Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: International Affairs

201. The Billionaire at the Centre of the Largest Corruption Scandal in Latin America

Author:: Marcelo López de Aragón
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: The name Odebrecht has become irremediably tied to one of the largest corruption scandals in Latin American history. In the midst of the ongoing scandal is the man bearing the company’s name, one of Brazil’s richest men, Marcelo Odebrecht; a 48-year- old executive, who went from managing one of the world's largest construction firms to having several high-ranking government officials in Latin America look on nervously as the Brazilian construction tycoon confesses and provides details on an unparalleled and sophisticated bribery and bid-rigging scheme to Brazilian judicial authorities and to US courts.
Topic:: Corruption and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Latin America

202. South American Perspectives for Future Cooperation on Security Architecture: Arrangements, Processes and Challenges

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The Forte de Copacabana International Security Conference is a joint Euro-Brazilian project organised by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) in partnership with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) and supported by the Delegation of the European Union to Brazil. The conference is conceived as a forum for dialogue between South America and Europe. It aims to bring together experts from a wide range of government, academic and private-sector backgrounds to discuss current security-related issues which are of interest to the partners on both sides of the Atlantic. Since its inception in 2003, the conference has emerged from a relatively small gathering to Latin America’s largest security forum to date. The topic of the 14th edition of the conference is ‘Security Architecture: An Exchange between South America and Europe’. The conference is open to the public and the audience is encouraged to actively engage in discussions. As an innovation in 2017, this collection of Policy Papers reflects the major themes of the event and intend to identify challenges as well as make policy recommendations for the future. Previous volumes of the Forte de Copacabana International Security Conference publication can be accessed on the KAS-Brazil Office website
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: South America

203. The Global and European Security Order during the Crisis: Power, Institutions, Principles

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The international order is currently undergoing a fundamental change and it is evident that this phase that has been lasting since the end of the East-West conflict is almost coming to an end. This change is associated with side effects which many observers perceive as destabilizing, as well as with a great uncertainty concerning which new order will replace the so far established one and what effects this will have. This situation is easy to understand, as far as the history of international relations can be used to identify numerous epochal watersheds related to regulatory governance that have not been peaceful, but instead whose side effects have rather been inter-state wars. One should think, for instance, of the rise in political power of the German Reich at the beginning of the twentieth century, or the phase immediately after the Second World War, when the East-West conflict emerged as a determining force for a period of almost four decades.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. The South American Capabilities against Cyber Threats: From the Current Weaknesses towards a Common Response

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The Regional Security Architectures are challenged by the emergence of this new and enlarging space, whereas relationship, communication and operation are also new. In the cyberspace, the States’ empowerment is a complex matter and even if they succeed in doing so, they must resort to advanced technology. If we try to answer if South America has enough capacities against cyber threats, we necessarily must know what steps were given in each country. Integration is a pending debt in the sub region and it does not differ from a superior reality
Topic:: International Affairs and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. The European Capabilities against Cyber Threats: Strengthening IT Security in Germany

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: the Digital Agenda, in 2014 the German Federal Government proposed, within the framework of an IT Security Law, to strengthen IT security by expanding partnerships with critical infrastructure providers and by creating legal requirements, in addition to introducing an obligation to report significant incidents in the IT area. Germany was a pioneer with the IT Security Law in 2015.3 Through this law, critical infrastructure providers are required to ensure the security of their IT infrastructures according to the latest technology. The sectors concerned (information technology and telecommunications, energy management, food industry, water management, finance, transport and transit, as well as the health sector) have been defined in two regulations of the German Ministry of Interior, considering the quality and the amount of penetration rate achieved by systems, equipment or parts of critical infrastructures. The last regulation came into force at the end of June 2017.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

206. Policing Practices in a Global Perspective

Author:: Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Policing in the global North and the global South is becoming more alike. An increasingly common characteristic is the blurring of boundaries between rule-based and more personalized policing styles. Reasons for this approximation include a growing focus on fighting or preventing radicalisation globally, and a general debureaucratisation of policing that has occurred in the global North.
Topic:: Defense Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Africa Needs more Roads To Progress, Not Less

Author:: Hans Lucht
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: With no credible state in Libya, the EU is focused on putting the brakes on transit migration in the Sahelian countries. But closing the important Niger–Libya corridor through increased militarisation is detrimental to progress in this impoverished region.
Topic:: International Affairs and International Development
Political Geography:: Africa

208. Refugees in Turkey struggle as border walls grow higher

Author:: Ida Vammen and Hans Lucht
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Since the EU and Turkey sealed a migration deal in 2016, millions of refugees have been living on the fringes in Turkey. Without long-term solutions, they will continue to risk their lives by embarking on new, dangerous routes to Europe.
Topic:: International Affairs and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

209. The Weaponisation of Information

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: “The weaponization of information” alerts us to the thinking about the very conscious use of information to achieve various goals. Moreover, it reminds us of the new opportunities offered by modern information technology.
Topic:: International Affairs and Information Age
Political Geography:: Global Focus

210. Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Policy Assessment

Author:: Tony Bricktua
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute (EWI) has released Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Policy Assessment, the sixth and final report from the institute’s Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Afghan Narcotrafficking, which provides a comprehensive and updated assessment of the Afghan drug trade and the role that both the United States and Russia might be able to play in countering this shared threat.
Topic:: International Affairs and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

211. Dialogue on U.S.-China Infrastructure Cooperation

Author:: Natalie Pretzer-Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: On March 13, 2017, the EastWest Institute (EWI), in concert with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), convened the first ever conference on prospects for infrastructure cooperation between the United States and China. This conference, held in Beijing, brought together a U.S. delegation comprising investment and infrastructure experts—some of whom have advised the Trump administration on infrastructure—with Chinese counterparts from a number of private sector and state-owned enterprises. Discussion throughout the conference focused on the policy priorities of the Trump Administration; the Trump administration’s vision for the development of U.S. infrastructure; the current state of U.S.-China relations; and opportunities, challenges and recommendations for U.S.-China infrastructure cooperation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

212. Environmental Peacebuilding across boarders and sectors a concerted approach to multilateral cooperation in the Middle East

Author:: Inga Schierholz
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Disputes over water constitute a major area of disagreement between Israel and Palestine. The uncoordinated and irresponsible environmental actions on both sides have created serious ecological and humanitarian hazards that require rapid, yet sustainable action. Those who argue that the water problem can be resolved only as part of a comprehensive peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians fail to recognise both the urgency and the potential of cross-border water cooperation. The bottom line of this Flanking Cooperative Idea is that because water- and sanitation-related issues extend both horizontally across national borders and vertically across various sectors, environmental cooperation can be used to create positive linkages with and spill-overs into other policy fields with the potential to initiate new forms of collaboration in currently deadlocked areas, including the field of disarmament and non-proliferation.
Topic:: International Affairs and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East

213. Two ready to start gradual measures

Author:: Nilsu Gören
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: States in the Middle East/Gulf should consider practical, ready-to-start measures to address the technical and organisational aspects of regional security and bypass the political disagreements on a regional weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone (WMDFZ). Firstly, establishing a comprehensive expert group on the verification of arms control, non-proliferation, and disarmament would increase confidence in the ability to sustain the provisions of a zonal arrangement. Secondly, creating a regional security centre would provide an institutional mechanism that would facilitate the conversation from within the region and enhance cooperation.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

214. A UN Special Envoy to manage the Middle East WMD-Free zone conference process

Author:: Marc Finaud
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In view of the failure of efforts to convene a conference on a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs) in the Middle East (WMD/DVs-free zone), the Arab countries and the Russian Federation proposed that the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General appoint a special representative to lead the preparatory process for the conference. A process facilitated by such a UN envoy would be compatible with consultations among regional states, including Israel, as advocated by the United States (US). Also, it would allow for broad discussions on both the regional security context and disarmament issues. Such a process would also be an opportunity for submitting contributions from nuclear-weapon states, relevant international organisations, and providers of ideas at the Track II level.
Topic:: International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Middle East

215. Bridging the most fundamental gap by simultaneously pursuing disarmament and regional security

Author:: Bernd W. Kubbig
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: This Policy Forum issue summarises the achievements and deficits of the Glion/Geneva informal consultation process and describes the currently held divergent positions of major players. With reference to several necessary conditions for success, the authors make concrete proposals for a compromise-oriented new NPT cycle that does not repeat the mistakes of the past.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

216. Business and Private diplomacy: A potential catalyst for sustainable peace

Author:: Misha Nagelmackers-Voinov
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Long considered a natural partner for peace through economic diplomacy and bilateral trade agreements, business has increasingly become ignored or demonised. The private sector comprises a wide diversity of organisations and is the part of the economy that is not run by a state, but by individuals and companies for profit. Small businesses/micro-companies serve as a good starting point for a conflict resolution process because they often constitute the only form of economic activity in a conflict zone. MNCs have a range of options to respond to conflict, but cannot openly take part in conflict resolution and peacebuilding initiatives, and rarely become involved officially. Track Two diplomacy is their more likely area of involvement. The United Nations has frequently supported the view that the private sector can be a powerful agent of change. However, the UN still engages only two players in conflict resolution and peacebuilding: civil society/NGOs and armed actors. UN peace operations have never been expressly mandated to consult with business or use its influence to build peace. Combining the resources, expertise and leverage of all possible actors would produce a more formidable force for peace. World affairs would benefit from integrating the private sector into a new UN system of governance; new routes are possible for a truly inclusive approach, recognising the business sector’s positive contribution to sustainable peace through informal mediation and collaborative engagement.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. The Libyan political agreement- Time for reconsideration

Author:: Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA)1 also known as the Skhirat Agreement has been bedeviled with significant deficiencies from its onset. In part, it was vouched for irrespective of the fact that necessary domestic support was not garnered pursuant to its approval - vital security sector actors missing at the negotiation table. This Policy Brief discusses how it has failed thus far and gives options for inclusive renegotiations given Libya is at a pivotal point with every action of the UNbacked Government of National Accord (GNA) key going forward in the country’s quest for sustainable peace and unity. The Agreement as it stands is largely not a panacea to any of Libya’s political and security predicaments with the battle against the Islamic State won in Sirte
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Libya

218. The risks and rewards of Israeli-Turkish energy cooperation

Author:: Gabrielle Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The risks and rewards of Israeli-Turkish energy cooperation
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

219. Human Rights and Sustaining Peace

Author:: Aissata Athie and Youssef Mahmoud
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Human rights violations and lack of accountability for such violations are often drivers of conflict. Monitoring human rights, therefore, could provide early warning of and help prevent destabilization of societies. Secretary-General António Guterres alluded to this in his April 2017 address to the Security Council, where he observed that “upholding human rights is a crucial element of prevention,” and “human rights are intrinsically linked to sustaining peace.”
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. Reframing the Protection of Civilians Paradigm for UN Peace Operations

Author:: Namie Di Razza
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since the late 1990s, POC has continuously gained prominence, both as a concept and in practice, and has become the mandated priority for most UN peacekeeping operations. However, while POC has become a centerpiece of peacekeeping for many stakeholders, it has also become diluted as a consensual label used to justify diverse actions and approaches.
Topic:: Peace Studies and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. Applying the HIPPO Recommendations to South Sudan: Toward Strategic, Prioritized, and Sequenced Mandates

Author:: International Peace Institute
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Over the past year, political and military actors and agendas in South Sudan have increasingly fragmented, and the political process has stalled. These developments have undermined the security of civilians, the stability of the country, the humanitarian situation, and the viability of efforts to pursue sustainable peace. The population’s mistrust toward international actors has further curtailed the ability of the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) to implement its mandate.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Sudan

222. The Seventeenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum

Author:: Asia-Pacific Research Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The seventeenth session of the Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum held on June 29, 2017 in Seoul convened senior South Korean and American policymakers, scholars and regional experts to discuss North Korea policy and recent developments on the Korean Peninsula. Hosted by the Sejong Institute in association with the Shorenstein APARC, the forum continued its focus on Northeast Asian regional dynamics, the North Korea problem, and the state of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. The participants engaged in candid, productive discussion about issues relating to these topics.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Korea

223. Analyzing the Structure and Performance of Kim Jong-un's Regime

Author:: Asia-Pacific Research Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: As Kim Jong-un begins his sixth year as leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), it is appropriate to shift the focus from his moves to consolidate power to the impact that the organizational and staffing changes made under his leadership have had on the operations and efficacy of the system he leads. Toward that end, Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Republic of Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) have prepared a joint paper utilizing the complementary resources of both institutions. This paper summarizes the findings and insights from this collaboration. We focus on personnel and organizational changes, and the economic performance of North Korea.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Korea

224. South Korea Votes for Change: What It Means for the United States

Author:: Daniel Sneider
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: President-elect Moon has gained office riding a wave of demand for social justice and a reform of democratic governance in South Korea. These are the issues that are certain to consume his attention and that of voters. U.S. policymakers need to be mindful that the domestic factors that led to this shift in power in South Korea will remain paramount. That said, the return to power of South Korea’s progressives augurs a significant shift in several areas of policy that will have a clear impact on alliance relations with the United States.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

225. Is Brexit an opportunity to reform the European Parliament?

Author:: Robert Kalcik and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Brexit offers a political opportunity for the European Parliament to reform the allocation of seats to member states. This Policy Contribution explores different options for reform and their implications for equality of representation and distribution of seats to countries, within the constraints set by the EU treaties.
Topic:: International Organization, International Affairs, Political Theory, European Union, Democracy, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

226. The US’ special relationships in Europe

Author:: Mikkel Runge Olesen and Matthew Hinds
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump as US president was met with considerable unease in Europe. This has not least been the case among those who, like the UK and Denmark, consider themselves among America’s closest allies. In the policy brief, Matthew Hinds and Mikkel Runge Olesen take stock of the US special relationships in Europe – large and small. In the policy brief they discuss both the classical “Special Relationship” between the US and the UK, as well as the US-Danish relationship, as an example of a small power that has chosen to give the relationship to the superpower premium priority. Hinds and Runge Olesen find that Trump may destabilize relations, but also that he may open up for new opportunities as well – especially for the UK.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Britain, America, and Europe

227. Inequality hampers intelligence gathering in Mali

Author:: Peter Albrecht, Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, and Rikke Haugegaard
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: n 2014, the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) established an intelligence capability that is unprecedented for how peacekeeping operations are organized. An All Sources Information Fusion Unit (ASIFU) was set up to assist MINUSMA in countering asymmetric threats faced by mission personnel and the local population. This policy brief focuses on how inadequate collaboration and lack of trust between European and African forces in the mission impede sharing of intelligence. Insight is provided on why and how the intelligence capability could benefit from the cultural knowledge and language skills of African troops. The policy brief is one of the outputs of a project that has explored the plight of African peacekeepers in MINUSMA. The project is a collaborative effort between DIIS and the Royal Danish Defence College. It is funded by the Danish Ministry of Defence.
Topic:: United Nations, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Mali

228. When Peacekeepers Do Damage: Sexual Exploitation and Abuse in the Democratic Republic Of Congo

Author:: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Thomas Mandrup
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite that South Africa deploys the highest numbers of female soldiers in the United Nations Organisation Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), significant challenges to changing a military culture that tacitly accepts sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) of local populations in the DRC remain. A new DIIS policy brief discusses the measures taken to adress SEA in MONUSCO. In the South African contigent in MONUSCO, 18% of the military personnel are women compared to the average of 3.8% for UN peacekeeping missions. The brief argues that strengthening in-mission gender training and investigtative capacities will be small, yet realistic, steps forward. Furthermore, the UN the should put more pressure on troop contributing countries to hold their defence leadership accountable for effective command and control enforcement. The policy brief is based on a collaborative research between DIIS and the Royal Danish Defence College, RDDC.
Topic:: United Nations, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of the Congo

229. Combating Terrorism and Alleviating Human Suffering in Syria

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In this new Transition 2017 paper, Institute expert Andrew J. Tabler argues that Syria remains de facto partitioned, making the establishment of safe zones in non-Assad-controlled areas the Trump administration's most expedient course of action. Moreover, it would further Washington's cause to drive a wedge into the country's Russia-Iran alliance, and both isolate and pressure the Assad regime. If Washington's objectives in Syria are to defeat U.S.-designated terrorist groups and stem the outflow of refugees, President Bashar al-Assad is under no circumstances the right person to entrust with these missions. Simply in practical terms, he lacks the manpower to retake and hold the two-thirds of Syrian territory outside his control any time soon, despite having sufficient support from Russia and Iran to maintain control in large parts of the country. But more important, Assad is an avowed adversary of the West, undeserving of its cooperation.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil War, International Security, International Affairs, and Neoimperialism
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Iran, and Syria

230. Rebuilding Alliances and Countering Threats in the Gulf

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Trump administration has an opportunity to reset, tighten, and maximize America's strategic relations with the Gulf states. For the United States, expanded security cooperation and coordination could be a force multiplier in campaigns to achieve key policy goals, such as countering Iran's destabilizing policies and defeating the Islamic State. Gulf leaders have expressed optimism over the new administration's gestures, despite its "America First" rhetoric. But the administration also faces challenges, including those brought about by its own emphasis on "radical Islamic terrorism." This two-part Transition 2017 paper, featuring contributions by Gulf experts Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson, navigates the complex U.S.-Gulf relationship. The first essay provides an overview of its basic tenets, stressing the importance of rapport to bilateral ties and discussing key policy priorities. The second essay narrows the focus to the Washington-Riyadh link, the most important U.S. tie with the conservative Gulf. It analyzes differences in viewpoint, policy options, and some anticipated Saudi responses on the core issues of oil, terrorism, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Gulf allies, and the Sunni bloc.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

231. Zombie Nato

Author:: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The cabinet nominations, budget proposals and stepped up force displays of the Trump administration signals a decisive militarization. Even if European NATO members also increase their military muscle, a transatlantic gap on the purpose, language and limits of military power seems looming – not least in the field of counter-terrorism.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

232. The Gulf: An unprecedented crisis and major repercussions

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, in marked succession, cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Within a matter of hours, it became clear that this was not simply a move to sever ties, but a plan for a full embargo, an unprecedented step at a time of peace between these nations. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain blocked flights to Qatar, closed land and sea borders, and ordered Qatari citizens out of their countries while calling on their own nationals to leave Qatar. The same day, Maldives, Mauritius (though it later denied the news), the Libyan Tobruk-based government (which is not recognised internationally), and the Yemeni government based in Riyadh followed suit and cut ties with Qatar, unable to resist Saudi pressure. The next day, Jordan downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar and revoked the licence of Al Jazeera’s bureau in Amman, while Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Mauritius, in an official statement, denied it had cut ties, raising questions of whether some party took the initiative on behalf of the Mauritian government. The actions taken at dawn on 5 June were the culmination of an unprecedented, anti-Qatar media blitz initiated by Emirati, Saudi, Bahraini and Egyptian media on the evening of 23 May. The campaign intensified until it assumed official imprimatur with the decision to cut ties and blockade Qatar. What, then, is happening to relations between countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? After Gulf leaders came together in a scene of friendship, cooperation and solidarity during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, why are relations between three GCC states and Qatar deteriorating so rapidly and in such unprecedented fashion? Was there an immediate cause that spurred Saudi Arabia and its partners to take this stance, or were these actions planned in advance? Is this simply a fleeting crisis in relations between GCC states, or could the break persist?
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

233. A difficult birth: Complexities and prospects for the formation of the Moroccan government

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Abstract It appears from his decision to replace Abdelilah Benkirane with Saadeddine Othmani as head of the government that Moroccan King Mohammed VI does not want to deviate from the requirements of the constitution and democratic methods. He is attempting to use his constitutional powers to find an acceptable solution to end the stalemate and form a government. Othmani has succeeded in reaching a tentative agreement to form the government and is likely to succeed in its formation and leadership. However, he will head a heterogeneous government afflicted by many contradictions, which may implode if it falls under excessive pressure. The government would then be in crisis, which it would have to overcome with a cabinet reshuffle to avoid a complete collapse, especially given the strong position of the king who wants the Justice and Development Party to continue leading the government in future.
Topic:: Democratization, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:: Morocco

234. After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?

Author:: Hugh Stephens
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s arrival has scrambled the cards in the trade policy world. Not only will the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) be reopened with uncertain results, but President Donald Trump has scuttled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by announcing the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement. Canada, originally cool toward the TPP, pushed hard to be included in it. The TPP became the centrepiece of Canada’s Asia trade strategy, notwithstanding some public ambivalence on the part of the Trudeau government. With the TPP in its present form now in limbo, Canada still has options in Asia. First, it can keep an open mind with regard to the possible reconstitution of the TPP in another form, such as “TPP Minus One” (i.e., minus the U.S.). It should also push to reopen the bilateral negotiations with Japan that were suspended when that country joined the TPP negotiations. Canada is already exploring the possibility of an economic partnership agreement with China, perhaps on a sectoral basis, and simultaneously, it should actively pursue negotiation of a free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) community. This could in time provide Canada access to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) currently being negotiated among 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region and would position Canada well in the eventuality that a Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) emerges. In the meantime, uncertainty regarding NAFTA’s future needs to be addressed. This uncertainty makes it more difficult for Canada to attract Asian investment but it also provides further impetus for Canada to diversify its trading relationships and to explore stronger relationships with Asian economies.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Canada and Asia

235. What Should Canada’s Aims be in Any Renegotiation of NAFTA?

Author:: Sarah Goldfeder
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: On Jan. 23, the first Monday after being sworn in as president of the United States, Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that laid the groundwork for exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP was the elegant solution to a host of hold-over irritants from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as well as a way to address wholly new issues of trade and commerce. In the wake of this decision, Trump also promised a wholesale reworking of NAFTA, in which everything would be on the table. In the days since, the Trump trade team has been off to a rocky start. Finally, after months of discussion, the notification incumbent for use of the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) was provided to Congressional leaders on May 18, 2017. Mexico has taken it all in stride, as it took almost immediate advantage of the blusterous U.S. rhetoric to outline its demands for any NAFTA discussion. Canada meanwhile plays the sphinx, open about its willingness to negotiate, but not much else. The U.S. may find that it’s less ready for this round of negotiations than it wanted to be, but its partners are well placed to unite and drive a hard bargain.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Canada and Global Focus

236. “Russian World”: Russia’s Policy towards its Diaspora

Author:: Mikhaïl Souslov
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This paper traces the evolution of the diaspora policies and visions from the early 1990s to the present, and argues that the understanding of Russian “compatriots abroad” has never been the same; rather, it travelled a long road from revanchist irredentism of the red-brown opposition in the 1990s, to the moderately liberal pragmatism of the early 2000s, to the confrontational instrumentalization of Russian “compatriots” as a lever of Russia’s soft power in the late 2000s, and, finally, back to the even more confrontational, irredentist and isolationist visions after the Ukrainian crisis of 2014.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, International Affairs, and Diaspora
Political Geography:: Russia

237. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Regional Geopolitics

Author:: Zahid Hussain
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The CPEC is a nodal part of China’s larger Belt and Road Initiative that envisages connecting China to Europe, the Middle East and Africa. As part of the project, Pakistan welcomes investments worth tens of billions of dollars for infrastructure and power sector development at a time when it desperately needs foreign investment to boost its fledgling economy. The addition of an expected 10,000 MW of electricity to the national grid by end 2018 will help overcome energy shortages and give a major boost to the economy. Similarly, the development of roads and other transport infrastructure will also improve connectivity inside the country as well with other neighboring countries in the future. The connectivity part of the project could actually become a game changer for Pakistan
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and China

238. Minsk-Beijing: What Kind of Strategic Partnership?

Author:: Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Since they signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement in 2013, military-industrial cooperation has intensified, thereby substantiating Belarusian hopes for closer ties with China, which are meant to counterbalance Minsk’s complex relations with Moscow and Brussels. In the eyes of its Chinese partners, however, Belarus seems to enjoy only limited appeal compared with other central and eastern European (CEE) countries, which are more advanced on the road to economic transformation and better integrated into the global system
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

239. Reforming Ukrainian Defense: No Shortage of Challenges

Author:: Isabelle Facon
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Three years after the Euromaidan protests and as the war in the east continues, the government has pursued significant military reforms. Kiev has published new strategic documents which reflect the complexity of the challenges facing Ukrainian national security. Pressure from NATO comes in addition to pressure from civil society, which manifests itself in numerous ways. Nonetheless, military reform in Ukraine is still suffering from a number of constraints related to the amount of resources available, resistance on the part of various national players and conflicts between different institutions.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Ukraine

240. Chinese Investors in Ethiopia: The Perfect Match?

Author:: Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Ethiopia seeks to replicate the experience of East Asian countries such as Taiwan, Malaysia, or China and to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to accelerate the development of its manufacturing capacities (in particular through an ambitious industrial Park – IP - development program and the acceptance of foreign-owned Special Economic Zones - SEZs). On the other hand, China looks to export its development model (including SEZs), to delocalize its most labor-intensive activities, and to promote connectivity between Asia and the African continent. In this context, the Chinese government identified SEZ projects in 19 countries – including one in Ethiopia (the so-called Eastern Industry Zone - EIZ), located in Dukem some 30 kilometers southeast of Addis Ababa. Today, China is by far the leading foreign direct investor in the country. In addition to the Chinese-owned EIZ in Dukem, Chinese investors are also present in privately-run SEZs that are not part of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) strategy, as well as in government-led IPs and outside SEZs or IPs. Lastly Chinese firms are also extremely active in all kinds of infrastructure development thanks to Chinese funds.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Ethiopia

241. Myanmar: Justice sector reform must include local dispute resolution

Author:: Helene Maria Kyed
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In Myanmar, ordinary citizens prefer to have crimes and disputes resolved within their village or neighborhood. There is a clear preference for avoiding conflict escalation, rather than punishing perpetrators. The official courts are seen as places to avoid whenever possible. They are mistrusted, associated with high costs, and many feel intimidated by them due to fear of authority and formality. Reforming the official judiciary is important in Myanmar, but even if the courts functioned according to international standards, there would still be a demand for local forms of dispute resolution focused on reconciliation and negotiated settlements. This is due to culturally and religiously informed perceptions of problems and injustices, related to shame, fate and Buddhist beliefs in past life deeds. This policy brief by Helene Maria Kyed argues that any support to justice sector reform in Myanmar should include already existing local dispute resolution mechanisms and take local perceptions of justice serious, rather than alone focus on the official judiciary and international rule of law principles. It is important to base programming on inclusive dialogues about justice at the local level, and invest in building trust and gaining context-specific knowledge.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Myanmar

242. Rebooting the Franco-German engine: Two post-election scenarios

Author:: Fabrizio Tassinari and Sebastian Tetzlaff
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The election of pro-European Emmanuel Macron as president of France has reignited hopes that the so-called Franco-German engine, providing political impetus to European integration in the past decades, might be revived. While Macron’s election proved a rebuke to the populist challenge, it remains to be seen whether and how it will manage to rebalance the partnership with Berlin, which is overwhelmingly premised on Germany’s growing strength and clout at the European level. While pronouncing herself supportive of the new course in Paris, Chancellor Angela Merkel, like the rest of Europe, remains in a wait-and-see position regarding the ability of President Macron to fulfil his ambitious pro-EU agenda.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

243. What do 'The People' (Still) Want? Conceptions of Democracy. Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 1

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: EU policy towards its Southern Neighbour- hood aims to ensure the security of Member States and is underpinned by an assumption of a shared interest in democracy, security, and prosperity through economic liberalisation. It sees the main way of achieving these aims as promoting Western-style liberal democracy as a political system capable of providing peace and stability. Evidence from public opinion survey research shows this ambition is supported by citizens of Arab countries, where public opinion polls for over a decade report strong support for democracy. However, these citizens do not share the EU’s procedural conception of democracy, a conception in which civil and political rights are decoupled from – and prioritised over – social and economic rights. The Arab Transformations survey carried out in 2014 in six Arab states (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq) suggests few people demanded this brand of democracy. Furthermore, most people thought the EU has not done a good job of supporting transitions to democracy, nor did they have much appetite for EU involvement in the domestic politics of their countries.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, International Affairs, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

244. Perceptions of the EU in MENA Public Opinion. Arab Transformations Policy Brief 2

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The EU views itself as a normative actor and stresses the importance of working in partnership with its Southern Neighbourhood in reaching its intertwined goals of security, stability, inclusive development and shared prosperity, and of strengthening democratisation, human rights and the rule of law across the Mediterranean. The Arab Transformations Project public opinion survey carried out in 2014 in six countries – Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia – sheds some light on this on how citizens viewed the EU and its involvement with their own countries, as well as the extent to which they thought EU policies addressed their concerns.
Topic:: International Affairs and International Development
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

245. Iraq After ISIS: Continued Conflict or Rebuilding Beyond Ethno-Sectarian Identity? Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 7

Author:: Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, and Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: With ISIS' influence declining, Iraq faces the challenge of rebuilding both its economy and its political system. • Amidst the devastation left by conflict, Iraq's political leaders have the opportunity to address the internal divisions which made ISIS possible. • Any post-conflict settlement must take into account the population's concerns and priorities. • Sectarian identity is less influential than commonly assumed in shaping people's political priorities: often more important are local conditions, particularly regarding security, the economy, and migration. • Ignoring popular priorities risks undermining post-ISIS attempts to build a stable country, with knock-on effects at a regional level.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

246. Neighbouring Host-Countries’ Policies for Syrian Refugees: The Cases of Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey

Author:: Luigi Achilli
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The question of how neighbouring countries manage the socioeconomic challenges of incoming Syrian refugees necessitates assessment of the policies developed, over the past few years by the governments of Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, to tackle the embracement strategies and financial challenges, whether through international, humanitarian or bilateral aid or national resources. This paper is composed of three chapters; each dedicated to one of three afore mentioned countries. The status quo is discussed in terms of the latest data on the numbers of Syrians, the financial costs and the apparent socioeconomic implications. How policies are developed and financed by these neighbouring host countries, and what lessons and recommendations can be drawn from this analysis of policies and their financing is also evaluated.
Topic:: International Affairs and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Syria

247. Reviewing the European Neighbourhood Policy

Author:: Selena Florensa
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This paper is dedicated to answer the Joint Consultation Paper on the ENP review and it refers to the methodological support of an early exercise of the 6th Euromed Survey carried out among EuroMeSCo network experts. With the aim of giving a consistent structure to the many issues addressed by the Joint Consultation Paper, this study was divided into three main chapters. The first chapter tackles the redefinition of the ENP policy framework, which is vital in order to build an instrument coherent with reality, especially in what concerns the geographical scope of the policy, the actors and interlocutors it has to involve and the balance between interests and values. The second chapter is methodological and targets several flaws of the current policy arrangement and tools, while it proposes substantial and detailed changes for a more effective policy through the definition of priority policy areas and the combination of different tools. In the last chapter, key strategic issues on the outset and implementation of the ENP are addressed: a better coordination between Members States and the European Union and between the EEAS and the European Commission is of paramount importance in order to ensure the functioning of the policy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

248. When Turnbull meets Trump

Author:: Alan Dupont
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s first face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump is an opportunity to deliver some key messages about the role the United States should play globally and in Asia.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

249. The shape of Australia’s future engagement with the United Nations

Author:: Peter Nadin
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia should strengthen its engagement with the United Nations to ensure it has a greater voice on global issues that matter to its national interests
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. Freeing the “Rice Bowl of Asia”: How Changing Patterns of Interdependence are Driving Political Change in Myanmar

Author:: Alex Ripley
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: Wedged between Southeast Asia, China, and the Indian subcontinent, Myanmar occupies a strategically important space which will ensure its relevance to some of the 21st century’s most significant questions, including those surrounding trade routes, energy security, and the competing geopolitical ambitions of Asia’s great powers. Exciting and important changes are underway in Myanmar. After decades of isolation under military governments, the country is taking convincing steps toward democratization. The junta relinquished much of its power in 2010. In 2011, the unpopular Myitsone hydroelectric project was suspended, suggesting a new sensitivity to public opinion. Beginning that year, a nominally civilian government led by Thein Sein (a former Tatmadaw general) embarked on a series of major political and economic reforms. These culminated in the relatively open 2015 elections, in which the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD)—the party of Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi—won overwhelming majorities of both houses of parliament. In March 2016, parliament elected Htin Kyaw as the country’s first civilian president in half a century. What explains Myanmar’s relatively rapid transition from authoritarian pariah to fragile democracy? Perhaps international pressure forced the hand of the regime; then again, the West imposed sanctions on Myanmar for years before the military’s grip on power began to loosen. Lee Jones argues that the junta simply liberalized when its objectives were achieved.
Topic:: International Affairs, Military Affairs, Elections, Democracy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

251. Understanding the grant approval process

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI), in partnership with the World Bank Group (WBG), awards grants through the Development Marketplace Awards for innovative research on how to improve responses to and prevent gender-based violence – a severe and neglected problem affecting more than one in three women worldwide and a major challenge for global development. These grants range from $40 000 to $100 000 over a two-year period
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

252. Preventing risky behaviours among adolescents in conflict-affected communities.

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: The eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is slowly rebuilding after more than 20 years of conflict. Because of the prolonged conflict, adolescents living in rural areas are particularly vulnerable to risky behaviour, such as drinking alcohol and using violence. This study builds on a successful partnership with PAIDEK, an established Congolese microfinance organisation, to examine locals’ perceptions of youth engagement in alcohol consumption and violence, and the consequences of these behaviours
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of Congo

253. Does education affect women’s likelihood of experiencing sexual and intimate partner violence?

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Global levels of gender-based violence, occurring at all socioeconomic levels, are unacceptably high. However, existing evidence that education can protect against gender-based violence, largely observational in nature, is mixed. A better understanding of the causal link between education and reduced risk of gender-based violence is important to inform the design of promising interventions in this area
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

254. Assessing the effectiveness of the Together to End Violence Against Women programme in reducing intimate partner violence.

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Gender-based violence is widespread in Tanzania: 44 percent of married women have experienced physical and/or sexual violence from partners. To date, research on intimate partner violence has been limited, especially on the effectiveness of prevention efforts that target structural drivers of this type of violence in low- and middle-income countries.
Topic:: International Affairs and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:: Tanzania

255. The Sexual Violence Research Initiative Forum

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) – a global network of more than 5 000 members – promotes research on sexual and other forms of violence against women and children in low and middle-income countries to influence policy and practice. It does this by gathering and sharing information, funding research, building capacity through various workshops and events, and holding the SVRI Forum every two years. The SVRI Forum is a vibrant, informative and safe space for researchers, civil society, policy-makers, donors and others to share and learn about research, developments and innovations in the field of gender-based violence. It is the largest conference dedicated to research on prevention of and responses to violence against women and children.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

256. Can targeting men reduce intimate partner violence?

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Violence against women is widespread in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): nearly one in four women has experienced conflict-related sexual violence and nearly two-thirds have experienced violence from a male partner.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of Congo

257. Improving children’s cognitive and socio-emotional development through book-sharing.

Author:: SVRI
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Poverty places children at risk of not achieving their developmental potential. Factors such as lack of cognitive stimulation, harsh parenting practices and aggression in early childhood hinder development and may result in future violent behaviour. Interventions that target the intersection between early childhood development, parenting and early violence prevention are needed to address these problems.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

258. Dispelling the Myth that Israel Is the Largest Beneficiary of US Military Aid

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many American detractors of Israel begin by citing that Israel receives the lion’s share of US military aid. The very suggestion conjures the demon of an all-powerful Israel lobby that has turned the US Congress into its pawn. But these figures, while reflecting official direct US military aid, are almost meaningless in comparison to the real costs and benefits of US military aid – above all, American boots on the ground. In reality, Israel receives only a small fraction of American military aid, and most of that was spent in the US to the benefit of the American economy
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

259. Taiwan's All-Volunteer Force and Military Transformation

Author:: Dee Wu
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: This publication makes the case for a Taiwanese All-Volunteer Force (AVF) military in order to transform it into a more capable combat force. Wu analyzes the Tsai administrations’ defense strategy and concludes that the implementation of an all-volunteer force is in line with Taiwan’s interests to enhance its projection capabilities to attack, disrupt, and even defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) far outside of the island
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Taiwan

260. Red Drones Over Disputed Seas

Author:: Project 2029 Institute
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: This publication lays out a field guide for the sailors and pilots operating in the disputed areas of the East and South China Seas. The guide examines four Chinese aerial drone models: S-100, ASN-209, BZK-005, and GJ-1, including tips on how to identify them, and where they could be seen operating in the East and South China Seas. The intent is to jumpstart a conversation on how militaries and law enforcement agencies should prepare their personnel to deal with potentially hostile aerial drones, armed or otherwise, operating in disputed areas in their maritime neighborhood
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

261. Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right

Author:: Cory Gardner
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of our Futuregram, “Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right.” Senator Cory Gardner [R-CO], Chairman of the Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, assesses the need for a long-term strategy in regards to the U.S.-China relationship. In addition, he details new legislation called the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), an approach that will put American interests first by reassuring our allies, deterring our adversaries, and securing U.S. leadership in the region for future generations.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

262. The Nature of China’s Rise and Why It Matters to the U.S. and Japan: A Japanese Perspective

Author:: Hiroko Maeda
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: China’s military buildup has shaken regional stability and poses a challenge to the U.S.-Japan alliance. This study examines China’s security challenges, as well as Japan’s response in a series of national security policy reforms. In light of China’s increasing assertiveness, the U.S. and Japan need more consultations and should share a strategy for maintaining peace and stability in the region. In particular, the study identifies cybersecurity and maritime capacity building in ASEAN as key areas where the U.S. and Japan can cooperate to establish a rules based order in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

263. Developments in China’s Conventional Precision Strike Capabilities

Author:: Akira Marusaki
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Among the range of PLA capabilities undergoing modernization, this study focuses on conventional precision strike capability. In order to address the questions of how and why the PRC has been striving to improve this capability, this study will first illustrate the development of three weapon systems: the conventional ballistic missile, the anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), and the land attack cruise missile (LACM). It will then analyze the reason why the PRC has developed these capabilities, casting a spotlight on historical and strategic backgrounds, in particular the end of Cold War, the 1990 Gulf War, and the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 to 1996. This study concludes by pointing to future developments in China’s conventional precision strike capabilities, drawing attention to reconnaissance capabilities.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

264. China’s Future SSBN Command and Control Structure

Author:: David C. Logan
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is developing its first credible sea-based nuclear forces. This emergent nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force will pose unique challenges to a country that has favored tightly centralized control over its nuclear deterrent. The choices China makes about SSBN command and control will have important implications for strategic stability. Despite claims that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force will be responsible for all Chinese nuclear forces, Chinese SSBNs currently appear to be under the control of the PLA Navy. However, China may choose to revise its command and control structures as its SSBNs begin armed deterrent patrols. There are three broad command and control models, allocating varying degrees of authority to the PLA Navy or the Rocket Force. China’s decisions about SSBN command and control will be mediated by operational, bureaucratic, and political considerations. A hybrid approach to command and control, with authority divided between the navy and the Rocket Force, would be most conducive to supporting strategic stability.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

265. Cross-Functional Teams in Defense Reform: Help or Hindrance?

Author:: Christopher J. Lamb
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: There is strong bipartisan support for Section 941 of the Senate’s version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2017, which requires the Pentagon to use cross-functional teams (CFTs). CFTs are a popular organizational construct with a reputation for delivering better and faster solutions for complex and rapidly evolving problems. The Department of Defense reaction to the bill has been strongly negative. Senior officials argue that Section 941 would “undermine the authority of the Secretary, add bureaucracy, and confuse lines of responsibility.” The Senate’s and Pentagon’s diametrically opposed positions on the value of CFTs can be partially reconciled with a better understanding of what CFTs are, how cross-functional groups have performed to date in the Pentagon, and their prerequisites for success. This paper argues there is strong evidence that CFTs could provide impressive benefits if the teams were conceived and employed correctly.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

266. Will Technological Convergence Reverse Globalization?

Author:: T. X. Hammes
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Numerous trends are slowing, and may even be reversing, globalization over the next decade or two. Manufacturing and services, driven by new technologies, are trending toward local production. For economic, technical, and environmental reasons, new energy production is now dominated by local sources—solar, wind, hydro, and fracked natural gas. To meet an increasing demand for fresh, organic foods, firms are establishing indoor farms in cities across the developed world to grow and sell food locally. Recent trade flow statistics indicate these factors have already slowed globalization. Technological and social developments will accelerate these inhibiting trends. Voters in the United States and Europe are increasingly angry over international trade. Prospects for passage of major trade agreements are dim.Authoritarian states, particularly China and Russia, are balkanizing the Internet to restrict access to information.Technological advances are raising the cost of overseas intervention while deglobalization is reducing its incentives. This paper argues that deglobalization would have momentous security implications. Accordingly, deglobalization must be monitored closely and if the trend continues,U.S. leaders will need to consider restructuring organizations, alliances,and national security strategy
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

267. Reflections on U.S.-Cuba Military-to-Military Contacts

Author:: Hal Klepak
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: President Barack Obama’s visit to Cuba in March 2016 opened up the possibility of strategic benefits for both nations. Well after over 50 years of hostility, however, it will not be easy to keep this nascent relationship on track. Avoiding missteps requires a deep knowledge of Cuba and particularly its Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias, or FAR). The FAR are a complex and powerful institution that enjoys great public respect—more so than Cuba's Communist Party—and remain central to the functioning of the Cuban economy and state. Broadening rapprochement without the support of the FAR is inconceivable. To build on the historic opening in diplomatic relations, both sides need a better appreciation of the other’s institutional norms and some clear "rules of the road" to guide the relationship. This paper offers insights concerning the FAR. It argues that it will be important to expand cooperation in the right areas and that it will be important to start small, go slow, build trust, consult early and often, let Cuba take the lead, and avoid imposing or reflecting a U.S.-centric view of civil-military relations.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

268. Supporting Democracy in Erdoǧan’s Turkey: The Role of Think Tanks

Author:: Richard H.M Outzen and Ryan Schwing
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Fifteen years into the era of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, U.S. influence on his inner circle and support base, the new generation of Turkish strategic thinkers, and the Turkish public at large has diminished rather than improved. American Turkey watchers have grown frustrated with perceived divergence of interests, values, and agendas. A growing number consider Erdoğan and his inner circle autocratic, difficult, ideologically extreme, and dangerous.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

269. China's Goldwater-Nichols? Assessing PLA Organizational Reforms

Author:: Philip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undertaking its most significant restructuring since 1949, including changes to all of the PLA’s main organizational pillars—the Central Military Commission, services, and theaters. The reforms are modeled partly on the U.S. military structure, where combatant commanders lead operations and the services train and equip troops. However, the PLA remains a Leninist military responsible for defending Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. The reforms aim to tighten CCP supervision over a force seen as corrupt and unaccountable and to enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations across multiple domains. Theater commanders will be able to develop force packages drawn from all the services, and a new Strategic Support Force will provide C4ISR support. The reforms will create a short term organizational disruption, but may enable more effective joint war fighting over the long term. The PLA will have to overcome significant obstacles such as continued ground force dominance and inter-service rivalry to make the reforms succeed.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

270. National Security Reform and the 2016 Election

Author:: Christopher J. Lamb and Joseph C Bond
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Over the past 20 years, there has been a sea change in senior leader views on national security reform from skepticism to support. Nine major studies argue the national security system cannot generate or integrate the capabilities needed to manage security problems well. The system is “broken.” Yet there are major obstacles to reform. Inexperienced U.S. Presidents discover system limitations too late, when it is politically difficult to correct them; experts who have not studied system behaviors underestimate their liabilities; and leaders in the Department of Defense are more likely to favor reform than their counterparts in other departments, which creates a bureaucratic backlash against reform. However, two key prerequisites for success are in place: galvanizing cases of unsustainable performance, and in-depth problem analysis that reveals the origins of the same. A third prerequisite is committed leadership. With that in mind, the authors identify several reasons why Presidential candidates should embrace national security reform during the 2016 campaign.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

271. Posing Problems without an Alliance: China-Iran Relations after the Nuclear Deal

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is poised to increase economic and diplomatic cooperation with Iran as a result of sanctions relief under the recent Iran nuclear deal, though a close geopolitical alignment between the two states is unlikely. Sino-Iranian relations will remain limited by several enduring constraints, including China’s desire for positive ties with other states, its pursuit of energy diversification, and its need for regional stability. Renewed Chinese arms sales to Iran could constitute an emerging challenge for the United States. This could increase Iran’s antiaccess/ area-denial threat to U.S. military forces and create proliferation risks. U.S. officials should press Chinese interlocutors to avoid exporting advanced weapons, which could embolden Iran to conduct a more brazen foreign policy that would threaten China’s fundamental need for regional stability
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Iran

272. Korean Unification and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:: David F. Helvey
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Unification of the Korean Peninsula would remove the primary threat that has animated the U.S.–Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance for over 60 years, but it need not require termination of the alliance. An alliance between the United States and a unified Korea would, at a macro level, reinforce the international liberal democratic order. At a micro level, it could help ensure security on the Korean Peninsula during the process of integrating the North, assist in the defense of Korea, and serve as a platform for multilateral security cooperation. A future alliance should be a part of planning for Korean unification and should consider the purpose of the alliance, its roles and missions, coordinating structures, and presence (if any) of U.S. troops. It should also include diplomatic efforts to assure China, Russia, and Japan that a future alliance would respect sovereignty and support stability. A reconfigured alliance should reflect greater equality between the United States and a unified Korea to ensure its political sustainability in both capitals. Planning for a future alliance must not erode the critical functions of deterrence that the alliance performs today
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Korea

273. Demonetisation and Beyond: Addressing the Finance of Terrorism

Author:: Vivek Chadha
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: The impact of the demonetisation policy as related to curbing the finance of terrorism announced on November 08, 2016, is gradually emerging from the shadow of its surprise announcement. It is becoming abundantly clear that this is unlikely to remain a one off decision taken in isolation and will in all probability be accompanied by additional measures against the financing of terrorism and corruption. Even as the rollout takes place, it provides an opportunity to assess its potential fallout in the mid and long term, as also possible future options available to the government to further build upon the ongoing initiative.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

274. Beyond Cartographic Assertion: A Roadmap on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir

Author:: Priyanka Singh
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: Most of India’s geopolitical vexations stem from a contested northern periphery, entailing disputes born either in the aftermath of independence or inherited from British rule. Principal among these is the region of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Soon after independence, a huge portion of J&K’s territory was bifurcated from the rest of the princely state as a result of the Pakistan-aided assault conducted in these regions during 1947-48. Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) refers to those parts of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) that continue to be under Pakistan’s control. It comprises the so-called ‘Azad’ Jammu and Kashmir (‘AJK’), and Gilgit Baltistan, which latter was referred to as the Northern Areas by the government of Pakistan until 2009. India stakes a claim on these territories by virtue of the Instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh on 26 October 1947.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

275. Karbi Insurgency in Assam: The Way Forward

Author:: Sushil Kumar Sharma
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: Earlier this year, the Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers (KPLT) issued a threat to the local media after journalists at a meeting in Diphu Press Club unanimously decided not to publish the outfit’s calls for bandh against the assembly election scheduled in the district on April 04, 2016.1 In fact, just two days before the election, two KPLT militants were killed in an encounter with security forces in Karbi Anglong. Over the years, insurgency has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the district compared to the rest of the state. Development projects in the district have long been hampered by abductions and demands for extortion money by the insurgents.2 While most of the local insurgent groups have come under the ceasefire agreement, the KPLT continues to pose threat to security and development in the Karbi Anglong region. Apart from KPLT, the Naga Rengma Hills Protection Force (NRHPF) and the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA) are also active in the area.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: India

276. The SCO: India enters Eurasia

Author:: P. Stobdan
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: The Foreign Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have recently finalised the draft agenda for the next Summit of the grouping to be held in Tashkent on June 23-24. Among other things, they adopted a procedure document for accession of India (and Pakistan) into the SCO. Originated in 1996 as “Shanghai-5” to build confidence building measures along the Sino-Central Asian frontier, the SCO became a full-fledged grouping in 2011 with a broader charter for anchoring Eurasian political, economic and military affairs. While SCO was initially an exclusive club comprising of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, other countries – India, Mongolia, Iran, and Pakistan – joined in 2005 as Observer states.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

277. The Juncker Plan 2.0 : the Belgian view

Author:: Fabian Willermain and Quentin Genard
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A few weeks after the presentation by the European Commission of ‘Juncker Plan 2.0’, it is high time to look back at what has so far been achieved by the earlier version of the Juncker Plan – and how well it has worked for Belgium.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

278. Plan B after Brexit – What Britain can expect negotiating a Swiss-type arrangement with the EU

Author:: Jacqueline Breidlid and Cenni Najy
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: For those wishing to see the UK exit from the EU, Switzerland has become a poster child, an example of how a country outside the EU can retain access to the EU’s internal market, thereby flourishing economically, and yet retaining its sovereignty and independence. But can a similar arrangement to that of Switzerland really provide a suitable alternative – a “Plan B” – for the UK’s relationship with the EU? With the referendum providing potential exit for the UK from the EU rapidly approaching, a Swiss-type plan B deserves some serious consideration. This paper examines the central claims made by those who see Switzerland as a model for the UK’s future relationship with the EU and argues that the Swiss model is no Holy Grail for the UK.
Topic:: International Affairs and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

279. Forgotten lessons for the Eurozone

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A Monetary Union is one where there is a single fiat currency with a single monetary authority (a central bank). It also has a single interest and exchange rate, and a single legal entity responsible for issuing that currency across a geographic area. This combination of features required for a true monetary union suggests that many previous monetary unions, including the Latin Monetary Union (LMU) and the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU) were not proper monetary unions as such, while the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) was and the Eurozone is.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

280. The rise of single motherhood in the EU: analysis and propositions

Author:: Sophie Heine
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This paper will address a rising issue within the EU – the increase of single parent families. Firstly, we will draw a general picture of the disadvantages faced by single parents and outline the possible causes of this phenomenon. Secondly, we will attempt to sketch possible alternative solutions that could inspire policymakers at the national and European levels. Both in our analysis and recommendations, we will put a particular emphasis on the dynamic role played by norms and representations.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

281. How can we enhance our security without damaging our liberty?

Author:: Sophie Heine
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: How can we reinforce internal security without destroying basic freedoms? This dilemma will become increasingly topical in the context of rising terrorist threats and in view of some of the responses already put in place at the national level. Many observers have pointed out the threat that these measures pose to individual freedom. But few have highlighted their relative inefficiency. Indeed, if the right to security is one of the founding reasons for political government and one of its main sources of legitimacy, can states still guarantee this basic right? This article examines this dilemma and focuses more specifically on its implications for the notion and practice of sovereignty. It also sketches a strong, but nuanced, rescue of sovereignty at the European level in order to assure individual security while, at the same time, protecting our freedoms.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

282. Space for Local Content Policies and Strategies

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: This paper explores both the role that local content measures can play in advancing sustainable development, and the impact that trade and investment treaties concluded over the past 20 years have had and will continue to have on the ability of governments to employ those tools. Certain local content measures had been restricted under the WTO due to wide agreement by negotiating parties that their costs outweigh their benefits. But the WTO also left a number of local content measures in governments’ policy toolboxes. As is discussed in this paper, however, that is changing, with the range of permissible actions for many countries being significantly smaller than it was even a decade ago. This narrowed policy space, in turn, can limit the steps governments can take to make progress on the universally adopted Sustainable Development Goals.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. Employment from Mining and Agricultural Investments: How Much Myth, How Much Reality?

Author:: Kaitlin Y. Cordes, Olle Östensson, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Employment creation is often seen as a key benefit of investment in natural resources. However, this benefit sometimes falls short: job estimates may be inflated, governmental policies may fail to maximize employment generation, and, in some cases, investments may lead to net livelihood losses. A more thorough examination of employment tied to mining and agricultural investments is thus useful for assessing whether and how employment from natural resource investments contributes to sustainable economic development—a particularly timely topic as countries consider how they will achieve the Sustainable Development Goals adopted in 2015.
Topic:: Agriculture, International Affairs, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

284. Czech-German Relations: A Dialogue in Place of Strategy, in Hope of Strategy and in Need of Strategy

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The Czech-German Strategic Dialogue has been hailed as a significant upgrading of relations between the two countries. However, while it holds great potential, the dialogue mainly covers practical or tactical cooperation and is currently lacking in real strategic content. This deficit reflects a wider lack of strategic convergence between the partners and requires political, rather than bureaucratic action to address it. Doing so will require a larger shift in foreign policy thinking and action, particularly on the Czech side," writes Benjamin Tallis in his newest policy paper
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

285. Migration: A Crisis Europe Can’t Keep Out

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: Difficulties in persuading EU Member States (EUMS) to act in solidarity with each other – or with refugees – have led to a focus on the ‘external dimensions’ of the migration crisis. This has created a misleading impression of the crisis as external to, rather created by, the EU and EUMS. Equally misleadingly, this framing suggests that the crisis can be dealt with outside, rather within the EU – generally by trying to stop the flow of migrants to Europe. This policy paper challenges this framing and argues that the migration crisis is one of Europe’s own making – and one which must be addressed, primarily, at home," writes Benjamin Tallis in his new policy paper on migration.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

286. The Use of Force Against the Islamic State

Author:: Tamás Lattmann and Veronika Bílková
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The Islamic State (IS) must not be recognized as a State. It is an illegitimate non-state actor engaged in serious violations of international law. The use of force against the IS does not have a uniform legal basis. Some of the related actions can be justified on the grounds of the consent of the territorial State (this is the case with the US in Iraq, and Russia in Syria). The legality of other actions against the IS (those of Turkey in Iraq, and of the US in Syria) remains doubtful. The IS is likely to be defeated in the upcoming months. The situation does not require a more active engagement by the Czech Republic beyond what it is already doing (provision of weapons, training of armed and police personnel, etc.).
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

287. Czech Strategic Partnerships: A Practice in Need of a Vision

Author:: Michal Šimečka and Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The concept of a strategic partnership is gaining prominence in Czech diplomatic practice, but its meaning and implications remain inadequately understood. The policy paper seeks to redress the situation by unpacking the concept and building a framework for understanding strategic partnerships in the Czech context. It argues that while it is not necessary to construct a rigorous definition, more coherence and clarity is needed for strategic partnerships to serve as a meaningful instrument of Czech foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

288. Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Author:: Miroslav Tuma
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The 9th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held from 27 April to 22 May 2015 at the UN Headquarters in New York, but it failed. The Czech Republic should engage in urging other countries to achieve progress in nuclear disarmament through a compromise approach known as “the building blocks”. In parallel, it should also actively support the process of emphasizing the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the Czech Republic’s good relations with Israel should focus on the support for holding a Middle East conference on the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, a project enjoying long-term EU support. It would also be desirable for the Czech Republic to continue with its strong support for the achievement of the NPT’s universality, the early entry of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty into force and the start of a substantive debate about the main points at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

289. Governance, Accountability, and Security in Nigeria

Author:: Oluwakemi Okenyodo
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As in much of Africa, the vast majority of security threats facing Nigeria are internal, often involving irregular forces such as insurgents, criminal gangs, and violent religious extremists. Effectively combating such threats requires cooperation from local communities—cooperation limited by low levels of trust in security forces who often have reputations for corruption, heavy-handedness, and politicization. Tackling modern security threats, then, is directly tied with improving the governance and oversight of the security sector, especially the police. Key paths forward include clarifying the structure of command and oversight, strengthening merit-based hiring and promotion processes, and better regulating private and voluntary security providers.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:: Nigeria

290. Survival of the fittest: Trump’s not-so-simple nationalism

Author:: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
Topic:: International Relations, Nationalism, International Affairs, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: America and Global Focus

291. NEIGHBOURING AN UNPREDICTABLE RUSSIA Implications for Finland

Author:: Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia has perceived itself as a great power and has sought international acknowledgement of its status for years. The fact that Moscow regards the post-Soviet space as its sphere of ‘privileged interests’ and the sovereignty of the other post-Soviet states as subordinate to Russia’s national interests is nothing new. Likewise, Russia has persistently objected to the dominant role played by the US in world politics, and the enlargement of NATO. It has attempted to influence the security policy orientation and political choices made by post-Soviet states, and other states neighbouring Russia, such as Finland. These goals are well-established and are likely to remain fundamentally un- changed for years to come.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Finland

292. The Role of the European Parliament: Between External and Internal Challenges

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As a result of the Spitzenkandidaten process, the relationship between the European Parliament and the European Commission – and particularly their leaders – has strengthened. This inter- institutional connection also has a party-political dimension, being intrinsically linked to the emergence of a ‘grand coalition’ between the two biggest groups of the EP. However, in an EU beset by crises, the political agenda is firmly under the control of the member states and the European Council, which makes it difficult for the EP to take advantage of its closer relationship with the Commission, as the latter acts very cautiously.
Topic:: International Organization, International Affairs, Democracy, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe

293. Russia's 2016 Duma Elections: Ambiguous triumph and new challenges for the regime

Author:: Kirill Rogov
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The recent 2016 Duma elections were planned by the Kremlin to attest to the fact that the period of troubled political development – which began during the previous 2011 Duma elections – is over. Further, the elections served to test Putin’s consolidated authoritarianism on the eve of the forthcoming presidential elections in 2018. While successful in terms of preserving full control over the new Duma, the election results nevertheless demonstrated that the patriotic enthusiasm evoked by the annexation of Crimea has largely been exhausted. The pressure on the opposition, new electoral rules and reliance on regions with so-called “administrative voting” secured a victory for the party of power, but in urban regions the turnout was very low and voting for the Kremlin’s party did not differ much from 2011 patterns. Although the direct effect of the economic crisis on people’s political attitudes is still moderate, the continued long-term stagnation in the Russian economy that started even before the fall in energy prices remains the major challenge for regime stability. Ambiguous election results force the Kremlin to seek new instruments of political consolidation. The Kremlin’s most probable strategy may be to combine toughening authoritarian institutions with maintaining high tension in the international arena in order to prolong the ‘rally around the flag’ effect domestically, by attempting or promising “authoritarian modernization” to gain support in urban regions. As the presidential election date approaches, both Putin’s foreign and economic policies could become even riskier than they have been to date.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Political Economy, International Affairs, Elections, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia

294. Election Hacking in Democracies: The example of the U.S. 2016 elections

Author:: Mika Aaltola and Mariita Mattiisen
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The US, as a highly digitalized state, depends on different cyber platforms for election campaigning, political discussions, forming popular opinions, and – in some cases – the voting process itself. Geopolitically motivated election hacking can aim to influence the direction of foreign policy debates, to promote/demote candidate(s), and to instigate disruptions, suspicions, and distrust towards the election process or the democratic system. The strategic aim to lower democratic appeal and increase the attraction of autocratic "stability”. A state sponsor of hacking can demonstrate that it has sophisticated cyber capabilities, thereby promoting its own major power standing. Even if its efforts raise suspicions, it gains visibility, as its efforts are discussed in the media and it manages to insert itself into the election discussions. The state sponsor can subtly promote the images of its own type of political system as being comparatively more resilient and stable than the US democratic system. The relative success of the election hacking targeting the US might motivate scaling up the intensity and scope of similar operations in future democratic elections. At a minimum, the election hacking incidents point to a scenario that has to be taken seriously.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: America

295. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES EU Strategy and European Defence What Level of Ambition?

Author:: Luis Simon
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The global proliferation of precision-strike systems and the concomitant emergence of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities challenges the foundations of Western global military-technological supremacy. What does this mean for current EU debates on military ambition? This policy brief argues that the assumption of the freedom of (military) access and movement, which has guided European strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War, is no longer valid. Europeans should get to grips with the new military-strategic paradigm and translate this into an updated ambition level and related capabilities.
Topic:: International Affairs, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

296. European defence core groups

Author:: Margriet Drent, Anne Bakker, and Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The why, what & how of permanent structured cooperation The deteriorating security situation around Europe and the burgeoning messages from Washington that Europe has to take more responsibility for its own security call for a step change in European defence cooperation. So far, progress has been too slow. This policy brief argues that permanent structured cooperation (Pesco) offers the option to take a more ambitious and more productive route by member states willing to move forward more quickly, set more demanding objectives and commit themselves more strongly. This would end the well-known ‘voluntary basis’ which has often been used as an excuse for doing little or nothing at all.
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, International Security, International Affairs, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: America and European Union

297. Major developments in the US and China and US-China Relations Amidst Turmoil in the International Order (US-China Project)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

298. Sub-project I. Domestic factors influencing US foreign policy (US Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: With President Obama’s second term coming to an end, 2016 will mark a major turning point for US politics and foreign policy. Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate since the 2014 mid-term elections have made the Obama administration a “lame duck” but, with no concerns about re-election, the administration is now using its “free hand” to issue executive orders and exercise presidential authority for the sake of “legacy building” through, say, revisions to the Immigration Act and normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

299. Sub-project II: China’s Domestic Situation and Foreign Policy (China Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Among the most significant variables defining trends in the international order and the international environment surrounding Japan are domestic circumstances in China and its foreign policies prescribed by them. China ranks highest among the emerging powers that have rapidly increased their presence within the international community over a short period and is, from Japan’s standpoint, simultaneously a real threat to Japanese security in the East China Sea and Japan’s largest trading partner.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

300. Sub-project III: US-China Relations and International Relations Involving the US and China (US-China Relations Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Two of the most important variables influencing trends within the international order are the domestic circumstances within the US and China and the foreign policy shifts stemming therefrom. An element of equal or perhaps even greater significance is the nature of relations between these two major powers.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS