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2. Syria and Libya’s Contributions to the Evolution of the Turkish “Forward Defence” Doctrine
- Author:
- Nebahat Tanriverdi Yasar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, there have been considerable changes in Turkey’s regional policies, especially in terms of the increasing use of hard power. Such changes are largely in response to regional rivalry, refugee flow from Syria and the revival of Kurdish issues, as well as strained relations with Turkey’s traditional allies, such as the United States and the European Union, among other factors. In the first decade of its rule, the AKP government moved away from Turkey’s traditional approach to foreign policy by adopting soft power in its relations with the states in the Middle East region. However, following the Arab Spring, and especially 2016, the AKP government embraced a “forward defence” doctrine, reminiscent of the security policies of the 1990s. At the end of the Cold War, Turkey reoriented its defence posture around a security-oriented approach due to its geostrategic location. This defence posture was based on the belief that Turkey has an unstable but strategically important location and hence needs powerful armed forces to employ hard power to protect its interests and security. Naturally, security threat perceptions reached their peak in Turkish foreign policy and Turkey came to the brink of using military force against several states such as Greece, Cyprus and Syria. Modernisation of armed forces and development of national defence industry were among the policies adopted during this era. The forward defence doctrine is key to Turkey’s policy in Syria and Libya. Given the dominant role played by Turkey in Syria, AKP has intensified its military activities beyond the Syrian border with the aim of preventing the expansion of the YPG and advance of the Syrian army into Idlib, which would trigger a large influx of refugees. Maritime disputes between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean intertwined with geopolitical tensions and rivalry between Turkey and its regional rivals such as France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. In response to its regional isolation and to block these developments, Turkey signed two Memoranda of Understanding, on maritime delimitation and on security cooperation, with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya. The recent shift in Turkey’s security policy is in line with the basic principles of the AKP government’s grand strategy, which seeks to reposition Turkey as a central state in the international and regional system.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and Syria
3. The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Eleanore Ardemagni, Jesse Marks, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Allison Spencer Hartnett, Ezzeldeen al-Natour, Laith al-Ajlouni, Carla Abdo-Katsipis, Lucia Ardovini, Yasmine Zarhloule, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Brent E. Sasley, Ehud Eiran, Sally Sharif, Diana Galeeva, Matthew Hedges, Elham Fakhro, Kristin Diwan, Guy Burton, Ruth Hanau Santini, Justin Schon, Alex Thurston, Adam Hoffmann, and Robert Kubinec
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- This special issue of POMEPS STUDIES collects twenty contributions from a wide range of young scholars writing from diverse perspectives, which collectively offer a fascinating overview of a region whose governance failures, economic inequalities and societal resilience were all suddenly thrown into sharp relief.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Islam, Nationalism, United Nations, Governance, Authoritarianism, Refugees, Inequality, Conflict, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Morocco
4. MENA’s Frozen Conflicts
- Author:
- Marc Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Over the last year, the MENA region’s simmering conflicts have seemed frozen in place. The internationally-fueled civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya have long since settled into an equilibrium in which no side can either truly win or truly lose. Those conflicts have been held in place in part by local ecologies and war economies and in part by the competitive interventions by regional and international powers on behalf of their proxies and clients. But are these conflicts truly frozen? What does viewing them through such a lens gain, and what are the theoretical and analytical costs? To explore these questions, POMEPS convened a virtual research workshop on September 25, 2020, with scholars from diverse empirical and theoretical backgrounds.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Politics, Citizenship, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Mental Health, Crisis Management, Peace, Justice, Capital, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America
5. Shifting Global Politics and the Middle East
- Author:
- Marc Lynch and Amaney Jamal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- What is the current structure of international relations, and how does this shape the politics of the Middle East? For decades, the answer was clear: international structure was unipolar, and American predominance shaped the alliance choices of both its allies and its adversaries. In recent years, this clarity has been overtaken by confusion. American primacy has perhaps declined, or at least shifted in its application, but no rival power has yet risen to take its place. How has this perceived change in global structure affected regional politics in the Middle East? In October 2018, POMEPS, Princeton University’s Bobst Center, and the American University of Beirut brought together nearly two dozen scholars from the United States, Europe and the Middle East at AUB to discuss the impact of shifting global structure on regional dynamics. This collection features sixteen essays ranging across diverse perspectives on the evolving relationship between the global and the regional. Taken together, they offer a fascinating window into the relationship between the global and the regional, and the implications for contemporary regional politics.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Poverty, Power Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Inequality, Brexit, Arab Spring, Alliance, Conflict, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
6. Mapping the Syrian Diaspora: A Global Player in the Reconstruction of Syria
- Author:
- Bassma Kodmani and Hana Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Before 2011, the Syrian diaspora worldwide was estimated at 18 million people who migrated over more than a century and have mostly contributed actively to their host communities. This old diaspora has now increased with the wave of Syrian refugees who fled - and continue to flee - Syria because of the ongoing conflict. Over the past seven years, seven million Syrians - not all registered refugees – have fled the country out of a total population of 24 million before the conflict. The Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) conducted a research project between Spring 2017 and 2018 to study Syrian diaspora around the world after the 2011 uprising, map its features and explore the interactions of Syrian migrant communities with the conflict in Syria. To draw a map of these interactions, ARI commissioned a group of researchers to prepare studies on Syrian diaspora in North America, Latin America, and Europe. Regarding the Middle East, researchers conducted studies on the presence of Syrians in Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt as well as Gulf States, with Qatar and the UAE as case example. Furthermore, ARI prepared three papers on the experiences of other diaspora groups in the region, namely the Armenian, the Palestinian, and Lebanese, with a view to comparing them with the Syrian case and draw lessons from them. Finally, ARI shared a questionnaire with the researchers to use with Syrian personalities (academics, businesspeople, engineers, etc.) so as to explore the motives that could encourage or deter them from contributing to channel the potential of the Syrian diaspora to help in the recovery of the Syrian society in Syria and abroad. Researchers also focused on the living conditions of Syrian communities, new and old, in diaspora countries. The ensuing report draws a new globalized network of relationships characterized by the following:
- Topic:
- Globalization, Diaspora, Refugees, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Latin America, Syria, and North America
7. Syrian Diaspora Groups in Europe: Mapping their Engagement in Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom
- Author:
- Nora Ragab and Amer Katbeh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This research was commissioned by Danish Refugee Council’s (DRC) Diaspora Programme as part of a project with the Durable Solutions Platform (DSP) joint initiative of DRC, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). This study seeks to explore Syrian diaspora mobilisation in six European host countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The report focuses on the organisational framework, transnational links and practices of Syrian diaspora groups, by taking into account both internal dynamics and potential lines of conflict as well as the contextual factors in the country of origin and destination. The mapping and study seek to provide a basis for further engagement with the most relevant group of Syrians (associations and individuals) across Europe for consultations on future solution scenarios for Syrian refugees, as well as to enable DRC’s Diaspora Programme to develop activities specifically targeting the Syrian diaspora looking towards the reconstruction and development of Syria.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Diaspora, Refugee Issues, and transnationalism
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Germany, Denmark, Syria, Switzerland, and Sweden
8. Mapping Syrian Skills in the Gulf: The Case of Qatar
- Author:
- Kheder Zakaria
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The paper begins with a review of the stages of Syrian emigration to the Arab oil-producing countries, before and after the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, as well as the trends of Syrian emigration to the Gulf states, and size of Syrian immigrant communities in each. Despite the lack of sources on the number of Syrians in these countries, and the lack of accuracy of the sources that are available, the paper estimates the number of Syrians in these countries at fewer than 600,000 immigrants in 2011. The figure rose to between one million and 1.5 million across years of conflict. About 14% of these work in the top professions, and 11% as specialists and technicians. The study also examines the characteristics of the Syrian emigration to the Gulf states (the temporary nature of the immigration, the difficulty of organization, and having to work in other areas of specialties than their own, etc.). The study concludes with the presentation of the most important results of a questionnaire in which seven Syrian elites took part.
- Topic:
- Refugee Issues, Immigration, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, Syria, and OAPEC
9. Gulf Countries as a Destination for Syrian Financial Capital: The Case of the United Arab Emirates
- Author:
- Maher Al Junaidy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the situation of Syrians in the UAE, and their readiness to contribute to the reconstruction of Syria. It has two parts: The first part begins with a look at the history of the Syrian community in the UAE, and then examines the influx of “new Syrians” into the UAE after 2011. It also sheds a light on Syrian groups and organizations assembled by Syrians in the UAE before and after the 2011 Revolution in response to political change in Syria. Finally, it examines the cracks within the Syrian community and its organizations. It concludes by examining the volume of Syrian capital in the UAE, and the economic sectors in which it is located. The second part is based on a survey, conducted by the researcher on a selected sample of Syrian economic, academic, and professional elites residing in the UAE, that conveys their views on the issue of reconstruction in Syria.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Arab Spring, Revolution, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, Damascus, and UAE
10. Blessed Investors and Cursed Refugees: A Reading of Syrian Presence in Jordan
- Author:
- Hana Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the dynamics generated, since 2011, by the influx of 673000 people who have fled the repression of the Syrian regime, and the deterioration of living and security conditions in Syria. By focusing on the new representation of Syrians in Jordan as situation deteriorated into a civil war, the study targets three main topics: 1) the rooted presence of Damascene presence in Transjordan, and its historical role in the Jordanian administration, polity, and economy; 2) the emergence of “Syrian refugees” as a new social category, stigmatized by public policies and discourses, that plays an significant role in the political and social equations of host countries; 3) the vital input of Syrian investors, skilled and/ or qualified people, and manpower, in transforming Syrian tragedy into dynamic opportunities that impacts positively both host and newcomer societies, these opportunities being meant to play an key role when the conflict in Syria will come to an end.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Refugee Issues, Immigration, and Repression
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, Jordan, and Damascus
11. Syrians in Turkey: Groupings, Fractures and a Floundering Civil Society
- Author:
- Sasha Al-Alou
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This paper describes Syrian emigration to Turkey since 2011, and the forms of organization in which Syrian refugees have engaged. It provides figures on the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey inside and outside the camps and the places of their distribution in Turkey, by province. The paper also studies this distribution according to three factors: the nature of asylum (individual/group), the ethnic factors for the groupings, and investment associations. It examines the fissures in the relations between the Syrians in Turkey (based on the region, class, or profession within the Syrian institutions). In addition, it addresses forms of solidarity within Syrian communities in Turkey and inside Syria. These forms of solidarity are classified into three categories: economic, relief, and cultural and political. The paper concludes that the Syrian elite, with its various specializations, was not immune from the situation in Syria; rather the elite also continues to provide support within Syria, and looks forward to the post-conflict phase, in which it can participate in all aspects of reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Immigration, Refugees, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Damascus
12. The Syrian Diaspora in Lebanon: Between a Lack of Policy and a Policy of Alienation
- Author:
- Rayan Majed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This paper is an attempt to monitor the situation of the Syrian diaspora in Lebanon from 2011 until today, without claiming full coverage of all aspects of the subject. It focuses on four diaspora categories as well as the reflection of the Lebanese-Syrian historical relationship and the internal political situation in Lebanon on the Syrian diaspora there. The paper relies on reports from international and human rights organizations and articles on Syrian asylum in Lebanon, and on interviews with Syrian residents living in Lebanon from a variety of backgrounds.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Regional Cooperation, Diaspora, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, Beirut, and Damascus
13. Syrians in the USA: Solidarity Despite Political Rifts
- Author:
- Basma Alloush
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The Syrian American diaspora has been actively engaged in the Syrian uprising through the provision of humanitarian assistance and the entry into political advocacy work. Yet, the Syrian diaspora in the U.S. does not represent a homogenous population group nor a unified political position. On the contrary, assessing the dynamics of the diaspora since 2011 reveals important transformations within diasporic groupings, with the 2011 uprising acting as a catalyst for the emergence of new fractures. Through a mixture of desk research and interviews with key members of the Syrian American diaspora, this paper investigates the evolution of the community and discusses the potential role of the diaspora in a post-conflict Syria. By assessing current and evolving trends within the diaspora from 2011, it is possible to shape future reconstruction plans to effectively include the Syrian American diaspora.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Diaspora, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Syria, North America, and Damascus
14. The Politics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Maha Yahya, Frances Brown, Steven Heydemann, Jacqueline Parry, Dylan O'Driscoll, Caroline Abadeer, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, Deen Sharp, Frederic M. Wehrey, Peter Salisbury, Sune Haugbolle, Pietro Stefanini, and Reyko Huang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Reconstruction following the devastating wars and state failure which followed the Arab uprisings of 2011 has become an increasingly pressing issue. In Iraq, the liberation of territories from the Islamic State came at great human and infrastructural cost. In Syria, the reconquest of territories by the regime of Bashar al-Asad has been accompanied by international discussions of modest steps towards reconstruction, after a war which generated more the half of the world’s refugees and internally displaced whilst sowing devastation across much of the country. Yemen has endured the near complete destruction of its infrastructure and economy, leaving much of the population at risk of starvation and disease. Libya is devastated by its multiple conflicts and the successive disintegration of what is left of its institutional structures. While none of these wars has yet fully ended, international and expert attention is increasingly focused on the impending challenges of reconstruction, repatriation and reconciliation. It is difficult to exaggerate the extent of the destruction which these wars have left behind. These wars have unfolded across multiple levels. Millions of people have been dispossessed from their homes, driven into exile at home or abroad. Infrastructure has been devastated, with many cities and towns utterly destroyed. National economies have evolved into local war economies. State and local institutions have been fundamentally reshaped. Communal polarization around sectarian or political identities has progressed to extreme levels. Entire communities have been severely impoverished as health and educational attainments plummet. And the individual trauma suffered by tens of millions of people afflicted by conflict and violence will have enduring psychological and developmental effects.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, War, Reconstruction, Authoritarianism, Islamic State, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Protests, Memory, Negotiation, Peace, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Gaza, Algeria, Lebanon, and Syria
15. For-Profit Humanitarians: IKEA's Partnership with the Jordan River Foundation
- Author:
- Ammar A. Malik, Hamutal Bernstein, Edward Mohr, and Yasemin Irvin-Erickson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- As the Syrian refugee crisis enters its eighth year, leveraging the private sector’s financial capital and capacity for innovation has emerged as an attractive solution to protracted displacement. But little evidence exists on the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach. This case study highlights a unique type of private-sector engagement in which mainstream business interests align with the needs of refugees and host communities. The IKEA–Jordan River Foundation (JRF) partnership demonstrates how diverse stakeholders can identify synergies, overcome legal and practical barriers, and sustain collaborations through effective management structures.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Business, Displacement, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Jordan
16. A Clean and Decent Life Without WASH? The impacts and risks of reduced WASH funding for Syrian refugees in Bekaa, Lebanon
- Author:
- John Adams
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Lebanon hosts approximately 1.5 million Syrians who have fled the war in their country since 2011. Funding for assistance for refugees and refugee-affected populations in Lebanon is declining sharply across all sectors. As of January 2018, only 9% of the year’s WASH sector appeal had been secured. Unless more funding is secured there will be substantial reductions in WASH services for refugee communities. This report is an analysis of impacts and risks of reduced and limited WASH funding on Syrian refugees in informal tented settlements in Bekaa, Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Sanitation, Humanitarian Crisis, and Hygiene
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
17. National Reconciliation and Protection of Minorities
- Author:
- Salam Kawakibi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In this new research paper, ARI’s Deputy Director, Salam Kawakibi analyses the Assad regime’s exploitation of sectarian and confessional divisions and deconstructs the myths used in its political rhetoric to gain power and present itself as the ultimate line of defence for minorities.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
18. Local Wars and the Chance for Decentralized Peace in Syria
- Author:
- Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For decades, the Assad regime rallied support and crushed dissent in Syrian society through mobilizing networks of local intermediaries. Since 2011, the varying relationships between the central authorities in Syria, these local inter- mediaries, and the country’s different localities have played a fundamental role in shaping the outbreak of protests and descent into armed conflict. While six years of war have left the state’s administrative structures in tatters, Bashar al- Assad’s regime has focused on maintaining, reviving, or renewing its network of local intermediaries to keep control in its areas and retake lost territory. However, the conflict has crucially and irreparably changed local politics in Syria, and a return to the pre-2011 status quo is impossible. For any negotiated settlement to be sustainable, these changes will need to be incorporated into a new, decentralized power-sharing bargain, which will shape Syria’s economic and physical reconstruction and postconflict recovery.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Civil War, and Political Power Sharing
- Political Geography:
- Syria
19. How Regional Security Concerns Uniquely Constrain Governance in Northeastern Syria
- Author:
- Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2012, when Bashar al-Assad’s regime withdrew most of its security forces from the Jazira in northeastern Syria, it ceded local power to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing. The PYD replicated past regime behavior, focusing on maintaining a secure hold of this strategic geographical area at the expense of effective governance. This approach has hindered the prospect of building a self-sustained administration. At the same time, outside actors such as Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, and the United States have inadvertently reinforced the PYD’s security-focused rule while pursuing their own security concerns. Exploring potential avenues to peace and stable governance in Syria requires carefully identifying the interrelated nature of these various actors’ security concerns in the Jazira.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Political Theory, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Syria
20. Eastern Expectations: The Changing Dynamics in Syria’s Tribal Regions
- Author:
- Kheder Khaddour and Kevin Mazur
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With all eyes on western Syria, developments in eastern Syria, which is populated mainly by tribal communities, will be just as important for the country’s future. Numerous parties involved in Syria’s conflict—including the Assad regime, radical Islamists, Turkey, and the Kurds—have sought to integrate tribal leaders into their political agendas, believing their tribes would follow. However, these leaders no longer have the authority they once did. Syria’s conflict has forced tribal communities to turn inwards, and such localization has further undermined tribal solidarities.
- Topic:
- Political structure and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Syria