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Begin New Search Topic Elections Political Geography Middle East Content Type Special Report Publication Year within 25 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

1. Turkey: The beginning of the next phase of autocratization or the revival of democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In May 2023, Turkey will hold the most critical elections since the founding of the Republic 100 years ago. For the first time in 20 years in power, public polls point at an electoral defeat of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What does the crisis and potential demise of President Erdoğan mean for Turkey? Is this the beginning of a next phase of autocratization or the chance for transition to democracy? Autocratization came gradually after recurrent electoral victories of the ruling AKP. The executive takeover (Svolik 2019) has entailed the colonization of state institutions, the control of the judiciary, the mainstreaming of media, the curtailment of democratic rights and liberties and the reorganization of business capital. Authoritarianism reached a new level after the failed coup attempt of 2016 and introduction of a presidential system in 20181. Ever since executive powers are united in the hands of the president. He can rule with executive orders, appoint ministers and bureaucrats and redesign institutions and ministries without the approval of the parliament. Parliament was weakened and checks and balances largely elimitnated. Independent state institutions such as the Supreme Election Committee, the Regulatory Radio and Televison Authority or the Central Bank have lost their autonomy. Without exception, they are all led by loyal supporters who are appointed by the president.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, AKP, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2. The New Iraqi Opposition: The anti-establishment movement after the 2021 elections

Author:
Marsin Alshamary
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
At the start of Iraq’s longest government formation process in October 2021, one key question on everyone’s mind was whether Iraq might get its first majoritarian government. The Sadrist Movement tried for months, but ultimately Muqtada Al-Sadr conceded defeat by calling on his MPs to resign. The result was another consensus government with all the traditional political parties sharing the spoils, minus the Sadrists. A second key question on everyone’s mind was whether a genuine parliamentary opposition could develop in Iraq given the election of many independent MPs and the rise of reformist parties. This brief outlines the conditions needed for such a parliamentary opposition to emerge, discusses both technical and political elements, and analyses the challenges facing the ‘new Iraqi opposition’, i.e. veteran independent politicians, civil society activists and even former members of established parties. It argues that a sound electoral environment, unification of reformist parties and a higher turnout can contribute to making meaningful opposition a reality, which is needed to confront Iraq’s collusive democracy.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

3. Erdoğan’s Reelection Illustrates the Bleak Future of Turkish Democracy

Author:
Michael Werz
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Turkey saw unprecedented political mobilization, partly because going to the ballot box offered one of the last opportunities to make one’s voice heard. But little changed.
Topic:
National Security, Elections, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4. Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections

Author:
Aurélien Denizeau
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey. The general elections (parliamentary and presidential) will take place on May 14 and are unanimously considered to be crucial for the political future of the country. The electoral campaign is polarized around two major coalitions: the People’s Alliance, led by the presidential AKP and the MHP, which supports the re-election of President Erdoğan; and the Nation Alliance, formed by the main Kemalist party CHP with five other parties, and supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a presidential candidate. Two other coalitions are also present and could tip the election one way or the other: the Labor and Freedom Alliance, centered around the progressive and pro-Kurdish HDP, and the Ancestral Alliance, which supports the nationalist Sinan Oğan. While this political configuration may seem familiar to European observers – where cross-party coalitions are common, especially in parliamentary regimes – there are indications, such as the tensions between the İYİ Party and its partners in the Nation Alliance over support for Kılıçdaroğlu, that call into question the nature of these coalitions: are they motivated by ideological proximity, or are they merely tactical tools for gaining power? In particular, these coalitions seem to derive from the nature of the Turkish political regime and its evolution over the last decade, with an ultra-presidentialization of the system under the successive presidential terms of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which has led all political actors to position themselves in relation to his personal power. As socio-economic conditions weaken the AKP’s electoral base, the prospects for this election seem more open than ever.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

5. Lebanon after the Elections

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

6. The Lebanese diaspora and the upcoming elections: Lessons from the 2018 voting

Author:
Georgia Dagher
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This report examines the choices of the Lebanese diaspora in the 2018 parliamentary elections—the first time out of country voting was allowed—in order to offer some insights on the diaspora’s vote potential impact in the upcoming elections. Wide efforts to encourage the diaspora to vote, led by Lebanese activists all over the world, have succeeded in getting over 225,624 Lebanese on the out of country voters’ list—almost a threefold increase from the last elections in 2018.
Topic:
Diaspora, Elections, Voting, Participation, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

7. The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Crisis Management, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Benjamin Netanyahu, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gulf Nations

9. No Peace Without Justice in Afghanistan

Author:
Huma Saeed
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s presidential election took place on September 28, 2019, with less than 2 million people participating out of 9.7 million registered voters. Taking into consideration Afghanistan’s total population of 35 million, the turnout was a historic low—a problem further amplified by the fact that the government poured a huge amount of financial and human resources into election preparation. The main explanation for such low turnout is twofold. On the one hand, security threats such as suicide attacks or gun violence—which reached their peak during the presidential election campaigns—deterred many people from going to polling stations. On the other hand, Afghans have become wary about determining their own political fate because, for decades, regional and international powers have steered the political wheel in Afghanistan, rather the people. After four months, election results have still not been announced, leading to further speculation and anxiety among a population which has already been the victim of four decades of violent conflict in the country. This anxiety is further exacerbated by the ongoing “peace” negotiations with the Taliban. Afghan people have learned from experience that, even in the best-case scenario of the election results or peace negotiations, they cannot hope for new justice measures to heal their wounds. As demonstrated by the experience of Afghanistan and other countries, peace and security will not last without addressing the people’s demands for justice.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Politics, Elections, Taliban, and Justice
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Middle East

10. Arab Citizens are Not the Problem: How the 2020 Election Might Redefine the Israeli Political Landscape

Author:
Ahmad Agabaria
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The elections conveyed a message: The Arab public refuses to be a problem in Israeli society, and strives to return to normalcy. The 1990s were engraved in the memory of the Arab public as a promising period for their rights, but today the tables have been turned. The establishment doubts the ability of Arab Knesset members to represent their constituents and doubts their allegiance to the state. Many in the Arab public understand that the enshrining national-Zionist identity of the state is directed against them. The delegitimization of the Arab minority and its elected representatives reached its peak in the recent elections. The slogan "Bibi or Tibi" is an expression of incitement and racism that should be denounced. The "deal of the century" plan, and in particular its intention to annex the Triangle Region to a Palestinian state, actually contributed to raising the turnout rate on the Arab street. The 15 seats won by the Joint List restored the belief to Arab citizens that change is possible.
Topic:
Politics, Minorities, Elections, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine