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102. Armed groups are here to stay
- Author:
- Jairo Munive and Finn Stepputat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Armed non-state actors are significant players in most conflicts. The international community is often forced to engage with them in order to secure humanitarian aid for civilians or to end armed political conflicts. The question of when and how to engage is being debated. We suggest a more pragmatic approach.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
103. Scope and Structure of German Official Development Assistance: Trends and Implications for the BMZ and Other Ministries
- Author:
- Michael Bohnet, Stephan Klingebiel, and Paul Marschall
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The structure of German Official Development Assistance (ODA) is in a state of transition. Germany’s growing international role, the increasing importance of climate issues as well as the refugee crisis are contributing greatly to a significant increase in German ODA, which has more than doubled since 2012 and amounted to around EUR 22 billion in 2017. The coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and the SPD in 2018 has prioritised ODA-eligible expenditures and views development policy as a priority area. Significant changes can also be seen with regard to the scope and pattern of ODA expenditures
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Germany
104. Unfinished Business: An Appraisal of the Latest UNDS Reform Resolution
- Author:
- Max Otto Baumann and Silke Weinlich
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Can the United Nations Development System (UNDS) become a resourceful, well-organised partner for member states in implementing the 2030 Agenda? The UNDS is the biggest multilateral development actor, accounting for $18.4 billion, or 33 per cent, of multilateral aid in 2015. Its functions range from providing a forum for dialogue, decision-making and norm-setting, to research, advocacy, technical assistance and humanitarian aid. Numerous governments, including those of high-income countries, are counting on the UN’s assistance for advancing their development in a sustainable way. More than any other development organisation, the UNDS needs to adjust in order to fulfil these expectations. In May 2018, UN member states set the course for reforming the UNDS by agreeing on a draft resolution. The resolution contains five potentially transformative decisions that will bring the UNDS a step closer to being “fit for purpose”, the term under which the reform process was initiated more than three years ago. The global structures of the UNDS are to be strengthened, making the system more strategic and accountable; Resident Coordinators are to coordinate more effectively and objectively; their funding will be guaranteed by a new 1 per cent levy on tightly earmarked contributions; common business operations are to be advanced, with potential efficiency gains of $380 million per year; and the UN’s vast network of country offices is to be consolidated for more efficiency and effectiveness.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
105. Data for Development: An Agenda for German Development Cooperation
- Author:
- Claudia Schwegmann and Sarah Holzapfel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Data is a central but underestimated prerequisite for the realisation of the 2030 Agenda. Although technical innovations such as smartphones or the internet of things have led to a data explosion in recent years, there are still considerable gaps in the availability and use of data in developing countries and development cooperation (DC) in particular. So far it is not possible to report regularly on the majority of the 230 indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
- Topic:
- International Affairs and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
106. Access to Environmental Information: A Driver of Accountable Governance in Morocco and Tunisia?
- Author:
- Annabelle Houdret, Irene Pasqua, and Saâd Filali Meknassi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- In Tunisia, Morocco and other North African countries, en¬vironmental problems increasingly lead to political protest. Industrial pollution and a lack of clean drinking water adversely impact the living conditions and income op¬portunities of already marginalised groups and trigger unrest. Environmental governance in the region is often highly centralised, and takes no consideration of the needs of the citizens in the use of natural resources. In a political context that remains unstable following the 2011 uprisings, the double challenge of mounting environmental problems and related social unrest calls for new approaches. Reinforcing accountable environmental governance could help, not only by addressing environmental problems and needs, but by contributing to the overall transformation of societal relationships towards more democratic (i.e. transparent, accountable and participative) governance in the longer term.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- North Africa
107. EU Engagement with Africa on Migration: A Change of Approach Required
- Author:
- Clare Castillejo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Migration was an important issue at the November African Union (AU)-European Union (EU) summit. While the tone of discussion was somewhat improved on that of recent years, divisions between the two continents remain great. Europe and Africa still have fundamentally different positions in relation to migration, with the EU and many European member states prioritising prevention and return, while African governments focus more on remittances and legal migration opportunities. However, Europe’s current approach does not acknowledge these differing interests and instead seeks to impose its own agenda in ways that threaten to undermine important African ambitions. In recent years, the EU has launched initiatives aimed at curbing migration from Africa that have caused significant controversy, notably the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) and the Migration Partnership Framework (MPF). These initiatives suffer from a number of weaknesses. The EUTF is based on the flawed premise that development assistance can prevent migration. It diverts aid to migration goals, and its projects often do not comply with development principles such as transparency, ownership and alignment. Meanwhile, the MPF seeks to use positive and negative incentives across a range of external action areas to encourage partners to cooperate with the EU’s migration goals – primarily on prevention and return. So far, results have been limited and it has soured relations with some partner countries.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
108. Do Trade Deals Encourage Environmental Cooperation?
- Author:
- Jean-Frédéric Morin, Vera Chaudhuri, and Mathilde Gauquelin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Trade agreements have mixed effects on the environment. On the one hand, trade generates additional pollution by raising production levels. Trade rules can also restrict the capacity of governments to adopt environmental regulations. On the other hand, trade agreements can favour the diffusion of green technologies, make production more efficient and foster environmental cooperation. Whether the overall effect is positive or negative partly depends on the content of the trade agreement itself. Recent studies have found that trade agreements with detailed environmental provisions, in contrast to agreements without such provisions, are associated with reduced levels of CO2 emission and suspended particulate matter (Baghdadi et al., 2013; Zhou, 2017). It remains unclear, however, which specific provisions have a positive environmental impact and how they are actually implemented.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
109. From Damage Control to Sustainable Development: European Development Policy under the Next EU Budget
- Author:
- Svea Koch, Niels Keijzer, Christine Hackenesch, and Julian Bergmann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The EU is one of the leading global players in international development, trade, peace and security. Therefore, a key part of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) is the one reserved for action beyond EU’s borders. This budget heading is called ‘Global Europe’ (also referred to as Heading IV). Under the current budget for the period of 2014 to 2020, including the inter-governmental European Development Fund (EDF), over 90 billion euros are available for the EU’s external action. The lion’s share of this is reserved for development cooperation. In previous years, the EU has dealt with new challenges in external action mostly by creating specific initiatives and new financial instruments. At the start of the negotiations on the next MFF, Heading IV thus appears to be rather complex and fragmented compared to other headings.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
110. A European Peace Facility Could Make a Pragmatic Contribution to Peacebuilding around the World
- Author:
- Mark Furness and Julian Bergmann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The question of how the EU should finance peacebuilding in developing countries has challenged policy-makers and pundits for many years. At one level this is a technical and legal issue of budget lines and financing rules. It nevertheless touches on the much deeper political and even moral issues of whether the EU should use development aid to finance security provision, how best the EU can respond to the legitimate needs of partners in conflict-affected countries and what kind of civil and/or military engagements the EU can support as part of its external relations. The question has come to resemble the proverbial can being kicked along the road by successive European Commissioners, Council working groups and parliamentary committees. It has come to a head again because intra-EU negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 are starting in earnest. This time, a sensible proposal is on the table which can potentially provide a pragmatic and workable solution, at least for a while.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
111. How to Identify National Dimensions of Poverty? The Constitutional Approach
- Author:
- Francesco Burchi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- With the signing of the 2030 Agenda, the international community has committed to ending poverty in all its forms. This first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) recognises poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon that goes beyond the simple lack of a sufficient amount of income. However, the way the SDG 1 and, in particular, Target 1.2 – “reduce … poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions” – are formulated poses challenges for its operationalisation. Which specific dimensions of poverty should a country focus on? How can we identify them? Is it possible to agree on a universal set of dimensions with which to compare poverty across several countries?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
112. From Urban Fragility to Urban Stability
- Author:
- Stephen Commins
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The growing share of Africa’s urban residents living in slums is creating a further source of fragility. In response, some cities are implementing integrated urban development strategies that link local government, police, the private sector, and youth to strengthen social cohesion and enhance stability.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Urbanization, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa
113. The Maghreb’s Fragile Edges
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Persistent economic and social disparities between urban centers and outlying communities present an ongoing source of instability for countries in the Maghreb.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Maghreb
114. Trump, Xi and the eclipse of the liberal world order
- Author:
- Andreas Bøje Forsby
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Until recently, we were operating under the assumption that the liberal world order would prove sufficiently inclusive, productive and resilient to serve as a stable framework for international cooperation. But such optimism seems increasingly unwarranted as a wide host of existential challenges have materialized, including the return of geopolitics, the resurgence of autocratic leadership, the revival of economic protectionism and the rising tide of populism and nationalism.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
115. Fighting Military Corruption in Fragile States
- Author:
- Louise Riis Andersen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Anti-corruption is central to building capable and legitimate security institutions in fragile states. However, military capacity-building programs often do not include anti-corruption measures. Denmark should strive to put the fight against military corruption on the international agenda
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Affairs, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
116. Encryption Policy in Democratic Regimes
- Author:
- Tony Bricktua and Abigail Lawson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Report Recommends Approaches to Meet Needs of Law Enforcement While Managing Risks to Cybersecurity and Privacy
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
117. Environmental Challenges in a Conflictive Environment
- Author:
- Wael Abdul-Shafi and Jan Hanrath
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The repercussions of climate change and environmental challenges pose enormous risks to Iran and Saudi Arabia alike. While there are differences in geography and climate in both countries, they also have many environmental challenges in common. Problems such as sand and dust storms or diminishing water resources are border-crossing phenomena that no country can deal with alone; therefore, cooperation is key. At this point in time, however, willingness to cooperate is utterly lacking in a region marked by geo-strategic rivalries, ongoing military conflicts and deep-rooted mutual distrust between regional rivals, and between Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular.
- Topic:
- Environment and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
118. Returnees: who are they, why are they (not) coming back and how should we deal with them? Assessing policies on returning foreign terrorist fighters in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands
- Author:
- Thomas Renard and Rik Coolsaet
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Some 5000 men, women and children have travelled from Europe to Syria and Iraq since 2012. An estimated 1500 of these foreign terrorist fighters (FTF) have returned so far. Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands represent a third of European FTF and returnees. This report looks into the evolution of policies on returning foreign fighters in these three countries, comparing responses with regard to fighters that are still in the conflict zone, policies to deal with returnees in prison and attitudes towards the children of foreign fighters. It is the very first systematic and in-depth study into national approaches and policies vis-à-vis returnees. Its added value lies in the wealth of data, including data that has not been published before, and in the comparative angle.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Affairs, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
119. Large-Scale Farms and Smallholders: Evidence from Zambia
- Author:
- Jann Lay, Kerstin Nolte, and Kacana Sipangule
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In light of the surge in large‐scale farms in developing countries, concerns have been raised that smallholders may be negatively affected. There is, however, very little evidence beyond case studies to support these claims. Drawing on nationally representative house‐ hold data sets and an inventory of large‐scale farms in Zambia, this study investigates the relationship between large‐scale farms and smallholders. First, we analyse the geograph‐ical contexts of wards that host large‐scale farms and show that large‐scale farms are found in wards with good infrastructure and soil quality. Second, we adopt a difference‐ in‐differences approach to estimate the impacts of large‐scale farms on smallholders’ area cultivated, maize yields, and access to fertiliser. We find that smallholders in wards with large‐scale farms increase their area cultivated and maize yields, but have lower fertiliser usage. This hints at positive spillovers at the extensive and intensive margins but not at improved access to agricultural inputs. It is likely that these results are also driven by the emergence of medium‐scale farms in these regions.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Zambia
120. EU's PESCO: A new foreign policy instrument or the same old story?
- Author:
- Amal Cemal Ertürk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Since the end of World War II, foreign policy and security issues have haunted the European dreams of complete integration in terms of alignment in a highly challenging field, which is also constantly interrupted by sovereignty concerns of member states. Within today’s changing dynamics, the EU’s current instruments seem to fall short of preventing terrorism or providing a meaningful answer to the problems in the Middle East. The EU’s capacity to act in this field needs to be strengthened. The newest approach presented by the European External Action Service (EEAS) is called PESCO (the Permanent Structured Cooperation) and aims to change this current structure of “inactivity”. This short paper will briefly analyze this new instrument.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
121. Failure to Protect Syria: will the UN Security Council invoke R2P ever again?
- Author:
- Çağlar Açıkyıldız
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The events in Syria since the beginning of the conflict in 2011 have been a source of concern for the international community. The ongoing civil war has caused many military and civilian casualties. Reports on the state of the country indicate that both government forces and rebels have committed both crimes against humanity and war crimes. What began as a crisis in March 2011, turned into a civil war between the Syrian government and armed opposition groups and has resulted in over 465,000 deaths. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), as of April 2017, there were more than 5 million Syrian refugees and at least 6.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Over 13.5 million Syrians remain in dire need of humanitarian assistance, with 4.5 million people in inaccessible areas, including at least 419,900 people trapped in 10 besieged communities. Besides, Islamic State has been very effective in the country especially since 2014. The Islamic State took control of some land and equally committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. Therefore, Syria demonstrates a clear case of a state unable or unwilling to protect its own citizens; hence, enough ground to invoke Responsibility to Protect (R2P) to save civilian lives in Syria. However, it is difficult to assume that the international community has a solution to the problem. In this paper, the validity of the R2P and problems of its implementation in the Syrian case are discussed.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
122. Humanitarian Action and Sustaining Peace
- Author:
- Alice Dabarre
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- While humanitarian action was traditionally designed to be a short-term emergency response, this is increasingly perceived as inaccurate and even undesirable. Humanitarian actors have acknowledged a responsibility to work toward bridging the “humanitarian-development divide” and not to overlook the nexus between addressing and reducing humanitarian needs and building the foundations for sustaining peace.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
123. Aligning Agendas: Drugs, Sustainable Development, and the Drive for Policy Coherence
- Author:
- International Expert Group on Drug Policy Metrics
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Current drug policy too often has a negative impact on communities and runs counter to efforts to ameliorate poverty through sustainable development. However, this is often not captured by the metrics used to measure the impact of drug policy. One way to improve these metrics is to align them with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This would not only help overcome many of the limitations of drug policies resulting from suboptimal metrics but also make sure these policies enhance, rather than hinder, efforts to achieve the SDGs.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
124. Toward a New Gambia: Linking Peace and Development
- Author:
- Lesley Connolly and Cheryl He
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In December 2016 Gambians took to the polls and successfully replaced longtime president Yahya Jammeh with current President Adama Barrow, ushering in a political transition. More than a year into this transition, the country is at a tipping point. Public expectations remain high, and the list of competing priorities, from increasing economic opportunities to implementing transitional justice, is long.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Gambia
125. The Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen: Beyond the Man-Made Disaster
- Author:
- Guillio Coppi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Two years into its current crisis, Yemen is torn apart by an interlinked series of conflicts with intricate and mobile front lines. These have resulted in what the UN has called “the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.” While compounded by decades of conflict, violence, and underdevelopment, the major cause of the humanitarian crisis in Yemen remains the conflict between the two competing governments, along with the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Yemen
126. Evaluating mechanisms for investigating attacks on heathcare
- Author:
- Els Debuf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- IPI’s research project on mechanisms to investigate attacks on healthcare aims to assist the Security Council, relevant UN organs, member states, and other stakeholders in operationalizing Resolution 2286 and the UN secretary-general’s recommendations for its implementation. The project focuses on recommendations regarding the use of international mechanisms to ensure that the “full, prompt, impartial and effective investigations” required by Resolution 2286 are carried out when parties to the conflict are unable or unwilling to do so themselves. Through a combination of desk research, key informant interviews, and an expert meeting bringing together stakeholders in the implementation of Resolution 2286 and experts on international fact-finding and investigation into violations of international humanitarian law, the project developed a set of tools, available on this page. These include:
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
127. ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done?
- Author:
- Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- In October 2017, twenty-two scholars from eight countries attended a workshop titled “ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What should be done?” The workshop was designed to facilitate a frank and creative discussion of policy recommendations, with the intention of providing the resulting proposals to ASEAN member states and other regional powers. Following two days of discussion and debate, the attendees produced a series of specific policy recommendations (SPRs).
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Asia
128. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan push for cooperation
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The African Union (AU) held its 30th Summit from 22 – 29 January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The central theme of the Summit was a clarion call to strengthen African unity and fight against corruption and the eradication of poverty on the continent. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda was elected the new AU chairperson at the Summit, however, it is a significant development that transpired on the sidelines of the Summit among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan that this policy update seeks to address pursuant to an earlier published policy brief, The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix.2 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn all signaled their resolve to avoid misunderstandings cognizance of Ethiopia’s construction of its dam, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a sideline meeting at the Summit. A statement released by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that, “we (the three country heads) have agreed to work as one on matters among the three countries, particularly on the construction of the GERD” (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018).
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, Infrastructure, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt
129. Spotlight on Africa | Turkey–Africa Relations
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On the 11th and 12th of February 2018, the “2nd Turkey–Africa Ministerial Review Conference” transpired in Istanbul. The Conference was held under the tutelage of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. In participation was the Deputy Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, H. E. Thomas Qwesi Quartey together with several foreign affairs ministers of African countries as well as AU representatives. Considering that a Turkey–Africa Summit is scheduled to be held in 2019 in Turkey, this TurkeyAfrica Ministerial Review Conference was held to evaluate the progress of Turkey’s Africa partnership so far in conjunction with steps that could be taken to even solidify this special relationship.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Education, Health, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, and Middle East
130. A Tale of Three Headlines
- Author:
- David Boaz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Democrats accuse President Trump of abuse of executive power and “thinking he is a dictator.” But then, Republicans made similar charges about President Obama. They all have a point. At least since the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt, there has been a flow of power from civil society to government, from the states to the federal government, and from Congress to the executive branch. But a recent newspaper headline reminded me of some other headlines that tell a story.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
131. Repeal, Don’t Replace, the AUMF
- Author:
- Gene Healy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For the past 17 years, presidents have used the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) as a blank check to wage war whenever and wherever they please. Congress is now debating several replacement AUMFs—but these, too, pose the danger of granting the president far broader war powers than the Constitution envisioned. At a Capitol Hill Briefing, Cato’s GENE HEALY and JOHNGLASER made the case for repealing, rather than replacing, the AUMF.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
132. European strategic autonomy: Going it alone?
- Author:
- Margriet Drent
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- With the boost that has been given to the EU’s defence policy, some of the St. Malo reflexes have reoccurred in Washington. Mostly, there are some misgivings in the United States about the exact meaning of ‘European strategic autonomy’, as it featured in the 2016 EU Global Strategy. But also in Europe, it is not clear what strategic autonomy means. In light of the increasing uncertainty among the EU and European NATO-members about the solidity of the American security guarantees, strategic autonomy gains a new quality. If Europe were forced ‘to go it alone’, what would that take, both in terms of conventional and nuclear capabilities?
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
133. Is there protection in the region? Leveraging funds and political capital in Lebanon’s refugee crisis
- Author:
- Ana Uzelac and Jos Meester
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This report analyses the challenges of implementing a ´protection in the region´ agenda in Lebanon, a country that hosts the highest number of refugees per capita in the world, and which has been the recipient of one of the largest per capita aid and support packages since 2016. Our main finding is that EU diplomatic efforts and financial commitments to date have made very limited progress in ensuring protection for Syrian refugees in the country or improving their dismal socio-economic position. On the contrary, the main socio-economic indicators for Syrian refugees have remained very poor for the past three years, and the refugees’ continued presence in the country is increasingly questioned by parts of Lebanon’s political establishment.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Refugee Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Syria
134. Russia’s evolving gas relationship with the European Union: Trade surges despite political crises
- Author:
- Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Gas trade between the European Union and Russia increased considerably in both 2016 and 2017, despite the ongoing political crisis. Simultaneously, two long-standing disputes in the EU-Russia gas relationship – regarding Gazprom’s monopolistic practices and the EU’s third energy package – were settled. Russian companies have invested in new infrastructural projects for the export of gas to Europe, including the launch of the Yamal LNG terminal in December 2017 and the construction of the TurkStream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines. However, significant challenges remain for the relationship, most notably the intra-EU controversy on Nord Stream 2 and uncertainty about future gas transit in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
135. Germany and European defence cooperation: A post-Atlantic turn?
- Author:
- Niklas Helwig
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Tensions in the transatlantic partnership are spurring the German debate on how to prepare for the possibility of a post-Atlantic Europe. Germany has renewed its focus on the EU’s security and defence policy. This includes long-term initiatives to improve European operational readiness, as well as recognition of the EU mutual assistance clause in the doctrine of the German armed forces. However, efforts by German politicians to convince the public of the need for a greater international engagement face difficulties as Germans see the threat as negligible and eye the military with suspicion. The challenge for Berlin remains to step up the ambition for European defence cooperation, while avoiding new fault lines among EU members.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Germany
136. Pension reform in Russia: A test of the regime’s resilience and citizens’ patience
- Author:
- Jussi Lassila
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Kremlin has cast a cloud over the horizon for millions of Russian citizens. People do not perceive the forthcoming pension reform as a necessary measure for sustaining economic and social stability. Rather, it has ignited a collective sense of anger among the people that they have been cast adrift by the elite
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
137. Xi Jinping thought and China’s future foreign policy: Multipolarity with Chinese characteristics
- Author:
- Jyrki Kallio
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Xi Jinping Thought is aimed at guiding China both domestically and internationally. The goal is China’s national rejuvenation, which will break the global dominance of Western civilization. The revival must allegedly be led by a strong ideology guided by a strong and charismatic leader: Xi Jinping. Based on the ancient Chinese ideal of “great unity under Heaven”, Xi’s long-term goal for China is the creation of a “community of a common destiny for Mankind”. So far, this idea has no concrete manifestations on the global scale. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is building a regional community of common destiny in Central and Southeast Asia. This is both an indirect challenge to the existing “Western” system, and a step in delineating China’s sphere of influence.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China
138. The ICC and the RtoP in a post-interventionist world: Adapting to critique?
- Author:
- Katja Cruetz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) principle both seek to respond to mass atrocities. They are products of the heyday of the international liberal order, which allowed the formation of projects based upon interference in the internal affairs of states in order to protect populations from atrocity crimes. The changing international system with the redistribution of power between states has affected these projects by bringing uncontroversial activities to the fore in order to secure state acceptance. Consensus on the RtoP extends to the primacy of the state in protection of its populations, while actions of the international community going beyond assistance and capacity-building are contested, particularly highly coercive ones such as military intervention. Alongside its judicial task of trying perpetrators of international crimes, the ICC has focused on positive complementarity whereby national capabilities are enhanced. It has also engaged in symbolic activities, such as highlighting certain international crimes.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
139. The sustainability of the questionable US presidency: The Trump era might last longer than expected
- Author:
- Mika Aaltola
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The 2020 US presidential election could be a close call with a narrow margin of victory. Many key factors underlying Donald Trump’s 2016 electoral success are still active and might suffice to win over a very polarized electorate in an extremely ugly election.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- America
140. Resilience in the Face of Disruptions
- Author:
- NTS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Human activities, technology and climate change drive changes to our environmental landscape and societal order. Marine microplastics arising from woeful human use of plastics threaten marine ecology. Excessive consumption of fossil fuels disrupts weather systems and consequently undermines food security. Unequal access between the “haves and have nots” aggravates food insecurity. Without meaningful intervention, annual deaths from food-borne diseases (FBDs) caused by anti-microbial resistant (AMR) bacteria will reach 10 million in 2050. Human displacement continues unabated across state lines as humanitarian crises require fresh responses. Ubiquitous use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) has created a new landscape where cyber-threats target both hardware and software and where truth has become its latest victim. Moreover, social media has been weaponized to breed intolerance. The Annual Conference of the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia held in Singapore recently examined responses to these uncertainties, if not threats to humanity, arising from key disruptions. This report captures the responses and hopes touted by experts at the Conference with the view of providing policy makers and invested scholars interested in such developments with some recommendations towards building resilience within and across states.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Asia
141. Migration, Jobs and Wages: Reassessing Benefits and Challenges of Labour Migration
- Author:
- Jose Ma, Luis Montesclaros, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As Southeast Asian economies become deeply integrated, there are concerns as to whether movement of people through labour migration should be part of this integration. While labour migration offers benefits especially in addressing labour shortage in countries with shrinking working age population, for countries at different levels of economic development, opening up the labour markets presents disadvantages to locals facing more job competition and falling wages. This paper re-examines this debate by analysing a number of factors that have allowed states to maintain their competitiveness and improve wages. By comparing the experiences of a number of countries that have seen rising wages with those countries that saw falling wages with labour migration, and using a statistical (two-sample difference of means) test, this preliminary study shows that labour migration by itself is neither boon nor bane. A more nuanced view is needed, as labour migration’s impacts on wages hinge on the nature of institutional support provided by governments in helping firms to be internationally competitive.
- Topic:
- Migration and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
142. Integrating A Disaster Response Architecture In Timor-Leste: Opportunities And Challenges
- Author:
- Vishalini Chandara Sagar, Alistair D. B. Cook, Tamara Nair, and Foo Yen Ne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the past fifteen years, Timor Leste has made noteworthy gains in national development in general but continues to experience significant exposure during natural disasters like prolonged droughts and flooding in particular. Yet there is little documented evidence of these disasters and their impact on human security in Timor Leste. The challenges facing the country are considerable, and low institutional capacity makes it difficult for the government to increase resilience to slow onset disasters. This report explores how current structures, mechanisms and institutions in the country have been organised for emergencies and how disaster response operations have been conducted thus far. Data was collected by conducting in-depth interviews with relevant personnel from government agencies, international aid agencies and local non-state actors. This was supplemented by document analyses of major reports and literature surrounding disaster preparedness in the country. The findings reveal that there are three key strategies that need further development: enhancing institutional capacity, strengthening coordination mechanisms and evaluating current emergency response plans. Further research should include conducting a comprehensive needs assessment, mapping the localised response structures, and the contextualising of human insecurities in the country.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Timor-Leste
143. Inadvertent Escalation and the Entanglement of Nuclear Command-and-Control Capabilities
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This policy brief is based on “Escalation through Entanglement: How the Vulnerability of Command-and- Control Systems Raises the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War,” which appears in the summer 2018 issue of International Security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
144. How the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment Constrains American Grand Strategy
- Author:
- Patrick Porter
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Political scientists and historians continue to debate the sources of U.S. grand strategy. Some emphasize the importance of the United States’ material capabilities and large share of relative power; others point to the significance of ideas in shaping policymakers’ choices. Both accounts are incomplete. Two case studies—the first eighteen months of the presidency of Donald Trump and the presidency of Bill Clinton—demonstrate that the United States persists with a strategy of primacy because it has become a habit—an axiomatic, sacrosanct belief system that the American foreign policy establishment perpetuates.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
145. Egypt's New Realism: Challenges Under Sisi
- Author:
- Barak Barfi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Abdul Fattah al-Sisi became president in 2014, Egyptians were clamoring for stability after the chaos of the post–Arab Spring years and the failed leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood government. Emblematic of this stability, Sisi was at one point so highly regarded that his face adorned chocolate bars. Although he remains popular four years later, Sisi can no longer rest on prior achievements and promises of financial improvement. Grappling with a moribund economy, domestic unrest, jihadist threats, and foreign policy challenges, he will need even stronger support as he implements an austerity plan approved by the IMF in November 2016. In this new study, Barak Barfi methodically sets the leadership of President Sisi in the context of his military predecessors Gamal Abdul Nasser, Anwar Sadat, and Hosni Mubarak. He then examines trends in the country such as the growing role of the military, the need for reductions in subsidies, and the looming water crisis posed by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The U.S. role, as well, is subject to a much-needed assessment. Among the limited ways Washington can influence Cairo, he argues, is by tying increased aid to the enactment of essential economic reforms.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
146. The 2018 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer
- Author:
- Paul Holtom and Irene Pavesi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The 2018 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer (the Barometer) identifies the most and least transparent of 49 major small arms exporters, based on their reporting of their arms-trading activities undertaken in 2015.1 For the first time the Barometer assesses Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) and UN Programme of Action on small arms (PoA) reports to determine small arms exporters’ levels of transparency. These sources provide new information for the Barometer’s assessment of national transfer control systems, while ATT annual reports on arms exports reveal new data compared to national arms export reports; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) data, and the UN Register of Conventional Arms (UN Register). Despite the increase in reports containing information on national transfer control systems and small arms exports assessed by the Barometer, no major exporter received full marks for transparency.
- Topic:
- International Security, International Affairs, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
147. Capital of Militias: Tripoli's Armed Groups Capture the Libyan State
- Author:
- Wolfram Lacher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Since the arrival of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli in March 2016, four large local militias have gradually divided up the capital between themselves. Though nominally loyal to the government, they now exert a degree of influence over state institutions and resources that is unprecedented in post-Qaddafi Libya. This Paper examines the rise of a militia cartel in Tripoli, and concludes that the situation is untenable, as it risks provoking a major new conflict over Tripoli fought by those who have been excluded from access to the state and impedes efforts to establish a meaningful unity government
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya
148. Estimating Global Law Enforcement Firearms Numbers
- Author:
- Aaron Karp
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Available sources indicate that as of 2017 there was a global total of at least 22.7 million known or estimated law enforcement firearms, equal to roughly 2.2 per cent of all firearms identified by the Small Arms Survey around the world. Worldwide, 4.8 million law enforcement firearms have been reported to the Small Arms Survey or documented from other sources. An additional 17.9 million or so firearms owned by law enforcement agencies can be estimated with reasonable confidence. The global estimate is slightly lower than the previous Small Arms Survey global estimate for 2006, the result of methodological changes and a decision not to estimate the holdings for many specialized or smaller law enforcement agencies. There are several reasons to assume that the total of 22.7 million law enforcement firearms given in this Briefing Paper is an underestimate. The state of research on law enforcement armament makes it hard to say whether global law enforcement weapons inventories are increasing or decreasing. But the types of firearms used by law enforcement agencies appear to be changing more rapidly than those of military services, also becoming more alike to military armament
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
149. Estimating Global Civilian-held Firearms Numbers
- Author:
- Aaron Karp
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Uncertainty about any firearms data requires systematic estimation that relies on a broad spectrum of sources and makes approximation unavoidable. The Small Arms Survey’s estimates of civilian firearms holdings use data gathered from multiple sources. However, with much of civilian ownership concealed or hard to identify, gun ownership numbers can only approximate reality. Using data from several different sources, at the end of 2017 there were approximately 857 million civilian-held firearms in the world’s 230 countries and territories. Civilian firearms registration data was available for 133 countries and territories. Survey results were used to help establish total gun civilian holdings in 56 countries. The new figure is 32 per cent higher than the previous estimate from 2006, when the Small Arms Survey estimated there were approximately 650 million civilian-held firearms. Virtually all countries show higher numbers, although national ownership rates vary widely, reflecting factors such as national legislation, a country’s gun culture, historical and other factors. While some of the increase reflects improved data and research methods, much is due to actual growth of civilian ownership.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
150. Handmade and Deadly: Craft Production of Small Arms in Nigeria
- Author:
- Matthias Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Craft weapons production in Nigeria is under-researched, yet it is highly relevant for any future actions to counter small arms and light weapons proliferation.1 This Briefing Paper provides new research findings based on extensive fieldwork in four Nigerian states (Adamawa, Anambra, Benue, and Plateau). It reviews demand and supply factors that shape the craft market in Nigeria, finding that demand is driven by insecurity and conflict, but also by cultural and societal factors. Supply is mostly demand driven. The quality of the products and production methods varies greatly across the surveyed states. Craft production poses a significant challenge for the Nigerian state and will require a mix of holistic measures to regulate or deter it, ranging from improving security (and security perceptions) and the relationship between security providers and communities, to licensing, measures aimed at providing alternative livelihoods for craft producers, and a more comprehensive application of the relevant legal framework.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus