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1. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:
Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

2. Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine: Concept, Ideology, Objectives, Means, Consequences

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The study tries to outline interim conclusions about the concept, the ideology, the objectives and the tools used by the Russian federation in this barbaric war of attrition against Ukraine – a war of a nuclear superpower against a smaller neighbouring country. The study does not aim to analyse the strange way the war is developing – Russians carry on military attacks in both a regular and terrorist manner 7 on the whole territory of Ukraine, while the Ukrainians are deterred to counter-attack the aggressor on the latter’s own territory and to fight with longer-range arms even on their own land. The author understands how many issues from the theoretic fields of international relations, foreign, security and defense studies need to be considered to understand in a holistic way the final result of the interaction of domestic Russian, international, political, economic, governance, psychological and other problems that led to launching an aggressive and devastating war in the European continent by Moscow. The purpose of the study is not to outline the avalanche of mistakes in the policy of the collective West towards a showing for decades signs of revenge imperialist Russia. Neither it aims to point to the multitude of military mistakes by the aggressor in the last year. The aim of the study is to outline and discuss the concept, the ideology, the objectives and the means of the Russian aggression. Revealing the Nazi-like behaviour of the Russian leadership and its armed forces could serve to construct the broader picture of the developing conflict and learn how to prevent a similar invasion by Moscow. The study aims to prove that the legal and moral consequences of the war will be the conviction of the aggressor for the genocide and the war crimes. This would be the only possibility for normalising the life of the Ukrainians and the Russians as well as of the broader international relations system.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Imperialism, Sovereignty, European Union, Conflict, Ideology, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3. The South China Sea and Indo-Pacific in an Era of “Multipolar” Competition

Author:
Zachary Paikin, Gilang Kembara, Andrew Mantong, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
A longstanding territorial dispute between claimants in the South China Sea now finds itself nested within a new imagined ‘Indo-Pacific’ region, which itself has become a key theatre in a deepening great power conflict. The EU is geographically distant and a relative newcomer to the strategic terrain in these two regions, yet it cannot afford to ignore them given their crucial economic and geopolitical importance. While the EU’s ability to reduce the constraints on its freedom of manoeuvre is limited, the Union should nonetheless gradually nurture its strategic autonomy by carving out a delineated hard security role in the South China Sea while maintaining a degree of distance from the US approach towards China and the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

4. The Unfulfilled Promise of EU Foreign and Security Policy towards Iran

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro, Steven Blockmans, Akin Unver, and Sine Özkaraşahin
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the 2015 nuclear deal dead in all but name, Iran is getting closer to Russia and more repressive at home, while EU member states’ priorities about the Islamic Republic now extend beyond nuclear proliferation to human rights and European security. This shift in priorities cements a re-orientation of the EU’s approach to Iran from conditional engagement to confrontation. EU member states’ options are limited, however. Pressure worked prior to the nuclear agreement because the EU cut off significant trade with Iran. But US extraterritorial sanctions, re-imposed after the United States left the deal in 2018, have rendered EU-Iran trade so modest that cutting it would have little impact. The EU could get more leverage by providing incentives, yet the political inexpediency of rewarding Iran at a time of rising belligerence of the Islamic Republic greatly restricts the range of benefits potentially on offer. Still, in the mid- to longer term, the EU and its member states will need to combine pressure with some form of incentives if they want to defend their interests in non-proliferation, European security and the protection of human rights in Iran. They also need to resort to a variety of international partnerships in order to maximise their residual leverage.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Middle East

5. How to Reduce the Impact of Internal Contestation, Regional Fragmentation and Multipolar Competition on EU Foreign and Security Policy

Author:
Sarah van Bentum, Caterina Bedin, Gregor Walter-Drop, Steven Blockmans, Agnès Levallois, and Tiffany Guendouz
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In a Union of 27 Member States, differences in (geo)political interests, socio-economic realities, historical trajectories and national identity construction constantly threaten internal unity and thus also the external coherence of the EU’s Foreign and Security Policy (EUFSP). The following three factors and their mutually reinforcing interplay appear to have a significant impact on the creation and shaping of EUFSP, especially when it comes to managing international crises and conflicts: internal contestation, regional fragmentation and multipolar competition. The analysis in this paper draws on the main findings from nine case studies carried out under the Horizon 2020 JOINT project. The paper first assesses the (generally negative) impact of the three factors on EUFSP in these contexts of international crises, identifies common patterns and divergent approaches. The second part of the paper identifies strategies to mitigate and/or reduce the (negative) impact of these challenges on EUFSP and points towards windows of opportunity to take action moving forward. The ultimate aim of this research is to provide experts and officials with concrete ideas about how EU policy decision-making processes can enable greater coherence among EU institutions and Member States in their response to international crises and conflicts.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, Multipolarity, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Modelling Nuclear W Modelling Nuclear Weapon E eapon Effects in W ects in Wargaming Using Monte gaming Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Author:
Tyler Guetzke
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The United States Army’s interpretation of nuclear weapon effects needs change and modernization. Wargaming exercises are commonplace in today’s military, however, despite the growing threat of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW), little has been done to inform battlefield commanders on their true effects. Our research seeks to develop a tool for commanders to easily interpret quantifiable effects of a NSNW. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, we are developing a new methodology to analyze NSNW effects. Our model allows a commander to calculate the expected unit strength following a NSNW strike which will aid in their operational decision making ability. The Monte Carlo simulation method for analyzing nuclear effects offers a novel approach to account for variation while giving the commander an analytically interpretable output as descriptive statistics that avoids probabilities.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Command and Control
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. From a space of conflict to a space of peace: The role of urban planners in advancing the peace process

Author:
Oded Haas
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This review paper is based on the concept of creating space to understand the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In fact, the paper argues, the conflict produces and is produced by a process of creating conflict spaces. Therefore, intervention is proposed in the process of generating space in order to create an alternative to the conflict space – a space for peace. A joint planning model places urban planners at the heart of the space producing process, and identifies urban planning as activity with great impact potential, both because it mediates between the global economy, national policy, and individual daily life in the production of space, and because it can promote the creation of a peace space born of professional consensus. Joint planning is the practice of bringing knowledge, experience and an alternative perspective into the planning process. Mixed cities that constitute core spaces in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are proposed as spaces that currently offer an opportunity to create change, or can be created as change, which will serve as a basis for turning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict space into the Israeli-Palestinian peace space.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, Urban Planning, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. The Functionality of Uganda’s Single Spine Agricultural Extension System

Author:
Elijah Dickens Mushemeza
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the findings and discussions on the functionality of the single-spine agricultural extension system in Uganda. The recommendations from the research process will potentially inform the implementation of the new national agricultural extension strategy aligned to the NDP III, the Parish Model and the national agenda of socio-economic transformation. The single spine extension system was conceptualized as a well-coordinated, harmonized, public sectorled pluralistic extension system. The aim was to eliminate the parallel institutional arrangements that emerged during the NAADS program implementation. It aims at enhancing agricultural production and productivity, value addition, food security, household income and export. In addition, it focuses on building the capacity of individual farmers and farmer institutions to have greater access to and control over structures and processes that transform their resources and assets into the outcomes that they desire to achieve their goals. The study sought to address four objectives: (i) assessing the effectiveness of coordination among key actors (including clarity of mandates) in the delivery of agricultural extension; (ii) assessing the functionality of transparency and accountability mechanisms in the single spine agricultural extension system; (iii) assessing the performance of the system in the attainment of key agricultural extension outcomes; and (iii) assessing the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension services. The report gives a background to the reform and an overview of the strategy that has been used to implement it. The report gives the methodology utilised in the research process, the limitations of the study and how methodological challenges were addressed. The report brings out the findings in relation to the objectives set and in particular; on coordination dilemmas, transparency and accountability mechanisms, and performance of the system and the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension service.
Topic:
Agriculture, Governance, Reform, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

9. Compliance Assessment of the FY 2023/24 Budget to Climate Change Interventions in the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII)

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that climate change is occurring in the world today. Climate change is a global development challenge with adverse effects manifested in different ways at national and local levels especially in the vulnerable least prepared countries like Uganda. It is associated with negative severe effects on human well-being and ecosystems which equally hinders the achievement of sustainable development and social equity goals hence becoming one of the drivers of exclusion. This makes it an urgent problem that requires global, regional and national efforts towards effective mitigation and adaptation responses. Swift effective response to climate change could significantly contribute to the attainment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while delayed action is predicted to have severe and irreversible consequences for natural and human systems. Uganda’s frameworks to sustainable development (Uganda’s Vision 2040, the NDP III, sectoral policies and plans) highlight climate change as an outstanding development challenge. This implies that the attainment of the country’s long-term development goals and the building of resilient communities that will mitigate and adapt to climate change largely depends on the significant allocation of financial resources to climate change interventions specified in the development frameworks. The NDPIII 2020/21-2024/25) not only integrates climate change across all its twenty (20) programmes but also provides for their strategic interventions and targets. This integration trickles down to the NDPIII Results Framework and Programme Implementation Action Plans (PEAPs) and is also supposed to fully cascade down to the national budget. This report presents the compliance assessment of the FY 2023/24 budget to climate change interventions in the third National Development Plan (NDPIII) based on ten (10) priority programmes selected due to their real or potential contribution to climate change and their strategic importance to the development process. Overall, the analysis revealed that the FY2023/24 Annual Budget (AB) to climate change interventions in NDP III is unsatisfactory at 55.35 percent which is slightly lower than last year’s compliance level of 64.7 percent. However, there were variations in the compliance levels of the different programmes. The programmes on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources programme (83.3%), and Sustainable Minerals Development programme (80%) had a satisfactory level of compliance. On the other hand, the programmes of Human Capital Development (62.5%), Integrated transport infrastructure and services (61.1%), and Tourism development (66.7%) had a moderately satisfactory level of compliance. Lastly, the programmes of Sustainable Urbanisation and housing (56.7%), Natural Resources, Environment, Climate Change, Water and Land Management (56.3%), Agro-industrialization programme (28%), Digital transformation (40%), Private Sector Development (0%) had a far below an unsatisfactory level of compliance (below 60%).
Topic:
Climate Change, Budget, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

10. Assessing Community Sensitivity to Cross-Border Security in Ghana

Author:
Mawusi Yaw Dumenu, Newton Yaw Norviewu, Balaarah Abdulai, and Nana Kwabena Aborampah Mensah
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Strengthening the integrity of Ghana’s borders is essential for the welfare of the nation and its people. National efforts to prevent illegal cross-border activities, including illicit goods, persons and activities require full involvement of all Ghanaians, especially those living in border areas. This has become even more important considering the regional insecurity posed by terrorist groups and violent extremists. It is therefore imperative that residents be sensitized to potential threats associated with irregular cross-border activities that have a potential to facilitate activities of criminal gangs such as terrorists and violent extremist groups. Furthermore, as violent extremism and terrorist activities have become more prevalent in the West African sub-region it is crucial that these threats are considered when examining the functionality of Ghana’s border security. In an effort to improve awareness among border communities, the Center initiated the project entitled “Enhancing citizen participation in border security”. As part of the project strategies, a baseline survey was conducted within selected border communities to assess the level of awareness regarding border-related threats and gather information on the relationship between border residents and security agencies. The baseline survey was intended to inform the direction and interventions of the broader project. Both border residents and staff of some security agencies were interviewed in each of the 10 regions within where Ghana’s land borders are located. The findings of this survey are contained in this report.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Borders, Smuggling, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana