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502. The Ibrahim Case and U.S. Egypt Policy: Toward a More Robust Approach
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a glimmer of hope for Egyptian-American democracy advocate Saad ed-Din Ibrahim and five of his colleagues — sentenced to prison in May — Egypt's Court of Cassation last week set an October 17 hearing for a petition to suspend their sentences while the verdict is under appeal. This news, along with the arrival in Cairo of a new U.S. ambassador, should give the United States the opportunity to pursue the Ibrahim case more vigorously, despite the tension this may add to U.S.-Egyptian relations at a time of regional conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Cairo
503. Libya's Confident Defiance and ILSA
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The arraignment Friday of Brian Regan, an employee of the National Reconnaissance Office, on charges of espionage for Libya, once more places Colonel Mu'ammar Qaddafi's domain on the front pages. The secrets sold to Libya may have included information about American satellite over-flights which have in the past been able to provide early warnings about Libyan construction of facilities designed to produce or test weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles. In the last two years, Libya's acquisition of missile technology and its pursuit of chemical weapons have raised alarms. The espionage episode comes at a particularly inopportune time, as the CIA's most recent assessment concludes, "Tripoli has not given up its goal of establishing its own offensive [chemical weapon] program."
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
504. Special Policy Forum Report: Durban, the Human Rights Community, and the Middle East
- Author:
- Irwin Cotler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 7, 2001, Irwin Cotler, member of the Canadian parliament and co-chair of the Joint House-Senate Parliamentary Human Rights Group, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
505. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
506. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
507. Khatami's New Term and Ilsa's New Life
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- August 5 is an auspicious day for Iran, as it marks the inauguration of Mohammed Khatami's second four-year term as president of that country. It is also the day that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) would have expired, had its renewal not received an overwhelming vote last week by 96-2 in the Senate and 409-6 in the House. Khatami's cabinet choices, which he is expected to announce at his inaugural, will indicate much about where Iran is heading. Similarly, how the Bush administration administers a renewed ILSA will indicate much about the direction of U.S.-Iran policy.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries
508. Durban and the Middle East: Challenges for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Michael Colson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At the end of August, the United Nations is set to convene a "World Conference Against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance" (WCAR) in Durban, South Africa. But with less than one month to go, preparations for the conference are in shambles. Draft texts under consideration are replete with language equating Zionism with racism. Efforts to address anti-Semitism and the Holocaust have been perverted beyond recognition. Governments and nongovernmental organizations are demanding apologies and recognition of the right to reparations and compensation for slavery, the slave trade, colonialism, and other historical wrongs. These problems have prompted the Bush administration to warn that it may boycott the entire event.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, South Africa, and Arab Countries
509. Iraq Policy: Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries
510. Jordan's New Election Law: New Tactics, Old Strategy?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, Jordan's King Abdullah took two major decisions that will have significant implications for the kingdom's complicated and often troubled relations with its Palestinian and Islamist communities. Last Sunday, Abdullah approved a new election law; two days later, he issued a decree indefinitely postponing parliamentary elections. Taken together, these moves appear designed to bolster the stability of the kingdom, though it is still too early to assess whether the regime wins or loses from these parliamentary gambits.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Jordan
511. Special Policy Forum Report: Arab States vs. Islamists -- Past Record, Future Prospects
- Author:
- Ibrahim Karawan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 10, 2001, Professor Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The record of prediction about Islamism as a political force has been unimpressive. The failure is due to inadequacies in conceptualizing what is known, more than any shortage of raw data.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
512. Special Policy Forum Report: Khobar Towers Five Years Later -- Evaluating the Criminal Justice Approach to Counterterrorism
- Author:
- Ruth Wedgwood
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 25, the fifth anniversary of the Khobar Towers bombing, Dr. Ruth Wedgwood, professor of international law at the Yale Law School and Edward B. Burling Professor of International Law and Diplomacy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (2001-2002), addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
513. Special Policy Forum Report -- Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 27, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar and Carnegie Council fellow, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Rubin has just returned from nine months in northern Iraq, where he taught in the region's three universities. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues — such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country — remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the control of Saddam Hussein to the three northern governorates (Dahuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyyah), which are controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan — especially as all parts of Iraq fall under the same set of UN sanctions. The population in the north is approximately 3.5 million, many of whom are Kurdish, Turkoman, or Assyrian, and almost 1 million of whom are displaced persons expelled from Saddam's portion of Iraq. By refusing to grant visas to many journalists, Saddam's government consistently seeks to deny press coverage to northern Iraq. Those who do visit Baghdad-controlled Iraq are restricted to guided tours with Iraqi government minders and are prevented from traveling into the Kurdish-controlled north. Foreigners visiting the north, however, are able to move around freely without prearrangement.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
514. Popular Unrest in Algeria: A Significant Challenge to Stability
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Embattled by popular protests for more than two months, the Algerian government — in advance of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's historic July 12 White House visit — faces the most significant challenge to its authority in nearly a decade. Defying a recent government ban on protest marches, the Berber-led opposition has called for another demonstration on July 5, Algerian Independence Day. Meanwhile, tensions between the regime and Algeria's angry populace show little sign of abating, increasing prospects for a violent summer of discontent.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Algeria and North Africa
515. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
516. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
517. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
518. Special Policy Forum Report: The Iranian Presidential Poll: Does It Really Matter?
- Author:
- Geneive Abdo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In May, Geneive Abdo, a research scholar at the Middle East Institute of the Columbia University School of International Affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. To see her remarks in their entirety, The election of Muhammad Khatami as president of Iran four years ago has given rise to a perception that he is a maverick, a rare political leader in Iranian history who advocates values important to the Western world: political pluralism, freedom of expression, and human rights for all, including religious minorities. However, Khatami's unwillingness to confront the establishment became clear early in his presidency. After students staged five days of protest in July 1999 — the first true test of Khatami's courage — the president took a different turn. He decided at critical moments to side with the establishment, no matter how much he might alienate his own supporters.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
519. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries
520. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries