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702. Is Brazil Next?
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
703. The Looming Japanese Crisis
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
704. Support the Ex-Im Bank: It Has Work to Do!
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
705. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts – or No Change?
- Author:
- Marcus Miller
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
706. Science Technology — Internet Advances
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Advances in accessibility and security of the internet. A range of new technologies that should greatly increase the commercial utility of the internet will be ready for the marketplace in the next 18-24 months. However, their advocates will need to justify the investment required to deploy them. New internet-related technologies, by enhancing the ability of commercial concerns to interact in a more personal and acceptable style with a wider range of customers, have the potential to usher in a new phase of electronic commerce. This prospect should be enough to secure the investment needed to ensure their effective deployment.
- Topic:
- Education, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
707. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Chile
708. International — Nuclear Terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar on November 15 threatened widespread destruction in the United States. Mullah Omar's ambiguous threat of large-scale destruction and Osama bin Laden's explicit claim to possess nuclear weapons raise questions about the likelihood of nuclear terrorism and highlight the importance of protecting sources of highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Technical barriers need not be considered sufficient to prevent the use of nuclear devices by terrorist groups. Nuclear weapon standards are much lower for terrorist groups than for states, potentially making their production less challenging. Acquisition of sufficient qualities and quantities of fissile material is the most formidable obstacle to nuclear terrorist capabilities. Therefore, stringent guarding of access to such material is the best defence against nuclear terrorism.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Taliban
709. International — IMF Crisis Decisions
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IMF's major shareholders have shown little willingness to provide new funds to Argentina. In deferring further assistance, the United States and other G7 shareholders have set limits on the international financial community's role in resolving a major emerging market financial crisis. The slowing global economy could provide an early test of these limits as it exposes weaknesses in other emerging markets — particularly those with larger geopolitical profiles than Argentina. Argentina's predicament highlights the Fund's paradox in wanting, on the one hand, to facilitate orderly resolution of crises (and prevent calamitous social impacts) and, on the other hand, to encourage markets to appropriately price risk by proving that non-optimal outcomes are possible. The risk of such outcomes is the basis upon which investors demand higher premiums from emerging market borrowers.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Argentina
710. International — WTO Outlook
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece examines the prospects for the WTO Fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha beginning November 9. The central issue for the Qatar meeting is whether WTO members can agree to launch new negotiations, and in so doing restore confidence in the WTO itself. In the background are the September 11 terrorist attacks and the worsening global economic outlook, all of which simultaneously raise the stakes at the meeting and improve prospects for success. The outlook for the Qatar summit has improved, and agreement by WTO members in favour of wide-ranging trade negotiations is now on balance the most likely outcome. However, failure remains a real possibility, unless members can resolve remaining differences on agriculture, implementation of WTO agreements, environmental goals, US anti-dumping practices and pharmaceutical patents.
- Topic:
- Environment, Industrial Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Qatar
711. International — OPEC Quandary
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- OPEC President Chakib Kelil yesterday expressed confidence that the cartel can bring prices back to 25 dollars per barrel through production cuts implemented from January 1. Kelil's remarks follow a recent meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to secure non-OPEC support for a production cut at OPEC's November 14 meeting. The moves take place against a backdrop of falling oil prices and an outlook for even lower prices as global economic growth deteriorates and oil producers fail to implement earlier output cut decisions. Significant uncertainties cloud the oil market and make micro-management extremely difficult. OPEC's apparent failure to secure non-OPEC cooperation for production cuts undermines market credibility for OPEC cuts at its November meeting. Unless the cartel can develop a plausible response, there is a real possibility that it will face an oil price collapse reminiscent of 1997-99.
- Topic:
- Environment, Industrial Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
712. APEC — Shanghai Accord
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Shanghai and Asia
713. United States — Trade Adjustment Assistance
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece focuses on the performance of and prospects for Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) programmes. The number of employees and employers who have benefited from programmes designed to counter the effects of certain trade agreements has expanded dramatically during the past few years. Such trade adjustment assistance is likely to be included in future legislation implementing new WTO and other trade agreements, largely to garner support for further trade liberalisation.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
714. Brazil — IMF Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The real is stabilising against the dollar following the announcement of the latest draft agreement between Brazil and the IMF on August 3. The provision of additional resources by the Fund is designed to support the value of the real and prevent the Brazilian economy from sliding into recession.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
715. Uruguay — Defensive Economics
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In response to regional instability and two years of recession, Uruguay's government has taken measures to stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
716. Japan — Monetary Easing
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
717. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and North Ireland
718. Taking APEC Seriously
- Author:
- Edward J Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) has been a modestly useful government-to-government forum that has brought together nations from around the Pacific Rim since its inception in 1989. Sadly, hopes that APEC would provide a valuable arena in which to pursue the goal of open markets for trade and investment have fizzled. As the trade agenda has weakened, interest in APEC around the region has waned, and some nations have turned their attention to other regional or bilateral agendas.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
719. A Patent Policy Proposal for Global Diseases
- Author:
- Jean O Lanjouw
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We are in the midst of a dramatic extension of the global reach of the patent system. Until recently, in an effort to keep their prices low, many developing countries did not grant patents on new pharmaceutical products. Today, however, most countries have extended their patent laws to include pharmaceutical innovations, and in order to fulfill World Trade Organization membership requirements, the rest will soon follow.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Development, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
720. Open Doors
- Author:
- Paul Masson, Michael Pomerleano, and Robert E Litan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Foreign direct investment in financial firms in emerging markets surged in the 1990s, although not equally in all places. The main beneficiaries: Latin America and Central Europe, with Asia a distant third. This conference report summarizes findings on the impacts—mainly positive—of this significant inflow of funds and managerial and technical know-how, as well as recommendations for policies toward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the future. The main recommendation: countries with restrictions generally should relax them, even when their own financial systems are weak. At the same time, foreign entry gives rise to new policy challenges, supervisory and competitive, which emerging markets need to confront both unilaterally and with cooperation from source country governments.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe
721. Governing Multinationals: The Role Of Foreign Direct Liability
- Author:
- Halina Ward
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The business of global governance is set to become one of the key international policy issues of the twenty-first century. The governance of global business is one of the most difficult action points in this agenda. New issues are still emerging, not least among them a discussion on whether there is a need for tougher transnational regulation of multinational corporations. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications of one way of enforcing corporate environmental, social and human rights standards across borders: 'foreign direct liability'.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
722. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
723. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
724. Anti-Globalization Movements at the Cross-Roads
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Although it appears to be growing in strength and numbers, the anti-globalization protest movement is now at a cross-roads. The core of the anti-globalization movement, which is rooted in social justice and human rights, has been unable to control violent fringe groups. Furthermore, international economic agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF have been surprisingly responsive, expanding and accelerating their policies on debt relief and strengthening their focus on the mitigation of poverty. The protest movement thus faces the challenge of developing new instrumental goals for the next phase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Washington
725. The Right Role for the IMF in Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, John W. Sewell, and Kevin Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Horst Köhler faces immense challenges as the new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no challenge is more crucial than making sure the IMF plays the right role in developing countries. Too often, it is not playing that role now. The IMF's activities in the developing world have grown radically. Today, much of its work goes beyond macroeconomic issues and crisis prevention and management, into deeper structural issues. And as a major provider of long-term development finance, it is significantly involved in efforts to reduce poverty. But the IMF lacks expertise in the wide-ranging policy and institutional complexities of development and poverty reduction. Its expertise lies in macroeconomic policy and restoring stability amid financial crises. Macroeconomics is the same for poor and rich countries alike, as IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer has said. But much of what the IMF is involved in now is not macroeconomics. The Fund should focus on: short-term liquidity lending to all countries hit by macroeconomic crises; advising through policy dialogue; and collecting, assessing, and distributing information on countries with regard to macroeconomic policy and financial markets. While poor countries need access to the Fund's short-term lending and macroeconomic advice, the IMF should leave long-term development lending to the World Bank and to other lenders and donors expert in poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- United States
726. Reviewing U.S.-Nigeria Relations: New Links to Reinforce Democracy
- Author:
- Princeton Lyman and Linda Cotton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Emerging from 15 years of military rule, the Republic of Nigeria is struggling to build a stable, peaceful democratic nation from its 200 ethnic groups divided among 36 states. In May 1999, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected President-a repeat performance of his earlier role as catalyst for democratic change. In 1979, Obasanjo presided over the only transition to civilian rule until now. His democratic instincts won him three years in jail under former President Sani Abacha's brutally repressive military regime.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Nigeria
727. Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance
- Author:
- Iain Guest
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- For ten years, the international community has sent large, expensive missions to rebuild war-torn societies-without considering their impact on local civil society. At a time when civil society is seen as a pillar of development, this is an alarming omission.
- Topic:
- NATO, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo
728. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
729. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Beijing
730. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
731. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
732. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
733. United States — High-Tech Exports
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The White House has loosened export restrictions in a number of high-technology sectors, setting a trend which is likely to be followed by the next administration. Tight export controls on high-tech products have become an expensive luxury that the United States can no longer afford. The liberalisation of remaining controls is therefore set to continue, whatever the partisan composition of the next Congress and the next administration.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
734. International — WTO Reform
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- WTO members are unlikely to reach agreement on radical changes, at least in the short term. At most they may conclude an accord which reaffirms both the principle of consensus and the need for Green Room meetings, and which gives the director-general a role (possibly informal) in ensuring that efficiency is balanced by other considerations. However, an agreement on institutional changes will have little impact on prospects for launching a new trade round. Such prospects will continue to depend on whether members can develop an agenda that all believe will serve their national interests.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
735. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
736. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
737. International -- Problematic Piracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore
738. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
739. United Kingdom—Euro Issues
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
740. Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO). Assuming China concludes its bilateral negotiations with the European Union by June or July, entry is likely before the end of the year. The cornerstone principle of the World Trade Organization is that members provide each other unconditional Most Favored Nation trade status, now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) in U.S. trade law. Current U.S. law precludes granting PNTR to China; as a result President Clinton has asked Congress to amend the law. A negative vote would have no bearing on China's entry into the World Trade Organization, but it would mean that U.S. companies would not benefit from the most important commitments China has made to become a member. Gaining the full range of benefits is particularly important in light of the large and growing deficit the United States faces in its trade with China (Figure 1). A positive vote would give U.S. companies the same advantages that would accrue to companies from Europe, Japan, and all other WTO member states when China enters the World Trade Organization. It would also provide an important boost to China's leadership, that is taking significant economic and political risks in order to meet the demands of the international community for substantial additional economic reforms as a condition for its WTO membership. A positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. That may help place a floor on the broader bilateral relationship, which continues to face critical challenges on security issues, stemming largely from tensions between China and Taiwan, and on human rights issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia
741. WTO Report Card III: Globalization and Developing Countries
- Author:
- Aaron Lukas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The “anti-globalization coalition” that paraded through the streets of Seattle in November and stormed police barricades in Washington, D.C., in April contends that international trade and investment are “lose-lose” propositions. On the one hand, organized labor argues that low-wage workers in developing countries will gain employment at the expense of American workers. On the other hand, self-appointed advocates of the developing world claim that trade with and investment from Western countries lead only to exploitation and continued poverty abroad. Given that negative view of globalization, it is not surprising that anti-trade activists are calling to “shrink or sink” the World Trade Organization.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- America and Washington
742. China's Long March to a Market Economy
- Author:
- Mark A. Groombridge
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Congress is in the historic position of being able to help pro-reform leaders in China move their country in a market-oriented direction. A vote to grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status will bolster the position of those leaders in Beijing who are attempting to deepen and broaden the scope of China's two-decade experiment with economic reform. Granting PNTR and China's subsequent accession to the World Trade Organization will benefit, not only the United States and the world trading community, but most directly the citizens of China, millions of whom are still mired in abject poverty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, and Asia
743. Trade and Environment After Seattle
- Author:
- Duncan Brack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The interrelationship between international trade and environmental protection is becoming increasingly important – and controversial. The volume of world trade in goods topped $5 trillion for the first time in 1996, having grown at an average rate of about 8% a year since the signing of the Marrakesh agreement in 1994 which marked the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The set of agreements administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO), centred around the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and covering areas such as agriculture, textiles, services, intellectual property, technical barriers to trade and health standards, represents a significant extension in scope compared with its pre-Uruguay Round version. In turn this means that international trade regulation increasingly impinges on other areas of public policy.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
744. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism
- Author:
- Chen Yixin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
745. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of December 16, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.9 billion in October, from $24.2 billion (revised) in September, as exports decreased and imports increased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
746. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of November 18, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.4 billion in September, from $23.5 billion (revised) in August, as exports decreased and imports increased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
747. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of October 20, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $24.1 billion in August, from $24.9 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased more than imports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
748. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of September 21, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.2 billion in July, from $24.6 billion (revised) in June, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
749. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of August 19, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.6 billion in June, from $21.2 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
750. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of July 20, 1999
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $21.3 billion in May, from $18.6 billion (revised) in April, as imports increased and exports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States