Content Type: Special Report - CIAO Search Results

1001. Reframing International Relations and Development (Syllabus Resource)

Author:: Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on reframing international relations, development, and related fields, written by diverse scholars and experts Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of reframing international relations, development, and related fields.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1002. Women’s Empowerment as a Path to Peace Understanding the Relationship between Gender Equality and Organized Violence

Author:: Jeni Klugman, Robert Nagel, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: This study explores the relationship between gender inequality and violent conflict at a societal level. The results reveal that narrowing of gender gaps in education, employment, financial inclusion, and political participation, as well as reduced rates of adolescent fertility and intimate partner violence, are significantly associated with lower levels of organized violence. This suggests that advancing gender equality and empowering women and girls not only supports fundamental human rights but builds a solid foundation for a more peaceful world. This study updates and deepens existing research on several fronts. Building on the approach laid out in our Women, Peace, and Security Index, we propose a model that connects three dimensions of gender inequality—the lack of inclusion, justice and security for women—with the intensity of conflict. We develop gender inequality measures for each dimension as proxies of socially constructed gender roles and associated power differentials, taking advantage of improvements in the availability of global data over the past decade. We examine the years 2000–2014, with a measure of organized violence as the outcome variable, against our set of gender inequality measures. Our investigation calculates and compares estimates obtained from fixed as well as random effects models. Unlike some other factors associated with conflict, such as conflict history or mountainous terrain, we know that effectively addressing gender inequality is feasible with deliberate and sustained policy action.
Topic:: Women, Conflict, Violence, Peace, Equality, Empowerment, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1003. Lessons Across Borders: Women’s Entrepreneurship in the U.S. and China

Author:: Yvonne Quek and Emma Crawford
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In both the United States and China, thousands of women are becoming entrepreneurs. Over the past 20 years, the number of women-owned businesses in the United States has grown 114 percent. Similarly, the All-China Women’s Federation reports that women accounted for one-quarter of total China-based entrepreneurs as of 2017. The upward trends in both countries underscore the growing economic opportunities for women in the entrepreneurial ecosystem, especially in the rapidly growing technology industry. However, despite the availability of national data highlighting these trends, we know little about the patterns of opportunities and challenges faced by women entrepreneurs, specifically those in tech. This report, produced in collaboration with The Mulan Foundation, seeks to address this gap by examining the key challenges faced by female founders in tech in the United States and China. Part I investigates these trends by synthesizing and sharing insights from 330 survey respondents across both countries, comparing the opportunities and challenges faced by women tech entrepreneurs in each economy. Part II then dives deep into the U.S. perspective, analyzing the survey responses from American women entrepreneurs in the tech sector and drawing from in-depth profiles of 17 individual founders. Their diverse experiences offer lessons for other women entrepreneurs. Our findings in both countries suggest that limited access to capital and networks are key challenges faced by female entrepreneurs in tech. In addition, gender bias and stereotypes inhibit growth opportunities for women-founded businesses. This report provides recommendations for how to support women entrepreneurs in technology, and it highlights opportunities for women founders and aspiring entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Women, Entrepreneurship, Business, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1004. The Climate-Gender-Conflict Nexus: Amplifying Women's Contributions at the Grassroots

Author:: Jessica Smith, Lauren Olosky, and Leonel Fernández
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Climate change is widely and increasingly recognized as a “threat multiplier” that can contribute to heightened fragility. But, conflict is not inevitable. Women at the grassroots are uniquely positioned to contribute to sustainable natural resource management, climate-resilient communities, and enhanced peace and stability. For policymakers and practitioners, promoting women’s contributions can accelerate gains across peace, conservation, and sustainability. Chapter 1 of the report explores the linkages between climate change and conflict and how gender is a cross-cutting lens through which people experience both issues. Chapter 2 investigates the gaps in frameworks, policy, knowledge, and evidence within the climate-gender-conflict nexus. It outlines that while commitments and action continue to advance gender equality globally, policymakers and practitioners are siloed in their respective climate, gender, and security spheres. Chapter 3 studies how the dynamics of climate change and conflict are unfolding in Colombia, Sudan, and Nepal and how in each case, women are contributing to enhanced peace and sustainability in their local communities despite gendered obstacles. The final chapter of the report is a real-time call for policymakers and practitioners to invest in research and policy within the climate-gender-conflict nexus and address five priority areas of action: Buffer the disproportionate vulnerabilities women bear from climate change impacts. Center women as crucial actors in climate, peace, and security. Strengthen linkages between the different levels and sectors in the climate-gender-conflict nexus. Address knowledge gaps within the nexus. Promote women’s leadership in climate-related conflict mitigation and prevention and reduce barriers to inclusion.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Conflict, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1005. Can the Women, Peace and Security Agenda and International Humanitarian Law Join Forces? Emerging findings and promising directions

Author:: Jeni Klugman, Robert U. Nagel, Mara Revkin, and Orly Maya Stern
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: This report explores overlaps and synergies between International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda, specifically the protection and participation pillars of WPS. A summary of initial findings was presented in a policy brief of the same name in December 2020: Can the Women, Peace and Security Agenda and International Humanitarian Law Join Forces? (Policy Brief). IHL is the body of law that governs armed conflict. It is designed to protect combatants and civilians of all genders by restricting the means and methods of warfare. Although IHL has a track record of meaningfully protecting the rights of people in conflict-affected areas over the past five decades, there are notable shortcomings and blind spots in its ability to address the gendered dimensions of conflict. While the authors of the report do not advocate for the merging of these two agendas, they argue that there is potential to broaden the focus of the WPS protection pillar to ensure women and girls are safe from all forms of violence, and to use IHL to add legal force to the WPS agenda. Three case studies on the militaries of South Africa, Israel, and the United States highlight progress and challenges around WPS implementation and IHL compliance. South Africa is a case in which the military is engaged in peacekeeping operations, with frequent allegations made against it of sexual assault against civilians. The United States is a case in which women’s participation in combat roles has increased significantly in recent years, as well as one in which soldiers are deployed in nonconflict situations (such as partner military training missions and black-site prison facilities) where IHL does not formally apply. Israel has the largest rate of women’s participation of any state military in the world. These cases demonstrate persistent shortcomings but also crucial opportunities to better leverage WPS to promote IHL compliance and improve women’s protection. This research paper is the second in a series of outputs of a research program on the synergies between IHL and WPS at the Georgetown Institute of Women, Peace and Security with support from the Government of Liechtenstein.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Israel, South Africa, and United States of America

1006. Transnational Threats (Syllabus Resource)

Author:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Climate Change and Environment, Displacement, Energy Policy and Security, Global Health Security and Pandemics, Globalization and Demographic Trends, Water Politics and Water Scarcity. Scholarly writing on transnational threats written by diverse scholars and experts. Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives. Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of transnational threats.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Water, Displacement, Pandemic, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1007. IR Theories (Syllabus Resource)

Author:: Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: The following is material to consider for your syllabus related to: Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Feminism, Postcolonialism. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on IR theories written by diverse scholars and experts. Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives. Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity, and inclusion-related dimensions of IR theories.
Topic:: International Relations, Education, Post Colonialism, Realism, International Relations Theory, Feminism, Constructivism, Liberalism, and Syllabus
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1008. Kosovo’s regional cooperation and EU Integration - Kosovo citizen’s perspective

Author:: Plator Avdiu and Mentor Vrajolli
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: In its tenth edition, KSB has taken a regional dimension and marks the first edition of the Western Balkans Security Barometer (WBSB) implemented simultaneously in Kosovo and Serbia in September-October 2020. 1 This report examines the perceptions of Kosovar respondents on the following issues: i) Kosovo’s bilateral cooperation, cross-border cooperation and regional security, and ii) attitudes of Kosovars towards the EU membership process.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

1009. Community perceptions on violent extremism and repatriation of Kosovo Citizens' from ISIS battlegrounds

Author:: Skender Perteshi and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This report provides an overview of Kosovo citizens’ perceptions on violent extremism. The report specifically focuses on their views on the repatriation of Kosovo citizens from the battlegrounds of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, as well as the citizens’ perception on the efforts of institutions and CSOs in regard to the reintegration and rehabilitation of the returnees and their families. The report, presenting both qualitative and quantitative analyses, provides first-hand insights gathered on the ground through extensive research of KCSS. The key data that shape the qualitative aspect of the report derive from the discussions with local communities in eight municipalities of Kosovo, organized by KCSS within the project Building Resilience: Communities against Violent Extremism. On the other hand, the quantitative results derive from the Kosovo Security Barometer (KSB), a KCSS program that measures public opinion on various security issues.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Repatriation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Syria

1010. Between denial and respond: Citizens' perceptions on Kosovo Institutions dealing with COVID-19

Author:: Plator Avdiu
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: First section of the report presents perceptions whether Kosovar respondents believe on the existence of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also interprets perceptions on how the Kosovo institutions handled the COVID-19 situation in Kosovo from March – September 2020. The second section is related to the degree the COVID-19 has impacted everyday life of citizens from socio-economic to human rights points of view. Whilst, the third section of the report highlights perceptions on political influence of foreign countries/organisations towards Kosovo on handling the COVID-19 as well as their financial and humanitarian aid donated to Kosovo amidst the coronavirus crisis in Kosovo.
Topic:: Human Rights, Public Opinion, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

1011. Kosovo Security Barometer Special Edition on Corruption, Rule of Law and Police integrity in Kosovo

Author:: Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The first section introduces the level of trust expressed by respondents on the relevant institutions (justice, security and municipal institutions), as well as the direct contact of the surveyed respondents with these institutions during 2018. Similar to previous years, security institutions are leading when it comes to public trust when compared to other institutions analysed in this special edition. The second section of the report interprets key security threats and risks in Kosovo. Given that corruption has been ranked as the highest problem to Kosovo’s national security, this section is focused on views of respondents towards corruption in the relevant institutions. Apart from general interpretation of data on corruption in Courts, Prosecution, Kosovo Police and Municipalities, the report offers cross-tabulated data analysis based on regions, rural/urban areas, gender balance, and ethnic composition of respondents for all targeted institutions. While, the third or final section of the report provides a detailed interpretation of open-ended and closed-ended questions of the 2018 survey of Kosovo Security Barometer on main issues harming police integrity in Kosovo. Accordingly, results presenting opinions of respondents on corruption within sectors of the Kosovo Police mirror a better understanding on what are the most and the least corrupted police sectors in Kosovo. Furthermore, data analysis through cross-tabulated results (based on regions, areas, gender balance, and ethnic background) provides an exhaustive elaboration of respondents’ attitudes towards police corruption in Kosovo. Given that the Kosovo Security Barometer’s survey was conducted in the second half of 2018 (September-October 2018), thus it does not reflect some of the developments that have occurred from November 2018 to March 2019.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Rule of Law, and Police
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

1012. Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review

Author:: George Perkovich and Pranay Vaddi
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Ever since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, every U.S. presidential administration has published a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that explains the rationales behind its nuclear strategy, doctrine, and requested forces. These reviews have helped inform U.S. government personnel, citizens, allies, and adversaries of the country’s intentions and planned capabilities for conducting nuclear deterrence and, if necessary, war. The administration that takes office in January 2021 may or may not conduct a new NPR, but it will assess and update nuclear policies as part of its overall recalibration of national security strategy and policies. Nongovernmental analysts can contribute to sound policymaking by being less constrained than officials often are in exploring the difficulties of achieving nuclear deterrence with prudently tolerable risks. Accordingly, the review envisioned and summarized here explicitly elucidates the dilemmas, uncertainties, and tradeoffs that come with current and possible alternative nuclear policies and forces. In the body of this review, we analyze extant declaratory policy, unclassified employment policy, and plans for offensive and defensive force postures, and then propose changes to several of them. We also will emphasize the need for innovative approaches to arms control.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1013. Cybersecurity in Brazil: an analysis of the national strategy

Author:: Louise Marie Hurel
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: n February 2020, the Decree 10.222 established Brazil’s National Cybersecurity Strategy (E-Ciber) — the first official document to provide an overview regarding Brazil’s role in cybersecurity, as well as objectives and guiding principles for its development between 2020 and 2023. With the Covid-19 pandemic, thousands of people, governmental agencies, and businesses have rapidly adapted their activities to a largely virtual environment. This sudden migration led to new threats and attack surfaces for exploiting vulnerabilities. More than ever, different sectors must be prepared and trained to respond to and resist these threats. However, this was precisely the period in which Brazil suffered the worst cyber attack in its history – highlighting, yet again, that many challenges remain for ensuring that concerns with security turn into action across different sectors. This strategic paper identifies the main gaps and challenges for cybersecurity governance in Brazil. We unpack the main elements of E-Ciber in order to understand and place the country’s strategic vision historically as well as in relation to other international experiences. We adopt a principles-based approach that seeks to strengthen and inform the implementation of strategic cybersecurity objectives in Brazil, which include: national and international coordination and cooperation; knowledge integration; sustainability of efforts; and cybersecurity-related training.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, Digital Policy, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

1014. Illegal Gold That Undermines Forests and Lives in the Amazon: An Overview of Irregular Mining and its Impacts on Indigenous Populations

Author:: Melina Risso, Julia Sekula, Lycia Brasil, Peter Schmidt, and Maria Eduarda Pessoa de Assis
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Brazilian Amazon is rife with illegal gold mining operations, with 321 identified points of illegal, active and inactive mines arranged in the 9 states that comprise the Brazilian Amazon Basin. This devastation has a price — according to Brazil’s Federal Public Prosecutors Office, 1kg of gold represents roughly R$1.7m in environmental damages, culminating in an environmental cost roughly 10 times greater than the current price of gold. The Amazon is nearing its critical ‘tipping point’, beyond which both the Amazon biome and our global climate will suffer irreversible damages. As such, discussions on illegal mining in the Brazilian Amazon present two interrelated challenges: combating deforestation and protecting the distinct cultures of indigenous populations, who constitute the forests’ principal environmental defenders. Considering the urgency of the discussion, the Igarapé Institute launches the publication Illegal Gold That Undermines Forests and Lives in the Amazon: An Overview of Irregular Mining and its Impacts on Indigenous Populations. The article presents urgent recommendations, in the short and long term, to avoid an irreversible climatic collapse, in which the preservation of the Amazon rainforest plays a fundamental role.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Culture, Mining, Indigenous, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

1015. The Civic Space GPS

Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The civic space - the sphere between business, the State, and family where citizens organize, debate, and act to influence public policy and the general direction of the country — is under attack. Attacks against civic space constitute a threat to transparency, to the freedoms of expression, assembly, and protest, and to civil and political rights. They are in direct conflict with the rights and freedoms guaranteed in the Brazilian Constitution and in countless international conventions and treaties. And they are a grave threat to democracy itself. The closure of civic space is not exclusive to Brazil. However, deliberate attempts to diminish it are becoming increasingly common in the country. This is why the Igarapé Institute is launching the “the Civic Space GPS”, a quarterly analysis dedicated to monitor attacks, acts of resistance led by State institutions, as well as reactions from civil society. It considers the typology created by the Igarapé Institute to describe the different strategies and tactics used to close the civic space and described in the Strategic Paper 49: “The ‘Agora’ is Under Attack: assessing the closure of civic space in Brazil and Around the World”.
Topic:: Democracy, Business, Freedom of Expression, State, Family, Political Rights, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

1016. Climate change and security in West Africa

Author:: Peter Schmidt and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that climate change will generate alarming consequences for West Africa. A rise in global temperature between 3°C to 6°C by the end of the century (or earlier) is associated with greater irregularity in rainfall, and a delay in the beginning of the rainy season. Another risk involves higher frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, rainstorms, and flooding. According to some models, sea levels could rise by more than 75cm on average by the end of the century, forcing hundreds of millions of people to move, mostly within their own countries, and often to cities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and International Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and West Africa

1017. Locating Peace within the Justice Agenda: The Case of the African Union Transitional Justice Policy

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This paper discusses the African Union Transitional Justice Policy as a case study that locates peace within the justice agenda in Africa, drawing from the rich, three-decade-long practice and experience of transitional justice processes on the continent to guide and inform future processes. It discusses the parameters set by the policy within which peace and justice processes can co-exist and be pursued in transitional justice through timing and sequencing. The paper also analyses the benchmarks of success for peace processes, making use of African examples and offering recommendations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Transitional Justice, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:: Africa and African Union

1018. Supercharged: The EuroAsia Interconnector and Israel’s Pursuit of Energy Interdependence

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Contemporary analysis of Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics tends to focus on the discovery of offshore hydrocarbons, and how a desire to maximize commercial profits has spurred a realignment of regional interests. There is similar emphasis on how this realignment pushed some Eastern Mediterranean states into conflict with one another over maritime boundaries and drilling rights. But while natural gas pipelines may dominate political and analytical discourse, there are other infrastructure projects that deserve attention and shed further light on the region’s evolution and Israel’s role in this transitionary period. One example to support this claim is the EuroAsia Interconnector, an ambitious infrastructure project that intends to connect the European electrical grid via undersea cable from Greece to Cyprus, and Israel. Few in Israel are familiar with the interconnector. Unlike the much-publicized EastMed pipeline, the interconnector garners little attention. Ironically, there is a greater chance that the interconnector – whose cable would run along a similar route as the EastMed pipeline – will successfully link Israel and Europe in the Eastern Mediterranean, and not the more recognizable natural gas project.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Palestine, and Mediterranean

1019. The First Months of Israel-UAE Peace: Israel’s Perspective on the Abraham Accords

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: In the few months that have passed since the signing of the historical Abraham Accords, Israel and the UAE have opened embassies and exchanged ambassadors, launched direct flights between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, hosted dozens of businesses, cultural and academic delegations (among them a high-ranking Emirati delegation led by the UAE ministers of finance and economy), and facilitated visits of thousands of Israeli tourists to Dubai. Universities and think tanks from both countries have established connections, and news outlets have launched different forms of cooperation. Israel, the UAE, and the US set an investment fund worth 3 billion USD (the fund is not operational yet) and banks on both sides established agreements on financial services. The scope of activity between the two countries is impressive, and it seems that in case of Israel and the UAE, the seeds of peace have fallen on fertile ground, mainly due to high level of economic development and mutual geopolitical interests and concerns, such as the Iranian threat (although both sides evaluate and treat it differently).Today, it is almost impossible to imagine that just a few years ago Israeli athletes were only allowed to compete in the UAE if they agreed to participate without their national flag or national anthem sung at the closing ceremony. Why is it that the peace between Israel and the UAE appears to be such a stark contrast from previous peace agreements that Israel has signed with other Arab countries? Several factors have facilitated the newly established relationship: the positive image of the UAE in Israel; the lack of past hostilities, casualties, and territorial demands between the two countries; the unofficial ties forged long before the official recognition; the many mutual interests that seem to be aligned together; and the right timing that allowed for this bold and important development. Will the parties be able to maintain a similar level of enthusiasm also when the honeymoon stage passes? How will the two countries deal with various regional and international challenges? This paper presents an Israeli perspective on the first months of the relationship between Israel and UAE, and looks at prospects for the near future of these relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and UAE

1020. Online Warfare: Russian Policy on International Information Security

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia in April this year updated its policy on international information security (IIS). Compared to the previous version of the document from 2013, Russia points to the possibility of an inter-state conflict as a result of activities in cyberspace. Russia also promotes the concept of “sovereign internet” and aims to increase its influence in the field of global regulations concerning the development of the network. The publication of the document confirms the priority for information security in the national security strategy and in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, Internet, Non-Traditional Threats, Information Technology, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

1021. U.S. Economic Challenges for the Biden Administration

Author:: Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The U.S. economy is emerging from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain growth and at the same time achieve climate and technology goals, the Biden administration is pushing large socio-economic programmes. To pass them in Congress, the administration will be forced to reach compromises with factions within the Democratic Party. Biden also will need some Republican support. In foreign policy, these programmes aim to strengthen the U.S. position in its rivalry with China, something that also opens greater possibilities for closer cooperation with the EU.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, COVID-19, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

1022. A Vision of the Future: The U.S. Intelligence Report “Global Trends 2040”

Author:: Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community published the extensive report “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”. It analyses the main demographic, political, and strategic trends that will likely shape the world for the next two decades. The report will be intensively used by the Biden administration in the preparation of the new U.S. National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, as well as in new military doctrines. The “Global Trends” document reflects the main tendencies in American strategic thinking, such as the growing “Sinocentrism” and traditional U.S. attachment to transatlantic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Intelligence, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1023. Strengthening the EU’s Role in Cybersecurity

Author:: Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The ongoing pandemic has increased the use of digital technologies and intensified the threats they pose. Therefore, the EU faces the need to strengthen its ability to detect and respond to hostile cyber activities. New initiatives should, above all, improve the cooperation of EU institutions with Member States and private entities. However, their effectiveness will be limited by low and dispersed financing.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Europe

1024. EU Proposes Artificial Intelligence Regulation

Author:: Oskar Szydłowski and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The proposed regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) on the EU market is primarily intended to protect fundamental rights and values. As the first regulation of this type in the world, it may set the standard. However, the new requirements in practice might hinder the access of foreign entities to the internal market and reduce the competitiveness of EU businesses.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

1025. Israel Escalates Actions Towards Iran

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since last year, Israel has increased its operations against Iran’s nuclear programme. The actions corresponded to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. Currently, the Israeli actions are an attempt to put pressure on the negotiations launched by the U.S. and Iran to restore the nuclear agreement. Israel opposes those talks, but further escalation will be limited by the stance of the Biden administration.
Topic:: Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Joe Biden, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

1026. Prospects for the Reconstruction of Lebanon

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of March, Lebanese President Michel Aoun rejected a proposal by designated Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri regarding the composition of the new government. The breakdown of the negotiations shows that despite the deepening socio-economic crisis, political groups are unable to develop a common vision for the reconstruction of the state. The EU, UN, and the World Bank engaged in initiatives aiming to improve Lebanon’s situation. However, the political deadlock threatens the implementation of their co-created “3RF” reform plan.
Topic:: United Nations, World Bank, European Union, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1027. Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner and Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Taking advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Russia intends to strengthen its influence in that country by increasing contacts with the Afghan government and the Taliban. The aim is to become a key mediator in the peace process, which will enable it to influence the participants, increase control over the situation in Afghanistan, and use it in relations with the countries of the region. Russia’s policy may make the stabilisation of Afghanistan more difficult and undermine the effects of the efforts made by NATO countries during the stabilisation mission.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, and Eurasia

1028. The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Crisis Management, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1029. Developments in U.S. Defence Spending: Implications for NATO

Author:: Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: After a few years of increases, U.S. defence spending is likely to stagnate. At the same time, the needs related to the U.S. priority of deterring China will grow. The effect will be that the U.S. will continue to call for a greater contribution of NATO members to their own defence, even given the softening of transatlantic tensions and positive signals regarding the U.S. military presence in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Military Spending, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

1030. The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, Genocide, Human Rights, European Union, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Asia, Netherlands, United States of America, and Xinjiang

1031. Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, European Union, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and Central Europe

1032. Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner

Author:: Karol Wasilewski
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU intends to implement a new model of relations with Turkey based on phased, proportional, and reversible engagement. The Union’s plans are a consequence of a dilemma: although Turkey often acts like an adversary, EU members want to maintain close relations with it due to the convergence of interests in areas such as migration and the economy. The Union’s new approach creates the opportunity to strengthen its influence on Turkey. Yet, different expectations about the future shape of relations will keep EU-Turkey relations tense.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

1033. A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France

Author:: Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: France uses the idea of EU strategic autonomy as a tool in its own foreign policy. France’s aim is to redefine the Union’s partnership with the U.S. and NATO. Hence, the activity of President Emmanuel Macron in emphasising the differences between the positions of the U.S. and the EU, especially in relations with China and Russia. Macron’s rhetoric worries other European countries and hides the real problems in EU security policy, such as insufficient financing of the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as the lack of a clear definition of strategic autonomy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, France, and United States of America

1034. Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany

Author:: Adam S. Czartoryski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Austria

1035. The Future of Russia’s Sovereign Internet

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: So-called “sovereign internets”, which are networks cut off from the global internet, is attractive to authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran. Russia declares that it has achieved the technical capacity to implement it, which would allow the Russian authorities more control over society but could cause problems for business. The Russian authorities therefore will limit its use to a preventive measure at key moments and for blocking foreign networks and communicators inside Russia to try to control public moods in the country.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Internet, Networks, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia

1036. The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations

Author:: Andrzej Dąbrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Eurasia, North America, Belarus, and United States of America

1037. The Prospects for Changes in U.S. Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Biden administration will seek to rebuild the U.S. reputation and influence in Latin America. It will strengthen cooperation with Latin American partners in the field of climate change and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, among others. The pandemic and its socio-economic impacts will increase the scale of the challenges facing the U.S. in its relations with Latin America, including in migration and development cooperation. The Biden administration’s approach to the region may facilitate the U.S.-EU dialogue, for example, on efforts to overcome the political and humanitarian crises in Venezuela.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

1038. The EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime: Prospects and Challenges

Author:: Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The European “Magnitsky Act” adopted by the EU is a political signal that the Union wants to protect human rights in the world more effectively. It fixes the scope of sanctions application in this field, but it does not fundamentally change existing EU practices. Still, the challenges lie in the adoption of sanctions listings by a unanimous decision of the Member States and their subsequent effective implementation. The new system will be used for the first time to impose restrictions on those responsible for the detention of Alexei Navalny in Russia. It may also be used in cases of human rights violations in China or on the territory of conflict areas in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sanctions, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

1039. Vaccine Passports and Freedom of Movement in the EU

Author:: Adam Szymański
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Together with the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccination process in the European Union, the preparations of a common Community-wide immunity certificate began. The guidelines adopted at the end of January cover the medical requirements for this health certificate, however, many countries would like to extend their use for travel within the EU/Schengen area. This could contribute to the revival of tourism in Europe, although it is difficult to implement without affecting the freedom of movement.
Topic:: Tourism, European Union, Vaccine, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:: Europe

1040. Belarus: Half a Year of Protests

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since the rigged presidential elections in August 2020, the public protests against Alexander Lukashenka have continued. The Belarusian authorities have responded with repression, detaining protesters and independent journalists. Despite Lukashenka’s calls to reform the constitution, he also tries to postpone this process. The European Union should increase its support to civil society and keep demanding the Belarusian authorities respect human rights.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, European Union, and Protests
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Belarus

1041. NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

1042. The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Benjamin Netanyahu, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gulf Nations

1043. Towards Authoritarianism: Kyrgyzstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy Perspectives

Author:: Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Sadyr Japarov, the leader of the autumn protests that led to the removal from power of the previous president, Soronbai Jeenbekov, won the early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 January. In a parallel consultative referendum, voters supported the change of the state system to the presidential system proposed by Japarov, which includes the liquidation of parliament. One consequence may be the evolution of the political system of Kyrgyzstan towards an authoritarian model similar to those in other Central Asian countries. That would have a negative impact on relations with the EU, which supports democratic reforms in Kyrgyzstan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Referendum
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

1044. Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1045. Framing Violence: US and Chinese State-Funded News Outlets during the Hong Kong Protests

Author:: Hanmin Kim
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: State-funded news media outlets and the ways in which they convey the messages of government and government-affiliated officials represent an essential but under-emphasized area of study in the realm of international diplomacy. Through a case study of the Hong Kong protests of 2019, this paper draws on theories from journalism and public diplomacy to analyze articles by state-funded media covering the unrest. This paper argues that the state-funded news outlets of the US and China used the same frame—violence and conflict—but approached the Hong Kong protests differently. Using this frame, state media outlets made themselves channels for government officials during the US-China rivalry, but made different arguments regarding the violence that occurred there. While US government-funded media focused on the violence of the Hong Kong Police Force as a danger to the territory’s democracy, Chinese state media emphasized the violence of the Hong Kong protestors as a danger to national security.
Topic:: Government, Communications, Media, Protests, and Journalism
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Hong Kong

1046. Abe Shinzo: Diplomat-in-Chief

Author:: Yuki Tatsumi
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Abe Shinzo is the longest-serving prime minister in post-World War II Japan. Having occupied the office since December 2012, Abe has attempted to leverage his stable tenure to increase Japan’s international presence. In particular, Abe has tried to reshape the way Japan conducts its foreign policy, from being responsive to proactive. “A proactive contribution to peace with international principle” or chikyushugi o fukansuru gaiko (diplomacy that takes a panoramic view of the world map) symbolizes his government’s approach, part of an earnest attempt to remain relevant on the international scene even as the country grapples with irreversible trends including population decline and aging.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

1047. China After Covid-19: Economic Revival and Challenges to the World

Author:: Alessia Amighini, Yukon Huang, Tyson Barker, Eduardo Missoni, Giulia Sciorati, Haihong Gao, Elisa Sales, Maximilian Kärnfelt, and Paola Magri
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic that has rocked China since December 2019 has posed a gruelling test for the resilience of the country’s national economy. Now, as China emerges from its Covid-induced "recession", it feels like the worst is behind it. How did China manage to come out almost unscathed from the worst crisis in over a century? This Report examines how China designed and implemented its post-Covid recovery strategy, focussing on both the internal and external challenges the country had to face over the short- and medium-run. The book offers a comprehensive argument suggesting that, despite China having lost economic and political capital during the crisis, Beijing seems to have been strengthened by the “pandemic test”, thus becoming an even more challenging “partner, competitor and rival” for Western countries.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Economy, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

1048. Post-Pandemic Asia: A New Normal for Regional Security?

Author:: Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In 2020, the way we define “insecurity” has drastically changed. Insecurity can now also be invisible and all around us, in the shape of a virus that disrupts people’s lives, upends the economy, subverts the core functions of national governments and jeopardises the foundations of international cooperation. At the same time, the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic has not made traditional security challenges disappear, especially in and around Asia. This Report presents short- and long-term scenarios for each of the hotspots that challenge peace and stability in Asia, a region that, after the pandemic, has become even more crucial for a swift global recovery.
Topic:: Security, Political stability, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia

1049. The Pandemic in the Balkans: Geopolitics and Democracy at Stake

Author:: Giorgio Fruscione, Michael L. Giffoni, Gentiola Madhi, Chiara Milan, Jovana Marovic, Giorgio Fruscione, and Nikolaos Tzifakis
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: One year after it landed in Europe, the Covid-19 pandemic has left a deep mark on the Western Balkans. On the one hand, it has exacerbated geopolitical dynamics that had been ongoing for decades, especially with regards to the activity of external actors. And while the EU has continued to be inconclusive, proceeding at a snail’s pace with its carrot-and-stick approach, China has seized on the opportunity and expanded its footprint. On the other hand, the pandemic has had deep consequences on domestic politics, too. The two keywords explaining local trends are continuity and new hopes. They are both shaping the speed and direction of democratic transitions or consolidations, which remain far from complete. How has the geopolitical competition among big powers evolved in the Balkans over the last year? What have been the effects of the pandemic on local democratic standards? Is there room for new hopes in terms of regime change and citizen participation?
Topic:: Democracy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

1050. Russia’s Foreign Policy: The Internal-International Link

Author:: Aldo Ferrari, Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, Maxim Matusevich, Marianne Belenkaya, Andrei Kolesnikov, Alicja Curanović, Alexander Graef, and Paola Magri
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: What drives Russia’s foreign policy in Vladimir Putin’s times? Why did the Kremlin decide to annex Crimea, occupy South Ossetia, intervene in Syria, or give its blessing to Nord Stream II? When explaining Russia’s foreign policy, the consolidation of Putin’s autocratic tendencies and his apparent stability despite many economic and political challenges have contributed – at least in the West – to an excessive “Putin-centrism” and the relative neglect of other agents of domestic politics. As a result, many facets of the country’s foreign policy decisions are misunderstood or shrouded under a thin veil of vagueness and secrecy. This Report attempts to fill this gap, exploring the evolving distribution of political and economic power under the surface of Putin’s leadership to assess the influence of different “lobbies” on Russia’s foreign policy. Who decides what in Moscow? The answer, unsurprisingly, is not always “Vladimir Putin”. All of the contributions in the volume underline the complexity of Russia’s decision-making process beneath the surface of a monolithic and increasingly personalistic government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Eurasia

1051. Human Fraternity and Inclusive Citizenship: Interreligious Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:: Fabio Petito, Fadi Daou, Michael Driessen, Elie Al-Hindy, Georges Fahmi, Nejja Al-Ourimi, Silvio Ferrari, Mohammed Hashas, Scott M. Thomas, Pasquale Ferrara, R. Scott Appleby, Miguel Angel Moratinos, Alberto Melloni, Azza Karam, Paul Gallagher, Nayla Tabbara, Mohamed Abdel-Salam, Andre Azoulay, and Jean-Marc Aveline
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Polarization and discrimination linked to religion have been increasing in many parts of the world, including on the two shores of the Mediterranean. Against this background, however, seeds of hope have emerged from a number of religious leaders who have called for a new narrative of human fraternity and inclusive citizenship. This report analyzes the opportunities which human fraternity and inclusive citizenship offer for government-religious partnerships aimed at building more inclusive and peaceful societies across both shores of the Mediterranean and puts forward interreligious engagement as a new policy framework that recognizes and amplifies these novel dynamics. Can the interreligious narrative of human fraternity help to create new inclusive forms of citizenship? How can governments and international organizations better partner with religious leaders and communities to concretely build inclusive societies from the MENA region to Europe?
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Refugees, Citizenship, Pluralism, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

1052. Strategic Annual Report 2020

Author:: Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The year 2020 was characterized by the intensification of US-China confrontation and strategic competition, which had been pointed out in the Strategic Annual Report 2019, in all areas from military and security affairs as well as dominance in advanced technologies and supply chains to narratives on coronavirus responses. Amid this confrontation, the rules-based international order faced even more severe challenges; the multilateral framework established after World War II with the United Nations at its core lost its US leadership and fell into serious dysfunction. While the international community is struggling to cope with the rapidly expanding outbreak of the novel coronavirus, China has been moving to expand its influence through increasingly authoritarian and assertive domestic and international policies on the rule of law and territorial issues, as well as through economic initiatives such as the existing “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) and its responses to the pandemic. The confrontation with the United States is becoming more and more pronounced, and the Indo-Pacific region is turning itself into divided and contested oceans. In this transforming strategic environment, expressions of support for the vision of a rulesbased “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) that Japan has been promoting for the past several years, or announcements of similar visions have followed one after the other. The year 2020 also saw significant strengthening of the cooperative framework among four countries – Japan, the United States, Australia, and India (QUAD) – together with the enhancement of bilateral cooperation between countries in this group. At the same time, progress was also made in a regional cooperation framework that includes China with the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement in East Asia. The Strategic Annual Report 2020 looks back at major international developments since last year’s Report through the end of 2020, focusing on the transformation of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region and the response of the international community.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Middle East, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1053. After Xi: Future Scenarios for Leadership Succession in Post-Xi Jinping Era

Author:: Richard McGregor and Jude Blanchette
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: After more than eight years in office, Xi Jinping has made himself into China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, but in doing so, Xi has destabilised elite politics and demolished the power sharing norms that evolved since the 1980s. By removing de jure and de facto term limits on the most senior position of power, and thus far refusing to nominate his successor, Xi has solidified his own leadership position but potentially pushed the country towards a destabilising succession crisis. There are various scenarios for what happens after Xi, ranging from a peaceful transfer of power to a split at the top if he is forced out of office in a coup or by illness or death.
Topic:: Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1054. Gen Z's Role in Shaping the Digital Economy

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: A new report by Oxford Economics for Snap Inc. shows how members of Generation Z are poised to play a major role in the economy and labour market over the coming decade across six leading markets: Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US. While the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the deep global recession triggered by measures to contain its spread have impacted younger workers, the accelerated shift towards a more digital economy will serve to the long-term advantage of Gen Z. Gen Z’s income from work will balloon from $440 billion to more than $3.5 trillion by 2030. We estimate their total consumer spending will be $3.0 trillion - equivalent to 11% of total household spending across the six economies. We developed a digital competence index measure. Pooling responses across our survey, Gen Z’s average competence score was 2.5% higher than Millennials and over 8% higher than Gen X. Beyond digital aptitude, our research has highlighted three Gen Z traits that we think are likely to serve them well in the future workplace
Topic:: Digital Economy, Youth, Digital Policy, Consumerism, and Generation Z
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1055. Integrating Mental Health and Psychosocial Support into Transitional Justice in The Gambia: Practitioner Perspectives

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Following the African model of transitional justice presented in the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, this report identifies ways to conceptualise and integrate healing, particularly from psychological wounds, into holistic and contextualised transitional justice practice on the continent. The report draws on reflections from African practitioners engaging with transitional justice issues in The Gambia to share lessons learnt with civil society and other actors seeking to do similar work in the region and beyond. It presents ideas for designing and implementing locally guided, tailored and sustainable mental health and psychosocial support interventions that amplify local knowledge and practices, rather than dampening them with external expertise.
Topic:: Health, Transitional Justice, Psychology, and Mental Health
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

1056. Towards an African Approach to Transitional Justice: Report on the Second African Transitional Justice Forum

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Inaugurated in 2017, the annual African Transitional Justice Forum provides a multi-stakeholder platform for identifying solutions to common problems in a manner that is rooted in collective and national experiences, sharing best practices to advance an African transitional justice discourse and practice, and generating new ideas on how to support transitional justice processes on the continent. It aims to facilitate cooperation between various stakeholders to aid in the effective implementation of the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, adopted in 2019. This report outlines the discussions and recommendations of the Second African Transitional Justice Forums, held on 16–18 October 2018 in Khartoum, Sudan.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Transitional Justice, Peace, Reconciliation, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

1057. The State of Transitional Justice in Africa: Report on the Third African Transitional Justice Forum

Author:: Maxine Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: The Third African Transitional Justice Forum, held on 24–26 September 2019 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, followed the February 2019 adoption of the African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP), a guiding framework for African Union member states emerging from violent conflicts or repression and establishing transitional justice processes to address past abuses and promote sustainable peace and inclusive development. The Forum focused on the AUTJP's eleven constitutive elements: Peace Processes; Transitional Justice Commissions; African Traditional Justice Mechanisms; Reconciliation and Social Cohesion; Reparations; Redistributive (Socio-economic) Justice; Memorialisation; Diversity Management; Justice and Accountability; Political and Institutional Reforms; and Human and Peoples' Rights. It aimed to popularise the AUTJP and deepen participants' understanding of the policy.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Transitional Justice, Peace, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa

1058. Mitigating the risk of a China–India conflict

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: More than a year has passed since Chinese troops began to occupy previously Indian-controlled territory on their disputed border in Ladakh. The crisis has cooled and settled into a stalemate. This report warns that it could escalate again, and flare into a conflict with region-wide implications. The report assesses the risk of conflict by analysing its likelihood and consequences. A possible war would be costly for both India and China. But a possible war could also risk stirring Indian distrust of its new partners, especially in the Quad – Australia, Japan, and the United States. The report outlines some conditions under which a war would disrupt or dampen those developing partnerships. The report concludes by offering a framework for policymakers to shape India’s expectations and the strategic environment before and during a possible war.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: China, India, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

1059. Exfiltrate, encrypt, extort

Author:: Rachael Falk and Anne-Louise Brown
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: As the Covid-19 pandemic has swept across the world, another less visible epidemic has occurred concurrently—a tsunami of cybercrime producing global losses totalling more than US$1 trillion. While cybercrime is huge in scale and diverse in form, there’s one type that presents a unique threat to businesses and governments the world over: ransomware. Some of the most spectacular ransomware attacks have occurred offshore, but Australia hasn’t been immune. Over the past 18 months, major logistics company Toll Holdings Ltd has been hit twice; Nine Entertainment was brought to its knees by an attack that left the company struggling to televise news bulletins and produce newspapers; multiple health and aged-care providers across the country have been hit; and global meat supplies were affected after the Australian and international operations of the world’s largest meat producer, JBS Foods, were brought to a standstill. It’s likely that other organisations have also been hit but have kept it out of the public spotlight. A current policy vacuum makes Australia an attractive market for these attacks, and ransomware is a problem that will only get worse unless a concerted and strategic domestic effort to thwart the attacks is developed. Developing a strategy now is essential. Not only are Australian organisations viewed as lucrative targets due to their often low cybersecurity posture, but they’re also seen as soft targets. The number of attacks will continue to grow unless urgent action is taken to reduce the incentives to target Australian companies and other entities.
Topic:: Crime, National Security, Cybersecurity, Internet, Information Technology, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

1060. An Australian DARPA to turbocharge universities’ national security research: securely managed Defence-funded research partnerships in Five-Eyes universities

Author:: Robert Clark and Peter Jennings
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: More than at any time since World War II, science and technology (S&T) breakthroughs are dramatically redesigning the global security outlook. Australia’s university sector now has a vital role to play in strengthening Australia’s defence. In this paper, we propose establishing a formal partnership between the Defence Department, defence industry and Australian universities. There’s a significant opportunity to boost international defence S&T research cooperation with our Five-Eyes partners: the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand. We outline how this can be done. Central to this partnership proposal is the need to restructure current arrangements for Defence funding of Australian universities via the creation of an Australian Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)— based on the highly successful American model, which the UK plans to emulate in 2022. In Australia, implementing these initiatives will contribute significantly to a vital restructuring of the university sector’s research funding model. An Australian DARPA, with robustly managed security, will enhance research ‘cut-through’ in the defence sector and the wider economy. We think it’s also vital that this work, underpinned by a DARPA-like culture of urgency and innovation and with potential to affect several portfolios beyond Defence, needs to be championed at the government level. In the modern Australian system of government, that means the Prime Minister needs to be directly involved. Urgent means urgent. At least for the first few years of its life, an Australian DARPA should, in our view, report through Defence to the Prime Minister and the National Security Committee of Cabinet.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Partnerships, Research, and Academia
Political Geography:: Australia

1061. Digital government services. Building for peak demand.

Author:: Tom Uren
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, the myGov website was overwhelmed by a demand surge from citizens seeking to rapidly access digital services. In 2016, the online Census (eCensus) suffered a series of relatively small distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. While they didn’t overwhelm the platform, the attacks ultimately resulted in the eCensus being taken offline. What do these two examples have in common, and what lessons should we learn to ensure more robust digital government services? To answer those questions, this paper will examine five points: The nature of the DDoS attacks The CIA (confidentiality, integrity and availability) triad model for digital security How to predict demand How to respond to unpredictable demand The structure of reliable data systems
Topic:: Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1062. 'Lead me to the harbour!': Plotting Darwin Harbour's future course

Author:: John Coyne and Teagan Westendorf
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In this report, authors Dr John Coyne and Dr Teagan Westendorf seek to move Australia’s public policy discourse on the future of Darwin Port beyond a binary choice. In doing so, they consider the Harbour’s history, the nature of its strategic importance to Australia and our allies, and opportunities for its future development. The report explores four potential options for the future development of the Port and Harbour. Rather than providing a specific policy treatment on the current leasing arrangements, this work focuses on promoting policy discourse on a unifying vision for the future of Darwin Harbour. A key insight from this analysis is that this moment is an opportunity for the federal government to work with the Northern Territory Government to harness the existing plans for the Port’s future, including those proposed by Defence, the US and the NT Government, and embed those plans within the broader strategic vision for Australia moving forward. While each of these worthy plans undoubtedly has merit, the question is whether, by carefully harnessing them together, they could produce a greater economic and national security whole.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Infrastructure, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Australia

1063. Losing our agnosticism. How to make Australia’s foreign influence laws work

Author:: Daniel Ward
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Country agnosticism, under which Australia’s laws treat all foreign influence efforts in the same way, regardless of their source country, is the key failing of Australia’s statutory response to foreign governments’ influence activities. It has imposed sweeping, unnecessary regulatory costs. It has caused waste of taxpayer-funded enforcement resources. It has diverted those resources from the issues that really matter. And it has brought unnecessary legal complexity. Yet for all that, nobody believes that the laws are truly country agnostic. Not the Australian media, which routinely describe them as ‘aimed at’ China. Nor, presumably, the media’s audience. Nor, certainly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which regards itself as the target, explicitly citing the laws as a key grievance. Perhaps the greatest cost of country agnosticism is that the current statutory framework isn’t as effective as it needs to be. Why? In adopting a country-agnostic stance, we blinded ourselves to the very factor that matters most in evaluating and responding to foreign influence—its source country. It’s time to remove the blindfold. We should recognise this basic truth: foreign influence transparency requirements must be more stringent in relation to some source countries than others.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

1064. Influence for hire. The Asia-Pacific’s online shadow economy

Author:: Jacob Wallis, Ariel Bogle, Albert Zhang, Hillary Mansour, Tim Niven, Elena Yi-Ching, Jason Liu, Jonathan Corpus Ong, and Ross Tapsell
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: It’s not just nation-states that interfere in elections and manipulate political discourse. A range of commercial services increasingly engage in such activities, operating in a shadow online influence-for-hire economy that spans from content farms through to high-end PR agencies. There’s growing evidence of states using commercial influence-for-hire networks. The Oxford Internet Institute found 48 instances of states working with influence-for-hire firms in 2019–20, an increase from 21 in 2017–18 and nine in 2016–17.1 There’s a distinction between legitimate, disclosed political campaigning and government advertising campaigns, on the one hand, and efforts by state actors to covertly manipulate the public opinion of domestic populations or citizens of other countries using inauthentic social media activity, on the other. The use of covert, inauthentic, outsourced online influence is also problematic as it degrades the quality of the public sphere in which citizens must make informed political choices and decisions.
Topic:: Elections, Internet, Social Media, and Economy
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

1065. ANZUS at 70: the past, present and future of the alliance

Author:: Patrick Walters
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The ANZUS Treaty was signed on 1 September 1951 in San Francisco. It was the product of energetic Australian lobbying to secure a formal US commitment to Australian and New Zealand security. At the time, the shape of Asian security after World War II was still developing. Canberra worried that a ‘soft’ peace treaty with Japan might one day allow a return of a militarised regime to threaten the region. ANZUS at 70 explores the past, present and future of the alliance relationship, drawing on a wide range of authors with deep professional interest in the alliance. Our aim is to provide lively and comprehensible analysis of key historical points in the life of the treaty and indeed of the broader Australia–US bilateral relationship, which traces its defence origins back to before World War I. ANZUS today encompasses much more than defence and intelligence cooperation. Newer areas of collaboration include work on cybersecurity, space, supply chains, industrial production, rare earths, emerging science and technology areas such as quantum computing, climate change and wider engagement with countries and institutions beyond ANZUS’s initial scope or intention. The treaty remains a core component of wider and deeper relations between Australia and the US. This study aims to show the range of those ties, to understand the many and varied challenges we face today and to understand how ANZUS might be shaped to meet future events.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

1066. Buying and selling extremism

Author:: Ariel Bogle
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: As mainstream social media companies have increased their scrutiny and moderation of right-wing extremist (RWE) content and groups, there’s been a move to alternative online content platforms. There’s also growing concern about right-wing extremism in Australia, and about how this shift has diversified the mechanisms used to fundraise by RWE entities. This phenomenon isn’t well understood in Australia, despite the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) advising in March 2021 that ‘ideological extremism’ now makes up around 40% of its priority counterterrorism caseload. Research by ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre (ICPC) has found that nine Australian Telegram channels that share RWE content used at least 22 different funding platforms, including online monetisation tools and cryptocurrencies, to solicit, process and earn funds between 1 January 2021 and 15 July 2021. Due to the opaque nature of many online financial platforms, it’s difficult to obtain a complete picture of online fundraising, so this sample is necessarily limited. However, in this report we aim to provide a preliminary map of the online financial platforms and services that may both support and incentivise an RWE content ecosystem in Australia. Most funding platforms found in our sample have policies that explicitly prohibit the use of their services for hate speech, but we found that those policies were often unclear and not uniformly enforced. Of course, there’s debate about how to balance civil liberties with the risks posed by online communities that promote RWE ideology (and much of that activity isn’t illegal), but a better understanding of online funding mechanisms is necessary, given the growing concern about the role online propaganda may play in inspiring acts of violence as well as the risk that, like other social divisions, such channels and movements could be exploited by adversaries. The fundraising facilitated by these platforms not only has the potential to grow the resources of groups and individuals linked to right-wing extremism, but it’s also likely to be a means of building the RWE community both within Australia and with overseas groups and a vector for spreading RWE propaganda through the engagement inherent in fundraising efforts. The funding platforms mirror those used by RWE figures overseas, and funding requests were boosted by foreign actors, continuing Australian RWEs’ history of ‘meaningful international exchange’ with overseas counterparts.
Topic:: Internet, Social Media, Far Right, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1067. ASPI - Embassy of Japan 1.5 Track Dialogue on Responsible Behaviour in Space

Author:: Malcolm Davis and Khwezi Nkwanyana
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Earlier this year, ASPI and the Embassy of Japan in Australia convened a hybrid workshop on responsible behaviours in space; a concept which has emerged as a key focus of the international space policy community. At the workshop, participants discussed the stable and sustainable use of space and management of security challenges in space, and ways to define responsible behaviour in space, including through UN General Assembly Resolution 75/36. Participants at this workshop included academics, practitioners, government representatives, military personnel and legal experts from Australia, Japan, Britain and Southeast Asia. This workshop and report were sponsored by the Embassy of Japan in Australia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Space
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Australia

1068. Deterrence through denial: A strategy for an era of reduced warning time

Author:: Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia now needs to implement serious changes to how warning time is considered in defence planning. The need to plan for reduced warning time has implications for the Australian intelligence community, defence strategic policy, force structure priorities, readiness and sustainability. Important changes will also be needed with respect to personnel, stockpiles of missiles and munitions, and fuel supplies. We can no longer assume that Australia will have time gradually to adjust military capability and preparedness in response to emerging threats. In other words, there must be a new approach in Defence to managing warning, capability and preparedness, and detailed planning for rapid expansion and sustainment. This paper addresses those issues, recognising that they’re a revolutionary break with the past era of what were much more comfortable assumptions about threats to Australia. Considering the complexity of the issues involved, we have identified further areas for research, including at the classified level.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Australia

1069. The cost of Defence ASPI defence budget brief 2021–2022

Author:: Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Once again, the Australian Government has delivered exactly the funding it promised in the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP) and subsequent 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU). If the government was willing to recommit to the DWP’s funding line in the depths of the Covid-19 recession, it was very unlikely to walk away from it now that the economy is recovering faster than expected. This year, the consolidated defence funding line (including both the Department of Defence and the Australian Signals Directorate) is $44.6 billion, which is real growth of 4.1%. It’s the ninth straight year of real growth, and, according to the DSU’s funding model, that will continue until the end of the decade.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, National Security, and Military Spending
Political Geography:: Australia

1070. Collaborative nation building: Port of Townsville case study

Author:: Gill Savage and John Coyne
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The theme for this report is nation building, not the kinds of one-off investment ‘announceables’ we’re familiar with that connect cities with roads. Instead, this is the kind of nation building that’s big picture and courageous, and reminiscent of the past—the kinds of initiatives that build the infrastructure from which economic, social and national security opportunities grow. The Port of Townsville has embarked on a forward-leaning journey that started a decade ago with a vision, planning and initial environmental approvals, and that’s now being pursued through collaborative engagement of a type not common in the ports sector. While the sector does take a long-term view on management and expansion, it’s still very unusual for individual ports to actively engage with trading partners in a strategic way and beyond the boundaries of specific projects. This special report looks at what’s happening today in the Townsville region, using the Port of Townsville as an example of what’s possible, and looks at what others at the regional, state and national levels can pursue beyond one-off investments to drive nation building that fosters economic, social and environmental prosperity. A collaborative approach to nation building isn’t new. It’s more that we haven’t engaged in this way for several decades now and as a nation, and we’re out of practice. Nation building in Australia must move beyond investment in major highways between large cities and investment in inner urban infrastructure. It must be underpinned by a framework that drives economic, social and environmental prosperity and that’s pursued collaboratively with persistence and courage. It must also move beyond a focus on short-term energetic infrastructure construction and economic ‘sugar hits’. The Port of Townsville provides a case example of how that’s being done today.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, and State Building
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

1071. Mapping China's Tech Giants: Reining in China’s technology giants

Author:: Fergus Ryan, Audrey Fritz, and Daria Impiombato
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Since the launch of ASPI ICPC’s Mapping China’s Technology Giants project in April 2019, the Chinese technology companies we canvassed have gone through a tumultuous period. While most were buoyed by the global Covid-19 pandemic, which stimulated demand for technology services around the world, many were buffeted by an unprecedented onslaught of sanctions from abroad, before being engulfed in a regulatory storm at home. The environment in which the Chinese tech companies are operating has changed radically, as the pandemic sensitised multiple governments, multilateral groups and companies to their own critical supply-chain vulnerabilities. The lessons about national resilience learned from the pandemic are now being applied in many sectors, including the technology sector, where a trend towards decoupling China and the West was already well underway. As the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China has heightened, both sides increasingly see any reliance on the other for strategic commodities, such as rare-earth minerals and semiconductors, as dangerous vulnerabilities.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China and Australia

1072. Mapping China's Tech Giants: Supply chains & the global data collection ecosystem

Author:: Samantha Hoffman and Nathan Attrill
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Most of the 27 companies tracked by our Mapping China’s Technology Giants project are heavily involved in the collection and processing of vast quantities of personal and organisational data — everything from personal social media accounts, to smart cities data, to biomedical data. Their business operations—and associated international collaborations — depend on the flow of vast amounts of data, often governed by the data privacy laws of multiple jurisdictions. Currently, however, existing global policy debates and subsequent policy responses concerning security in the digital supply chain miss the bigger picture because they typically prioritise the potential for disruption or malicious alterations of the supply chain. Yet, as we have defined it in this report, digital supply-chain risk starts at the design level (Figure 1). For the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the designer is the Chinese party-state, through expectations and agenda-setting in laws and policy documents and actions such as the mobilisation of state resources to achieve objectives such as the setting of technology standards. It’s through those standards, policies and laws that the party-state is refining its capacity to exert control over companies’ activities to ensure that it can derive strategic value and benefit from the companies’ global operations. That includes leveraging data collection taking place through those companies’ everyday global business activities, which ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre (ICPC) described in the Engineering global consent report. Technology isn’t agnostic—who sets the standards and therefore the direction of the technology matters just as much as who manufactures the product. This will have major implications for the effectiveness of data protection laws and notions of digital supply-chain security.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Data, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1073. What if …? Economic consequences for Australia of a US-China conflict over Taiwan

Author:: David Uren
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: hat if China were to attempt to seize Taiwan by force and the US and allies responded militarily? One consequence would be the disruption of China’s trade with many countries, including Australia. While strategic analysts have been working over such scenarios for years, there’s been little study of the likely economic consequences. This study is focused on the short-term shock to Australia’s economy. The objective is to contribute to an understanding of the nature of Australia’s economic relationship with China and the likely paths of adjustment should that trade be severed. It also explores the options available to the Australian Government to ameliorate the worst of the effects of what would be a severe economic shock. The conclusion of this report is that the disruption to the Australian economy would be significant. There would be widespread loss of employment, along with consumer and business goods shortages that would be likely to necessitate rationing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1074. To deter the PRC …

Author:: Kyle Marcrum and Brendan Mulvaney
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This Strategic Insights report is the first in a series of essays, workshops and events seeking to better understand the nature of deterrence, particularly from the viewpoint of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The series is a joint project between the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the US China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). Over the coming months, ASPI and CASI, along with our research associates, will examine the concept of deterrence, how both democratic countries and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) approach deterrence, what liberal democracies are doing to deter China and what China is doing to deter them, and assess the impacts of those efforts. The series will culminate in an in-person conference that will put forward policy options for Australia, the US and our allies and partners. These publications will draw heavily from original PRC and PLA documents, as well as interviews and personal experiences, to help understand the framework that the PRC uses when it thinks about what we call here ‘deterrence'.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1075. France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and its overseas territories in the Indian and Pacific oceans: Characteristics, capabilities, constraints and avenues for deepening the Franco-Australian strategic partnership

Author:: Nicolas Regaud
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The report analyses France’s military capabilities and cooperation activities in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, underlining its strengths and limitations. In terms of its economic presence and official development assistance commitments, it is clear that the French strategy suffers significant limitations. However, these may be offset by a growing commitment from the EU and through strategic partnerships allowing France to pool efforts at all levels to meet regional and global challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific

1076. The rapidly emerging crisis on our doorstep

Author:: Robert Glasser
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This Strategic Insight report warns that within a decade, as the climate continues to warm, the relatively benign strategic environment in Maritime Southeast Asia - a region of crucial importance to Australia - will begin unravelling. Dr Robert Glasser, Head of ASPI's new Climate and Security Policy Centre, documents the region’s globally unique exposure to climate hazards, and the increasingly significant cascading societal impacts they will trigger. Dr Glasser notes that hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas will not only experience more severe extremes, but also more frequent swings from extreme heat and drought to severe floods. The diminishing time for recovery in between these events will have major consequences for food security, population displacements and resilience. According to Dr Glasser, 'Any one of the numerous increasing risks identified in the report would be serious cause for concern for Australian policymakers, but the combination of them, emerging effectively simultaneously, suggests that we’re on the cusp of an overlooked, unprecedented and rapidly advancing regional crisis.' The report presents several policy recommendations for Australia, including the need to greatly expand the Government’s capacity to understand and identify the most likely paths through which disruptive climate events (individually, concurrently, or consecutively) can cause cascading, security-relevant impacts, such as disruptions of critical supply chains, galvanized separatist movements, climate refugees, opportunistic intervention by outside powers, political instability, and conflict. Dr Glasser also proposes that Australia should identify priority investments to scale-up the capability within Defence, Foreign Affairs, the intelligence agencies, Home Affairs and other key agencies to recognise and respond to emerging regional climate impacts, including by supporting our regional neighbours to build their climate resilience.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

1077. Island voices and Covid-19: Vulnerability and resilience Views from The Strategist

Author:: David Brewster and Richard Herring
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This Strategic Insights report is being published as part of an ASPI project that focuses on the vulnerabilities of Indo-Pacific island states in the Covid-19 era. It presents a series of views on ways that insiders and external observers have viewed the vulnerabilities and resilience of island countries in the Pacific and Indian Oceans in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. All of these contributions have appeared as posts on The Strategist. They don’t try to offer a sequential account of events or perceptions but represent a collection of responses to the crisis. The authors were not asked to address a single issue but, rather, were encouraged to focus on issues of relevance to them. The result is a mosaic rather than a portrait of nearly a year of living with the tensions posed by the pandemic. Two key themes do tend to dominate this mosaic. One concerns the way vulnerabilities are expressed as challenges. The second identifies the opportunities that resilience can create.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

1078. The impact of quantum technologies on secure communications

Author:: Robert Clark, Stephen Bartlett, Michael Bremner, Ping Koy Lam, and Timothy Ralph
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This ASPI report examines the impact of quantum technologies on secure communications. It provides an overview of the key technologies and the status of the field in Australia and internationally (including escalating recent developments in both the US and China), and captures counterpart US, UK and Canadian reports and recommendations to those nations’ defence departments that have recently been released publicly. The report is structured into six sections: an introduction that provides a stand-alone overview and sets out both the threat and the opportunity of quantum technologies for communications security, and more detailed sections that span quantum computing, quantum encryption, the quantum internet, and post-quantum cryptography. The last section of the report makes five substantive recommendations in the Australian context that are implementable and in the national interest. A key message on quantum technologies relates to urgency. Escalating international progress is opening a widening gap in relation to Australia’s status in this field. It is critical that, in addition to its own initiatives, the Defence Department transitions from a largely watching brief on progress across the university sector and start-up companies to a leadership role—to coordinate, resource and harness the full potential of a most capable Australian quantum technologies community to support Defence’s objectives.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Communications, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:: Australia

1079. Gamechanger: Australian leadership for all-season air access to Antarctica

Author:: Jeffrey McGee, Marcus Haward, and Anthony Bergin
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Next year, the Australian Government will decide on whether to commit funding for a proposed year-round, paved aerodrome near the Australian Davis research station in East Antarctica. An all-weather, year-round, paved runway near Davis would have huge positive impacts on Antarctic science and logistics in East Antarctica, where there are no equivalent facilities. It would be the only paved runway in Antarctica. As with any major piece of infrastructure development, there’ll be inevitable environmental impacts from the construction and operation of the Davis aerodrome. However, we believe that with care, it should be possible to design, construct and operate a facility that satisfies both operational requirements and environmental obligations under the Madrid Protocol and relevant Australian legislation. If Australia doesn’t proceed with the aerodrome, another country may step into our shoes and take a similar proposal forward. It might be a country with lower standards of environmental assessment and a lesser track record of environmental protection in Antarctica. The Davis aerodrome project requires long-term funding and political commitment. Failing to proceed with the proposal would weaken our influence in Antarctica: it would allow other states to take advantage of the opportunity for logistical and scientific leadership in East Antarctica. The proposed Davis aerodrome will increase Australia's strategic weight in Antarctica, where we claim 42% of the continent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:: Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Antarctica

1080. Cracking the missile matrix

Author:: Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Last year’s war between Azerbaijan and Armenia was short, sharp and decisive. By effectively employing precision guided weapons, the former rapidly forced the latter to capitulate and accede to its political demands. The conflict confirmed the centrality of guided weapons to modern war fighting and showed how small states can now master the technologies and techniques needed to use them. Last year also witnessed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the supply-chain crisis it triggered. That provoked much soul-searching from governments and companies about how to manage the risks presented by modern just-in-time supply chains that span the globe. When we take those two events together, it’s clear that the ADF will not only need many kinds of guided weapons across the spectrum of conflict, but also need to guarantee their availability in times of crisis when supply chains will be under pressure and threat. That will be difficult, since Australia currently manufactures virtually no guided weapons. The Australian Government is also aware of both needs. Its 2020 Defence Strategic Update plans on investing tens of billions of dollars in guided weapons over the next two decades. It also directs Defence to explore the potential for new sovereign guided weapons production capability to mitigate supply risks. It appears that exploration has determined that the potential can be turned into reality: on 31 March, the government announced that it was ‘accelerating’ the development of a sovereign guided weapon manufacturing capability. This report examines two fundamental questions. First, would the manufacture of guided weapons in Australia enhance ADF capability and provide greater self-reliance? Second, is it viable to manufacture guided weapons in Australia? The answer to both questions is ‘yes’. The report also presents some key considerations about how the industry should be established.
Topic:: Security, Government, Weapons, Investment, Defense Industry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Australia

1081. Somebody might hear us: Emerging communications security technologies

Author:: Andrew Davies
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Militaries have been trying to keep their communications safe from prying eyes for centuries. But they have also sought to be able to communicate as quickly as possible and as widely as possible with their own forces. Those requirements are in tension with one another. Today, militaries can communicate globally over increasingly capacious data pipes. But the same technological evolution that allows them to do that has also given would-be eavesdroppers new and powerful tools to collect and exploit signals. In this report, author Dr Andrew Davies explains the principles of secure communication and uses some examples of emerging technologies to illustrate what the next generation of secure communications might look like.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Communications, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Australia

1082. Stronger Together: US force posture in Australia’s north—a US perspective on Australia’s strategic geography

Author:: Todd C. Hanks
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Stronger together: US force posture in Australia’s north—a US perspective on Australia’s strategic geography This report argues why, and analyses how, Australia’s defence force capabilities and strategic geography can enable US force posture initiatives in the Indo-Pacific to promote greater regional cooperation in ways that advance US and Australian national interests. Lieutenant Colonel Hanks writes that there are ‘practical and tangible areas for US-Australia cooperation and growth which include: 1) expanding the Australian defence industrial base while securing and hardening supply chains; 2) increasing US Army force posture in northern Australia; 3) increasing multinational training opportunities; and 4) in conjunction with Australia, expanding the defence partnership with Indonesia.’ ‘The US now relies on increased cooperation from partners and allies to regain the initiative from the PRC in the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s defence strategy and policies are better aligned with US defence strategy and policies today, than ever before.’ The report argues that military modernization alone will not effectively expand the competitive space and disrupt PRC grey-zone decision cycles. Thinking asymmetrically, Australia can use its strategic geography and defence capabilities to enable US force posture initiatives in the Indo-Pacific to promote greater regional cooperation and, through greater deterrent posture and capability, reduce the risk of conflict.
Topic:: National Security, Military Affairs, Geography, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Australia and United States of America

1083. Family De-planning: The Coercive Campaign to Drive Down Indigenous Birth-rates in Xinjiang

Author:: Nathan Ruser and James Leibold
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In this report, we provide new evidence documenting the effectiveness of the Chinese government’s systematic efforts to reduce the size of the indigenous population of Xinjiang through a range of coercive birth-control policies. Using the Chinese government’s own publicly available statistics, we have compiled a dataset of county-level birth-rates (natality) across 2011-2019. We then marshal this data to analyse trends across nationalities and spatial regions in Xinjiang, before and after the 2016 crackdown, and comparatively with other countries as recorded in the UN population dataset. Finally, we place these statistics in context through our analysis of county-level implementation documents and other official Chinese language sources which have been previously overlooked. In 1979, Deng Xiaoping launched the “one child policy” and created a complex set of bureaucratic institutions and practices for controlling population growth. Party officials rather than women would decide what they did with their bodies. The one-child policy has seen a dramatic drop in China’s fertility rate and unleashed new concerns about a looming demographic crisis. Yet the instinct to control remains. As Party officials are loosening family-planning rules on Han women, they are simultaneously cracking down on the reproductive rights of Uyghur and other indigenous nationalities in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) over perceived fears of instability and uneven growth. In the name of stability and control, the CCP under President Xi Jinping is seeking to fundamentally transform the social and physical landscape of Xinjiang. This includes the construction of hundreds of prison-like detention centres and the mass internment of Uyghurs, Kazakh and other indigenous nationalities; a regime of highly intrusive and near constant surveillance; the erasure of indigenous culture, language and religious practices and sites; and mandatory job assignments that are indicative of forced labour; among other now well-documented human rights abuses.
Topic:: Demographics, Population, Ethnic Cleansing, Family Planning, Cyberspace, and Birth Rates
Political Geography:: China, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Xinjiang

1084. An Australian strategy for the quantum revolution

Author:: Gavin Brennen, Simon Devitt, Tara Roberson, and Peter Rohde
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The world is now at the precipice of another technological and social revolution—the quantum revolution. The countries that master quantum technology will dominate the information processing space for decades and perhaps centuries to come, giving them control and influence over sectors such as advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, the digital economy, logistics, national security and intelligence.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Quantum Computers, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Australia

1085. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: Views from The Strategist Volume 3

Author:: John Coyne and Teagan Westendorf
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26° South and the Security of Australia Volume 3’, is an all-new series of articles by a range of authors exploring the continued importance of Northern Australia to national security and defence strategy. This Volume’s contributions were written over a year in which increased strategic uncertainty and an unprecedented global pandemic have collectively generated an interest in revisiting old policy assumptions. Right from the start, it was clear that we need to think of the north as the middle of the region, rather than the edge of Australia, and reflect that critical role in Australia’s political, military and economic strategies moving forward. The economic, social and geopolitical effects of Covid-19 have presented opportunities for a radical a rethinking of nation-building in the north, and collaboration between the public and private sectors to support it. The rise of Chinese influence in the region and globally has changed Australia’s role in the Indo-Pacific and the strategic significance of Australia’s defence capabilities and alliances to the broader international community. The pandemic response and geopolitical tensions have highlighted supply-chain resilience as a key area of capability uplift for Australia, making the north significant both as the key trade hub with region and a source of natural resource exports. The report builds on the previous Volumes of North of 26° South by broadening the breadth and depth of its contributions northern Australia strategic policy. This report provides much needed contemporary analysis and the criticality of the North to Australia’s national security and defence.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Australia

1086. Leaping across the ocean: The port operators behind China's naval expansion

Author:: Charlie Lyons Jones and Raphael Veit
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has become increasingly willing to project military power overseas while coercing and co-opting countries into accepting the objectives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Beijing’s greater willingness to flex its muscles, both politically and militarily, is supported by its overseas investments in critical infrastructure, which provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with the logistical enablers needed to project military power beyond the ‘first island chain’ in the Western Pacific. ‘Controlling the seas in the region, leaping across the ocean for force projection’ (区域控海，跨洋投送) is the term Chinese naval commentators use when referring to the PLA Navy’s bid to project power across the world. Australia should build its research and analytical capacity to better understand the nexus between the CCP and SOEs. That due diligence, building on open-source research conducted for this report, will better illuminate the PRC’s global expansion, potential grey-zone operations and the companies and individuals involved.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Navy
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and South China Sea

1087. Trigger warning. The CCP’s coordinated information effort to discredit the BBC

Author:: Jacob Wallis, Albert Zhang, and Ariel Bogle
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Chinese Communist Party (CCP) diplomatic accounts, Chinese state media, pro-CCP influencers and patriotic trolls are targeting the UK public broadcaster, the BBC, in a coordinated information operation. Recent BBC reports, including the allegations of systematic sexual assault in Xinjiang’s internment camps, were among a number of triggers provoking the CCP’s propaganda apparatus to discredit the BBC, distract international attention and recapture control of the narrative. In ASPI ICPC’s new report, Albert Zhang and Dr Jacob Wallis provide a snapshot of the CCP’s ongoing coordinated response targeting the BBC, which leveraged YouTube, Twitter and Facebook and was broadly framed around three prominent narratives: That the BBC spreads disinformation and is biased against China That the BBC’s domestic audiences think that it’s biased and not to be trusted That the BBC’s reporting on China is instigated by foreign actors and intelligence agencies. In addition, the report analyses some of the secondary effects of this propaganda effort by exploring the mobilisation of a pro-CCP Twitter network that has previously amplified the Covid-19 disinformation content being pushed by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and whose negative online engagement with the BBC peaks on the same days as that of the party-state’s diplomats and state media. To contest and blunt criticism of the CCP’s systematic surveillance and control of minority ethnic groups, the party will continue to aggressively deploy its propaganda and disinformation apparatus. Domestic control remains fundamental to its political power and legitimacy, and internationally narrative control is fundamental to the pursuit of its foreign policy interests.
Topic:: Media, Journalism, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and BBC
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

1088. Coming ready or not: Hypersonic weapons

Author:: Andrew Davies
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report analyses the future impact that hypersonic weaponry will have on global affairs. Hypersonic systems include anything that travels faster than Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. We may be on the cusp of seeing hypersonic weapons proliferate around the world, with Russia, China and the US all in the process of developing and testing them. By 2030 they are likely to be in the inventory of all of the major powers. And Australia might well join them - we have some world class researchers and have been active in joint programs with the US for over 20 years. The government has added hypersonic weapons to its defence acquisition plan. It's a topic we should be interested in and better informed about. It's always hard to predict exactly how much will change when a new technology enters the battlefield, but Australia is investing tens of billions of dollars in advanced sensors and combat systems to defend its surface vessels against subsonic and supersonic weapons. It's not clear that they will be effective enough against hypersonic weapons. On the plus side for our defence forces, hypersonic strike weapons with ranges of thousands of kilometres could return a strike capability to the ADF that has been missing since the F-111 was retired a decade ago. There are some strategic stability issues to be wrestled with as well. The US is developing a 'prompt global strike' system that would allow it hit a target pretty much anywhere on Earth in 20 minutes. Russian and Chinese systems are being developed with a nuclear or conventional warhead capability. The combination of short warning times and nuclear warhead ambiguity is potentially highly destabilising.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China, Australia, and United States of America

1089. 'High rollers' A study of criminal profits along Australia’s heroin and methamphetamine supply chains

Author:: John Coyne and Teagan Westendorf
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report helps develop an understanding of the quantum of profits being made and where in the value chain they occur. Australians spent approximately A$5.8 billion on methamphetamine and A$470 million on heroin in FY 2019. Approximately A$1,216,806,017 was paid to international wholesalers overseas for the amphetamine and heroin that was smuggled into Australia in that year. The profit that remained in Australia’s economy was about A$5,012,150,000. Those funds are undermining Australia’s public health and distorting our economy daily, and ultimately funding drug cartels and traffickers in Southeast Asia. One key takeaway from the figures presented in this report is that the Australian drug trade is large and growing. Despite the best efforts of law enforcement agencies, methamphetamine and heroin use has been increasing by up to 17% year on year. Falling prices in Southeast Asia are likely to keep pushing that number up, while drug prices and purity in Australia remain relatively stable. Authors Dr John Coyne and Dr Teagan Westendorf write that, 'While ever-larger drug busts continue to dominate the headlines, the underlying fact is that methamphetamine and heroin imports continue to rise despite authorities seizing up to 34% of imported drugs'. As production prices for methamphetamine continue to decline along with wholesale prices, more sophisticated transnational organised crime actors are likely to begin to examine their business models in greater detail. Industrial production of methamphetamine for high-volume, low-profit regional markets like Australia has significant benefits for them. The data suggests that the more sophisticated transnational organised crime groups will seek to expand their control of the heroin and methamphetamine value chains to include greater elements of the wholesale supply chain as well as alternative product lines, such as synthetic opioids. The authors note that 'in the absence of supply reduction, and even with more effective supply-chain disruption, our federal and state governments will need to invest more heavily in demand reduction and harm minimisation.'
Topic:: Crime, Transnational Actors, Supply Chains, Methamphetamine, and Heroin
Political Geography:: Australia and Southeast Asia

1090. Strange bedfellows on Xinjiang: The CCP, fringe media and US social media platforms

Author:: Albert Zhang, Jacob Wallis, and Zoe Meers
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report explores how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), fringe media and pro-CCP online actors seek—sometimes in unison—to shape and influence international perceptions of the Chinese Government’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang, including through the amplification of disinformation. United States (US) based social media networks, including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, along with Chinese-owned TikTok (owned by Chinese company ByteDance), are centre stage for this global effort. The Chinese Government continues to deny human rights abuses in Xinjiang despite a proliferation of credible evidence, including media reporting, independent research, testimonies and open-source data, that has revealed abuses including forced labour, mass detention, surveillance, sterilisation, cultural erasure and alleged genocide in the region. To distract from such human rights abuses, covert and overt online information campaigns have been deployed to portray positive narratives about the CCP’s domestic policies in the region, while also injecting disinformation into the global public discourse regarding Xinjiang. The report’s key findings: Since early 2020, there’s been a stark increase in the Chinese Government and state media’s use of US social media networks to push alternative narratives and disinformation about the situation in Xinjiang. Chinese state media accounts have been most successful in using Facebook to engage and reach an international audience. The CCP is using tactics including leveraging US social media platforms to criticise and smear Uyghur victims, journalists and researchers who work on this topic, as well as their organisations. We expect these efforts to escalate in 2021. Chinese Government officials and state media are increasingly amplifying content, including disinformation, produced by fringe media and conspiracist websites that are often sympathetic to the narrative positioning of authoritarian regimes. This amplifies the reach and influence of these sites in the Western media ecosystem. Senior officials from multilateral organisations, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN), have also played a role in sharing such content. The Xinjiang Audio-Video Publishing House, a publishing organisation owned by a regional government bureau and affiliated with the CCP’s United Front Work Department, has funded a marketing company to create videos depicting Uyghurs as supportive of the Chinese Government’s policies in Xinjiang. Those videos were then amplified on Twitter and YouTube by a network of inauthentic accounts. The Twitter accounts also retweeted and liked non-Xinjiang-related tweets by Chinese diplomatic officials and Chinese state-affiliated media in 2020.
Topic:: Human Rights, Media, Social Media, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, United States of America, and Xinjiang

1091. Counterterrorism Yearbook 2021

Author:: Leanne Close and Daria Impiombato
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: ASPI is delighted to release its 5th edition of the Counterterrorism (CT) yearbook, edited by Leanne Close, APM and Daria Impiombato. The 2021 yearbook provides a comprehensive picture of the current global terrorism landscape. The yearbook's 29 authors found Covid-19—a key theme in most chapters—to have had an impact on global terrorism. However, pervasive online social media platforms have played a more significant role, increasing terrorists’ ability to radicalise and incite individuals to commit terrorist acts, as well as encouraging financial support to terrorist groups. The yearbook begins with an overview of current trends and the terrorism landscape in 2020 identified in the 8th Global Terrorism Index (GTI) produced by Australia’s Institute for Economics and Peace. As well as analysis of the impacts of Covid-19 on terrorist threats globally, several key themes emerge from the yearbook’s chapters, consistent with the trends identified in the GTI. These include the impact of social media and technology on terrorist events and radicalisation, and a nexus between terrorism and organised crime. One concerning example highlights the impact of natural disasters on violent extremism, with a study of 167 countries over 30 years from 1970, which found that an increase in deaths from natural disasters resulted in an increase in terrorism-related deaths and attacks in the following two years. Strong examples of prevention and strategies to counter violent extremism are outlined in the yearbook, providing governments and CT practitioners with contemporary analysis of current and emerging challenges and offering key policy recommendations to combat radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism in all its forms.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1092. Next step in the step up: The ADF's role in building health security in Pacific Island states

Author:: David Brewster
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The ADF has long had an important role in providing humanitarian assistance to Pacific island countries (PICs). The force has extraordinary capabilities—people, expertise, training and equipment—in delivering necessary assistance quickly and efficiently. From Australia’s perspective, the ADF is one of our most important agencies in engaging with our PIC partners, particularly in helping them to develop capabilities to address a range of security challenges. In Australia’s new strategic environment, the ADF can also play an important role in helping to build regional health security as part of a new phase in Australia’s Pacific Step-up. This paper argues that the Australian Government should consider a new role for the ADF in the Pacific through developing mutually beneficial enduring military health partnerships.3 That would involve the regular rotation of ADF health professionals through partner medical facilities where they would have the opportunity to gain unique frontline experience from local experts, while also sharing their own knowledge and skills. The mutuality of benefits inherent in such an arrangement means that they shouldn’t be considered as traditional humanitarian assistance. An enhanced role for the ADF in regional health security, properly structured, might ultimately come to be seen alongside the Pacific Patrol Boat Program as a successful example of mutually beneficial partnerships between the ADF and our Pacific neighbours.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Health
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

1093. The Socio-Psychological Dynamics of Conspiracy Theories: Is “Q” a Warning Sign for the Future?

Author:: Erik Hacker
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Conspiracy theories have been surging worldwide since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only can they have considerable negative impact on a societal level, they are also capable of disrupting individual lives. Along commonly asked questions, this extended factsheet provides an overview of socio-psychological theories that explain belief in conspiracy theories in general. This framework is then applied to empirical data on the QAnon conspiracy movement in order to illustrate theoretical assumptions. After a brief introduction of the concept of conspiracy mindset and related demographic groups, the focus is on the fulfillment of epistemic, existential and social motives from a multitude of perspectives: media landscapes, communities, ideological structures, addiction, and gamification. The factsheet is concluded with a variety of options for prevention and mitigation, and a discussion on the implications for the future of society in the context of deep fakes and the post-truth world.
Topic:: COVID-19, Misinformation, QAnon, and Conspiracy Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1094. A Scoping Study of CSVR's Work with Gender and Gender-Based Violence

Author:: Steven Rebello
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This report highlights CSVR's work with gender and gender-based violence (GBV). It briefly highlights international best practices in terms of GBV prevention as well as CSVR research, advocacy, clinical, community and organisational interventions related to gender and GBV. Themes identified through focus group discussions with staff also highlight the perceived strengths and challenges associated with CSVR's gender-related work. The report concludes with recommendations that staff viewed as having value for both internal and external audiences.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa

1095. Youth Inclusion in Socio-Economic and Livelihood Programmes: Potential for Fostering Social Cohesion and Violence Prevention in East and Southern Africa

Author:: Steven Rebello
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: In collaboration with the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS), Kenya, CSVR has been conducting research on the role of public employment and livelihood support programmes in fostering greater youth social and economic inclusion as well as violence prevention. By reviewing literature, select policies and programmes, this report highlights some of the key opportunities and challenges related to youth social and economic inclusion in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Youth, Violence, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa

1096. Governance, Social Policy, and Political Economy: Trends in Norway’s Partner Countries

Author:: Stein Sundstol Eriksen
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In 2017–2018, NUPI (the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) headed a project where political economy analyses were undertaken in eleven of Norway’s partner countries. These analyses were published as eleven separate reports. The reports focused on power relations and political developments in the partner countries, but they also analyzed the nature of governance. After the publication of the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2019, the MFA approached NUPI and requested that we summarize the findings of this report for Norway’s eleven partner countries and assess these findings in light of the political economy analyses. We were also asked to investigate whether there were any connections between the nature and quality of governance on the one hand, and the nature of social policies and the human rights situation on the other. This report presents the findings of this assessment of the governance scores in the light of the above-mentioned political economy analyses. The report is structured as follows: Firstly, after briefly describing the governance indictors used by the World Bank, we summarize the eleven countries’ scores on the various governance indicators. Secondly, we assess the evolution of governance in the eleven countries, by comparing the scores in the 2019 report with those from 2011. Thirdly, we summarize the findings of the political economy analyses of the eleven countries and discuss how they fit with the governance scores. Finally, we present the eleven countries’ expenditure on social policies, as reported in the ILOs World Social Protection Report, and the human rights situation for the partner countries, and then describe how these findings relate to the governance scores.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Norway

1097. Reviewing Jihadist Governance in the Sahel

Author:: Natasja Rupesinghe, Mikael Hiberg Naghizadeh, and Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The ways in which jihadist insurgents in the Sahel govern is rarely considered in the academic literature. They have often been portrayed as ‘Islamic terrorists’, who achieve their objectives by using brutal force against the civilian population and who finance their activities through criminal networks and activities. However, scattered empirical evidence reveals a different picture. Jihadist insurgents, like other insurgent groups, often use a variety of strategies to rule territory and populations. The scale, character and form of how such groups govern differs not only between countries but also at the sub-national level within the same group. Nevertheless, until recently jihadist insurgent governance in Africa and particularly the Sahel region has largely been overlooked. This synthesis reviews the existing literature on jihadist governance in West Africa, with a particular emphasis on the understudied region of the Sahel. The review is organised as follows: first, we clarify key concepts and provide definitions. Second, we provide a brief overview of Islam and politics in the Sahel, contextualising the rise of Salafist-jihadism as well as historical cases of jihadist governance. Third, we provide a brief overview of the literature and synthesise the existing research on jihadist insurgent governance in the Sahel. Fourth, we examine some key cases of jihadist governance in northern Mali, Nigeria and the Liptako-Gourma region straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Finally, we conclude by summarising our findings, discussing the implications for the study of civil war and insurgency and consider avenues for future research.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Governance, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa

1098. Broadening Opportunities for Study Abroad: U.S. Government Funded Scholarship Programs

Author:: Leah Mason and Jodi Sanger
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: This paper explores U.S. government scholarship opportunities available to U.S. students interested in an international experience, highlighting different sponsoring agencies. It analyzes how the scholarships support U.S. government programming goals of encouraging citizen diplomacy, strengthening national security, and building a globalized workforce. Case studies presented in this paper demonstrate the contributions of U.S. government scholarship programs to study abroad and the international experiences of U.S. students.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Education, Globalization, Government, National Security, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1099. The Rise of Remote Global Internships: Promising Practices and the Implications for Career Readiness

Author:: Leah Mason and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: This paper provides insight into the role of remote global internships in providing experiential educational opportunities for university students and the potential role these internships have in developing students' skills acquisition, global citizenship, and career readiness. The first section provides an overview of the definitions used to describe in-person and remote global internship experiences including relative benefits and challenges. It then outlines the three analytical frames of remote global internships: skills acquisition, global citizenship, and career readiness. Through an analysis of recent findings from global internship program providers as well as others, we describe promising practices for supporting remote global internships applicable to all members of the international education community – universities, employers, and third-party providers alike. This paper aims to contribute to the conversation on the possible role of remote global internships to widen the space of availability for students to gain international work experiences while remaining in their home country and the relative benefits of these experiences both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Study Abroad, and Internships
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1100. To Rescue Scholars is to Rescue the Future

Author:: IIE Scholar Rescue Fund
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: In 2002, IIE’s trustees launched the Scholar Rescue Fund (IIE-SRF) as the only global program that arranges and funds academic fellowships for threatened and displaced scholars worldwide. Nearly twenty years later, we are delighted to release a new study – made possible through the generous support of IIE Chairman Emeritus and IIE-SRF co-founder Dr. Henry Kaufman – that documents the far-reaching impacts and achievements of over 200 IIE-SRF alumni from 38 countries on their host and home communities and academic disciplines.
Topic:: Education, Higher Education, and Academia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS