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702. Is Brazil Next?
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
703. The Looming Japanese Crisis
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
704. Support the Ex-Im Bank: It Has Work to Do!
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
705. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts – or No Change?
- Author:
- Marcus Miller
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
706. Science Technology — Internet Advances
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Advances in accessibility and security of the internet. A range of new technologies that should greatly increase the commercial utility of the internet will be ready for the marketplace in the next 18-24 months. However, their advocates will need to justify the investment required to deploy them. New internet-related technologies, by enhancing the ability of commercial concerns to interact in a more personal and acceptable style with a wider range of customers, have the potential to usher in a new phase of electronic commerce. This prospect should be enough to secure the investment needed to ensure their effective deployment.
- Topic:
- Education, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
707. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Chile
708. International — Nuclear Terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar on November 15 threatened widespread destruction in the United States. Mullah Omar's ambiguous threat of large-scale destruction and Osama bin Laden's explicit claim to possess nuclear weapons raise questions about the likelihood of nuclear terrorism and highlight the importance of protecting sources of highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Technical barriers need not be considered sufficient to prevent the use of nuclear devices by terrorist groups. Nuclear weapon standards are much lower for terrorist groups than for states, potentially making their production less challenging. Acquisition of sufficient qualities and quantities of fissile material is the most formidable obstacle to nuclear terrorist capabilities. Therefore, stringent guarding of access to such material is the best defence against nuclear terrorism.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Taliban
709. International — IMF Crisis Decisions
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IMF's major shareholders have shown little willingness to provide new funds to Argentina. In deferring further assistance, the United States and other G7 shareholders have set limits on the international financial community's role in resolving a major emerging market financial crisis. The slowing global economy could provide an early test of these limits as it exposes weaknesses in other emerging markets — particularly those with larger geopolitical profiles than Argentina. Argentina's predicament highlights the Fund's paradox in wanting, on the one hand, to facilitate orderly resolution of crises (and prevent calamitous social impacts) and, on the other hand, to encourage markets to appropriately price risk by proving that non-optimal outcomes are possible. The risk of such outcomes is the basis upon which investors demand higher premiums from emerging market borrowers.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Argentina
710. International — WTO Outlook
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece examines the prospects for the WTO Fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha beginning November 9. The central issue for the Qatar meeting is whether WTO members can agree to launch new negotiations, and in so doing restore confidence in the WTO itself. In the background are the September 11 terrorist attacks and the worsening global economic outlook, all of which simultaneously raise the stakes at the meeting and improve prospects for success. The outlook for the Qatar summit has improved, and agreement by WTO members in favour of wide-ranging trade negotiations is now on balance the most likely outcome. However, failure remains a real possibility, unless members can resolve remaining differences on agriculture, implementation of WTO agreements, environmental goals, US anti-dumping practices and pharmaceutical patents.
- Topic:
- Environment, Industrial Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Qatar
711. International — OPEC Quandary
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- OPEC President Chakib Kelil yesterday expressed confidence that the cartel can bring prices back to 25 dollars per barrel through production cuts implemented from January 1. Kelil's remarks follow a recent meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to secure non-OPEC support for a production cut at OPEC's November 14 meeting. The moves take place against a backdrop of falling oil prices and an outlook for even lower prices as global economic growth deteriorates and oil producers fail to implement earlier output cut decisions. Significant uncertainties cloud the oil market and make micro-management extremely difficult. OPEC's apparent failure to secure non-OPEC cooperation for production cuts undermines market credibility for OPEC cuts at its November meeting. Unless the cartel can develop a plausible response, there is a real possibility that it will face an oil price collapse reminiscent of 1997-99.
- Topic:
- Environment, Industrial Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
712. APEC — Shanghai Accord
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Shanghai and Asia
713. United States — Trade Adjustment Assistance
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece focuses on the performance of and prospects for Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) programmes. The number of employees and employers who have benefited from programmes designed to counter the effects of certain trade agreements has expanded dramatically during the past few years. Such trade adjustment assistance is likely to be included in future legislation implementing new WTO and other trade agreements, largely to garner support for further trade liberalisation.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
714. Brazil — IMF Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The real is stabilising against the dollar following the announcement of the latest draft agreement between Brazil and the IMF on August 3. The provision of additional resources by the Fund is designed to support the value of the real and prevent the Brazilian economy from sliding into recession.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
715. Uruguay — Defensive Economics
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In response to regional instability and two years of recession, Uruguay's government has taken measures to stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
716. Japan — Monetary Easing
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
717. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and North Ireland
718. Taking APEC Seriously
- Author:
- Edward J Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) has been a modestly useful government-to-government forum that has brought together nations from around the Pacific Rim since its inception in 1989. Sadly, hopes that APEC would provide a valuable arena in which to pursue the goal of open markets for trade and investment have fizzled. As the trade agenda has weakened, interest in APEC around the region has waned, and some nations have turned their attention to other regional or bilateral agendas.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
719. A Patent Policy Proposal for Global Diseases
- Author:
- Jean O Lanjouw
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We are in the midst of a dramatic extension of the global reach of the patent system. Until recently, in an effort to keep their prices low, many developing countries did not grant patents on new pharmaceutical products. Today, however, most countries have extended their patent laws to include pharmaceutical innovations, and in order to fulfill World Trade Organization membership requirements, the rest will soon follow.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Development, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
720. Open Doors
- Author:
- Paul Masson, Michael Pomerleano, and Robert E Litan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Foreign direct investment in financial firms in emerging markets surged in the 1990s, although not equally in all places. The main beneficiaries: Latin America and Central Europe, with Asia a distant third. This conference report summarizes findings on the impacts—mainly positive—of this significant inflow of funds and managerial and technical know-how, as well as recommendations for policies toward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the future. The main recommendation: countries with restrictions generally should relax them, even when their own financial systems are weak. At the same time, foreign entry gives rise to new policy challenges, supervisory and competitive, which emerging markets need to confront both unilaterally and with cooperation from source country governments.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe
721. Governing Multinationals: The Role Of Foreign Direct Liability
- Author:
- Halina Ward
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The business of global governance is set to become one of the key international policy issues of the twenty-first century. The governance of global business is one of the most difficult action points in this agenda. New issues are still emerging, not least among them a discussion on whether there is a need for tougher transnational regulation of multinational corporations. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications of one way of enforcing corporate environmental, social and human rights standards across borders: 'foreign direct liability'.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
722. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
723. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
724. Anti-Globalization Movements at the Cross-Roads
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Although it appears to be growing in strength and numbers, the anti-globalization protest movement is now at a cross-roads. The core of the anti-globalization movement, which is rooted in social justice and human rights, has been unable to control violent fringe groups. Furthermore, international economic agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF have been surprisingly responsive, expanding and accelerating their policies on debt relief and strengthening their focus on the mitigation of poverty. The protest movement thus faces the challenge of developing new instrumental goals for the next phase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Washington
725. The Right Role for the IMF in Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, John W. Sewell, and Kevin Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Horst Köhler faces immense challenges as the new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no challenge is more crucial than making sure the IMF plays the right role in developing countries. Too often, it is not playing that role now. The IMF's activities in the developing world have grown radically. Today, much of its work goes beyond macroeconomic issues and crisis prevention and management, into deeper structural issues. And as a major provider of long-term development finance, it is significantly involved in efforts to reduce poverty. But the IMF lacks expertise in the wide-ranging policy and institutional complexities of development and poverty reduction. Its expertise lies in macroeconomic policy and restoring stability amid financial crises. Macroeconomics is the same for poor and rich countries alike, as IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer has said. But much of what the IMF is involved in now is not macroeconomics. The Fund should focus on: short-term liquidity lending to all countries hit by macroeconomic crises; advising through policy dialogue; and collecting, assessing, and distributing information on countries with regard to macroeconomic policy and financial markets. While poor countries need access to the Fund's short-term lending and macroeconomic advice, the IMF should leave long-term development lending to the World Bank and to other lenders and donors expert in poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- United States
726. Reviewing U.S.-Nigeria Relations: New Links to Reinforce Democracy
- Author:
- Princeton Lyman and Linda Cotton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Emerging from 15 years of military rule, the Republic of Nigeria is struggling to build a stable, peaceful democratic nation from its 200 ethnic groups divided among 36 states. In May 1999, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected President-a repeat performance of his earlier role as catalyst for democratic change. In 1979, Obasanjo presided over the only transition to civilian rule until now. His democratic instincts won him three years in jail under former President Sani Abacha's brutally repressive military regime.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Nigeria
727. Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance
- Author:
- Iain Guest
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- For ten years, the international community has sent large, expensive missions to rebuild war-torn societies-without considering their impact on local civil society. At a time when civil society is seen as a pillar of development, this is an alarming omission.
- Topic:
- NATO, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo
728. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
729. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Beijing
730. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
731. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
732. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
733. United States — High-Tech Exports
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The White House has loosened export restrictions in a number of high-technology sectors, setting a trend which is likely to be followed by the next administration. Tight export controls on high-tech products have become an expensive luxury that the United States can no longer afford. The liberalisation of remaining controls is therefore set to continue, whatever the partisan composition of the next Congress and the next administration.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
734. International — WTO Reform
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- WTO members are unlikely to reach agreement on radical changes, at least in the short term. At most they may conclude an accord which reaffirms both the principle of consensus and the need for Green Room meetings, and which gives the director-general a role (possibly informal) in ensuring that efficiency is balanced by other considerations. However, an agreement on institutional changes will have little impact on prospects for launching a new trade round. Such prospects will continue to depend on whether members can develop an agenda that all believe will serve their national interests.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
735. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
736. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
737. International -- Problematic Piracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore
738. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
739. United Kingdom—Euro Issues
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
740. Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO). Assuming China concludes its bilateral negotiations with the European Union by June or July, entry is likely before the end of the year. The cornerstone principle of the World Trade Organization is that members provide each other unconditional Most Favored Nation trade status, now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) in U.S. trade law. Current U.S. law precludes granting PNTR to China; as a result President Clinton has asked Congress to amend the law. A negative vote would have no bearing on China's entry into the World Trade Organization, but it would mean that U.S. companies would not benefit from the most important commitments China has made to become a member. Gaining the full range of benefits is particularly important in light of the large and growing deficit the United States faces in its trade with China (Figure 1). A positive vote would give U.S. companies the same advantages that would accrue to companies from Europe, Japan, and all other WTO member states when China enters the World Trade Organization. It would also provide an important boost to China's leadership, that is taking significant economic and political risks in order to meet the demands of the international community for substantial additional economic reforms as a condition for its WTO membership. A positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. That may help place a floor on the broader bilateral relationship, which continues to face critical challenges on security issues, stemming largely from tensions between China and Taiwan, and on human rights issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia
741. WTO Report Card III: Globalization and Developing Countries
- Author:
- Aaron Lukas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The “anti-globalization coalition” that paraded through the streets of Seattle in November and stormed police barricades in Washington, D.C., in April contends that international trade and investment are “lose-lose” propositions. On the one hand, organized labor argues that low-wage workers in developing countries will gain employment at the expense of American workers. On the other hand, self-appointed advocates of the developing world claim that trade with and investment from Western countries lead only to exploitation and continued poverty abroad. Given that negative view of globalization, it is not surprising that anti-trade activists are calling to “shrink or sink” the World Trade Organization.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- America and Washington
742. China's Long March to a Market Economy
- Author:
- Mark A. Groombridge
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Congress is in the historic position of being able to help pro-reform leaders in China move their country in a market-oriented direction. A vote to grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status will bolster the position of those leaders in Beijing who are attempting to deepen and broaden the scope of China's two-decade experiment with economic reform. Granting PNTR and China's subsequent accession to the World Trade Organization will benefit, not only the United States and the world trading community, but most directly the citizens of China, millions of whom are still mired in abject poverty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, and Asia
743. Trade and Environment After Seattle
- Author:
- Duncan Brack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The interrelationship between international trade and environmental protection is becoming increasingly important – and controversial. The volume of world trade in goods topped $5 trillion for the first time in 1996, having grown at an average rate of about 8% a year since the signing of the Marrakesh agreement in 1994 which marked the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The set of agreements administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO), centred around the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and covering areas such as agriculture, textiles, services, intellectual property, technical barriers to trade and health standards, represents a significant extension in scope compared with its pre-Uruguay Round version. In turn this means that international trade regulation increasingly impinges on other areas of public policy.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
744. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism
- Author:
- Chen Yixin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
745. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of December 16, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.9 billion in October, from $24.2 billion (revised) in September, as exports decreased and imports increased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
746. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of November 18, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.4 billion in September, from $23.5 billion (revised) in August, as exports decreased and imports increased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
747. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of October 20, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $24.1 billion in August, from $24.9 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased more than imports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
748. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of September 21, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.2 billion in July, from $24.6 billion (revised) in June, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
749. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of August 19, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.6 billion in June, from $21.2 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
750. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of July 20, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $21.3 billion in May, from $18.6 billion (revised) in April, as imports increased and exports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
751. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of June 17, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services was $18.9 billion in April, virtually unchanged from March (revised), as exports and imports increased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
752. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of April 20, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $19.4 billion in February, from $16.8 billion (revised) in January as imports increased and exports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
753. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of March 18, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $17.0 billion in January, from $14.1 billion (revised) in December as imports increased and exports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
754. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 21, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $15.5 billion in November, from $13.6 billion (revised) in October as imports increased and exports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
755. Balance on Current Account - As of December 14, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
756. Balance on Current Account - As of September 14, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
757. Balance on Current Account - As of June 17, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
758. Balance on Current Account - As of March 11, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
759. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: New Investment in 1998
- Author:
- Mahnaz Fahim-Nader
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- Last year,outlays by foreign direct investors to acquire or establish businesses in the United States surged to $201.0 billion, 2 1/2 times the previous record of $79.9 billion set in 1996 and almost triple the 1997 level of $69.7 billion ( table 1 and chart 1). The 1998 outlays were boosted by two exceptionally large acquisitions, each of which significantly exceeded the size of any previous single investment. However, even without these two investments, outlays were still about 40 percent higher than those in 1996.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
760. Netanyahu's Economic Record
- Author:
- Eliyahu Kanovsky
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Blaming "the other guy" for current problems is a human frailty, but there are cases where there is substance to the allegation. I believe that the widespread criticism of Netanyahu's economic record lacks, at the very least, a sense of fairness and balance. On the economic front, the Netanyahu administration is faulted for the slow rate of economic growth since 1997, and, as a consequence, the rising rate of unemployment. The opposition contends that in 1996, Netanyahu inherited from the previous administration (Rabin-Peres) a thriving, prosperous, and stable economy, and then proceeded to "mess things up." What are the facts and figures? What is the larger picture?
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
761. Open Markets Matter: The Benefits of Trade and Investment Liberalisation
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Never before have so many countries at such different levels of development been involved in so much activity aimed at progressively rolling back obstacles to freer trade and investment. Yet, paradoxically, at no time during the post-war period has the prospect of further liberalisation generated so much public anxiety, not least within those countries that built much of their prosperity on a liberal trade and investment order.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Sovereignty
762. Money Laundering
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- The goal of a large number of criminal acts is to generate a profit for the individual or group that carries out the act. Money laundering is the processing of these criminal proceeds to disguise their illegal origin. This process is of critical importance, as it enables the criminal to enjoy these profits without jeopardising their source.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
763. OECD Economic Projections
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Twice a year, in June and December, the OECD publishes its Economic Outlook (EO), which contains projections for a number of key economic variables over a two to two and a half-year horizon.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
764. Start the Trade and Labor Dialogue
- Author:
- David Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- The debate over trade and labor standards is one of the most divisive in relations between industrial and developing countries. Concern about the impact of trade on workers is undermining support for trade liberalization worldwide.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
765. ODC Viewpoint - Don't Make Debt Relief A Burden
- Author:
- Kevin M. Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Kevin M. Morrison September 1999 Overseas Development Council The debate over debt relief has reached a critical phase. The pressing need to reduce the crushing debt of the highly indebted poorest countries (HIPCs) is no longer in doubt, due to the efforts of advocates in developing and developed countries. At the Cologne G7 Summit in June, the leaders of the richest countries decided to speed up and enlarge their previous debt relief initiative. Now the issue is: How are donors going to pay the bill? The G7 is exploring various means to finance the expanded initiative, and they hope to announce the plan this month during the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).But there is concern that, when all is said and done, financing the initiative will cut down other resources for developing countries. Key development assistance programs might be reduced, as might developing countries' earnings from gold exports if the IMF sells some of its gold reserves to finance the relief and the price of gold drops. The point of debt relief is, as the leaders said in Cologne, "to provide a greater focus on poverty reduction by releasing resources for investment in health, education, and social needs." Thus, to provide debt relief and then reduce other resources for development makes little sense.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
766. The New Development Cooperation Paradigm
- Author:
- Catherine Gwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Catherine Gwin June 1999 Overseas Development Council Fifteen years after the end of the Cold War, a new development cooperation paradigm is emerging. Spurred by global economic and political change, development cooperation is undergoing a fundamental redesign on three levels: 1) rationale and purpose, 2) strategy, and 3) provision of assistance.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
767. ODC Viewpoint - U.S. Trade Policy: Misreading the Developing World
- Author:
- David Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- U.S. trade leadership has suffered from a contentious policy debate that has left President Clinton without new fast-track trade negotiating authority since 1994. Disagreement over the impact of commerce with developing countries on jobs and the environment is at the heart of the trade quarrel, but that quarrel misreads what is happening in developing economies and what is achievable in negotiations with them.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
768. The U.S. Perspective on Globalization
- Author:
- Stuart Eizenstat
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- The Overseas Development Council was prescient in calling for an international dialogue on globalization last year. It is a particularly important time for a dialogue on the relationship between globalization and development, given new concerns raised by the global financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
769. Environment and Trade: A Framework for Moving Forward in the WTO
- Author:
- Gary P. Sampson
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Environmentalists and trade advocates have clashed frequently in recent years. Environmentalists argue that international trade rules restrict the legitimate use of trade measures to enforce environmental standards internationally and undermine environmental standards at home. Trade officials argue that trade measures are not the appropriate tools to dal with environmental problems, no is the World Trade Organization (WTO) the appropriate institution. They contend that environmentalists need to put their own house in order rather than resort to trade measures to achieve their objectives.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
770. Russia—Caucasian Consequences
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Caucasus
771. EU—Membership Indecision
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
772. Russia—Debt Rollover
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Moscow
773. The International Financial Architecture
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
774. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps
- Author:
- John Chown
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
775. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
776. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
777. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
778. Global Banking
- Author:
- Tom Barry, Martha Honey, and Christian Weller
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- International banking activities frequently result in financial instability and serious economic downturns as financial markets become more open and deregulated. Competition from multinational banks has reduced the availability of credit to small- and medium-sized enterprises, to low- and middle-income consumers, and to farmers. While economies experience financial instabilities and declining credit, governments are losing the means to protect their domestic markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
779. Balance on Current Account - As of December 9, 1998
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
780. U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: 1994 Benchmark Survey, Final Results
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The 1994 Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad was conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to obtain complete and accurate data on U.S. direct investment abroad in 1994. Reporting in the survey was mandatory under the International Investment and Trade in Services Survey Act.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
781. U.S. Multinational Companies Operations in 1996
- Author:
- Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The combined domestic and foreign operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's) continued to grow at a relatively fast pace in 1996. The growth in three key measures of MNC operations–gross product, employment, and capital expenditures — exceeded the average annual growth rate for 1989–95. According to preliminary estimates from the annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority–owned foreign affiliates combined) increased 7 percent, compared with a similar increase in 1995 and an average annual increase of 5 percent in 1989–95; employment increased 2 percent, compared with a 1–percent increase in 1995 and negligible growth in 1989–95; capital expenditures increased 5 percent, compared with a 7–percent increase in 1995 and an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1989–95.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
782. The International Investment Position of the United States in 1997
- Author:
- Russel B. Scholl
- Publication Date:
- 07-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The net international investment position of the United States—U.S. assets abroad less foreign assets in the United States—at yearend 1997 was a negative $1,223.6 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was a negative $1,322.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the net positions were more negative in 1997 than they were in 1996.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
783. The Domestic Orientation of Production and Sales by U.S. Manufacturing Affiliates of Foreign Companies
- Author:
- William J. Zeile
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- Since the surge in foreign direct investment in the United States in the late 1980's, much attention has focused on the role of foreign-owned firms in the U.S. economy, particularly in manufacturing. A question that is frequently posed concerns the degree to which U.S. affiliates of foreign companies are integrated into the U.S. economy through their sourcing behavior and value-added activity. A related question is whether U.S. manufacturing affiliates in comparison with domestically owned firms are more oriented toward producing for the U.S. market or for their home-country and other foreign markets.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
784. Maintaining prosperity in an ageing society
- Publication Date:
- 06-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Population ageing in OECD countries over the coming decades could threaten future growth in prosperity. Governments should take action now across a broad range of economic, financial and social policies to ensure the foundations for maintaining prosperity in an ageing society. While reforms are already underway, much deeper reforms will be needed to meet the challenges of population ageing.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
785. The 1998 Per Jacobsson Lecture: Managing the International Economy in an Age of Globalisation
- Author:
- Peter D. Sutherland
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Good afternoon. Thank you, Sir Jeremy, for that kind introduction. I am honored, not merely to have been selected to deliver this year's Per Jacobsson lecture, but by the presence of so many distinguished guests. I am also delighted that two previous Per Jacobsson lecturers could be here this afternoon, and I would like to recognize them: Jacques de Larosiere, the former Managing Director of the IMF and more recently the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Joseph Yam, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
786. Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF
- Author:
- Anna J. Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Mexico
787. Renewable Energy Investment and Technology Transfer in Asia
- Author:
- Tim Forsyth
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- This workshop was arranged by the RIIA under the sponsorship of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) of Japan to explore ways of increasing international investment in renewable energy technology in Asia. Enhancing renewable energy investment is clearly relevant to global strategies to mitigate climate change. However, the two debates on climate change policy and renewable energy investment have largely remained separate, and characterized by tendencies to discuss large-scale global flows of energy and investment on the one hand, and local development-oriented practice on the other. The workshop attempted to integrate these two debates, and therefore form part of a growing body of knowledge to inform the current climate change negotiations with practical options available to small and large businesses. The workshop had three main aims: to identify the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for international renewable energy investment; to define technology transfer and identify how it may be increased for renewable energy in South and Southeast Asia; to assess what public and private forms of finance could be sought to ensure the success of renewable energy businesses in South and Southeast Asia. The workshop was attended by some 30 industrialists, financiers and renewable energy specialists from around the world. This paper is a summary of the proceedings. In order to encourage frank exchange, the workshop was held under Chatham House Rule of confidentiality and anonymity, so individual speakers are not named.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
788. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1992
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The data in this volume cover the operations of establishments of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies in 1992. A U.S. affiliate is a U.S. business enterprise that is owned 10 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by a foreign person. The volume is divided into two parts. The first covers all industries and presents data on the number, employment, payroll, and shipments or sales of the establishments of U.S. affiliates (hereinafter referred to as “foreign-owned establishments”); it includes data by detailed industry for nonmanufacturing and totals for manufacturing as a whole. The second part presents these data items by detailed industry within manufacturing as well as additional items for manufacturing establishments, including value added, total compensation of employees, employee benefits, hourly wage rates of production workers, and expenditures for new plant and equipment. In addition to data by industry, both parts present data by State and by country of owner. 2 The data for this volume were obtained from the Census Bureau's 1992 Economic Censuses and Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). 3 They are the result of a project that links Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) enterprise, or company, data on foreign direct investment in the United States with Bureau of the Census establishment data for all U.S. businesses. 4 The project was authorized by the Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990. This volume updates data for foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987 and data for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988–91 published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for Manufacturing, in separate volumes for each year (see “Data Availability”). To aid comparisons of the data in this publication with those in the publications for earlier years, tables A and B provide cross-references between the table numbers used in this publication and those used in the publications for 1987–91. Analyses of the data from the link are available in three SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS articles: “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987,” in the October 1992 issue of the SURVEY, gives an overview of the 1987 data and an analysis of the attributes of industries with substantial foreign direct investment activity; “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1994/0194iid.pdf) in the January 1994 SURVEY, presents a profile of foreign-owned manufacturing establishments using the 1990 data; and “Differences in Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments by Country of Owner,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1996/0396iid.pdf) in the March 1996 SURVEY, uses the 1991 data to examine whether industry-mix and operating characteristics of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments vary by country of owner. In addition, an article that will analyze the 1992 data from a regional perspective is planned. The establishment data from the link project complement BEA's enterprise data for U.S. affiliates. BEA's enterprise data are needed for analyzing the overall significance of, and trends in, direct investment and for compiling the U.S. international transactions accounts, the international investment position of the United States, and the U.S. national income and product accounts. The data on positions and transactions between U.S. affiliates and their foreign parents used in compiling the national and international accounts exist only at the enterprise level. Analyses of some topics, such as profits and taxes, are meaningful only at that level. Furthermore, balance sheets and income statements containing the critical, nonduplicative financial and operating data needed for examining these topics exist only at the enterprise level. The establishment data facilitate analyses of the activities and importance of foreign-owned U.S. companies in specific, detailed industries. Each establishment of an enterprise can be classified separately in the establishment data, while BEA's enterprise data classify the entire enterprise, however diversified, in one industry. Furthermore, the level of industry classification can be much more detailed for individual establishments than is appropriate for consolidated enterprises, whose operations may span many narrowly defined industries. As a result, foreign-owned establishments can be classified into over 800 industries, while BEA's foreign-owned enterprises can be classified into only 135 industries. The tables in each part of this volume are organized into three groups. The first group gives an overview of the data by industry, country, and State. The second group presents detailed industry tables for individual States. The third group presents detailed industry tables for selected major investor countries. Some of the tables in each part show totals for key items of all U.S. establishments and the share of the all-U.S. totals accounted for by foreign-owned establishments.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
789. U.S. Multinational Companies: Operations in 1995
- Author:
- Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's)grew more rapidly in 1995 than they had grown, on average, since 1982—the year in which this annual series began. According to preliminary estimates from BEA's annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad for 1995, worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority-owned foreign affiliates combined) grew 6 percent, compared with an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1982–94; employment increased 1 percent, compared with negligible growth; and capital expenditures increased 8 percent, compared with a 2-percent increase (table 1).
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
790. The International Investment Position of the United States in 1996
- Author:
- Russel B. Scholl
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The net international investment position of the United States at yearend 1996 was -$870.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was -$831.3 billion with direct investment valued at the current stock-market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the value of foreign assets in the United States continued to exceed the value of U.S. assets abroad. However, for the direct investment component of the position valued on either basis, U.S. assets abroad continue to exceed foreign assets in the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States