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7302. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and the US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia's huge gains from the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
7303. A new budget for the European Union?
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi, Maria Teresa Salvemini, and Alfonso Iozzo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The present budget of the European Union has long ceased to represent European policy priorities; it is the result of decisions taken decades ago and subsequent incremental adjustments decided under the pressure of external events or for political expediency. Its increasing detachment from emerging needs and policy priorities undermines support for the Union among public opinion.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7304. Is the League of Democracies a Bad Idea? How Europe should respond
- Author:
- Richard Youngs and Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The idea of an official organisation of democratic states wishing to promote democracy worldwide has surfaced periodically in recent years. In 2000 the Community of Democracies was inaugurated and survives as a body committed to supporting democratic change (and we comment on this little-noticed initiative further below). Now the notion is gaining further currency. US Presidential candidate John McCain has advocated a League of Democracies. And analyst Robert Kagan, an advisor to McCain, has recently made a contribution on the subject in the Financial Times. It is quite possible that the European Union will need to adopt a position on this proposal.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
7305. Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed and how can it be implemented?
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer, Asbjørn Aaheim, Darryn McEvoy, Frans Berkhout, Reinhard Mechler, Henry Neufeldt, Anthony Patt, Paul Watkiss, Anita Wreford, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, and Carlo Lavalle
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief provides a first overview of the state of ADAM research that was discussed during the first ADAM-CEPS seminar on 12 October 2007. It brought together academic experts, policy-makers and the civil society to discuss adaptation issues and (preliminary) ADAM research results.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7306. What next? How to save the Treaty of Lisbon
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Sebastian Kurpas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the Irish no-vote on the Treaty of Lisbon, numerous scenarios are currently being debated. This paper critically assesses the legality and political feasibility of the principal proposals and then puts forward an alternative 'Plan B', which we believe would amply satisfy both criteria.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
7307. The Future of European Electricity: Choices before 2020
- Author:
- Arno Behrens, Henry Neufeldt, Gunnar Eskeland, Eberhard Jochem, Thure Traber, and Nathan Rive
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The electricity sector plays a central role in the European Union's efforts to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of at least 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. While the electricity sector is currently responsible for about one-third of Europe's total energy-related GHG emissions, there are large potentials for reducing emissions. Mitigation strategies will need to focus on more efficient electricity use, but also on improved conversion rates and new technologies such as renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Apart from mitigation of climate change, the sector will also have to adapt to climate change. Global warming will have a significant impact on the ability to generate electricity and to deliver it without interruption. This ADAM-CEPS Policy Brief focuses on four issues relevant to the nexus between climate change and the electricity sector.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7308. Is Social Europe Fit for Globalisation?
- Author:
- Jørgen Mortensen, ain Begg, and Juraj Draxler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief picks up the main observations and arguments included in a study undertaken by CEPS for the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission. It was presented by Iain Begg at a major Commission conference in Brussels on 16 April 2008, which had broad attendance by officials, media people and researchers, and was concluded by a keynote speech by José Manuel Barroso, President of the Commission. The conference took place at a time of emerging financial crisis and rising oil and food prices, aspects emphasised by some speakers as elements throwing new light on some of the arguments in the report. Hans-Gert Pöttering, President of the European Parliament, stressed that promotion of knowledge and innovation constitutes an important condition for enhancing the competitiveness of the European economy. Thus, the Union should take on a leadership role in combining globalisation with social policy, fighting climate change and fostering environmental stability. Mr. Barroso, in his conclusions underlined the necessity of a renewal of social policies based on equal opportunities, access and solidarity.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7309. Essential Steps for the European Union after the "No" Votes in France, the Netherlands Ireland
- Author:
- John Temple Lang and Eamonn Gallagher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In the referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon in June 2008, Irish voters who voted against the Treaty gave several specific reasons as well as a variety of vague or general reasons that were unrelated to anything that was in the Treaty. These vague or general reasons are important because they probably were also significant influences in the “no” votes in France and the Netherlands. Moreover, they may be shared by a substantial but unknown number of people in other EU member states who did not get an opportunity to vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty or the Treaty for a Constitution. There were positive referendum results in Luxembourg and Spain. Other countries promised referenda, but did not hold them.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Netherlands, and Ireland
7310. Post-Mortem on Europe's First War of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili's folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia's continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petro-power and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
7311. Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative
- Author:
- Olivier Roy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Why do we bother, in Europe, about 'Islamic radicalisation'? The answer seems obvious. There are at least two good reasons: one is terrorism, with its security implications; the other is the issue of integrating second-generation migrants in Europe, apparently the most fertile ground for recruiting terrorists. For most observers, the link between terrorism and integration is a given fact. Al Qaeda-type terrorist activities carried out either in Europe, or by European residents and citizens abroad, are seen as the extreme form, and hence as a logical consequence, of Islam- related radicalisation. There is a teleological approach consisting of looking in retrospect at every form of radicalisation and violence associated with the Muslim population in Europe as a harbinger of terrorism.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7312. Closing the Community Deficit in the EU
- Author:
- Amitai Etzioni
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The main challenge currently facing the EU is a community deficit: the low valuation the majority of its citizens accord the evolving collectivity. The EU is challenged by the mismatch between its increasing supranational decision making and the strong loyalties of its citizens to their respective nation states. To deal with this community deficit, the EU must either introduce strong measures of community building or else significantly scale back its plans for action in unison.
- Topic:
- International Organization and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7313. The French Presidency's European Pact on Immigration and Asylum: Intergovernmentalism vs Europeanisation? Security vs Rights?
- Author:
- Sergio Carrera and Elspeth Guild
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- well before the French Presidency took over the European Council in July 2008, it was well known that immigration was going to constitute one of its central priorities. The French enthusiasm coincided with an increasing interest by Barroso's Commission in this domain. The French government and the European Commission started to fine-tune their respective strategies and 'the way forward' through a series of informal meetings. This materialised in the presentation of two policy outputs: First, a Commission Communication on a Common Immigration Policy for Europe and another on a Policy Plan on Asylum; and second, various drafts of the French Presidency's European Pact on Immigration and Asylum, the latest of which appeared on September 3rd. This Policy Brief refers to all previous drafts offered up for public comment so far.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7314. Should central banks target stock prices?
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The question of whether central banks should react to stock price developments has been hotly debated. This discussion has intensified since the eruption of the credit crisis. According to some analysts, including myself, the failure of the US Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan to react to the bubbles in the stock and housing markets helps to explain the financial excesses and the subsequent crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
7315. Ten Issues and Recommendations for the European Parliament Elections on Freedom, Security and Justice
- Author:
- Sergio Carrera, Elspeth Guild, and Kees Groenendijk
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The European Parliament (EP) elections will take place on 4-7 June 2009. The various political parties of the EU are now beginning to focus on their programmes for the upcoming campaign. Many areas of EU policy will be critical during these elections and the themes will vary substantially from one member state to another in an EU of 27 countries. Still, the issues that have become part of EU law over the past five years through the exercise of Treaty powers in the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ) will need to be addressed all across the Union. These policies lay at the heart of every person's interest and concern as they have deep implications for his or her degree of liberty and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7316. The Demonstration Phase for Carbon Capture and Storage: The case for public support
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as a key technology, without which the achievement of EU and global climate change targets will be extremely difficult. In order to reach these targets, the EU aims to have CCS technology available on a commercial basis as of 2020, which adds a certain sense of urgency to the endeavour. To this end, in 2007, the European Council announced up to 12 large-scale CCS demonstration plants. No decision on possible public financial support has so far been taken.
- Topic:
- Climate Change and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7317. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to 'euroise' recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level toward s visa 'liberalisation', which means scrapping visas rather than just 'facilitation' measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards 'functional membership' of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, and Lisbon
7318. Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty: Quo Vadis?
- Author:
- John O'Brennan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the electorate on 12 June 2008 has presented the Irish government with the most serious crisis in external relations since the Second World War. This was the third such referendum on Europe held in Ireland since the millennium and the second plebiscite in three to result in a rejection of an EU Treaty following the failed Nice poll in 2001. There is no obvious solution to the dilemma the government faces and no obvious pathway to achieve ratification. There is however a clear consensus amongst the political parties that ratification constitutes both a clear political priority and a fundamental national interest. At the October European Council summit in Brussels, Taoiseach Brian Cowen promised to come back to the December meeting “with a view to our defining together the elements of a solution and a common path to follow”. But the external context is now clear – EU leaders indicated an unwillingness to re-negotiate any part of the Treaty: it will be up to Ireland to find an Irish solution to this European problem. Thus the opportunity cost of the No vote has become somewhat clearer: Ireland faces marginalisation and isolation in Europe if a solution to the Lisbon dilemma is not found. The domestic context is also somewhat clearer now that we have access to extensive data that sheds light on the reasons for the No vote in the 12 June poll. In assessing the options for ratification this paper draws upon that data, presented in among other sources, the post-referendum Eurobarometer survey and the government-commissioned Millward Brown IMS research findings.
- Topic:
- Government, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Lisbon, and Ireland
7319. Climate Governance Post-2012, Options for EU Policy-Making
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This brief focuses on three issues that are especially important in the long-term development of the climate regime: (a) the challenge of the fragmentation of negotiations and governance systems; (b) the challenge of steering and evaluating novel types of privatised and market-based governance mechanisms; and (c) the challenge of designing architectures for global adaptation governance. These three core issues of fragmentation, privatisation and adaptation can be related to the overarching need to define the architecture of the post-2012 regime – and of any subsequent regimes that may follow a Copenhagen agreement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Privatization, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7320. The Banking Crisis: Causes, Consequences and Remedies
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The paradigm that financial markets are efficient has provided the intellectual backbone for the deregulation of the banking sector since the 1980s, allowing universal banks to be fully involved in financial markets, and investment banks to become involved in traditional banking. There is now overwhelming evidence that financial markets are not efficient. Bubbles and crashes are an endemic feature of financial markets in capitalist countries. Thus, as a result of deregulation, the balance sheets of universal banks became fully exposed to these bubbles and crashes, undermining the stability of the banking system. The Basel approach to stabilise the banking system has as an implicit assumption that financial markets are efficient, allowing us to model the risks universal banks take and to compute the required capital ratios that will minimise this risk. I argue that this approach is unworkable because the risks that matter for universal banks are tail risks, associated with bubbles and crashes. These cannot be quantified. As a result, there is only one way out, and that is to return to narrow banking, a model that emerged after the previous large-scale banking crisis of the 1930s but that was discarded during the 1980s and 1990s under the influence of the efficient market paradigm.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe