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7221. North Caucasus Weekly: Human Rights Watch Denounces Abuses in Ingushetia

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 25, Human Rights Watch released a report stating that the situation in Ingushetia is starting to resemble that of Chechnya several years ago in terms of human rights abuses. The New York-based group stated in a summary of the report that the Chechen conflict “overflowed” into Ingushetia, bringing with it “grave conflict dynamics.” “For the past four years Russia has been fighting several militant groups in Ingushetia, which have a loose agenda to unseat the Ingush government, evict federal security and military forces based in the region, and promote Islamic rule in the North Caucasus,” the report's summary stated. “Beginning in summer 2007, insurgents' attacks on public officials, law enforcement and security personnel, and civilians rose sharply. Human Rights Watch condemns attacks on civilians and recognizes that the Russian government has a duty to pursue the perpetrators, prevent attacks, and bring those responsible to account. Attacks on civilians, public officials, and police and security forces are serious crimes. Russia, like any government, has a legitimate interest in investigating and prosecuting such crimes and an obligation to do so while respecting Russian and international human rights law. Regrettably, Russia is failing to respect or to adhere to these laws. Law enforcement and security forces involved in counterinsurgency have committed dozens of extrajudicial executions, summary and arbitrary detentions, and acts of torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

7222. Is the Euro Ready for 'Prime Time'?

Author:
Benjamin J Cohen and Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) became effective nearly a decade ago, the euro was seen as having the potential to be the second pillar of the international monetary system. It was expected to share leadership in monetary affairs with the United States. Ten years later, however, the story looks quite different. Although the euro has firmly established itself as an international currency, the degree of change has been considerably less than expected. Europe's joint money remains at a distinct disadvantage in relation to America's greenback, limiting the role it can play in global monetary governance. The euro is not yet ready for 'prime time' and can at best play only a subordinate role to the dollar in the global system. This can be described as a one-and-a-half currency system – certainly not a two-pillar world. The problem lies in the governance structure of EMU. Because the euro is a currency without a country, based on an inter-state agreement, participating members find it difficult to speak with a single voice. The solution lies in a reform of EMU's governing rules and institutions that would put greater emphasis on the euro's external dimension. On the one hand this calls for more proactive management of the currency's exchange rate by the European Central Bank (ECB), together with an explicit commitment by the Eurogroup –the euro zone's informal committee of finance ministers – to undertake effective coordination of national fiscal policies. On the other hand it means designating a single representative of EMU with real authority to speak on behalf of members in international councils. Unless the euro zone can learn how to project power more successfully than it has until now, dual leadership of monetary affairs at the global level will remain out of reach.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7223. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

7224. The Past as Prelude? Negotiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Rex Brynen
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000–01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

7225. Israeli Perspectives on the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Orit Gal
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
At the beginning of the Oslo Process the greatest challenge was the question of Palestinian statehood; negotiation of the refugee issue was postponed until the later stages. Over a decade later, Palestinian statehood is generally accepted as a given, and the refugee issue has taken centre stage. The Israeli perspective, from a leadership standpoint, is seemingly characterized by a sense of being overwhelmed, owing to the complexity of elements making up the refugee issue, the multiplicity of actors involved, and a heightened sense of uncertainty as to the consequences of any negotiated settlement. More strategic work is needed at the political and policy-making level to determine the resolution level required for the agreement itself. Much of the detail involved will have to be developed outside the main negotiation framework. More research and strategy development work is needed concerning the Israeli public domain, to assess existing attitudes and possible avenues for widening the public discourse. To this end, the Israeli media should also be encouraged to present the different debates and elements of the issue. There is a need for an international task force of leading experts working alongside the negotiation process and translating both sides' strategic options into operational frameworks. Such support could ease the load on the actual negotiating parties, thereby facilitating the decision-making process.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

7226. Controlling Illegal Logging: Using Public Procurement Policy

Author:
Duncan Brack
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The use of public procurement policy by consumer states to create protected markets for legal and sustainable timber is helping to exclude the products of illegal logging, thereby encouraging the legal and sustainable production of timber. Many countries already possess some form of green procurement policy into which criteria for legal and sustainable timber can easily be fitted. In general no new legislation is needed, so this offers a relatively rapid route to tackling imports of illegal timber. Nine countries currently possess some form of timber procurement policy at central government level. Although they are all very recent in implementation, the evidence already suggests that they are having a positive effect on increasing market share for verified legal and sustainable timber. However, the adoption of different criteria and coverage of products risks making it more difficult for exporters to provide supplies of timber; some degree of technical harmonization would be desirable, and seems likely. The inclusion of requirements for legal and sustainable timber in building standards provides another route for promoting these products. At present, however, the points-based systems that these standards are based on usually encourage, rather than require, sustainable timber.
Topic:
Environment, Government, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements

7227. Thinking About the Future of Food: The Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK: 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change? 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops? Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Population
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7228. The International Climate Change Agenda: Opportunities for the G8

Author:
Antony Froggatt
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The countries of the G8 have a key role in establishing a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not only because they produce 40% of global emissions, but because they can help facilitate the diffusion of the technologies necessary to stabilize the climate. Energy efficiency holds the key to both energy and climate security. Currently available technologies and practices will enable short-term and long-term targets to be met. There is a need for international cooperation that leads to increased efficiency standards for products and structures, focused finances and greater human resources and knowledge. Sector initiatives that help drive emissions reductions in heavy energy-consuming sectors will play an important role. Reductions in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions can be significantly increased through greater technological innovation and diffusion. This can be enhanced through greater research cooperation, increased targeted finance and deployment agreements.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology

7229. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

7230. Prospects for an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Area: The World's First Region-to-Region FTA?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The EU and the GCC have seemed close to an agreement on a region-to-region Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – possibly the first in the world between customs unions – for the last two years. The EU seems keener on an agreement than the GCC. An FTA is an element in the EU's Global Europe trade policy strategy and is explicitly linked to energy security concerns. The EU is the GCC's main supplier of goods and services, and since the completion of the GCC Customs Union tariffs are low and the economic effects of an FTA are likely to be small, on goods at least. There may be economic barriers to the final signing of an FTA on both sides: resistance by GCC states to services and investment liberalization; and resistance in the EU over access for GCC refinery products and chemicals. Commentary from the Gulf itself suggests that the EU practice of including clauses on human rights and labour market and environmental regulation may be at the heart of the slow progress from the GCC side.
Topic:
Environment, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

7231. Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Global food prices have risen 83 per cent over the last three years. The increases have been driven by high income growth in emerging economies (probably the single most significant factor), use of crops for biofuels, the relative inelasticity of supply, historically low stock levels and some speculative investment. More recently, national concerns over inflation and prices have led some countries to reduce exports and others to try to build up stocks – creating a feedback loop that feeds on itself to drive prices up still further. In the medium to longer term, 'scarcity trends' – climate change, the cost of energy inputs, scarcity of land and water – could limit the supply-side response. In the immediate term, the priority is to increase both the volume and the quality of humanitarian assistance available to poor people, including by moving away from in-kind food aid and towards cash transfers or voucher systems – although it is important to be clear that there are outstanding questions about how these social protection systems will work, and they should not be seen as a panacea. The issue of compensatory financing may also arise for some countries facing balanceof- payments difficulties. In the longer term, the key challenge is to increase the supply of food: the World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 per cent by 2030, as a result of rising affluence and growing world population. Achieving this challenge will require something close to a revolution, and a massive investment in agriculture in developing countries. If supply fails to keep pace with rising demand, then the question of 'fair shares' is likely to emerge as a significant global issue. Already, the effect of a burgeoning global middle class switching to diets with more meat and dairy products – both relatively inefficient in terms of grain use – has been to reduce the affordability of staple foods for poorer consumers.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, World Bank, and Population

7232. Stress-Testing the Regulators: Market Risks and the EU Economy

Author:
Max Watson
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Today's market turbulence and global imbalances prompt the question whether economic and regulatory policies are poorly designed or just badly implemented. The question is urgent for Europe, which has its own asset booms and imbalances to worry about as well as the backwash of US problems. The imbalances in Europe's economies in large part reflect favourable shocks, such as falling interest rates and growing financial integration. But the 'growth crisis' in Portugal underscores the fact that there can be hard landings, even without a financial crisis, if fiscal policy is unwise and if productivity fails to take off. The current global imbalances and turbulence also have a common backdrop in the long period of unusually easy liquidity and low risk premia during which today's problems built up. This suggests that central banks should be prepared more often to 'lean against the wind' in times of asset price exuberance, and that politicians should not cut taxes or boost spending permanently on the back of revenue gains that result from transient financial booms. Banks and supervisors have many lessons to draw. Some involve going 'back to basics' on issues such as liquidity, off-balance-sheet operations, and the ability to close and reopen banks. Others require a careful look at incentives – in executive pay, rating agency roles and loan production systems. Supervisors also need to take better account of boom-bust cycles when they assess risks, and address cross-border issues in EU banking. Moral hazard has been partly addressed by pain inflicted on bank managements and shareholders. But at the macro level it may be building up as policy-makers act to limit losses in a setting where they cannot trace the ultimate fallout from risks. In future, their discretionary interventions need to be truly exceptional and much more symmetrical, or the money supply and the public debt will ratchet up amid serious resource misallocation.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7233. European Multinationals: A Globalization Scorecard

Author:
Stephen Thomsen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Global competition requires a global response, and European firms are now at the forefront of attempts to become internationally diversified multinational enterprises. European firms have been accused at various times of being too focused on their integrating regional market or too tied by historical links with certain countries or regions to develop a genuinely global strategy. Yet figures for foreign direct investment suggest not only that European firms have invested far more abroad than their American and Japanese rivals, but that they have also done so in far more countries. Of particular relevance for long-term profitability, European enterprises have a much stronger presence in emerging markets than either US or Japanese firms. Europe has in turn received more inward investment from those countries than either the United States or Japan. These growing links between Europe and emerging economies could provide European firms with a competitive edge in what are the most promising markets of the future.
Topic:
Globalization and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7234. Exploiting Europe's Strong Potential: Governance, Institutions and Policies

Author:
Paola Subacchi, Benedicta Marzinotto, and Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
With the euro approaching the tenth anniversary of its establishment, this is a timely as well as critical moment to review policies and performance. Enough experience of the convergence and adjustment processes has been gained to better understand how they work and what problems have been created rather than solved. As the strengths – and the success – of the euro become more visible, so too do its weaknesses and the conflicts it creates. Are the appropriate mechanisms and governance in place to help manage Europe's economy so that it can realize its potential? Governance is critical because of the institutional complexity of the monetary union. Independent policy targets and policy instruments not only have to be consistent with each other, but also need to be integrated in a nonconflicting framework. There are two threads to this debate: convergence and adjustments across the euro area, and how the region as a whole is performing with regard to the rest of the world. Both imply a new approach to governance. When EMU was established, the euro area comprised 11 founding members. Now it comprises 15 and is slowly expanding. Ten years ago the emergence of China was more a possibility than a reality, while the 'Asian Tigers' were coming to terms with a devastating financial crisis. Now the rise of the emerging market economies and the enlargement of the global economy's playing field pose significant challenges to the competitiveness of the euro area. With the euro now becoming the second pillar of the international monetary system, EMU's external dimension has become very relevant. The way forward needs to blend the traditional concerns for macroeconomic stability and competitiveness with the more recent concern about the role of Europe in the global economy. All these dimensions need to be organized into a coherent agenda. The right policy should be implemented at the right time.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
Europe

7235. North Caucasus Weekly: Ingush Opposition Leaders Demand Aushev's Return

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The campaign to gather signatures on a petition calling for the return of Ruslan Aushev as Ingushetia's president has been completed. According to the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website, leaders of the opposition to Ingushestia's current president, Murat Zyazikov, said during a press conference in Moscow on July 10 that a total of 105,000 signatures had been gathered, out of which 80,000 had been forwarded to the federal authorities in Moscow. According to the opposition leaders, an additional 25,000 signatures were seized by members of the anti-organized crime directorate (UBOP) of Ingushetia's Interior Ministry during a raid.
Political Geography:
Moscow, North Caucasus, and Ingushetia

7236. North Caucasus Weekly: Police and Servicemen Attacked, Lawyer's Relatives Abducted in Chechnya

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Unidentified attackers wounded a policeman in a drive-by shooting in the Chechen town of Vedeno on July 16, Kavkazky Uzel reported. The gunmen shot the policeman, who was guarding a building housing a branch of the Russian Pension Fund, from a Zhiguli automobile and managed to get away, a Chechen police source told the website. Also on July 16, militants ambushed local police in the Shatoi district settlement of Musolt-Yurt, killing one policeman and wounding three, Itar-Tass reported, quoting a Chechen law-enforcement source. A group of Defense Ministry servicemen conducting a reconnaissance-engineering mission near the town of Shali hit a landmine on the roadside of the Agishty-Shali highway on July 15. One of the servicemen was injured. On July 14, unidentified gunmen driving in a Lada car fired automatic weapons at a car carrying two federal Interior Ministry officers in the Tersk Mountains in Chechnya's Groznensky district. The two officers—a colonel and a warrant officer—were severely wounded in the attack. On July 11, militants detonated a powerful explosive device in the path of a column of military vehicles in Chechnya's Shali district. The blast killed an officer from a unit of Interior Ministry Internal troops and wounded two contract servicemen.
Political Geography:
Russia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

7237. North Caucasus Weekly: Kadyrov Wants Russian Military to Vacate Land and Installations in Chechnya

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Speaking during a government meeting in Grozny on July 19, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov demanded that the heads of power and law-enforcement organs strictly follow the law in using land and installations in Chechnya. “The Chechen Republic is a full-fledged subject of the Russian Federation; the constitution and other laws of Russia and the Chechen Republic function here,” Newsru.com quoted him as saying. “And I am firmly convinced that not only the civilian authorities, but also the military command of units and sub-units deployed in the republic are also strictly obligated to observe them.”
Political Geography:
Russia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

7238. The Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Facilities

Author:
Ken Berry
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
International concern over the security of Pakistan's nuclear facilities has significantly increased with recent turmoil there. But how justified is this concern? Pakistan carries out a full range of activities relating to nuclear weapons: from mining and milling raw materials; through the production of heavy water, tritium, highly enriched uranium and plutonium; to weaponization. It also has an advanced missile program. Yet little is actually known about the security of all these facilities, apart from the fact that they are guarded by a specially trained force of 10,000 separate from, but under the control of, the military.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan

7239. Narcoterrorism

Author:
Jonas Hartelius
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The concept of “narcoterrorism” was introduced in 1983 by the Peruvian President Belaunde Terry to designate terrorist-like attacks against his country's drug enforcement police. Drug criminals utilized methods from political assailants to influence the politics of the country by causing terror and obstructing justice. Later, ideology-driven terrorist organizations took up illegal drug trade as a source of income.
Topic:
Terrorism

7240. A Day in the Future - Accelerating Solutions to Security Threats

Author:
Leland Russell and Greg Austin
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The security environment of the future will be shaped by transnational threats evolving from wars, violent extremism, natural disasters, pandemics, and unaddressed systemic problems—including poverty, organized crime, and environmental degradation. Technology will remain a force-multiplier for violent extremists, not only for higher levels of lethality, but for propaganda dissemination. Real-time, global communication will exacerbate the psychological impact of potential threats and the aftermath of incidents.