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1502. Euro-Focus, September 11, One Year Later A Fading Transatlantic Partnership?
- Author:
- Simon Serfaty
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- One year ago, the two summits scheduled by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) for the end of 2002 were expected to start the final phase of the Euro-Atlantic vision: two institutions with overlapping sets of members engaged in missions that might not always be pursued in common but would always remain compatible in their goals and complementary in their methods. Instead, as the year has unfolded since September 11, that vision has become increasingly blurred. Now, there is a sense that the two sides of the Atlantic are drifting away from the lofty goals they set after World War II and during the Cold War, and sought to reassert after the Cold War. The relationship is not only said to be lacking coherence; it is also said to be losing its necessity, as Americans and Europeans no longer share values or even interests—and, even when they do, lose their commonalities in the increasing capabilities gap that divides them.
- Topic:
- NATO, Cold War, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1503. Chirac's Blind Date with History
- Author:
- Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, Pierre Messerlin, and Chris Wiley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The French elections held during the past eight weeks—first for the presidency and then for the National Assembly—were the most significant elections held in France since 1981. On the whole, their outcome is good for France, for Europe, and for the United States. They restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under the strained conditions of political cohabitation (1993–1995 and 1997–2002). Moreover, by renewing the primacy of the French presidency, these elections enable Jacques Chirac to assert his leadership during the decisive years that loom ahead for the European Union (EU), as well as for its relations with the United States within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finally, these elections also confirm Europe's political drift to a center-right that the elections in Germany scheduled for September 23 are likely to make complete (Euro-Focus, September 15, 2002).
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and France
1504. Taxing Decisions for Europe
- Author:
- Jennifer Lee, Simon Serfaty, and Christina V. Balis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the target date for the completion of the European internal market, much remains to be desired in the area of common policies. The absence of a coherent EU tax policy, in particular, has been a continued obstacle. Yet, with the introduction of the euro and in view of the EU's anticipated enlargement (Euro-Focus, January 9, 2002), the timeline for addressing these deficiencies is shortening.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1505. Bigger Europe, Smaller Agenda
- Author:
- Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, George Handy, and Georgeta Pourchot
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- “More Europe in every area” may sound like an ill-chosen motto for a six-month presidency facing an already demanding and inflated agenda. It is reflective of a concern, however, not to expand the current list of priorities to new initiatives that would risk the fate of past abortive attempts. Avoiding new confrontations, while ensuring the smooth pursuit of ongoing reforms, has become Spain's principal goal during its presidency in the first half of 2002.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
1506. The Year of Enlargement
- Author:
- Simon Serfaty and Christina V. Balis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Preparations for EU enlargement, combined with more of the unfolding debate on the constitutional future of Europe, will dominate Europe's institutional agenda in 2002. The three Baltic countries and all four countries in central Europe, plus Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus should be able to conclude their bilateral access negotiations by December 2002, and even, in a few cases, on time for the European Council of June 21–22, in Seville, Spain. Expect, therefore, the enlargement of the EU to 25 members—one that might start as early as January 2004 and end, possibly, no later than June 30, 2007. What follows is a 17-step primer on the process and pattern, the various timetables, and the possible outcomes of an enlargement that will begin to emerge, at last, in 2002.
- Topic:
- NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and France
1507. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2002
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in December.After declining from May through September 2002, the leading index has now improved for three straight months, suggesting a stronger economic recovery in the first half of 2003.The negative contribution from unemployment insurance claims in December was more than offset by the positive contributions from housing permits, average manufacturing workweek, and consumer expectations. The leading index has almost regained its level in May 2002, or when it started to decline.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was flat in each of the last three months of 2002. But it\'s still 0.8 percent above its cyclical low reached in November 2001.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1508. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2002
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.7 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in November.This month's gain in the leading index is the largest since December of last year. With this increase, the index has now recovered its losses since May 2002, and is nearly 3.6 percent above its most recent trough in March 2001.Strength in the financial sector - coupled with a rebound in consumer expectations and a decline in unemployment insurance claims - contributed to the increase in the leading index this month.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased modestly in November. Despite this increase, the coincident index remains essentially flat since July 2002, reflecting a sluggish recovery from the last recession.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1509. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2002
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading, coincident and lagging indexes all held steady in October.Strong real money growth and lower unemployment claims in October offset weak consumer expectations and faster deliveries, as measured by vendor performance.The coincident index performance continues to suggest a recovering yet fragile economy. Industrial production has shed some of its gains from the first half of the year and nonagricultural employment has essentially remained unchanged. Moderate growth in personal income and manufacturing and trade sales continue to sustain economic growth.Although the leading index has been flat or declining over the past five months, it is only 0.2 percent below its level from April of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1510. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2002
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.6 percent in September.The leading index declined for the fourth consecutive month in September. This weakness has been primarily fueled by weak equity markets, a narrowing interest rate spread, and deteriorating consumer expectations.The six-month diffusion index of the leading index, which measures the proportion of components that are rising in a six-month span, is at 50 percent. Over the past several months, this index has continued to deteriorate, which is an indication of spreading weakness among the leading components.The coincident index continues to show a weak economic recovery. Industrial production and nonagricultural payrolls showed mild weakness in September but were offset by modest gains in income and manufacturing and trade sales.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1511. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2002
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in August.The leading index declined for the third month in a row in August. This was the first time in fifteen months that the six-month growth rate was negative.The weakness in the leading index was widespread, with a majority of the components showing declines.The coincident index continues to indicate a weak economic recovery. Industrial production declined for the first time this year and the other three components showed little improvement.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1512. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2002
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in July.Although the incorporated data revisions deepened the depth of the decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession, the decline of this index remains mild by historical standards. The decline from the peak of the coincident index in December 2000 to its trough in November 2001 is only 1.7 percent compared to an average decline of 3.3 percent from peak to trough in the previous six recessions.Modest gains in the coincident index in the last five months reflect the slow pace of the economic recovery. To date, the pre-recession peak of the coincident index has not yet been reached.Although the leading index declined in three of the last six months, its six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the components that are rising, remains above 50 percent. This month's decline in the leading index was primarily caused by weak equity markets and lower consumer expectations.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1513. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2002
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in June.Industrial production had its biggest gain this month since October 1998. This is the most significant factor that helped push the coincident index up in June. The index posted its largest increase in a six-month span since October 2000.The coincident index appears to be gaining momentum. While the index has not surpassed the previous peak in December 2000, it has been increasing or flat since the beginning of the year. To date, the index is less than 0.3 percent away from overtaking the December 2000 peak. Moreover, the gains in the index are well diffused. The one- and six-month diffusion for the coincident index have been above 50 percent for the past four months.Stock prices and consumer expectations are the primary components that are preventing the leading index from continuing its positive trend in June. The recent wave of questionable corporate practices and the lack of measures aimed at addressing them have largely contributed to the weakness in these two components.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1514. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2002
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May.The big jump in real money supply and initial claims for unemployment insurance were largely responsible for the leading index picking up in May. This marks the seventh increase in the leading index in the past eight months.The decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession was relatively modest. To date, the coincident index has only increased 0.4 percent from its lowest point in November 2001 compared to an average increase of 2.4 percent in the first six months of the past six recoveries.While the coincident index has been moderately improving, the lagging index has been steeply declining. This led to the seventh increase in the last eight months in the ratio of coincident to lagging index, a series that has historically led business cycles. This reinforces the continuation of the recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1515. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2002
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in April.Real money supply, which shrank for the second consecutive month, and falling stock prices are the primary components that caused the leading index to drop for the first time since September 2001. The overall signal from the leading index, however, remains one of moderate economic growth.Modest gains in the coincident index in the past five months indicate a slowly recuperating economy. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index underscores this economic recovery posting its biggest gain in 15 months.While improvements in current economic activity have been moderate, the cost of doing business, as represented by the lagging index, has been steeply declining. This points to continued improvement in economic conditions in the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1516. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2002
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in March The leading index has been posting strong gains, growing by 2.9 percent from September 2001 to March 2002, and by 2.2 percent for each of the six-month periods ending January and February 2002. The gains would have been more robust had it not been for the weakness in building permits and claims for unemployment insurance Gains in industrial production in the last three months, coupled with a recovery in employment, have helped push the coincident index up. Negative trends in these indicators were largely responsible for the decline in the coincident index last year. US economic recovery appears to be underway. The combination of rising energy prices, the current global instability, and the more cautious consumer and business sectors, however, might slow the pace of economic growth in the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1517. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2002
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in February. Even with a flat month-to-month growth in February, the leading index is still up 2.4 percent from its value six months ago in August 2001 and up 3.1 percent from its value a year ago. The modest gains in the coincident index appear to be gaining momentum. Should this trend continue, the trough of the recession would most likely be November 2001, making the most recent economic contraction very short and certainly the mildest in U.S. history. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fifth consecutive month in February. This is another signal that an economic recovery is underway.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1518. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2002
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.6 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in January. The leading index posted a robust 2.2 percent increase from July 2001 to January 2002. This is the fourth consecutive month that the six-month growth rate of the leading index has improved. Meanwhile, the six-month diffusion index, which measures the number of components that are rising, has increased above 50 percent for the first time in 21 months. With a robust leading index, the coincident index appears to be bottoming out in the past two months. The rate of decline of nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production has slowed in the last three and four months respectively while personal income and manufacturing sales have essentially held their ground throughout the recession. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fourth consecutive month in January. This underscores the strength of the leading index and indicates a likely economic recovery, barring any unexpected negative events.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1519. Global Economic Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America
1520. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
1521. Further Financial Services Liberalization in the Doha Round?
- Author:
- Wendy Dobson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent evidence demonstrates strong links between developing countries' long-term growth and financial reform. Deputy Treasury Secretary Kenneth Dam has suggested that developing countries can transform their domestic financial sectors into "engines of growth."
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
1522. Is Brazil Next?
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
1523. The Looming Japanese Crisis
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1524. Support the Ex-Im Bank: It Has Work to Do!
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1525. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts – or No Change?
- Author:
- Marcus Miller
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
1526. Inequality, Growth and Poverty in the Era of Liberalization and Globalization
- Author:
- Julius Court and Giovanni Andrea Cornia
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Eradicating poverty has become the international community's number one development objective. The overriding target—endorsed at the recent United Nations Millennium Summit by virtually all world leaders—is to reduce the incidence of income-poverty in developing countries from 30 percent to 15 percent between 1990 and 2015. The problem is that that further progress has stalled and the number of people living in poverty has remained at around 1.2 billion people—a fifth of the world's population.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Poverty
1527. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms
- Author:
- Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
1528. Trade in Goods and Services: Statistical Trends and Measurement Challenges
- Author:
- Andreas Lindner, Bill Cave, Lydia Deloumeaux, and Joscelyn Magdeleine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- International trade statistics play a vital part in OECD's monitoring, analysis and projections of macroeconomic developments in individual economies and the world economy. In response to these needs, OECD's Secretariat manages three trade in goods and services databases of which a very large merchandise trade database.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1529. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Chile
1530. APEC — Shanghai Accord
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Shanghai and Asia
1531. United States — Fiscal Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The president this week signed into law a 40 billion dollar emergency appropriations package in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks. The package forms part of considerable planned spending increases, which in combination with expected tax cuts, will result in the country's fiscal position deteriorating significantly. This will have important implications for Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and long-term global interest rates.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
1532. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1533. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia
1534. United States — Downturn Dilemmas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1535. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America
1536. International — Weather Derivatives
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Weather derivatives trading is undergoing exponential growth. The current size of the weather derivatives market is 8 billion dollars, and it is expected to grow to at least 300 billion dollars within a few years. The opportunity to reduce exposure to natural risks will be exploited by large corporate groups and, eventually, smaller players too. It is important for the future development of the weather market that players have confidence in their own ability to determine fair prices, and that of the market to deliver these. Such confidence will encourage liquidity in the market from the end-users. However, traditional derivatives exchanges may find it difficult to obtain volume (and hence liquidity) in weather markets.
- Topic:
- Economics and Science and Technology
1537. Japan — LDP Prognosis
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
1538. India — Arms Scandal
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
1539. Japan — Monetary Easing
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia
1540. Corruption and Globalization
- Author:
- Shang-Jin Wei
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- At least since the Asian financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, from time to time, included transparency and anti-corruption measures as part of the conditions for countries to borrow its funds. Because of this, it has been criticized as having overstepped its mandate, or even having made crises worse in countries the IMF is supposed to help.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Asia
1541. Options for Stabilization Policy: A New Analysis of Choices Confronting the Fed
- Author:
- William T. Dickens, George A. Akerlof, and George L. Perry
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- One of the most important choices any president-elect must make is how to organize and staff the National Security Council (NSC). Chief executives from John Fitzgerald Kennedy to William Jefferson Clinton have found their foreign policy held hostage to the management choices they made between election and inauguration.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1542. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century
- Author:
- Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
1543. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt
- Author:
- Amy W. Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
1544. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
1545. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong
1546. Step Up U.S. Involvement In Turkish Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both seemingly floundering, Turkey likely would welcome suggestions on how to proceed, and the United States would do well to send a special high-level representative to Ankara for several days, as a source of informal advice and as a powerful symbol of U.S. support.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and Middle East
1547. Bahrain's National Charter And Political Reform In The Gulf
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamad's reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the Gulf kingdoms toward the establishment of representative institutions. However, Bahrain's proposed reforms are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to address the political and economic discontent among Bahrain's Shia majority.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Bahrain
1548. Syria Under Bashar Al-Asad: The Domestic Scene And The 'Chinese Model' Of Reform
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This is the first of two PolicyWatch pieces about Syria under Bashar al-Asad. This article examines the domestic situation in Syria; the next article will look at Syrian foreign policy.On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding — inter alia — freedom of expression, release of political prisoners, and an end to martial law in place since 1963. A similar such petition, published in September with ninety-nine signers, has evidently sparked a broader movement. And on January 20, the first-ever elections for many positions within Bashar al-Asad's Baath Party will be held.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Syria
1549. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2001
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 1.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in December.The increase in the leading index in December is the largest gain since February of 1996. With this month's gain, the leading index has increased for three consecutive months bringing the index level above the pre-recession peak.The leading index continues to be driven by the expansionary monetary policy initiatives of the Federal Reserve. This is further strengthened by a rebound in the employment and expectations components in recent months.The coincident index's gain this month is the first in five months. This, coupled with a robust leading index, indicates that the economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gathering momentum.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1550. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2001
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.7 percent in November. Gains in the financial, housing and expectations components propelled the leading index up in November for a second consecutive month. Should this pattern in the leading index continue, an economic recovery in the first half of next year may be possible. The coincident index continued to weaken as industrial production declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months while nonagricultural employees declined in six of the last eight months. Compared to the coincident index's average decline of 3.3 percent in the previous six recessions, the current decline has been relatively shallow. To date, the coincident index has declined by only 1.4 percent from its peak of 117.1 in December 2000.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1551. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2001
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in October.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1552. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2001
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in September. The composite indexes and their components suggest that the widespread weakness in the U.S. economy is becoming deeper.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1553. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2001
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index remained flat, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in August. The composite indexes and their components suggest weakening conditions in the U.S. economy going into the end of the third quarter, just prior to the attack on September 11, 2001.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1554. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2001
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.7 percent in July. The composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions may be improving relative to the first quarter of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1555. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2001
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.8 percent in June. The outlook for the U.S. economy remains fragile despite recent gains in the leading index. However, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions have improved relative to the end of 2000.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1556. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2001
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- New York, NY, June 20, 2001 - The Conference Board today announced that the leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the period of slow growth in the U.S. economy will continue in the next few months.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1557. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2001
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to suggest slow growth through the summer of 2001.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1558. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2001
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest slow growth until late in the second quarter of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1559. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2001
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show not only that there is no sign of a recession looming on the horizon, but that economic activity continues to grow, although more moderately.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1560. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2001
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.8 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show that the pace of economic activity is moderating, with no clear sign of a recession looming on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1561. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
1562. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1563. An Emerging Populist Threat?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On May 14, Jackson Diehl, the deputy foreign editor of the Washington Post, raised an intriguing question in an op-ed for that newspaper: Is Latin America about to “drift back toward its one-time status as semi-hostile territory for the United States”? Some of the evidence he cited was certainly enough to give pause. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, that country’s former Marxist president—voted out of office in 1990—seemed poised to finally regain power later this year. In Peru, Alan García, the leftist-populist windbag—the consummate Latin demagogue, almost a caricature of the type—who drove his country to the verge of collapse in the 1980s, has reemerged as a presidential possibility in a runoff scheduled for June 3. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perennial standard-bearer of the Left, is leading in the polls for next year’s presidential race. “Even in El Salvador,” Diehl writes, President Bush “may see the election of former FMLN guerrillas.” As to Venezuela, the machinations of its president, Hugo Chávez, hardly require comment; he makes no secret of the fact that his principal foreign policy objective is to forge a new, worldwide, anti-U.S. alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
1564. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1565. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics
- Author:
- Manfred Gerstenfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
1566. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1567. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
1568. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada
1569. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
1570. Mexico — Overheating Arguments
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
1571. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
1572. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
1573. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
1574. International -- World Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
1575. United States — Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1576. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
1577. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
1578. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
1579. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
1580. East Europe—Bullish Markets
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
1581. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and Hong Kong
1582. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
1583. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
1584. Gas For Oil Markets
- Author:
- Koji Morita
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1585. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism
- Author:
- Chen Yixin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
1586. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1587. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1588. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1589. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1590. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1591. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1592. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1593. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1594. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1595. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1596. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1597. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1598. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes
- Author:
- Colonel Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
1599. Defense Monitor: Landmines Remain Issue in Korea
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Three years ago the international community joined forces to ban landmines. While the majority of the countries of the world worked to reach an agreement, several countries remained opposed to the effort. Nonetheless, today the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 95. The Treaty entered into force in March 1999, becoming binding international law more quickly than any treaty in history.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Ottawa
1600. Defense Monitor: The NPT Review — Last Chance?
- Author:
- Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Just five years ago the United States led a strong global effort to achieve indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970 which was due to expire on its 25th anniversary in April, 1995. U.S. leaders exerted substantial diplomatic pressure on nations less than enthusiastic about extending the NPT regime in order to ensure perpetuation of this critically important element of the global arms control structure, one very much in U.S. security interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States