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6381. Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran

6382. Lebanon's Evolving Relationship with Syria: Back to the Future or Turning a New Page?

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Lebanon's outreach to Syria is motivated by significant shifts in the regional political landscape, particularly Syria's renewed regional and global influence. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri appears to have made a strategic decision that rapprochement with Syria is in Lebanon's best interest, offering the greatest chance for stability and resolution of a number of outstanding bilateral issues including greater guarantees for Lebanese sovereignty. Syria's renewed influence in Lebanon comes in a variety of forms, but its alliance with Hezbollah is the most potent trajectory of its power and influence. It is too early to determine whether this shift in relations marks a return of Syrian predominance in Lebanon, or signals a new page in the bilateral relationship. Much will depend on how Syria and Lebanon as well as external players—especially the U.S. and France—contend with the inherent challenges and opportunities that accompany evolving Syrian-Lebanese ties. The establishment of Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic ties presents the United States with an important opportunity to help foster normal relations between the neighboring countries, particularly the long-sought goal of protecting Lebanese sovereignty. Washington should move forward with dispatching an ambassador to Damascus as part of a broader engagement with Syria. Establishment of high-level diplomatic channels in Syria will allow the United States to leverage its influence more directly and effectively to ensure that Syria moves forward on border demarcation with Lebanon and other measures to help bolster Lebanese sovereignty.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Lebanon and Syria

6383. The Premiership

Author:
Sean Kane
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The institution of Iraq's prime minister has evolved since the previous national government was formed in 2006. The success of incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in building an independent power base around the office and the diminishing U.S. presence in Iraq have transformed the perception and stature of Iraq's chief executive. This evolution of the position helps to explain why negotiations over the government's formation have struggled to move beyond the top post to discuss other assignments and the new government's agenda. The talks are not just about agreeing on a prime minister in the context of inconclusive, close election results, and competing regional influences; these talks are trying to define the role of the premiership and possible checks on its power. Understanding the debate on possible checks and balances is important because of its potential ramifications for Iraq's democratic experiment, and also because agreement on this issue might pave the way for the nomination of a prime minister.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

6384. Cocaine and Instability in Africa: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Davin O'Regan
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The dollar value of cocaine trafficked through West Africa has risen rapidly and surpassed all other illicit commodities smuggled in the subregion. Experience from Latin America and the Caribbean demonstrates that cocaine traffic contributes to dra¬matically higher levels of violence and instability. Co-opting key government officials is the preferred modus operandi of Latin American cocaine traf¬fickers. African governments need to act urgently to protect the integrity of their counternarcotics institutions to prevent this threat from developing deeper roots on the continent.
Topic:
Crime and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean

6385. Afghanistan Implementation Colloquium

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The tone of the conference was set by the leitmotiv of LISD's Afghanistan project work since 2001: “by, for, and with the Afghans and Afghanistan.” Most importantly this focuses on Afghan ownership and Afghan sovereignty, and the capability to determine the nation's destiny. However, the atmosphere and attitudes in and around Afghanistan seem to have noticeably shifted in the last eighteen months, especially with regard to the growing trust deficit between Afghans and the international community. Various actors within Afghanistan and within the region are now realigning their policies, motivated mainly by the perception of an impending draw down of international forces in Afghanistan. The possible heightening of tensions with Afghanistan's western neighbor, Iran, over its nuclear ambitions further complicates the West's calculus of involvement in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Iran

6386. Looking afresh at the external representation of the EU in the international arena

Author:
Michael Emerson and Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the wake of the Lisbon Treaty, it is important to review the present arrangements for the institutional representation of the European Union in international organisations, and more broadly, in the processes of international negotiations and the way the EU acts as contracting party to conventions of international law.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

6387. Europe 2020 and the Financial System: Smaller is beautiful

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Meeting Europe's 2020 objectives of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth is even more of a challenge for the financial sector than for the EU as a whole. Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth is just the opposite of what the financial sector stood for, and how it continues to be perceived by the public. The huge regulatory agenda that is on the table should tame the financial sector, but whether it will help it to meet the Europe 2020 objectives is an open question (see European Commission, 2010a).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6388. Shale Fever: Replicating the US gas revolution in the EU?

Author:
Roderick Kefferpütz
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The US natural gas industry is abuzz. Until recently the United States seemed poised to become one of the world's largest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, the development of two innovative drilling techniques – hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – has led to the emergence of new unconventional gas supplies, the majority coming from gas trapped in shale formations, transforming the American energy scene. Today, shale gas is responsible for roughly 20% of total US production with expectations that it could reach 50% by 2035 – an astounding feat given that it represented only 1% back in 2000. The increase in US shale gas production also contributed to the US displacing the Russian Federation as the largest producer of gas, with its production of 624 billion cubic meters (bcm) trumping Russia's 582 bcm. In addition, it has caused LNG demand to sink and sent prices tumbling, turning the market upside-down.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6389. From National to European Regulation: Towards European Financial Supervisory Authorities

Author:
H. Onno Ruding
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Financial reform is needed now in the EU not only to reduce the likelihood of another financial crisis in the coming years but also to reinforce the internal market. A primary financial as well as political goal should be to create a truly single market in Europe for financial services and institutions. The current state of affairs is, however, still too far removed from this goal.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6390. Towards a Euro(pean) Monetary Fund

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The case of Greece has ushered in the second phase of the financial crisis, namely that of sovereign default. Members of the euro area were supposed to be shielded from a financial market meltdown. But, after excess spending during the period of easy credit, several euro area members are now grappling with the implosion of credit-financed construction and consumption booms. Greece is the weakest of the weak links, given its high public debt (around 120% of GDP), compounded by a government budget deficit of almost 13% of GDP, a huge external deficit of 11% of GDP and the loss of credibility from its repeated cheating on budget reports.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe