Search

Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief

6881. The United States and India 3.0: Cave! Hic Dragones

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and India share the fundamental objective of preserving an Asia that is peaceful, prosperous, and free. Without security, India's meteoric rise cannot continue. While New Delhi can manage Pakistan, its longtime regional adversary, it will have more difficulty confronting the challenges posed by a rising China. As a result, India will continue to depend on the United States to preserve order in Asia until it can protect its own interests there.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, China, India, and Asia

6882. WTO Reform: The Time to Start Is Now

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since its inception in 1995, the World Trade Organization has been the guardian of stability and predictability in world trade, but it has failed to fulfill its promise as a source of new trade rules and liberalization. Conclusion of the diluted Doha Development Agenda will not end the need for WTO reform. At the heart of WTO reform must be a more flexible approach to negotiations, one more tailored to the needs of individual countries and groups. The process of reflection and consultation on WTO reform should begin with the WTO Ministerial in Geneva in November.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Geneva

6883. Islam and the Paths of Pakistan's Political Development

Author:
Peter Topychkanov
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
National identity remains a very serious issue in Pakistan today. There has never been a clear answer to the question of how many nations live within the country — one or more. n The constitutional process, accompanied by tensions in communal relations, bears witness to serious ideological differences in society over the role religion should play in social and political life. Pakistan's Islamization, through giving traditional Muslim standards legal force, has not been completed, but many traditional standards have now been written into law and have thus become an integral part of the country's political and legal system. Solutions to Pakistan's problems should be based on comprehensive approaches that avoid experiments with Islam — one of the foundations of Pakistan's statehood — and emphasize administrative, social, economic, and security issues.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

6884. The Obama Administration's New Counternarcotics Strategy in Afghanistan: Its Promises and Potential Pitfalls

Author:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Nearly eight years after a U.S.-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime, Afghanistan remains far from stable. As President Barack Obama considers alternatives to increasing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, his administration's new counternarcotics strategy meshes well with counterinsurgency and state-building efforts in the country. It is a welcome break from previous ineffective and counterproductive policies. The effectiveness of the policy with respect to counternarcotics, counterinsurgency and state-building, however, will depend on the operationalization of the strategy. The details are not yet clear, but the strategy potentially faces many pitfalls.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

6885. Is the G-20 Summit a Step Toward a New Global Economic Order?

Author:
Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Bradford
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In November 2008, President George W. Bush convened the first G-20 summit in Washington to address the worst global financial economic crisis since the Great Depression. This summit provided a long-overdue opportunity for a dramatic and lasting change in global governance. This was followed by the election of Barack Obama, who had campaigned on a distinctly different foreign policy platform compared with his Republican rival, Senator John McCain. These two events were no mere coincidence.
Topic:
International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Washington

6886. Bosnia's Dual Crisis

Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) post-war status quo has ended but the international community risks muddling the transition by delaying decisions on a new kind of engagement. Republika Srpska (RS), one of the state's two entities, has defied the High Representative, Bosnia's international governor, and the international community has not backed him up. Instead, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) launched in October 2009 on the Butmir military base outside Sarajevo a high-level effort to persuade the country's leaders to adopt far-reaching constitutional reforms and allow the mandate of the High Representative and his office (OHR) to end. Disagreements over the scope and content of reform make agreement uncertain. But Bosnia's leaders should adopt as much of the EU-U.S. proposal as possible, and the international community should end its protectorate in favour of a new, EU- and NATO-led approach including strong security guarantees.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Balkans

6887. The Future of the Dollar

Author:
Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US dollar is not the world's key currency by policy design, just as English is not the leading global language by policy design. It is the evolutionary outcome of practice and experience. It would take both a major shock to the dollar and a viable alternative to dislodge it from widespread use. Like a common language, the dollar enjoys “network externalities”— the greater the number of people who use and accept it, the more useful it is to everyone, and the more entrenched it becomes. Also, what is not quite the same thing, the dollar enjoys a large market in low-risk and highly liquid securities, most notably US Treasury bills; the liquidity both enhances and is enhanced by the network externalities. Most of the world's foreign exchange transactions directly involve the US dollar. It is easy to hold and easy to use, even on a large scale. In short, it is highly convenient.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6888. Why SDRs Could Rival the Dollar

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In a recent Cato Institute paper, Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar (2009) asserts that the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (SDRs) cannot rival the US dollar, as suggested by the Chinese central bank governor (Zhou Xiaochuan 2009). “The SDR is not a currency and never can be,” Swami declares confidently in the first paragraph of his paper. He presents two arguments, which are presumably supposed to be proofs of this proposition.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6889. The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As oil prices began to rise in 2009 from a low point of about $40 a barrel in January to around $70 a barrel in July, a key question is whether the world is in for another oil price spike in the near term similar to that witnessed in early 2008. Several hypotheses were advanced when world oil prices started their inexorable climb from 2003–04 onwards, then skyrocketed from $92 a barrel in January 2008 to cross the $140 a barrel mark in June, finally hitting a record high of $147 a barrel on July 11, 2008, before collapsing to less than $40 a barrel in December (figure 1). There was the “peak oil” explanation, based on the theories of M. King Hubbert of “Hubbert's Peak” fame and his supporters, notably Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons, that the world was running out of oil. There were the market “fundamentalists,” including importantly John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Philip Verleger, a well-known oil expert, who argued that the fundamentals of demand and supply were primarily behind the extraordinary rise in oil prices in the first half of 2008 (Lipsky 2009a, 2009b; Verleger 2005, 2008). Interestingly, this fundamentals view was also shared by the US Treasury and was articulated by David McCormick, then undersecretary for international affairs, in a presentation in July 2008 at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Finally, there were those who maintained that such an increase could only be a “bubble,” unexplained by peak oil theory or market fundamentals. Many financial-market participants were proponents of this third view, notably Michael Masters (2008), as well as the main oil producers, who were as surprised as anyone at the speed and size of the price increase over only a few months. Their argument was that the phenomenal increase in financialization of commodity markets during 2006–08, including in particular the oil market, led to speculation and momentum trading, which pushed oil prices way beyond their long-term equilibrium level as determined by fundamentals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

6890. The Global Economic Crisis after One Year: Is a New Paradigm for Recovery in Developing Countries Emerging?

Author:
Wim Naudé
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
T HE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND RECESSION, WHICH spread across the globe following the US sub-prime mortgage crisis in September 2008, has become the dominant news topic of the past year. One year into the crisis it has become clear that the paradigm for international development has changed irrevocably. With leadership, moral authority and the capacity of the West diminishing, developing countries' recovery and future growth will critically depend on their own initiatives and solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States