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6741. Palestine and Israel: Time for Plan B

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The international effort to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has come to a dead end, at least for the present. Things can—and might well—get worse unless the United States and other outside actors couple a realistic view of the present with a serious effort to push for a more promising future. The first step in a new diplomatic approach must be to establish a cease-fire that builds on the common interest of both Israel and Hamas to avoid fighting in the short term. A new cease-fire should be clear and perhaps even written; mediators (whether Arab or European) must be willing to make an agreement more attractive to both sides to sustain (Hamas can be enticed by some opening of the border with Egypt; Israel will demand serious efforts against the supply of arms to Hamas). The second step must be an armistice that would offer each side what they crave for the present—Israel would get quiet and a limit on arms to Hamas; Palestinians would get open borders, a freeze on settlements, and an opportunity to rebuild their shattered institutions. Such an armistice must go beyond a one-year cease-fire to become something sustainable for at least five to ten years. Finally, the calm provided by the armistice must be used to rebuild Palestinian institutions and force Palestinians and Israelis to confront rather than avoid the choices before them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

6742. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume X, Issue 11

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In this issue: Four Militants Killed in Kabardino-Balkaria Militants and Security Forces Battle in Dagestan General Asks Chechens to Inform on Rebels Briefs Ingush Insurgency Approaches Major CrossroadsBy Mairbek Vatchagaev Exclusive Interview with Anzor Astemirov, March 2009By Fatima Tlisova.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia

6743. Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After nearly a year of seemingly endless talks brokered by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Zimbabwe's long-ruling ZANU-PF party and the two factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formed a coalition government in February. Opposition entry into government is a landmark development, and broad segments of the population are optimistic for the first time in years that a decade of repression and decline can be reversed. There is considerable international scepticism whether the flawed arrangement can succeed; many are tempted, with some reason, to second-guess the decision of mainstream MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai to accept the deal under SADC and ZANU-PF pressure. But he had no good alternative, given a collapsed economy and humanitarian catastrophe from which his constituency was suffering. Donors should re-engage and apply a “humanitarian plus” aid strategy. South Africa, in collaboration with SADC, should negotiate retirement of hardline senior security leaders in the lifespan of the inclusive government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

6744. The Carter Center News Spring 2009

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Last November, The Carter Center was one of the sponsors of a major health initiative in Ethiopia, in which some 5 million people were treated for trachoma and tested (and treated, when needed) for malaria in a one-week campaign. You might wonder how many staff members The Carter Center sent from Atlanta headquarters to Ethiopia to handle this unprecedented, labor-intensive effort, called Maltra week. We sent one person.
Topic:
Health and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Ethiopia

6745. Annual Review of Global Peace Operations 2009

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After several years of continuous expansion, reform and resiliency, in 2008 global peacekeeping was pushed to the brink. This publication warned in 2006 that peacekeeping faced a risk of overstretch. In 2007 it highlighted the mounting pressures on peacekeeping organizations, while stressing that peace operations had shown surprising resilience. By 2008 peacekeeping was spread increasingly thin, in many respects the victim of its own success. Our thematic review that year was by Lakhdhar Brahimi and Salman Ahmed. It cautioned that we risked unlearning the central lesson of the Brahimi Report: that peacekeeping is not a substitute for an effective political process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Peace Studies

6746. Providing Aid in Insecure Environments: 2009 Update- Trends in violence against aid workers and the operational response

Author:
Abby Stoddard, Adele Harmer, and Victoria DiDomenico
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In 2008, 260 humanitarian aid workers were killed, kidnapped or seriously injured in violent attacks. This toll is the highest of the 12 years that our study has tracked these incidents. The absolute number of attacks against aid workers has risen steeply over the past three years, with an annual average almost three times higher than the previous nine years. Relative rates of attacks per numbers of aid workers in the field have also increased — by 61%. The 2008 fatality rate for international aid workers exceeds that of UN peacekeeping troops.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and International Organization

6747. The Future of Peacekeeping Operations: Fighting Political Fatigue and Overstretch

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In the last sixth months, NATO and the UN have both confronted the possibility that their largest individual peace operations may fail. In Afghanistan, NATO troops have struggled to contain the Taliban. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the UN was unable to halt rebel attacks that displaced as many as 250,000 people last September.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Taliban and Democratic Republic of the Congo

6748. Options for a Democratic Taiwan

Author:
Kerry Brown
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, as Mainland China has been developing and liberalizing its economy, Taiwan has been undergoing an equally remarkable but very different political transformation, from martial law in 1987 to its current status as one of the most vibrant, stable democracies in Asia. Despite its eventful experience of the democratization process, the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2008 proved that Taiwan is now a mature, and stable, democracy. It has passed the ultimate test, seeing the successful transition of rule from one party to another and back again, without social turmoil. Economic performance over the same period has been less striking. Once among the fastestgrowing economies, Taiwan is now afflicted by a relatively low growth rate, and problems over the outflow of capital and investment to the Mainland. The potential for conflict over cross-straits relations remains but it has been significantly reduced under President Ma and by the Mainland Chinese government's greater accommodation with a democratic Taiwan in the last decade. The risk of a military conflict between the two sides, which could drag in the US, and therefore the rest of the world, cannot be entirely discounted, however. Taiwan's greatest challenges in the next decade remain the same as in the last – to maintain its identity, to develop its democratic system, and to handle relations with the Mainland in a way that preserves its interests while avoiding conflict. Taiwan's system, which has so far proved itself robust and effective, faces a new challenge too: how to benefit from the increase in Mainland investment abroad.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, and Asia

6749. Africa's New Human Rights Court: Whistling in the Wind?

Author:
Sonya Sceats
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Human rights abuses on a massive scale continue to afflict the lives of millions of people across the continent of Africa. As in other parts of the world, the obstacles in pursuing justice are currently insurmountable for most victims. Against this troubling backdrop, the African Union (AU) has decided to add a human rights section to its new court which has been agreed upon but not yet set up. This court is called the African Court of Justice and Human Rights. In the meantime, another pan-African human rights court, the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights, has recently opened in Arusha, Tanzania. This court will be wound down to make way for the African Court of Justice and Human Rights but is expected to operate for the next few years at least. These two courts represent the third instalment in efforts since the Second World War to create regional human rights courts. Because they have broad powers to enforce socio-economic rights and the collective rights of peoples, they may be setting an example for new developments around the world. This briefing paper focuses on the African Court of Justice and Human Rights, but it also explains key features of the interim African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights. It addresses questions including: Can victims of human rights abuses bring cases? Will the Court be able to try African heads of state? Will governments comply with judgments?
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa

6750. Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire

Author:
Daniel Litvin
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the United States, European Union and Asia, fears about dependence on oil and gas imports from unstable regions have become a major theme of political debate. This paper provides a high-level and historical perspective on this complex issue. Dependence on oil and gas imports raises real economic- and political-security issues for many countries. Neither the global economic crisis nor climate change policies - both of which look set to restrain oil and gas demand - will solve the problem entirely. In fact, over the next few decades it is likely to become worse.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

6751. Trade and the Global Economic Crisis: Immediate Challenges and Long-term Threats

Author:
Jim Rollo and Peter Holmes
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The collapse of world trade is threatening to create a negative feedback loop to the global economy. Some countries have seen their trade fall by 30–50% in the year to February 2009, a bigger fall than between 1929 and 1930. Annual figures for world trade in 2008 show a big fall in the fourth quarter – a trend that has been accelerating. The world's trade ministers have failed to get the Doha Development Agenda back on track, despite direct instructions from the G20 leaders to do so quickly after the November summit in Washington, DC. This failure sends a very powerful negative signal about the G20's lack of policy coordination on even bigger issues. There is a two-way interaction between trade and the macro-economy at a national and global level. The current crisis is threatening countries that rely on export-led growth, a strategy that has led billions out of poverty. It is imperative for there to be recognition that the current shrinkage in global trade is a macro-economic problem requiring macro-economic solutions, and that the necessary actions must be coordinated.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy

6752. North Africa: The Hidden Risks to Regional Stability

Author:
Claire Spencer
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
North Africa may not be as stable as it looks: socio-economic and political pressures are fracturing the consensus between governments and governed and may overtake terrorism and criminality as the region's main destabilizing forces. With political leadership in the region effectively a lifelong position, the growth of authoritarianism is undermining the prospects for achieving political and economic liberalization. Despite the worsening global economic climate, a window of opportunity exists to accelerate socially sensitive and productive domestic investment and open space for greater autonomous political and economic development. Success depends on renegotiating the social contracts on which North Africa's states are based. A broadening of participation, above all through the extension of legal employment, targeted investment on education, health and skills, and the establishment of independent legal and regulatory frameworks, will go some way towards addressing socio-economic stresses. A change in the political environment, however, requires a re-evaluation of how the region's security climate is seen from outside, with adjustments in the kind of support given to regional governments by its key international partners, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Islam, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Arabia

6753. Immigration in Europe at a Time of Economic Hardship

Author:
Toby Archer
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The global recession is resetting the context of the immigration debate across Europe. Immigration is one of the most visible manifestations of globalization for large numbers of Europeans. Globalization is a disruptive process challenging long held social assumptions and beliefs. It creates resistance, and concern over immigration is part of this. The recession is amplifying this effect significantly. The costs and benefits of globalization have never been equally shared, either within states or amongst them. Certain social groups fear immigration more than others, particularly in labour competition. The recession is leading to national or nationalist priorities becoming more popular and xenophobia can result. Political leaders understand this and even those who actively try to explain the advantages of immigration still tend to discuss it unhelpfully as a security issue. Immigration is a legally complex set of interrelated but different issues. The public discourse tends to not separate them, leading to all immigration issues being politically loaded. The EU plays an important role, but because borders and who can cross them is so closely linked to notions of sovereignty, the Union takes a secondary position to national policies.
Topic:
Globalization, Migration, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe

6754. Czech Point: A Mid-Term Evaluation of an On-Going Small State Presidency

Author:
Tiia Lehtonen
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Czech EU Presidency has now reached its mid-term. It can be reasonably argued that the change of Presidency came at a challenging time for both the EU and the Czech Republic itself. The initial priorities of the Czech Presidency, the 'three Es', were ambitious to say the least, and the provisional results in implementing them are consequently modest at best. The internal disorder of the Czech administration has had a visible and rather negative impact on its competence to run a successful Presidency. The lack of a genuine consensus on various EU issues within the Czech political elite and the autonomy of President Klaus have resulted in problems in terms of satisfactorily driving forward the individual priorities and the Union as a whole. As calls for protectionism have increased in the light of the recession, it has become ever more difficult for the Czech Republic to take a leading position in the EU within the realm of the economic crisis and to find common grounds for all member states. The first European Council meeting under the Czech Presidency will be held on 19th and 20th March in Brussels. Another significant opportunity for the Czechs to exert an influence will be during the G20 Summit in early April.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Czech Republic

6755. Haiti: Saving the Environment, Preventing Instability and Conflict

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Reversing a decades-long trend of environmental destruction is essential to Haiti's development, social and economic stability and, ultimately, security. Instability and violent conflict are not attributable solely to environmental degradation. But they are made more likely by the latter's interaction with such factors as weak institutions and governance, political fragility, pervasive and extreme poverty, vulnerability to natural disasters, rapid population growth, urban overcrowding and social and economic inequality. Concerted national effort and international support is required to stop deforestation and land erosion; reduce energy shortages and charcoal dependence; address rural and urban pollution, including the absence of a solid waste collection and recycling system; and strengthen an inadequate capacity to cope with natural disasters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Post Colonialism

6756. Nigeria: Seizing the Moment in the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The report of the government-constituted Technical Committee on the Niger Delta, submitted to Nigeria's President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua on 1 December 2008, offers an opportunity to reduce violent conflict significantly and begin longer-term regional development in the oil-rich region. The government needs to respond urgently and positively, in particular by accepting a third-party mediator to facilitate discussions of amnesty and demobilisation of militants, in order to dispel growing misgivings in the Delta, save the region from further violence and organised criminality, and ensure Nigeria's continued reliability as a leading source of energy for the world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Oil, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

6757. Just peace? Peacebuilding and rule of law in Africa: Lessons for policymakers

Author:
Olga Martin-Ortega, Chandra Lekha Sriram, and Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Rule of law promotion is integral to peacebuilding, but not always well integrated It is important to distinguish between technical delivery of rule of law assistance and access to justice as perceived by the population Rule of law promotion and transitional justice may be complementary, or competitive Despite emphasis on the formal sector, informal justice processes are often most accessible to the vast majority Such informal processes may be transformed both by conflict and by peacebuilding activities Emphasis on state institutions in rule of law promotion can inadvertently undermine equal access to justice Given these challenges, the international community faces serious dilemmas about whom to engage, and particularly whether to engage the informal sector at all.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

6758. Indonesia: Radicalisation of the "Palembang Group"

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia has earned well-deserved praise for its handling of home-grown extremism, but the problem has not gone away. In April 2009, ten men involved in a jihadi group in Palembang, South Sumatra, were sent to prison on terrorism charges for killing a Christian teacher and planning more ambitious attacks. Their history provides an unusually detailed case study of radicalisation - the process by which law-abiding individuals become willing to use violence to achieve their goals. The sobering revelation from Palembang is how easy that transformation can be if the right ingredients are present: a core group of individuals, a charismatic leader, motivation and opportunity. Another ingredient, access to weapons, is important but not essential: the Palembang group carried out its first attack with a hammer and only later moved to making bombs.
Topic:
Political Violence and Islam
Political Geography:
Asia

6759. Which Diaspora for Whose Development? Some Critical Questions about the Roles of African Diaspora Organizations as Development Actorse

Author:
Oliver Bakewell
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Today there is great interest in diasporas' role in development across Africa and much enthusiasm for identifying policies that can maximise their contribution. In this new DIIS Brief Oliver Bakewell, senior research officer at the International Migration Institute, University of Oxford, raises four questions that challenge uncritical enthusiasm for diasporas' increased involvement in development: 1) Who is in the diaspora? 2) Where is the diaspora? 3) How does diaspora engagement affect accountability? And 4) What ideas of development are being used?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa

6760. African Diaspora Organizations and Homeland Development: The case of Somali and Ghanaian associations in Denmark

Author:
Nauja Kleist
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Diaspora and migrant associations are often praised as new 'agents of change' for their contributions to development in their countries of origin. While much is known about Latin American hometown associations, there has been less focus on African diaspora associations. This DIIS Brief examines Somali and Ghanaian migrant associations in Denmark and their involvement in development. It shows how associations involve themselves on the basis of particular loyalties and emphasizes the importance of local partners and collaboration.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, and Diaspora
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Denmark, and Latin America