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Begin New Search Topic Peace Content Type Special Report Publishing Institution United States Institute of Peace

1. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

Author:
Afghanistan Study Group
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In December 2019, Congress established the Afghanistan Study Group and tasked it with identifying policy recommendations that “consider the implications of a peace settlement, or the failure to reach a settlement, on U.S. policy, resources, and commitments in Afghanistan.” The Study Group’s report, released on February 3, 2021, concluded that there is a real opportunity to align U.S. policies, actions, and messaging behind achieving a durable peace settlement to end four decades of violent conflict in Afghanistan. This new approach would protect U.S. national interests in Afghanistan and the region by reducing terrorist threats, promoting regional stability, and protecting important gains in human rights and democratic institutions that have been made in Afghanistan. Active regional diplomacy could help generate a consensus among Afghanistan’s neighbors that all would benefit in both economic and security terms from supporting and sustaining peace in Afghanistan rather than fueling conflict through proxies.
Topic:
Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

2. “No Going Backward”: Afghanistan’s Post–Peace Accord Security Sector

Author:
Annie Pforzheimer, Andrew Hyde, and Jason Criss Howk
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Failure to plan realistically for needed changes in Afghanistan’s security sector following a peace settlement—and failure to start phasing in changes now—will lead to post-settlement instability. This report examines the particular challenges Afghanistan will face, with examples from the climate following peace settlements in other parts of the world offering insight into what may occur and possibilities for response. An Afghan-owned and Afghan-led strategy that incorporates some of this report’s recommendations can help create a lasting foundation for Afghan and regional stability.
Topic:
Security, Political stability, Rule of Law, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

3. Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan’s Equatoria

Author:
Alan Boswell
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
South Sudan’s civil war expanded into Equatoria, the country’s southernmost region, in 2016, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighboring Uganda in what has been called Africa’s largest refugee exodus since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Equatoria is now the last major hot spot in the civil war. If lasting peace is to come to South Sudan, writes Alan Boswell, it will require a peace effort that more fully reckons with the long-held grievances of Equatorians.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

4. Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition

Author:
Patricia M. Kim
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, preventing a destabilizing arms race and lowering the risk of military, especially nuclear, confrontation is critical. The essays in this volume—based on a series of workshops convened by USIP’s Asia Center in late 2020—highlight both the striking differences and the commonalities between U.S. and Chinese assessments of the root causes of instability and the drivers of conflict in the nuclear, conventional missile and missile defense, space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence realms.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Peace, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5. Taliban Fragmentation: Fact, Fiction, and Future

Author:
Andrew Watkins
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. and Afghan governments have, at various times, intentionally pursued strategies of “divide and defeat” in an attempt to fragment and weaken the Taliban. These approaches have proved ineffective and, as long as peace efforts are being pursued, should be discontinued. Contrary to lingering narratives from earlier eras of the Afghan conflict, the Taliban today are a relatively cohesive insurgent group and are unlikely to fragment in the near term. This has not happened by accident: the Taliban’s leadership has consistently, at times ruthlessly, worked to retain and strengthen its organizational cohesion. To this day, the group is unwilling to cross internal “red lines” that might threaten that cohesion. The literature on insurgency and negotiated peace suggests that only cohesive movements are capable of following through and enforcing peace agreements. Many of the feared scenarios of Taliban fragmentation, including the defection of “hard-liners” or mass recruitment by the Islamic State, do not correspond to current realities on the ground. Fragmentation of the Taliban is not impossible, and the group is certainly far from monolithic, but ideological rifts are not a sufficient explanation of why this has taken place in the past—or might again. By studying what makes the Taliban cohesive and what has caused instances of its fragmentation, all parties invested in an Afghan peace process might be better equipped to negotiate with the Taliban under terms the movement would be willing to accept, even if it has not defined those terms publicly. This report examines the phenomenon of insurgent fragmentation within Afghanistan’s Taliban and implications for the Afghan peace process. This study, which the author undertook as an independent researcher supported by the Asia Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace, is based on a survey of the academic literature on insurgency, civil war, and negotiated peace, as well as on interviews the author conducted in Afghanistan in 2019 and 2020.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Taliban, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. The India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan

Author:
Zachary Constantino
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The most consequential regional competition for influence in Afghanistan is the contest between India and Pakistan. Indian leaders strive to cultivate Afghanistan as a natural partner and reliable bulwark against Islamic militants, including Pakistan-backed groups, while Islamabad seeks to counter what it regards as an Indo-Afghan nexus to encircle and weaken Pakistan. This report examines the interests and strategies of both countries in Afghanistan within the context of peace negotiations and developments in Kashmir.
Topic:
Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

7. The Intersection of Investment and Conflict in Myanmar

Author:
Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Developing countries throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America are grappling with how to deal with China's rising economic influence—particularly the multibillion-dollar development projects financed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Myanmar, however, appears to be approaching foreign investment proposals with considerable caution. This report examines the framework the country is developing to promote transparency and accountability and to reserve for itself the authority to weigh the economic, social, and environmental impacts of major projects proposed by international investors, including China.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Economy, Conflict, Investment, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

8. China’s Influence on Conflict Dynamics in South Asia

Author:
USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
China has embarked on a grand journey west. Officials in Beijing are driven by aspirations of leadership across their home continent of Asia, feelings of being hemmed in on their eastern flank by U.S. alliances, and their perception that opportunities await across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Along the way, their first stop is South Asia, which this report defines as comprising eight countries—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—along with the Indian Ocean (particularly the eastern portions but with implications for its entirety). China’s ties to the region are long-standing and date back well before the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, South Asia, India, Asia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives

9. Digital Inclusion in Mediated Peace Processes: How Technology Can Enhance Participation

Author:
Andreas T. Hirblinger
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Inclusion in peace processes is conventionally understood in “offline” terms, such as being physically present at the negotiation table. However, digital technology can support a mediator’s efforts to integrate a broad variety of perspectives, interests, and needs into a peace process. This report explores the current and future practice of digital inclusion, giving a framework for understanding the possibilities and risks, and providing examples of practical ways digital technologies can contribute to mediated peace processes.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Negotiation, Peace, Participation, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Why Burma’s Peace Efforts Have Failed to End Its Internal Wars

Author:
Bertil Lintner
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
After seven decades of civil war and five failed peace efforts, Burma is no closer than before to reaching an agreement that would bring an end to its many conflicts. Analysis of those previous attempts shows that they all foundered on immutable attitudes on both sides. This report suggests that the peace process needs a fresh start, learning from the past and seeking to resolve underlying political disparities while prioritizing community interests and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
South Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

11. What Works in Youth Projects? Lessons for the Youth, Peace, and Security Field

Author:
Rebecca Ebenezer-Abiola and Jeremy Moore
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Until the adoption of U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2250 in 2015, the international community had no comprehensive framework with which to address the specific needs and opportunities of a key demographic group—young people. This report presents the findings of a meta-review assessing fifty-one youth projects supported or implemented by USIP between 2011 and 2018 and offers recommendations for continuing to develop and support peacebuilding activities with effective engagement, cooperation, and flexibility among civil society organizations and funders.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Demographics, United Nations, Youth, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena

Author:
Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Between May 2019 and September 2020, the United States Institute of Peace convened a bipartisan senior study group to consider the factors that have reshaped the Red Sea arena. The study group determined that, in recent years, the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics of the Horn of Africa have become tied to the Middle East and broader Indian Ocean in a manner unprecedented in the last century. However, U.S. strategy in this evolving environment has struggled to keep pace with these interconnected, complex, and transregional dynamics and to account for the region’s increased relevance to U.S. interests. The final report of the senior study group defines U.S. interests within a hierarchy of priorities to assist policymakers in calibrating diplomatic, development, humanitarian, and security interventions and provides recommendations for defending and advancing these interests
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, United States of America, and Red Sea

13. The Arakan Army in Myanmar: Deadly Conflict Rises in Rakhine State

Author:
David Scott Mathieson
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Armed conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw, the national army, has escalated sharply in the past two years. This development has been largely eclipsed, however, by the continuing international focus on the human rights crisis of the Rohingya Muslim minority. As this report explains, if this new conflict continues to expand in scope and ferocity, the hope of repatriating Rohingya refugees will recede into the future and the rest of the country will suffer from the increasing violence and destabilization.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Minorities, Refugees, Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

14. Pathways for Post-Peace Development in Afghanistan

Author:
Khyber Farahi and Scott Guggenheim
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Even if the warring parties in Afghanistan manage to secure a still-elusive agreement on resolving the current conflict, significant economic challenges remain for the country, which will require continued assistance and support for core government functions. This report, based on an examination of Afghanistan’s recent development performance, provides a framework for how the Afghan government and its donor partners can more effectively deliver equitable development going forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

15. Constitutional Issues in the Afghan Peace Negotiations: Process and Substance

Author:
Barnett R. Rubin
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The peace negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban that began in September in Doha, Qatar, will almost certainly include revisiting the country’s constitution. Both sides claim to abide by Islamic law, but they interpret it in very different ways. This report examines some of the constitutional issues that divide the two sides, placing them within the context of decades of turmoil in Afghanistan and suggesting ideas for how the peace process might begin to resolve them.
Topic:
Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, Mediation, and Sharia
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

16. Looking for Trouble: Sources of Violent Conflict in Central Asia

Author:
Gavin Helf
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This report offers a road map for understanding the most likely sources of violent conflict in the post-Soviet nations of Central Asia—ethno-nationalism and nativism, Islam and secularism, water resources and climate change, and labor migration and economic conflict. The analysis draws from emerging trends in the region and identifies the ways in which Central Asia’s geography and cultural place in the world interact with those trends. It suggests that the policy goals of the United States, Russia, and China in the region may be more compatible than is often assumed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, and United States of America

17. Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election

Author:
Colin Cookman
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s current electoral system structures Afghan political dynamics, shapes election-day outcomes, and influences competition between organized interest groups in Afghanistan. Drawing on a unique set of results data from the September 2019 presidential election and past elections, this report analyzes where and how prospective Afghan voters were able to participate in the 2019 polls, the decision making behind and adjudication of disputes over which votes would be counted as valid, and how the available results compare with political trends evident in prior elections.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

18. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities

Author:
Tyler Jess Thompson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
Topic:
United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus

19. After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

Author:
Aly Verjee
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Almost every modern peace agreement has established some type of institution to oversee implementation of the agreement’s provisions and monitor compliance. This report provides a careful examination of monitoring and oversight mechanisms set up in Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Sudan, and South Sudan between 1999 and 2015, and offers a series of key lessons for the design of future monitoring mechanisms.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan

20. The Challenges Facing the Philippines’ Bangsamoro Autonomous Region at One Year

Author:
Zachary Abuza and Luke Lischin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Just over a year ago, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) was formally established as part of a peace agreement to end nearly five decades of conflict between the Philippine government and Moro secessionists. This report discusses the many notable achievements of the BARMM government during its first year while cautioning that these accomplishments are not irreversible, and that the BARMM will need international support—including from the United States—to confront future challenges.
Topic:
Government, Separatism, Peace, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Philippines and United States of America