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  • Publication Date: 05-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 04-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 03-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 02-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 01-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jeffrey Boutwell, George Rathjens
  • Publication Date: 12-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
  • Abstract: The global effect of the September 11 terror attacks on New York and Washington, DC demonstrated yet again that, in today' s world, national security no longer is confined within national boundaries. Fully one-third of the more than 3,000 people killed in the attacks were non- Americans, citizens of more than 60 countries. The economic and social impacts of the terror attacks were similarly global; in addition to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and worldwide, World Bank President James Wolfensohn estimated that that“ between 20,000 and 40,000 more children” would die, and millions of people would be “ condemned to live below the poverty line” because of the global recession that became more severe because of September 11.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: New York, Washington, Asia
  • Author: Jeffrey Boutwell, George Rathjens
  • Publication Date: 12-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
  • Abstract: As we went to press, the election of a new US President was still undecided. More than a week after 100 million Americans went to the polls, the ultimate margin of victory for either George W. Bush or Al Gore appeared to hinge on several hundred Florida votes. Whoever does take office on January 20, the next American President (and Commander in Chief), the man with ultimate authority over the world' s largest nuclear arsenal, will begin his term in office in the most politically tenuous position of any American president in perhaps a century.
  • Topic: Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, War
  • Political Geography: America
6418. East Timor
  • Author: Lynn Fredriksson
  • Publication Date: 12-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Foreign Policy In Focus
  • Abstract: The half-island nation of East Timor was a colony of Portugal for some 450 years. After the Portuguese dictatorship fell in April 1974, the Indonesian government began to intervene in the decolonization process. When it became clear that it had little political support in East Timor, the Indonesian regime launched a military offensive from West Timor and fomented a civil war in the summer of 1975.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Human Rights, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, Southeast Asia
  • Author: John Feffer
  • Publication Date: 12-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Foreign Policy In Focus
  • Abstract: It was a striking juxtaposition, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il sitting side by side at a display of mass gymnastics in Pyongyang this last October. “Spectacular and amazing,” Albright called the coordinated movements of the 100,000 performers. When a picture of the August 1998 Taepodong rocket launch was displayed, Kim Jong Il confided that it would be his country's first and last such launch. The North Korean leader was a man with whom she could do business, Albright concluded at the end of her visit. The U.S. and North Korea, technically at war for over fifty years, had never before been on quite such cordial speaking terms.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang
  • Author: Dan Connell
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Foreign Policy In Focus
  • Abstract: Some two million Sudanese—nearly 8% of the country's population—have lost their lives to war or famine-related causes since 1983, when fighting resumed in Africa's longest running civil war. Millions more have been displaced, many fleeing to neighboring states. Despite competing peace initiatives on the table today, there is no end in sight to the conflict. Instead, the prospects are for intensified combat as the war spreads to new areas of the country.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Migration
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Sudan