts in coalition-building as part of a solution to its China problem. Though the Quad may be useful in tackling security threats in the larger Indo-Pacific region, in the near term, it is unlikely to meaningfully contribute to bolstering India’s ability to deter China along land borders or in the maritime domain.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Geopolitics, Borders, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

1192. European Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific amid GreatPower Strategic Competition

Author:
Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
European middle powers are not typically part of U.S. discussions of the Indo-Pacific. However, in an era of growing strategic competition, they are collectively and individually expressing stronger equities in the stability of the region. In May 2021, for example, the United Kingdom’s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth set sail for the first time on a tour that will take it to various locations, including to the Indo-Pacific region. The Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen, as well as a U.S. destroyer and aircraft, are also part of the carrier strike group. Thus, now is a good moment to step back and reflect on the role of European middle powers in the Indo-Pacific amid the backdrop of great-power, strategic competition. The Netherlands, Germany, and France have recently published strategy documents focused on the Indo-Pacific. The Netherlands’ document released in November 2020 discussed concerns about upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in the South China Sea and the need for the European Union to take a more vocal stance on stability in this region. Germany published a similar document in September 2020 in which it emphasized its deep economic interests in the Indo-Pacific “rules-based international order.” Earlier, France led thinking about evolving regional dynamics in 2018. Through the publication of France’s Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and France and Security in the Indo-Pacific documents in 2019, France expressed its concerns about the impact of China’s activities in the East and South China Sea on regional stability. These issues have also been raised through NATO, which has been grappling with the belief that “China does not share our values” and the implications for alliance security and the international rules-based order.
Topic:
Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Indo-Pacific

1193. Follow the Money: Few Federal Grants are Used to Fight Cybercrime

Author:
Michael Garcia
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Like traditional crime, not all cybercrime rises to the level that requires a federal response. And like other crimes, victims will call upon state and local law enforcement to respond.1 They are unprepared. The 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States lack the tools, personnel, and resources to respond to cybercrime effectively. State and locals have turned to federal funding to fill these gaps, but federal government grants do not prioritize combatting cybercrime. The Justice Department (DOJ) has never identified cybercrime as an “Area of Emphasis” for their main criminal justice grant that awards state and local criminal justice agencies $400-$550 million annually.2 And while DOJ and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) provided nearly $2 billion that state and local officials could use for cyber enforcement purposes in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, data from DHS implies that very little is used for cybercrime. Only 2% of all DHS preparedness grant programs were used for all cybersecurity needs in FY 2019.3 Moreover, just three grants in FY 2019 were solely dedicated to cybercrime with a total budget of $12.7 million.4 As a result, only 45% of local law enforcement agencies have access to adequate digital evidence resources, according to one survey. This leads to a backlog of un-analyzed evidence needed to investigate cybercrime and a sense of futility about law enforcement’s ability to close cases.5 While Members of Congress have introduced several bills to create dedicated cybersecurity grant programs for state and local entities, these proposals tend to not include cyber enforcement needs as an eligible expense.6 Moving forward, Congress should: Call on DOJ and DHS to prioritize combatting cybercrime as a main law enforcement issue within their grants. Require prioritization of cyber enforcement needs in grant programs administered by DOJ and DHS in annual appropriations bills; and List cyber enforcement spending as an eligible expense in any bills creating new cybersecurity grant programs for state and local governments.
Topic:
Crime, Law Enforcement, Cybersecurity, Police, Justice, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1194. Psychological Resilience to Extremism and Violent Extremism

Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report provides an overview of the expert roundtable on the topic of psychological resilience to violent extremism held during mid-2021. It summarizes key highlights and recommendations that experts made during the roundtable. The roundtable identified relevant psychological factors that increase individual resilience to extremism and violent extremism, provided practical recommendations for cognitive and behavioral skills among topics.
Topic:
International Security, Violent Extremism, Psychology, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1195. A Movement Between Parliamentary Politics and the Pathway to Violence and Terrorism: Germany’s Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives

Author:
Maximilian Kreter
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Maximilian Kreter, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Far Right, Radical Right, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

1196. Providing Support to Children and Youth Vulnerable to or Affected by Radicalization Leading to Violent Extremism (RLVE)

Author:
Julien Domergue and Cristina Mattei
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report summarizes the results of Hedayah’s capacity building program Providing Support to Children and Youth Vulnerable to or Affected by Radicalization Leading to Violent Extremism (RLVE) conducted under the guidance of the National Counter Terrorism Commission of Tunisia between January 2019 and November 2019. Since 2018, Hedayah has been training educators, psychologists and social workers across Tunisia to ensure they are better equipped to support the effective reintegration of youth and children affected by radicalization leading to violent extremism.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Youth, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Tunisia

1197. Radical Right Narratives and Norwegian Counter-narratives in the Decade of Utøya and Bærum Solo-actor Attacks

Author:
Mette Wiggen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Dr. Mette Wiggen, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Political Extremism, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

1198. Rebuilding the Midwest's infrastructure: Driving equitable economic recovery in a world reshaped by COVID-19

Author:
John Austin and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
In the midst of a national discussion about the need to update our infrastructure, the Midwest is primed for a new round of investment. The agenda for the country and for the Midwest must reflect the realities of an economy and society shaped by longstanding structural, economic, racial, and geographic inequities, accentuated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, this moment offers a clear opportunity to ensure that a new infrastructure development plan capitalizes on the unique assets and economic opportunities inherent to each region to accelerate economic growth and spread its benefits to more people and places. In the Midwest, this agenda includes several core components. It must adapt to the economic realities of the post-COVID-19 world. It must also contribute to innovation in a host of sectors—from manufacturing to product-delivery systems to health care—while enhancing the ability to organize state- and local-level infrastructure initiatives. Finally, it must dovetail with the urgent need and newfound political will to close gaps in equity and opportunity based on race, income, and geography.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1199. Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America's Allies

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder, Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
In recent decades, the threat of nuclear proliferation has emanated primarily from the Middle East and from south and northeast Asia. But the proliferation threat wasn’t always concentrated in these regions. Long before countries like North Korea and Iran topped the list of nuclear threats, leaders in Washington and elsewhere worried about a different group of countries—America’s allies in Europe and Asia. Indeed, in the early 1960s, intelligence officials projected that by the mid-1970s there likely would be 10 to 15 nuclear powers in the world within a decade, as countries like Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey would opt to join a growing nuclear club. The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 was designed to prevent this, and it did. But it succeeded in large part because of a concerted US effort since the 1960s to reassure its allies around the world that America’s nuclear umbrella would extend to their territory and ensure their security. Rather than developing their own national nuclear capabilities, key allies in Europe and Asia opted to rely on the US nuclear guarantee instead. Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, just four countries (India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea) have acquired nuclear weapons. More recently, however, questions about the credibility of the American nuclear guarantee have arisen again in Europe and Asia. Allies in both regions confront growing military threats from a resurgent Russia, a rising China, and a nuclear North Korea. At the same time, successive US administrations have sought to retreat from some longstanding commitments, leaving America’s allies around the world uncertain whether they can still rely on the United States for their defense and security—nuclear and otherwise. So far, the discussions about nuclear deterrence and reassurance have played out largely beyond public view. But the issue is becoming increasingly salient, given growing threats from Russia and China especially, and growing doubts about the United States. America and its allies cannot ignore this new reality. For if we are to prevent new nuclear proliferation among these allies, it is essential to acknowledge that what has long been unthinkable is becoming thinkable once more.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

1200. In Russia, Navalny Inspires Respect for Some, Indifference for Most

Author:
Dina Smeltz, Brendan Helm, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been sentenced to three and a half years in prison after he returned to Russia from Germany, where he was being treated for exposure to a nerve agent in August 2020. An investigation into the poisoning, conducted with the help of Navalny, has implicated Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). Following Navalny’s arrest and the release of a separate investigation into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wealth conducted by Navalny, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets across the country to march in support for the jailed Navalny. They were met by a heavy show of force from Russian riot police that included batons, shields, and thousands of arrests. This repressive response prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to condemn “the persistent use of harsh tactics against peaceful protesters and journalists.” Navalny has inspired popular protests and gathered a large international following. But recent surveys by the Levada Analytical Center, including one in partnership with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, show that the overall Russian population is generally indifferent to his actions, and more suspect that he staged his own poisoning or it was a “provocation from the West” than believe the Russian government targeted him.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Public Opinion, Internet, and Survey
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia