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451. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy Policy

Author:
Mamuka Komakhia
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for five months, and it can be said that it is a war that has changed the world, and not only in military and security terms. In this edition of “The Security Review”, we will discuss the food, energy, and transportation aspects of this conflict. Mamuka Komakhia deals with one of the most important aspects of the war - energy, and discusses Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas and the possible scenarios to escape from it.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, War, European Union, Gas, Exports, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

452. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Transport Networks and the Role of Georgia

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for five months, and it can be said that it is a war that has changed the world, and not only in military and security terms. In this edition of “The Security Review”, we will discuss the food, energy, and transportation aspects of this conflict. Davit Shatakishvili describes the impact of the war on international transportation, and focuses on the changes Georgia has to adjust for.
Topic:
Transportation, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Georgia

453. The War in Ukraine and the Threat of a Global Food Crisis

Author:
Davit Natroshvili
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for five months, and it can be said that it is a war that has changed the world, and not only in military and security terms. In this edition of “The Security Review”, we will discuss the food, energy, and transportation aspects of this conflict. Davit Natroshvili analyzes Russia's use of food as a weapon of war and reviews the impact of the Kremlin's grain blockade on the world’s food security.
Topic:
Food Security, Imports, Instability, Food Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

454. Foreign fighters in the Russia-Ukraine war

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the large-scale phase of the Russia-Ukraine war, hundreds and possibly thousands of volunteers from all over the world have expressed their desire to fight on the side of Ukraine. Although foreign volunteers also helped the armed forces of Ukraine in the 2014 Donbas conflict, the current war has further increased the mobilization of foreign fighters. Foreign fighters were participants in many conflicts of the 20th century. According to Cerwyn Moore and Paul Tumelty, foreign fighters differ from mercenaries in that their main motivation is ideology, religion, and/or ethnicity, rather than material benefit. Along with the development of information technologies and the simplification of movement between countries, the number of foreign fighters and the scale of their mobilization have increased in the world. This article aims to review the major groups of foreign volunteers fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Conflict, Foreign Fighters, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

455. International Practice of Sanction Evasion and Circumvention Possibilities for Russia

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Sanctions play a special role in the economic and political life of the world. Historically, despite their various forms of use, sanctions have acquired an essentially functional substance in the 20th century. The goal of the sanctions is primarily to ensure global peace. In case of violation of market principles, military aggression, or disregard for the rules established between nations, the violator is sanctioned by specific countries and/or groups of states, who, in doing so, aim to bring it back to the norms of international law. Sanctions increase political and economic pressure on the target country, which are reflected in various dimensions and quantitative figures. Consequently, the country loses some of its political leverage and experiences tangible economic regress. For the sake of universal peace and global security, the policy of sanctions has not lost its relevance in the 21st century. As a result of Russia’s aggressive military intervention in Ukraine, the world community has applied an unprecedented package of sanctions against the aggressor, which has spread to almost every industry of the country and is still being added to. In this regard, Russia broke the anti-record and surpassed countries such as North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. Over the decades, sanctioned countries have accumulated extensive experience on how to circumvent the imposed sanctions, so as to at least partially help the country overcome the economic difficulties. It is interesting which ways and schemes such countries use to circumvent the restrictions, and based on that experience, what opportunities there are for the Russian Federation to do the same and evade the sanctions imposed on it, a move which will not only limit but also further pave the way for its aggressive foreign policy and threaten world peace.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Sanctions, Global Markets, Cryptocurrencies, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

456. The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the North Caucasus and Occupied Territories of Georgia

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
From the first days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it became clear that the Caucasus region was widely represented in the conflict. Caucasian fighters are fighting on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The war also has a great impact on the socio-political situation in the region. We will try to describe the contribution of the peoples of the North Caucasus, Abkhazia and Tskhinvali to this war and the possible long-term effects of the conflict on these regions.
Topic:
War, Conflict, Foreign Fighters, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

457. Turkey’s Place and Role in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In recent decades, Ankara has maintained a kind of balance in foreign policy and this approach naturally applied to Russia and Ukraine as well. NATO member Turkey sought to develop lucrative military-political and trade-economic relations with both Russia and Ukraine. However, after the Kremlin's war with Ukraine, Ankara clearly saw the facing imminent Russian threat, precipitating the change in its position (supply additional weaponry to Ukraine, close the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, etc.). At the same time, the longer the Russia-Ukraine war lasts, the more drastic consequences it will have for Turkey. Consequently, Ankara will have to take even more decisive retaliatory steps.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

458. Russian Military Aggression in Ukraine and Georgia's National Security System

Author:
Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the modern era, due to the increased and diversified variety of threats which are mostly intertwined, the security system of any country faces serious new challenges. These threats can arise as a result of the actions of specific countries or different groups as well as through various events. Against this background, it is quite natural that the terms "hybrid threats" and "hybrid warfare" have become established in our daily lives. Russia's military aggression in Ukraine which, unfortunately, takes civilian lives, is still ongoing and it is too early to draw any in-depth conclusions. However, the Ukrainian example has already vividly illustrated the importance of a proper planning and implementation of a national security policy. Already at this stage, military experts give a high assessment to the effectiveness of the territorial and civil defense conducted by the Ukrainian military and special forces. At the same time, Ukraine is successfully operating on the diplomatic as well as informational and psychological warfare front lines. The actions of the Ukrainian intelligence services deserve special attention.
Topic:
Intelligence, National Security, Armed Forces, Hybrid Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

459. Positions, Role and Activity of the International Community in the War Waged by Russia against Ukraine

Author:
Nika Petriashvili
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
This volume of the Security Review focuses on the Russia-Ukraine war. Regardless of the outcome of the war, it will fundamentally alter the post-Cold War world order and have a major impact on Georgia's security environment. Alex Petriashvili tells us about the reaction of the international community to the start of the war by Russia, what the West has done so far and what we should expect from it in the future. To what extent is the Georgian security system ready to withstand such challenges?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Community, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

460. The Saudi-Emirati axis and the preservation of regional order

Author:
Gertjan Hoetjes
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Arab uprisings of 2011 spurred the emergence of a Saudi-Emirati axis that sought to mitigate and – where possible – eliminate challenges posed by what these countries perceive as the so-called ‘triple threat’ to the regional order of the Middle East and North Africa: Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and violent extremist groups. Using a variety of foreign policy instruments - including military intervention and strategic outreach, funding allies and proxies as well as supporting religious networks and media outlets – the axis substantially shaped or influenced the domestic and regional events that occurred in the wake of the Arab uprisings. Broadly speaking, the Saudis and Emiratis have been successful in maintaining a monarchical/authoritarian pole in the region’s political order in their quest for domination. They have succeeded in doing so mainly through the use of soft power (finance, religious influence and media framing) in relation to weaker ‘client’ states in the region such as Bahrain, Jordan and Morocco. Their military interventions have generally not achieved their intended objectives and Saudi as well as Emirati shortcomings have been on full display in Yemen, Libya and Syria. While both countries were unable to prevent the emergence of a more multipolar regional order that includes Turkey and Iran, they have effectively helped smother popular calls for political renewal. Growing regional geopolitical competition has, however, not gone hand in hand with growing domestic turmoil. The vast financial reserves, increasing hard power and substantial reservoirs of soft power of both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates ensures that they will continue to act as defenders of the monarchical status quo of the Gulf region and its web of client states in the foreseeable future, even as competition between both partners increases at the same time.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

461. The geopolitics of digital financial technologies: A chance for Europe?

Author:
Brigitte Dekker, Arief Hühn, Pim Korsten, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Geopolitical tensions are permeating the digital domain. During the 1990s, the emergence of the internet still involved optimism and high hopes for digital technology as a force for openness, connectedness and freedom for all. Yet contrary to these promises, a trend of centralization, is prevalent in the digital economy. This trend of centralization, with the subsequent problems of gatekeeping, ecosystem lock-in, disproportional rent-seeking and monopolists that set market rules, is now also evident in the financial industry. Whereas smaller financial technology (fintech) companies, including many European firms, revolutionized the financial sector in the 2000s – disrupting traditional banks and their vested interests – we now witness a concentration of power and data in this sector, either in incumbent firms or within Big Tech companies. In response, governments in China, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are devising regulations, while at the same time technology innovators are building a radically new infrastructure to underpin our financial sector: Decentralized Finance (DeFi). The geopolitical implications of this disruptive transformation of the financial sector – through both fintech and DeFi – require forward-looking government responses that protect and promote European interests in the long term. This Clingendael Report first reflects on these trends of centralization in digital finance and decentralization in ‘traditional finance’. The paper examines the relationship between geopolitics and finance and looks at the position of the EU and its member states. The analysis considers the medium to longer-term implications in the following three domains: economic competitiveness and innovation; financial–economic and social stability; and inclusivity and equality. Data governance, data protection and data portability between financial services are key concepts in each of these areas. Building on these insights, the report argues for a push towards greater awareness among European policymakers on the potentials of DeFi to counter Big Tech’s rising influence in the European financial system with a decentralized, human-centred and value-based system. At the same time, the regulatory and security risks of DeFi – and the trend of decentralization in general – must be addressed. The report also highlights the need to help people to develop digital skills and become responsible and resilient digital citizens, and calls for enhanced dialogues with officials and technology company executives in like-minded countries on current developments. New approaches, such as multi-stakeholder consultations and increased rapprochement with the open-source and crypto-communities, are needed to facilitate knowledge exchange and best practices that will improve (regulatory) responses.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Internet, and Digital Finance
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

462. Growing stronger together: Towards an EU–ASEAN digital partnership?

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Brigitte Dekker
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In December 2021, the EU and Singapore launched talks towards a digital partnership agreement that could prove a building block for broader EU–ASEAN cooperation. This Report assesses the strategic value of increased cooperation in the field of digital connectivity, also acknowledged in the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy of September 2021, and considers the practical challenges and opportunities of stronger ties between the two blocs and their member states in this increasingly important realm. The authors argue that three domains could form the basis of a future, shared, EU–ASEAN approach to digital connectivity: (1) digital infrastructure; (2) data governance and digital trade regulation; and (3) the digital economy and financial technologies (fintech). A bloc-to-bloc approach should run in parallel with strengthened ties by the EU and its member states with specific ASEAN member states. Together, these building blocks will serve EU and ASEAN long-term interests, promoting economic competitiveness and inclusive growth, as well as openness, transparency and freedom in the digital realm.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, ASEAN, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Singapore

463. A new formula for collaboration: Turkey, the EU & North Africa

Author:
Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over recent years, relations between Turkey and the European Union (EU) have been difficult and driven more by crisis management rather than equal partnership. Yet, despite this downward spiral, both blocs remain key partners on domains such as trade, migration and counterterrorism and repeatedly express their interest in developing a more cooperative and constructive relationship. This report is a product of the ‘Searching for a New Formula for collaboration between Turkey and the EU in/with North Africa’ project, which investigated the extent to which Turkey and the EU could collaborate in and with North Africa, more specifically, Morocco, Egypt and Algeria. North Africa was chosen because it offers an underexplored area of research for Turkey-EU relations; Morocco, Egypt and Algeria were selected for specific study as they are the countries with which both Turkey and the EU have the highest trade volumes in the region. Moreover, there are currently no joint projects between Turkey and the EU in Morocco, Algeria or Egypt, although the region is an area of strategic importance for both Turkey and the EU. The recent war in Ukraine has also increased the value of North Africa as a provider of agricultural products and gas for the region. Libya and Tunisia were excluded from the research to narrow the scope of the project. To avoid the traps of reproducing ‘neo-colonial’ or ‘neo-Ottoman’ discourses and of following a top-down approach, this study used action research as a democratic, participatory and collaborative research methodology. It engaged diverse participants from Turkey, the EU and North Africa in semi-structured in-depth interviews, conferences and a survey. Through a cyclical process, the study devised a tripartite collaborative model and concrete project ideas under five major policy options in which cooperation between Turkey, the EU, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt could be actionable. This report gives a detailed account of the abovementioned tripartite collaborative model and the subsequent project ideas which were designed to be mutually beneficial for all three blocs –Turkey, the EU and North Africa. It should, nevertheless, be mentioned that current geopolitical uncertainties in the wider region could challenge the implementation of these projects. The civil war in Libya, the political tension between Turkey and Egypt or Morocco and Algeria, and the influence of China and Russia in the region could pose potential risks for collaboration. However, we maintain that such uncertainties make it even more timely to seek opportunities for a future collaborative environment in the Mediterranean as, ‘if the Mediterranean is weak, all Mediterranean countries are weak’.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Crisis Management, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and North Africa

464. Investors beware: Europe’s top firms are highly exposed to China

Author:
Ties Dams and Xiaoxue Martin
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Europe’s top firms are highly exposed to China, and therefore to China-related geopolitical risk. This risk is only set to increase in the coming years, as geopolitical tensions between China, the US and the EU are not expected to decrease. Moreover, case studies of LVMH, HSBC, ASML and BMW show that some of Europe’s biggest listed firms could and should offer investors more transparency on their risk-management strategies. Intelligence on China and geopolitical risk exposure is key for investors, and investors that get ahead of the curve may have the edge in the long term. This report is aimed at investors in Europe’s biggest listed firms. It argues that investors have a growing need for transparency amongst European biggest companies with regard to their strategies in dealing with China-related geopolitical risk. Even investors without direct interests in China are or will be affected by China-related geopolitical risk due to the various forms of exposure of companies in the European home market. This means that investors may be increasingly exposed to the risks linked to great power competition, without having the knowledge necessary to anticipate geopolitical changes. As geopolitical tensions between China, the US and the EU are not expected to decrease, investors would be wise to seek greater transparency about European companies’ exposure to the Chinese market – and indeed get ahead of the curve and gain a competitive advantage by investing in those firms that have forward-looking geopolitical strategies in place. This report aims to put this point on investors’ strategic agenda by making the following three points: Europe’s top firms are highly exposed to China. China-related geopolitical risk is spreading. Case studies suggest that Europe’s top firms may not be sufficiently transparent about geopolitical risk management.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Business, Investment, and Risk
Political Geography:
China and Europe

465. The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming? Russia’s growing presence in Africa and its implication for European policy

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The growth of Russia’s presence across Africa over the last decade has generated significant international concern, further exacerbated after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s engagement can affect the interests and policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states (MS) in Africa. How should European policymakers understand these developments and respond to them? To answer this question, this report looks at Russia’s engagement in Africa, reaching three main conclusions. First, Moscow’s engagement with Africa has so far remained limited as compared to that of other global players, particularly in the economic domain. The current level of (media) attention devoted to Russia’s role in Africa is thus not supported by sufficient evidence of its actual engagement in the continent. At the same time, however, the growth of Russia’s presence is a real trend. Second, Russian actors are guided by a rather loose strategy when it comes to Africa. The Russian state has some interests that act as a broad framework. However, the actual engagement is carried out not only by state actors, but also by state-backed conglomerates and politically connected private businesses. These latter actors have their own specific interests, which are not always fully aligned with those of the Russian state. While state actors are often driven by geopolitical considerations, Russian companies are more interested in economic opportunities. Third, Russia’s engagement in African countries is significantly shaped by the different national contexts and by the interests of African governments. For instance, in a strong state like Ethiopia, Russia’s engagement takes place exclusively at the governmental level. By contrast, in Sudan and Mali (contexts with weaker state structures), other Russian actors like PMCs and private businesses are involved. Yet, in all three cases, Moscow’s presence tends to grow when relations between African governments and their international partners (especially in the West) deteriorate, often in the wake of authoritarian turns. This shows the opportunistic nature of Russia’s engagement, as well as the complex trade-offs faced by EU/MS governments when engaging with African governments. These findings have significant consequences for the policy response of the EU and its member states. This report suggests that: (i) Rather than trying to respond reactively to Russia’s presence, EU/MS should focus on strengthening their own relations with relevant African partners. Addressing some of the political and economic imbalances in the Europe-Africa partnership may be an effective way to strengthen such relations, and by doing so to reduce the chances of an increase in Russia’s influence. (ii) In countries where this preventive strategy is difficult to implement (e.g. when facing authoritarian governments), decisions on whether/how to engage should go beyond debates about Russia’s (potential) presence, and be based instead on a comprehensive understanding of EU/MS interests and norms. Partnerships with non-governmental actors (e.g. the private sector, traditional authorities) may allow EU/MS governments to remain engaged despite souring ties with the government. (iii) In countries where Russia’s presence is already established, evidence-based and context-specific assessments of this presence should inform the EU/MS policy response. This can allow EU/MS governments to avoid overreacting to Russia’s influence, while also not underestimating its dangers. (iv) To pursue their interests in an increasingly multipolar world, EU/MS governments should try to strengthen their leverage vis-à-vis Russia (as well as other actors). To do so, EU/MS policymakers should leverage more strategically the engagement of European businesses across Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Europe

466. A new conflict management strategy for Syria: Creating a Safe, Calm and Neutral Environment

Author:
Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The search for peace in Syria faces a deep crisis. The battlefield has reached a stalemate, the Constitutional Committee never emerged from its cul-de-sac, and the UN’s ‘step-for-step’ approach suffers from flawed conceptual underpinnings as well as a lukewarm reception. Meanwhile, Syria remains divided into three areas that risk drifting further apart amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions. This reality on the ground should serve as a marker for recalibrating Western policy on Syria beyond the current focus on sanctions, accountability, and humanitarian aid. Western policy makers – mostly those from the US, European Union and Turkey – must base a much-needed new conflict management strategy on three ‘ground truths’: 1) the conflict is largely frozen and Syria is likely to remain divided into competing areas of control that are supported, or overseen, by external powers for the foreseeable future; 2) questions of national legitimacy and power sharing are not currently solvable and must be temporarily put on the back burner; c) diplomatic efforts to stabilise Syria and prevent partition are likely to be more effective when they focus on restoring practical connectivity between the different areas of control in terms of flows of people, goods and trade/aid/investment, as well as education. Such a strategy can take shape by operationalising the UN-sanctioned concept of a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE) via a clear set of principles for engagement, a detailed stakeholder/interest mapping of the various conflict parties, and a focus on pragmatic measures to improve daily conditions. The objective of such a strategy is to enable a durable return to relatively normal life for Syrians still living in the country, and to create linkages between the country’s war-torn parts that can open windows of opportunity in the longer term for a political process reflecting the intention of UNSCR 2254.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Peace, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

467. How To Talk About Migration in Africa: Classic Hurdles and Six Recommendations for European Policymakers

Author:
Victoria Rietig and Alia Fakhry
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Europeans are entering a decisive period for their relationship with African countries, on migration and beyond. Efforts to strengthen cooperation abound, but many migration initiatives are plagued by frustrations on both sides. So how to break through this vicious cycle and improve the unhealthy relationship? This paper analyzes trends in African migration policies and puts forward six recommendations for European policymakers and experts about how to prepare for their next encounter with their African counterparts – be it a friendly and informal chat or a negotiation.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

468. NATO’s 2030 Reflection Process and the New Strategic Concept: Implications for the Security in Northern Europe

Author:
Robin Allers, Rachel Lutz Ellehuus, Claudia Major, Christian Mölling, Paul O'Neill, and Johannes Gullestad Rø
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The NATO 2030 reflection process was sparked by worries that the Alliance might falter as a forum for political consultation. Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States all have a shared interest in ensuring NATO's coherence, improving the credibility of its deterrent, and strengthening its capacity to act. This report from the Security in Northern Europe (SNE) project presents contemporary views on NATO's Strategic Concept 2030 from Berlin, London, Oslo, and Washington D.C.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe

469. Risky Thinking: How Scenarios Can Help the EU Bounce Back from Strategic Shock

Author:
Roderick Parkes and Mark McQuay
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Since coming to power in December, the Scholz government has blundered into a series of foreseeable crises: medical shortages; reliance on Russia for gas; Ukraine’s need for robust support. France’s President Macron anticipated all three crises, giving weight to his calls for Europeans to pursue autonomy and reduce dependence on the outside world. Policy makers are now demanding scenario exercises that illustrate the obvious dangers of interdependency to back up their policy shift.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, Risk, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

470. Defense and Deterrence Against Geo-Economic Coercion What Germany and the EU Can Learn from China and the United States

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The geo-economic conflict between the United States and China as well as uncertainty about America’s longer-term commitment to a liberal and rules-based multilateral order pose risks to Germany’s economic prosperity and national security. The new German government must systematically identify economic dependencies and develop a forward-looking and comprehensive strategy to address vulnerabilities.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
South America and North America

471. The Geopolitics of Digital Technology Innovation: Assessing Strengths and Challenges of Germany’s Innovation Ecosystem

Author:
Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The COVID-era public and private investment influx into Germany’s digital technology R&D is reversing amid inflation, fiscal consolidation, and geopolitical pressures coming from the Zeitenwende. Germany’s future in an EU that is among the top-tier technology powers requires a profound and rapid transition of the country’s R&D strengths into data-intensive, systems-centric areas of IoT and deep technology that are linked to the domestic manufacturing base. New policy approaches in three areas – money, markets, and minds – are needed. New technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced material science, biotech, and quantum computing tend to have broad general-purpose applications. But uncoordinated funding vehicles, universities’ civil clauses, and restrictive visa and onboarding guidelines for skilled foreign workers slow innovation in these sectors and hamper German geo-technological competitiveness. In the mid-term, Germany could look at a scheme to bundle the Future Fund together with new institutional investment in a sort of embryonic German Sovereign Wealth Fund, with a proportion of funding specifically geared toward strategically important VC endeavors.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

472. US-Korea Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:
Troy Stangarone
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Troy Stangarone, Senior Director and Fellow, Korea Economic Institute of America, explains that "the United States and South Korea have taken steps domestically to reduce their emissions, while making climate change an important part of their efforts to expand the US-Korea alliance beyond traditional security and economic issues."
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

473. Korean Soft Power Goals and US-Korea Relations

Author:
Jenna Gibson
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Jenna Gibson, a PhD Candidate at the University of Chicago, explains why "listing off credibly popular cultural products coming out of South Korea and calling it soft power rings hollow" and how declarations of this type obscure the concept of soft power.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Culture, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

474. Resilient Industry Ecochains for the US-Taiwan Partnership

Author:
Stephen Su
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Stephen Su, Senior Vice President and General Director of the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) of Taiwan, explains that the "United States and Taiwan can work closely together to develop resilient industry ecochains for key industries such as semiconductors, telecommunications, automotive, biotech, machinery, etc."
Topic:
Partnerships, Economy, Industry, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

475. Taiwan’s Big and Clean Bets: Towards Green Cooperation

Author:
Wen-Yu Weng
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Wen-Yu Weng, Clean Energy and Climate Response Expert at PA Consulting, explains that "the future of Taiwan’s energy transition lies in making big bets in highly creative and highly technical approaches" and green energy "policy needs to embrace the fundamentally decentralized and democratized nature of solution-generation, agenda-setting, and experimental models."
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

476. US-Taiwan Relations and the National Security vs. Human Rights Fallacy

Author:
Randall G. Schriver and Jennifer Hong Whetsell
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Honorable Randall G. Schriver, Chairman of the Board at the Project 2049 Institute and former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs, & Jennifer K. Hong Whetsell, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute, explain that "Taiwan, a leading democracy and one of the freest countries in the world, continues to combat coercive and annihilative threats from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), while not wavering on human rights."
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

477. Scholarly Ties, Cooperative Research, Academic Dialogue, and International Student Exchanges in US‒Taiwan Relations

Author:
Randall L. Nadeau
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Randall L. Nadeau, PhD, Executive Director of the Foundation for Scholarly Exchange (Fulbright Taiwan), explains the importance of "strengthen[ing] educational and cultural exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, especially in light of worsening relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China."
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Higher Education, Students, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

478. India and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Author:
Surupa Gupta
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Surupa Gupta, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at University of Mary Washington, explains that "[e]ven though India has emerged as an active and engaged member of the Quad, its decision to join IPEF—a US-led framework for economic cooperation in the Indo Pacific—was not a foregone conclusion. "
Topic:
Economics, Partnerships, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific

479. Will the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment be a Game-changer in the Indo-Pacific?

Author:
Don McLain Gill
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Mr. Don McLain Gill, Philippines-based geopolitical analyst and author, explains that the G7 launched the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) at an opportune time as the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly derailed China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) momentum and Beijing’s questionable lending practices have come under greater scrutiny.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Partnerships, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Indo-Pacific

480. Ukraine Will Not Happen in Asia: America Seeks to Check China through Taiwan Visit and Quad Initiatives

Author:
Sarosh Bana
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Sarosh Bana, Executive Editor of Business India in Mumbai and former board member of the East-West Centre (EWC) Association—an organization representing the more than 65,000 individuals who have participated in East-West Center programs,
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

481. The COVID-19 Pandemic in Oceania: Health Policy Decisions Matter

Author:
Neal A. Palafox and Wilfred C. Alik
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Neal A. Palafox, MD, MPH, Professor, Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii, & Wilfred C. Alik, MD, Clinic Chief for the Kaiser Permanente Medical Center in Hilo, HI, Co-Founder of the Micronesian Health Advisory Coalition, and Chairman of Marshallese COVID-19 Task Force, "articulate a disparate range of pandemic experiences across Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), in terms of COVID 19 community transmission, cases, mortality, and vaccination rates." Additional titles in the Asia Pacific Bulletin series This brief compares COVID-19 data across Pacific countries through the first week of June 2022. Data is drawn from regional reports from the World Health Organization (WHO) , which has monitored the pandemic in Oceania since early March 2020, and situation reports on US-affiliated Pacific Islands compiled by the Pacific Islanders Health Organization Associations (PIHOA). These reports articulate a disparate range of pandemic experiences across Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), in terms of COVID 19 community transmission, cases, mortality, and vaccination rates.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Oceania

482. Clean Energy Transitions in the Pacific Islands Present Opportunities for Strategic US Economic Partnerships

Author:
Kalim U. Shah
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Kalim U. Shah, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy and Director of the Island Policy Lab, Joseph R. Biden Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, explains that with some locales "targeting as much as 100% renewables for their energy mix… [t]he modernization of the Pacific Islands’ energy sector promises to strengthen local economies and enhance the quality of life for residents"
Topic:
Partnerships, Economy, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Oceania

483. Understanding the Political Anatomy of the “Forward Edge”: The Case of Guam

Author:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Micronesian Studies at the University of Guam and Director of the Pacific Center for Island Security, dissects the political anatomy of Guam and explores the interplay between the island's status as a US territory and key US strategic concerns in the Pacific.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Guam

484. FSM Engagement with the United States and China: A Lesson Learned for the Pacific Islands

Author:
Gonzaga Puas
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Gonzaga Puas, Professor at Pacific Islands University and Founder of Micronesia Institute of Research and Development, explains that the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is at a "junction, where the confluence of the two super-powers [the United States and China] meet... FSM is aware of its strategic importance and is judiciously managing the influence of both superpowers."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, United States of America, Oceania, and Micronesia

485. Elevating and Engaging Micronesian Expertise in Hawai‘i and Oceania

Author:
Dina Shek and Shanty Sigrah Asher
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dina Shek, Legal Director of the Medical-Legal Partnership for Children in Hawai'i and Faculty Specialist at the William S. Richardson School of Law & Shanty Sigrah Asher, JD, Pacific Islander Liaison Officer at the Office of Economic Revitalization for the City and County of Honolulu, explain the importance of including indigenous expertise in policymaking and outlines steps to be more inclusive of Micronesian voices in policy formulation.
Topic:
Indigenous, COVID-19, and Community-based Organizations
Political Geography:
Hawaii, Oceania, and Micronesia

486. A Micronesian Perspective on Migration to the United States: Salty Feet Among Fellow People of the Sea

Author:
James A. Naich and Mary Therese Perez Hattori
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
James A. Naich, East-West Center Diplomatic Consultant and former Federated States of Micronesia diplomat, & Mary Therese Perez Hattori, EdD, Interim Director, Pacific Islands Development Program at the East-West Center, examine the "western and indigenous terms used in discussions of migration to illuminate and facilitate inclusion of Micronesian perspectives in this dialogue."
Topic:
Migration, Indigenous, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Micronesia

487. US-Korea Military-to-Military Relations: Past, Present, and Future

Author:
In-Bum Chun
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In-Bum Chun, a retired lieutenant-general and former Commander of ROK Special Warfare Command, explains how the "South Korean Constabulary, the forerunner to the ROK [South Korean] Army, was established under the United States Army Military Government in Korea..." and how the ROK Army evolved to the present day in close cooperation with its US counterpart.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, and Military
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

488. South Korean Foreign Policy: Changing Generational Priorities

Author:
Kathleen Stephens and Andy Hong
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ambassador (ret) Kathleen Stephens, US ambassador to the Republic of Korea from 2008 to 2011 and President of the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), & Mr. Andy Hong, Program Officer at KEI, explain that "young Koreans cast the key swing votes" in Korea's March 9 presidential election and that "[t]raditional approaches... to the US-ROK alliance, relations with China and Japan, and inter-Korean policy carry less salience for this new cohort of voters."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Alliance
Political Geography:
South Korea and United States of America

489. From Strategic Ambiguity to Strategic Clarity? The Dynamics of South Korea’s Navigation of US-China Competition

Author:
Clint Work
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Clint Work, Nonresident Fellow with the Henry L. Stimson Center's 38 North Program, explains that while President Yoon has made it clear that he will opt for strategic clarity amidst a growing US-China rivalry, he must navigate the challenges all previous ROK presidents have faced in dealing with Beijing
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

490. A New Horizon for Korea-US Economic Relations under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration

Author:
Jin Kyo Suh
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Jin Kyo Suh, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, explains that "Korea-US relations are entering a new era with the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol government.." as "President Yoon Seok-yeol himself is well aware of the importance of universal values, such as freedom, democracy and human rights."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

491. Creating Smarter & More Sustainable Cities in Southeast Asia: A Roadmap for United States-South Korea Cooperation

Author:
Sea Young "Sarah" Kim
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ms. Sea Young "Sarah" Kim, Visiting Scholar at the East-West Center in Washington and PhD student at Yonsei University, explains that “Washington’s and Seoul’s mutual interest in smart cities presents a valuable opportunity for the two nations to engage in tactical cooperation... under the broader framework of addressing non-traditional regional threats.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, Cities, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

492. US-ROK Cooperation Can Improve IP Protection in Southeast Asia by a Strategic Focus on Online Counterfeiting

Author:
Seth Hays
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Mr. Seth Hays, Chief Representative, Asia-Pacific, at the International Trademark Association, explains that “both the US and ROK cooperate with ASEAN countries to improve IP protections, including on the issue of online counterfeits, most notably through their respective IP offices: the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Korean Intellectual Property Office.”
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cooperation, and Counterfeiting
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

493. China’s Dilemmas in Bailing Out Debt-Ridden Sri Lanka

Author:
Ganeshan Wignaraja
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ganeshan Wignaraja, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) of the National University of Singapore and a Senior Research Associate at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in London, explains that "Sri Lanka is now stuck in a ‘debt trap’. However, the debt trap is not wholly Chinese."
Topic:
Debt, Development, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Sri Lanka

494. US-South Korea and the Philippines: Towards a Trilateral Security Initiative

Author:
Julio S. Amador III
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Julio Amador, Executive Director at the Philippine American Educational Foundation and Interim President of the Foundation for the National Interest, explains that “…A trilateral initiative would depend on two critical factors: 1) the growing ties between the Philippines and South Korea and 2) the extension of South Korea’s commitment beyond peninsular affairs to encompass the entire region.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, Philippines, North America, and United States of America

495. US Southeast Asia Policy: Towards A Balance of Commitment Approach

Author:
Prashanth Parameswaran
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran, a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a Senior Columnist at The Diplomat Magazine, explains that "A balance of commitment approach in U.S. Southeast Asia policy can help policymakers be attentive to both the interrelationships between power, threats and resources shaping decisions in the U.S. domestic political system and the careful calibration of components in commitment level and distribution in the Southeast Asia required to sustain an expanded, balanced approach that serves U.S. interests and meets regional needs."
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Domestic Politics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

496. NATO's Asia-Pacific Partners & Their Ukraine Response: Why Global Partnerships Matter for America

Author:
Kimery Lynch
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kimery Lynch, a Projects Coordinator at the East-West Center in Washington, explains how NATO has been stepping up engagement with its four “Asia-Pacific partners” (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Topic:
NATO, Partnerships, Engagement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Ukraine, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

497. 75 Years of Philippines-US Relations: From Strategic Partnership to Multifaceted Relationship

Author:
Maria Elissa J. Lao and Severo Madrona Jr.
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Maria Elissa J. Lao, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University, and Severo Madrona Jr., Lecturer, Department of History, Ateneo de Manila University, explain how US-Philippine Relations evolved "from a strategic military and economic partnership into a multifaceted relationship encompassing cultural, social, and governance cooperation."
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

498. Challenges and Gains in Military Relations between the Philippines and the United States

Author:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez, Development Studies Program and Institute of Philippine Culture Ateneo de Manila University, explains how, "changes in the global socio-political environment forced the Philippines and the United States to continuously re-calibrate the forms and mechanisms of their defense cooperation."
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

499. US-Philippine Defense Cooperation for Maritime Security

Author:
Jennifer Oreta
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Jennifer Oreta, coordinator of Ateneo Initiative for Southeast Asian Studies, and Asst Prof of the Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University Philippines, explains that "[t]he chief maritime security concerns in contemporary Southeast Asia are piracy, terrorism at sea, and China’s seizure of contested islands in the South China Sea."
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

500. Philippine-United States Trade Relations: Looking Back and a Way Forward

Author:
Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics at the Ateneo de Manila University and current Commissioner at the Philippine Tariff Commission, explains how the two nations have forged relationships across many sectors of trade, especially electronics and agriculture, and discusses the importance of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) and US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in Philippine-US economic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America