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  • Author: Oxford Analytica
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Moscow
  • Author: Oxford Analytica
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Oxford Analytica
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to espouse a new 'moral' emphasis in foreign policy. While a complete abandonment of self–interest for ethics can be dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia
  • Author: Oxford Analytica
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Michael J. White
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Migration is the demographic process that links rural to urban areas, generating or spurring the growth of cities. The resultant urbanization is linked to a variety of policy issues, spanning demographic, economic, and environmental concerns. Growing cities are often seen as the agents of environmental degradation. Urbanization can place stress on the land through sprawl; coincident industrial development may threaten air and water quality. In the eyes of many observers, rapid urbanization is also linked to problems of unemployment and the social adaptation of migrants in their new urban setting. Cities advertise society's inequalities in income, housing, and other social resources, whether these problems are new or just newly manifest in urban settings. Most of the migration conventionally liked to these urban issues was seen as following a conventional pattern. In this policy brief I raise some issues about the nature of contemporary, migratory behavior, both for our understanding of processes of population redistribution directly, and for understanding some of the implications of that redistribution. Contemporary research is sketching the contours of this migratory behavior and the social adjustment that accompanies it. New research is beginning to shed light on the rate of migrant adaptation, on the connection between origin and destination communities through remittances, and the demographic structure and dynamics of refugee movements.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, Economics, Migration
  • Author: David Everatt
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Comparative Urban Studies Project Policy Brief Yet Another Transition? Urbanization, Class Formation, and the End of National Liberation Struggle in South Africa Presented February 8-9, 1999, at the Woodrow Wilson Center for the Comparative Urban Studies Project's Research Working Group on Urbanization, Population, the Environment, and Security funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. These policy briefs do not represent an official position of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars or the U.S. Agency for International Development. Opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. South Africa's negotiated settlement is widely hailed as a small miracle. What is the state of the miracle five years on?
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Richard Middleton, John Kalbermatten, Peter Rogers
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: In large urban area of developing countries, about 30% of the population does not have access to safe water, and 50% does not have adequate sanitation. That means that over 500 million people do not have safe water, and 850 million people do not have proper sanitation. By the year 2020, there will be nearly 2 billion more people in urban areas needing these services. Putting it another way, in the next 20 years water supply coverage will have to more than triple, and sanitation coverage more than quadruple, if everyone in these countries is to be adequately served. To do this, even at a low consumption figure of 100 liters/person/day, will require an additional 88 BCM/year - both of water to be supplied and of wastewater to be safely disposed of.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Alan Gilbert
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: This paper will argue that no consistent or meaningful relationship exists between urbanization and security. For a start, the words urbanisation and security do not mean a great deal because they embrace too many cross-cutting ideas and processes. Second, researchers have found few consistent correlations between the numerous dimensions of security and urbanisation. Third, insofar as one can find a close correlation, independent variables usually account for the statistical relationship. Fourth, even when a direct correlation between security and urbanisation exists, the direction of causation is by no means obvious. Finally, every country and every city contains so much internal variation that most generalisations across nations, let alone across regions, are rendered meaningless.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Civil Society, Development, Government
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1998. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2 identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3 lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4 lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: This report presents summary data on the 100 prime contractors receiving the largest dollar volume in Department of Defense (DoD) awards over $25,000 for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT) work during fiscal year (FY) 1998. RDT work can include research (basic and applied) and development (exploratory, advanced, engineering, operational systems, or management and support services). Full definitions for each of these categories are provided in Section 235.001 of the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement. These data rank each corporation according to its relative standing. The order of ranking is based on the net value of each contractor's RDT awards. Beginning in FY 1994, the contractors have been ranked by the parent company vs. subsidiaries or divisions of the company as in past issues of this publication. For example, figures for General Motors Corporation include awards to Hughes Aircraft Company. Also, classification of a company as foreign is based on the parent company. Beginning in FY 1996, only the top 100 contractors are listed in this publication. When percentages are used for dollar amounts they are based on whole dollars. Table 1 lists the 100 contractors in alphabetical order, displays the order of ranking for each, and shows how each has been categorized for reporting purposes. The categories are business firm (B), foreign contractor (F), and nonprofit institution (N). Table 2 shows the net value of awards to U.S. business firms. Those firms which qualify as small businesses are further identified by an "S." The net value of awards to each of the firm's reported locations is also provided. Tables 3 and 4 provide the net value of awards to U.S. educational and other nonprofit institutions and foreign contractors. As in Table 1, contractors in Tables 2 through 4 are shown by order of ranking, with their total awards indicated by an asterisk (*). The value of awards to each of the contractor's reported locations is also shown for these tables.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States