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  • Author: Dina Smeltz, Craig Kafura, Lily Wojtowicz
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: High-profile Republican stalwarts John McCain and Lindsay Graham have contradicted President-elect Donald Trump’s dismissal of CIA conclusions that Russia interfered in the US presidential election. The two senators issued a statement along with Democrats Jack Reed and Charles Schumer calling for a special committee to investigate the Russian cyberattacks. In a joint statement issued December 11, the senators warned that “this cannot become a partisan issue” because Russian interference in the election “should alarm every American.” But among the American public, there is a partisan split on whether to investigate further, and self-described Republicans seem to be taking their cues from Trump rather than the senators. A just-completed Chicago Council Survey conducted over the past weekend (December 16-18) finds that a narrow majority of Republicans oppose a congressional inquiry (51%). By contrast, majorities of Democrats (85%) and Independents (64%) – and two thirds of the overall public – favor an investigation.
  • Topic: Corruption, Elections, Democracy, Post Truth Politics
  • Political Geography: America
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: The world today has the largest population of young people in history, yet tragically, far too many of these youth are unlikely to live past the age of 30. Worldwide, youth aged 15 to 29 make up more than 40 percent of all homicides, while millions more fall victim to nonfatal violent crimes. Three organizations—the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the University of Chicago Urban Labs, and the World Bank—convened approximately 30 leaders in Chicago from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, and other Latin American and Caribbean countries and the United States working on the front lines of urban youth violence prevention. They discussed promising ways to strengthen urban public safety and improve the lives of youth in cities throughout the Americas.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Youth Culture
  • Political Geography: America, Global Focus
  • Author: Dina Smeltz, Stepan Goncharov, Lily Wojtowicz
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: A breakdown in cooperation between the United States and Russia in Syria, disputes over bilateral arms control agreements, and official US allegations of Russian cyber-meddling in the US presidential election have increased bilateral tensions. Most recently, the Kremlin ended participation in a joint agreement with the United States to eliminate both countries’ excess stocks of weapons grade plutonium. Yet even before these recent developments, increasingly frosty diplomatic relations seem to have taken their toll on mutual perceptions in public opinion.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Security, Geopolitics
  • Political Geography: Russia, America
  • Author: Sara McElmurry, Juliana Kerr, Theresa Cardinal Brown, Lazaro Zamora
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: Current immigration policies and systems play an important role in protecting citizens. Federal immigration agencies are a central component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Working in collaboration with federal intelligence agencies and local law enforcement at home and foreign governments abroad, the immigration system has become much more sophisticated and effective since DHS was created in 2001. Apprehensions of unauthorized immigrants along the border are at the lowest levels seen in decades. Screenings used to vet visitors, immigrants, and refugees have increased in complexity and efficacy. Programs that remove criminals from the country now increasingly prioritize enforcement resources to address public safety and security threats.
  • Topic: National Security, Immigration
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Dina Smeltz, Craig Kafura, Kelhan Martin
  • Publication Date: 08-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: Two million Aleppo residents are trapped in the city because of accelerating fighting between the Syrian government forces and opposition fighters from various factions. The resulting humanitarian catastrophe has prompted the United Nations to put aside Syria peace talks in favor of gaining agreement on a cease fire to deliver humanitarian aid. The Chicago Council Survey shows that while Americans favor targeted military action against violent extremist groups like the Islamic State in Syria, they are less supportive of US involvement in the internal conflict in Syria between the Assad regime and anti-government forces.
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, Military Strategy
  • Political Geography: Syria
  • Author: Cullen S. Hendrix
  • Publication Date: 04-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: Feeding the world and teaching the world to feed itself is not just a humanitarian endeavor. It is vital to US national security. Food price–related unrest can have an immense impact on the stability of countries vital to US interests. Fortunately, the United States is well positioned to lead the fight against food insecurity across the globe. Even with increases in agricultural productivity, Africa and Asia have become increasingly dependent on global markets to satisfy their growing domestic demand for food. For example, Africa's 20 most populous countries are all net grain importers. This import dependence has made these countries more sensitive to food price volatility than ever before.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, National Security, Food Security
  • Political Geography: America, Global Focus
  • Author: Yanfei Li, Shigeru Kimura
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: The research is divided into four interdependent research clusters. Clusters 1 and 2 apply case studies on the BIMP countries (Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines) using different methods. Cluster 1, led by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, conducts dynamic linear programming model to simulate the development of power infrastructure, interconnection, and exchange of power in this subregion of ASEAN. It emphasises the economic rationale and feasibility of electricity market integration in the region. Cluster 2, led by the Brunei National Energy Research Institute, focuses on the regulatory, institutional, and technical barriers in BIMP, and develops a road map to solve these issues. This study thus gives some insight regarding regional specific barriers or issues for other regions based on an established understanding of the common issues in principle from previous studies. Cluster 3 is conducted jointly by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia and the Energy Research Institute at Nanyang Technological University. The study mainly refers to the Nordic and European cases of electricity market integration and analyses both their business models and overall market design for grid interconnection and cross-border trading of electricity. In doing so, the study eventually tries to deliver implications on the possible business model and market design for ASEAN. The Cluster 4 study, carried out by a researcher from the University of Western Australia, discusses political and institutional barriers to the formation of an integrated ASEAN electricity market and derives several practical strategies in addressing such barriers as policy implications.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Business
  • Political Geography: Southeast Asia
  • Author: Shigeru Kimura
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: The share of demand for fossil-fuel based energy (i.e. coal and oil) in Malaysia will remain the largest in 2035. This significant demand is largely driven by the stable economic growth as well as the energy prices that are kept low by its energy subsidy policy across sectors. While it is widely acknowledged that subsidy encourages overconsumption and inefficient resource allocation, subsidy reforms will bring structural changes at all economic levels. Therefore, the effects of fuel subsidy removal need to be simulated to help government formulate mitigating measures to cushion the effects on most affected sectors. This research is divided into two parts: the first part estimates the price impact on industry subsectors as an offshoot of energy subsidies removal by applying 2010 Malaysian Input-Output Table; the second part measures the economic impact of removing energy subsidies using a Malaysian macroeconomic model.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, International Political Economy, Climate Finance
  • Political Geography: Malaysia
  • Author: Ken Koyama, Ichiro Kutani, Yanfei Li
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: Energy demand in many East Asia Summit countries is on an upward trend, thus making the role of natural gas in energy supply increasingly important from various aspects. Yet the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is in transition in terms of geographical and quantitative expansion, diversification of price formations, and lower oil and gas prices. In order to balance benefits between importers and exporters and to find workable solutions for developing a sustainable LNG market in various energy situations in importing and exporting countries, the LNG market players and policymakers are encouraged to enhance their efforts to create a more flexible, transparent, and sustainable LNG market in Asia. Whereas the private sector is mainly responsible for commercial deals, the public sector is encouraged to support in improving business environment to develop a better-functioning LNG market especially in terms of flexibility, price formation, and gas supply security, and in securing necessary investments.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Southeast Asia
  • Author: Rajni Bakshi
  • Publication Date: 09-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relation
  • Abstract: Economic reforms in India have often arrayed proponents of market-led growth against human rights advocates anxious that markets give primacy to profits over people. A quarter century after the reform process was initiated in the early 1990s, this conflict has sharpened. At the same time, this narrative of polarised positions seems increasingly worn out. Business and society at large have always been intricately co-dependent. This interface is now taking many new forms across the world, with some entrepreneurs seeing profit as a means, rather than the end goal of business. This paper explores these questions. It reviews if and how trusteeship can be a lodestar for globally navigating businesses and public policies through a period of technology- driven disruptions and the uncertainties unleashed by climate change. Trusteeship is a frame of reference on which a wide variety of business models can be based. The emphasis is on transforming rather than demolishing the capitalist system. In essence, Gandhian trusteeship reposes faith in the capacity of individuals and entire classes to re-form themselves, on the premise that the capacity to seek redemption is intrinsic to human nature. There was logic rather than dreamy wishful thinking behind these claims. Gandhi believed that it is a fearful man who tyrannises others or attempts to accumulate wealth by force or by unfair means. By contrast, a voluntary adoption of trusteeship means respect for human dignity, fostering relations based on truth and shared goals. Thus, Gandhi urged labourers to approach employers from a position of strength and self-respect since labour is as vital a component of production as capital, land, and technology. In a time mired by corruption and competitive greed, trusteeship may at first glance seem like a pipe-dream. Can this closer examination perhaps give you cause to rethink?
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Reform, Employment
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Rajni Bakshi
  • Publication Date: 09-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relation
  • Abstract: Degrowth as a creative goal does not sit well in most societies today. But water is a key to fostering new imaginaries because it most starkly manifests the risk of forced and chaotic degrowth-as-collapse. By 2040 an estimated 33 countries, including USA, China and India, will face severe water scarcity. India had a rich heritage of elaborate traditional technologies and modes of social organisation that ensured adequate and reliable supply of water even in arid regions. Many of these old community-based systems of watershed management and storage withered away as water was transformed from a sacred gift to just a ‘resource’ that could be privatised and/or controlled by governments. Today while local water-shed management is supported by government policy this tends to be overwhelmed by large projects that add more directly to GDP growth. Nevertheless, over the last quarter of a century, a wide variety of civil society and academic interventions in India have attempted to revive, or document, the multi-dimensional wisdom on which pre- modern societies based their relationship to water.
  • Topic: Economics, Water, Climate Finance
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Rajni Bakshi
  • Publication Date: 07-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relation
  • Abstract: Indian business—perhaps even society at large—is currently buoyed by the expectation that we are entering a period of sustained economic growth that might finally make poverty a problem of the past. In this context, it might seem counter-intuitive to draw attention to the possibility of a decelerating global economy and projections about reversals in human well-being. However, there is mounting evidence to show that the prevailing models of economic growth cannot continue unchecked to the end of the 21st century. Apart from the truism that infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet, the accelerating impacts of climate change are set to play havoc with a reliable supply of many natural resources—including food. Unless growth is redefined, degrowth will be forced upon the global economy, as a consequence of chaotic instability in eco-systems and due to the brittleness of political, social, and economic systems
  • Topic: Global Recession, Reconstruction, Reform, Global Political Economy
  • Political Geography: India, Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
  • Abstract: Confronted with a challenging security environment, the Japanese government formulated a “National Security Strategy” in 2013 and then amended the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) and the Medium Term Defense Program (MTDP) accordingly. To ensure a seamless response to any situation threatening the nation’s security and prosperity, the Cabinet adopted a resolution in July of last year regarding the legal foundations for security (security legislation). Against this backdrop, the Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation (“the Guidelines”) were revised and efforts made to pass the proposed security legislation.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Japan
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
  • Abstract: This Research Group will assess the new security legislation and the revised Guidelines, and conduct reality checks of Japan’s new security policy and the Japan-US alliance. In carrying out studies/research on the implications of enacting security legislation and revising the US-Japan Guidelines, this Research Group will work with the two regional research groups being set up independently and simultaneously to jointly carry out the simulations that are the central focus of this project
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Japan
  • Author: Denis Hadžović, Mirela Hodović, Benjamin Plevljak
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: The Centre For Security Studies
  • Abstract: Exploring the role and status of women in Bosnia and Herzegovina is difficult, especially when it comes to the representation of women in the security sector institutions. Following the adoption of the Action Plan for the Implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on "Women, Peace and Security” progress has been made regarding the inclusion of a greater number of women in substantive roles in the security sector institutions in BiH. However, the analysis carried out reveals that the majority of these institutions still do not meet the minimum standard set for minority gender representation in government institutions (40%). Traditional views and prejudices about the understanding of gender roles are believed to still negatively affect the ability of many girls and women to build professional careers in areas such as defence and the police. Awareness and understanding of the importance of gender equality principles, both of individual security institutions and the entire system in general, should help address these barriers to entry and enable the greater acceptance of women in all fields of work.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, International Security
  • Political Geography: Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Author: Aida Kržalić
  • Publication Date: 09-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: The Centre For Security Studies
  • Abstract: From the security point of view, we can identify two main purposes as to why state authorities seek to use the secret data collection. The use of secret data collection may be to improve national security, prevent risks and threats to the security of citizens, national security, society, institutions, economic and other vital interests of society and the state from the various terrorist and extremist groups. Considering that this is a preventive activity, these actions are characteristics of intelligence and security agencies. It is important to emphasize that with these kind of activities, intelligence and security agencies are reaching "for collection of data and information on the activities, plans and intentions of various domestic and foreign, state and non-state actors, their processing and analysis are a very important segment that is often neglected in our country, which is the timely dissemination of information to the different users" (Petrovic 2015: 15).
  • Topic: International Security, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Author: Sofija Mandić
  • Publication Date: 09-2016
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: The Centre For Security Studies
  • Abstract: Citizens of the Western Balkans have a high level of trust and confidence in the education system, the health system and the police. However, even in the case of institutions they trust most – such as the police, trusted on average by 58% of the population – many believe that they cannot be relied on. Rep- resentative bodies (the Parliament), the judiciary, the prosecutors’ offices and the media are trusted the least. In comparison with the survey conducted in 2015, trust in most key institutions has increased. The respondents see the average policewoman first as polite and good looking, and only then as a professional ready to perform her job. Male members of the police force are associated primarily with their professional engagement – protection of citizens, someone who is strong and trustworthy – and to some extent with behaviour and method of communication, whereas assessments concerning their physical appearance are completely absent.
  • Topic: National Security, Public Opinion
  • Political Geography: Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Author: Ivo Daalder, Michèle Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steve Pifer
  • Publication Date: 02-2015
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: This report is the result of collaboration among scholars and former practitioners from the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, the Center for a New American Security, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. It is informed by and reflects mid-January discussions with senior NATO and US officials in Brussels and senior Ukrainian civilian and military officials in Kyiv and at the Ukrainian “anti-terror operation” headquarters in Kramatorsk. The report outlines the background to the crisis over Ukraine, describes why the United States and NATO need to engage more actively and urgently, summarizes what the authors heard in discussions at NATO and in Ukraine, and offers specific recommendations for steps that Washington and NATO should take to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and thereby enhance its ability to deter further Russian aggression.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, International Affairs, Geopolitics
  • Political Geography: Russia, America, Ukraine
  • Author: Dina Smeltz
  • Publication Date: 11-2014
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: As talks over the future of Iran’s nuclear program enter a critical stage, the 2014 Chicago Council Survey reveals that the American negotiators come to the table backed by the US public: majorities of Americans favor the interim agreement and support a diplomatic approach, but they are prepared to use military force if necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: America, Iran
  • Author: Dina Smeltz
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Abstract: The 69‎th session of UN General Assembly is being held against the backdrop of international crises that include the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, ISIS military gains in Iraq and Syria, and continuing negotiations with Iran. According to the recently released 2014 Chicago Council Survey of American opinion on foreign policy, majorities are confident in the UN’s ability to carry out humanitarian efforts and peacekeeping. They are more skeptical, however, of the UN’s effectiveness when it comes to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, resolving international conflicts, and sanctioning countries that violate international law.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus