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1831. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement

Author:
Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Mahamat Saleh Mangare
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Darfur’s fade-out from international headlines and Western interests over the past several years has fostered a false narrative that the conflict there is over, despite stark evidence to the contrary. Linked to this narrative, the paralysis of internal and international engagement on Darfur has compelled Darfurians—civilians and combatants alike—to increase their outward mobility in search of safety and livelihood opportunities in neighbouring African countries or further afield into Europe. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement, a new joint report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) projects analyzes several components and consequences of this increased mobility. The report finds that highly mobile Darfurian rebel groups have found fertile ground for lucrative activities such as cross-border smuggling in neighbouring countries—particularly Libya. The study also notes that the harsh conditions encountered in Libya by non-Arab Darfurian civilians have compelled many to seek asylum across the Mediterranean in Europe.
Topic:
Conflict, Smuggling, and Disengagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Darfur, and Libya

1832. Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa

Author:
Nicolas Florquin, Elodie Hainard, and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Even though states may not intentionally supply materiel to armed groups, a lack of stringent risk assessments on weapons and ammunition exports destined for areas prone to diversion can hamper efforts to curtail the broader illicit arms trade. The 2020 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s annual Trade Update, Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa, delves into cases of authorized small arms ammunition transfers to Africa through exploring the potential of beyond-the-norm data sources. Relying on peacekeeping operations, national customs, and civil society research, the case studies highlight ammunition imports from opaque exporters to countries affected by armed conflict, states subject to arms embargoes, and other areas on the continent equally prone to seeing arms and ammunition diverted from the licit to illicit markets. Ammunition accounted for 42 per cent of all authorized African small arms imports in 2017. Since countries with low transparency records do export ammunition to government forces in conflict-affected regions and such regions are prone to diversion, there is a gap in risk identification. Therefore, findings from the case studies emphasize the importance of exporters improving their reporting practices and carrying out stringent risk assessments. In addition, the leveraging of multiple data sources can enhance the monitoring of the authorized ammunition trade and help curb unauthorized activities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Crime, Markets, Peacekeeping, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa

1833. Radical Right Counter Narratives Expert Workshop Report

Author:
Hedayah
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report presents some of the overarching themes, key insights, and modes of practice discussed over the two-day workshop in order to convey current trends and best practices in the area of radical right extremist counter-narratives. This workshop report is one of the many deliverables produced as part of the Radical Right Counter Narrative Collection project, funded through the STRIVE Global program and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right.
Topic:
Radical Right, Political Extremism, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Europe, New Zealand, Global Focus, and United States of America

1834. GENDER AND PEACEMAKING STRATEGY

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The European Institute of Peace is scaling up its efforts to incorporate the Women, Peace and Security Agenda across its work. In order to do this the Institute has developed a “Gender and Peacemaking” Strategy. This will contribute to achieving our vision of a world where people live in safety and peace because conflicts and grievances are resolved through inclusive dialogue and lasting political agreements. The Institute is committed to ensuring that gender perspectives, women’s meaningful participation and protection of their rights are a central component of our work. By using the Women, Peace and Security Agenda as a framework for a localised and rights-based approach to conflict prevention, resolution and peacebuilding we can contribute to international efforts to prevent conflict and create a more sustainable peace.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

1835. TIME TO STEP UP EU MEDIATION?

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The need and scope for conflict resolution and mediation is going up. The numbers of people affected by violence and conflict is increasing. The world is disfigured by prolonged, internationalised civil wars and growing civil unrest. Great power politics are resurgent, the conventions regulating states’ behaviour are fraying, and international law and human rights are being eroded. Profound demographic and climatic changes, the emergence of new technologies and of threats are changing the global landscape in ways that should bring humanity together but too often are exploited for commercial and political gain, driving insecurity and a sense of injustice. The EU has an enormous role to play in this context. It is a powerful global actor pursuing multiple objectives on the world stage. It is committed to human rights, gender equity, sustainable development and a rules based global order, and to supporting others that are taking action, whether inter- governmental and regional bodies such as the UN and AU, or civil society including at the very local level. But the EU also recognises, as the High Representative has put it, the need to learn “to use the language of power”, to deploy its capabilities, whether political, security, economic or regulatory, more strategically to shape reality, address the agents and drivers of violence, and secure peace. So what should the EU’s role in mediation be in this context? The review of the EU’s concept on mediation provides an excellent opportunity to generate debate and to define the parameters of the future of EU mediation frameworks. This study provides a snapshot of the views within the Brussels diplomatic and policy community. Even within this relatively confined universe, there is a very broad diversity of opinions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Human Rights, Peacekeeping, European Union, Sustainability, Mediation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Europe

1836. THE SIDAMA’S QUEST FOR SELF-RULE: A STUDY OF THE REFERENDUM ON REGIONAL STATEHOOD

Author:
Kjetil Tronvoll, Filata Boroje, and Kairedin Tezera
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
On 14 and 15 January 2020, the European Institute of Peace presented a report entitled “Sidama’s quest for self-rule: a study of the referendum on regional statehood” in Addis Ababa, to an audience of politicians, policy makers, activists, academics and researchers, civil society organisations, and interested citizens of Ethiopia. This study, conducted by Professor Kjetil Tronvoll with Filata Boroje and Kairedin Tezera on behalf of the Institute, assesses the referendum that was held among inhabitants of the Sidama zone Ethiopia on 20 November 2019.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Nation-State, Autonomy, Independence, and Statehood
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1837. Western Balkans in 2020

Author:
Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our researchers, Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová, analyse elections in Serbia, Croatia, Northern Macedonia and Montenegro in four policy papers and offer recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU's enlargement policy. In this report, EUROPEUM’s two researchers – Jana Juzová and Žiga Faktor – analyze each of the four elections from these perspectives in four policy papers, offering succinct dissections of the elections themselves, as well as what they portend for the future of the region and the EU’s enlargement policy. Based on their analyses, they offer policy recommendations designed to strengthen the EU enlargement policy in a tailor-made approach rather than the hitherto “one size fits all”-approach that has proven dysfunctional not only from the perspective of future enlargement, but also retrospectively during the last enlargement wave in 2004. The enlargement policy may be seen as marginalized today, yet the enlargement policy is not solely a policy of enlargement; it is a window into the state of the EU, as well as the soul of Europe itself. It is therefore my pleasure to invite interested readers to read more about the 2020 developments in the Western Balkans, offering both valuable insights about the region itself, and an opportunity to thoughtfully consider what role the EU and Europe should play in a changing world marred by instability and upheaval.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Croatia, and Montenegro

1838. Continuity and Change in Iraq’s Sunni Politics: Sunni Arab Political Trends, Factions, and Personalities Since 2014

Author:
Kirk H. Sowell
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The year 2014 was a horrible one for Iraq. The national election held in April was preceded by two ominous trends: an increasingly strong, armed insurgency from the Sunni Arab population and an increasingly sharp sectarian conflict within the mainstream political system, driven by actions of both the Shia Islamist-dominated government and Sunni Arab political leaders. A divisive election with a disputed result was followed by a strong insurgency, and while both pan-Arab and Iraqi Sunni media tended to frame it as a “revolution” driven by oppressed Sunni tribesmen, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS), a brutal terrorist group with a globalist Salafi-Jihadist ideology, was its primary driver. The crucible event of the year was the fall of Mosul, Iraq’s most populous Sunni-majority city in the northwest province of Nineveh, to ISIS jihadists on June 10. The city did not fall without resistance, as is sometimes said, as federal police units fought a four-day gun battle for the city, while army divisions, including two garrisoned right outside the city, watched on. Once resistance in the city collapsed, several Iraqi army divisions, weakened by sectarian divisions and riddled with corruption, collapsed almost overnight, and terrorists overran much of northern and western Iraq. These events were a watershed for Iraq, and especially for its Sunni Arab population, and it is Sunni Arab politics since 2014 which is the focus of this chapter.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Sectarianism, Elections, Sunni, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1839. Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics

Author:
Aaron Stein
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Republic of Iraq has faced considerable challenges after the American-led invasion in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, ranging from insurgency to endemic corruption and poor government services. Baghdad has emerged as the epicenter of a broader geopolitical struggle between the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran, two hostile adversaries at odds since the Islamic Revolution toppled the American-friendly Shah in 1979. Amidst these broader challenges, Iraq faced an existential security threat in 2014, after the Islamic State gained strength in Syria, augmented its ranks with foreign fighters, and took control over eastern Syria and parts of western Iraq, including the Iraqi city of Mosul, the country’s second largest city. The war to defeat this group was brutal and fraught, with the Iraqi military bearing the brunt of the casualties fighting for control over densely populated urban areas and vast expanses of desert terrain. The fighting consumed Iraqi affairs for years, blunted the sharp tensions that underpin U.S.-Iran relations, and focused military efforts on the defeat of a common enemy. In the year since the defeat of the Islamic State, the American role in Iraq has become less clear. The United States has undertaken an aggressive policy, dubbed “Maximum Pressure,” to economically coerce the Iranian government to make a series of concessions, including limits on the development of ballistic missiles and foreign policy changes. This effort included the American withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multi-national agreement that placed considerable limits on Iran’s nuclear program and instituted an expansive inspection regime to verify the terms of the deal in exchange for Iran receiving American and European sanctions relief. The Trump administration’s decision to reimpose sanctions severely complicated the arrangement, depriving Iran of the reward for its compliance and setting in motion a series of Iranian steps to try to coerce Europe to continue to uphold trade with the Islamic Republic. The United States, however, has threatened to sanction European entities should they not comply with American policy. The tensions over sanctions have had a deleterious effect on stability in Iraq and the Middle East, more broadly. The Iranian government has gradually increased its efforts to impose a cost on the United States for using sanctions to end its export of oil, beginning with a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating to include missile strikes on important oil centers in Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais, and then a shooting down an American surveillance drone. In response to rocket attacks inside Iraq, the United States has struck Iraqi militia’s linked to Iran and, in January 2020, assassinated Major General Qasem Soleimani, the now-deceased leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iranian-linked actor that oversaw Iraqi militias sympathetic to the Islamic Republic. In retaliation, the Iranian military fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at bases in Iraq, striking targets with precision, but luckily resulting in no American deaths. The strikes still resulted in over one hundred cases of traumatic brain injury in the soldiers at the targeted bases. The tit-for-tat underscores Iran’s appetite for risk, particularly at time when its economy is under siege from U.S. actions.
Topic:
Politics, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Sunni, Transition, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

1840. The Russian Way of War in Syria: Implications for the West

Author:
Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Russian Federation’s intervention in Syria is a watershed event. However the war there ends, its impact on Russia is likely to be profound. For the first time in its post-Soviet history, Russia’s military is fighting outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. In doing so, it is exercising military capabilities that had atrophied from long lack of use. Moscow is also rebuilding its diplomatic muscle through its role in Syria by managing a diverse coalition, leading a parallel peace process, and forcing the United States to take the Kremlin’s preferences into account when making decisions in the Middle East. Through Syria, Russia has reemerged on the geopolitical stage. The war is not over, and there are many ways in which things could still go badly for Russia. Moscow may find that a return to geopolitical prominence entails costs and risks at least as great as the rewards that status brings. Nevertheless, the West will be dealing with a Russia that has changed fundamentally through its experience in the war. Understanding these changes and their implications for Western governments is the focus of this conclusion chapter. It is structured around two questions. First, what does Syria tell us about how Russia fights its wars? Second, how has Russia’s experience in Syria affected the capabilities of its armed forces? Answering these questions should increase our understanding of Russia as a geopolitical actor and allow Western governments to make more effective policy on issues where Russia is a factor.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Armed Forces, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria