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1. No Going Back: Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring

Author:
Roy Gutman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
nterviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the third essay in the series, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Roy Gutman opens up the floor for prominent activists to share their observations and lessons learned a decade after the Arab Spring. With a focus on six countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen—this paper shows that despite widespread disappointment with the eventual results of the uprisings, the desire for change persists, the fear barrier has been broken, and hope prevails that a new generation of reformers will ultimately deliver lasting change to the region.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, Civil Unrest, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

2. Q&A with CCAS Assistant Professor Killian Clarke

Author:
Vicki Valosik and Killian Clarke
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Last fall, CCAS was pleased to welcome our newest core faculty member, political scientist Dr. Killian Clarke. Assistant Professor Clarke’s research centers around protest, revolution, and regime change in the Middle East and beyond. He has written about the causes of Egypt’s 2011 revolution, protest and unrest in Syrian refugee camps, pro-democracy social movements in Egypt, and processes of democratization in the post-colonial world. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, World Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Mediterranean Politics, and Comparative Politics. Dr. Clarke is currently writing a book on counterrevolution, which uses the case of Egypt’s 2013 coup and an original global dataset on counterrevolution to explain why some revolutionary governments are toppled by counterrevolutions whereas others go on to establish durable and long-lasting regimes. The graduate-level courses he is currently teaching for CCAS include “Comparative Politics of the Middle East” and “Revolutions in the Middle East.” Dr. Clarke earned his PhD from Princeton University and holds an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from NYU’s Hagop Kevorkian Center and a BA from Harvard University. Prior to joining CCAS, he was a Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow with the Weatherhead Scholars Program at Harvard University. He has kindly agreed to answer a few questions about his research and teaching.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Protests, Interview, and Counterrevolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Egypt

3. Washington and the Next Arab Spring

Author:
Sarah Feuer and David Schenker
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Should protests grow more destabilizing, the United States will need to balance its values and interests regarding bilateral ties, the popular movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the second essay of the series, Sarah Feuer, David Schenker, and their coauthors discuss the resurgence of protest activity across the region, the result of deteriorating economic circumstances and abysmal governance, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic. Should protests become more destabilizing, the authors explain, the United States—before taking any action—will need to carefully balance its values and interests with respect to bilateral ties, the protest movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Arab Spring, Protests, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

4. The Politics of Pandemics. Evolving Regime-Opposition Dynamics in the MENA Region

Author:
Karim Mezran, Annalisa Perteghella, Nadereh Chamlou, Gawdat Bahgat, Abbas Kadhim, Hafsa Halawa, Yahia Mohamed, Lemine Mestek, and Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time, as many countries in the MENA region remain engulfed in vicious internal conflicts or must cope with structural socio-economic distress and popular dissent. In many respects, such a context and many of its problems resemble those that formed the backdrop for the Arab Spring in 2011. Exactly like what happens with humans, who are hit the hardest when presenting pre-existing conditions, MENA states have been impacted because of their own pre-existing conditions. In this sense, the Covid-19 pandemic has laid bare all the vulnerabilities and deficiencies of these states’ structures, and has aggravated pre-existing political, social, and economic shortcomings. How has the pandemic impacted state structures? What is its effect on organized protests and spontaneous popular movements? What are the possible long-term consequences?
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, and Gulf Cooperation Council

5. Fragile States Index 2019

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Fragile States, Political stability, Arab Spring, Peace, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Caucasus, Middle East, Brazil, Yemen, South America, Central America, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritius, and Global Focus

6. Politics and Social Media in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Trust in Online Information

Author:
Jason Wee and Sophie Li
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Political interest has decreased and plateaued post-Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa, possibly due to political fatigue. Moving from 2006-2013 to 2016-2018, citizens reporting interest in politics has decreased by 11 points. In spite of this, MENA citizens are more informed about political events in their countries relative to their interest in politics. Those with higher education were more likely to be politically informed and interested, but no consistent trend was found across age groups. • Across MENA, citizens have been consistently finding politics too complicated (74 percent in 2018). Besides highly educated Egyptians and Kuwaitis who had greater ease in navigating politics, only minor dierences were observed across years, education levels and age groups. • Almost all MENA Internet users use social media for at least 2 hours a day, with nearly half of them being heavy users. Facebook has the largest and widest spread of users, capturing 74 percent of the region’s Internet users. • Social media has captured a significant share of the political information market, with 36 percent of MENA citizens citing social media as their primary source of information for breaking news. Five-in-ten of both youth and those with higher education preferred using social media to tune into political events. Greater trust in social media over traditional media var-ied greatly across countries, potentially due to the dierences in level of statecontrol of the latter. • Overall, these findings from nationally representative public opinion surveys carried out by the Arab Barometer carry important implications for the future use of social media in mobilizing Arab citizens in political causes.
Topic:
Internet, Social Media, Arab Spring, Digital Culture, Digital Policy, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

7. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Huseyin Emre Ceyhun
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Levels of social capital, which is often operationalized by measures of trust, have changed significantly in the Middle East and North Africa over the past 15 years. The 2011 uprisings marked a critical juncture for atrophying, status-quo statesociety relations: citizens questioned the nature of governance while governments grappled with reinvigorated demands of citizenship. These demands were not fully met, however, and peaceful transitions towards democracy did not ensue. Instead, many countries experienced significant conflict, including proxy-wars resulting from interests of regional powers and sectarian differences. As of 2019, Tunisia remained as the only country that is on a democratic but fragile path toward a democratic consolidation. In this context and over a 13 year period (2006-2019), the Arab Barometer can present an overarching picture of how political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East have changed in the years surrounding the 2011 Arab uprisings. With few exceptions, political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East has been decreasing, demonstrating the extent of anti-establishment feelings nurtured in societies. However, trust in legal systems has not decreased as much as trust in political institutions such as government and parliament. These findings suggest that despite widespread lack of confidence in governments and parliaments, ordinary citizens have not entirely given up on existing systems of governance. These patterns are clearly evident in Tunisia, the only country generally considered to have fully undertaken a democratic transition after the Arab uprisings. All measures of trust show a similar declining trend for political and interpersonal trust in Tunisia since 2011. As of 2018, only 20 percent of Tunisians trust the government, compared with 14 percent who trust parliament, and only 8 percent who have high levels of interpersonal trust. However, trust in the legal system (48 percent) is virtually unchanged between 2011 and 2018, suggesting that Tunisians might still be still committed to the system brought about by the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Citizenship, Arab Spring, Proxy War, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

8. Artist Q&A

Author:
Vicki Valosik and Helen Zughaib
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Helen Zughaib, currently based in Washington D.C., is known for her colorful gouache works that emphasize hope and human dignity, even while depicting themes of mass displacement, political upheaval, and war. Born in Beirut but forced to evacuate during the 1975 civil war, Zughaib spent much of her life in Europe and other parts of the Middle East before coming to the United States to earn her BFA at Syracuse University’s College of Visual and Performing Arts. Her art has been exhibited at museums, galleries, embassies, and in private collections around the world, including at the White House, the Library of Congress, and the World Bank. Zughaib has served as a U.S. State Department Cultural Envoy to Europe and the Middle East and was recently awarded a grant from the D.C. Commission on the Arts and Humanities. In November, she gave a talk at CCAS on her visual documentation of the Arab Spring, after which she shared the following reflections on her work.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, Arab Spring, and Memory
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, North America, Washington, and D.C.

9. Amplifying Voices, Responding to Crises: Media Technology and the Arab Spring

Author:
Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Well before the Arab Spring protests erupted in late 2010, people in the Arab world were accessing the Internet and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter at rapidly growing rates. These platforms became perfectly poised to amplify the demands that would soon be voiced and, in the wake of the Arab Spring, would become impossible to ignore.
Topic:
Mass Media, Media, Internet, Arab Spring, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

10. The Revolutionary Seeds of Mass Media

Author:
Sania El-Husseini
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
The development and spread of mass media throughout the Middle East over the past two decades—starting with satellite television stations, which took national narratives out from under state control, and followed by social media, which gave voice to the masses—is widely considered a key factor leading to the eruption of the Arab revolutions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Mass Media, Democracy, Internet, Arab Spring, Journalism, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

11. Q&A with Political Cartoonist Khalid Albaih

Author:
Vicki Valosik and Khalid Albaih
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Khalid Albaih (@khalidalbaih) is a Sudanese artist and political cartoonist born in Bucharest, Romania. Albaih is based in Doha, where he formerly served as Head of Public Art for Qatar Museums Authority. He currently lives and works in Denmark as the ICORN/PEN Artist in Residence for the city of Copenhagen. Albaih’s cartoons, published under the name “Khartoon!”—a play on the words “cartoon” and “Khartoum,” the capital of Sudan—have appeared widely in international publications including The New York Times, The Atlantic, PRI, NPR, and BBC. In addition, Albaih has published social and political commentaries in The Guardian and Al Jazeera, among other places. His work has been exhibited in numerous group and solo exhibitions around the world, from New Delhi and Tokyo, to London, Boston, and Dearborn, to name only a few. Khalid is also the founder of @DohaFashionFridays and cofounder of Khartoum Art & Design Center.
Topic:
Politics, Arts, Internet, Social Media, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

12. Tunisia’s Fraying Governing Coalition Threatens to Undermine CVE/CT Strategy

Author:
Geoffrey P. Macdonald and Luke Waggoner
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The October suicide bombing in the heart of Tunis demonstrated the continued need for Tunisia’s government to refine and bolster its efforts to combat violent extremism. Yet, instability within the ruling coalition threatens to undermine much-needed reforms to Tunisia’s countering violent extremism (CVE) and counterterrorism (CT) strategies, which fail to address the underlying drivers of radicalization. The public’s rising expectations for economic and social progress following Tunisia’s 2011 revolution, which deposed Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s authoritarian government, have not been met. This has fostered disillusionment regarding democracy’s efficacy and has fed the rise of anti-establishment ideologies such as Islamic extremism. Only a stable governing coalition can develop CVE/CT polices that more effectively obstruct the path to radicalization and redress the persistent governance failures that inspire violent extremism.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Violent Extremism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

13. Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa: Five Years after the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Natalya Rahman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), eight-in-ten Arabs believe that democracy is the best system of government, even though it may have problems. This perception seems to have increased in most countries from 2013 to 2016. • There also appears to be consensus regarding the economic performance under democratic government: Less than one third across the region believe that economic performance is weak under democratic governance. • However, Arab views on the flaws of democracies are mixed: One third believe that democracy is ineffective in maintaining stability; four-in-ten think that democracy is indecisive; almost every other person says that the people of their country are not ready for democracy. • With the exception of Palestinians and Algerians, Arab publics predominantly evaluate their countries as more democratic in 2016. They seem to be more skeptical regarding the suitability of democracy to their countries in 2016.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

14. Transitional Justice in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Center for International and Regional Studies
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:
Following the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, many had high hopes not only for democratization but also for transitional justice to address the myriad abuses that had taken place in the region, both during the uprisings and for decades prior to them. Despite these hopes, most of the transitions in the region have stalled, along with the possibility of transitional justice. This volume is the first to look at this process and brings together leading experts in the fields of human rights and transitional justice, and in the history, politics and justice systems of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. While these countries have diverse histories, political institutions, and experiences with accountability, most have experienced non-transition, stalled transition, or political manipulation of transitional justice measures, highlighting the limits of such mechanisms. These studies should inform reflection not only on the role of transitional justice in the region, but also on challenges to its operation more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Law, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

15. The Revolution Turns Five: Faculty reflections on the fifth anniversary of the Arab uprisings

Author:
Fida Adely, Michael Hudson, Joseph Sassoon, Noureddine Jebnoun, Marwa Daoudy, Emad El-Din Shahin, and Rochelle A. Davis
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
In this fifth year anniversary of the Arab revolts or “Arab Spring,” we might ask ourselves “what has changed in the region?” Given the conflicts raging in the Arab world as we speak, many have concluded that the revolts failed, or that rather than bringing “progress” they have pushed us back—entrenching authoritarianism, displacing millions, exacerbating sectarian differences, etc. But such conclusions reflect a short view of history and a truncated understanding of change. More troublesome, they can fuel a view of the region as unchanging, stagnant, and even backward.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, Social Movement, Economy, Arab Spring, Youth, Syrian War, Revolution, and Counterrevolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

16. How Sectarian Conflicts Overtook the Arab Spring

Author:
Alexander Henley
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Reflections on the problem of sectarianism in the wake of the Arab Revolutions from CCAS’ inaugural American Druze Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow. Why has Sunni-Shi’i sectarianism become the leading issue of debate in Middle East politics over the last few years? Led by rival Sunni and Shi’i theocracies, Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively, the region seems to have fallen into opposing camps in a sectarian cold war. Along the fault-lines in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, Sunnis and Shi’is are fighting for supremacy, backed and incited by coreligionists across the region. The Middle East is in a lamentable state, but this is not— despite what we are increasingly told by news media and political leaders—its natural state. The Middle East’s problems are not “rooted in conflicts that date back millennia,” the excuse President Obama used to explain away foreign policy failures in his final State of the Union address. Phrases like “ancient conflict” or “deep-rooted hatreds”—heard more and more commonly—do not explain the actions of our contemporaries in the Middle East any more than they do yours or mine. And they certainly don’t explain why sectarianism, which emerged as a central feature of regional politics only in the past decade, is so new.
Topic:
Islam, Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Ethnicity, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and North America

17. Five Years Of Conflict Brings New Normals In Damascus

Author:
Benan Grams
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
After four years of being unable to travel to see my home and family in Damascus during what Syrians refer to as “The Crisis,” I am now visiting them for the third time in recent months. The political chaos that swept the country between 2011 and 2015 created high levels of uncertainty about who might be perceived as a threat to the regime, while the deteriorating security conditions elevated the risk of kidnapping and blackmailing. Although for an outsider, the situation does not seem to have become any safer, Syrians, particularly in Damascus, have learned to adapt to the current situation and find a sense of stability in the chaos.
Topic:
Security, Arab Spring, Syrian War, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, Syria, and Damascus

18. Syrian Scholar Finds Safe Haven at CCAS: A Conversation with Visiting Lecturer Mohammad AlAhmad

Author:
Will Todman, Mohammad AlAhmad, and Dana Dairani
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
On April 22, 2015, CCAS Visiting Lecturer Dr. Mohammad AlAmad and his family left their home and lives in Syria behind. “Human smugglers drove us to the Turkish border,” says AlAhmad, “and then my wife and I carried our two young children, walking through barbed wire and muddy water into Turkey. We were full of trepidation, fear, and the pain of being displaced.” Though AlAhmad left Syria because he had been accepted to participate in the Institute of International Education’s Scholar Rescue Fund, which provides support for threatened scholars and places them with visiting appointments at partner academic institutions, he did not yet know his family’s ultimate destination. Once in Turkey, AlAhmad learned that his appointment would be at Georgetown, starting in August.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Refugees, Islamic State, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Literature, Revolution, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Raqqa

19. Remembering and Making History in Egypt

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Dr. Hoda Elsadda has spent years documenting history—as it has been lived and experienced by women in Egypt—but this time she’s the one making history. Elsadda, a Professor of English and Comparative Literature at Cairo University and current Carnegie Foundation Centennial Fellow at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, served on the “Committee of 50” delegates who wrote the historic 2014 Egyptian constitution.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

20. The League of Arab States: Human Rights Standards and Mechanisms

Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
With the Arab region in a state of flux, the League of Arab States seems poised to play a much-needed role on issues such as peace, security, and human rights in Arab countries. Until now, this role has been far from consistent or guided by a genuine human rights agenda. However, a closer look at the Arab League during the recent crises in the region reveals a slow shift in its positioning, highlighting the importance for civil society to engage with the Arab League and influence policies and reform in the region. Interest in the work of the Arab League is not new to civil society in the region. Civil society organizations have, for example, engaged very closely with the process of revising the Arab Charter on Human Rights. They have also worked with the League on the Darfur and Syria crises. However, this engagement has been fragmented, and at times not driven by a clear strategy. Therefore, this engagement and its impact can be strengthened through effective strategies and mechanisms. It is, therefore, paramount that the Arab League reform its relationship with civil society, and at the same time for civil society to improve its own relationship with the Arab League. The ultimate goal is better protection of human rights in Arab countries. This manual has been produced with these challenges and opportunities in mind. It aims at providing information to activists in the civil society movement, especially those working in the human rights field, on the structures, standards, and mechanisms of the Arab League relating to human rights. Better understanding of these issues can only contribute to better engagement with the Arab League, and therefore the ability to influence and reform the organization.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Reform, Arab Spring, State Violence, Revolution, and Arab League
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

21. Libya: A Transition Threatened by the Jamahiriyya Legacy (Libye : une transition à l’épreuve du legs de la Jamahiriyya)

Author:
Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
In post-Qadhafi Libya, the authorities are in search of a new art of governing. Despite the legitimacy accorded them by elections, they remain very weak. Without any means of coercion, they are constantly obliged to negotiate for their survival, threatened by those who were not chosen by voters but who instead draw their legitimacy from their participation in the revolution – the militias. The challenge facing the Libyan authorities is not so much to combat these forces but to harness them. Libya has not undertaken a process of “de-Qadhafication.” But for the militias, in particular the Islamists, the presence of former officials and leaders in the state apparatus is intolerable. Thus, on May 5, 2013 they pressured the parliament into passing a law excluding from politics persons who occupied positions of responsibility under the old regime. If the revolutionary brigades continue to impose their will on the government, the fall of Qadhafi’s regime will have not brought about political change in Libya but rather the continuation of former political practices under a new guise.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Arab Spring, Political outlook, Protests, and State
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

22. EU-Turkey Relations: Towards a Constructive Re-engagement?

Author:
Aycan Akdeniz
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report is written by Aycan Akdeniz who is a political analyst at the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to Turkey. This report analyzes the “cautious optimism” elicited by the recent developments after a long period of stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. Written in a period after the opening of Chapter 22 through the lifting of the French veto and the publication of the 16. Progress Report, the report examines the effects of the euro crisis, the “Arab Spring”, the Cyprus Issue and the Gezi Park protests on the future of Turkey-EU relations and draws conclusions on what is needed to be done by both sides for a constructive re-engagement between Turkey and the EU. Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği(AB) Türkiye Delegasyonu’ndan Aycan Akdeniz tarafından hazırlanmıştır. Rapor Türkiye-AB ilişkilerinin tıkanma noktasına geldiği bir dönemin ardından son gelişmeler ışığında ortaya çıkan “temkinli iyimserlik” ortamını değerlendirmektedir. 22. Başlık’ın Fransa’nın vetosunu kaldırmasıyla açıldığı ve 16. İlerleme Raporu’nun yayımlandığı bir dönemde yazılan bu rapor euro krizi, “Arap Baharı”, Kıbrıs sorunu ve Gezi protestolarının Türkiye-AB ilişkileri ve ilişkilerinin geleceği üzerinde etkisini ve bu ilişkilerin güçlenmesi için tarafların ne yapması gerektiğini incelemektedir.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

23. On The New Vision for the Egyptian Foreign Policy After the Revolution

Author:
Amr Darrag
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Dr. Amr Darrag is the member of the Executive Board and the Chairperson of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) in Egypt. In his article “On The New Vision for the Egyptian Foreign Policy After the Revolution” he shares his party’s visions for a prosperous and stabilized Egypt. As a member of the Party, Dr.Darrag provides a roadmap with main foreign policy objectives to achieve an imperative role in the international arena. The article also sheds light on the Egypt-Turkey partnership for their development in the economic and political platforms. Dr.Amr Darrag, Mısır’daki Özgürlük ve Adalet Partisi’nin yürütme kurulu üyesi ve partinin Dış İlişkiler Komitesi başkanıdır. “On the New Vision for the Egyptian Foreign Policy After the Revolution” başlıklı makalesinde kalkınmış ve istikrarlı bir Mısır için partisinin ortaya koyduğu vizyonu paylaşmaktadır. Aynı zamanda partinin bir üyesi olarak, uluslararası alanda önemli ve kalıcı bir aktör olmak yolunda izlenecek temel dış politika hedefleri için bir yol haritası sunmaktadır. Makale ekonomik ve siyasi platformlarda Mısır-Türkiye arasındaki ilişkilerin geliştirilmesi için de öneriler içermektedir. Makale yalnızca İngilizce olarak yayınlanmıştır.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

24. Failed States Index 2013: The Book

Author:
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Krista Hendry, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Sebastian Pavlou, and Felipe Umana
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Fragile/Failed State, Arab Spring, Peace, State Building, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Global Focus

25. Le rêve arabe de la Turquie brisé par la crise syrienne (The Syrian Crisis Shatters Turkey’s Arab Dream)

Author:
Bayram Balci
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
For ideological and practical reasons the AKP government, in power since November 2002, has engaged in a policy of progressive integration of Turkey into the Muslim, and more particularly, the Arab world. This policy has been facilitated by the country’s booming economy and assertive foreign policy. Turkey, whose government embraced a political ideology similar to those, brought to power by the Arab Spring, benefitted greatly from the ideological effects of the Arab Spring. These benefits were enhanced by the fact that the political ideology of those brought to power by the « Arab Spring » was similar to that of the AKP. Turkey appeared to be becoming a model for the Arab world. However, the crisis in Syria, a country central to Turkey’s Arab policy, and the inability of the Turkish government to remain neutral has put an end to Turkey’s Arab dream. Turkish engagement in the Syrian crisis has caused deterioration in Turkey’s relations with a number of its neighbors and forced it to renew ties with its traditional western allies from whom it had hoped to distance itself in order to be an independent regional and international player.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

26. The Politics of Employment Policy Reform in the Gulf States (Les enjeux des réformes des politiques de l’emploi dans les monarchies du Golfe)

Author:
Laurence Louer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the first decade of the 21st century the Gulf States undertook reforms of their social policies based on the generous redistribution of hydrocarbon profits. One of the elements of the redistribution was to guarantee of employment. Beginning in the 1990s rising unemployment indicated that the traditional employment policies were ineffective, generating social tensions as evidenced in the "Arab spring". The goal of the reforms is to move nationals into salaried jobs in the private sector, currently held largely by foreign workers. The change is strongly opposed by business executives and local entrepreneurs. Having become accustomed to inexpensive foreign workers they object to the increased costs entailed by the reforms. The royal families are thus obliged to negotiate between the interests of the private sector, often aligned with their own, and the dissatisfaction of the young, the group most impacted by unemployment and the key players in the protests that erupted in 2011 in Bahrain, Saudi-Arabia and Oman.
Topic:
Civil Society, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Arab Spring, Social Policy, Identities, State, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

27. A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis

Author:
Doğan Ertuğrul
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
“A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis “is written by the Star Newspaper columnist Doğan Ertuğrul. Ertuğrul, who has been working on Iran, northern Iraq and the Kurdish issue for over 10 years, has produced numerous research papers and articles concerning the political system in Iran, Iranian Kurds and other minorities as well as political groups in northern Iraq. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria since March 2011 and elaborates on Turkish and Iranian policies towards Syria. It further examines the competition between Tehran and Ankara along with the perception of Turkey in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

28. Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios

Author:
Atilla Sandikli and Bilgehan Emeklier
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The Middle East region has undergone a rapid transformation period in recent years. Iran’s nuclear program may bring the US-Iranian relations to the verge of close combat. Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities may trigger a series of conflicts. Due to the sanctions imposed upon Iran because of its nuclear program, the country is getting more and more isolated and feels under threat. What could be the possible reactions of an Iran that sees itself as threatened? The US withdrew from Iraq and as a result of the popular movements, the Middle East administrations are changing hands one by one. The region has started to teem with uncertainties and risks. On one hand, there is a wish for freedom, democracy, human rights, rule of law, free market, and fair income distribution. On the other hand, an abundance of conflicts and blood is being seen. What will these developments bring about? Could Iran, as an important player in the area, transform this uncertainty into an opportunity for itself? This report named “Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios” focuses on paradigms which direct Iran’s geopolitical features and foreign policy, paying particular attention to elements of continuity, drastic differences and ruptures in Iran. There are certain scenarios on how Iran, which feels under threat, will evaluate and make use of sensitivities and opportunities appearing with the US withdrawal from Iraq and the Arab Spring. The report also pays special emphasis to the fact that Iran stands at the center of all these scenarios, potentially leading to chaos in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Social Movement, Geopolitics, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

29. Challenges to Turkey’s Soft Power in the Middle East

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
TESEV’s public opinion surveys in the Arab world that were conducted in 2009 and 2010 demonstrated that Turkey’s attractiveness has been quite high in the region. This attractiveness is due to the perception of Turkish foreign policy; the view of Turkey’s political and economic transformation as a success story; and Turkey’s cultural products. These characteristics point to a possibility of Turkey’s soft power in the region. The question remains, however, how Turkey exercises its soft power, an issue that has become all the more relevant as a result of the Arab Spring. In this article, Meliha Benli Altunışık analyses the influence of Turkey’s “soft power” in the Arab World under “Turkey’s Attractiveness”, “Challenges”, and “The Arab Spring and Turkey” subtitles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Spring, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

30. Turkey’s Image in the Arab World

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The author of this article, Paul Salem states that Turkey’s image in the Arab World (and Iran) became positive in past few years which was negative among the people of the Arab World (and Iran) throughout the 20th century. TESEV’s second survey of public opinion in the Arab world (and Iran) confirms this transformation. The positive opinion includes Turkey as a political, economic and social model; Turkey’s regional mediation and investment; and its popular culture. The TESEV survey shows that the people of the region are very positively inclined toward Turkey, and this implies that they would be favorable to a broader Turkish role that goes beyond confronting Israel, and toward helping the societies of the region move more steadily toward democratic change and economic development. Paul Salem concludes that as the people of the region rebel in favor of democratic change, Turkey certainly has even more potential and responsibility in the Arab World.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

31. Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Uprising

Author:
Atilla Sandıklı and Emin Salihi
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
With the Arab Spring, the nature of the ruling parties has changed and the authoritarian regimes have started to be dethroned in the Middle East. These have resulted in a transformation process in the political geography of the region. The ruling parties in the Middle East that had been at the hands of a small elite or a certain sectarian groups for a long period of time have changed hands as a result of people’s movements or they have been forced to make reforms in the direction of democratization. The Shia Crescent, which has prospered with the rise of the Shia factor and become more apparent, has come to be a crucial dynamic for Iran’s clout in the region. The report “Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Spring” mainly focuses on these issues: Iran’s foreign policy line as of 1979, the Shia factors in Middle Eastern countries, Iran’s influence on these factors, and Tehran’s attitudes and the movements in the face of the rebel movements in the Arab world. Moreover, the report assesses Iran’s reactions to the people’s movements in the Arab countries along with its aims in the direction of the Shia Crescent. Within this scope, it analyses Tehran’s different stance towards the rebellion that has erupted against the Syria’s ruling party, the Nusayris [Alawis], and how iTehranhas supported the current regime in Damascus.
Topic:
Religion, Sectarianism, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

32. Initial Impact of the Democratic Protests in the Arab World for the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Boryana Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
This report explores the correlation between the democratic protests in the Arab world and the Middle East negotiation process. In this sense, the content concentrates primarily on the development of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation track as the central line of the IsraeliArab relations. Impressive in its domestic political nature and decisive in its immediate ruling consequences, has the dissent in Northern Africa and beyond produced any effect on the already long-lasting Israeli-Palestinian antagonism and its regulation? Can we expect a change in the pat situation, which had been formed at the end of 2010 after the fall of the Tunisian and the Egyptian regimes and the revolts following in the neighbour countries? Where and how are the crossing points between the internal and external negotiation context in the respective regional environment to be defined? Taking into account the specific regional, international/global and local dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian contention, the answer to the questions above will be pursued by examining the new geopolitical map of the Middle East, the behaviour of the most influential third party for this particular conflict – the government of the United States of America, as well as the unfolding of the local Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics before and after the events in the region.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries