Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: International Relations

151. Defence industrial policy in Belgium and the Netherlands

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium and the Netherlands work closely together in defence. Both countries for example have a combined naval command; they also have single schools and maintenance facilities for their M-frigates and minehunters. Yet, the Belgian and Dutch defence industries are quite different. This report, issued by the Armaments Industry European Research Group (Ares), compares the defence industrial policies of both countries. Clingendael senior research fellow Dick Zandee has contributed to the report by writing the sections on the Netherlands.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Belgium and Netherlands

152. Major developments in the US and China and US-China Relations Amidst Turmoil in the International Order (US-China Project)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

153. Sub-project I. Domestic factors influencing US foreign policy (US Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: With President Obama’s second term coming to an end, 2016 will mark a major turning point for US politics and foreign policy. Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate since the 2014 mid-term elections have made the Obama administration a “lame duck” but, with no concerns about re-election, the administration is now using its “free hand” to issue executive orders and exercise presidential authority for the sake of “legacy building” through, say, revisions to the Immigration Act and normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

154. Sub-project II: China’s Domestic Situation and Foreign Policy (China Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Among the most significant variables defining trends in the international order and the international environment surrounding Japan are domestic circumstances in China and its foreign policies prescribed by them. China ranks highest among the emerging powers that have rapidly increased their presence within the international community over a short period and is, from Japan’s standpoint, simultaneously a real threat to Japanese security in the East China Sea and Japan’s largest trading partner.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

155. A Few Words on Real Russia

Author:: Yan Vaslavsky
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin delivered his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly at St. George’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace on December 1. The state-of-the- nation address is regarded as a major speech over a 12-month period. It usually recounts the progress and outlines national priorities and the development agenda for the near future. This format is not unique1, but it tends to command attention of the general public at home and abroad as well as of parliamentarians to whom, judging by its very name, it is addressed.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

156. The Russian Gambit In Syria

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Syria

157. Israel’s conflicting interests in the Syrian War

Author:: Halle Malmvig
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Senior researcher Helle Malmvig explores Israels’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. Israel’s activities in Syria have not drawn much attention due to Israel’s official policy of neutrality. Yet, over the last couple of years, Israel has stepped up its operations in Syria, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets and providing quiet assistance to the rebels.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Israel and Syria

158. The Catch-22 in Nineveh: The Regional Security Complex Dynamics between Turkey and Iran

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek and Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This paper argues that the future political stability of Nineveh depends on a two-level normalisation. A potential agreement between competing local actors, such as Baghdad and Erbil, is not the only necessary condition to stabilise the area. It also requires that Turkey and Iran decide to desecuritise Nineveh to the extent that it ceases to play the role of a buffer zone in the Middle East regional security complex. This argument is underpinned by the close examination of Turkey’s and Iran’s involvement together with their respective local allies in Nineveh in the post-2014 period. Developments referring to the cases of Bashiqa, Shingal, Tal Afar, as well as activities in favour or against Mosul leaders’ post-Islamic State (IS) vision illustrate that Nineveh’s securitisation has transcended Iraq’s borders. All in all, Turkey and Iran are vying for greater influence in Nineveh, or at least attempting to ensure that it will not become a satellite area of a competing power. Partly through their direct diplomatic and military engagement, but most importantly through their military and economic support to their local allies, the two regional powers pursue their security and diplomatic goals. At the same time, their involvement in the area has compounded the friction between local actors. Accordingly, the paper argues that in order to avoid greater polarisation in Nineveh and prepare the ground for constructive negotiations in the post-IS environment, Turkey and Iran should work on institutionalising their relationship beyond trade. Working together on issues of security between them, but also specifically in Nineveh, would improve trust and confidence in their relationship and help overcome the catch-22.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Turkey

159. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?

Author:: Zachary Gallant
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

160. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue

Author:: Hawraman Ali
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Kurdistan

161. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Turkey

162. State-building in a Fragmented Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:: Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The roadmap to independence starts from home and ends at home. A fragmented and unstable Kurdistan Region is neither good for the stability of the Kurdistan Region nor for Iraq or the rest of the Middle East. Institutionalisation of national unity and promotion of good governance are a key priority in every country of the Middle East, and even more so for an emerging one like the Kurdistan Region.
Topic:: International Relations and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East

163. The Battle for Mosul; Pre and Post ‘Liberation’ Planning

Author:: Dylan O’Driscoll
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: There is the opportunity for the rebirth of Mosul and Nineveh, as well as for Iraq, but without a valid plan in place for the liberation of Mosul, that includes the formation of political agreements and huge post-conflict efforts of reconstruction, reconciliation and de-radicalisation, it will be a stillbirth rather than the beginning of a new and promising life.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

164. Averting an Economic Meltdown in the KRI: Aligning Political Objectives with Economic Necessities

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This report is a contribution to the public debate in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) about crucial aspects of the current economic crisis and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) immediate response. In addition, it looks at the impact of four different policy options, such as a.) independence b.) rapprochement with Baghdad c.) macro-financing from International Stakeholders and d.) macro-financial assistance from Regional Stakeholders, may have in averting an economic meltdown in the short-term, on the assumption that the oil prices will remain suppressed for the foreseeable future. This report argues that it is only when the economic meltdown is averted in the short-term that the KRG will be able to proceed with deep structural reforms in the public sector and start working on the diversification of the economy.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

165. Time for a Radical Rethink. Full report on the MERI Economic Forum 2016

Author:: MERI
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The MERI Economic Forum 2016 is the first of its kind to be held in Iraq or the Kurdistan Region. Iraq and the KRI, at the time of the forum in April 2016, were in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis and searching for ways to move away from the rentier-state economic model to restructure and grow the economy.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

166. Heavy Metal Diplomacy: Russia’s Political Use of its Military in Europe since 2014

Author:: Mark Galeotti
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Since 2014, Russia has mounted an extensive, aggressive, and multi-platform attempt to use its military and the threat of force as instruments of coercive diplomacy, intended to divide, distract, and deter Europe from challenging Russia’s activities in its immediate neighbourhood. The main elements are threats of potential military action, wargames which pointedly simulate such operations, the deployment of combat units in ways which also convey a political message, and intrusions close to and into European airspace, waters and even territory. The actual impact of these policies is varied, sometimes counter-productive, and they depend on coordination with other means of diplomacy and influence. But they have nonetheless contributed to a fragmentation of unity within both NATO and the European Union. ‘Heavy metal diplomacy’ is likely to continue for the immediate future. This requires a sharper sense on the part of the EU and its member states of what is a truly military move and what is political, a refusal to rise to the bait, and yet a display of convincing unity and cross-platform capacity when a response is required.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia

167. EU differentiation and the push for peace in Israel-Palestine

Author:: Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The adoption and streamlining of differentiation measures represents a unique and effective European contribution towards Israeli-Palestinian peace at a time in which the Middle East Peace Process in its current configuration has failed. Differentiation disincentives Israel’s illegal acquisition of territory and re-affirms the territorial basis of a two-state solution. It also feeds an Israeli debate over national priorities by framing the negative consequences that Israel will face in its bilateral relations if it continues its annexation of Palestinian territory. Despite Israeli efforts to erode consensus within the EU, differentiation continues to receive broad support among member states. EU officials must allow the correct, full, and effective implementation of existing legislation and policy positions relating to Israeli settlements European entities engaging in financial activity with Israeli settlements – even indirectly – could face serious legal, financial and reputational risks. The EU and its member states should offer more advice on the consequences of doing business with settlement-related entities.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Israel

168. Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

169. A Canadian Agenda for the USA: Obama and Beyond

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can use this week’s Washington Summit to advance Canadian interests with the Obama Administration. Successful outcomes in Washington will also help to set both the agenda and right mood for the upcoming North American Leaders Summit and, next January, for opening discussions with the next U.S. Administration. A Canadian action agenda is outlined below followed by background and historical analysis. Specific initiatives are grouped in four baskets: Security; Trade and Economic; Climate and the North; and Getting It Done.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

170. A Primer to the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS)

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: On Wednesday, June 29th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will host US President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto for the tenth North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). All three leaders want this meeting to succeed. For President Obama, it will advance his climate agenda continentally and help to cement his legacy in managing good neighbourhood relations. Climate also rates high in President Peña Nieto’s agenda, along with improving access for Mexican goods and mobility for Mexicans within North America. In terms of Canada-Mexico relations, President Peña Nieto expects Prime Minister Trudeau to announce the lifting of the obnoxious Canadian visa requirement. For Prime Minister Trudeau, making his debut as host of a multilateral summit, it is another demonstration that ‘Canada is back’. He must reset the Mexican relationship by announcing the long-promised lifting of the visa. He will get to know Enrique Peña Nieto better (they met briefly at November’s G20 summit and they were friendly ‘rivals’ for ‘APEC ‘hottie’ at the subsequent Manila summit). The summit represents another opportunity for ‘face-time’ with Barack Obama with whom he has quickly established a strong personal friendship and to reciprocate the hospitality of the White House meetings and state dinner in March. The North American summit comes within a week of the Brexit referendum. It will offer an opportunity for the three leaders to demonstrate a different kind of continental integration – less centralized, less bureaucratic – but still successful in mutually advancing economic prosperity that reinforces the sovereignty of each member.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

171. A Way Ahead With Russia

Author:: Chris Westdal
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada and Russia are on speaking terms again. Our government has abandoned Stephen Harper’s policy of vocal disdain and the attempted isolation of Russia. We stand against Russian “interference” in Ukraine but, in the words of Global Affairs Minister, Stephane Dion, “the more we disagree, the more we have to discuss.” This paper describes the setting of Canada-Russia re-engagement in terms of current tension in East-West, NATO-Russia relations and of heightened Canadian foreign policy aspiration; rehearses the case for earnest, long-term Western and Canadian engagement, with investment of senior attention and talent; cautions that, though a bit of spring has sprung, there is a lot of ice to thaw, as bilateral sanctions are likely to be lifted only in step with allies and the implementation, halting at best, of the Minsk peace plan; assesses Russia’s vulnerabilities and the record of its interventions in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria; recommends active Canadian support, by all means, for Ukrainian-Russian reconciliation and for a better fence, a “mending wall” between Russia and NATO; and suggests formats and first steps toward the normalization of bilateral and multilateral relations with our Arctic neighbour.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Canada

172. Canada and Saudi Arabia: A deeply flawed but necessary partnership

Author:: Thomas Juneau
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The proposed $15 billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has brought significant attention – mostly negative – to Canada’s partnership with the Arabian Peninsula kingdom. Much of this criticism is valid: the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is abysmal, and Canada and its allies incur costs by being associated with Riyadh’s poor foreign policy choices. But to stop the analysis here and call for the cancelling of the deal fails to take into account the strategic rationale underlying the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Despite its many flaws, the partnership between Saudi Arabia and West, and therefore Canada, remains necessary; rejecting it and turning Saudi Arabia into a rival would make things worse. An important implication is that the best way forward with regards to the LAV deal is to collectively hold our nose, uphold the agreement, and move on.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Canada and Saudi Arabia

173. Clinton or Trump: Canada’s Energy Relations with the US

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Energy, the environment, and climate change will figure prominently in Canada-US relations after January 20, 2017. The environmental movement will continue to press for ‘environmental justice’ –which means different things to different groups - in alignment with allies, especially indigenous peoples. Regardless of whether it is a Clinton or Trump presidency, Canadian leadership - provincial, federal, and private sector - must pro-actively advance our interests with Congress, the Administration and its agencies, and with state governments. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump plan to spend a lot of money on infrastructure, including that related to energy. US business likes this idea. A majority of Republicans and Democrats, in both the Senate and House, as well as governors, would like more money devoted to infrastructure. Again, there will be opportunities for collaboration, improving North America’s relative competitiveness. Trade figured prominently throughout the campaign with Hillary Clinton stating that she would not accept the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in its current form and would appoint a ‘Trade Prosecutor’. Donald Trump has declared he will “tear up” the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and not sign the TPP. Regardless of who becomes president, we can expect more US protectionist trade action whether aimed directly at Canada - levies on softwood lumber are coming soon - or indirectly, as we recently experienced on aluminum when the US took aim at China.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

174. The Russian Reality Check on Turkey's Gas Hub Hopes

Author:: Morena Skalamera
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: On Nov 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet after it veered into its airspace for 17 seconds. On December 13, a Russian ship fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel in the Aegean Sea. Bilateral tensions, with overt military dimensions, have seemed to quickly replace the goodwill that characterized relations only a year ago. Over the past few weeks, experts and observers have debated whether this incident will jeopardize deep Turkish-Russian energy cooperation—and whether newfound tensions between Moscow and Ankara will thwart Turkey’s ambition to transform itself into an energy hub. A closer look suggests grounds for both optimism and pessimism. Given the deep interests of both parties in continuing energy cooperation, and the mutual nature of the dependency, tensions over Syria are unlikely to adversely impact energy cooperation in a fundamental way. Turkey, however, is unlikely to realize its vision of an energy hub—not because of Russia, but because of a combination of domestic and other geopolitical factors.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Geopolitics, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Turkey

175. On Political Forgiveness: Some Preliminary Reflections

Author:: Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief examines political forgiveness, when countries or groups are able to reconcile or set aside historic enmities. The inability to overcome longstanding grievances—however justified and deeply rooted—often undermine a group’s or nation’s current core interests. This lack of forgiveness manifests throughout the world: tribal warfare in South Sudan, hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seemingly irreconcilable differences within the European neighborhood, and the failure to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Deep animus often seems to take precedence over interests. What conditions are necessary for political forgiveness, and through what process is it achieved? How is it that some countries, like Germany, have been able to find their way through this thicket, while others, such as Japan, have not—or at least not to a comparable extent? And, in cases of genocide, such as Rwanda, where political forgiveness may well be impossible, should the international community more purposefully examine the social license extended to victims? Ambassador Wendy Sherman makes the case that insights from frameworks of personal forgiveness can help nations seize the moment when their interests align and, accordingly, move to achieve political forgiveness. First, the process of forgiveness requires a sense of justice—victims must feel that perpetrators have been held accountable and will no longer be able to hurt them. It must also be a deep, extended undertaking: when perpetrators offer only superficial acknowledgments of the victims’ pain and attempt to move on quickly, victims perceive those efforts as perfunctory, even disingenuous. Additionally, countries must reestablish genuine, ongoing contact to overcome narratives of “the other” that inhibit forgiveness. They should not assume, however, that political forgiveness will proceed as a linear, three-part process in which the perpetrator issues an apology, the victim accepts the apology, and the two subsequently cultivate their ties on the basis of aligned national interests. This examination finds that the process works best in the reverse order: only upon discerning that their strategic interests happen to align do conflicting countries begin to move toward reconciliation and forgiveness.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Forgiveness
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

176. Promoting Rule of Law: Myth Versus Reality

Author:: Christina Murtaugh
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Rule of law has long been a key international concern, especially for conflict-affected countries, and promoting it is a critical challenge to the international community. This Peace Brief focuses on the misconceptions of what is called the golden hour approach to offer more practicable alternatives. The issue is focus—whether to find a solution among Western paradigms or to empower people, support sustainable change, and provide enough time for the people to act and the process to unfold on their own terms.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Law

177. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: International Relations, Communism, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

178. Implications of Downed Russian Jet on Turkey-Russia Relations

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: After Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane 24 November 2015, tensions between the two countries came to a head, particularly given their very different political positions on the Syrian issue. With Russia an ally of the Assad regime, and Turkey an ally of the opposition, the downed Russian jet has been the latest in a string of incidents that have threatened otherwise growing economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. This position paper argues that escalation of the tension between the two sides will have ramifications not only for the two parties involved, but also for the Syrian crisis.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Turkey

179. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey

180. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
Topic:: International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

181. In the Balance: Searching for protection in eastern DRC

Author:: Hannah Cooper
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As 2014 starts, there are reasons to hope that peace may be in sight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). National initiatives and committed regional and international political engagement in 2013 led to important advances and new framework agreements to resolve the conflict and insecurity. However, the people Oxfam talked to across eastern DRC reported that their situation remains precarious, particularly in remote areas where there is little state presence. Ongoing national, regional and international engagement is needed, as well as efforts to ensure that high level agreements and initiatives are systematically linked to community experiences. Without these, it is possible that this rare opportunity will be wasted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

182. The ICC under Political Pressure: Towards Lowered Expectations of Global Justice

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) launched investigations into the 2007-2008 post-election violence in Kenya, in which some 1,200 people were killed and several hundred thousand displaced. The ICC is breaking new ground with the Kenyan cases; for the first time sitting heads of state are facing charges before the Court. Kenya's response to the proceedings has involved a number of political and judicial measures. It has obstructed the work of the Court; it has sought deferral of the cases by the Security Council; and it has threatened the ICC with mass withdrawals. Kenya's objection to the trials has gained regional support and renewed strength for the claim that the Court has an anti-African bias. Its claims that the Court should not prosecute state leaders because of concerns over regional peace and security have been met with understanding. The Security Council has, however, refused to suspend the trials. The political attack against the ICC will have broader implications for the Court. The Court will need to reconsider how it protects witnesses, safeguards evidence, and selects cases for prosecution. It may even have to retreat from the principle of prosecuting sitting heads of state. The expectations placed upon the ICC as an institution of global justice have been unrealistic. The current international political climate will not further this goal. Major powers remain outside the Court and the current Ukrainian crisis will make it hard to agree upon Security Council referrals.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, International Organization, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

183. Chinese Dream, Others' Nightmare? Despite superficial similarities, China is not destined to follow Russia's path to rogue-dom

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although China's statements about the Ukrainian crisis have been weighed very carefully, there are concerns that China is drawing lessons such as 'might is right' and 'geopolitics is all that matters' from the crisis. The hawks in China have adopted a similar tone to that of the Kremlin, with both wishing to see a relatively diminished Western influence in the international arena. The Chinese Dream is all about national rejuvenation, which entails redressing past grievances. Nevertheless, the Dream need not turn into a nightmare for other powers. The increase in China's military budget does not indicate growing ambitions of a global power projection. China's primary concern remains stability both within and without its borders.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

184. Maximizing the Impact of Aid to Pakistan: Leverage Reform and Local Capacity

Author:: Richard Albright
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The effectiveness of U.S. civilian assistance to Pakistan depends on sustained funding commitments from the United States and sustained commitment to economic and institutional reform from Pakistan. Weak public institutions and poor governance have greatly impeded Pakistan's development. U.S. assistance should focus on strengthening institutions systemically. Direct assistance to the Pakistani government—through financing that supports specific reform programs and policy initiatives and cash-on-delivery mechanisms that offer assistance after agreed performance criteria are met—could incentivize Pakistani public institutions to improve service delivery. Pakistan's devolution of authority to the provinces offers an opportunity for well-targeted and cost-effective initiatives to incentivize improvements in provincial public service delivery in such areas as basic education, health and policing.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

185. Georgia's Search for the Third Way: Despite a strong westward pull, Georgia attempts to improve its relations with Russia

Author:: Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia is not likely to resort to overt political pressure on Georgia in the run-up to Georgia's signing of the Association Agreement with the EU (27 June), and the NATO Summit in Wales (4-5 September). This is partly due to its weak levers and the fact that they cannot be strengthened within a short time span. Instead, Russia is likely to apply a dual strategy by strengthening its indirect 'influence tools' that are operating within Georgian society, as well as by continuing dialogue and pragmatic cooperation with the Georgian leadership - at least for the time being. Moscow is likely to stand firm on the issue of the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In all likelihood, Russia will seek to increase its control over the territories, and to hamper any rapprochement between Georgia and the separatist territories. Despite the fact that the Russian intervention in Ukraine is likely to deter and delay substantial progress in the cooperation between Georgia and Russia, both sides seem to be willing to continue on the path of 'normalisation'. A practical compromise on the Georgian westward course seems to be emerging: in all likelihood Georgia will sign the Association Agreement with the EU without much Russian interference, but NATO will not offer Georgia a Membership Action Plan at the Summit.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia

186. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul in July 2014 shows how the relations between China and South Korea have taken center stage in North- East Asia. Both countries are building up a growing strategic partnership, as a result of emerging cross-interests in the region and robust trade relations. This dynamic underlines the dilemma Seoul faces in maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States, while turning increasingly toward China as its core partner for both its economic development and its North Korea policy.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

187. The Middle East and North Africa: Change and Upheaval 2014

Author:: Christian Koch
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The breakdown of state structures and the wider regional political order has resulted in a complex tapestry of conflict throughout the Middle East that is likely to produce a continued period of volatility and violence for several years to come. This is because there are numerous dynamics at play that are competing with one another across various levels. Within these dynamics, religion as a mobilizing factor which, alongside sectarianism has emerged as a primary driving force for many of the ongoing conflicts. In addition, the deep crisis of the nation-state has released different dichotomies resulting in overlapping lines of confrontation that seem to be exploding all at once. The situation is exacerbated by the diminished leverage of global players on regional forces and regional players over national ones, thus significantly complicating the search for solutions.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and North Africa

188. The EU in the MENA region: confounded by the chaos?

Author:: Domhnall O'Sullivan
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The first concerns the fundamental methodological logic of the policy instruments underpinning EU action in its neighbourhood. Historically, a certain duality has existed between the multilateral regionalism of grand approaches towards the south and the bilateral realism which often comes to the fore. According to institutional dynamics and preferences – as well as vacillating local conditions – the EU has moved back and forth along this continuum.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

189. Turning the Tide on Ebola: Scaling up public health campaigns before it's too late

Author:: Debbie Hillier
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is totally unprecedented. The accelerating number of cases, the poor health infrastructure in affected countries, the short supply of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding this disease are providing a huge challenge to affected governments and the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Health Care Policy, and Ebola
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

190. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

191. Time to Worry about China's Military Rise

Author:: Evan Braden Montgomery
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: What are the potential consequences of China's military modernization? This question is at the heart of recent debates over the durability of U.S. primacy, whether or not the United States can sustain its grand strategy of global engagement, and how it should adapt its armed forces. During the past two decades, China has been increasing its defense spending, developing new war fighting strategies, and fielding advanced weapons systems. Yet many scholars and policymakers still believe that U.S. dominance will remain uncontested.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: North America

192. Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Goals in the BRICS-Led New Development Bank

Author:: Kathryn Hochstetler
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The BRICS countries held their annual meeting in Fortaleza, Brazil on July 15-17, 2014. While there, they formally launched their NDB, answering some of the many lingering questions about its function (BRICS 2014). The Shanghai based bank will have at least US$50 billion in initial capital, making it a significant new entrant into the sphere of global development finance. India will hold its first rotating presidency, but all five of the countries have particular roles to play. The lengthy presidential declaration gave little new information about the kinds of projects that will receive funding; however, simply repeating earlier statements that it will finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects. This policy brief examines how the NDB is likely to approach those two policy objectives, and notes a potential clash of these goals. There is already abundant evidence on this issue in the 2013 agreements and in the current financing patterns of the various national development banks of the BRICS member countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Development, and Environment

193. Prepare for a 'multi-partner' world! Reordering Order

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: If decision-makers are to cope with a rapidly emerging polycentric world characterized by compounding complexity and declining constitutionalism, new forms of statecraft are need - ed. Partnerships may well be the way forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Power Politics

194. EU – NATO Relations in The Western Balkans

Author:: Michael Littlehale
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: This paper will outline past examples of successful cooperation in relevant operations (that is, in meeting security issues on the continent) in the western Balkans, and show the implications this has in moving forward. In doing so, the initial international response to the breakup of Yugoslavia will briefly be reviewed, and the subsequent involvement of NATO and Europe to these conflicts in the 1990s. This leads to US/NATO efforts that finally brought the warring parties to the table, and Europe’s increasing involvement as NATO phased out its operations. The evolution of institutional and operational dynamics of cooperation between the EU and NATO will then be examined before focusing on this relationship in regards to the western Balkans, and the impact it has had on the region —both positive and negative —to date. The paper will conclude with the lessons drawn and the implications for EU and NATO relations’ moving forward, as conflict once again has emerged on the European continent.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

195. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations

Author:: Filippo Urbinati
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

196. Energy Crossroads: Shifting Dynamics in the Troubled Triangle Between Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad

Author:: Emanuela Pergolizzi
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Iraq, Turkey, and the Kurdistan Regional Government are in tense political relations over recent energy politics and regional dynamics. While major international interests related to oil and gas resources might currently be at stake, historic mistrusts and deeper political challenges seem to stand in the way of a peaceful trilateral cooperation. While energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government grow apace, Ankara seems to stand both as an active gambler and a key facilitator. The domestic and regional dynamics unfolding in Turkey will likely be indicators of whether a durable peace situation can succeed over longHstanding political obstacles and historical tensions between the countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

197. Does Beijing Have a Strategy? China's Alternative Futures

Author:: Banning Garrett and Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As China's National Party Congress gathered in early March to anoint Xi Jinping and the next generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing's behavior at home and abroad strongly suggested that, while they have strategic goals, they have no strategy for how to achieve them. Beijing seems unable to change course from following a development model it has outgrown and pursuing assertive, zero-sum foreign policies that are counter to its long-term interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: China and Asia

198. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:: Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

199. The Start-Up Fund – An Elegant Treaty Mechanism for Sustaining Defence Capabilities

Author:: Dinesh H.C. Rempling and Quentin Huxham
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: At his regular press briefing on 6 May 2013, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, dramatically threw down the gauntlet to Europe's leaders ahead of this December's European Council. Emphasising the need for improved cooperation and coordination between NATO and the EU, he called on Europe's leaders to ensure that, as a result of the first discussion about European security since the financial crisis at the European Council in December, Europe would be both willing and able to act in the interests of transatlantic security.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

200. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict

Author:: Thomas Pierret
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

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